Earthquake Prediction Models

[steveoc]

OK, Ive been watching this guy on youtube for a while, who has this bizarre theory about predicting earthquakes from watching solar activity.

The theory is based on the premise that the image of the face of the Sun is sort of a 'reflection' of what is happening on the surface of the earth, but offset in some way in the time dimension. He explains it on his videos, and it doesnt make a whole pile of sense at first (or at second, or at third for that matter).

Anyway, the reason he keeps getting views is that his earthquake predictions are absolutely spot on, down to the exact latitude of the event, and usually correct within a few hours.

Well he has done it again now, and accurately predicted today's little 6.3 ground shaker near Near Lae New Guinea.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXmUadhp_uM

It quite amazing. I dont profess to understand his reasoning, so I can't make a comment on his methods ... but its really interesting if you subscribe to the channel and get the 'forecasts' and then compare them with reality.

I really can't tell if he is coming at it from a hard scientific angle (with a very non-conventional model). Really interested in hearing comments on this - but first do yourself a favour and follow the predictions / results for a bit before drawing any conclusions.

Thanks

[keehah]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Earthquake-counts-go-up-as-moon-comes-closer-to-earth/Article1-615915.aspx

BARC scientists made an attempt to realign the earthquake data from standard catalogs for 36 years (1973-2008), to the different periodicities of the moon to check if any consistent patterns emerge out of this exercise, Kolvankar said...

For earthquakes aligned to apogee-perigee-apogee (APA) cycles, the increase in the number of earthquakes counts from apogee to perigee was observed for earthquake magnitude range of 4-6 on the Richter scale.

Among the different 12 years periods (1973-1984, 1985-1996 and 1997-2008), this feature was noticed in all plots but more predominantly observed in the last period, probably due to much higher earthquake counts.

I noticed a very strong correlation for the first 3 or 4 months of the year with strongest earthquakes within a day or two of the full moon. I recall a thread on deadGIM when I was making successful predictions from just this observation last winter. Then not so much. The data shows that the moon has not been as close to the earth since. This may explain why then and not the rest of the year. It would appear both a full moon, and the moon being closest to earth were triggers, not just a full moon.

Lunar Perigee and Apogee Calculator (http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html)

[keehah]

The theory is based on the premise that the image of the face of the Sun is sort of a 'reflection' of what is happening on the surface of the earth, but offset in some way in the time dimension.

Watched some of the OP video, but never really saw an explanation. I he building from the basics? Since the sun is bigger and more energetic than the earth, lets agree the surface of the earth can be a 'reflection' of what is happening on the surface of the sun. So it is obvious that a sunspot CME ejection directed at earth will affect earth.

To understand the 'sort of' one must realize the sun is turning, so the sun interacts with earth through a swastika pattern

http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/EP-177/i3-6.jpg

Just as if you are spinning in a circle and you want to toss a ball to a 'stationary' friend (in earth's case moving 1/12 the rotational rate) , you need to throw it at a spot a few feet ahead of your friend for it to hit your friend.

[keehah]

A statistically significant correlation with solar and space weather has long been suspected and this paper has found a solar weather variable that significantly correlates with terrestrial earthquakes.


ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles: On the correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7359343/)

Published online 2020 Jul 13
Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognized to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant correlation of the global seismicity with one of the possible mechanisms has been demonstrated yet. In this paper, we analyze 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the SOHO satellite, and the worldwide seismicity in the corresponding period, as reported by the ISC-GEM catalogue. We found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence of large earthquakes (M > 5.6), with a time shift of one day...

Worldwide seismicity does not follow a Poisson distribution, not even locally. Many authors have proposed specific statistical distributions to describe such a non-poissonian behavior but none of these is really satisfactory, probably because the underlying physical process has not been really understood...

In this paper, we will definitively establish the existence of a correlation between solar activity and global seismicity, using a long data set and rigorous statistical analysis. Once such a correlation is demonstrated, we propose a tentative, at the moment qualitative, mechanism of possible sun–earthquakes interaction...

In conclusion, the analysis of the 1996–2016 worldwide earthquake catalogue shows a significant correlation with the measured proton density in the same period. Such correlation is described by a larger probability for earthquakes to occur during time windows 24 h long just after a peak period (meant as a period spent over a certain threshold) in proton density due to solar activity. This kind of correlation between worldwide seismicity and solar activity has been checked also with other variables linked to solar activity, including proton velocity, dynamical pressure of protons, proton flux, and proton density. However, a significant correlation can be only observed with proton flux, besides proton density. ..

Once a strong correlation between proton density, generated by solar wind, and large earthquakes worldwide has been assessed, the next step is to verify if a physical mechanism exists which could explain such a result. Several mechanisms have been proposed, till now, for solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes (see 26 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7359343/#CR26) for a review)...

Our observed correlation implies that a high electric potential sometimes occurs between the ionosphere, charged by the high proton density generated at higher distances, and the Earth. Such a high potential could generate, both in a direct way or determining, by electrical induction, alterations of the normal underground potential, an electrical discharge, channeled at depth by large faults, which represent preferential, highly conductive channels. Such electrical current, passing through the fault, would generate, by reverse piezoelectric effect, a strain/stress pulse, which, added to the fault loading and changing the total Coulomb stress, could destabilize the fault favoring its rupture. The reverse piezoelectric effect would be due, in rocks, by the quartz minerals abundant in them. Such effect can work, in principle, for all kinds of faults. The piezoelectric effect, in fact, acts to produce a pulse of dilatation or contraction on a particular axis of the crystal, depending on the polarity of the electrical current. For quartz crystals randomly distributed on a fault surface of any orientation, the net effect is a pulse of strain/stress normal to the fault, because the other strain/stress components compensate among them into the bulk rocks. The normal stress can stabilize or destabilize any kind of fault, depending on the sign; however, since it is a transient pulse, it has an effect only in case it is able to instantaneously increase the total Coulomb stress on a given fault above the fracture strength, thus generating the earthquake. It would then represent only a small destabilizing effect over an already critically loaded fault. So, the earthquake cycle would be anyway dominated by tectonic phenomena, but this small external triggering effect could generate the observed slight correlation among worldwide earthquakes. These kinds of effects, induced by high electrical potential between the ionosphere and the Earth, should likely be accompanied by electrical discharges in atmosphere, which would cause luminescence phenomena. Actually, there are numerous observations of macroscopic luminescence phenomena (named Earthquake Lights) before and accompanying large earthquakes. Moreover, these phenomena could also cause strong electromagnetic effects, which would be recorded as radio-waves; even such phenomena have been largely reported as accompanying, and generally preceding, large earthquakes. More in general, a lot of electro-magnetic anomalies, often well evident, are more and more frequently reported associated to moderate to large earthquakes. The recent scientific literature is full of hypotheses about how such electromagnetic effects, associated to large earthquakes, could be generated. The most debated question is if they can be considered as precursors (or maybe triggers) for large events, or they are caused by the process of slip on the faults which also generate the earthquake. Here we suggest that the increase in the proton density near the magnetosphere can qualitatively explain all these observations, and also give a physical basis to our statistical observations.

[citations removed for readability]

[midnight rambler]

HAARP is the Satanists' EQ prediction model.