When to purchase GS?

[YukonCornelius]

Goldman down about 10% today

http://www.google.com/finance?q=gs

Anyone got any friends there who will let us know when the bottom is in? You know it's all insider trading with them? They could have at least given us the short notice.

[Spectrism]

You might look at its derivative liability first.

[YukonCornelius]

Well I figure Ben B. and Timmy G. can whip out several trillion to help out their buddies. Therefore, the liability is no problem.

[k-os]

Never. Starve the beast.

[sirgonzo420]

Never. Starve the beast.



^^^
This.

[General of Darkness]

I was thinking Gold and Silver, but GS can go to hell.

[Horn]

Wait for their Chinese subsidiary to open.

Goldmen,Sachs & Chinwa

[Olmstein]

Never. Starve the beast.


+2

Don't swim with the sharks on wall street.

[Spectrism]

Well I figure Ben B. and Timmy G. can whip out several trillion to help out their buddies. Therefore, the liability is no problem.


GS is the new sacrificial lamb. They already took their plunder and moved on to the next spiel. I don't think you will see more bailouts making GS fly high. It really depends on how soo the next crisis hits. I haven't been able to find my crystal ball so I am plumb outta good guesses for that.

[oldmansmith]

Never. Starve the beast.


Exactly. Would you purchase Devil Corp. if you thought you could make a profit off of it?

Buy gold and silver, hide it well, and get on with life.

[steyr_m]

I was thinking Gold and Silver, but GS can go to hell.


I thought the same. I agree with the other poster, starve the beast.

[gunny highway]

dude, they probably shorted themselves! if you get back into the market you are playing with fire. good luck and god bless. :yuk

[Glass]

The only good and right trade on GS is to short them. Are they still imune from shorting or has that protection finished now?

[MNeagle]

Goldman’s Shares Plunge on Inquiries and Downgrades

How much trouble is Goldman Sachs really in?

One answer: About $21 billion worth.

That’s how much the vaunted Wall Street bank has lost in market value since it was engulfed in a fraud accusation two weeks ago.

Shares of Goldman tumbled anew on Friday after reports surfaced that federal prosecutors had opened a criminal investigation of the firm, prompting two analysts to downgrade their ratings of the stock. The share price fell a precipitous 9.4 percent in an avalanche of selling, to close at $145.20, a nine-month low.

That drop helped sink the broader market. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 1.4 percent, ending lower for the week for the first time in about two months.

Goldman employees took a direct hit — as a group they are the second-biggest owner of the company, with 4 percent of its outstanding shares. Axa, the French insurer, owns slightly more.

The criminal investigation is in an early stage and may not lead to charges. The Securities and Exchange Commission, which brought the civil suit, is sharing information with prosecutors, according to a law enforcement official, but the focus of the criminal inquiry is unknown.

The criminal inquiry has been under way since early this year, the official said, before the S.E.C. filed its action on April 16 but months after Goldman learned of the civil investigation.

Wall Street analysts are beginning to acknowledge the potential liabilities Goldman is facing from the fraud accusations leveled by the Securities and Exchange Commission and federal prosecutors.

On Friday, two analysts, including Guy Moszkowski of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, cut their ratings of Goldman’s shares from buy to neutral, usually seen as equivalent to a hold, chiefly because of the financial risks associated with Goldman’s uncertain legal and political outlook.

Citing the federal investigation, Mr. Moszkowski wrote: “Most such probes end inconclusively, with no charges filed; and we continue to believe that GS has long-term earnings power beyond what is discounted in the share price. However, it is very difficult to see the shares making further progress until the matter has been resolved.”

Worries about Goldman’s future may receive a further airing this weekend when the billionaire investor Warren E. Buffett holds an annual meeting for his company, Berkshire Hathaway, in Omaha, where he is expected to take questions from shareholders. Berkshire is one of the biggest holders of Goldman shares.

Analysts and investors are beginning to worry about the potential damage to Goldman’s gilt-edged reputation, which could hurt its franchise if clients turn elsewhere. There is also the potentially hefty cost of fighting or settling the S.E.C.’s civil fraud suit.

Then there is the unpalatable prospect of criminal charges tied to Goldman’s trading, against the bank or any of its executives. Goldman denies the S.E.C.’s claim that it deceived investors in a mortgage-related deal, and on Friday it was silent about the criminal inquiry started by the Justice Department.

Compared with the commission’s civil action, prosecutors would face a steeper hurdle in trying to bring a criminal case against Goldman. Prosecutors have to meet a higher burden of proof and must prove willfulness on the part of Goldman employees to obtain a criminal conviction.

For that reason, several criminal law experts predicted that prosecutors were likely to sit back and see how the civil case progressed.

“There is no reason for them to rush precipitously into this case, and much to be gained by acting deliberately and getting whatever cooperation the S.E.C. can from Goldman Sachs,” said Daniel C. Richman, a Columbia University law professor and former federal prosecutor.

That calculus could change, however, if the government decides Goldman is not being cooperative, he said. In that case, he said, prosecutors might seek to pressure Goldman employees into breaking ranks, using the threat of prosecution and grand jury subpoenas.

If the criminal investigation were indeed to turn up something, it is unlikely that Goldman would escape unscathed, if Wall Street history is an indicator. That is something that equity analysts are beginning to factor into their assessment of the stock.

“The risks are kind of piling up,” said Matthew Albrecht, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s who downgraded Goldman’s shares to a sell on Friday, a ratings hit that is rare for Wall Street banks, particularly for Goldman.

As if the civil and criminal inquiries were not enough, he said, Goldman also faces the threat of tighter regulation as Congress debates new legislation. That cloud hangs over the balance sheets of all Wall Street banks, but particularly Goldman, whose earnings come from less diversified businesses than those of competitors like JPMorgan Chase, he said.

For some investors, however, Goldman’s depressed share price could be seen as a buying opportunity. After all, few people have become rich betting against Goldman. For the time being, the bank is still wildly profitable — last week it posted a first-quarter profit of $3.46 billion, double the amount it recorded in the same quarter last year.

Most analysts still like Goldman. In a Bloomberg survey of 28 analysts on Friday, 19 still rated Goldman a buy. (The survey included Mr. Moszkowski but excluded Mr. Albrecht.)

In the long run, the recent decline in Goldman’s share price may prove a blip. It hit a record high of around $236 in November 2007 and fell to a low of around $53 in November 2008 during the dark days of the financial crisis. But since then it has recovered sharply — more than tripling between November 2008 and October 2009, when it reached about $190.

But that does not mitigate the pain of the latest decline.

Since the recent high in October, the shares have fallen back by about 25 percent — much of that coming in the last two weeks since the S.E.C.’s announcement.

Trading volumes have shot up — 73 million Goldman shares were traded on Friday, up from average volumes of 13.5 million a day over the period since October — a sign that traders are nervous about the direction Goldman and the investigations are heading.

Goldman’s chief executive, Lloyd C. Blankfein, held 2,023,364 million shares of the company outright as of Jan. 25, 2010. They were worth roughly $373 million on the day before the S.E.C. filed its complaint; on paper Mr. Blankfein has lost more than $81 million since then.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/01/business/01goldman.html?partner=rss&emc=rss