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View Full Version : No way to stop it, end game in sight



EE_
16th June 2010, 01:14 PM
There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.
There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.

If you have been watching the live feed cams you may have noticed that some of the ROVs are using an inclinometer...and inclinometer is an instrument that measures "Incline" or tilt. The BOP is not supposed to be tilting...and after the riser clip off operation it has begun to...

This is not the only problem that occurs due to erosion of the outer area of the well casings. The way a well casing assembly functions it that it is an assembly of different sized "tubes" that decrease in size as they go down. These tubes have a connection to each other that is not unlike a click or snap together locking action. After a certain length is assembled they are cemented around the ouside to the earth that the more rough drill hole is bored through in the well making process. A very well put together and simply explained process of "How to drill a deep water oil well" is available here:
http://www.treesfullofmoney.com/?p=1610

The well bore casings rely on the support that is created by the cementing phase of well construction. Just like if you have many hands holding a pipe up you could put some weight on the top and the many hands could hold the pipe and the weight on top easily...but if there were no hands gripping and holding the pipe?...all the weight must be held up by the pipe alone. The series of connections between the sections of casings are not designed to hold up the immense weight of the BOP without all the "hands" that the cementing provides and they will eventually buckle and fail when stressed beyond their design limits.

These are clear and present dangers to the battered subsea safety structure (bop and lmrp) which is the only loose cork on this well we have left. The immediate (first 1,000 feet) of well structure that remains is now also undoubtedly compromised. However.....as bad as that is?...it is far from the only possible problems with this very problematic well. There were ongoing troubles with the entire process during the drilling of this well. There were also many comprises made by BP IMO which may have resulted in an overall weakened structure of the entire well system all the way to the bottom plug which is over 12,000 feet deep. Problems with the cementing procedure which was done by Haliburton and was deemed as “was against our best practices.” by a Haliburton employee on April 1st weeks before the well blew out. There is much more and I won't go into detail right now concerning the lower end of the well and the troubles encountered during the whole creation of this well and earlier "Well control" situations that were revieled in various internal BP e-mails. I will add several links to those documents and quotes from them below and for now, address the issues concerning the upper portion of the well and the region of the sea floor.

What is likely to happen now?

Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...

We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.
We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...
and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....

Reference materials:

On April 1, a job log written by a Halliburton employee, Marvin Volek, warns that BP’s use of cement “was
against our best practices.”

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

oldmansmith
16th June 2010, 01:23 PM
Well, that was one cheerful read. AMF YO YO (Adios Mother F#4@%6, Your On Your Own)

EE_
16th June 2010, 01:42 PM
What's bizarre, is how the market people are acting like everything is alright and a recover is still underway?
The biggest disaster in history is unfolding and so is an epic market crash.

Twisted Titan
16th June 2010, 01:42 PM
If this is what they allow the public to know

Can you imagine how bad the situation really is???

Get a extra can of soup and ammo.

It certinley cant hurt at this point.


T

DMac
16th June 2010, 01:47 PM
What's bizarre, is how the market people are acting like everything is alright and a recover is still underway?
The biggest disaster in history is unfolding and so is an epic market crash.



The HFT algo's won't stop the melt up until "they" decide to pull the plug. There is NO VOLUME in the markets!!

uranian
16th June 2010, 01:53 PM
i was in an esso garage yesterday and asked the guy there if they'd seen any increase in business since what BP had done, given that there's talk of boycotts. his response, what've BP done?

Ponce
16th June 2010, 02:09 PM
LOL Uranian..........good one.

Anyway..........you people are still listening to those idiots out there? come on now, you have your own live in idiot right here, hummmmmm say what ???

I have been telling you from the beginning what is going to happen and I get no comments but let some idiot tell you something AFTER THE FACTS and you all sound really surprised........and wait till the oil reaches the shores of other lands and they go, not after BP, after the US for damages.

osoab
16th June 2010, 04:57 PM
Read the first post of this thread. The poster on TOD used this post.

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1097505/pg1

I have been following this guys remarks from the beginning.

Even with a little doom mixed in, he/she has been spot on.

Bullion_Bob
16th June 2010, 07:52 PM
This type of oil spill has happened before in 1979.

i.e. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_spill#Largest_oil_spills

It really depends how big the deposit is, the faster it leaks, the sooner it will stop leaking.

EE_
16th June 2010, 08:22 PM
This type of oil spill has happened before in 1979.

i.e. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_spill#Largest_oil_spills

It really depends how big the deposit is, the faster it leaks, the sooner it will stop leaking.


I don't think this type has ever happened before.
I don't believe anyone has gone this deep before 1979.
As far as size...how's a 100 million barrels grab ya?
I think it can gush fast for 30 years.
Sorry to pee in your cereal. :-\

Anothercoilgun
16th June 2010, 08:24 PM
The size of an oil gusher is not the main problem. Its the effect. If one gallon leaked no one cares. But if that same one gallon fell onto a region that destroyed that last remaining resource of its kind on earth like some super material that could power the planet for 1,000 years, then that one gallon might as well be 1 billion gallons.

This oil is horrible because its effect an incredibly rich resource in the U.S. Might take decades to recover pending on the prevention efforts. This is the SHTF event I have been waiting for. 2011 will be hell on earth.

wildcard
16th June 2010, 08:41 PM
Oh come on people. We know they have clean up methods that will work. They are NOT using them. Why would you not take the cheap and easy method to clean up this shit? Because you want it to be a disaster.

EE_
16th June 2010, 08:54 PM
The size of an oil gusher is not the main problem. Its the effect. If one gallon leaked no one cares. But if that same one gallon fell onto a region that destroyed that last remaining resource of its kind on earth like some super material that could power the planet for 1,000 years, then that one gallon might as well be 1 billion gallons.

This oil is horrible because its effect an incredibly rich resource in the U.S. Might take decades to recover pending on the prevention efforts. This is the SHTF event I have been waiting for. 2011 will be hell on earth.

I concur, 2011 is the year it all comes down!

EE_
16th June 2010, 09:28 PM
The mass die off is beginning.

Sea creatures flee oil spill, gather near shore
By JAY REEVES, JOHN FLESHER and TAMARA LUSH (AP) – 8 hours ago

GULF SHORES, Ala. — Dolphins and sharks are showing up in surprisingly shallow water just off the Florida coast. Mullets, crabs, rays and small fish congregate by the thousands off an Alabama pier. Birds covered in oil are crawling deep into marshes, never to be seen again.

Marine scientists studying the effects of the BP disaster are seeing some strange — and troubling — phenomena.

Fish and other wildlife are fleeing the oil out in the Gulf and clustering in cleaner waters along the coast. But that is not the hopeful sign it might appear to be, researchers say.

The animals' presence close to shore means their usual habitat is badly polluted, and the crowding could result in mass die-offs as fish run out of oxygen. Also, the animals could easily get devoured by predators.

"A parallel would be: Why are the wildlife running to the edge of a forest on fire? There will be a lot of fish, sharks, turtles trying to get out of this water they detect is not suitable," said Larry Crowder, a Duke University marine biologist.

The nearly two-month-old oil spill has created an environmental catastrophe unparalleled in U.S. history as tens of millions of gallons of have spewed into the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem. Scientists are seeing some unusual things as they try to understand the effects on thousands of species of marine life.

Day by day, scientists in boats tally up dead birds, sea turtles and other animals, but the toll is surprisingly small given the size of the disaster. The latest figures show that 783 birds, 353 turtles and 41 mammals have died — numbers that pale in comparison to what happened after the Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska in 1989, when 250,000 birds and 2,800 otters are believed to have died.

Researchers say there are several reasons for the relatively small death toll: The vast nature of the spill means scientists are able to locate only a small fraction of the dead animals. Many will never be found after sinking to the bottom of the sea or getting scavenged by other marine life. And large numbers of birds are meeting their deaths deep in the Louisiana marshes where they seek refuge from the onslaught of oil.

"That is their understanding of how to protect themselves," said Doug Zimmer, spokesman for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

For nearly four hours Monday, a three-person crew with Greenpeace cruised past delicate islands and mangrove-dotted inlets in Barataria Bay off southern Louisiana. They saw dolphins by the dozen frolicking in the oily sheen and oil-tinged pelicans feeding their young. But they spotted no dead animals.

"I think part of the reason why we're not seeing more yet is that the impacts of this crisis are really just beginning," Greenpeace marine biologist John Hocevar said.

As for the fish, locals are seeing large schools hanging around piers where fishing has been banned; apparently the fish feel safer now that they are not being disturbed by fishermen.

Also, researchers believe fish are swimming closer to shore because the water is cleaner and more abundant in oxygen. Father out in the Gulf, researchers say, the spill is not only tainting the water with oil but also depleting oxygen levels.

A similar scenario occurs during "dead zone" periods — the time during summer months when oxygen becomes so depleted that fish race toward shore in large numbers. Sometimes, so many fish gather close to the shoreline off Mobile that locals rush to the beach with tubs and nets to reap the harvest.

But this latest shore migration could prove deadly.

First, more oil could eventually wash ashore and overwhelm the fish. They could also become trapped between the slick and the beach, leading to increased competition for oxygen in the water and causing them to die as they run out of air.

"Their ability to avoid it may be limited in the long term, especially if in near-shore refuges they're crowding in close to shore, and oil continues to come in. At some point they'll get trapped," Crowder said. "It could lead to die-offs."

The fish could also fall victim to predators such as sharks and seabirds. Already there have been increased shark sightings in shallow waters along the Gulf Coast.

The counting of dead wildlife in the Gulf is more than an academic exercise; the deaths will help determine how much BP pays in damages.

Roger Helm, chief of the Fish and Wildlife Service's contaminants division, said the government expects a battle with BP over the extent of the damage and has every incentive to be scientifically credible.

"Both sides go to their own corner and interpret the data the way they want," Helm said. "This is a legal process, and if we can't get an agreement we'll end up in court."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gEsS5h6C_l_Ndr7VMsRzKLN9qNdgD9GCIK304

wildcard
16th June 2010, 09:31 PM
Yeah, we've already been seeing birds around here in TN that we've never seen before. I'm sure a lot of critters are getting the hell out of dodge.

FunnyMoney
17th June 2010, 07:29 AM
The first kill shot attempt may not arrive for another 2 months and by then it could be too late. Even if the well pipe is still intact to make a kill shot possible, it might not work.

The fact that the US Federal govt didn't ask every petroleum producing nation on the planet to come and give advice and help when it was obvious from day one this was an event of biblical proportions says a lot right there. The sadistic elite are more than ready to play God.

the riot act
17th June 2010, 08:09 AM
The first kill shot attempt may not arrive for another 2 months and by then it could be too late. Even if the well pipe is still intact to make a kill shot possible, it might not work.

The fact that the US Federal govt didn't ask every petroleum producing nation on the planet to come and give advice and help when it was obvious from day one this was an event of biblical proportions says a lot right there. The sadistic elite are more than ready to play God.


It is called "The Jones Act" (http://www.shipguide.com/jones-act/) designed to protect the unions. Bomma could have recended it like Bush did for Katrina. As of today he hasn't made this decision, and is protecting the unions and BP.

k-os
17th June 2010, 10:32 AM
The first kill shot attempt may not arrive for another 2 months and by then it could be too late. Even if the well pipe is still intact to make a kill shot possible, it might not work.

The fact that the US Federal govt didn't ask every petroleum producing nation on the planet to come and give advice and help when it was obvious from day one this was an event of biblical proportions says a lot right there. The sadistic elite are more than ready to play God.


It is called "The Jones Act" (http://www.shipguide.com/jones-act/) designed to protect the unions. Bomma could have recended it like Bush did for Katrina. As of today he hasn't made this decision, and is protecting the unions and BP.


I don't read legalese, but if what you said is true that Obama didn't request help from other petroleum companies because he is protecting the unions and BP . . . this needs more exposure!

DMac
17th June 2010, 10:35 AM
The first kill shot attempt may not arrive for another 2 months and by then it could be too late. Even if the well pipe is still intact to make a kill shot possible, it might not work.

The fact that the US Federal govt didn't ask every petroleum producing nation on the planet to come and give advice and help when it was obvious from day one this was an event of biblical proportions says a lot right there. The sadistic elite are more than ready to play God.


It is called "The Jones Act" (http://www.shipguide.com/jones-act/) designed to protect the unions. Bomma could have recended it like Bush did for Katrina. As of today he hasn't made this decision, and is protecting the unions and BP.


I don't read legalese, but if what you said is true that Obama didn't request help from other petroleum companies because he is protecting the unions and BP . . . this needs more exposure!



BP and the Union Foot on Obama's Neck (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2524548/posts)

Uncle Salty
17th June 2010, 03:49 PM
LOL Uranian..........good one.

Anyway..........you people are still listening to those idiots out there? come on now, you have your own live in idiot right here, hummmmmm say what ???

I have been telling you from the beginning what is going to happen and I get no comments but let some idiot tell you something AFTER THE FACTS and you all sound really surprised........and wait till the oil reaches the shores of other lands and they go, not after BP, after the US for damages.


Have you been reading the webbots Ponce?

Ponce
17th June 2010, 04:03 PM
Webbots? not familiar with that terms..........what is it or what is it about?

old steel
17th June 2010, 05:20 PM
Webbots? not familiar with that terms..........what is it or what is it about?


Here you go Ponce.

http://www.halfpasthuman.com/

Here are some recent interviews with Clif High on Coast to Coast more at link.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUlSOGKyD30&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPQezLvkC4w&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMP_ye3y7LU&feature=related

Uncle Salty
17th June 2010, 06:37 PM
Webbots? not familiar with that terms..........what is it or what is it about?


Well played Mauer.