Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

[NOOB]

Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

While expected to remain broadly supported for the rest of the year, big banks do differ in their outlooks for gold, platinum and silver. pgm = Platinum Group Metals, basically platinum and palladium
Monday June, 14, 2010
LONDON (REUTERS)

Gold prices are expected to remain broadly supported in 2010 by ongoing concerns over elevated sovereign debt levels, with the low interest rate environment also seen as beneficial to the precious metal.

Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily after correcting sharply in May, with industrial demand for the autocatalyst materials seen rising as the broader economic environment improves.

Below are recent forecasts for gold XAU=, silver XAG=, platinum XPT= and palladium XPD= prices from major market watchers.

Gold prices were quoted at around $1,225 an ounce in afternoon trade on Monday, having reached a record high at $1,251.20 an ounce last week. Silver prices are currently near $18.50 an ounce, platinum near $1,550 and palladium near $450.
MORGAN STANLEY (JUNE 13)

* Morgan Stanley said it expects gold prices to average $1,159 an ounce in 2010, silver prices to average $17.48 and platinum prices to average $1,665.
* "We... continue to like the outlook (for precious metals) in the coming months amid low global interest rates and an unresolved eurozone debt turmoil," it said. "We expect prices to rise on a quarterly average basis for the rest of the year.
* Next year, it expects gold prices to dip to $1,125 an ounce, silver to average $17.28 and platinum to rise to $1,802.

SOCIETE GENERALE (JUNE 11)

* SocGen sees gold prices averaging $1,300 an ounce in the third quarter, rising to $1,350 in the last three months of the year. It expects silver to average $21 an ounce and $22 an ounce in the same periods.
* For the full year, it sees gold at an average $1,240 an ounce, rising to $1,425 in 2011. It expects silver to average $19.60 an ounce this year and $24 in 2011.
* "Gold and silver prices should continue to benefit from so-called safe-haven buying and inflation hedging," it said. "Inflation fears are likely to be persistent due to strong economic growth in emerging economies and on concerns that developed countries may be tempted to monetise some of their large amounts of sovereign debt."
* The bank expects platinum to average $1,640 an ounce in 2010, and palladium to average $515. Next year it sees platinum at $1,680 and palladium at $550.

DEUTSCHE BANK (JUNE 11)

* Deutsche Bank sees gold prices averaging $1,215 an ounce this year. In the third quarter it expects to see the metal at $1,200 an ounce, rising to $1,400 in the final quarter of 2010. In 2011, it sees gold at $1,450 an ounce.
* The bank expects silver to average $18.73 an ounce this year, rising to $22.00 in 2011. It sees platinum at $1,652 and palladium at $470 in 2010 as a whole, rising to $1,750 and $525 respectively in 2011.
* "Gold markets continue to perform well, reflecting, in our view, the uncertainties with respect to future global monetary conditions," it said in a note. "We also expect that the other precious metals, silver and platinum in particular, could also start to perform in-line or out-perform gold."

RBS GLOBAL BANKING & MARKETS (JUNE 11)

* RBS sees gold averaging $1,000 an ounce this year and $1,075 in 2011. That forecast rises to $1,200 in 2012 and $1,300 in 2013. It expects silver to average $15.50 this year, rising to $17.50 in 2011.
* The bank expects platinum to average $1,550 an ounce and palladium to average $450 an ounce in 2010, rising to $1,650 and $525 respectively in 2011.

BARCLAYS CAPITAL (JUNE 11)

* Barclays see gold prices at $1,215 an ounce in the third quarter of 2010, rising to $1,235 in the last three months of the year. In the same periods it sees silver at $18.50 an ounce and $18.80 an ounce respectively.
* "A hat trick compiled of China slowdown concerns, fears of sovereign debt contagion and flight-to-safety investor demand has created a gold-friendly environment, and prices have subsequently risen to a new high," it said.
"We believe motives for buying gold remain intact for now and that investor appetite should drive prices higher."
* In the full year 2010, the bank sees gold at $1,166 an ounce, silver at $17.80, platinum at $1,643 and palladium at $470. Next year it sees the metals at $1,010, $14.30, $1,660 and $480 an ounce respectively.

Dates are those on which research notes containing the forecasts quoted were released by the organisations involved, and do not necessarily correspond to the date the original forecast was made.

[Trinity]

Aren't all these banks on some sort of welfare or financial aid?

[NOOB]

Yes so they are bullish on gold hahahahaa.

[Trinity]

Good point NOOB.

[Steal]

Morgan Stanley>* Next year, it expects gold prices to dip to $1,125 an ounce, silver to average $17.28 and platinum to rise to $1,802.

So, I guess they are counting on a full recovery? With a serious boom to the auto industry?

[Grand Master Melon]

Interesting and nice read. Most of the clowns should be out of business though so I'm not really sure what to make of their statements.

[Glass]

so Gold to $1400 and Silver to $22?

Might dig around and see what they were saying about gold in 2008. If I recall it was quite dire at the time. All those financial planners trying to save me from making a mistake with real money.

[JohnQPublic]

Let's sticky and revisit at the end of the year. :)

[uranian]

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_W3As3H4OZ5k/SrFKgWMsRQI/AAAAAAAAASA/nkoVEJlx05g/s400/buzz-lightyear.jpg

[gunDriller]

Morgan Stanley had enough foresight to buy $6 or $7 billion in SF real estate in 2007.

subsequently sold for a loss.

i could have told them it was a bad investment.

maybe i should apply for a consulting position.

[NOOB]

Merrill Lynch forecasts further upside for gold, silver prices for 2010-2012

Merrill Lynch upgrades gold and silver price forecasts, based on investor demand, central bank buying, and inflationary risks.
Dorothy Kosich
June 22, 2010
www.mineweb.com
RENO, NV -

Merrill Lynch metals analysts maintain gold will hit a US$1,500 per ounce target by the end of next year as investor demand pushes gold prices higher.

In research published Monday, analysts Michael Widmer, Francisco Blanch, and Alex Tonks are predicting average gold price forecasts of US$1,200/oz this year, $1,350/oz in 2011, and $1,400/oz in 2012, up from $1110/oz, $1179/oz and $1109/oz. respectively.

"We also believe that silver has further upside and see prices averaging $18/oz, $20.25/oz and $21/oz in 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively," they forecast.

"Our positive view on gold and silver prices is heavily influenced by the current macroeconomic environment and we believe that the following three developments will have a significant impact on these metals:

* "Central banks have eased monetary policy reflected in sharp rises of money supply;
* "Government debt has soared to make up for the private sector consumption short-fall;
* "Potential GDP growth rates have come under pressure."

In their latest analysis, Merrill Lynch noted, "ETFs have been a decent proxy for the strength of retail investor demand and these vehicles have seen substantial inflows during the past years." Recent data has shown that investors have once again started to increase their ETF holdings.

"It is also worth noting that investment demand in emerging markets like China has remained at very high levels," the analysts said. "This is partially influenced by growing real incomes, the launch of gold investment products and some apprehension over the value of other investment alternatives, such as equity and property."

"The importance of investors for the gold market will not change significantly in the coming years, in our view. Hence, we believe that a substantial part of marginal gold demand will continue to emanate from these market participants."

The analysts also suggested the economic environment is bullish for gold as loose monetary policy tends to attract investors into gold. They asserted that concerns over inflation "could bring new buyers into the gold market in the medium-term."

Meanwhile, although deflation is not normally viewed as bullish for gold, "we believe that the metal could rise on the back of it in the coming quarters," they advised.

"Keeping in mind that recent rises in gold prices were almost exclusively driven by concerns over sovereign debt in the Eurozone, we especially believe that challenges to reduce public liabilities should bring new buyers into the gold market in the coming quarters," they added. "There is also a risk that government may ultimately try to inflate debt away, which should attract gold buyers, too."

Merrill Lynch-Australia analysts Stephen Gorenstein and Anthony Kuo said Tuesday that they believe continued macro uncertainty will drive investor demand for gold.

"We believe central banks may be net buyers of gold given concerns over valuations of their securities in their portfolios," they suggested.

[Trinity]

Silver gets no respect. 21 dollars in 2012?

[1970 silver art]

I am going to stick with my predictions of silver finishing at $23 (or more) on December 31, 2010 and gold finishing at $1450 (or more) on December 31, 2010. Just my gut feeling speaking to me. ;D

[Trinity]

My aunt Jesse and I remember well your "gut feelings" Josey.

Recent artist's rendering of my aunt Jesse.

[1970 silver art]

My aunt Jesse and I remember well your "gut feelings" Josey.

Recent artist's rendering of my aunt Jesse.






She looks very mean to me. I hope that your aunt Jesse is not too upset with me. I have blown a few gut feeling predictions in the past but I think that I will be right on this one. My gut says so. ;D

[gunDriller]

I am going to stick with my predictions of silver finishing at $23 (or more) on December 31, 2010 and gold finishing at $1450 (or more) on December 31, 2010. Just my gut feeling speaking to me. ;D

i still think those are good numbers.

but given that we are dealing with highly manipulated markets i'm not sure what to count on except volatility.

[1970 silver art]

I am going to stick with my predictions of silver finishing at $23 (or more) on December 31, 2010 and gold finishing at $1450 (or more) on December 31, 2010. Just my gut feeling speaking to me. ;D

i still think those are good numbers.

but given that we are dealing with highly manipulated markets i'm not sure what to count on except volatility.


That is true gundriller. While IMO they are gradually losing control over gold and silver, The manipulators can still basically do what they want with the gold and silver markets. If the manipulators want to bring the prices down by a lot, then they can probably do so with their naked short selling. As long as JPM and others can still naked short sell gold and silver, then both of those metals will still be held hostage by these organizations. They will lose complete control eventually IMO but the only problem is that I do not know when eventually will come. The long term negative fundamentals of the dollar and the long term negative fundamentals of the financial state of the U.S. Gov't (i.e. massive Federal deficits and rapidly increasing national debt) will eventually overwhelm the manipulators and gold and silver will break free and start to go way up while the U.S. dollar will continue to go down.

[gunDriller]

That is true gundriller. While IMO they are gradually losing control over gold and silver, The manipulators can still basically do what they want with the gold and silver markets. If the manipulators want to bring the prices down by a lot, then they can probably do so with their naked short selling. As long as JPM and others can still naked short sell gold and silver, then both of those metals will still be held hostage by these organizations. They will lose complete control eventually IMO but the only problem is that I do not know when eventually will come. The long term negative fundamentals of the dollar and the long term negative fundamentals of the financial state of the U.S. Gov't (i.e. massive Federal deficits and rapidly increasing national debt) will eventually overwhelm the manipulators and gold and silver will break free and start to go way up while the U.S. dollar will continue to go down.


I still don't understand why no-one calls the bluff. As it was described in the original webcast with Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas, the other side of the trade that the market manipulators are playing is a guaranteed money-maker - until JPMorgan defaults, if JPMorgan is unable to back their short positions with physical.

They way they talk of it in the webcast ("billions, trillions"), it sounds like you would need $100 billion to $500 billion to take the other side (long silver & gold, short dollars) of the JP Morgan trade (short silver & gold, long dollars).


With new investment vehicles like the Sprott Physical Trusts, it seems like more investors are learning to demand physical.

And from Harvey Organ's blog, it sounds like Comex' bullshit is beginning to break under its weight.

I guess when it does break, I will be surprised that it took so long.


Perhaps there have been similar instances in the past.

I guess all those central bank gold sales, which are basically bank bail-outs (as well as an opportunity for the Chosen Ones to load up on gold cheap), of the past, including the bail-out of LTCM (who had a 400 ton naked short gold position), are examples. The bank with the short has a problem, and then the central bank bails them out with some cheap gold.

But that only works for so long. As far as I can tell, the central banks are running out of gold to bail crooks out with.

[1970 silver art]

That is true gundriller. While IMO they are gradually losing control over gold and silver, The manipulators can still basically do what they want with the gold and silver markets. If the manipulators want to bring the prices down by a lot, then they can probably do so with their naked short selling. As long as JPM and others can still naked short sell gold and silver, then both of those metals will still be held hostage by these organizations. They will lose complete control eventually IMO but the only problem is that I do not know when eventually will come. The long term negative fundamentals of the dollar and the long term negative fundamentals of the financial state of the U.S. Gov't (i.e. massive Federal deficits and rapidly increasing national debt) will eventually overwhelm the manipulators and gold and silver will break free and start to go way up while the U.S. dollar will continue to go down.


I still don't understand why no-one calls the bluff. As it was described in the original webcast with Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas, the other side of the trade that the market manipulators are playing is a guaranteed money-maker - until JPMorgan defaults, if JPMorgan is unable to back their short positions with physical.

They way they talk of it in the webcast ("billions, trillions"), it sounds like you would need $100 billion to $500 billion to take the other side (long silver & gold, short dollars) of the JP Morgan trade (short silver & gold, long dollars).


With new investment vehicles like the Sprott Physical Trusts, it seems like more investors are learning to demand physical.

And from Harvey Organ's blog, it sounds like Comex' bullsh*t is beginning to break under its weight.

I guess when it does break, I will be surprised that it took so long.


Perhaps there have been similar instances in the past.

I guess all those central bank gold sales, which are basically bank bail-outs (as well as an opportunity for the Chosen Ones to load up on gold cheap), of the past, including the bail-out of LTCM (who had a 400 ton naked short gold position), are examples. The bank with the short has a problem, and then the central bank bails them out with some cheap gold.

But that only works for so long. As far as I can tell, the central banks are running out of gold to bail crooks out with.


Correct me if I am wrong here but if every single person that held a COMEX gold contract and every single person that held a COMEX silver contract decided to demand physical gold and physical silver respectively, then would that not call the bluff and make people realize that they did not have the gold and silver that. Like you said the central banks more than likely do not have enough physical to bail out everybody. It seems to me that with all of that naked short selling that has been going on that it would not take a lot of people demanding physical delivery break COMEX. Maybe I am wrong on that and feel free to correct me on this if I am wrong. This is a hypothetical situation that I was creating in my mind and I know that not everybody holding a COMEX contract will demand physical.

[uranian]

interesting chart (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jclark092110.html) of gold's spikes when looked at on annual chart:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/images/jclark092110a.gif


You can see there haven't been that many large price advances, about one annually until last year. You'll also notice the biggest "surge" this year is comparatively small. In fact, you have to go back to mid-2001 to find one that didn't advance at least 20%. Meaning, we may very well be in for a bigger surge yet this year.

The average of all surges in the gold price since 2001 is 23.5%. If we hit the average, gold would spike to $1,428 in the current run-up. Note that I measured from the bottom of the surges, not the breakout point; the bottom I used in our case was $1,157 on July 28.

[NOOB]

So far "SocGen sees gold prices averaging $1,300 an ounce in the third quarter, rising to $1,350 in the last three months of the year. It expects silver to average $21 an ounce and $22 an ounce in the same periods." Socgen is the winner in the prediction game.

[lrodgers]

Ore resources and deposits are almost near depletion due to over-harvesting -- including gold and silver.

Lisa Rodgers
Email: lrodgers@goldbuyersofusa.com
Website: www.goldbuyersofusa.com

[osoab]

Ore resources and deposits are almost near depletion due to over-harvesting -- including gold and silver.

Lisa Rodgers
Email: lrodgers@goldbuyersofusa.com
Website: www.goldbuyersofusa.com


As seen on TeeVee?


I have one pic for you.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS-fGMSJY6Jhpv0mTjprGNzXtrhnw7LS1udhshCXfEmTxQKpxntOe TadRY

[lrodgers]

Sorry, I'm new to this. Why do you think that is Spam? I used to invest in junior mining companies but it's too high risk for me anymore due to said depletion. That is part of the reason prices are going up, and will continue to go up for the foreseeable future.

Lisa

[Sparky]

BARCLAYS CAPITAL (JUNE 11)
...
* In the full year 2010, the bank sees gold at $1,166 an ounce, silver at $17.80, platinum at $1,643 and palladium at $470. Next year it sees the metals at $1,010, $14.30, $1,660 and $480 an ounce respectively.
...

Average price so far in 2011 is $32.60. So they're currently off by 128%, and losing ground every day.

[Joe King]

They must've been hoping in one hand and sh.....well, you know what they were doing in the other one. lol

[uranian]

http://content.edgar-online.com/edgar_conv_img/2011/01/05/0000950123-11-000793_B84002A2B8271258.GIF

The monetary base (also base money, money base, M0, high-powered money, reserve money, or, in the UK, narrow money) is a term relating to the money supply, the amount of money in the economy. The monetary base is highly liquid money that consists of coins, paper money (both as bank vault cash and as currency circulating in the public), and commercial banks' reserves with the central bank. Base money can be described as the most acceptable (or liquid) form of final payment.

that's from wiki. it's a good example of how insane the monetary system is, the fact that definitions of money are so abstruse; a result i think of the fact that most of the "money" doesn't actually exist. i read somewhere recently that commercial banks globally are at something like 20 times leverage on average, so something like 95% of the "money" is in the form of electrons. truly, a masterfully played con game, to get the whole world to believe something so ethereal.

[ronTsilver]

This is it kiddies!
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/19_Sinclair_-_The_US_Will_Be_Cyprused_%26_We_Will_See_%2450%2C0 00_Gold.html

[Shami-Amourae]

This is it kiddies!
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/19_Sinclair_-_The_US_Will_Be_Cyprused_%26_We_Will_See_%2450%2C0 00_Gold.html


Sinclair is a Precious Metals Expert. He's wrong only 99% of the time. He's an industry legend!

[Plastic]

This is it kiddies!
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/19_Sinclair_-_The_US_Will_Be_Cyprused_%26_We_Will_See_%2450%2C0 00_Gold.html


Frightening idea tbh.

May everyone guide their boats to the deepest of waters.... As usual. :P

[gunDriller]

Frightening idea tbh.

May everyone guide their boats to the deepest of waters.... As usual. :P

and give every AGE a life vest.

personally, i like the 1/10 AGE in the Ping Pong ball format. as long as it floats.

[Plastic]

and give every AGE a life vest.

personally, i like the 1/10 AGE in the Ping Pong ball format. as long as it floats.



Life vests!?!?! We don't need no stinking life vests!! *hoists a cup of coffee in salute*

[Luriya]

I think the price fluctuates too far to have an idea. I never really saw gold move like you may have an idea with stocks. But that's just my two....gold cents :)

[Bull Bear]

Now gold relative to silver gives mixed message. Will be waiting for new silver lows relative to gold in order to make a pair trade.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3976314-gold-silver-ratio-late

[Neuro]

and give every AGE a life vest.

personally, i like the 1/10 AGE in the Ping Pong ball format. as long as it floats.

Fill them up with Helium and they may even float in air, probably would need a volume of about 1/2 a gallon sphere to float in air... ;D

[Luriya]

Very true and nicely researched!
Now is also a great time to bite my ass.

[Joshua01]

Very true and nicely researched!
Now is also a great time to sell gold in nyc (http://www.luriya.com/page/sell-gold).

Fucking spammer!!!

[Luriya]

...

[DohmenCR]

What’s our price target for gold in the near-term and long-term? We give our forecasts and explain our reasons here: http://bit.ly/2o781qP

[ximmy]

What’s our price target for gold in the near-term and long-term? We give our forecasts and explain our reasons here: http://bit.ly/2o781qP


http://i.imgur.com/LQcGwWU.gif

[cheka.]

imo the world is closer to a big war than any time in my adult life. gold SHOULD be going higher at a rapid clip

[Harryjalk]

Interesting thread.
Nice read.
Most of the people don't know about this which you mentioned in this thread.
It is really helpful to me.

[Neuro]

All PM's prices are going to the moon! Time to stock up on PMs ASAP!!

Did you timetravel from 2007?

[madfranks]

Just watch... Had to take advantage of the huge dip on friday and bought a bunch of Silver eagles from Bullion ExchangesPlease no more links to bullion exchange, or I'll have to ban you.

[Neuro]

How will this trade war effect all precious metals prices? I thought it would make them go up but i'd like to hear what other people have to say!

When it becomes an economical crisis sure

[Jewboo]

Let's sticky and revisit at the end of the year. :)





















https://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1440262350543.gif

[Neuro]

https://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1440262350543.gif

That was more than 8 years ago... Anyone who have seen JQP since? He may have died...

[monty]

A 30 page .pdf on Silver Guesswork & Silver Proof ~ May 2019

http://nosilvernationalization.org/226-519.pdf

[Jewboo]

imo the world is closer to a big war than any time in my adult life. Gold SHOULD be going higher at a rapid clip
2017





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndshbH3qZ6Y
2012

:)

[woodman]

Not sure where to put this, but this thread looks as good as any. Here is an interesting article showing a very close relationship of the price of gold, tracking in tandem with an inverted yield for TIPS (Ten Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). Fascinating:

Why The Gold Price Is Sinking | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-gold-price-sinking)

[woodman]

Good interview with maguire:

Russia sanctions hit physical gold and silver supply | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-03-11/russia-sanctions-hit-physical-gold-and-silver-supply)