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wildcard
8th May 2010, 02:02 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7L63Ryu.AZU&pos=4

I'm sure that 1000 point dip in the NYSE had nothing to do with it.


Treasuries Climb on Concern Europe Can’t Contain Debt Crisis




By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries surged, with 10-year note yields registering the biggest two-week drop since December 2008, as concern that Europe’s debt crisis will spread beyond Greece sent investors to the safety of U.S. government debt. Thirty-year year bonds gained for a fifth straight week, the longest winning streak since the collapse of global credit markets at the end of 2008 drove yields to record lows. The jump in demand comes as the Treasury is scheduled to sell $78 billion in notes and bonds next week.

“Any hiccup you see, we’re going to have that flight to quality,” said Richard Schlanger, who helps invest $13 billion in fixed-income securities as vice president at Pioneer Investments in Boston. “It can happen again.”

The benchmark 10-year note yield slid 38 basis points, or 0.38 percentage point, in the past two weeks to 3.43 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. It tumbled 23 basis points since it closed April 30 at 3.65 percent. Ten-year yields have plunged as much as 75 basis points since reaching an 18-month high of 4.01 percent on April 5, touching 3.26 percent on May 6, the lowest level since December.

The two-year note yield fell 26 basis points over the past two weeks to 0.81 percent, its biggest drop since January. The 30-year bond yield fell 24 basis points over the past five days, the most in a week since December 2008, to 4.28 percent. The Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to virtually zero that month and said it would buy long-term debt.

Increase in Jobs

Treasuries fell yesterday for the first time in four days as a report showed U.S. employment rose the most last month in four years and investors speculated that the European Central Bank would step up efforts to keep Greece’s fiscal crisis from spreading.

U.S. employers added 290,000 jobs in April after an increase of 230,000 positions in March that was larger than initially estimated, the Labor Department reported in Washington. The median forecast of 84 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 190,000. Worker productivity increased more than forecast in the first quarter, a Labor report on May 6 showed, rising to a 3.6 percent annual rate.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet resisted pressure from economists this week to consider buying government bonds to ease the Greek debt crisis. Stocks, raw materials and the euro fell on concern that Europe’s most indebted nations will struggle to avoid default.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 6.4 percent this week and the MSCI World Index plunged 8.3 percent. Crude oil for June delivery fell as much as 3.4 percent yesterday to $74.51 a barrel in New York, the lowest level since Feb. 12.

‘Monitor the Situation’

Group of Seven nations officials met yesterday by conference call and “agreed to continue to monitor the situation closely,” the U.K. Treasury said.

“They can talk until they are blue in the face -- the markets are looking for action, and soon,” Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income sales, trading and research at brokerage firm Morgan Keegan Inc. in Memphis, Tennessee, wrote in a note to clients. “We in this country have learned exactly what a crisis of confidence can do to a market and the economy.”

The rate banks say they pay for three-month loans in dollars rose the most in almost 16 months as lending sputtered amid concern financial institutions are holding too many assets of Europe’s most indebted nations.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three- month loans climbed 5.5 basis points to 0.428 percent yesterday, the highest level since Aug. 17, according to British Bankers’ Association data. It was the biggest rise since Jan. 16, 2009.

‘Uncertainty’ the Enemy

“You need to have more of a widespread conviction that this is somehow being resolved, otherwise you’re going to continue to go through this uncertainty, and uncertainty is the enemy of any financial market,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.

Job growth in the U.S. will need to continue for several months along the lines of yesterday’s gain before the Fed considers raising interest rates, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest mutual fund.

“The Fed’s not about to move, in my opinion, until we start to see significant, steady progress in terms of job growth and lower unemployment rates,” Gross said during a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene.

Interest-Rate Bets

Futures on the CME Group Inc. exchange yesterday showed a 52 percent chance policy makers will raise the target rate for overnight bank lending by at least a quarter-percentage point by December, compared with 75 percent odds a month ago. The central bank has kept the rate between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008.

The Treasury will auction $78 billion in notes and bonds next week, the first reduction in sales of coupon-bearing securities since May 2007. The department said May 5 it will sell $38 billion in three-year notes on May 11, $24 billion in 10-year debt the next day and $16 billion in 30-year bonds on May 13.

The total was less than the $80 billion median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of the Fed’s 18 primary dealers, which anticipated $39 billion in three-year notes and $25 billion in 10 year securities.