If we are wrong, why are we wrong?

[Sock Puppy]

O.K. guys, here is the burning question:

We all believe in something........I believe in the concept of peak oil for instance....most of us believe the fed reserve system is going to go bust in the near future. Many of us think the whole world system is going to go TU tomorrow (WTSHTF). Many of us have bought gold, guns, and preps in anticipation of TSHTF.

BUT, I expected it all to happen by now and I'm wondering if I just might be wrong. Is believing in such stuff just another form of dogma? Do we somehow NEED the system to fail because we want it to? Do humans have some sort of a need to know something that others don't know?

Sorry to wax philosophical on y'all, but do you challenge your own beliefs? We all know of others who believe in some pretty squirrelly stuff who we think are nuts? Are we just lesser nutcases than those folks? (I don't believe so, but if I'm a nutcase, how would I know?)

If we are wrong, why are we wrong?

--Pup

[Book]

Are we just lesser nutcases than those folks?


What's this "we" shit?

This is your first post.

Your name seems to suit you...lol.

[bob681]

I ask myself all the time what if I am wrong. I always go back to the same question. What can be done to fix or stop this? Will we come up with products we can make here that can't be made over seas cheaper (only if we lower our wages here) who is going to rent all the vacant commercial buildings around here ( there is a sign for warehouse space just down the road from me 1 million sq ft for lease it has been there over a year now).
Has fiat money ever lasted ? What happens when more people work for the government than in the public sector? Has there ever been a pyramid scheme that worked? I guess I didn't answer your question but your question just seems to bring out more questions in me. I guess my answer would be I just can't see how I could be wrong.

[Sock Puppy]

Are we just lesser nutcases than those folks?


What's this "we" sh*t?

This is your first post.

Your name seems to suit you...lol.


It was a question, theoretical, you know.

Humorous nym, serious queston. Sorry, I didn't mean to rattle you. I've posted before under my GIM nym, but decided to crush it and use this instead.

Are others also offended by my new nym?

--Willie

[Book]

It was a question, theoretical, you know.


http://www.accessrx.com/blog/files/media/image/Dr.%20Cannon%20Women-Therapist.jpg

Tell us all about your inner thoughts...how you feel so.......wrong.

:D

[Hellsbane]

Are we just lesser nutcases than those folks?


What's this "we" sh*t?

This is your first post.

Your name seems to suit you...lol.


It was a question, theoretical, you know.

Humorous nym, serious queston. Sorry, I didn't mean to rattle you. I've posted before under my GIM nym, but decided to crush it and use this instead.

Are others also offended by my nym?

--Willie



Love the nym. As to your question........... i am NEVER wrong............... well........... ALMOST never..................... alright, alright............ i am sometimes wrong......................... OK DAMNIT!!.......... so i am never right........ JUST GET OFF MY BACK ALREADY!!

[Heimdhal]

Are we just lesser nutcases than those folks?


What's this "we" sh*t?

This is your first post.

Your name seems to suit you...lol.


It was a question, theoretical, you know.

Humorous nym, serious queston. Sorry, I didn't mean to rattle you. I've posted before under my GIM nym, but decided to crush it and use this instead.

Are others also offended by my nym?

--Willie


Im mostly offended by the word Nym. We aint greek, were amurikans damnit.



Im just teasing ya.

I do often wonder "what if I'm wrong" as well. We've got preious ltitle income do to me being unable to work right now and with my 2 1/2 year old I constantly have to wonder if Im doing the right thing; for her, for my wife, for me, for our future.

But if you think too long on it you will be sacred into inaction and that can be worse than being wrong.

[uranian]

Has fiat money ever lasted ?

works for me, that one. when there's no precedent for something that's been tried a few dozen times, a different outcome is possible, but extremely unlikely. specially in light of the mathematical certainty that fiat lent at interest has to expand exponentially just to keep working.

[Hellsbane]

Has fiat money ever lasted ?

works for me, that one. when there's no precedent for something that's been tried a few dozen times, a different outcome is possible, but extremely unlikely. specially in light of the mathematical certainty that fiat lent at interest has to expand exponentially just to keep working.


Gotta love that debt structured monetary system.

[Ponce]

Puppy? as soon as the oil of an oil producing country goes below X amount then they will stop selling it to foreign countries because they will need it for themselves.

I believe that in the short term (50-75 years) there will be NO REAL SHORTAGE of oil in the US, but the US will control output of the same hence the price.......there is plenty of oil off the coast and in Alaska.

They sell us their oil at their price and when they no longer have any the the US will sell theirs at THEIR PRICE.........what goes around comes around.

[Sock Puppy]

Ponce-

We'll have to agree to disagree on the point of peak oil. I believe in the concept of Peak Oil. Not just because it sounds good, but because I've done extensive research on the subject. Just like I've done extensive research on the fiat money system we're working under (as I presume you have).

Could I be wrong? Sure! But I don't think so. But how would I know? That is why I started this thread.

I think that peak oil is the key to the whole mess. The economic slump saved us from facing humongous oil prices. If the economy tries to recover, oil prices will kick it right in the face and send it back.

We'll know if peak oil is a problem in a couple of years, so it won't be long before we know which of us is right.

--Pup

[mick silver]

oil is the new gold to alot of country . and i also think if the price was to jump to a high price i think we could see this game start all over again ... i am glad to see someone else asking the what ifffssss

[sunshine05]

Well, I want to be wrong. I just can't think of any possible way out of this mess. But I think there is a lot of behind the scenes manipulation going on. I think gold prices should be much higher. I don't think there's any telling what they are capable of to try to keep this economy propped up. I think we're in unchartered territory. So, yes I think the dollar will crash and we will see civil unrest, but it's just so hard to know when.

I'm really starting to see more and more signs of things falling apart. I tried to take my 5 year old shoe shopping today and the store was closed. A different shoe store in another part of town closed a couple months ago. So I was left with Target. They had very low stock, small selection and not the right sizes. I'm finding this more often now that I can't easily get what I need. Strip malls now are typically half empty. I'm amazed at how quickly small businesses are closing up shop. Plus I'm seeing a lot more panhandlers lately. I think things will keep declining this way.

[Sock Puppy]

Sunshine,

For what it's worth, I want to be wrong, too.

I have a number of friends who say that they can't entertain the thought of having to prep and make lifestyle changes for when TSHTF. They say that to entertain that negativity might just bring it on. I say we have to deal with reality and pull our heads out our........well you get the picture.

Despite all my studies, I just can't figure out exactly what tack the whole mess is going to take. There are too many players involved. Are we going to have martial law? Will they again outlaw the ownership of gold? Will we have a war with China? With there be rioting in the streets? etc., etc.

Not knowing exactly the direction things are going makes thing difficult to prepare for, but holding hands and singing kumbaya doesn't seem to cut it with me.

--Pup

[Ponce]

Because we made everything dependent on oil as soon the price goes up that will be the start of WTSHTF, here in my Micky Mouse of a town gas is now at $3.18.

The higher the price the less people that will be able to afford to go out everyday to look for a job plus the less traffic on the roads........that will be good for CA and other congested areas of the nation.

I for one only go out to buy milk and bread about once a week and at the same time giving Ponce a break from cooking something and eating outside......I hate his food.

By the way.........in one week.......two local tourist shops and one of the two Chinese restaurants has closed down......more empty houses and more cars for sale.......also the bulletin board at our only grocery store has more 3X5 cards from people selling stuff......about three of them for guns.......and also more people (men and women) looking for any type of work.

Hush Puppy......I can tell you how long is going to last......FOR EVER.

We were able to recover from the 1928 depression because 68% of American were farmers so that there was food.......also, the world wanted anything made in America and 87% of what we made was FOR EXPORT.....and something else, WWII gave every American that wanted to work a job.

Now.......only 1% or less of Americans are farmes.........Just about anything made in American can be made overseas, cheaper and some times better.......and our war needs are either made overseas or in the US by robot machines.

By the time that everything settles down it will be a new US.....and something else, by 2050 there will be lees whites.

[sunshine05]

Yeah, it's hard to imagine what it could end up like here. I do see civil unrest and then martial law. That is when the food preps will be good to have, as well as guns/ammo to protect your family against looting. I see things in the news (which I am highly suspect of everything they put in the news now) but this thing with the governors being threatened. I think it could easily be a false flag and I think "they" are trying to provoke people to start something and then it will be easy to implement martial law. And the militia groups are another example. Who knows if any of it is true. It seems they can do anything they want. I am suspect of everything in the news these days.

[Ponce]

Here in my small town most of the people are on welfare and food stamps, I am sorry to say that many of them are on drugs and whisky.

I have already been told that I will be a target so that I have prepear accordingly, because we won't have the Sheriff Department to protect us the City Mayor told I me that if I were to be invaded to go ahead and shoot and that he would take care of the "problem".

[Saul Mine]

I have an engineering background, so being wrong has always been just another calculation. It's called tolerance, as in "How much wrong will you tolerate?" In finance the same concept is called diversification, although most people in finance have little understanding of underlying concepts. In engineering you design a feedback that will adjust your system to stay within your desired tolerance. In finance you buy something that will move opposite to your main investment so that you don't lose everything in one move.

As for timing, that is mostly unpredictable. I expected the country to collapse 30 years ago. Various analysts were predicting it 40 years ago. Historically, fiat currencies have collapsed within 40 years of their introduction, so the USD should have been toast in the 50s. Any way you count it our collapse is up to a hundred years over due. But that doesn't mean it can be avoided.

[Ponce]

I have my own underducated name for it............. the plan behind the plan behind the plan, and it works great.

One of the things that I do is play the game of "What would happen if?" and then do something about it.

"To think and not do, is like not thinking at all"... Ponce <----- a new one lol.

[Sock Puppy]

I have my own underducated name for it............. the plan behind the plan behind the plan, and it works great.

One of the things that I do is play the game of "What would happen if?" and then do something about it.

"To think and not do, is like not thinking at all"... Ponce <----- a new one lol.


Well, Ponce, I'm all with you on this one.

I guess I should coun't my lucky stars that things didn't go TU as fast as I expected. It gave me more time to prep.

--Pup