Buy put options on BP

[striped_bear]

I predict that one could make a lot of money buying and selling put options on BP right now. Their stock has already taken a hit but it's still at $52, it has a long way to fall. This oil spill is only going to become much worse over the next few weeks.

There are dozens and dozens of law suits being filed against them right now. BP opted to forgo installing a remote shut off valve (which aren't required by law in the US, but are in all other countries where offshore oil drilling takes place), to save half a million dollars. I also believe a lot of the blame will eventually fall on Halliburton, as they apparently didn't cap the well properly.

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:BP

[BillBoard]

What other consequences from that oil spill you think?

Can ships safely navigate through there? Can the port of Houston be in danger of being shut down.

Sea food shortages?

Grain export to Latin America be affected?

I am sure there are more question to ask, but those few should get the thinking juice started.

[Spectrism]

My guess is that those options will become VERY expensive very quickly.

[EE_]

Wall Street and Goldman Sachs are salivating over the profits they will make on this.

[striped_bear]

What other consequences from that oil spill you think?

Can ships safely navigate through there? Can the port of Houston be in danger of being shut down.

Sea food shortages?

Grain export to Latin America be affected?

I am sure there are more question to ask, but those few should get the thinking juice started.


Let us all pray that the oil slick does not get carried by the gulf stream into the Florida Keys.

The 3rd largest coral reef in the world could be annihilated... :'(

[MAGNES]

You are playing with fire and it is gambling.

This coming from a guy that is waiting for silver lows
to go long on options again.

Wait for silver to get taken down like other years.

COT analysis and full correction and advice from
the masters, LEMetro, Adam Hamilton on gold corrections, etc

If the COT chart bottoms this summer, that is 2 stars lined
up, the COT chart and seasonals, then you get third star
lined up, gold 30 % plus correction, where silver lands
we don't know, heavy short term drops like other years,
total breakdown, down 1.5 dollars as gold goes sideways
etc, that is the 4th star lined up, silver will be sitting on
8-12 dollars, perfect opportunity for long term call buys,
all stars lined up, etc , May/July 2011 C 10.00 @ 1.00 , etc,
free money basically.

[Workaholic]

MAG, that whole deal just went right over my head.... :o

[aybesee123]

You are playing with fire and it is gambling.

This coming from a guy that is waiting for silver lows
to go long on options again.

Wait for silver to get taken down like other years.

COT analysis and full correction and advice from
the masters, LEMetro, Adam Hamilton on gold corrections, etc

If the COT chart bottoms this summer, that is 2 stars lined
up, the COT chart and seasonals, then you get third star
lined up, gold 30 % plus correction, where silver lands
we don't know, heavy short term drops like other years,
total breakdown, down 1.5 dollars as gold goes sideways
etc, that is the 4th star lined up, silver will be sitting on
8-12 dollars, perfect opportunity for long term call buys,
all stars lined up, etc , May/July 2011 C 10.00 @ 1.00 , etc,
free money basically.


whats gambling is expecting $8-$12 Silver ::)

[striped_bear]

Over 3 dozen lawsuits filed over Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Link to Article (http://www.examiner.com/x-45088-Legal-News-Examiner~y2010m5d2-Over-3-dozen-lawsuits-filed-over-Deepwater-Horizon-oil-spill)

More than 36 lawsuits have been filed against BP, Transocean, Cameron International, and Halliburton, in connection with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, which is threatening to cause great environmental and economic harm in the Gulf of Mexico.

The oil leak, which began when Deepwater Horizon oil well exploded, has already released an estimated 1,600,000 gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, and is continuing to release over 200,000 additional gallons each day. Stopping the leak could take months, and this disaster is on track to eclipse the Exxon Valdez oil spill, during which 11,000,000 gallons of oil were lost. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is particularly difficult to stop due to the fact that the oil well is over 5,000 feet below the surface of the water.

Lawsuits have been filed in states which boarder the Gulf of Mexico, ranging from Texas to Florida, by fisherman, beachfront property owners, and others who have an economic interest that was affected by the oil spill. Lawsuits have also been filed in connection with the 11 crew members who were killed or injured during the explosion and fire that led to the oil well's destruction. Of the lawsuits, at least 31 are proposed class-action lawsuits.

BP, which owns the Deepwater Horizon well, is likely to have the most potential liability under the Oil Pollution Act. Cameron is facing potential liability related to its blowout prevention equipment, which apparently failed to function as intended, while Halliburton faces potential liability for its work done to cement the oil well. Transocean, the world's largest offshore oil well drilling company, may also incur liability in connection with this ongoing oil spill. Estimates of the total cost of this oil spill exceed $14 billion dollars.

Although lawsuits will not undo the environmental harm, or even completely redress the economic harm, they will play an important role in mitigating the harm from this spill, and preventing future oil spills. Firstly, the damages that will likely be recovered through these lawsuits will help compensate property owners, fisherman, injured workers, and other individuals who have suffered and will soon suffer as a result of this man-made disaster. Secondly, likely being forced to pay these damages will cause the oil industry to revamp its safety procedures, so as to reduce the risk of another costly oil spill that hurts their bottom line. Finally, high-profile disasters - and the litigation that ensues - often spurs regulatory action, which can also help prevent these disasters from occurring in the future.



EDIT: Changed long link to named link to prevent horizontal scrolling. -Gaillo

[MAGNES]

whats gambling is expecting $8-$12 Silver ::)



No that is not gambling, gambling was buying some
put options far out of the money on setups for hits.

The Shorts only closed out 20 K positions and
brought it down to 1450, gold still in good +ve
chart, they were nowhere near their lows on COT.

I already had 3 good runs, I don't think you understand
how this works, they cannot close out without dropping
the price.

I had a real time thread too, APR 2008, and bought at
lows in 3 chunks, between 10 and 9, missed 8. Was
off by a 2 weeks on lows too for last purchases.

I showed everyone how and why.

"$16.00 SI is a concrete floor."

Not, ask the 10 Oz guy, lol .

So if it does not come fine, I ain't buying stock, buy and hold.
This market is rigged, so I wait for the riggers to do their thing
as they have always done. If it doesn't come I lose nothing.
Already had some good runs. I am all cash waiting.

[Trinity]

"$16.00 SI is a concrete floor."

Not, ask the 10 Oz guy, lol .

Yes that 2008 deflation event was contrived by wall street that took the metals down also MAGNES. And I'm glad you made money on it. Seriously. And I will eat one of my old brown shoes if Silver ever goes under 16 dollars again. To tell you the truth I think 18 bucks might make a good floor. The commitment of traders has been good info to go by but I think not lately. JMHO

[striped_bear]

UPDATE 1-BP shares extend slide as oil spill expands

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0321222220100503?type=marketsNews

NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - Oil giant BP Plc's (BP.L) shares sank further on Monday as the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico continued to grow and the U.S. Justice Department said it was taking part in an investigation of the disaster.

British markets were closed on Monday but BP's Frankfurt-listed shares opened 8 percent lower and were down 7 percent at midday, against a 0.3 percent fall in the STOXX Europe 600 oil and gas index .SXEP.

In New York, American Depositary Receipts of BP's shares fell 7.8 percent to $48.10, bringing their drop since the close of trading on April 23, to nearly 20 percent.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder's comments that the Justice Department was involved in the probe raised the specter of criminal liability for BP in the oil spill spreading toward the Gulf Coast, after an explosion at a rig drilling its oil well on April 20. [ID:nWBT013892]

See main story: [ID:nN03142622].

BP's losses are on top of a drop of around 13 percent since the accident, equating to a drop of around $20 billion in BP's market capitalization.

"The problem with BP is, as long as the leak continues, nobody knows how much it'll cost to clean up the mess, so the stock could continue to sink for a while," one Paris-based trader said.

President Barack Obama visited Louisiana over the weekend and laid the cost of the clean up firmly on BP.

BP has not put an estimate on the likely costs of the spill, which follows the explosion and sinking of a drilling rig operated by Swiss-based driller Transocean.

The company said last week it and partners in the well, including Anadarko Petroleum (APC.N), were paying $6 million/day in clean-up efforts, but admitted costs would rise sharply when the oil hit land, as would damages claims.

Shares in other companies linked to the spill also weakened. Transocean Ltd (RIGN.S) (RIG.N), the owner of the drilling rig, saw its shares fell 6 percent to 74.75 Swiss Francs in Geneva, Halliburton (HAL.N) shares slipped 2.4 percent to $29.91 in New York, and Cameron International (CAM.N) fell 2.9 percent to $38.33. (Reporting by Matt Daily and Tom Bergin in London, editing Tim Dobbyn)

[Spectrism]

Now I see why BP shares went up wildly... they are claiming to have restricted the flow of the oil.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out. If the valves hold, they have more time to get solutions in place. If this blows, it could be catastrophic. The previous leaks have been restricted by the crumpled pipe. If that is broken loose, the flow could become ginormous.

------------


A great opportunity to get in to this play presented itself.... as BP price rose with the "good news". The market is just bouncing around with whims of news. Now it is dropping again. Big swing.

-------------------

Now it appears to be dropping again...

[striped_bear]

@Spectrism: Ya I read about that "clamping" success they had today. Good news, I do hope it doesn't make things worse as you pointed out. I think the biggest threat to that is the ocean's current dragging the pipe around the seabed.

By the way, what program is that you took a screenshot of? Looks like a nice stock program.

[Spectrism]

@Spectrism: Ya I read about that "clamping" success they had today. Good news, I do hope it doesn't make things worse as you pointed out. I think the biggest threat to that is the ocean's current dragging the pipe around the seabed.

By the way, what program is that you took a screenshot of? Looks like a nice stock program.


I use Think or Swim- now owned by TD Ameritrade.

I bought puts and since my account is so small, I can't day-trade. I have to hold over night. My 10 puts went from 3.60 ($360 each) to 4.60+ and then down to 2.60 on the "good news"... and then back to 3.60. That's a swing of $3600 to $4600 to $2600 all in a few hours.

The trend on BP was heading toward $35 from its $50 price. We'll see how that progresses today.

[striped_bear]

The stock is back up somewhat, but it will not last long.

They're passing a new law to extend BP's financial liability for collateral damage to $10 billion (up from the previous $75 million).

That $10 billion is in addition to the cost of the ongoing cleanup, the cost of drilling a relief well, the loss of millions of barrels of crude oil... etc.

[Spectrism]

The stock is back up somewhat, but it will not last long.

They're passing a new law to extend BP's financial liability for collateral damage to $10 billion (up from the previous $75 million).

That $10 billion is in addition to the cost of the ongoing cleanup, the cost of drilling a relief well, the loss of millions of barrels of crude oil... etc.


I took a shellacking on this... but still have my positions. I missed out on the major drops in the indexes to play this one. Oh well... I am holding as the leverage with the BP options is pretty high. I may get way ahead just holding now. BP can't stay up with all the stocks diving.

The stock market is pooping its pants again. Plunge!

[striped_bear]

Down to $46.

Still playing with this Spectrism?

[osoab]

What about long Exxon and Royal Dutch?

If one of their competitors goes under would they be taken a larger share?

Maybe some of the ovrseas companies making moves on BP's interests?

[striped_bear]

What about long Exxon and Royal Dutch?

If one of their competitors goes under would they be taken a larger share?

Maybe some of the ovrseas companies making moves on BP's interests?


Not bad thinking, but I think it would be wise to also consider the impact this disaster will have on the oil industry as a whole.

Then again Shell just announced they are going to drill the deepest oil well in history off Canada's shores...

[Spectrism]

Down to $46.

Still playing with this Spectrism?


Yeup. The lies from BP and our government seem to ALWAYS be in play as well. I think this stock should drop to the $35 range, but who knows what "good news" will be published. The damage done already by this oil gusher should bankrupt BP. You can bet their lawyers are working on ways to skate through this. And the Kenyan monkey-boy amerikan impersonator will have some personally motivated impact here too.

BP has been paying dividends quite well. If not for this disaster, it looks like a very strong stock- especially considering most stocks out there pay nothing.

[MAGNES]

"$16.00 SI is a concrete floor."

Not, ask the 10 Oz guy, lol .

Yes that 2008 deflation event was contrived by wall street that took the metals down also MAGNES. And I'm glad you made money on it. Seriously. And I will eat one of my old brown shoes if Silver ever goes under 16 dollars again. To tell you the truth I think 18 bucks might make a good floor. The commitment of traders has been good info to go by but I think not lately. JMHO


Get ready for it ! ;D

You already ate two hats remember.

Nothing has really changed except 2 years later.

You are wrong about the COT friend and that alone is not
what I am looking at anyways, you know that, just last weeks
price action alone looks very bad for silver. The entire market
rigging operation is in the COT chart. GS left TOCOM cause we
were watching, etc, they wanted to stop publishing it, etc.

I remember someone gave my thread 5 stars, lol.
The analysis, links, issues, references has not changed.
Matter of fact silver prices look the same remember,
19-17 trading range all summer then bam.
I need to put that thread back up.

What would suck this summer if the bottom is 12.50
after a full correction and full COT bottoming. RR is
not the same as 10-9, if you remember I was sweating
for a while too, high 11's and sold most early.

Does anyone really believe they will be in the hole
and lose control of their manipulations, silver at
$40 , losses at $20 X 350,000,000 OZ . Apply same
to gold.

How did those BP put options work out, not, unless you
got in right away on day one. Still would of been risk.

Set aside 6K for 1 contract and wait for SI bottom, very conservative
play IMO going out to May June 2011 12-10 strikes. If it does not
come it does not come. I blew it last summer, but just going on
history that has worked. But it feels good to be in cash waiting
for it, also got careless with some play money , some wins some
losses.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=bp&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=127362&style=320&time=7&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=1191&mocktick=1&rand=9449

[Book]

They're passing a new law to extend BP's financial liability for collateral damage to $10 billion (up from the previous $75 million).



http://www.digitaldutch.com/arles/tutorials/thumbnail_tags/galleries/thumbnail_tags_with_size/images/Hammock.jpg

Unconstitutional to change a liability law retroactively. Their liability really is now limited to $75 Million.

:D

[Spectrism]

Surely you don't expect them to follow the constitution now? They disregard it in everything else. When the oil destroys Florida, the entire Gulf of Mexico and starts bleeding into North Caolina beaches.... people will cry for BLOOD.

They will find ways to "tax" and penalize BP. Also, does that law only cover governmental liability? Private law suits might be entirely different.

[Book]

They will find ways to "tax" and penalize BP.



Capitalism & Law shields our Masters from real liability:


Bhopal Compensation from Union Carbide

* The Government of India passed the Bhopal Gas Leak Disaster Act that gave the government rights to represent all victims in or outside India.[4]
* UCC offered US$ 350 million, the insurance sum.[4] The Government of India claimed US$ 3.3 billion from UCC.[4] In 1999, a settlement was reached under which UCC agreed to pay US$470 million (the insurance sum, plus interest) in a full and final settlement of its civil and criminal liability.[4]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal_disaster


:oo-->

[Trinity]

Get ready for it ! Grin

You already ate two hats remember.

I finished off the 2008 hat, but the hat bet I made in September of 2009 just got a little nibble taken out. I think it went under 16 dollars for a few days at most in late September. 16 is floor IMVHO

[MAGNES]

Get ready for it ! Grin

You already ate two hats remember.

I finished off the 2008 hat, but the hat bet I made in September of 2009 just got a little nibble taken out. I think it went under 16 dollars for a few days at most in late September. 16 is floor IMVHO


1450, 20K on the short covering.

They brought it up before you could go long.

Takes volitility to the downside to totally bring
their positions to lows, I even predicted that
it is too late in the season for them to go too
low and this will be some intermediate move
and I was right, and I saw the charts and
setup at just above 1600 and opened a thread
and it played out, they bought themselves
breathing room. They have total control
and are not even sweating, and this year
looks like a total rerun, today , evening volatility
and price action on SI, at key battle line,
gold 1220, they been fighting, 2 funny days,
spikes down last few days, they are fighting
new highs. SI is going to get crushed like
before if this plays out. Markets look like
they may tank this summer too. SKF time
remember, de ja vu all over again 2 years
later, even SI price is at same high, lol .

Fighting Gold at 1220
http://gold-silver.us/forum/gold-silver-precious-metals/fighting-gold-at-1220/