GSUS-APMEX Precious Metals Retail Supply Index

[JohnQPublic]

Definitions

Silver: Number of all 10 oz. bars available (currently 9,631 10 ozt. bars)

Gold: Number of all random year and current year 1 ozt. Eagles, Maples, Phils and Krugs (including the Vancouver Maples), currently 2748

If any reading exceeds 9999, then follow the number by a "+". Right now the total is less than 9999, so it will be interesting to watch in the near term.

Initial Index Reading

Silver Index, May 11th (5:21 PM): 9,631
Gold Index, May 11th (5:21 PM): 2,748

This is similar (but simpler) than one I tried on Kitco (https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=45164&highlight=Apmex). Then the silver index was over 25,000 (I took out the 100 oz.)- more than 2.5x current (that was June 2009).


Logic:

Popular 1 ozt. gold coins will go first (leading indicator). Silver 10 ozt. bars will go towards the end (lagging indicator). This index is designed to spot a major supply depletion, not to monitor Apmex. Apmex was chosen since they make inventory data available, and they are a major dealer.

[DMac]

5-12-2010 9:45am

Apmex Top 40 (http://www.apmex.com/APMEXTop40/Default.aspx)


SOLD OUT

(1/10 oz) Gold American Eagle - Random Year

(1/4 oz) Gold American Eagle - Random Year

(1/2 oz) Gold American Eagle - Random Year

(1 oz) Gold Buffalo - Random Year

Canada (1 oz) Gold Maple Leaf - Random Year

South Africa 2010 1 oz Gold Krugerrand

Great Britain Gold Sovereigns - (Almost Uncirculated or Better!)

__________________________________________


Limited Supply:
(1 oz) Gold American Eagle - Random Year 1366 available
2010 1 oz Gold Eagles 872 available
*2010* 1 oz Gold Buffalo Coins 356 available
2010 - (1 oz) Gold Maple Leaf 107 available
(1 oz) Gold Krugerrand - Random Year ( not until May 21 st!!! ) 66 available for later delivery
1 oz Austrian Philharmonic Gold Coins 15 available
2010 - 1 oz (Gold) Austrian Philharmonics 36 available


_____________________________________

1 oz Silver American Eagles - Brilliant Uncirculated 4326 available

Silver not sold out, but inventory not very high looking through the various pieces available.

[JohnQPublic]

1:43 PST 5/12/2010

Silver Index: 9075 diff= -556 (-5.8%)
Gold Index: 2214 diff= -534 (-19.4%)

[gunDriller]

they're down to 17 1/4 ounce 2009 AGE's. they had a few hundred a few days ago.

kind of pricey, $345.

this is in addition to no-stock conditions for random year 1/10, 1/4, and 1/2 ounce AGE's.

http://www.apmex.com/Resources/Catalog%20Images/Products/48685_obv.jpg

man, they are pretty.

plus they are out of random year Gold 1 Ounce Maples ... and they're down to 19 Krugerrands.

plus they're out of 2010 Gold Maples and Krugerrands.

So when those Krugs are gone - I guess 1 ounce buyers will be digging into the supply of 1 ounce American Gold Eagles. APMex has 1107 of those, down from 1300+ earlier in the day.

i would say there is some pretty vigorous buying going on. people are loading up as if gold was $1060 an ounce or something.

i wouldn't mind getting those 1/4 ounce Gold Eagles for $1060 an ounce. 8)

oh yeah, this is at 4:35 Pacific time.

[JohnQPublic]

..So when those Krugs are gone - I guess 1 ounce buyers will be digging into the supply of 1 ounce American Gold Eagles. ...

Ultimately all that will be left are the 1 ozt. gold bars (not as popular in the US). They have some hundreds of those (forgot the number).

[Horn]

kind of pricey, $345.

Holy B'geesus!!!

I remember when I used to let those slide around at the bottom of my purse..

*(By purse I mean man purse, or wallet) 8)

[StackerKen]

Very Interesting :)

[Defender]

It would be interesting, might be useful, to also track the premium being tacked onto things to see if it increases substantially as things worsen.

[StackerKen]

It would be interesting, might be useful, to also track the premium being tacked onto things to see if it increases substantially as things worsen.


You mean something like the old fashioned "Supply and Demand" could make a comeback?

[Neuro]

It would be interesting, might be useful, to also track the premium being tacked onto things to see if it increases substantially as things worsen.


You mean something like the old fashioned "Supply and Demand" could make a comeback?
Stop swearing Ken!

[JohnQPublic]

1:15 PST

Gold: 1327 diff = -887 (-40%)
Silver: 9068 diff = -7 (-0.08%)

Gold flying off the shelves! Silver either not moving or being replenished. Gold Maples gone (a few Vancouvers). Krugs gone. A few Phils (106). Over 1000 Gold Eagles.

[JohnQPublic]

Add premum index as suggested by Defender.

Gold = 100*(POG-SPOT-bid)/SPOT-bid : Use 1 oz. gold eagles (APMEX), random year, single coin price
Silver = 100*(POS-SPOT-bid)/SPOT-bid: Use 1 oz. silver eagles (APMEX), random year, single coin price

Use APMEX posted spot-bid.

Gold Premium = 4.93%
Silver Premium = 15.11%

[JohnQPublic]

May 14, 2:47 PST

Gold: 2771 diff = +1444 (+109%)
Silver: 7822 diff = -1246 (-13.7%)

Gold Premium: 4.94%
Silver Premium: 15.21%

Apmex replenished their 1 ozt. gold coins, apparently (looks like Eagles).

[gunDriller]

i think the 1/4 ounce Maples Krugs and Eagles make a very good barometer.

it's a simple list.

1/4 ounce Random Year Eagle - none.

1/4 ounce 2010 Eagle - none.

1/4 ounce RY Maple - 33

1/4 ounce 2010 Maple - none

1/4 ounce RY Krug - 26

1/4 ounce 2010 Krug - 95

Saturday morning May 15, 8 AM Eastern time.

[JohnQPublic]

May 16, 11:00 PM PST

Gold: 2477 diff = -294 (-10.6%)
Silver: 8544 diff = +722 (+9.2%)

Gold Premium: 4.91%
Silver Premium: 15.27%

No big changes. New silver.

[jedemdasseine]

For grins I inventoried all the available platinum.

380.5674 ounces total.

No platinum maples.

[jedemdasseine]

748.658 total ounces of palladium.

[gunDriller]

1/4 ounce Random Year Eagle - none.

1/4 ounce 2010 Eagle - none.

1/4 ounce RY Maple - none.

1/4 ounce 2010 Maple - none.

1/4 ounce RY Krug - 9 left

1/4 ounce 2010 Krug - none.

Tuesday morning May 18, 8:20 AM Eastern time.

[JohnQPublic]

May 18th 11:31 PM PST

Gold: 3667 diff = +1190 (+48%)
Silver: 9288 diff = +744 (+8.7%)

Gold Premium: 5.03%
Silver Premium: 15.78%

New gold and silver. Premiums creeping up with dropping price.

[JohnQPublic]

May 20th, 11:17AM PST

Gold: 995 diff = -2,672 (-72.9%)
Silver: 8367 diff = -921 (-9.9%)

Gold Premium: 4.31%
Silver Premium: 13.26%

Talk about buying on the dip! 2672 ounces of gold (mainly eagles) sold yesterday.
Premiums down a bit, too.

Though not part of the index, I note that they have 648 @ 1ozt bars (and Nova Scotia rounds) in stock, plus 241 @1 ozt Buffs.

NOTE: At 1:53 PM PST it is up to 2174. They just added some Gold Eagles.

[JohnQPublic]

May 23rd 7:44 PM PST

Gold: 1901 (noted it was upt to 2174 last entry)
Silver: 7054 diff = -1313 (-15.7%, 3 days)

Gold Premium: 5.15%
Silver Premium: -----

Could not calculate silver premium- Apmex is currently out of current year (and random year) silver eagles.

[JohnQPublic]

May 25th 7:00 PM PST

Gold: 1544 dif = -357 (-18.8%, 2 days)
Silver: 7797 dif = +743 (+10.5%, 2 days)

Gold Premium = 5.06%
Silver Premium = 16.9% (based on June delivery Eagles)

Premium on silver up a bit, maybe to hedge future deliveries.

[JohnQPublic]

May 27th 9PM PST

Gold: 1552 dif = +8 (+0.5%)
Silver: 7527 dif = -270 (-3.5%)

Gold Premium: 5.01%
Silver Premium: 16.7%

No big changes. Note that I am calculating silver premium on silver eagles promised for June 9th release like May 25th.

I did not count 244 1 ozt. Krugerands promised for June 9th release. When they are ready to send I will count.

[JohnQPublic]

June 2nd 12:34 PM PST

Gold: 2114 dif = +562 (+36%, 6 days%)
Silver: 8043 dif = +516 (+6.8%, 6 days)

Gold Premium: 4.99%
Silver Premium: 16.6%

[uranian]

US mint is out of silver again i read somewhere. good idea for a thread, JQP.

[JohnQPublic]

US mint is out of silver again i read somewhere. good idea for a thread, JQP.


And gold, too. Though I think it is only the collector's series (proofs, etc.).

[JohnQPublic]

June 2nd 12:34 PM PST

Gold: 3912 dif = +1798 (+85%, 2 days)
Silver: 9188 dif = +1145 (+14.3%, 2 days)

Gold Premium: 5.00%
Silver Premium: 17.4%

Big lot of Maples in. Looks like Westgold.de was also advertising Maples in a scrolling banner ad.

Silver premiums up a bit as the price dropped drastically today.

[DMac]

US mint is out of silver again i read somewhere. good idea for a thread, JQP.


And gold, too. Though I think it is only the collector's series (proofs, etc.).


US Mint runs out of silver:
Link (http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&categoryId=10120&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10191&top_category=10191)



US mint out of not only silver, but gold eagles also due to unprecedented demand:

Link (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-mint-out-not-only-silver-gold-american-eagles-well)

[JohnQPublic]

US mint is out of silver again i read somewhere. good idea for a thread, JQP.


"Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. Currently, all available silver bullion blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .�



And gold, too. Though I think it is only the collector's series (proofs, etc.).


"Production of United States Mint American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins. Currently, all available 22-karat gold blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-185 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .�


So collectors series coins are discontinued, but bullion coins are still being produced.

[JohnQPublic]

June 7th 5:14 PM PST

Gold: 3086 dif = -857 (-21.9%, 3 days)
Silver: 8515 dif = -673 (-7.3%, 3 days)

Gold Premium: 4.91%
Silver Premium: 16.8%

[JohnQPublic]

June 8th 9:27PM PST

Gold: 2738 dif = -348 (-11.3%)
Silver: 8146 dif = -369 (-4.3%)

Gold Premium: 4.52%
Silver Premium: 16.6%

[JohnQPublic]

June 11th 1:08PM PST

Gold: 5490 dif = +2752 (+100.5%, 3 days)
Silver: 7946 dif = -200 (-2.5%, 3 days)

Gold Premium: 4.81%
Silver Premium: 16.7%

Big increase in popular 1 ozt. gold bullion coins.

[JohnQPublic]

June 14th 12:33 PM PST

Gold: 5150 dif = -340 (-6.6%, 3 days)
Silver: 7663 dif = -283 (-3.6%, 3 days)

Gold Premium: 4.84%
Silver Premium: 16.6%

[JohnQPublic]

June 22nd, 7:44 PM, PST

Gold: 6016 dif = +469 (+9.1%, 8 days)
Silver: 7983 dif = +320 (+4.2%, 3 days)

Gold Premium: 4.75%
Silver Premium: 15.6%

Plenty of gold for the moment, plus dropping premiums for both metals.

[JohnQPublic]

July 1sy, 9:49 PM, PST

Gold: 13,526 dif = +7510 (+124.8%, 10 days)
Silver: 6127 dif = -1856 (-23.2%, 10 days)

Gold Premium: 5.06%
Silver Premium: 16.45%


Huge jump in gold inventory. Watch this.

[JohnQPublic]

Anecdotal evidence from Tulvig (http://gold-silver.us/forum/silver/we-shipped-about-100-000-ozs-of-silver-each-day-during-the-first-3-days-of-the-w/new/#new) that J6P is switching to silver. Note that APMEX is increasing retail gold supply, but steadily selling silver.

[gunDriller]

Anecdotal evidence from Tulvig (http://gold-silver.us/forum/silver/we-shipped-about-100-000-ozs-of-silver-each-day-during-the-first-3-days-of-the-w/new/#new) that J6P is switching to silver. Note that APMEX is increasing retail gold supply, but steadily selling silver.


how about in terms of total dollars spent ? anyway to get a breakdown on that, gold vs. silver ?

it would be interesting. they say the gold market is bigger, the silver market is smaller & easier to manipulate.

20,000 tons silver per year

2500 tons gold per year

with an annual production ratio of 8:1 and a price ratio of 1:68, i guess gold has the higher dollar volume, for annual production, which is not the same as the total market.

[Defender]

Reports of coin shortages:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php

While on the subject of silver, my coin guy informed me yesterday that the Royal Canadian Mint is running two to four weeks behind on virtually all of their bullion products right now... especially the 0.9999 silver Maple Leaf. And, to top that off, Chris Powell sent me an e-mail from someone that had just contacted Kitco about purchasing silver coins and rounds... and this is the reply he got... "Good afternoon Sir/Madam, Thank you for your e-mail. Unfortunately, many of the Silver products we sell, are currently out of stock for Canadians. As such, the items are 'Only Shipping to the US '. Certain products are 'Only shipping to the US ' due to our inventory at our Vaults in Canada. In other words our inventory is too low (depending on the item) to accept any new orders from Canadian or International customers. As such, we would simply have sufficient inventory to sell the items to US customer as we also have Vaults located in the United States from where our products are also shipped. The product will be once again available, when we receive a new shipment of inventory. In the mean time we suggest signing up for our ‘Bullion Alert Service' which provides an e-mail notification as soon as a shipment arrives for the item(s) selected." Here's a link to Kitco's product page. Except for the 1,000 ounce good delivery bar, they are completely out of all silver inventory for Canadian and international customers. Only if you live in the USA is there anything available at all.

[JohnQPublic]

July 24th, 10:30 AM, PST

Gold: 7080 dif = -6446 (-47.7%, 23 days)
Silver: 8837 dif = +2710 (+44.2%, 23 days)

Gold Premium: 5.13%
Silver Premium: 16.2%

[Libertarian_Guard]

For grins I inventoried all the available platinum.

380.5674 ounces total.

No platinum maples.


http://i29.tinypic.com/sq0fmo.jpg

I've seen your avatar statue before, outside the Uffizi.

[JohnQPublic]

August 13th, 12:51 PM, PST

Gold: 11080 dif = -4000 (+56.5%, 20 days)
Silver: 8475 dif = -362 (-4.1%, 20 days)

Gold Premium: 4.86%
Silver Premium: 15.7%

Still a relatively high gold inventory.

[JohnQPublic]

September 2nd 9:44 PM, PST

Gold: 9351 dif = -1729 (-15.6%, 20 days)
Silver: 7311 dif = -1164 (-13.7%, 20 days)

Gold Premium: 4.87%
Silver Premium: 14.5%

[JohnQPublic]

Septembert 16th, 9:58 AM, PST

Gold: 9611 dif = +260 (+2.7%, 14 days)
Silver: 5422 dif = -1899 (-26%, 14 days)

Gold Premium: 4.8%
Silver Premium: 8.9%

Silver is leaving pretty fast. What is really interesting is that Apmex has cut the premium to 61% of what it was previously. There was a drop in silver premiums from August 13th to Sept. 2nd, but it was smaller.

[Neuro]

Septembert 16th, 9:58 AM, PST

Gold: 9611 dif = +260 (+2.7%, 14 days)
Silver: 5422 dif = -1899 (-26%, 14 days)

Gold Premium: 4.8%
Silver Premium: 8.9%

Silver is leaving pretty fast. What is really interesting is that Apmex has cut the premium to 61% of what it was previously. There was a drop in silver premiums from August 13th to Sept. 2nd, but it was smaller.


That must mean they expect the price of silver to drop soon, and they want to be out of inventory at that point... Could bite them in the ass...

[JohnQPublic]

October 1st, 10:35 PM, PST

Gold: 7262 dif = -2349 (-24.4%, 15 days)
Silver: 4055 dif = -1367 (-25.2%, 15 days)

Gold Premium: 4.8%
Silver Premium: 14.2%

Silver inventory is getting lower. No net replenishment obvious. Gold is steadily depleting, but no rapid drawdown yet. Other than the one drop in premiums last reading, silver premium is close to where it has been since this index started (a little lower).

[JohnQPublic]

October 11th, 2:47 PM, PST

Gold: 9237 dif = +1975 (+27%, 10 days)
Silver: 4479 dif = +424 (+10.5)

Gold Premium: 4.6%
Silver Premium: 16.9%

Gold got some replensihment. Silver inventory still low relative to the norm recently. Silver premiums increasing- possibly due to recent announcements regarding price increases coming.

[Neuro]

October 11th, 2:47 PM, PST

Gold: 9237 dif = +1975 (+27%, 10 days)
Silver: 4479 dif = +424 (+10.5)

Gold Premium: 4.6%
Silver Premium: 16.9%

Gold got some replensihment. Silver inventory still low relative to the norm recently. Silver premiums increasing- possibly due to recent announcements regarding price increases coming.
Seems like it did bit them in the ass... Apmex must have sold out a month ago with prices that were at least 4 dollars lower than their selling prices are today...

[JohnQPublic]

October 11th, 2:47 PM, PST

Gold: 9237 dif = +1975 (+27%, 10 days)
Silver: 4479 dif = +424 (+10.5)

Gold Premium: 4.6%
Silver Premium: 16.9%

Gold got some replensihment. Silver inventory still low relative to the norm recently. Silver premiums increasing- possibly due to recent announcements regarding price increases coming.
Seems like it did bit them in the ass... Apmex must have sold out a month ago with prices that were at least 4 dollars lower than their selling prices are today...


What is really interesting is that Apmex is partnered with JPM. In Sept. they lowered premiums on silver. Somebody thought that the price of silver would decline. Suddenly, price turns and shoots higher. This is a a circumstantial indication that somebody, perhaps a somebody with a heck-of-a-lot of silver shorts, got really surprised at the turn of events this month. ;)

[Neuro]

October 11th, 2:47 PM, PST

Gold: 9237 dif = +1975 (+27%, 10 days)
Silver: 4479 dif = +424 (+10.5)

Gold Premium: 4.6%
Silver Premium: 16.9%

Gold got some replensihment. Silver inventory still low relative to the norm recently. Silver premiums increasing- possibly due to recent announcements regarding price increases coming.
Seems like it did bit them in the ass... Apmex must have sold out a month ago with prices that were at least 4 dollars lower than their selling prices are today...


What is really interesting is that Apmex is partnered with JPM. In Sept. they lowered premiums on silver. Somebody thought that the price of silver would decline. Suddenly, price turns and shoots higher. This
is a a circumstantial indication that somebody, perhaps a somebody with a heck-of-a-lot of silver shorts, got really surprised at the turn of events this month. ;)

Could very well be... Yes I know that Apmex started banking with JPM, but as far as I am aware they are not owned by them. Unless someone can prove a more direct link to JPM with Apmex I would be more inclined to believe that Apmex themselves independently of JPM decided to go short on primarily silver, because they expected a deep pull back. And they were caught with their pants down, no doubt JPM, has probably also a big loss in their trading too.

[JohnQPublic]

October 18th, 5:28 PM, PST

Gold: 10,639 dif = +1402 (+15.2%, 7 days)
Silver: 1773 dif = -2706 (-60.4%, 7days) :o

Gold Premium: 4.8%
Silver Premium: 18.2%


SIlver is flying out the door, and not being replenished. Silver premiums appear to be rising. Silver, the New Gold.
Gold is increasing, and plentiful, at least in 1 ozt.

[Answer2me]

JPQ,

I know you follow harvey and the like and seemed to be well versed on inventories. you might find this interesting. There are coin shops and shops that specialize in bullion only. I only know of 3 bullion shops on the west coast. I think these guys have a better understanding of what is going on than apmex. One that i frequent has a different view of the silver supply. I asked him about inventory and he said he was running low on one ounce coins (maples, eagles, ect.) also running low on anything under a 100 oz. He can get 100 oz bars and kilo bars all day long its just that JOSP cant afford to buy them. Obiviously the demand has risen, but its a demand for a certain type of silver. I bet we will see premieums on good clean sellable small denomenational coins go up-way up! we have already seen this with GSE's and the mint. If i wanted to change 100,000 into silver it wouldnt be a problem, i would buy bullion. Its the small invester that will pay the high premieums. BTW the premium per hundred oz bar is between .30-.40 cents per ounce. much better than paying $5 over spot per american eagle. It would be better for the small investor to wait until he had the cash to buy a 100oz bar, if the price of silver rises, depending how much, he would still save money. The other day i noticed a kid buying 4 maples on his lunch brake. I bet that was a lot for him and he seemed proud to have them in his hands. Interestingly he had a name badge on, he worked for a local bank.

[JohnQPublic]

JPQ,

I know you follow harvey and the like and seemed to be well versed on inventories. you might find this interesting. There are coin shops and shops that specialize in bullion only. I only know of 3 bullion shops on the west coast. I think these guys have a better understanding of what is going on than apmex. One that i frequent has a different view of the silver supply. I asked him about inventory and he said he was running low on one ounce coins (maples, eagles, ect.) also running low on anything under a 100 oz. He can get 100 oz bars and kilo bars all day long its just that JOSP cant afford to buy them. Obiviously the demand has risen, but its a demand for a certain type of silver. I bet we will see premieums on good clean sellable small denomenational coins go up-way up! we have already seen this with GSE's and the mint. If i wanted to change 100,000 into silver it wouldnt be a problem, i would buy bullion. Its the small invester that will pay the high premieums. BTW the premium per hundred oz bar is between .30-.40 cents per ounce. much better than paying $5 over spot per american eagle. It would be better for the small investor to wait until he had the cash to buy a 100oz bar, if the price of silver rises, depending how much, he would still save money. The other day i noticed a kid buying 4 maples on his lunch brake. I bet that was a lot for him and he seemed proud to have them in his hands. Interestingly he had a name badge on, he worked for a local bank.


Problem is that the small investor is getting ready for SHTF, and what do you do with a 100 ozt. bar? 90%, 1 ozt. generics, SAEs, frac. gold is much more useful, and easier to buy a little at a time.

There si still cheap generic out there, so that is a reasonable option.

Where are the bullion stores in CA?

[Answer2me]

JPQ,

I know you follow harvey and the like and seemed to be well versed on inventories. you might find this interesting. There are coin shops and shops that specialize in bullion only. I only know of 3 bullion shops on the west coast. I think these guys have a better understanding of what is going on than apmex. One that i frequent has a different view of the silver supply. I asked him about inventory and he said he was running low on one ounce coins (maples, eagles, ect.) also running low on anything under a 100 oz. He can get 100 oz bars and kilo bars all day long its just that JOSP cant afford to buy them. Obiviously the demand has risen, but its a demand for a certain type of silver. I bet we will see premieums on good clean sellable small denomenational coins go up-way up! we have already seen this with GSE's and the mint. If i wanted to change 100,000 into silver it wouldnt be a problem, i would buy bullion. Its the small invester that will pay the high premieums. BTW the premium per hundred oz bar is between .30-.40 cents per ounce. much better than paying $5 over spot per american eagle. It would be better for the small investor to wait until he had the cash to buy a 100oz bar, if the price of silver rises, depending how much, he would still save money. The other day i noticed a kid buying 4 maples on his lunch brake. I bet that was a lot for him and he seemed proud to have them in his hands. Interestingly he had a name badge on, he worked for a local bank.


Problem is that the small investor is getting ready for SHTF, and what do you do with a 100 ozt. bar? 90%, 1 ozt. generics, SAEs, frac. gold is much more useful, and easier to buy a little at a time.

There si still cheap generic out there, so that is a reasonable option.

Where are the bullion stores in CA?




By west coast i ment WA, OR, and CA. In cali you know them, Tulving and CNI. Whom you probably havnt heard of is a small place that doesnt advertise but has been around longer than both those stores. The owner told me that he used to supply CNI back in the day for whatever thats worth. Anyways, a place called American Coin and Vault up north in Washington. Walk in and you wont find much laying in the glass but ask and yee shall recieve. Best price on gold krugs 1 oz 30 over spot.

I agree, there is cheep generic to be had. seems that most prefer junk and the name brand stuff when buying in small amounts. I guess if i saved all week to buy a handful of rounds i would get the pretty stuff.

I prescibe to a different philosophy. It is not good to be investing out of fear "SHTF scenario", it fogs the mind. Besides, a few hundred oz of silver wont get you very far if the SHTF. I think i remember Ponce estimating one would need about 3000oz to make a difference. I think it is part of the human make up to be an active participent, it gives us hope, even if its in vain. I know this is a very heated debate on here but i see different possibilites that are more likely than a "SHTF scenario". Yes the @hit will hit the fan but i dont think we will ever go back to a barter, bimetal, PM currency. Yes Gold will be king but paper will circulate. I can thank FOFOA for this changed view.

[Answer2me]

on the 100oz bars. If things where that bad and your scenario plays out just cut an 1oz off at a time, literaly. Silver is still silver in any form.

[JohnQPublic]

My best first order estimate is that you would need about 113 ozt. silver or 113 grams of gold per month for a family to survive. Of course this assumes some stability in barter rates, etc., which is hard to predict.

What Do Silver and Gold Buy? (http://www.gold-silver.us/what_silver_gold_buys.html)

I agree, you could cut off pieces, and it should be fine once people are used to dealing with silver.

[Neuro]

My best first order estimate is that you would need about 113 ozt. silver or 113 grams of gold per month for a family to survive. Of course this assumes some stability in barter rates, etc., which is hard to predict.

What Do Silver and Gold Buy? (http://www.gold-silver.us/what_silver_gold_buys.html)

I agree, you could cut off pieces, and it should be fine once people are used to dealing with silver.


John I liked your article, but what was average expenditure in 1903 was not what was needed to survive. Probably there were families who survived on one tenth of the average, in 1903... But I think it is a good idea to have some food preps, apart from gold and silver, to weather the storm at least initially, but it is quite likely that traders will soon pick up on the idea to accept gold and silver for merchandise in a currency collapse situation. They will see what happens to the fiat money they hold when the currency collapse.

[JohnQPublic]

October 21st, 2010, 9:58 PM PST

Oops. I said APMEX only had 227 10 ozt. bars. They have 2740. I was in the wrong category (I think they created a new one). Still low inventory, but not empty yet.

[osoab]

Been awhile since you updated this JQP.

Looking at apmex they have 1 1986-2010 of SAE monster box in stock. Seems very low to me.

They have also instituted this MintDirect™ (http://www.apmex.com/Product/59617/MintDirect%E2%84%A2_2010_Silver_American_Eagles_20 _Coin_Tubes.aspx) thing for monster boxes.
When did this happen? I don't remember it a few days ago.

Still show 99999+ on 2010 SAE's, Around a thousand 2009 and 2008 SAE's. Under 700 in 2007 and 2006 SAE's.

[JohnQPublic]

November 22nd, 12:55 PM, PST

Gold: 7913 dif = +2726 (+25.6%, 36 days)
Silver: 2236 dif = +463 (+26.1%, 36 days)

Gold Premium: 5.1%
Silver Premium: 15.6%


Silver is being maintined at a low level. Apmex is advertising more 10 ozt. bars coming in soon. Gold appears plentiful.

[JohnQPublic]

Apmex down to 1298 10 ozt. bars available (more coming middle of january purportedly).

[JohnQPublic]

858 @ 10 ozt. silver bars currently available. Promising thousands in January 2011. Will they actually get it?

[ximmy]

Whatever happened to those 50 oz Sunshine bars they were advertising... I was going to purchase one and then *poof* ... they were gone...

[JohnQPublic]

359 @ 10 ozt. silver bars currently available. Still promsing 5000+ for January.

[JohnQPublic]

333 today.

[JohnQPublic]

1293. They got > 1000 generics to sell.

[JohnQPublic]

877 toay. 48 Ten Commandments bars promised for tomorrow. A bunch promised in January.

[JohnQPublic]

Now, 5680. They got a bunch of Silvertowne 10 ozers in.

[JohnQPublic]

Apmex now has > 10,000 10 ozt. bars. The silver they promised the 6th apparently came in.

[JohnQPublic]

Things are heating up a bit. Time to restart the monitoring.

Gold: 7,874
Silver: 14,732

Gold Premium: 5.2%
Silver Premium: 13.0%


Lots of silver. Gold pretty good. Bullionvault.com in germany is out of silver today (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bullionvaultcom-runs-out-silver-germany).

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX is awash in 10ozt. silver bars! They have 9999+ Apmex bars + thousands more of others! On the other hand they only have 4 @ $1000 90% face, so this not all resale. The APMEX bars appear to be new bars.

[JohnQPublic]

January 24, 2011
4:53 PM, PST

Gold: 8978 +1104 (+14.0%, 10 days)
Silver: 16,881+* +2152 (+14.6%, 10 days)

Gold Premium: 5.3%
Silver Premium: 16.9%

* APMEX silver bars register 9999, so I do not know the actual number (only have IE8 no this computer).

APMEX is still awash in silver. They also have 874 @ 100 ozt. bars and 2 @ 1000 ozt. bars (plus lots of other silver).
They have plenty of gold (and increasing).

[JohnQPublic]

646 @ 100 ozt. bars and 1000 ozt. bar. Still lots and lots of 10 ozt. bars.

[JohnQPublic]

546 @ 100 ozt. bars, 2 @ 1000 ozt. bars (JM).
Selling roughly 50 @ 100 ozt. bars per day. ~11 days supply left if not replenished.

Still awash in 10 ozt. bars.

[JohnQPublic]

546 @ 100 ozt. bars, 2 @ 1000 ozt. bars (JM).
Selling roughly 50 @ 100 ozt. bars per day. ~11 days supply left if not replenished.

Still awash in 10 ozt. bars.


APMEX NOW SHOWS ZERO 100 OZT. BARS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ximmy]

Oh-oh..Serpo might have to change his tread title again...

( Not) All 100 ounce bars are going to be gone in a matter of days

[JohnQPublic]

Oh-oh..Serpo might have to change his tread title again...

( Not) All 100 ounce bars are going to be gone in a matter of days


( Not) All 100 ounce bars are going to be gone in a matter of days ;D

[JohnQPublic]

The 2 @ 1000 ozt. bars are now gone, too.

493 @ 100 ozt. bars are promised for Feb. 18.

Yesterday Provident Metals had 32 +19 (51) JM and Englehard 100 ozt. bars plus "hundreds" of 100 ozt. Academy stackers.
JM bars out of stock today! Don't know about the rest.

Tulving calims "more than 200 in stock" for JM/Englehard. They are selling new JM bars, but don't specify a quantity

[ximmy]

The 2 @ 1000 ozt. bars are now gone, too.

I carry a 1000 oz bar in my backpack... :P

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 270 @ 100 ozt. bars.
Tulving now tates "Over 500 Bars In Stock" (JM 100 ozt.)
Provident Metals has Acamey and generic, but are still out of JM and Englehard.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 283 100ozt, bars left.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 969 @ 100 ozt. bars (966 JMs).
Provident Metals is only offering generic 100 ozt. bars
Tulving states over 700 JM/Englehard bars (plus generics and PanAms)

[ximmy]

APMEX has 969 @ 100 ozt. bars (966 JMs).
Provident Metals is only offering generic 100 ozt. bars
Tulving states over 700 JM/Englehard bars (plus generics and PanAms)



that's a tidy sum...

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 745 @ 100ozt. silver bars.
Tulving stating 715 @ 100 ozt. bars.
Provident offering Englehards and generic (qty. unkown).

[JohnQPublic]

Need to update the official index (plus the 100 ozt. bar index)

March 1, 2011
12:42 PM, PST

Gold: 19,709
Silver: 11,613

Gold Premium: 5.0%
Silver Premium: 13.4%

Tons of gold. Silver premiums low.

APMEX has 602 @ 100 ozt. bars
Tulving claims over 750 @ 100 ozt. bars.
Provident Metals showing Englehard and generic 100 ozt. bars available.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 377 @ 100 ozt. bars (191 more promised for March 31st)
Tulving claims over 950+ @ 100 ozt. bars. (900+ JM bars)
Provident Metals showing Englehard and generic 100 ozt. bars available.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX is out of 100 ozt. silver bars again.

[ximmy]

APMEX is out of 100 ozt. silver bars again.


only until the price rises above 45...

... Great Panther Silver simply closes the store... they don't claim to be out of the metal.

"The Great Panther store is temporarily unavailable. We will be reopening soon."

http://www.greatpanther.com/s/Home.asp

[osoab]

No offense JQP, but updating the thread every 2 months or so doesn't quite give a good overall trend. ;)

[JohnQPublic]

No offense JQP, but updating the thread every 2 months or so doesn't quite give a good overall trend. ;)


Sorry. Feel free to add comments when you want ;) !

I do check the 100 ozers at least weekly, and as late as last week they had plenty.

[osoab]

No offense JQP, but updating the thread every 2 months or so doesn't quite give a good overall trend. ;)


Sorry. Feel free to add comments when you want ;) !

I do check the 100 ozers at least weekly, and as late as last week they had plenty.


I hadn't checked for a few weeks myself. I have been more interested in Tulving being out of ASE's for quite some time.

Both APMEX and Tulving have been hitting up customers to sell back their Eagles.

[JohnQPublic]

They have 1500 or so 100 oz. bars today. I wonder if it was a glitch?

[mamboni]

They have 1500 or so 100 oz. bars today. I wonder if it was a glitch?


JQP:


You seem to be a student of silver supplies. What is your take on the present situation with physical silver? We see rapidly declining silver at the COMEX. Is there an ongoing silver deficit? The extrapolation of COMEX silver decline suggest silver hitting zero sometime in 2102. You're thoughts?

[ximmy]

They have 1500 or so 100 oz. bars today. I wonder if it was a glitch?


it is better to sell at lower profits than to have no sales income...

[Horn]

They have 1500 or so 100 oz. bars today. I wonder if it was a glitch?


it is better to sell at lower profits than to have no sales income...


Those were Osama's bars, who you kiddin?

[JohnQPublic]

They have 1500 or so 100 oz. bars today. I wonder if it was a glitch?


JQP:


You seem to be a student of silver supplies. What is your take on the present situation with physical silver? We see rapidly declining silver at the COMEX. Is there an ongoing silver deficit? The extrapolation of COMEX silver decline suggest silver hitting zero sometime in 2102. You're thoughts?


mamboni:

I don't have a real good explanation for it. I have been watching just like all of you. I have been hearing about a correction for a few weeks, and considering the rise was turning exponential, I am not surprised. The 4 margin hikes from COMEX, and the added hike by some dealers, plus the coming one for Monday are part of the equation for sure. The "professional" paper players all say that the margin hikes are a reaction to the volatility (the exchanges are protecting themselves). This makes some sense in that if a bunch of longs/shorts start defaulting on margin calls, worse troubles could start.

I see this as an opportunity for JPMorgan to cover at much lower prices. The more conspiritorial side of me sees this as a possibility. I have always suspected that JPM could have some long hedges, which maybe they conveniently sold high. In any case, they could still be in a lot of trouble.

The declining volumes certainly support Harvey's contention that this is a bifurcation between paper and physical prices.

Personally, I suspect this is more a buying opportunity than a collapse, but I could be wrong. I just do not see anything in the fundamentals improving.

[JohnQPublic]

Premiums on ASEs at 19.7%. Pretty high. They are buying at over spot.

Plenty of 100 ozt. bars (> 1000).

[JohnQPublic]

Just checked APMEX. Silver and gold are currently way down ($1644.50, $30.82). Silver premiums are 18.2%, gold are 6.7%. Not the highest ever seen during this thread (at least for silver), but certainly elevated.

[JohnQPublic]

378 @ 100 ozt. silver bars in stock at APMEX (8:55 AM PST, 15APR2013). Let's keep an eye on them.
363 9:18, rate = 39.1 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 9.3 hour supply at this rate. (prices are ok, ~$3 over spot).
231 @ 100 ozt., 1:16 PM PST, rate = 33.7 100 ozt. bars sold per hour. 6.8 hours supply left at this rate.
151 @ 100 ozt., 1:52 WOW BUYING SPREE! (Or APMEX is not updating correctly); rate = 45.9 100 ozt. bars per hour, 3.3 hours supply left.
132 @ 100 ozt., 2:09 GOING BONKERS AT APMEX!; rate = 47.0 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 2.8 hour supply at this rate.
106 @ 100 ozt., 2:31, rate = 48.6 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 2.2 hour supply at this rate.
138 @ 100 ozt., 3:00, new inventory showing up. APMEX has about 20 @ $1000 face bags, and lots of Eagles.
106 @ 100 ozt., 3:48, ? rate = 40.0 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 2.7 hour supply at this rate.
91 @ 100 ozt., 4:18, slowing down. rate = 30.0 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 3.0 hour supply at this rate
61 @ 100 ozt., 4:45, big buy? rate = 40.5 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 1.5 hour supply at this rate
39 @ 100 ozt., 5:08, rate = 41.4 @ 100 ozt bars sold per hour. They have a 57 minute supply at this rate
5 @ 100 ozt 8:05 PM. [507 @ 100 ozt., promised ("These items are on a slight delay. We expect to be able to ship these items by April 24th."); Royal Canadian and JM are a'coming. ]

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 4 @ 100 ozt. bars in stock. Yesterday they had 378! People took advantage of the big bank led sale.
Of the 507 bars they promised for April 24th, 213 are left (294 sold today).

[JohnQPublic]

4720

The Inventory of APMEX 100 ozt. Bars; 15APR2013
Note: I have no data between 5:08 and 8:05 (coincidence), so I plotted the last point at 8:05 PM, PST
What a day!

[mamboni]

4720

The Inventory of APMEX 100 ozt. Bars; 15APR2013
Note: I have no data between 5:08 and 8:05 (coincidence), so I plotted the last point at 8:05 PM, PST
What a day!

"You silverbugs are nuts. There is absolutely no indication of a shortage. Keynesian economics has produced an abundance of silver!"

-Paul Krugman


Nice graph JQP, nice.

[Sparky]

APMEX has 4 @ 100 ozt. bars in stock. Yesterday they had 378! People took advantage of the big bank led sale.
Of the 507 bars they promised for April 24th, 213 are left (294 sold today).

You mean they're not flooded with a surplus of silver from all the panic selling that is driving the price down? You know, all the precious metals holders are liquidating their positions in order to cover margin calls. With so many sellers rushing to dump their bullion at $22/ounce, surely they must be overrun with supply.

[Spectrism]

You mean they're not flooded with a surplus of silver from all the panic selling that is driving the price down? You know, all the precious metals holders are liquidating their positions in order to cover margin calls. With so many sellers rushing to dump their bullion at $22/ounce, surely they must be overrun with supply.


LOL... aren't you selling all of yours? I wish I had some to sell. Supply & demand---> the only thing that can cause the price to drop as it did, would be too much supply or too little demand. Since we have a completely free market, there is no other consideration. You silly conspiracy nuts!

[Sparky]

LOL... aren't you selling all of yours?
...

I'm holding on for a lower price. ;)

[mamboni]

If all the metals retailer are out of bullion then the only functioning price discovery mechanism left is Ebay. That's rather pathetic.

[JohnQPublic]

If all the metals retailer are out of bullion then the only functioning price discovery mechanism left is Ebay. That's rather pathetic.

I looked at ebay yesterday. Most of the offerings in silver were pathetic. A lot of "plated" replicas of .999 bars. What was good was at very high premiums (like $8-9/ozt. + shipping).

[JohnQPublic]

...Nice graph JQP, nice...

Especially that beautiful logo. Where did that come from? :rolleyes:

[gunDriller]

LOL... aren't you selling all of yours?

i emailed APMex the GPS coordinates for my boating accident.

least i could do ! :)

[chad]

looks like a war happened over at apmex. almost nothing left. $55 premium on anything slabbed on ebay right now. crazy.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 2 @ 100 ozt. troy
64 @ 10 ozt. + 64 PAMPS at $9-$10 premium
All bars are pretty high premiums now. Sunshine $2-$3 over spot for 1 ozt. depending on qty.
cheapest 10 ozt. $5+ over spot. strange.
Lots of 1 ozt. bars.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 9 @ 100 ozt. (secondary market) in stock, and 246 promised for April 24th.
158 @ 10 ozt. bars (including 134 Pamps at the highest premium). The 10 ozt. bars are like $9/ozt. premium.

Looks like the rush is subsiding; though they are pretty cleaned out.

[ximmy]

sooo as soon as Apmex 100 oz bars inventory runs under 10 they simply stay in stock for customer purchases?

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has "0" (ZERO) @ 100 ozt. bars now, or promised for future delivery.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 44 @ 100 ozt silver bars, 43 generics, and one Englehard.

[ximmy]

APMEX has 44 @ 100 ozt silver bars, 43 generics, and one Englehard.


Run to the back and grab some more Charlie, I'm out again. ;D

[vacuum]

Is there a way to browse by what's in stock, other than browsing to each specific category and checking?

[Horn]

APMEX has "0" (ZERO) @ 100 ozt. bars now, or promised for future delivery.

APMEX must've used profits from their Bitcoin sales to purchase their own products.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX now has 150 @ 100 ozt. at a couple of bucks over spot.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has scoured the planet for 100 ozt. bars. They now have 596 available. Premiums are around $2/ozt.

[JohnQPublic]

APMEX has 337 @ 100 ozt. bars tonight. Should be interesting to watch now that silver has gone on sale!

[JohnQPublic]

Up to 450 @ 100 ozt troy today.

[JohnQPublic]

331 @ 100 ozt. silver now.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Does anyone know what the typical inventory Apmex has for 100oz bars?

EDIT: Nevermind I looked at past posts to get an idea.

[gunDriller]

Does anyone know what the typical inventory Apmex has for 100oz bars?

EDIT: Nevermind I looked at past posts to get an idea.

once i loaded up the shopping cart with, well, everything - all the 1 ounce Krug's, Maples, GAE's, 100 ounce Silver bars, Silver Eagles, etc., to see what their inventory was. $10 Million total. A few months after Silver was pushed down to $15 in 2010-ish.

that tends to get the 'APMex Chat' person quite excited.

[Spectrism]

once i loaded up the shopping cart with, well, everything - all the 1 ounce Krug's, Maples, GAE's, 100 ounce Silver bars, Silver Eagles, etc., to see what their inventory was. $10 Million total. A few months after Silver was pushed down to $15 in 2010-ish.

that tends to get the 'APMex Chat' person quite excited.

LOL.... when you place the order, remember to reference my name as your agent.

[Horn]

LOL.... when you place the order, remember to reference my name as your agent.

Now tell me if you had the kinda squeezins, wouldn't you just buy them out?

Whats wrong with billionaires these days?

[JohnQPublic]

Apmex has 309@100 ozt. bars at $2-4/ozt. premium.

[JohnQPublic]

Silver is on sale again, and Apmex has 225 @ 100 ozt. bars available (about $2.10-2.30 premium per ozt.)

[JohnQPublic]

Despite Being A 'Pet Rock', The Premium For Physical Bullion Is Exploding (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-29/despite-being-pet-rock-premium-physical-bullion-exploding)
"While status quo-huggers are all too happy to point out gold and silver's lack of utter exuberance amid this week's carnage, perhaps they need to re-comprehend the difference between a heavily manipulated 'paper' market and the surging demand for physical precious metals that is evident in the 20-plus percent premium - and rising - being paid for silver bullion currently..."

20+% is pretty high! Especially for investment delivery.

[JohnQPublic]

According to the formula I followed a couple of years ago, APMEX silver premium is currently 39.9%- more than double it ever was when I was monitoring it! Gold is 5.2%, in line with the past.

[Spectrism]

According to the formula I followed a couple of years ago, APMEX silver premium is currently 39.9%- more than double it ever was when I was monitoring it! Gold is 5.2%, in line with the past.


I think silver has come down fast and not been down long enough for the physical into catch down to the price of paper. We need to see a couple buying cycles of dealers getting new silver from mints at the paper price. Then premiums will fall back in line. One concern I have is a severe deflationary depression. This could make prices on most things drop in the short term. It could cause a money reset to a new currency. It would be like driving a car off a high cliff. It doesn't matter that it had new tires. The dollar is the heart of the money system and credit / borrowing / debt is its life blood. The dollar could be strong but if there is no borrowing and debts are being defaulted, it is like a healthy heart and no blood.

[Horn]

One concern I have is a severe deflationary depression.

Its possible, but I dont think nearly as many of us will be left to see it after the hyper-inflationary period before it.

I think another bout of twice as many dollars are coming along with a doubling cost of a oil barrel.

[Spectrism]

Its possible, but I dont think nearly as many of us will be left to see it after the hyper-inflationary period before it.

I think another bout of twice as many dollars are coming along with a doubling cost of a oil barrel.


How will that money be created and enter the marketplace?

[Horn]

Thru dollar dumping of foreign reserves into a completely manipulated and higher oil price.

[JohnQPublic]

I think silver has come down fast and not been down long enough for the physical into catch down to the price of paper. ...

Thast is true. I paid 50% premiums on some silver in 2008. But it was still cheaper than today! (No comment needed Ponce- I have some $4/ozt. silver too! Probably not nearly as much as you do.).

[JohnQPublic]

Premium are now 42.6%. No drop in premiums yet- actually a slight rise since August 30th! Werry, werry intewesting (and no, I ain't huntin' no wabbits).

[EE_]

Premium are now 42.6%. No drop in premiums yet- actually a slight rise since August 30th! Werry, werry intewesting (and no, I ain't huntin' no wabbits).

Check here at CNI https://www.golddealer.com/product-category/products-2/bullion/silver-bullion-coins-and-bars/

Silver Eagles - spot + $5.25 That's the highest I've seen in quite a while.
Silver rounds - spot + $1.50

[JohnQPublic]

...
Silver rounds - spot + $1.50

Not too bad on silver rounds.