Prepare

[ziero0]

Just my take.

Simple things work. Complicated things fail.

The only ones at fault are the ones who come up with complicated systems when simple solutions exist.

Why do complicated things fail? It is called the binomial coefficient.


The binomial coefficient n choose r tells you how many success-failure sequences, of the set of all possible sequences, will result in exactly r successes. The probability of each of those individual sequences happening is just prqn-r

A complicated system only works when every individual element works. If any single element fails the system is not going to work. Each element has a probability attached that tell you what percentage of the time it is working and what percentage of the time it has failed. A single failure results in a crippled system.

You might affect the outcome of this experiment by making elements more reliable. Better maintenance. Less throughput and less stress. Design factors such as more durable materials. Inventory so that repairs are quicker.

Or you might just select a solution that relies upon fewer components.

Society in the U.S. has achieved a level of complexity that has no probability of ever working. Something will always fail. Today it is infant formula. Yesterday it was Roe v Wade. Last year it was Biden and before him was Trump.

Probability gets you every time. Perhaps the Amish have it right?

[osoab]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10227883108966066&id=1321286546


*Philip Neuemier*


We have roughly 6 weeks before the next fed hike and certainly not the
last, in that time the market will have to price that in and that means
shit is coming our way and not stopping.

The fed has lied practically the whole way through, they only have one
mission and that is to retain dollar strength. Rate raises =
unemployment. Rate raises drop home values and unfortunately that is
needed but the fed is not being aggressive enough and it's going screw
the majority of the people over.

Gas is not dropping anytime soon, the 9/11 info release last week was a
scare/intimidation tactic to show Saudi Arabia we are holding cards and
to limit oil supplies to Russia and China. Why? Saudi King is dyeing and
the new king may be more willing to work with Russia and China by not
using the US dollar as payment.

Around September Russia has this idea to cut off everyone from
everything with the exception of Turkey and Serbia. This is going to
drive migrants into Europe and cause all sorts of issues. We can start
with food shortages for these folks.

This is what they will try to do.. your imagination can sort out the
rest on how it effects our supplies, our energy, our dollar. Be ready.

One thing is folks who are buying houses on that 3% down gig and don't
have tons of the skin in the game or variable rates, you will be first
on the chopping block.

There is zero soft landing by the feds they are lieing and they cannot
make it work without burning the majority of middle and poor class.

Quantitative Tightening is in works too and this will remove liquidity.
This will help with inflation but screw up some markets and risks a
recessionary times as QT does not guarantee a QE reversal but at the
same time can tank the price of your assets.. your house. So the 3%
folks who pull equity may be caught up in a life time of loan payments
and never escape. The FED has no idea what QT will do yet it's gonna happen.

Your 401ks are fucked by the way if you haven't notice and for this I
have very little advice. The feds relies on soft hands and people
getting scared and then cashing out and loan against what they can just
for the elites to swoop in and buy you out, wait it out, and then 100x
you as you die barely able to be independent. I do not have enough data
to say one way or another what to do. If the fed fails the dollar fails
and inflation happens, if the fed succeeds inflation happens. I suggest
if you have a retirement plan to contact them and find out what their
plan is for either one of the cases. Each 401k can include different
equities and since they are all different I have zero recommendations.

I don't want to get into shortages here, just if you're concerned maybe
add a few little things into your cart next time you're shopping.
Because things will keep going up and the fed and president are too slow
to respond. Actually it's not too slow, it's by choice.

Gas prices affect everything, shipping problems.. etc

Country allegiances will be causing issues. NATO will be stirring the
pot crazily

Migrant issues will be causing issues. (starting in Europe)

China, Taiwan, Japan, North Korea.. It's gonna happen

This dumb AF war will be causing issues. News flash! Ukraine and Russia
were always shit countries. (Not the people necessarily but the
governments) There is no real reason to post your support for any side
other than that is what the electrical device in front of you tells you
to do and how to feel . The amount of spending is out of control on this
war and puts us (U.S.) in jeopardy, we only get involved in wars and
famine if it benefits the US. 100's of other countries could use support
for famine and war torn places. Think really deep why we give a shit
about the Ukraine and why and next time you turn on your phone or TV
think about how you are being told to feel. The Ukraine could have
avoided this conflict If they wanted, but this war is more beneficial to
EVERY GOVERNMENT involved. ( the people always pay the price even if
it's not you being shot at)

The US government is relying on more of us screwing up financially than
not, then banding the screwed ones together to grab backing and support
for... fed coin and a whole host of new "policies" headed our way.
Policies that if you are part of, the ones who messed up financially,
you will embrace because you will be put in a corner.

The fed cannot keep the dollar strong while wages are this high and that
many jobs are available, it's the reason no higher wage laws can easily
pass, each side knows what happens. So the the FED needs unemployment
number to go up and wages down. Right now there are too many jobs available

Middle class folks, good luck to us all.

Psychologically and financially strong will be the only way any of you
come out of this.

I'd Comment on crypto but the ones in control are already showing you
what they can do.

Your next crisis already started, diesel rationing begins in 2 weeks
with reserves to be depleted shortly there after. Online orders,
restocking In the stores shipments etc all will be bottle necked. Panic
porn.. it's real. Point to Point transport supply chain issue. Your
normal gas also will go up higher becuase well it takes diesel to
transport your fuel. Probable $9 gallon for diesel in the coming weeks
to months (2)

But also if you don't care, Amber and Johnny is nice escape and whatever
other distractions pop-up, I imagine many in the next few months should
increase attention value. Im serious here, there will be some really
captivating things coming our way. Intel releases too, ohh my this years
intel drops are going to be fun and distracting.

BE Ready! (But also remember narrative moves faster than what actually
is happening)

Not every thing is doom and gloom, just some things to think of that are
coming our way. Everything happens in cycles. Good things and happiness
is still there. There are plenty of happy things to read into the future
this post just is not one of "those" feel good posts. No more prediction
posts until 2023, I've been discussing things out of relevance to you,
your family, mine and only posting to keep a time stamped track record
and not for an "I told you so moment" Feel free to chime in below with
thoughts, I'm not afraid to be wrong and more information can be useful
as I do not know everything.

[ziero0]

When you are swimming with gators it is easy to forget you are here to drain the swamp.

Not unexpectedly the gators object to their home being drained.

Your body is full of parasites. But you don't have a problem until a malignant one takes command. Ergo: FAUCI

[ziero0]

Another observation. A system that is poorly designed will work for a bit but only when resources are constantly thrown at it.

This has to do with eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system as modelled mathematically. Every system has naturally occurring response curves based on the location of Poles and Ziero0s. You might design a system poorly but get it to work for a while when you throw resources at it. This throwing of resources makes the desired product much more expensive and ultimately the system will fail. Nobody at fault except perhaps the designer who created it, the manager who approved it and the people who hung in there for dear life trying to make something impractical work.