Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach See Increasingly More Frequent And More Dire Cris

[MNeagle]

Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach See Increasingly More Frequent And More Dire Crises Coming Up


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2010 11:32 -0500

EurozoneMorgan StanleyStephen Roach


Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene earlier, pointing out the most troubling statistic about recent market activity, which has to do with both the frequency and amplitude of catastrophes: "The crises are coming with greater frequency. Over the last 25 years we have had an average of one crisis every 3 years. The gap this time is 18 months. The scale is bigger. This is a much more serious problem in the eurozone than the Asian financial crisis." So intercrisis half-life continues to decline as the severity jumps exponentially. In other words, in nine months we will need a combined Fed-ECB-BOE-PBoC-BOJ effort for about $10 trillion just to calm the markets. 4.5 months after that, $100 trillion more... And so forth. Enjoy.


video at link: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanleys-stephen-roach-see-increasingly-more-frequent-and-more-dire-crises-coming?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedg e+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+fo r+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

[Book]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_kt2fNJnXwZ8/SCZKmR7UI-I/AAAAAAAAAFk/1rfFSsmg7sQ/s400/plate%2Bspinner.jpg

Plate Spinners get overwhelmed eventually.

:D

[keehah]

Mainstream Jubilee talk will extend the act!

Consumer Debt Forgiveness May Be Needed: Roach (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44229642)
Published: Monday, 22 Aug 2011 | By: Margo D. Beller Special to CNBC.com

American consumers have too much debt, not enough savings and are afraid they will lose their jobs—if they haven't lost them already.

It might be time for something that hasn't been done since the 1930s to get Americans spending again: national debt forgiveness, Stephen Roach told CNBC Monday.

A stronger dollar or higher interest rates would encourage consumption and saving, Roach said, but he prefers the more "direct approach" of coming up with "ways to forgive the excesses of mortgage, installment and revolving credit, as what was done in the 1930s, that will help consumers get through the pain of deleveraging sooner rather than later."

The nonexecutive chairman at Morgan Stanley Asia and senior fellow at Yale's Jackson Institute said the American consumer makes up 71 percent of gross domestic product, but growth is up only 0.2 percent over the last 14 months.



"The American consumer...is going nowhere," he said. It’s a Japanese style balance sheet correction. If we don’t address that, all the public policy aimed at the fiscal and monetary stimuluses are going to be pushing on a string."

Debt forgiveness may hurt lenders, Roach said, but "they’re the ones who wrote the bad loans and they're the ones who had the free ride. There's no gain without some pain and we have to decide who in society has to bear the brunt of that."

At the same time, "politicians don’t want to inflict pain on any constituency," Roach said. "We have a leadership deficit. People are unwilling to take the tough choices and say, 'This is going to be painful for a while, but we’re going to come out the other side.' "

[Glass]

Geez, I hope he doesn't end up on a list as well.


Debt forgiveness may hurt lenders, Roach said, but "they’re the ones who wrote the bad loans and they're the ones who had the free ride. There's no gain without some pain and we have to decide who in society has to bear the brunt of that."

Truth seeping through the cracks..... soon it will be rushing through and the proverbial poor little dutch boy won't have fingers big enough to plug the holes.

[jimswift]

Read that debt forgiveness BS yesterday, my question has always been, well what do the folks whom don't have massive debt get?

You can't very well give insolvent, bankrupt A-holes bags full of cash and not do the same for the non-debtors.

The whole idea is absurd to the point of the person drooling this crap out their sewer deserving a slap in the face from anyone within reach.

[keehah]

Read that debt forgiveness BS yesterday, my question has always been, well what do the folks whom don't have massive debt get?

They would get the same treatment that those who worked hard and saved the wealth as fiat cash are getting. Screwed.