Elliot Wavers calling for gold’s demise are misguided

[Serpo]

I want to repeat for what seems like the umpteenth time – those Elliot Wavers who keep calling for gold’s demise are misguided because their view of the metal is too “Dollar-priced” centered. This is the fatal flaw in their “analysis” and their incessant bearish gold calls. They treat the metal as if it was a common commodity not understanding its role as a CURRENCY. Any analysis that does not grasp this simple fact is doomed to failure for we are not talking about soybeans here or cocoa but a metal that has had an historic role as a currency and a store of value for thousands of years. The failure to see the price of gold in various other currency terms leads to erroneous conclusions. Any market that is going on to make all new lifetime highs is not bearish. It really is that simple and arguments to the contrary are based more on hope and wishing than solid, objective analysis.

http://jsmineset.com/


Meanwhile Elliott Wave (EW) enthusiasts continue to stubbornly insist that the gold price is headed lower. The people who follow these advisors are losing out on the greatest gold bull market in history. After all if you don’t buy gold or silver while it is cheap, when will you buy?



EW practitioners are like people who drive down the highway with both eyes glued to the rear view mirror, oblivious to what lies ahead.



EW analysis works best when viewed in retrospect. The reason for this is very simple. Let’s assume that in ‘never-neverland’ corn was selling at 4.00 a bushel. The EW analysts, after drawing in their 1 – 5 patterns next predicted a drop in price to 3.00 a bushel. They expected this drop to move down in three stages marked A, B and C.



Meanwhile there was a drought in all of the corn-growing areas of never-neverland. Price was beginning to rise. The EW analysts kept warning: “The price of corn is headed lower because Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.” Ignoring the weather reports they looked only at the lines on the chart.



To apply EW analysis to the price of gold simply by drawing anticipatory lines on a drawing board is to ignore the billions upon billions of Dollars, Euros, Pounds, Yen, Rupees and Renminbis that are daily being printed and released into the world’s money pool.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1272044664.php

[Saul Mine]

Elliot Wave predictions are meaningless. The students can't even agree on what to call the present.

[jedemdasseine]

I'm not entirely dismissive of wave theories. Martin Armstrong is a better study, but learning at least the basics of Elliott Wave theory is helpful, if for no other reason than that one can follow the commentary of others. Basically, I see Elliott Wave analysis as method of helping one find a good starting point, a means to get you in the general vicinity of future market moves, a way to establish context to one's own analysis. One must always practice due diligence and remember that fundamental moves always transcend technical moves. Some would argue that fundamental moves can be predicted by technicals, like deeper K-wave analysis, but that's another story altogether.

[Neuro]

As far as I understand it some Elliot wavers say that the Gold price will collapse down to 300$/ounce while other Elliot wavers says gold will go to 20.000 or whatever Alfs number is... I think some EW's will end up correct!