Trend alert: Summer of turmoil coming to Europe

[Ares]

Spain and Greece are initiating the first round of severe spending cuts. As we've witnessed in Greece, these cuts are extremely unpopular and have led to disturbing violence. Expect the same to spread all through the EU this summer.

Nations such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy have gargantuan budget deficit to GDP ratios. And if they want to be eligible for the nearly $1 trillion EU/IMF backstop, they have no other choice but to institute painful "austerity" measures.

Problem is, Europeans are accustomed to a particular lifestyle, and as governments move to challenge this lifestyle in order to prevent sovereign debt crises, the people will begin to push back.

Before I outline two plausible scenarios, I'd like to predict that as the official budget numbers come out for Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy, they will prove worse than originally expected, much like the recent numbers out of Greece and the UK.

Here are the two potential scenarios, then, for events in Europe this summer:

First, governments will test the waters with limited cuts at first, gauging resistance levels from the public. Modest civil unrest will break out, governments will lose courage, and the punishing deficits will remain, sending shockwaves through world markets. Then, the EU/IMF will be forced to step in and start the pump prime, which will further devalue the Euro.

Second, governments will launch steep, extremely painful cuts to stave off a debt crisis. The people will vociferously protest, launching a scary wave of riots and violence across Europe. Governments will then back off, and the EU/IMF will quickly start handing out the $1 trillion bailout package. As a result, the Euro will further depreciate.

Growth is low, unemployment is high, and government programs are on the chopping block. This is a recipe for a summer of rage.

http://theindependentforum.blogspot.com/2010/05/trend-alert-summer-of-turmoil-coming-to.html

[Trinity]

I disagree on the Rage thing Ares. Europe has an old population most concerned with entitlements. The entitlements will be funded, the fatso governments will shed a pound of flesh for the banks, the people will bitch a little but the sleepwalking will continue.

The Greek riots? That looked to me like old communist party members making some money following a script they were given. JMHO

[Ares]

I think it will happen. You are right that the vast majority are old. But you have both the elderly and the young who have the entitlement mentality. If they don't get what is "rightfully" theirs they will revolt.

Communist or not, it's that entitlement mentality that's gone on for 2-3 generations that will be their own downfall.

[Ponce]

Just wait till it happens in the good old US of A........you have seen nothing yet...coming to you this summer by courtesy of the government.

[Ares]

If it hasn't happened yet Ponce, I'm not sure that it ever will. We have a complete Fraud as commander in thief, he shoved obamacare down the collective throat, and the bill up the collective ass of the American people. We're on the hook for bailing out wall street as well as Europe. We have a congress that only pretends to listen, and a senate that flat out ignores us.

Arms should of been taken up long ago, why I'm pessimistic of it ever happening. After seeing everything the populace at large has endured they'll probably say thank you sir can I have another after their energy consumption gets taxed to the stratosphere with the carbon tax.

[cigarlover]

I agree ares, Americans just don't seem to be that concerned with it. Not yet anyway, maybe when the pain hits them directly it will. Don't forget all of these bailouts and handouts haven't been paid for yet. All we have really done is take out loans that the average American hasn't had to pay for yet. Higher taxes are coming though and that will be interesting.
I think first up will be Ca. They will need a bailout, no other way. Then a few other states will follow when they see Ca get it and then eventually all the states will sign up for the free money. I dont think the pain sets in this summer. Maybe next or within the next 5 years. So far the Dollar is still the reserve currency which sets us apart from the rest of the world. So far anyway....... I think the metals are telling us that even the dollar is not the safe haven it once was.

[Trinity]

Ares the reasons why you state the revolution will not happen in the U.S. are the same reasons why I think it will not happen in Europe. I do think this summer we will see some protests here in the U.S. by fatso state government workers similar to the Greek protests but less violent because the police here hate the population and are itching to shoot. In Greece at least the police showed caring restraint when dealing with the protests.

[Plastic]

Satan's global government will not allow people to overthrow his minions without a fight, literally. Prepare for WAR, as that is the normal tool used to distract and quell the dissent of the people. This planet is in for a serious sh*tstorm of epic proportions and soon.

[Twisted Titan]

Nations such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy have gargantuan budget deficit to GDP ratios. And if they want to be eligible for the nearly $1 trillion EU/IMF backstop, they have no other choice but to institute painful "austerity" measures.

Problem is, Europeans are accustomed to a particular lifestyle, and as governments move to challenge this lifestyle in order to prevent sovereign debt crises, the people will begin to push back.


Coming soon.........

[Book]

http://lifeboat.com/images/unconference.riot.jpg

Geezers want things to continue normally so the postman can deliver their Pension check.

Unemployed guys idle under 30 years old make real riots and real anarchy happen. Reason: Testosterone. Young women don't put out for unemployed guys. Gonna be a long hot summer here and everywhere.

:oo-->

[Ponce]

I still say that from now to the beginning of winter we will have riots........one thing is to care less about the economy and another that your kids are hungry, you have no job, no aid from the government, no place to live and many other problems...........specially if "Dancing with the Stars" goes of the air.

If anyone here would like to make a small bet about it I am here for you.

[Trinity]

The only place on the planet where the riots are real is in Asia. The rest is just brats screaming.


"We need a knockout punch [to Abhisit]," he says. "We’ve had an upper cut, a hook. But people are saying, 'Why don't you go for a knockout?'

Now this is protesting.

http://us.asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog/odds-and-ends

[Neuro]

They will up the flouride dose in drinking water... I expect to see more fractures in a few years time...

[gunDriller]

i wouldn't be surprised to see Rioting turned into a reality show by some TV producer trying to find or set the next trend.

i don't know what the show would be called. i think my sister in law would watch it. she likes reality shows.

or maybe what's happening in Europe is too real for a reality show.

[the white rabbit]

2 weeks ago in France http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHg7Q5GZHFU

[gunDriller]

Just wait till it happens in the good old US of A........you have seen nothing yet...coming to you this summer by courtesy of the government.


i think they will just keep printing money and make sure people are too drugged with Prozac etc. to notice the real inflation.

they will probably admit a little inflation sometime this spring or summer in conjunction with raising interest rates 1/4% or something. i think they may have pre-announced this.

wonder what effect it will have on gold & silver next time the government changes interest rates ?

[InsurgentWolf]

Geezers want things to continue normally so the postman can deliver their Pension check.

Unemployed guys idle under 30 years old make real riots and real anarchy happen. Reason: Testosterone. Young women don't put out for unemployed guys. Gonna be a long hot summer here and everywhere.

:oo-->


Testosterone doesn't cause violent or aggressive behaviour, adrenalin + cortisol do. There has been a huge disinfo campaign going on about the human psychology and hormones is just a part of it.

[cigarlover]

Theres a huge difference between the US and greece. The size of the economy is just one. Greece doesnt have the power to just print money like the US does either and thats the biggest difference. The US can print money for a long time to come.

[Book]

Testosterone doesn't cause violent or aggressive behaviour, adrenalin + cortisol do. There has been a huge disinfo campaign going on about the human psychology and hormones is just a part of it.



http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/angry-woman-733632.jpg

Women also have adrenalin and cortisol but they don't go all Riot and Mayhem and Anarchy. Gotta be a male thing.

:oo-->

[Ponce]

Mr. Driller.........the the money that they gives you for free buys you nothing then what?

We are heading for a shortage of food........that I know, and what there is will be out of reach of most people.

[gunDriller]

Mr. Driller.........the the money that they gives you for free buys you nothing then what?

We are heading for a shortage of food........that I know, and what there is will be out of reach of most people.


but that's not the trend.

the trend is that the food gets ever more expensive.

as far as what happens when the trucks stop bringing the food to the store - that's one of the reasons i trained myself to eat earthworms.

i don't think that will happen in most parts of the country at most times. just that it's not wise to depend on Uncle Sam too much ... e.g. Katrina.

i agree, we are headed for a shortage of food, but that tends to get sorted out by food getting more expensive.

[Ponce]

That's what I meant when I said that the free money would buy you nothing, food to expensive...........however, because my silver will go up at par with the high cost of food my price then would be same as now........but I still have my 7 years plus of food.