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Ponce
15th May 2010, 09:49 AM
Be sure to check out the photo from above......makes me sick.
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Gulf Oil Leaks Could Gush for Years "We don't have any idea how to stop this," expert says.Main Content

Seen up close, an iridescent sheen of oil swirls on Gulf of Mexico waters Tuesday.

Photograph by Gerald Herbert, AP
Christine Dell'Amore

National Geographic News

Published May 13, 2010

If efforts fail to cap the leaking Deepwater Horizon wellhead in the Gulf of Mexico (map), oil could gush for years—poisoning coastal habitats for decades, experts say.

(See satellite pictures of the Gulf oil spill's evolution.)

Last week the joint federal-industry task force charged with managing the spill tried unsuccessfully to lower a 93-ton containment dome (pictures) over one of three ruptures in the rig's downed pipe.

Crystals of methane hydrates in the freezing depths clogged an opening on the box, preventing it from funneling the spouting oil up to a waiting ship.

Watch video of the failed attempt to cap the leaking pipe.





Yesterday a smaller dome was laid on the seafloor near the faulty well, and officials will attempt to install the structure later this week.

But such recovery operations have never been done before in the extreme deep-sea environment around the wellhead, noted Matthew Simmons, retired chair of the energy-industry investment banking firm Simmons & Company International.

For instance, at the depth of the gushing wellhead—5,000 feet (about 1,500 meters)—containment technologies have to withstand pressures of up to 40,000 pounds per square inch (about 28,100 kilograms per square meter), he said.

Also, slant drilling—a technique used to relieve pressure near the leak—is difficult at these depths, because the relief well has to tap into the original pipe, a tiny target at about 7 inches (18 centimeters) wide, Simmons noted.

"We don't have any idea how to stop this," Simmons said of the Gulf leak. Some of the proposed strategies—such as temporarily plugging the leaking pipe with a jet of golf balls and other material—are a "joke," he added.

"We really are in unprecedented waters."

Gulf Oil Reservoir Bleeding Dry

If the oil can't be stopped, the underground reservoir may continue bleeding until it's dry, Simmons suggested.

The most recent estimates are that the leaking wellhead has been spewing 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons, or 795,000 liters) of oil a day.

And the oil is still flowing robustly, which suggests that the reserve "would take years to deplete," said David Rensink, incoming president of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

"You're talking about a reservoir that could have tens of millions of barrels in it."

At that rate, it's possible the Gulf oil spill's damage to the environment will have lingering effects akin to those of the largest oil spill in history, which happened in Saudi Arabia in 1991, said Miles Hayes, co-founder of the science-and-technology consulting firm Research Planning, Inc., based in South Carolina.

During the Gulf War, the Iraqi military intentionally spilled up to 336 million gallons (about 1.3 billion liters) of oil into the Persian Gulf (map) to slow U.S. troop advances, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Hayes was part of a team that later studied the environmental impacts of the spill, which impacted about 500 miles (800 kilometers) of Saudi Arabian coastline.

The scientists discovered a "tremendous" amount of oiled sediment remained on the Saudi coast 12 years after the spill—about 3 million cubic feet (856,000 cubic meters). (See "Exxon Valdez Anniversary: 20 Years Later, Oil Remains.")

Oil Spills Create Toxic Marshes

Perhaps most sobering for the marsh-covered U.S. Gulf Coast, the 2003 report found that the Saudi oil spill was most toxic to the region's marshes and mud flats.

Up to 89 percent of the Saudi marshes and 71 percent of the mud flats had not bounced back after 12 years, the team discovered. (See pictures of freshwater plants and animals.)

"It was amazing to stand there and look across what used to be a salt marsh and it was all dead—not even a live crab," Hayes said.

Saudi and U.S. Gulf Coast marshes aren't exactly the same—Saudi marshes sit in saltier waters, and the Middle Eastern climate is more arid, for example. "But to some extent they serve the same ecological function, which is extremely important," he said.

As the nurseries for much of the sea life in the Gulf of Mexico, coastal marshes are vital to the ecosystem and the U.S. seafood industry.

It's also much harder to remove oil from coastal marshes, since some management techniques—such as controlled burns—are more challenging in those environments, said Texas Tech University ecotoxicologist Ron Kendall.

"Once it gets in there, we're not getting it out," he said. (See pictures of ten animals threatened by the Gulf oil spill.)

Gulf Coast Should "Plan for the Worst"

Depth isn't the only factor that can stymie attempts to plug an oil leak.

The 1979 Ixtoc oil spill, also in the Gulf of Mexico, took nine months to cap. During that time the well spewed 140 million gallons (530 million liters) of oil—and the Ixtoc well was only about 160 feet (49 meters) deep, noted retired energy investment banker Simmons.

Efforts to contain the Ixtoc leak were complicated by poor visibility in the water and debris from the wrecked rig on the seafloor.

Also, the high pressure of oil in the well ruptured valves in the blowout preventer, a device designed to automatically cap an out-of-control-well. Recovery workers had to drill relief wells nearby before divers could cap the leak.

(See "Rig Explosion Shows Risks in Key Oil Frontier.")

In general, Simmons added, officials scrambling to cap the Deepwater Horizon well should be working just as hard to protect the shorelines in what could become a protracted event.

"We have to hope for the best," he said, "but plan for the worst."

Link to Article (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100513-science-environment-gulf-oil-spill-cap-leak/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+C2C-InTheNews+%28Feed+-+Coast+to+Coast+-+In+the+News%29)


EDIT: Changed long link to named link to prevent horizontal scrolling. -Gaillo

mick silver
15th May 2010, 09:59 AM
i fear if this last for years , as we know the world it will not be the same .. ... what a way to thin the herd

Ponce
15th May 2010, 10:16 AM
Like I already said "Many will die because of this disaster"..........said so on the first day...........maybe second :oo-->

J in AZ
15th May 2010, 10:16 AM
Be sure to check out the photo from above......makes me sick.
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There are a bunch of photos of the spill here:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/disaster_unfolds_slowly_in_the.html

Ponce
15th May 2010, 10:25 AM
I am sorry that I saw those pictures.........I have been at war in a few countries but all this scares me more than flying bullets.

mick silver
15th May 2010, 03:25 PM
someone posted this with the pic....Don't you think that it is odd that this disaster happened just after Obama made it OK to drill off shore for oil so The United States could rely on our own oil and not have to rely so much on foreign oil. It looks to me that someone somewhere decided to blow up that oil rig in order to scare us into demanding that there be no more drilling for oil just off the shores of the United States. Someone doesn't want us cutting into their oil profits.

I am me, I am free
15th May 2010, 04:50 PM
In reality, ANY manager that FUBARs something and then continues at the same level of incompetence unabated is unceremoniously fired.

ALL the worthless m***er fuckers mismanaging this load of horseshit need to be fired yesterday, and I mean all the way to the top. It is very clear to me what has to be done, but few have the 'nads to break away from their sweet life of luxury to do any thing about it.

StreetsOfGold
15th May 2010, 06:10 PM
All this oil is, is just some dead animals and foilage compressed during the flood about 4400 years ago. When it stops it wil go away in a few years. Not a big deal excpet for those making a living in the area.

I am me, I am free
15th May 2010, 06:56 PM
All this oil is, is just some dead animals and foilage compressed during the flood about 4400 years ago. When it stops it wil go away in a few years. Not a big deal excpet for those making a living in the area.


Come on - decaying animal and plant matter four miles down into the crust of the earth one mile under the surface of the ocean??? Get real.

Ponce
15th May 2010, 07:10 PM
Is ok Mr. Free...........he belongs to the old schools that oil is dinos and plants.

I am me, I am free
15th May 2010, 07:17 PM
Is ok Mr. Free...........he belongs to the old schools that oil is dinos and plants.


'old school' belief about the origins of petroleum = fairy tale spun by The Death Cult to con the rubes (think DeBeers and their make believe limited supply of diamonds)

bonaparte
15th May 2010, 10:47 PM
What scares me most about those pictures is that the newest one is 5 days old. I can only imagine what things are starting to look like now.

StackerKen
15th May 2010, 10:57 PM
I've read there is more natural gas pouring out than there is oil...

wonder what thats gonna do to the sea life

Andy9999
15th May 2010, 11:22 PM
10 meters of height of water = 1 atmosphere of pressure
how deep is that leaking oil well ??
5000 feet =1,6 km below surface,what is the pressure at that depth???
I think 160 atmospheres...
and oil is still flowing ,regardless atmospheric pressure of water above,

how fast,
imagine pressure of this oil deposit???

Quantum
16th May 2010, 02:17 AM
All this oil is, is just some dead animals and foilage compressed during the flood about 4400 years ago. When it stops it wil go away in a few years. Not a big deal excpet for those making a living in the area.


I, too, believe in Biblical Creation, but this is definitely a "big deal." There is good reason to believe that oil is an abiotic product, not just dead dinos and ferns.

This is a disaster of Biblical proportions. It's equivalent to Chernobyl without the radiation. A harbinger of the End Times. It won't just "go away in a few years." America's number one fishery is done for, for decades. Wait until a hurricane comes through the Gulf to smear this crap all over the Gulf Coast lines.

Man's love of money has again damaged God's beautiful creation.

Rockbrother
16th May 2010, 02:25 AM
God's word does say that all the creatures in the sea would die.

Quantum
16th May 2010, 02:26 AM
The nuclear explosive idea is starting to look quite attractive. A low-yield device should collapse the sea floor into the venting tube.

Washington has dispatched two nuclear weapons experts, including an older guy who worked on theoretical usage of nuclear explosives.

From Popular Science:

http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2010-05/crack-scientist-team-dispatched-houston-solve-oil-spill

"A crack team of physicists, mining engineers and even a hydrogen bomb expert is the latest brain trust to tackle the Deepwater Horizon undersea oil disaster."

(...)

"Richard Garwin, a consultant who helped design the first hydrogen bomb in 1951."

(...)

"Tom Hunter from Sandia Laboratories, which conducts research for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration."

Quantum
16th May 2010, 02:26 AM
God's word does say that all the creatures in the sea would die.



All or one-third?

Quantum
16th May 2010, 02:56 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ojCbqfRRr8

Neuro
16th May 2010, 04:56 AM
All this oil is, is just some dead animals and foilage compressed during the flood about 4400 years ago. When it stops it wil go away in a few years. Not a big deal excpet for those making a living in the area.

Yep all the forms of Carbon on this planet comes from recently decomposed life forms... :sarc:

EE_
16th May 2010, 05:31 AM
Man's love of money has again damaged God's beautiful creation.


I see it differently...Man's love for money is destroying man, allowing God's beautiful creation to repair itself. It's the natural order of things.

Book
16th May 2010, 06:40 AM
http://www.wetasschronicles.com/NukeTest.jpg

After the radioactivity subsides we can go back down and see if it is still leaking in, say, oh I dunno, another 600 years...lol.

:o

Neuro
16th May 2010, 06:57 AM
Can't the flow in the pipe be stopped by just flattening the pipe...

Gknowmx
16th May 2010, 07:16 AM
Time to call in Red Adair

http://www.redadair.com/kuwait.html

I recall during the first gulf war when the kuwaiti oil wells where going to burn out of control for a generation...

or er, a few days after Red Adair was called in....

Spectrism
16th May 2010, 07:18 AM
Can't the flow in the pipe be stopped by just flattening the pipe...


That would be like putting duct tape on a leaking fire hydrant.

The problem is that there is probably an average pressure in excess of 12,000 psi available to the well head. If the 18,000 foot shaft fills with gas, that pressure could be in excess of 20,000psi.

Pinching the fallen riser pipe will cause a back-pressure at the well head and in the riser pipe. I don't believe that riser can handle those kinds of pressures. To complicate this, if flow continues, there will be pressure surges due to the mix of oil and gas. Picture it like a coffee percolater. The steam puches boiling water up to the top of the coffee pot. If you measure the pressure of those surges, they can be 10 times (or much more) than the average. That is probably what destroyed the blow-off pressure valves.

A pressure of 100,000 psi will blow ANYTHING out of there.

crazychicken
16th May 2010, 08:19 AM
No matter your persuasion, the pictures in the link from the OP should make you ill.

The oil spill situation in the Gulf; the Iceland volcano; the collapse of the financial markets-------------------

Three of the four horsemen of the Apocolypse?

CC

Blink
16th May 2010, 08:53 AM
No matter your persuasion, the pictures in the link from the OP should make you ill.

The oil spill situation in the Gulf; the Iceland volcano; the collapse of the financial markets-------------------

Three of the four horsemen of the Apocolypse?

CC


Don't forget H1N1, food shortages and endless war. Gotta be a horseman in there somewhere.......

johnlvs2run
16th May 2010, 08:53 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG8JHSAVYT0

SeekYeFirst
16th May 2010, 09:35 AM
Like I already said "Many will die because of this disaster"..........said so on the first day...........maybe second :oo-->

Is this black river of death headed straight for Cuba??? Sorry Ponce :'(
I don't think the oil takes millions of years to form; I think it formed in about four thousand years.
The concern about this spill should help the global warming crowd's cause.
This disaster is nowhere near the scale of Chernobyl in damage to the earth.

Bors
16th May 2010, 10:16 AM
Can't the flow in the pipe be stopped by just flattening the pipe...


Wasn't that the idea behind using a smaller bomb? Detonate it a few feet from the pipe to pinch it off. I wouldn't stop the flow but it would slow it down. I like it better than the nuclear option, what if they blow a huge hole in the ocean floor and all that oil just gushes out at once?

Horn
16th May 2010, 10:25 AM
The easiest engineering feat would be to pressurize a balloon on the inside of the pipe.

mick silver
16th May 2010, 10:25 AM
i am starting to see that they do not want to fix this leak ... there too many people in the world and there not asking for there help are i just dont see that

jedemdasseine
16th May 2010, 10:33 AM
Considering nuking an oil gush at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico?

That we've found ourselves in this predicament is amazing.

bellevuebully
16th May 2010, 10:54 AM
The problem is that there is probably an average pressure in excess of 12,000 psi available to the well head.



How did you come to that #? If the head pressure of water at the wellhead is ~2300psi and the casing pressure was 12000 psi, there would not be a plume of oil leaving the casing, it would be an arrow-straight geyser. fwiw, I've worked on some of the deepest n/g wells in N/A and have only ever once encountered a resevoir pressure of greater than 10 000. Not saying they don't exist, but with the amount of wells I've been around, if they were that common, I'd probably have seen more. By looking at the plume, I'd say the differential across the top of the casing to be only a couple of hundred psi. jmho of course.

Horn
16th May 2010, 11:31 AM
The problem is that there is probably an average pressure in excess of 12,000 psi available to the well head.



How did you come to that #? If the head pressure of water at the wellhead is ~2300psi and the casing pressure was 12000 psi, there would not be a plume of oil leaving the casing, it would be an arrow-straight geyser. fwiw, I've worked on some of the deepest n/g wells in N/A and have only ever once encountered a resevoir pressure of greater than 10 000. Not saying they don't exist, but with the amount of wells I've been around, if they were that common, I'd probably have seen more. By looking at the plume, I'd say the differential across the top of the casing to be only a couple of hundred psi. jmho of course.


I concur, they are fairly close to equilibrium.

bellevuebully
16th May 2010, 12:00 PM
i am starting to see that they do not want to fix this leak ... there too many people in the world and there not asking for there help are i just dont see that


I totally agree mick. The resolve to solve the issue seems unnaturally weak, given the magnitude of the situation. Also, logistically, does it seem like that impossible of a task?

Spectrism
16th May 2010, 01:10 PM
The problem is that there is probably an average pressure in excess of 12,000 psi available to the well head.



How did you come to that #? If the head pressure of water at the wellhead is ~2300psi and the casing pressure was 12000 psi, there would not be a plume of oil leaving the casing, it would be an arrow-straight geyser. fwiw, I've worked on some of the deepest n/g wells in N/A and have only ever once encountered a resevoir pressure of greater than 10 000. Not saying they don't exist, but with the amount of wells I've been around, if they were that common, I'd probably have seen more. By looking at the plume, I'd say the differential across the top of the casing to be only a couple of hundred psi. jmho of course.


Lacking specifics from BP, I had to calculate my own guesses.
----------------------------------------
Here is how you can figure out the pressure of the oil. We know the depth the hole went into the ground... 18,000 feet. It went through dirt/mud/rock. We can approximate the density of the dirt and the oil. The oil is under the pressure of the earth and sea. Ignore the sea as we will want the pressure at the well head.

water column- if we were talking about a water column of 18,000 feet, the pressure would be 7794psi.

Dirt is about 2.5 times the density of water. Oil is about 0.87 times the density of water. So, to push the oil up 18,000 feet is easier than pushing up water. The pressure down 18,000 feet below the well head is about 7794 * 2.5 = 19,485psi [an additional 2300psi when we add the depth of the well head=> approx 21,785psia in the reservoir]

Pushing the oil up the 18,000 feet will remove 6781psi. If the pipe is suddenly filled with gas, that pressure will spike up 6000psi.

The difference is our well head pressure: 19,485 - 6781 = 12,704psi at the well head.

That is my guess based on the info I have read. We have oil coming out of the well head in excess of 10,000 psi and it sure ain't gonna travel that pipe almost frictionless at 165 gpm.

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There are complicating issues. 1) There is a partial obstruction remaining from the BOP valve. No idea what that looks like. It provides dynamic head loss. As long as oil is flowing, there is a pressure drop across it. When oil stops flowing the pressure ramps up in a static mode. Just like voltage and current in electricity.
2) The well head has a 6 5/8 inch pipe. This is flowing into a 21 inch riser. Big pressure drop when you increase pipe size as long as flow is not restricted. There is also a big velocity drop when you go from a 6 inch to a 21 inch pipe. How much?

6 inch pipe: 28 sq in
21 inch pipe: 415 sq in

velocity would drop by multiplier of 28/415 = .068
.... or it would be 14.7 times faster in the smaller pipe.

As for your observations of the video... probably not too far off.... but that was a 21-inch pipe. That is a monster flow.

Spectrism
16th May 2010, 01:14 PM
Just looking at another angle on this..... if we think the oil is flowing out of the 21 inch pipe at 2 feet per second, its flow through the 6-inch pipe is SCREAMING at close to 28 feet per second.

Now consider the mud and solids in the oil that are grinding away at the surfaces in that small pipe. The restriction in the pipe that is keeping this from getting worse could burst any time. Maybe it already has.

bellevuebully
16th May 2010, 02:33 PM
spec, your calcs assume the oil in the well is seeing the same pressure as the overburden above it. The oil,being trapped within pores in the rock, resides at an independent pressure. Thus, wells lose resevoir pressure over their producing years, even though the depth of the well never changed. As long as the resevoir pressure remains higher than the water column above the exposed casing, no water would enter the casing so the resevoir would never see the pressure generated by 18000 ft of w.c.

The resevoir pressure and the pressure of overburden are, I believe, relatively independant. Agian, this is why resevoir pressures diminish over time, while the depth of the well stays constant.

Quantum
16th May 2010, 03:07 PM
Man's love of money has again damaged God's beautiful creation.


I see it differently...Man's love for money is destroying man, allowing God's beautiful creation to repair itself. It's the natural order of things.


Centuries would be required to repair this.

Revelation speaks of 1/3 of the sea life being killed. This may be the beginning, or a large contribution to what's already started.

Quantum
16th May 2010, 03:12 PM
http://www.wetasschronicles.com/NukeTest.jpg

After the radioactivity subsides we can go back down and see if it is still leaking in, say, oh I dunno, another 600 years...lol.

:o


Yes, yes, we all "know" that nuclear detonations render places unlivable for centuries and centuries.

The City of Hiroshima Official Website, a city of 1.2 million people:

http://www.city.hiroshima.lg.jp/www/genre/0000000000000/1001000000021/index.html

A low-yield detonation would have less release of radiation than most of the nuclear tests conducted underwater. The choice is between a marginal release of nuclear radiation and tidal effects, or endless plumes of oil-death spewing into the Gulf. Which shall it be?

Quantum
16th May 2010, 03:19 PM
I like it better than the nuclear option, what if they blow a huge hole in the ocean floor and all that oil just gushes out at once?




ZERO chance of that. There's 15, 000 - 18,000 feet of solid rock between the ocean floor and the reservoir:

http://media.nola.com/2010_gulf_oil_spill/photo/beneaththeoilslickjpg-26ae69ad5b2d305c_large.jpg

A 1 to 5 kiloton explosion would vaporize several dozen yards of the area around the pipe, and cause hundreds of yards (hundreds of thousands of tons) of debris to collapse onto the gusher. You'd have over two miles of rock shielding against a catastrophic opening of the reservoir.