steveoc
11th May 2010, 07:45 PM
Interesting analysis of the Euro situation (even with an accent). He suggests that the whole Euro financial system almost collapsed on the Sunday just gone.
Here is my best effort at transcribing the video (my own emphasis added where appropriate)
The Euro area, and the governments of the EU were all aligned to protect Greece, with an illegal bailout.
...
On Sunday night (basically) France could not refinance itself. One of the largest holders of Greek debt is (basically) France, and its banking system. At that point in time, France and the banking system in France, was very close to collapse. (something ... cant quite understand what he says next), and the banks would have gone down the toilet the moments the markets opened in Japan (first thing Monday morning)
And so, you really needed to find a solution for that issue.
So the leaders came together (Sunday night) and decided that they will bail out Greece, AND the Eurozone, AND France ... and that is basically what happened.
Basically what happened was a currency reform - "we need a strong currency, a big strong devaluation of the currency to survive". A 30% - 60% devaluation of the Euro against other currencies to survive.
Now, the whole thing here is that in the world we have, we need continuous growth of debt, and that is something which is very different to the 29 depression, because at that point in time we still had the gold standard, so you did not need this unlimited growth of debt.
Now, with this financial system we have, you cannot eliminate debt You cannot allow a default, because that would wipe out the debt, and cause the system to collapse
The debt levels decreasing by devaluation - that is the only chance for this system to survive. And that is the scenario the European leaders, and the ECB is working on.
The big question is "does that work ?" .. I really doubt it .. I think we have something like 3-4 weeks, a month, more time .. and then something big has to happen. I dont think you can have devaluation - because then the currencies, all the western currencies would have to devaluate, and then at the end of the time all you do is devaluate against each other ... and that already did'nt work out in the depression.
Doesnt work.
The news for today - we were 5 minutes, one hour - I don't know - from a full financial system collapse, similar to what they have been telling us at (limra ?????) the problems are much bigger, and now at this point of the time the ECB and Europe do not have much bullets left. ...... This is a poker approach, you put all your money in on the table, and if the other party has a better hand, you lost it all.
This is big bluff, big poker bluff, and if you look into the faces of people, you can realise its a bluff.
He then goes on to tell us what we already know - strong devaluation, strong inflation, austerity measures ahead, and continued debt deflation. Much higher unemployment than the great depression of 29 is just around the corner for those who are not prepared.
Plenty of warning, and plenty of time left to prep. Enjoy life and be prepared for whats coming :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7YKFgARq2Y
Here is my best effort at transcribing the video (my own emphasis added where appropriate)
The Euro area, and the governments of the EU were all aligned to protect Greece, with an illegal bailout.
...
On Sunday night (basically) France could not refinance itself. One of the largest holders of Greek debt is (basically) France, and its banking system. At that point in time, France and the banking system in France, was very close to collapse. (something ... cant quite understand what he says next), and the banks would have gone down the toilet the moments the markets opened in Japan (first thing Monday morning)
And so, you really needed to find a solution for that issue.
So the leaders came together (Sunday night) and decided that they will bail out Greece, AND the Eurozone, AND France ... and that is basically what happened.
Basically what happened was a currency reform - "we need a strong currency, a big strong devaluation of the currency to survive". A 30% - 60% devaluation of the Euro against other currencies to survive.
Now, the whole thing here is that in the world we have, we need continuous growth of debt, and that is something which is very different to the 29 depression, because at that point in time we still had the gold standard, so you did not need this unlimited growth of debt.
Now, with this financial system we have, you cannot eliminate debt You cannot allow a default, because that would wipe out the debt, and cause the system to collapse
The debt levels decreasing by devaluation - that is the only chance for this system to survive. And that is the scenario the European leaders, and the ECB is working on.
The big question is "does that work ?" .. I really doubt it .. I think we have something like 3-4 weeks, a month, more time .. and then something big has to happen. I dont think you can have devaluation - because then the currencies, all the western currencies would have to devaluate, and then at the end of the time all you do is devaluate against each other ... and that already did'nt work out in the depression.
Doesnt work.
The news for today - we were 5 minutes, one hour - I don't know - from a full financial system collapse, similar to what they have been telling us at (limra ?????) the problems are much bigger, and now at this point of the time the ECB and Europe do not have much bullets left. ...... This is a poker approach, you put all your money in on the table, and if the other party has a better hand, you lost it all.
This is big bluff, big poker bluff, and if you look into the faces of people, you can realise its a bluff.
He then goes on to tell us what we already know - strong devaluation, strong inflation, austerity measures ahead, and continued debt deflation. Much higher unemployment than the great depression of 29 is just around the corner for those who are not prepared.
Plenty of warning, and plenty of time left to prep. Enjoy life and be prepared for whats coming :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7YKFgARq2Y