Fighting Gold at 1220

[MAGNES]

That is what I see happening.

On two days we got spikes down
that did not look right, when gold
got close to 1220 and afterwards
when it surpassed it.

Silver is more volatile now overnight
and beaten down.

This confirms fighting new highs in gold.

Seen these chart patterns many times.

The fact that gold stayed above 1220
and near it for quite a few days was
very positive , looked like new highs
for seasonally strong May.

Sell in May and go away. LOL

Don't have time to post charts sorry.

Watch gold not silver, pull trigger on silver.

Ask me questions.

[JohnQPublic]

The entire Euro scene will be chaos tommorrow (and the US will follow). I would not worry too much about what happens. If it drops, maybe look at it as a buying opportunity ;).

The ban on naked shorts and CDS is a kick in the cajones to to all the speculators. This could be huge. Fasten your seatbelts.


http://pix.motivatedphotos.com/2008/12/12/633647130268511787-Seatbelts.jpg

[MAGNES]

http://i47.tinypic.com/1zmdw1w.gif

http://i50.tinypic.com/ngzuz4.gif

1220 Roughly is key battle line for the
CRIMEX SHORTS OPERATION.

COT at Highs, Tech at Resistance Highs, May Seasonal Highs

The entire rigging operation is in these charts.

COT AT HIGHS, follows SI price, chart it yourselves.

http://i50.tinypic.com/9rr2ua.jpg
http://i50.tinypic.com/9rr2ua.png

http://i45.tinypic.com/28tuhab.png
http://i45.tinypic.com/28tuhab.png

[MAGNES]

I want to put up my old 2008 CRIMEX SHORTS thread.
Have it saved. It is very long, referenced with all kinds of links and charts.
Same information and analysis applies, as a matter of fact this
year is awfully like 2008, even SI prices knocking on $20, and
nobody believed me when I told them they will crush it down to
at least 1400 - 1200 . Gold is much higher since then but SI is not.

The market is totally corrupted.

Trinity not only ate his hat 2 times so far,
seems he is going to be eating his shoes too. ROFL

But that dude was smart enough to be in SKF
just before SHFT in Sept2008. LOL Another rerun
on that too, and markets ?


Some of my posts. I am all cash and have no
short positions right now cause of strength I saw.

http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/buy-put-options-on-bp/


Also, last week , was reported that someone big was
shorting ABX, front running, good analysts cover this too,
showed this and gave references, LeMetropole especially
for front running and COT analysis.

[Ironfield]

Golds taking a bit of a pounding though. NY closed at 1223 its down now to 1208. wonder if a better buying opportunity will present itself this week?

-Ironfield

[jedemdasseine]

Over the past year, POG's 200 dma has been indefatigable. Almost a straight line, too.

[MAGNES]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42106480801

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42106480801

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42106480801

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42106480801

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58898218817

[gunDriller]

i notice the shorting acitivity moved about 12 hours and 12,000 miles.

it used to be at NYMex in the late morning, early afternoon Eastern time.

now the daily lows are occuring while all the American markets are closed except for NY Globex.

it looks to me like the shorting activity was delegated overseas, possibly to create plausible deniability for NYC banks while the CFTC & DoJ are investigating the shorting.

wonder what the market price would be without the shorting ? i think it would be in the $1250-$1300 territory right now. (for gold, not silver 8) ) - it all the naked shorting had stopped March 25, the time of the CFTC hearings & related webcasts.

which would be an extra 5% down for the US $, which i think is what the market manipulators are trying to avoid.

speaking of market manipulators, there's a great webcast over at King World where the guy talks about the New Fiat Currency they've created to back the existing world currency. The World Bank / IMF have something called "Special Drawing rights", SDR's.

20 banksters in a room creating world currency, using terms like "robust governance". sounds dangerous to me.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/5/13_Jim_Rickards.html

interview with Jim Rickards, who helped negotiate the LTCM bail-out in 1998, which had at its core a 400 ton naked short position on gold that LTCM couldn't cover.


i think they will be doing more shorting on the NYMex tomorrow, Wednesday. it looks like the Asian & European stock markets are worried/panicked - oil is down to $68.

[DMac]

...lifted from a comment by unwashedmass on Zerohedge:

Here's the breakdown of Call options on Gold due to expire on 25th:

Price #Calls
1100 7,105
1150 4,976
1200 18,103
1250 4,781
1300 5,306
1400 6,227
1800 5,814

[Neuro]

The odd thing is that whenever Schiff Sinclair et al starts predicting gold at fantasy levels of several thousands an ounce, we are in for a grand smack down... I would say that they play the gold speculators well, get the new people in at the peak and smack the shit out of them in an instant, probably scares a lot of them away for good... The same thing happened in connection with the peak and smackdown spring summer 2008... I do have serious doubts wether Schiff Sinclair etc really are playing for the same team as the gold bugs...

[MAGNES]

And the drop came. ;D

Let's see how serious they are in closing out shorts.
This would be just the beginning, eventually they
will drop it hard to do just that.

They will keep gold away from 1220, if they do that for
a few days the chart will get uglier, was looking good for
a while staying up there for more than a few days,
they suckered in many longs for sure and buy stops.

http://i47.tinypic.com/2ynf71l.gif

http://i46.tinypic.com/dfd3kl.gif

[MAGNES]

The odd thing is that whenever Schiff Sinclair et al starts predicting gold at fantasy


The MSM was doing this too recently, this is real and no joke,
they want to burn those that can see and they do, the sheeple
are not a part of these battles, long ago there was a study,
The Economist, when they covered gold the next month was
down, manipulation of gold and silver is key to their ponzi
scheme and there are no rules to their behavior, anyone that
does not believe they trick people is not awake about this
market, IMO, anyone not understanding the COT and how
the short operation works is not aware of gold and silver
manipulation, IMO .

This is not about a $ 30 drop in gold, it is about the major
top side resistance key number that was broken to the upside
recently. Key battle line. $ 1220.

[Trinity]

Trinity not only ate his hat 2 times so far,
seems he is going to be eating his shoes too. ROFL

I am all cash and have no
short positions right now cause of strength I saw.



MAGNES good to see you are not shorting the metals here. I don't think this is 2008 at all. My call if you want to make a trade is buy CYB and forget metals, unless you are buying chunks of the stuff and hiding it of course. JMHO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cyb

[MAGNES]

Trinity not only ate his hat 2 times so far,
seems he is going to be eating his shoes too. ROFL

I am all cash and have no
short positions right now cause of strength I saw.



MAGNES good to see you are not shorting the metals here. I don't think this is 2008 at all. My call if you want to make a trade is buy CYB and forget metals, unless you are buying chunks of the stuff and hiding it of course. JMHO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cyb




Thanks, I am set on waiting for COT bottom.
I think they will be doing this for a few years.
If you remember people were asking me in that
thread what the Price bottom is and I always
said I do not know, that is not what I am doing
here, so I am not predicting prices here, just
the level where we are now helps you guess
where we could go. Remember too how weak
silver becomes, just drops while gold goes
sideways, we have seen this many times.

[MAGNES]

As people can see I am making comments in real time
and the opening post was before silver getting hammered
big, it was about 1220 being fought, lots of resistance
on the way down, 1150, 1100 .

2 bucks down while gold in percentage terms is
going relatively sideways compared to silver.
10 % vs 5 %, ratios expanding again.

It is very possible that gold comes back,
2 more weeks of strength, if we get a pop
like 2 weeks ago in SI , + $1.00 in one day.

USD rose with gold so what transpires will be
very interesting and very educational IMO.

The market ain't rigged, ROFL .

How is the "comex countdown" doing ? ROFL

Made lots of comments in that thread,
similar to here.

T minus 3 months for a bottom. That's my countdown.

[Neuro]

...lifted from a comment by unwashedmass on Zerohedge:
Here's the breakdown of Call options on Gold due to expire on 25th:
Price #Call
1100 7,105
1150 4,976
1200 18,103
1250 4,781
1300 5,306
1400 6,227
1800 5,814

Seems like the target is to keep it under 1200 at the 25th...

[JohnQPublic]

...lifted from a comment by unwashedmass on Zerohedge:
Here's the breakdown of Call options on Gold due to expire on 25th:
Price #Call
1100 7,105
1150 4,976
1200 18,103
1250 4,781
1300 5,306
1400 6,227
1800 5,814

Seems like the target is to keep it under 1200 at the 25th...


According to Harvey Organ (http://gold-silver.us/forum/gold-silver-precious-metals/interesting-comments-on-comex/msg45459/#msg45459):

In the option department for gold contracts, it is a disaster zone for our cartel members;

"In case you hadn't checked yet, the June Options Expiration is coming up next Tuesday, May 25:

price calls
1100 7,105
1150 4,976
1200 18,103 - W-O-W !
1250 4,781
1300 5,306
1400 6,227
1800 5,814 - W-o-w again: at +1800+ !

PLUS +another+ 18,000 (or so, aggregated) from 1155 to 1195.

That sets up a task for the Cartel to take gold down to 1150 if they want to neutralize some 41,000 potential calls for delivery. Alternatively: if they fail, perhaps the melt-up will finally start. High stakes..."

[Trinity]

That sets up a task for the Cartel to take gold down to 1150 if they want to neutralize some 41,000 potential calls for delivery. Alternatively: if they fail, perhaps the melt-up will finally start. High stakes..."

Ok so we have our lines in the sand. I say the cartel plays the part of Antiochus and the Gold bugs stand with Popillius. ;D

[MAGNES]

Looking at options is very real and important,
you can do a basic calculation looking at OI
and trying to figure out what their optimized
gold and silver price is. They know to the penny
considering they are MM and know all price
entries, profits, even before it happens,
everything is computerized calculation, it is
simple for them. Even though they make huge
money as MM and rigged market, they are
misers and try to minimize payouts and use
other strategies that deal with deliveries, etc .

Sooner or later they got to pull the plug to closeout.

Options come into play here too.

[Trinity]

Is tomorrow the day for the big knockdown try MAGNES? Not that I trade I just like to watch the battle. I do have miners though.

[jedemdasseine]

This feels more like 2008 than 2009. BIS accepts gold and dollars as payment, not silver. Don't underestimate political will and Triffin's dilemma.

Watch the velocity of money instead of the quantity.

EDIT: nothing wrong with silver, but silver is more of a localized market than gold. Gold is more international. Why? It can take months and very high costs to ship large quantities of silver overseas, which is why it rarely happens. But gold is shipped to and from India, the UK, Australia, and other countries quickly, cheaply, and regularly. For small transactions and one's local economy, think silver. (Also, the rich scum at the Top have lots of gold but relatively less silver.)

[JohnQPublic]

According to Harvey Organ (http://gold-silver.us/forum/gold-silver-precious-metals/harvey-organ's-comments-for-this-week/), the shorts should expire today, and we should be able to start moving up again (probably after COMEX close).

[jedemdasseine]

No doubt. This week should be a turning point.

[jedemdasseine]

Larry Kudlow couldn't control himself on CNBC today. Every 5 minutes he was blabbing on about gold unable to break 1200.

I didn't think they'd really care so much about 1200 gold, but it appears they do looking at the intraday data.

[gunDriller]

Larry Kudlow couldn't control himself on CNBC today. Every 5 minutes he was blabbing on about gold unable to break 1200.

I didn't think they'd really care so much about 1200 gold, but it appears they do looking at the intraday data.

he seems like an idiot but he gets paid decent $ to be an idiot. pay me $500K a year and i might be willing to talk about the virtues of divident paying stocks or whatever it is that Kudlow is high on.

i wonder if he secretly buys physical gold on the side.

[JohnQPublic]

This chart (http://www.kitco.com/reports/template_jimw.htm) speaks volumes! :)

[MAGNES]

They are still fighting this, gold broke out past 1220 and
they been holding the line at that pop, 1265, knocked it
down hard from there a few times, OI has been popping
even higher on both, shorts higher too, took some short
positions, mostly close to the money puts for august ex.
Lost a few bucks doing this last cycle, but it is summer now,
good setup on Monday morning.

[platinumdude]

Gold now at 1217, down $25. They must be pushing hard.

[k-os]

Gold down 44.30 to $1198.

What the heck? I walked away from my computer for a couple hours and wham!

[StackerKen]

Gold down 44.30 to $1198.

What the heck? I walked away from my computer for a couple hours and wham!


what exactly were you doing?

We know the Dow drops when you go to the gym...

So what did you do to make gold drop K-os?

[k-os]

Gold down 44.30 to $1198.

What the heck? I walked away from my computer for a couple hours and wham!


what exactly were you doing?

We know the Dow drops when you go to the gym...

So what did you do to make gold drop K-os?



Lunch with my dad, every Thursday. So, unless gold drops every Thursday around lunchtime, then I think I am in the clear and not at all responsible for this decline . . . or influencing the decline in any way. ;D

[DMac]

Firesale!

1196.50

[StackerKen]

Gold down 44.30 to $1198.

What the heck? I walked away from my computer for a couple hours and wham!


what exactly were you doing?

We know the Dow drops when you go to the gym...

So what did you do to make gold drop K-os?



Lunch with my dad, every Thursday. So, unless gold drops every Thursday around lunchtime, then I think I am in the clear and not at all responsible for this decline . . . or influencing the decline in any way. ;D


OKay....If you say so... ;D

[oldmansmith]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

[Trinity]

They are still fighting this, gold broke out past 1220 and
they been holding the line at that pop, 1265, knocked it
down hard from there a few times, OI has been popping
even higher on both, shorts higher too, took some short
positions, mostly close to the money puts for august ex.
Lost a few bucks doing this last cycle, but it is summer now,
good setup on Monday morning.


Well done MAGNES.

[BrewTech]

Firesale!

1196.50


I'm thinking the same thing... I was hoping it would stay up because I may have to liquidate a bit soon, but at this rate of decline I may be a buyer instead.

Speaking of buyers... anybody seen GoldBuyer123 lately? The forums just aren't the same without him.

::)

[Steal]

Firesale!

1196.50


I'm thinking the same thing... I was hoping it would stay up because I may have to liquidate a bit soon, but at this rate of decline I may be a buyer instead.

Speaking of buyers... anybody seen GoldBuyer123 lately? The forums just aren't the same without him.

::)


In the same boat. Had to liquidate 4 kruggs this am. Was going to wait and see if could get a few dollars more. Decided against waiting, just wanted to be done with it, and damm glad I did. Got out at $1,265 each. Then turned around and bought 2 Buffs at the same price. Could not help it. Have a soft spot for adding to the herd.

[BrewTech]

Firesale!

1196.50


I'm thinking the same thing... I was hoping it would stay up because I may have to liquidate a bit soon, but at this rate of decline I may be a buyer instead.

Speaking of buyers... anybody seen GoldBuyer123 lately? The forums just aren't the same without him.

::)


In the same boat. Had to liquidate 4 kruggs this am. Was going to wait and see if could get a few dollars more. Decided against waiting, just wanted to be done with it, and damm glad I did. Got out at $1,265 each. Then turned around and bought 2 Buffs at the same price. Could not help it. Have a soft spot for adding to the herd.


LOL I did something like that last time... meant to liquidate a bit of gold FOR CASH and ended up bying some silver with the proceeds anyway... I'm a junkie I guess... ;D

[Sparky]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

I think $1120 is a reasonable target for this summer's low.

[the white rabbit]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

I think $1120 is a reasonable target for this summer's low.
Spark when Gold was at 1000 you said it will go 900 then 1100 to 1000 and so on. You must good at breathing water. I will hold on his one we will see.

[MAGNES]

A bullish pennant on gold was forming and they
broke it hard to the downside, and they broke it
past 1220, usually you see some demand on
Mon Tues raise prices and weaker ending weeks,
right now if they are serious of taking it down hard
the setup is here, a full correction would be 30 %
and a blow off bottom maybe, like we have seen
for many years except last summer,

THE KEY is the COT chart, closing out positions,
a full bottom on OI and shorts this summer, we
don't know where silver will land but it will have
to be hit hard, sub 1600 for their short operation
to complete the cycle, they could close out through
volatility, some swings between 1450 and 1250,
these numbers stand out cause of the last correction
this winter a few months ago and last summer in July.
Consider they only closed out only 20K+ contracts getting
it down to 1450 and quickly bought back as well,
didn't stay there long. At minimum they have to do the
same. And that wouldn't even close out their shorts
to a comfortable level, they need to do that to buy
breathing room for capping prices.

Picking prices, a bottom on both, that is not what we
are doing here, SI will land where ever ? Who knows,
the possibility for severe price destruction is more than
possible, it depends what they want to do with the
CRIMEX SHORTS operation, complete closeouts to bottoms
of past or half way like this winter and last summer. ? ? ?

Picking COT bottoms is easier, SI will land somewhere low . LOL

Lots of bad news coming end of this summer and fall it seems.
Like 2008 all over again. ? ? ?

I am not putting charts up, like before,
consider USDX what it did on thursday, lol ,
86.25 to 84.5, gold got hammered, the
market ain't rigged, lol . Price is whatever
they say it is. Consider the pennant formation
too.

COT rules this market, seasonals and they paint
the technicals, use them to their advantage too.
And that is what this thread is about and what
my major CRIMEX thread on agora was about.
Everything else is noise. And there are still people
asking what is going on even on here, lol .

[MAGNES]

They are still fighting this, gold broke out past 1220 and
they been holding the line at that pop, 1265, knocked it
down hard from there a few times, OI has been popping
even higher on both, shorts higher too, took some short
positions, mostly close to the money puts for august ex.
Lost a few bucks doing this last cycle, but it is summer now,
good setup on Monday morning.


Well done MAGNES.


Thanks, I have picked out setups for drops like this lots of times,
last summer and this winter, last summer at 10 % GC correction,
I thought that was the setup for a drop, didn't sell my at the money
puts on SI , blew 3 X, broke my own rules, this time I won't break my
rules, take the multiple ect, I will be at 3 X at 1600 SI
with no premiums paid, thats for my worst positions at 1825P AugEXP, ;D .
I will pull the trigger right there no matter.
I have some cheap long shots too for July EXP, 1550P for .04.
Monday will be interesting.

And I won't mention the hats, lol . ;D

Lost quite a few bucks buying puts though for last year.

Wait for going long, that is the conservative move
and that is what the majority of my account is waiting
for.

[MAGNES]

BULLISH PENNANT FORMATION BROKEN TO DOWN SIDE
ON KEY NUMBERS AND ACTION, spoken to above

USDX GOES DOWN TOO, now that is supply and demand and the
free market working, ROFL !


WE ARE WATCHING GOLD, pulling triggers on silver,
these are charts to save, it will happen again, next cycle
at different prices, like last 4 years I been watching

RIGHT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE, this forum shrinks them, but
original is good.

http://i49.tinypic.com/be7gg8.gif

http://i50.tinypic.com/2uykc3d.png

http://i48.tinypic.com/30j4llx.png

http://i50.tinypic.com/nwxx5s.png

[MAGNES]

No comments or questions to above charts and info ? Okay ! It is all there.

Compare SI prices to COT. Timely charts going back a year that match.
The lows and highs were more pronounced and obvious in previous years.

GC and SI look like they did last week, it is Mondy July 12 and looks weak,
they are keeping it sub 1220 again, now 1200, SI showed some strength today VS
GC mid NY session, for GC the next $50 south is a huge wall of Resistance,
they will take it out, sooner or later it has to happen, the SI shorts were closed
out modestly to Tuesday July 6 report that came out Friday July 9. OI peaked
and diving.

This week is key week, will they fight it now, sub 1220 is key, the drops will
be hard and fast, beginning of week there is usually demand, end of week
there is usually weakness, especially Friday where trading is usually thinner,
they use that to their advantage, Thursdays are usually setup days half way
through NY pit session, around 11:00 you see weakness, looking for these
same patterns to materialize, let's see.

[Book]

No comments or questions to above charts and info ?



http://www.nkusa.org/activities/conferences/Lebanon0205/rabbis.jpg

Tell us how those three guys in the City Of London decide what the worldwide price of gold is each day. You know...what Kitco and everybody else posts as "the" official price...lol.

[Sparky]

I would welcome gold below $1150 this summer...

[Book]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7884272/Secret-gold-swap-has-spooked-the-market.html

Free marketplace in gold where buyers and sellers establish the price...lol.

:oo-->

[Trinity]

No comments or questions to above charts and info ? Okay ! It is all there.

Compare SI prices to COT. Timely charts going back a year that match.
The lows and highs were more pronounced and obvious in previous years.

GC and SI look like they did last week, it is Mondy July 12 and looks weak,
they are keeping it sub 1220 again, now 1200, SI showed some strength today VS
GC mid NY session, for GC the next $50 south is a huge wall of Resistance,
they will take it out, sooner or later it has to happen, the SI shorts were closed
out modestly to Tuesday July 6 report that came out Friday July 9. OI peaked
and diving.

This week is key week, will they fight it now, sub 1220 is key, the drops will
be hard and fast, beginning of week there is usually demand, end of week
there is usually weakness, especially Friday where trading is usually thinner,
they use that to their advantage, Thursdays are usually setup days half way
through NY pit session, around 11:00 you see weakness, looking for these
same patterns to materialize, let's see.






MAGNES, I say take your profit now on your metal shorts JMHO. And if you take a look recently the second half of the week metals have done better.

[platinumdude]

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsJuly192010_am.html

Comex gold futures prices are slightly lower in lackluster trading Monday morning, as traders await fresh fundamental inputs to give the market direction. August Comex gold is hovering near important technical support at the July low of $1,185.00. August gold last traded down $1.90 an ounce at $1,186.30. Spot gold was last quoted down $7.10 at $1,186.50.

Traders are awaiting the stress test results for European Union financial institutions, due out Friday. There is also fresh economic news on the U.S. front this week, with the highlight being Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress Wednesday. On Monday, the U.S. housing market index is issued by the National Association of Home Builders.

The U.S. dollar is trading slightly higher Monday morning. The inability of gold prices to rally recently, amid the sliding U.S. dollar index, has worried the gold market bulls. The Euro currency is weaker Monday in subdued trading.

In other overnight news, Barlcays Capital said it sees investment demand for gold remaining strong as it believes investors will look to hold hard assets during the continued financial market uncertainty. Barclays said if world interest rates start to rise again, investor demand for gold could begin to ease.

The London A.M. gold fix was $1,190.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,189.25.

Technically, August Comex gold futures prices are trading near a pivotal price level Monday morning: the July low of $1,185.00. A solid push in prices below that important technical level would produce fresh technical damage to suggest more downside price pressure in the near term. Gold prices are presently in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Prices on Friday closed at a bearish weekly low close and closed at the lowest closing price level in two months.

For the gold market bulls to gain fresh upside near-term technical momentum, they will have to push and close August futures prices back above solid chart resistance at last week's high of $1,218.80 an ounce. The bears' next downside price objective is producing a close in August gold futures below strong chart support at the July low of $1,185.00.

For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,194.70 and then at $1,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Heavy sell stops likely reside just below chart support at the July low of $1,185.00 and then at $1,175.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci pivot level for August gold: $1,178.00.

Comex silver futures are trading weaker Monday morning. December silver last traded down 5.7 cents at $17.79 an ounce. Bears gained some fresh downside near-term momentum on Friday as prices closed at a bearish weekly low close.

The next near-term upside price objective for the silver market bulls is to push and close December Comex futures prices above solid chart resistance at last week's high of $18.59 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the silver bears is to push and close December silver prices below solid technical support at the July low of $17.64.

December silver finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of $17.995 and then at $18.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support for December silver is located at the July low of $17.64 and then at $17.50. Sell stops are likely placed just below those levels. Today's key Fibonacci pivot level for December silver futures is located at $17.89.

[1970 silver art]

Looks like gold is getting badly defeated in the battle for $1220 but it will come back. I just do not know when it will do so.

[Sparky]

200 DMA currently around $1135.

[1970 silver art]

200 DMA currently around $1135.


Sparky,

If gold breaks the 200 DMA of 1135 on the downside, is that considered "bearish" with more downside possibly to the next support level? Or is it possible for gold to fall to that 200 DMA and bounce back from that level?

[Sparky]

200 DMA currently around $1135.


Sparky,

If gold breaks the 200 DMA of 1135 on the downside, is that considered "bearish" with more downside possibly to the next support level? Or is it possible for gold to fall to that 200 DMA and bounce back from that level?

The three support levels are today's low (~$1180), the 200 DMA (~$1130), and the .382 Fib retracement from the Fall 2008 bottom to the June 2010 top (~$1050). It depends what time-frame you mean for bearish. It's been short-term bearish for a couple of weeks. I suspect it will bottom at either $1130 or $1050. If it breaks much below $1050, it would become medium-term bearish, with support at the .618 retracement of $910. It would have to break below that to put the long-term gold bull in doubt. Since fundamentals have not changed, that would be a tremendous buying opportunity. However, I think that either the $1050 or $1130 will hold, and we will not see sub-$1000 again until the next bear bottom is established 20 years from now.

[MAGNES]

Bunch of voodoo in my thread, Silver Art, you ask voodoo artists for answers , ROFL !

SI is sitting on 200 dma , that is more important right now, and the fact that the pennant
on gold broke to the downside with USDX going down too, we are talking the shorts here
and a rigged market and I am explaining it to you.

HUI also, front running, more manipulation proof, cutting through 200.

I have been consistent for years talking about this, now everyone else
get back to your voodoo fibanacci, lol, and idiot waves, people that have
always been totally clueless to gold market manipulation, always.

Charts looks like sh*t, they washed out everyone. And the setup is here.

The goal is COT high destruction. And they will achieve it like past.
Only question is how complete, last summer was anomaly, not
complete, this march was partial, so that is the question, will old
lows be reached, 2008, 2007, 2006, not even talking SI prices here,
just COT chart, the whole market rigging operation is in chart.

MONDAY JULY 19 , again USDX down to sideways, gc and si down to sideways.
No pressure to buy on key numbers like recently. COT at all time highs.
They can drop it hard anytime now. GC breaks wall all way down to 200,
SI is going to look like biggest dog on planet, lol . I'll post my payday,
or you will know my losses, don't weep, don't praise, just laugh, I too
will laugh either way and swear either way, lol .

[MAGNES]

MAGNES, I say take your profit now on your metal shorts JMHO. And if you take a look recently the second half of the week metals have done better.


My profits already shrunk, lol, all of you could of got in at close to what I paid for some.

End of week if strong is bullish signal, and you have to watch Asia for bullishness,
they counter some times, usually when take down time comes, when they decide,
Thurs and Fridays are weak, and you have some sort of bottom on Mon, Tues,
remember all the incredible drops Sunday night, Mon, Tues, going back years, they were
set up on Thurs, Fri, and this Fri it happened again, 10 AM , 11 AM drops, and USDX
dropping too, lol, just like my long CRIMEX SHORTS thread for 2008, setup on Friday was
1575 then they destroyed it, some were saying buy and I explained the same thing
then. They gotta close out, we are sitting on a major fault line now, anything can
happen but the setup is here again, they worked hard to bring it here, they won't
squander their opportunity, don't see SI buying at key support line, HUI
just broke 200, the front running we talked about, later today I will look at it more
closely. Key stocks may be more pronounced.

[MAGNES]

No comments or questions to above charts and info ? Okay ! It is all there.

Compare SI prices to COT. Timely charts going back a year that match.
The lows and highs were more pronounced and obvious in previous years.

GC and SI look like they did last week, it is Mondy July 12 and looks weak,
they are keeping it sub 1220 again, now 1200, SI showed some strength today VS
GC mid NY session, for GC the next $50 south is a huge wall of Resistance,
they will take it out, sooner or later it has to happen, the SI shorts were closed
out modestly to Tuesday July 6 report that came out Friday July 9. OI peaked
and diving.

This week is key week, will they fight it now, sub 1220 is key, the drops will
be hard and fast, beginning of week there is usually demand, end of week
there is usually weakness, especially Friday where trading is usually thinner,
they use that to their advantage, Thursdays are usually setup days half way
through NY pit session, around 11:00 you see weakness, looking for these
same patterns to materialize, let's see.



That was 7 days ago. LOL

Looks even weaker now and total rerun so far of 2008.

Will they go for GC full correction of 30 % according to Hamilton/Zeal
analysis that has been right for every year except for last, as their
student in 2006 their work is most important and proved profitable,
much of it is free, go to zeal, lol .

Another key point is options, they don't have a huge put payday they
would have had to pay out on other months, mostly cause July Expirey
only became available recently, doesn't even show up in some quote
services, lol, is this deliberate, ? . We discussed options above,
look at OI puts, not like other past months. They are misers and they
won't pay out if they do not have to.

I don't have time to save and post charts, you people should do it for yourselves,
save them, I still look at old folders with charts that match dates, year over year,
SI, GC, COT and daily stuff too. USDX, metals and even stocks like PAAS, SSRI,
GG, PAAS got clobbered for small move in SI , lol, so far, we showed front running
in 2008 thread with charts and even market commentary by other analysts, end
of day is key. Right now it is 2PM.

[Trinity]

I'm too one dimensional to join in with you on the short side MAGNES. But I will watch what you post here and wait until you take profit from your shorts before I make my next physical purchase.

[MAGNES]

I'm too one dimensional to join in with you on the short side MAGNES. But I will watch what you post here and wait until you take profit from your shorts before I make my next physical purchase.


Looks weak, not bouncing hard off 1185, silver making lower lows too,
showed some strength today and when everyone went home after NY
pit session, electronic trading, they knocked it down pretty hard and
steep, this shows again they are working on it, and they can kill it
anytime, only a matter of when they decide to close out, SI sitting
on major fault line 200 dma, etc, where will SI land if they decide
to drop gold past huge resistance, ? , GC whole wall of R down I see
from here all the way down to dma for first stop. Last year they took
gold down to 900 and I thought is was due for more and was wrong.
If you gonna buy metal buy it and don't blame me later. ;D
My money is on some huge drops. Thurs Fri and next week two
days will be very interesting. Especially after this afternoon drop
after some strength was shown in NY.

[gunDriller]

If you gonna buy metal buy it and don't blame me later. ;D
My money is on some huge drops. Thurs Fri and next week two
days will be very interesting. Especially after this afternoon drop
after some strength was shown in NY.


options expiry July 28. volatility ahead !

what do mean by a "huge drop" ? 4% ? more than 4% ?

[Steal]

Looking like about a 2% drop at the moment and gaining. Hmmm itchy finger syndrome.

[Trinity]

Did you cash in your short positions yet MAGNES?

[platinumdude]

Looks like the fight is winning today.

[Sparky]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

I think $1120 is a reasonable target for this summer's low.
Spark when Gold was at 1000 you said it will go 900 then 1100 to 1000 and so on. You must good at breathing water. I will hold on his one we will see.

That's fair criticism. The low so far has been $1157 on July 28th, so I'm still $37 short. Some years the summer doldrums drag into mid-October, so we'll see if we've already established the low. I'm happy you were paying attention!

[the white rabbit]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

I think $1120 is a reasonable target for this summer's low.
Spark when Gold was at 1000 you said it will go 900 then 1100 to 1000 and so on. You must good at breathing water. I will hold on his one we will see.

That's fair criticism. The low so far has been $1157 on July 28th, so I'm still $37 short. Some years the summer doldrums drag into mid-October, so we'll see if we've already established the low. I'm happy you were paying attention!
Hey Spark when gold hits 1300 you can say it going to 1200 and you might be right !

[Sparky]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

I think $1120 is a reasonable target for this summer's low.
Spark when Gold was at 1000 you said it will go 900 then 1100 to 1000 and so on. You must good at breathing water. I will hold on his one we will see.

That's fair criticism. The low so far has been $1157 on July 28th, so I'm still $37 short. Some years the summer doldrums drag into mid-October, so we'll see if we've already established the low. I'm happy you were paying attention!
Hey Spark when gold hits 1300 you can say it going to 1200 and you might be right !


If gold hits $1300, I'll have to say I was wrong on the $1120 call. We'd have to punch through the $1262 high with volume. I won't be convinced we've hit this year's bottom until we get through mid-October, so we have another 7-8 weeks to go. Then I'll throw in the towel!

[the white rabbit]

No doom and gloom from me, gold holding above $1,200 during the"summer doldrums" is great. If it goes much lower I am getting out my shovel for some FRN's.

I think $1120 is a reasonable target for this summer's low.
Spark when Gold was at 1000 you said it will go 900 then 1100 to 1000 and so on. You must good at breathing water. I will hold on his one we will see.

That's fair criticism. The low so far has been $1157 on July 28th, so I'm still $37 short. Some years the summer doldrums drag into mid-October, so we'll see if we've already established the low. I'm happy you were paying attention!
Hey Spark when gold hits 1300 you can say it going to 1200 and you might be right !


If gold hits $1300, I'll have to say I was wrong on the $1120 call. We'd have to punch through the $1262 high with volume. I won't be convinced we've hit this year's bottom until we get through mid-October, so we have another 7-8 weeks to go. Then I'll throw in the towel!
If you cannot get the price target change the time frame to suit your your price call.Thats funny lol

[the white rabbit]

Can someone tell Sparky when Summer is over !!

[Sparky]

Can someone tell Sparky when Summer is over !!


The "summer season" for depressed gold prices generally runs from late May through mid September. Historically, there's another leg down during the first three weeks of October. I'm just saying that I won't be confident that the gold price is out of the woods until we get through that.

If we haven't gotten down to $1120 by then, then I'll have to eat some crow for Halloween. I'm sure you'll remind me!!

[MAGNES]

Did you cash in your short positions yet MAGNES?


I watched SI go down twice and back up, 2 close to the money puts,
third time, sold at 1750 and took my profits and bought puts at 1700,
that went to ZERO, LOL !, right now I am looking for an entry again,
but have to buy Dec puts for Nov Exp, don't want to do that.
I'll buy two again, I paid roughly 0.75 for both puts last time,
want to do the same again. 1875P at 0.75 would be nice, safe small
bet, 7 figure gain down to 14's. We are not going to see higher highs.
Shorts did not close anything out, even last summer they did better
and last downturn they did better closing out. Maybe I will lose more
money, lol .

@ White Rabbit, this thread is mostly about the COT chart and CRIMEX.
I have successfully picked and posted intermediate highs regularly,
the magnitude of the drops have not materialized like other years.
Go look at some charts to see this, and compare price to COT levels.
Far out of the money puts may make you big money on a drop like that,
which is why I have lost money this last year and becoming more conservative
only on right setup buying at near highs and close to the money.

Click SI and GC, these charts are keepers.
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/

[MAGNES]

If gold hits $1300, I'll have to say I was wrong on the $1120 call. We'd have to punch through the $1262 high with volume. I won't be convinced we've hit this year's bottom until we get through mid-October, so we have another 7-8 weeks to go. Then I'll throw in the towel!


I am ready to put some money on this, lol, and ready to lose more or break even again, lol .

We ain't going to be seeing new highs here with COT levels like this, I don't believe it,
they got to get ready for next run up and give themselves breathing room, but then
again maybe they have something special planned for us, another market meltdown too ?
You can never know for certain.

[MAGNES]

Just went short again, at SI 1960, gold is front running SI too it seems, lol .

Slightly smaller positions, didn't get Dec puts for Nov Expire,
that would of been best.

1 @ nov1900P at less 0.56 , $2800 , and 3 @ oct1650 for 0.023 , $390

The bet is on a labor day special on silver, lol, I am probably wrong, lol .

A safer bet would of been dec1950P at about a buck, maybe getting two.

I think I am covered, no new highs, they don't like SI in 1900's,
the COT chart needs to be dealt with, the shorts, they didn't do
it so the bet has a few things going for it, plus gold is moving
down faster than SI, it is labor day long weekend, we got 2 hours
left this friday for trading, lol, a few things going for me.

I am done buying puts after this, they did sh*t this summer,
very disappointing, if it doesn't drop, it has too sooner or later,
they got to close out shorts, so wait for opportunities, that is
what the majority of my account is doing, did it before and did
well other years. Signals off of COT chart mostly, seasonals,
etc, 35 % corrections, main 3 .

EDIT ADD, 1230PM EST, I was off a whole quarter on SI, lol, could of
moved my strikes up 0.25 and maybe even gotten a fourth
put way out of the money for less, same total, lol , 0.015 , lol .

This all means that SI and GC are going to break to new highs
next week, and I lose a few grand again, lol , let's see.

SI in the 20's, :o .

[the white rabbit]

Just went short again, at SI 1960, gold is front running SI too it seems, lol .

Slightly smaller positions, didn't get Dec puts for Nov Expire,
that would of been best.

1 @ nov1900P at less 0.56 , $2800 , and 3 @ oct1650 for 0.023 , $390

The bet is on a labor day special on silver, lol, I am probably wrong, lol .

A safer bet would of been dec1950P at about a buck, maybe getting two.

I think I am covered, no new highs, they don't like SI in 1900's,
the COT chart needs to be dealt with, the shorts, they didn't do
it so the bet has a few things going for it, plus gold is moving
down faster than SI, it is labor day long weekend, we got 2 hours
left this friday for trading, lol, a few things going for me.

I am done buying puts after this, they did sh*t this summer,
very disappointing, if it doesn't drop, it has too sooner or later,
they got to close out shorts, so wait for opportunities, that is
what the majority of my account is doing, did it before and did
well other years. Signals off of COT chart mostly, seasonals,
etc, 35 % corrections, main 3 .

EDIT ADD, 1230PM EST, I was off a whole quarter on SI, lol, could of
moved my strikes up 0.25 and maybe even gotten a fourth
put way out of the money for less, same total, lol , 0.015 , lol .

This all means that SI and GC are going to break to new highs
next week, and I lose a few grand again, lol , let's see.

SI in the 20's, :o .


Still have that short on ?

[the white rabbit]

Can someone tell Sparky when Summer is over !!


The "summer season" for depressed gold prices generally runs from late May through mid September. Historically, there's another leg down during the first three weeks of October. I'm just saying that I won't be confident that the gold price is out of the woods until we get through that.

If we haven't gotten down to $1120 by then, then I'll have to eat some crow for Halloween. I'm sure you'll remind me!!
Hey Spark was there enough volume on that push past $1262 ?

[Sparky]

Can someone tell Sparky when Summer is over !!


The "summer season" for depressed gold prices generally runs from late May through mid September. Historically, there's another leg down during the first three weeks of October. I'm just saying that I won't be confident that the gold price is out of the woods until we get through that.

If we haven't gotten down to $1120 by then, then I'll have to eat some crow for Halloween. I'm sure you'll remind me!!
Hey Spark was there enough volume on that push past $1262 ?


Interesting that there was high volume on Tuesday when it broke through, but not on the follow-through these last couple of days. The GLD volume normally runs about 12M shares per day, and had been doing much less than that recently, which made me question a breakout. On Tuesday there were 26M shares sold. Then back to 12M these last three days.

I don't really have a good sense of the near-term move. I thought today being options expiration, there would be a clearer signal, but it was flat all afternoon. I still hold my short trading position from $1258, but will bail out if I have to. (Of course, my long term PM stock holdings and my physical holdings continue to enjoy the ride, so I'm not totally crying in my soup here.)

What I've also noticed is that silver hasn't quite reached its 30-month high of $21.25 set in March 2008. It got to $21.03 today. I would like to see how both metals react if/when that is breached. I'll probably hold my short position until then.

[MAGNES]

Still have that short on ?


My 3 Sept ex puts expired, and my Oct ex , 1 put is most likely going to 0 too.
That's 3200 down the tube. Buying puts is not a good move for anyone and I
would not encourage anyone to do it, I have turned 3 K into good money many
times though. Not on puts going back a year though, big loses here. Looked like
good setups for major drops, etc, no summer drop, first time in years, even last
year 10% on gold was nothing compared to other years.

On the COT analysis, they will hit it and close out,
timing it on a setup and right position is another thing.

I don't see them closing out to the lows on the COT 2006-2008,
maybe closing out to 2009 lows on charts. Then I will go long.

Next few days is key, is this blow off top for SI , $ 22.90 ?
If so it won't be there very long, if not shorts are going to sh*t.
Being blatant never stopped them in the past.

[Sparky]

Can someone tell Sparky when Summer is over !!


The "summer season" for depressed gold prices generally runs from late May through mid September. Historically, there's another leg down during the first three weeks of October. I'm just saying that I won't be confident that the gold price is out of the woods until we get through that.

If we haven't gotten down to $1120 by then, then I'll have to eat some crow for Halloween. I'm sure you'll remind me!!
Hey Spark was there enough volume on that push past $1262 ?


Uncle!

[the white rabbit]

Can someone tell Sparky when Summer is over !!


The "summer season" for depressed gold prices generally runs from late May through mid September. Historically, there's another leg down during the first three weeks of October. I'm just saying that I won't be confident that the gold price is out of the woods until we get through that.

If we haven't gotten down to $1120 by then, then I'll have to eat some crow for Halloween. I'm sure you'll remind me!!
Hey Spark was there enough volume on that push past $1262 ?


Uncle!
You must like pain ?