How long until they admit "Top Kill" Failed?

[Quantum]

Headlines of "Top Kill 'seems' to be working" have been displaced by headlines of "Obama says spill top priority"

[ximmy]

Yeah,,, it appears completely benign

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/26/bp-oil-spill-live-feed-vi_n_590635.html


:o

[Quantum]

"Coast Guard Lt. Commander Tony Russell said Thursday reports that Admiral Thad Allen, who is overseeing the operation, had called the procedure a success were incorrect. "

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/05/26/bp-says-effort-plug-spill-going-planned/

[Quantum]

Looks like a "success" to me...

http://interactive.foxnews.com/livestream/live.html?chanId=3

(live feed, oil spewing as before)

I guess it's down from 3 Exxon Valdezes per week to 2 Exxon Valdezes per week. ::)

[Ponce]

Like I said before..........they cap the main one and then........what about the other three or four coming directly out of the ground???

[keehah]

Oil Drum comments just told that 30,000 barrels of mud has been used so far. Maximum 1,400 barrels could have gone down the pipe).
It has been about 24 hours since they started, and I agree with many who comment the flow rates are about the same as the leak was (even if now mud, but still would have liked to observe the other main leak).

This could support a 30,000 barrels a day leak rate estimate, but really one needs to see what the other leak was doing.

Perhaps the top kill it can still work, I expect if the plan is continuing, concrete should start being pumped down.

My bet is they stop leakage from the BOP riser but not the pipe. This would not slow things down much

Edit: Here is an image from Quantum's link of the pipe. It seems to be mostly mud as well. A good sign, but there still is oil leaking!

http://www.foxnews.com/static/managed/img/U.S./052610_oil01_monster_397x224.jpg
DISASTERS BP's 'Top Kill' Effort Slowing Oil, But Leak Not Fixed Yet (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/05/26/bp-says-effort-plug-spill-going-planned/)

[Quixote2]

So the leak now is about 30,000 barrels of mud per day. Evidently they can pump about 1,000 barrels of mud per hour down the mile long hose. Must be a lot of pressure at the top to overcome the pressure drop in the mud pipe plus pressure at the well head. If they cannot overwelm the leak rate (another 10,000-15,000) barrels of mud, they cannot push the oil column back down the well pipe and then substitute cement to fill the pipe.

It sounds like it is failing to me.

[keehah]

Breaking: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6516

Admiral Allen, who is the Government head of the effort to cap the flowing well in the Gulf, and to oversee the cleanup operation, commented this morning that the well had reached a point where the internal pressure difference between the mud pumped in and the reservoir pressure was very low. However, with the relatively high volume of leakage that was passing through the BOP, the plan now included a try at blocking some of that leakage path by injecting debris (for which likely read rubber strips and small spheres) in the hope that these will lodge in the flow path within the BOP and reduce the leakage of fluid.

We still may get to see golf balls. :-*

[mick silver]

i seen of fox news that a senator from Alaska said the oil was coming out at a million gallon a day from day one

[Quantum]

Earlier in the day, officials had been encouraged that the heavy drilling fluid, known as mud, being pumped into the well appeared to be working. But the fluid had not yet overcome the upward pressure of the escaping oil and gas, according to Coast Guard commandant Adm. Thad W. Allen.

“They said this could take 24 to 36 hours, and they are in the process of monitoring it,” Admiral Allen said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28spill.html?hp

[Twisted Titan]

i seen of fox news that a senator from Alaska said the oil was coming out at a million gallon a day from day one



Nobody will know the official number and the reverberation will be felt for the rest of our lifetime

I assume it will be much much worse.


T

[DMac]

NYTimes (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28spill.html):


HOUSTON — BP had to halt its ambitious effort to plug its stricken oil well in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon when engineers saw that too much of the drilling fluid they were injecting into the well was escaping along with the leaking crude oil...

:o

[osoab]

[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28spill.html?hp

From NY Times


Not much at the article, though.


But someone posted this @ GLP


Check this out guys: The top snapshot is from 10:05 am today.
The second is from 3:14 pm today.

Using Photoshop, I removed all the yellow from the pics to elimanate the light source and this is what was left.....

link to pics (http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff73/depompey/BP_mess.jpg)




The quote is near the bottom of the page.

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1077360/pg129


Can anyone here reproduce these?


Looks to me thatthis is mostly oil. Would they use filters to screw with the video?

Has anyone else been taking screen shots for prosperity?

[J in AZ]

Thursday, May 27, 2010
Prominent Oil Industry Insider: "There's Another Leak, Much Bigger, 5 to 6 Miles Away"


Matt Simmons was an energy adviser to President George W. Bush, is an adviser to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, and is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. Simmon is chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, an investment bank catering to oil companies.

Simmons told Dylan Ratigan that "there's another leak, much bigger, 5 to 6 miles away" from the leaking riser and blowout preventer shown on the underwater cameras:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDGAoU1H2gM&feature=youtu.be



I have no idea whether or not Simmons is right. The government should immediately either debunk or admit his claim.

If accurate, the bigger leak could have been caused by the destruction of the well casing when the oil rig exploded. That is Simmons' theory.

Or it could be caused by a natural oil seep, although the odds of a seep of that size occurring right around the time of the Deep Horizon disaster is nearly zero.

There is another possibility.

It is well-known that there were previous accidents at the Deepwater Horizon rig. For example, as AP notes:

From 2000 to 2010, the Coast Guard issued six enforcement warnings and handed down one civil penalty and a notice of violation to Deepwater Horizon, agency records show.
On 18 different occasions during that period the Coast Guard cited the vessel for an "acknowledged pollution source."

It is therefore possible that there has been another ongoing leak which BP has tried to cover up.


http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/prominent-oil-industry-insider-theres.html

[MNeagle]

I don't think we'll ever know the true story on this disaster.

[sunshine05]

It makes me sick to my stomach. :(

[Cebu_4_2]

it just gets worse, so all this fuss was over a "little" leak and not what's causing the huge plumes.

[DMac]

From a CNN Twitter account:

http://twitter.com/LisaDCNN/statuses/14862448752

#OilSpill more: BP says it stopped pumping mud into well 16 hours ago, but will pump again soon. Waited until end of business day to tell us

_______________________________________


From a comment on TOD (http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6516#comments_top):


Top Kill Attempt No 1 failed last night....they pumped 30000 bbl of kill mud in 10 hrs ......thats 50 bbl per min ....or 2100 gal per min .....and if they really had to go upto 2100 gal per min to jam the mud downhole that means they are loosing a lot of kill fluid through the leaks and not enough is making its way downhole or they are loosing ti all in the formation

Call me a cynic but I don't have much faith in this upcoming 2nd attempt.

[Large Sarge]

Thursday, May 27, 2010
Prominent Oil Industry Insider: "There's Another Leak, Much Bigger, 5 to 6 Miles Away"


Matt Simmons was an energy adviser to President George W. Bush, is an adviser to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, and is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. Simmon is chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, an investment bank catering to oil companies.

Simmons told Dylan Ratigan that "there's another leak, much bigger, 5 to 6 miles away" from the leaking riser and blowout preventer shown on the underwater cameras:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDGAoU1H2gM&feature=youtu.be



I have no idea whether or not Simmons is right. The government should immediately either debunk or admit his claim.

If accurate, the bigger leak could have been caused by the destruction of the well casing when the oil rig exploded. That is Simmons' theory.

Or it could be caused by a natural oil seep, although the odds of a seep of that size occurring right around the time of the Deep Horizon disaster is nearly zero.

There is another possibility.

It is well-known that there were previous accidents at the Deepwater Horizon rig. For example, as AP notes:

From 2000 to 2010, the Coast Guard issued six enforcement warnings and handed down one civil penalty and a notice of violation to Deepwater Horizon, agency records show.
On 18 different occasions during that period the Coast Guard cited the vessel for an "acknowledged pollution source."

It is therefore possible that there has been another ongoing leak which BP has tried to cover up.


http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/prominent-oil-industry-insider-theres.html



that video is pretty frightening

and they both agree "use an explosive to close the pipeline down"

[keehah]

Waited until end of business day to tell us


BP plc (BP) Stock Surges As "Top Kill" Works (http://www.creditcardoutlaw.com/my-blog/2010/05/bp-plc-bp-stock-surges-as-top-kill-works.html)
Breaking News Alert: The Coast Guard admiral has reportedly said that BP plc (BP) is seeing some success with its "top kill" procedure to shut down the leaking oil well, and that everything is going as planned.

Predictably, the company's stock surged in trading today, now at $45.46 per share (7.19% gain).

[mamboni]

I don't believe this mud injection method has a chance of succeeding in closing this oil leak. This leak is akin to a hole in an artery with blood spurting out uder great pressure. There are only two ways to stop the bleeding. One is by applying external compression with an occlusive bandage with pressure greater than that of systolic pressure; the bandage must be held in place until the blood clots at the opening and organizes. The second method, one which has recently become available to trauma surgeons who deal with ruptured aortic bleeds, utilizes a pad pretreated with thrombin, nature's most powerful clotting agent. The thrombin clots the blood on contact - the thrombin-soaked pad adhering to the aortic puncture site like instant superglue.

How does one clot crude oil? Maybe they should inject liquid nitrogen into the opening?

[Mouse]

Success with catastrophic failure.

Does anyone know how to find inside trades on BP and the other companies involved today? I bet there were some executives dumping shares......

[mick silver]

oil is coming out ... what is taken it place ? i never thought of this but something has to be going back in some were

[Terry853]

Now just as a dumb hick safety hand you folks should know that the casing has washed out way below the surface of the sea floor.That oil and especially the nat gas are continuing to wash as in eat away the steel pipe for its whole length. This ain't over..

[Ponce]

From Titan........Nobody will know the official number and the reverberation will be felt for the rest of our lifetime.

Like I said before........"It will not happen in a day or two or even in a year or two but over a long period of time".

Only thing that I am now waiting for is for a coat and tie to tell me that I was right about the number of people that will die over this.

[Dave Thomas]

I think folks are forgetting about the tremendous pressures we're dealing with. Specifically in regard to pumping 1400 bbls of mud down 5000 ft of pipe.

Sure it seems like a tiny tiny amount, but can you imagine cramming such a dense fluid through a cocktail sized straw through 5000 ft of pipe against god knows how much pressure coming out of the ground at that depth?

Take a look at the flow rate of that spill. 20 gallons a second down at a depth of 5000 ft with a pressure akin to about oh about 166 atmospheres. So yeah it sounds slow, but they are doing it. At this point we can only speculate that they accumulate enough mass and pressure to overcome the amount of junk coming out of the earth.

It's a battle starring the pressure of the earth 18,000 ft down against a ship at sea level and mankind's greatest technology. Let's hope we win.

[bonaparte]

oil is coming out ... what is taken it place ? i never thought of this but something has to be going back in some were


The oil is under pressure, compressed under the earth. Sort of the same thing as the water in a super soaker. The oil is leaking because it is under so much pressure, and it now has an escape route through the pipe BP installed.

[Quixote2]

Heard on TV that the junk shot has been declared a failure also. Back to the drawing board with possibly even more dense mud for the next attempt.