Twenty dollar Silver

[Trinity]

Question for the board.

Will Silver fetch twenty bucks an ounce when Gold hits 1,600 dollars? Or do we have to wait until Gold hits 2,000 bucks an ounce and then Silver hits twenty.

[Skirnir]

That would depends upon silver consumption, but my concern regarding silver is non-investment i.e. industrial demand.

[Steal]

kind of a silly question. If silver is still $20 or less when or if gold hits $1,600 I would be selling all my Au and buying silver at a firesale price of 80:1

[JohnQPublic]

I would not be surprised to see $20 silver this summer. Gold maybe pushing $1300. 2 cents.

[Skirnir]

Also, as we found out in 2008, Ag may hit $20, but it did not stay there. $20 as a plateau may come later.

[JohnQPublic]

Also, as we found out in 2008, Ag may hit $20, but it did not stay there. $20 as a plateau may come later.


Maybe. Great buying opportunity if it happens. But I would not depend on it this year. In 2008 the Chinese and the Europeans were not buying (openly at least) like now. GLD, SLV, PHYS, etc. were not increasing holdings exponentially (Of course a lot of this is paper gold/silver preteneding to be real, esp. GLD/SLV). Everyone is just starting to discover gold. If it does collapse briefly, I suspect it will get snapped up much faster than even 2008.

[Skirnir]

There is one way to find out whether it just hits $20 and gets whacked, but there is nothing stopping it from hitting $20. Seeing as Ag is below $20, buy and hold, sell the spike, and come back in when the technical send a buy signal ;D

[JohnQPublic]

There is one way to find out whether it just hits $20 and gets whacked, but there is nothing stopping it from hitting $20. Seeing as Ag is below $20, buy and hold, sell the spike, and come back in when the technical send a buy signal ;D


That could be smart. I tend to buy, but not sell! It may not be easy to replace, and the premiums could be so high as to be not worth it (as in 2008). If your playing funds, then its a different story.

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

100:1 ratio? I'll take that.

Silver is above $19 right now with gold $1250. $20 silver will be here sooner than we think.

All it takes is one piece of news, one slip up by TPTB.

[ximmy]

It's a good question... when the consumers can't get gold in their hands they will opt for silver.. then it should follow along for the ride.

[Trinity]

kind of a silly question.


Yeah I'm just kidding around, just getting antsy watching Gold make new highs and Silver still trades in the teens. I sure as hell hope if Gold is at 1,600 bucks Silver better be over 30 at least.

[gunDriller]

I would not be surprised to see $20 silver this summer. Gold maybe pushing $1300. 2 cents.


me neither. Silver's almost there. of course i'm writing this Friday PM, with silver in the $19's it could easily be at $20 after 1 or 2 days of trading, e.g. Tuesday.

gold has already de-coupled from the US stock market and silver is in the process of de-coupling. that's a sign of some major change, when people pull money out of the stock market & put it into gold - and silver. it's a little early to say that's been happening with silver, maybe somebody else can read the charts better than me and figure it out.

but with the markets being as highly leveraged as they are (paper-physical ratio), there is also much logic in physical de-coupling from paper (gold & silver). i.e., gold & silver both go up - and physical commands additional premiums.

i don't know what the Achilles heel of the system is. there was some talk in the Andrew Maguire webcast about an investor with deep pockets taking the opposite position to JPMorgan on silver. JPMorgan is short silver, long dollars. Maguire was talking about someone going long silver, short dollars, into the trillions - if JPMorgan's short position is truly naked. The result being a JPMorgan default, which could have some effect on the US government fiat money schemes.

these are titanic forces at work.

at this point, i think $20 silver is not only a very conservative price target for summer 2010 - i think it's also a bargain. i.e., if you buy silver @ $20 and it has some wierd volatile dip to $17 - the $20 silver is still a bargain.

[Trinity]

With Gold besting it's old 1980 high by half it is probably a shoe in that Silver will beat it's old 50 dollar high in 1980. JMHO

[JohnQPublic]

I would not be surprised to see $20 silver this summer. Gold maybe pushing $1300. 2 cents.


me neither. Silver's almost there. of course i'm writing this Friday PM, with silver in the $19's it could easily be at $20 after 1 or 2 days of trading, e.g. Tuesday.

gold has already de-coupled from the US stock market and silver is in the process of de-coupling. that's a sign of some major change, when people pull money out of the stock market & put it into gold - and silver. it's a little early to say that's been happening with silver, maybe somebody else can read the charts better than me and figure it out.

but with the markets being as highly leveraged as they are (paper-physical ratio), there is also much logic in physical de-coupling from paper (gold & silver). i.e., gold & silver both go up - and physical commands additional premiums.

i don't know what the Achilles heel of the system is. there was some talk in the Andrew Maguire webcast about an investor with deep pockets taking the opposite position to JPMorgan on silver. JPMorgan is short silver, long dollars. Maguire was talking about someone going long silver, short dollars, into the trillions - if JPMorgan's short position is truly naked. The result being a JPMorgan default, which could have some effect on the US government fiat money schemes.

these are titanic forces at work.

at this point, i think $20 silver is not only a very conservative price target for summer 2010 - i think it's also a bargain. i.e., if you buy silver @ $20 and it has some wierd volatile dip to $17 - the $20 silver is still a bargain.


I think Harvey Organ is expecting delivery problems on COMEX as early as the end of this month. If there are delivery problems, and it gets publicized, things could happen real fast. With Europe buying and China buying, JP Morgan (was Bear Stearns) got themselves dug in real deep. Things changed instantly in 2007, and when Bear Stearns went under, and JP Morgan bought them, they got stuck with the big leaky bag of poop. Of course .gov is supporting them, so who knows.

[gunDriller]

I think Harvey Organ is expecting delivery problems on COMEX as early as the end of this month. If there are delivery problems, and it gets publicized, things could happen real fast. With Europe buying and China buying, JP Morgan (was Bear Stearns) got themselves dug in real deep. Things changed instantly in 2007, and when Bear Stearns went under, and JP Morgan bought them, they got stuck with the big leaky bag of poop. Of course .gov is supporting them, so who knows.


i see a repeating theme.

in 1998, LTCM had a naked short gold position (400 tons) and they had to be bailed out.

i'm not sure how the naked shorts make money unless the .gov pays them some kind of fee for suppressing PM prices.

[JohnQPublic]

...i'm not sure how the naked shorts make money unless the .gov pays them some kind of fee for suppressing PM prices.


I'm thinking something like that may be going on. They will just empty Fort Knox if they have to (and it is not already empty).

[Saul Mine]

The gold/silver ratio is currently 65 and headed down. It should go below 50 (we hope). Silver has a cycle that would normally have carried it to $30 by now, but seems to be slowed somehow. That cycle peaks any time from January first to June last, so there is still a bit of time.

So we are looking for a GSR=50. With gold at $1250 silver has to go to $25. Or gold might go to $1350 and silver to $27. Or silver could stay at $20 and gold drop to $1000. I don't think any precious metal is going to drop for a while. As for possible rises, well, anything can happen and frequently does.

[Trinity]

I think with the Chinese revalue news Gold and Silver shoot up next week.

[Skirnir]

Let us remember that the gold-silver ratio is an independent variable, and correlation does not imply causality. What are the factors that have made gold outperform silver since July 2008 when the ratio started spiking?

[Trinity]

Gold outperformed because it is money and Silver is a precious commodity. Copper hasn't reached it's 2008 highs either. Nor other commodity metals.

[Gaillo]

Gold outperformed because it is money and Silver is a precious commodity. Copper hasn't reached it's 2008 highs either. Nor other commodity metals.


I think VERY soon, people will be re-thinking the "Silver as Commodity" paradigm.

[JohnQPublic]

Gold outperformed because it is money and Silver is a precious commodity. Copper hasn't reached it's 2008 highs either. Nor other commodity metals.


I think VERY soon, people will be re-thinking the "Silver as Commodity" paradigm.


I think they figured that out a long time ago!


http://weinterrupt.com/wp-content/uploads/3rd-1st_century_bc_ancient_silver_greek_coins.jpg