cheka.
14th January 2020, 07:28 AM
wtf :|~
https://www.policeone.com/chiefs-sheriffs/articles/dallas-police-plan-to-use-new-predictive-technology-to-address-rising-crime-rate-hQzO78wZLc5c9vOW/
DALLAS — A casual glance at a crime map of Dallas suggests the violence that barreled through the city last year was aimless.
But a more detailed look at North Dallas reveals a high-risk setting for gun violence stems in part from a concentration of used-goods stores, apartment complexes and car washes. In southeast Dallas, the constellation of motels, gas stations and pharmacies serves as another prime location.
Those conclusions were based on an analysis by the Child Poverty Action Lab, a Dallas-based nonprofit focused on improving the lives of kids. The organization released its findings exclusively to The Dallas Morning News.
The data comes from emerging predictive police technology known as risk terrain modeling. The thesis behind the algorithm, developed during the last decade by two Rutgers University professors, is that environmental factors have an outsize influence on crime and that small informed changes to neighborhoods can prevent it.
Dallas police are set to embrace risk terrain modeling this year as part of their overall effort to reduce crime. The new way of thinking about prevention focuses on places, rather than people. It’s in part an answer to a critique that predictive policing carries too much racial and socioeconomic bias.
Chief U. Reneé Hall is scheduled to brief the Dallas City Council’s public safety committee on her crime prevention plan. Hall’s new-look approach relies heavily on data and intensifying existing programs. Adopting risk terrain modeling, which includes a partnership with the lab, is one of the starkest departures from the Dallas Police Department’s status quo.
Hall’s presentation follows the release of a companion plan by Mayor Eric Johnson, who last week unveiled a list of non-law enforcement solutions developed by a committee of community members to help stem crime.
The formal plans, some of which will need funding from City Hall, were born of one of Dallas’ most violent years in recent memory. The city recorded more than 200 murders in 2019 — a 12-year high.
Alan Cohen, CEO of the lab, believes risk terrain modeling will provide police and the community better data to prevent crime without leading to more arrests, a key goal for his nonprofit.
Given Dallas’ massive geography, the lab divided the city into the Police Department’s seven patrol areas. It then separated those sections into thousands of 250-square-foot cells, each of which was assigned a risk score based on the proximity of different factors.
The lab used 2018 aggravated assaults and spatial features of each city block. It then compared high-risk places to 2019 data. The model accurately predicted between 17.5% and 51.8% where gun violence occurred in 2019.
The range varies based on neighborhoods and types of crime the model aims to predict.
For example, the lab’s model accurately forecast 18% of aggravated assaults with a gun in downtown and 45% of individual robberies in northeast Dallas.
The model’s accuracy increases after adding a 400-foot perimeter, or the length of a typical city block. For instance, 48% of all 2019 aggravated assaults with a gun in downtown occurred within the larger perimeter and 73% of all individual robberies in northeast Dallas happened in the expanded area.
The Kansas City Police Department began to use risk terrain modeling last year in an effort to reduce violent crime.
In one example, police identified a pattern of robberies and drug deals in an area on a busy boulevard that included a bus stop, pay-as-you-go cell phone shops and liquor stores. Working with the city’s public transit department, a bus stop was relocated.
Crime fell overnight, Capt. Jonas Baughman told The News. Violent crime since April has dropped across Kansas City between 5% and 59% — depending on the region — compared to a two-year average.
There is no comprehensive list of cities, police departments or nonprofits that have used risk terrain modeling because the code is open source — available to anyone. However, Dallas is likely to be one of the largest in population and land size to embrace the technology.
That gives Larry James, CEO of CitySquare, a nonprofit that assists the city’s working poor, pause.
There have been similar, albeit smaller, efforts that rely on multiple city agencies to reduce crime. The city attorney’s office regularly coordinates with police, fire and code enforcement to clean up properties. As part of their work, they use research known as crime prevention through environmental design. Small changes such as more and better lighting and keeping bushes tightly trimmed are examples of changes they may require from a property owner.
The city doesn’t have data on how the cross-coordinated effort is working, she said. However, a study by two professors from the University of Texas at Dallas found enforcing city codes did lead to a reduction in crime.
Supporters of risk terrain modeling acknowledge that change is hard, especially for institutions with long-standing traditions and norms. It likely will be a challenge for Dallas police, which has in the recent past suffered from low morale and waning trust from the public.
"Skepticism can be healthy, but that doesn’t mean the status quo is the best option,” said Caplan, the Rutgers professor. “When these stakeholders are coordinated, pretty amazing things can happen.”
https://www.policeone.com/chiefs-sheriffs/articles/dallas-police-plan-to-use-new-predictive-technology-to-address-rising-crime-rate-hQzO78wZLc5c9vOW/
DALLAS — A casual glance at a crime map of Dallas suggests the violence that barreled through the city last year was aimless.
But a more detailed look at North Dallas reveals a high-risk setting for gun violence stems in part from a concentration of used-goods stores, apartment complexes and car washes. In southeast Dallas, the constellation of motels, gas stations and pharmacies serves as another prime location.
Those conclusions were based on an analysis by the Child Poverty Action Lab, a Dallas-based nonprofit focused on improving the lives of kids. The organization released its findings exclusively to The Dallas Morning News.
The data comes from emerging predictive police technology known as risk terrain modeling. The thesis behind the algorithm, developed during the last decade by two Rutgers University professors, is that environmental factors have an outsize influence on crime and that small informed changes to neighborhoods can prevent it.
Dallas police are set to embrace risk terrain modeling this year as part of their overall effort to reduce crime. The new way of thinking about prevention focuses on places, rather than people. It’s in part an answer to a critique that predictive policing carries too much racial and socioeconomic bias.
Chief U. Reneé Hall is scheduled to brief the Dallas City Council’s public safety committee on her crime prevention plan. Hall’s new-look approach relies heavily on data and intensifying existing programs. Adopting risk terrain modeling, which includes a partnership with the lab, is one of the starkest departures from the Dallas Police Department’s status quo.
Hall’s presentation follows the release of a companion plan by Mayor Eric Johnson, who last week unveiled a list of non-law enforcement solutions developed by a committee of community members to help stem crime.
The formal plans, some of which will need funding from City Hall, were born of one of Dallas’ most violent years in recent memory. The city recorded more than 200 murders in 2019 — a 12-year high.
Alan Cohen, CEO of the lab, believes risk terrain modeling will provide police and the community better data to prevent crime without leading to more arrests, a key goal for his nonprofit.
Given Dallas’ massive geography, the lab divided the city into the Police Department’s seven patrol areas. It then separated those sections into thousands of 250-square-foot cells, each of which was assigned a risk score based on the proximity of different factors.
The lab used 2018 aggravated assaults and spatial features of each city block. It then compared high-risk places to 2019 data. The model accurately predicted between 17.5% and 51.8% where gun violence occurred in 2019.
The range varies based on neighborhoods and types of crime the model aims to predict.
For example, the lab’s model accurately forecast 18% of aggravated assaults with a gun in downtown and 45% of individual robberies in northeast Dallas.
The model’s accuracy increases after adding a 400-foot perimeter, or the length of a typical city block. For instance, 48% of all 2019 aggravated assaults with a gun in downtown occurred within the larger perimeter and 73% of all individual robberies in northeast Dallas happened in the expanded area.
The Kansas City Police Department began to use risk terrain modeling last year in an effort to reduce violent crime.
In one example, police identified a pattern of robberies and drug deals in an area on a busy boulevard that included a bus stop, pay-as-you-go cell phone shops and liquor stores. Working with the city’s public transit department, a bus stop was relocated.
Crime fell overnight, Capt. Jonas Baughman told The News. Violent crime since April has dropped across Kansas City between 5% and 59% — depending on the region — compared to a two-year average.
There is no comprehensive list of cities, police departments or nonprofits that have used risk terrain modeling because the code is open source — available to anyone. However, Dallas is likely to be one of the largest in population and land size to embrace the technology.
That gives Larry James, CEO of CitySquare, a nonprofit that assists the city’s working poor, pause.
There have been similar, albeit smaller, efforts that rely on multiple city agencies to reduce crime. The city attorney’s office regularly coordinates with police, fire and code enforcement to clean up properties. As part of their work, they use research known as crime prevention through environmental design. Small changes such as more and better lighting and keeping bushes tightly trimmed are examples of changes they may require from a property owner.
The city doesn’t have data on how the cross-coordinated effort is working, she said. However, a study by two professors from the University of Texas at Dallas found enforcing city codes did lead to a reduction in crime.
Supporters of risk terrain modeling acknowledge that change is hard, especially for institutions with long-standing traditions and norms. It likely will be a challenge for Dallas police, which has in the recent past suffered from low morale and waning trust from the public.
"Skepticism can be healthy, but that doesn’t mean the status quo is the best option,” said Caplan, the Rutgers professor. “When these stakeholders are coordinated, pretty amazing things can happen.”