keehah
21st April 2010, 11:00 PM
Came across this article while looking for information on the sun's continued low Solar Geomagnetic Activity (see below). This first article is a very good read, better than most on the topic, about what the future may bring. I've quoted two sections.
The Sun is Undergoing a State Change
James A. Marusek March/April 2010 (http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/StateChange.pdf)
The sun has gone magnetically quiet as it transitions to Solar Cycle 24. The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It is commonly referred to a measuring stick for solar magnetic activity. For 11 months, from November 2008 to September 2009, the Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom with reading of "4 and 5". But in the last two months, October and November, the Ap monthly index broke through the glass floor and spawned the lowest value in the past 77 years with a reading of "3". And then in December, the AP Index even went quieter with a reading of "2".
Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These are charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars (supernovas). Many of these particles are traveling near the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. Currently the sun's interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nano-Tesla (nT) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT. The solar wind pressure is down to a 50-year low. The heliospheric current sheet is flattening. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen since satellite measurements began 50 years ago.
If we slip into a quiet solar "Grand Minima" state, we can expect GCR flux rates to increase 200% to 300% above current levels.
There are Two Paths Ahead; Each Marked with a 'Danger' Signpost
We are now at a crossroad. Two paths lie before us. Both are marked with a signpost that reads 'Danger'! Down one path lies the threat from massive solar storms. Down the other path lies several decades of crushing cold temperatures and global famine.
If either of these threats materializes, many nations will be hit blind-sighted. Both are related to the current state of the sun. The sun has been in a 'Grand Maxima' for most of the past century. This has accounted for much of the natural warming the earth has experienced. But as evident in the high number of spotless days in this solar minimum, the sun is changing states. It might (1) level off and revert to the old solar cycles or (2) the sun might go even quieter magnetically slipping into a Dalton Minimum" or a solar Grand Minima such as the 'Maunder Minimum'. It is still a little early to predict which way it will swing.
Solar Storm Threat
Most solar storms produce only minor disquieting effects on Earth. Typically one might expect short-term electrical power blackouts, short-lived communication outages, rerouting of aircraft, loss of a few satellites and a beautiful aurora borealis" in the night sky from a large solar storm. But as the intensity of a solar storm increases like a wild beast, the storm can begin to develop the capacity to create a major disaster on Earth. The difference in solar storm intensity is like the difference between being hit with a tropical rainstorm and being devastated by a Category 5 hurricane. The solar storm of 1-2 September 1859, which began with a solar flare so strong that it was subsequently named the Carrington Flare, was such a beast.
A solar storm can consist of three major components: a solar flare, a solar proton event and a coronal mass ejection. A coronal mass ejection can interact with Earth's magnetic field to produce a geomagnetic storm. Not all solar storms produce all three elements but the largest solar storms tend to.
Will the world face the threat from a massive solar storm in Solar Cycle 24? An increase in the number of cumulative spotless days during a solar minimum appears to correlate to a reduction in the number of sunspots over the entire solar cycle. The old solar cycles produced overall 38% fewer International Sunspot Numbers than the recent solar cycles. Since the old solar cycles produced fewer sunspots, one might draw the conclusion that we will be entering a period of reduced solar storms. But historical observations show this is not true. It is quite the opposite. The old solar cycles produced very intense solar storms. Massive solar storms in the old solar cycles occurred on 1-2 September 1859, 12 October 1859, 4 February 1872, 17-18 November 1882, 30 March 1894, 31 October 1903, 25 September 1909 and 13-16 May 1921. How can this be? This is because the old solar cycles produced massive sunspots. It was as if the magnetic field energy still existed and still had to be vented but during a shorter time interval, so the sunspots exploded in size and power.
Quiet Sun Threat
There are some scientists that believe the sun, rather than leveling off into a new state in Solar Cycle 24, will
continue to free fall throughout this solar cycle. Several scientists including David Hathaway (NASA), William Livingston & Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory), Khabibullo Abdusamatov (Russian Academy of Science), Cornelis de Jager (The Netherlands) & S. Duhau (Argentina) and Theodor Landscheidt (Germany), have forecasted that the sun may enter a period similar to the Dalton Minimum or a more severe Grand Minima (such as the Maunder Minimum or Spörer Minimum), a decade from now in Solar Cycle 25.
A few scientists including David C. Archibald (Australia) and M. A. Clilverd (Britain) have warned this might even begin in Solar Cycle 24. We are at the transition into Solar Cycle 24 and this cycle has already shown itself to be unusually quiet.
The sun is a major force controlling natural climate change on Earth. Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with cosmic rays. These are high-speed charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars. Many of these particles are moving close to the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. As a result, far greater numbers collide with Earth and penetrate down into the lower atmosphere where they ionize small particles of moisture (humidity) forming them into water droplets that become clouds. Charged raindrops are ten to a hundred times more efficient in capturing aerosols than uncharged drops. Low clouds tend to be optically thick and are efficient at reflecting sunlight back into space. A large increase in Earth's cloud cover produces a global drop in temperature.
Galactic cosmic rays are a very effective amplifying mechanism for climate forcing because the energy needed to change cloudiness is small compared with the resulting changes in solar radiation received at the Earth's surface.
Earth's ocean cloud cover is strongly correlated with GCR flux modulated by solar cycle variations...
_______________
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/ap-1844-dec2009.png
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/02/solar-update-ap-index-of-geomagnetic.html
An Ap index of 4″ was the lowest recorded monthly value since measurements began in January 1932. In October and November 2009, this index record was broken...
The Ap Index of Solar Geomagnetic Activity continues at historic lows in the low single digits, and can lag the month of solar cycle minimums by up to 1 year. Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and sunspot activity appears to have bottomed in August 2009, but Ap Index bottoming could lag up to one year based on prior cycles.
Link to Original Article (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/)
The Sun is Undergoing a State Change
James A. Marusek March/April 2010 (http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/StateChange.pdf)
The sun has gone magnetically quiet as it transitions to Solar Cycle 24. The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It is commonly referred to a measuring stick for solar magnetic activity. For 11 months, from November 2008 to September 2009, the Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom with reading of "4 and 5". But in the last two months, October and November, the Ap monthly index broke through the glass floor and spawned the lowest value in the past 77 years with a reading of "3". And then in December, the AP Index even went quieter with a reading of "2".
Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These are charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars (supernovas). Many of these particles are traveling near the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. Currently the sun's interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nano-Tesla (nT) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT. The solar wind pressure is down to a 50-year low. The heliospheric current sheet is flattening. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen since satellite measurements began 50 years ago.
If we slip into a quiet solar "Grand Minima" state, we can expect GCR flux rates to increase 200% to 300% above current levels.
There are Two Paths Ahead; Each Marked with a 'Danger' Signpost
We are now at a crossroad. Two paths lie before us. Both are marked with a signpost that reads 'Danger'! Down one path lies the threat from massive solar storms. Down the other path lies several decades of crushing cold temperatures and global famine.
If either of these threats materializes, many nations will be hit blind-sighted. Both are related to the current state of the sun. The sun has been in a 'Grand Maxima' for most of the past century. This has accounted for much of the natural warming the earth has experienced. But as evident in the high number of spotless days in this solar minimum, the sun is changing states. It might (1) level off and revert to the old solar cycles or (2) the sun might go even quieter magnetically slipping into a Dalton Minimum" or a solar Grand Minima such as the 'Maunder Minimum'. It is still a little early to predict which way it will swing.
Solar Storm Threat
Most solar storms produce only minor disquieting effects on Earth. Typically one might expect short-term electrical power blackouts, short-lived communication outages, rerouting of aircraft, loss of a few satellites and a beautiful aurora borealis" in the night sky from a large solar storm. But as the intensity of a solar storm increases like a wild beast, the storm can begin to develop the capacity to create a major disaster on Earth. The difference in solar storm intensity is like the difference between being hit with a tropical rainstorm and being devastated by a Category 5 hurricane. The solar storm of 1-2 September 1859, which began with a solar flare so strong that it was subsequently named the Carrington Flare, was such a beast.
A solar storm can consist of three major components: a solar flare, a solar proton event and a coronal mass ejection. A coronal mass ejection can interact with Earth's magnetic field to produce a geomagnetic storm. Not all solar storms produce all three elements but the largest solar storms tend to.
Will the world face the threat from a massive solar storm in Solar Cycle 24? An increase in the number of cumulative spotless days during a solar minimum appears to correlate to a reduction in the number of sunspots over the entire solar cycle. The old solar cycles produced overall 38% fewer International Sunspot Numbers than the recent solar cycles. Since the old solar cycles produced fewer sunspots, one might draw the conclusion that we will be entering a period of reduced solar storms. But historical observations show this is not true. It is quite the opposite. The old solar cycles produced very intense solar storms. Massive solar storms in the old solar cycles occurred on 1-2 September 1859, 12 October 1859, 4 February 1872, 17-18 November 1882, 30 March 1894, 31 October 1903, 25 September 1909 and 13-16 May 1921. How can this be? This is because the old solar cycles produced massive sunspots. It was as if the magnetic field energy still existed and still had to be vented but during a shorter time interval, so the sunspots exploded in size and power.
Quiet Sun Threat
There are some scientists that believe the sun, rather than leveling off into a new state in Solar Cycle 24, will
continue to free fall throughout this solar cycle. Several scientists including David Hathaway (NASA), William Livingston & Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory), Khabibullo Abdusamatov (Russian Academy of Science), Cornelis de Jager (The Netherlands) & S. Duhau (Argentina) and Theodor Landscheidt (Germany), have forecasted that the sun may enter a period similar to the Dalton Minimum or a more severe Grand Minima (such as the Maunder Minimum or Spörer Minimum), a decade from now in Solar Cycle 25.
A few scientists including David C. Archibald (Australia) and M. A. Clilverd (Britain) have warned this might even begin in Solar Cycle 24. We are at the transition into Solar Cycle 24 and this cycle has already shown itself to be unusually quiet.
The sun is a major force controlling natural climate change on Earth. Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with cosmic rays. These are high-speed charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars. Many of these particles are moving close to the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. As a result, far greater numbers collide with Earth and penetrate down into the lower atmosphere where they ionize small particles of moisture (humidity) forming them into water droplets that become clouds. Charged raindrops are ten to a hundred times more efficient in capturing aerosols than uncharged drops. Low clouds tend to be optically thick and are efficient at reflecting sunlight back into space. A large increase in Earth's cloud cover produces a global drop in temperature.
Galactic cosmic rays are a very effective amplifying mechanism for climate forcing because the energy needed to change cloudiness is small compared with the resulting changes in solar radiation received at the Earth's surface.
Earth's ocean cloud cover is strongly correlated with GCR flux modulated by solar cycle variations...
_______________
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/ap-1844-dec2009.png
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/02/solar-update-ap-index-of-geomagnetic.html
An Ap index of 4″ was the lowest recorded monthly value since measurements began in January 1932. In October and November 2009, this index record was broken...
The Ap Index of Solar Geomagnetic Activity continues at historic lows in the low single digits, and can lag the month of solar cycle minimums by up to 1 year. Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and sunspot activity appears to have bottomed in August 2009, but Ap Index bottoming could lag up to one year based on prior cycles.
Link to Original Article (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/)