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greenbear
9th May 2010, 11:15 PM
http://www.gata.org/node/8611

In Treasury report, shocking evidence of silver price suppression
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2010-05-07 17:42. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Adrian Douglas
Friday, May 7, 2010

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has just released the Quarter 4 2009 bank derivatives report, which can be found here:

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2010-33a.pdf

This report contains shocking new evidence that can be interpreted only as blatant manipulation of the silver market. Before looking at that evidence specifically, consider some other important points in the report:

"Executive Summary.

"-- The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks increased $8.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, or 4.2 percent, to $212.8 trillion.

"-- U.S. commercial banks reported trading revenues of $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter, down 66 percent from $5.7 billion in the third quarter. For the year, banks reported record trading revenues of $22.6 billion, compared to a loss of $836 million in 2008.

"-- In the fourth quarter, net current credit exposure decreased 18 percent, or $86 billion, to $398 billion. Net current credit exposure dropped 50 percent during 2009.

"-- Derivative contracts remain concentrated in interest rate products, which comprise 84 percent of total derivative notional values. The notional value of credit derivative contracts, at $14 trillion, represents 7 percent of total notionals. Credit derivatives notional totals increased by 8 percent during the quarter."

Imagine: an increase of $8.5 trillion in notional value of derivatives in just three months.

It sure looks like the banks are working hard to reduce risk and avoid a recurrence of the financial meltdown of 2008 that was caused by the failure of Lehman Bros. and its monstrously oversized derivatives book.

It also looks like the regulators are working hard to make sure that the risks are not concentrated in a few banks that are "too big to fail." The comments in parentheses are mine, not those of the OCC, although you could probably have worked that out for yourself:

"A total of 1,030 insured U.S. commercial banks reported derivatives activities at the end of the fourth quarter, a decrease of 35 banks from the prior quarter.

"Derivatives activity in the U.S. banking system continues to be dominated by a small group of large financial institutions. Five large commercial banks represent 97 percent of the total banking industry notional amounts and 88 percent of industry net current credit exposure. While market or product concentrations are normally a concern for bank supervisors, there are three important mitigating factors with respect to derivatives activities.

"First, because this report focuses on U.S. commercial banking companies, there are a number of other providers of derivatives products whose activity is not reflected in the data in this report."

(Do you seriously expect us to believe that these other providers significantly dilute a 97 percent monopoly?)

"Second, because the highly specialized business of structuring, trading, and managing derivatives transactions requires sophisticated tools and expertise, derivatives activity is concentrated in those banking companies that have the resources needed to be able to operate this business in a safe and sound manner."

(You have to be kidding me! Where have you guys at the Treasury been the last two years?)

"Third, the OCC and other supervisors have examiners on-site at the largest banks to continuously evaluate the credit, market, operation, reputation, and compliance risks of derivatives activities."

(And how did that work out for you in 2008?)

"In addition to the OCC's on-site supervisory activities, the OCC continues to work with other financial supervisors and major market participants to address infrastructure issues in OTC derivatives, including development of objectives and milestones for stronger trade processing and improved market transparency across all OTC derivatives categories."

(How much more "transparency" do you need to "see" that $206 trillion of derivatives in five banks with combined assets of a measly $5.4 trillion is a "daisy-cutter" bomb big enough to wipe out all things paper on the planet?)

You have to love those "mitigating factors" that the regulators offer as to why five banks owning 97 percent of $213 trillion of derivatives is not a problem. The increase in notional value of all derivatives in just three months is equal to 75 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. Do the "sophisticated tools" that these bankers require to write derivative contracts include bongs and the strongest hallucinatory drugs on the planet?

Let's have a look at the gold and precious metals derivatives and compare Q3 to Q4 2009.

The gold derivatives of all maturities declined 1.3 percent to $99.9 billion, which was due to a decline in JPMorgan Chase (JPM) holdings of 1 percent to $82.1 billion and a decline in HSBC holdings of 11.2 percent to $16.2 billion.

But the real shocker is in silver. The precious metals (silver) derivatives of all maturities increased by a mind-boggling 37 percent, from $9.29 billion to $12.8 billion. This came principally from increases in the less-than-one-year maturities where the JPM holdings increased 34 percent to $6.76 billion and HSBC holdings increased 58 percent to $4.7 billion. (Despite the radically different percentage increases, interestingly the increases at JPM and HSBC were identical in dollar amounts at $1.7 billion.)

This increase in notional value of silver derivatives represents approximately 220 million ounces, which is 125 percent of the global production of silver during the quarter -- and that is only the increase. The entire notional value represents 106 percent of annual global production.

What possible legitimate purpose could such a monstrous derivative position be serving with a maturity of less than one year?

The only purpose I can think of is for manipulation of the silver market. I am not a regulator but I can't think of any "mitigating factors" for that.

Serpo
10th May 2010, 05:40 PM
JP Morgan's Alleged Manipulation of the Silver Market
A Modern Day Metals Conspiracy Theory

By Adam Sharp
Monday, May 10th, 2010

On Friday, something strange happened in silver markets.

I was sitting at my desk, eating some Fritos and daydreaming about the weekend.

Suddenly, silver spiked 5% and I was jolted out of my pleasant daze.



The Chinese Economy Grew 11.9% Last Quarter

The Chinese economy is on fire. Car sales jumped 76%. This $9.62 company, which you've never heard of, makes the best-selling car in China.

The last time we picked it, it went up 207% in six months. The world's greatest investor liked it so much he bought 10% of the shares!

But you better own this stock soon.

The company plans to sell its car in the U.S. this summer. Buy now, before everyone else pushes up the stock.

The move happened fast and silver barely budged for the rest of the day. Clearly, something happened. Action like that shown in the chart below doesn't just occur naturally in the market.

The red line shows 1-day silver prices for Friday (chart courtesy of kitco.com).



I walked over to my colleague Ian Cooper's desk. "What the hell's going on with silver?" I asked.

He didn't know. Nobody did. A news search turned up zilch.

Gold was near flat and ended the day up less than 1%. The dollar was down, but only by 0.5% or so. So the silver move was isolated.

The price jump was a mystery, apparently — the good kind of mystery, if you own silver miners and bullion like I do.

I didn't think anything else of it.

But this weekend, I came across an article that may shine some light on the spike.

Saturday's NY Post had a story about JP Morgan's (NYSE: JPM) possible role in silver market manipulation. According to The Post, the CFTC and Justice Department have launched both civil and criminal investigations into the matter.

JP Morgan has long been accused of depressing silver prices, along with several other "bullion banks." Some theories say they are acting as agents of the Treasury Dept., keeping metal prices down makes the dollar more attractive as a reserve currency. Some think they're just doing it to reap huge profits by moving entire markets.

But this is the first we've heard of an official investigation with the possibility of criminal charges being filed.

Gold & Silver Conspiracy Theorists Vindicated?

Organizations like GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) have been sounding the alarm about manipulation of precious metal markets for years. They accuse big banks like JP Morgan "naked" shorts on silver and gold — meaning they are promising something they could never actually deliver.

GATA and other goldbugs have been dismissed as tinfoil-hat wearing morons all along (much like those who said Goldman Sachs was engaged in fraudulent sub-prime schemes... and we know how that turned out).

Now it appears that these "kooks" may have been onto something. They're not vindicated quite yet, but their story is starting to look a lot more credible. The non-believers among us may have to don tinfoil hats and do some grovelling before this is all over.

Because this doesn't appear to be your typical wrist-slapping exercise, where the SEC fines a bank some percentage of the profits they reaped from the illegal act, and nobody is forced to admit fault.

We're talking about a full-blown criminal investigation by the Justice Department here. This could be huge.

Why Now?

Apparently Obama is taking notice of his abysmally low approval ratings. As a result, he's desperate to kill the widely-perceived notion that he's in bed with the banks.

Just a thought — but perhaps Obama shouldn't have stacked his appointees with banksters in the first place...

I digress.

Regardless, it's clear that the administration is putting pressure on financial regulators. The regulators, in turn, are putting the screws to the biggest (and most reviled) financial firms. We heard last week about the SEC's fraud case against Goldman Sachs.

And just this weekend, Moody's revealed that the SEC may revoke their status as an officially-recognized ratings firm.

Like all horribly-embarrassing corporate announcements, Moody's was made after the close of trading on a Friday. Evidently Moody's execs hoped everybody would forget about it by Monday. Not so, as shares are currently trading down 8%.

But the JP Morgan investigation could turn out to be the biggest case of all.

JPM is the largest financial firm in the United States, boasting $2 trillion in assets. They're also the largest hedge fund manager in the States, with $53 billion under management.

If it turns out they have been illicitly shorting billions worth of silver contracts, as some allege — and they're forced to buy bullion to cover that position — the result would be staggering.

Implications for Silver Prices

We don't know exactly how this investigation will affect silver prices going forward. But if the allegations prove true and banks are forced to cover massive short positions, a relatively thin silver market could see a big squeeze — and far higher prices.

But cutting out market manipulation is only one factor that may work in silver's favor.

Bernanke's printing press is the other big one. With interest rates likely to remain near 0% for years, inflation will inevitably rear its ugly head. Plus, you can forget about the Fed shrinking their balance sheet any time soon...

All that "exit strategy" talk is nothing more than bluster. I think the Fed is far more likely to expand buying programs further before they consider ditching the garbage on their books. As Milton Friedman pointed out, there's nothing so permanent as a "temporary" government program.

In the long run, American reliance on Fed easing will push precious metals prices higher. Ignore scare talk about deflation — it simply isn't allowed to happen in modern times.

In the Great Depression deflation was absolutely an issue — but the dollar was tied to gold back then. Bernanke will dump enough cash to drown Wall Street before deflation is ever allowed to occur. It would simply crush the big banks, and these institutions are too connected to fail.

How High Can Silver Fly?

More and more respected analysts are calling for $50 silver.

David Rosenberg, respected former head economist at Merrill Lynch, recently predicted gold would go to $3,000 over the next few years. If it does, I expect silver to outperform percentage-wise. The historic ratio of silver/gold is out of whack, and silver is due for a huge bull run.

If these scenarios play out, the best way to play it is with junior silver miners. These companies are highly-levered to underlying metal prices.

Well-chosen mining picks could easily see rise four times more than the metal itself does. If silver goes up 200%, a good mining pick could go up 800% or more.

My colleague Luke Burgess, editor of Hard Money Millionaire, has a report detailing his top three ways to play the silver bull market.

Luke gives his top silver mining pick, plus the best way to buy silver bullion — and details on how to invest in a unique security with the potential to generate 4-digit returns over the coming years. Learn how to cash in on monster silver bull-market here.

And stay nimble out there... This market has danger written all over it.

Adam Sharp
Analyst, Wealth Daily
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/jp-morgans-manipulation-of-the-silver-market/2478