JohnQPublic
4th July 2010, 12:42 PM
CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT RECENT PREDICTIONS
OF IMPENDING SHORTAGES OF PETROLEUM
EVALUATED FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF
MODERN PETROLEUM SCIENCE. (http://www.gasresources.net/)
J. F. Kenney
Joint Institute of the Physics of the Earth
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow;
Gas Resources Corporation, Houston.
ABSTRACT: For almost a century, various predictions have been made that the human race is imminently going to run out of available petroleum. The passing of time has proven all those predictions to have been utterly wrong. It is pointed out here how all such predictions have depended fundamentally upon an archaic hypothesis from the 18th century that petroleum somehow (miraculously) evolves from biological detritus, and is accordingly limited in abundance. That hypothesis has been replaced during the past forty years by the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins which has established that petroleum is a primordial material erupted from great depth. Therefore, petroleum abundances are limited by little more than the quantities of its constituents as were incorporated into the Earth at the time of its formation; and its availability depends upon technological development and exploration competence.
“Rock oil originates as tiny bodies of animals buried in the sediments which, under the influence of increased temperature and pressure acting during an unimaginably long period of time, transform into rock oil [petroleum, or crude oil]â€
Academician Mikhailo V. Lomonosov, "Slovo o reshdenii metallov ot tryaseniya zemli," Proceedings of the Imperial Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, 1757.
“The overwhelming preponderance of geological evidence compels the conclusion that crude oil and natural petroleum gas have no intrinsic connection with biological matter originating near the surface of the Earth. They are primordial materials which have been erupted from great depths.â€
Academician Professor Vladimir B. Porfir’yev, senior petroleum exploration geologist for the U.S.S.R., at the All-Union Conference on Petroleum and Petroleum Geology, Moscow, 1956.
“Statistical thermodynamic analysis has established clearly that hydrocarbon molecules which comprise petroleum require very high pressures for their spontaneous formation, comparable to the pressures required for the same of diamond. In that sense, hydrocarbon molecules are the high-pressure polymorphs of the reduced carbon system as is diamond of elemental carbon. Any notion which might suggest that hydrocarbon molecules spontaneously evolve in the regimes of temperature and pressure characterized by the near-surface of the Earth, which are the regimes of methane creation and hydrocarbon destruction, does not even deserve consideration.â€
Professor Emmanuil B. Chekaliuk, at All-Union Conference on Petroleum and Petroleum Geology, Moscow, 1968.
“The eleven major and one giant oil and gas fields here described have been discovered in a region which had, forty years ago, been condemned as possessing no potential for petroleum production. The exploration for these fields was conducted entirely according to the perspective of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins. The drilling which resulted in these discoveries was extended purposely deep into the crystalline basement rock, and it is in that basement where the greatest part of the reserves exist. These reserves amount to at least 8,200M metric tons of recoverable oil and 100B cubic meters of recoverable gas, and are thereby comparable to those of the North Slope of Alaska. It is conservatively estimated that, when developed, these fields will provide approximately thirty percent of the energy needs of the industrial nation of Ukraine.â€
Professor Vladilen A. Krayushkin, Chairman of the Department of Petroleum Exploration, Institute of Geological Sciences, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Kiev, and leader of the project for the exploration of the northern flank of the Dnieper-Donets Basin, at the VII-th International Symposium on the Observation of the Continental Crust Through Drilling, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 1994.
The purpose of this article is to present a perspective with which the presently existing data of known petroleum reserves and production ought best to be evaluated. The particular subject of this article is the application to such evaluation of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, an extensive body of knowledge which has been developed and applied during the last forty years. Thus this article must be understood as one dealing with the context of certain statistical data involving the petroleum industry rather than one concerning with the detailed content of any part of that data. The specific data of the quantities of known recoverable petroleum presented by several recent writers will be taken in large part without comment. However, many of the conclusions drawn from such data, particularly such as purport to predict the future of available petroleum reserves and of the petroleum industry itself, will be weighed and rejected from the perspective of modern petroleum science.
Throughout the history of the petroleum industry, there have been written numerous articles or reports predicting an imminent demise of that industry all predicated upon assumptions that the supply of producible crude oil in the world was (supposedly) being rapidly depleted and would soon (therefore) be exhausted.(Campbell 1991; Fuller 1993; Campbell 1994; Campbell 1995) In short, the world was (if such were believed), “running out of oil.†Happily, all such predictions have, without a single exception, been proven wrong.
Contrarily, the statistics of the international petroleum industry establish that, far from diminishing, the net known recoverable reserves of petroleum have been growing steadily for the past fifty years. Those statistics show that, for every year since about 1946, the international petroleum industry has discovered at least five new tons of recoverable oil for every three which have been consumed. As Professor P. Odell has put the circumstance succinctly, instead of “running out of oil,†the human race by every measure seems to be “running into oilâ€.(Odell 1984; Odell 1991; Odell 1994)
The remarkable facts of such unrelieved errors for the predictions of available petroleum contrasted against those of its true availability demand explanation. One purpose of this paper is to provide such explanation. The explanation involves two parts, both of which obtain from an extensive body of scientific knowledge which peculiarly remains little known outside its country of origin. The first part of the explanation is simply forthcoming by pointing out the single, simple, but utterly wrong assumption upon which have been based all the “disaster†predictions connected with fantasized shortages of petroleum. The second part consists even more simply of pointing out how the measured statistics of known petroleum reserves are consistent with what should be expected in light of modern petroleum science.
The errors concerning the abundances of petroleum on Earth all obtain from a common, but fundamental, misunderstanding about petroleum itself. All the predictions about expected shortages of petroleum hang by a single, weak thread on a remnant, eighteenth-century notion which has been thoroughly discredited in this century: the hypothesis that petroleum might somehow originate from biological detritus in sediments near the surface of the Earth. That “biological hypothesis†was first published by the famous Russian scientist Mikhailo VasilÂ*yevich Lomonosov in the year 1757 and is quoted above. That notion of an origin of petroleum from biological material has occasioned numerous misnomers concerning petroleum as, for example, “fossil†fuel, and associated, misleading phrases like “vanishing resource.†Because the volume of biological matter on Earth is itself limited, the misunderstanding that petroleum might originate from such has given rise consequentially to a notion that petroleum should be similarly limited, and somehow in connection with the quantity of biogenic material observed in sediments.
The hypothesis that petroleum might somehow originate from biological detritus in sediments near the surface of the Earth is utterly wrong. It deserves note that Lomonosov himself never meant for that hypothesis to be taken as more than a reasonable suggestion, to be tested against further observation and laboratory experiment. The “biological hypothesis†of petroleum origins has been rejected in this century by scientific petroleum geologists because it is formidably inconsistent with the existing geological records “on the ground.†That hypothesis has been rejected also by physicists, chemists, and engineers because it violates fundamental physical law.
Lomonosov’s eighteenth-century hypothesis of a biogenic origin of petroleum has been replaced during the past forty years by the modern theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, an extensive and formidable body of scientific knowledge which has been developed in the former U.S.S.R., particularly in the countries Russia and Ukraine. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of petroleum has established that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which has been erupted into the crust of the Earth.
With the elimination of the error that petroleum might be some manifestation of transformed, but limited, biological matter originating on the surface of the Earth, the consequential errors connected with its supposed limits both of quantity and habitat vanish. Thus the errors of all the “doomsday†predictions of petroleum shortages, which have never subsequently occurred, are explained, - or, more simply, eliminated.
Because the explanation of the errors connected with the predictions about petroleum shortages obtains simply from the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, and because that theory is little known outside the former U.S.S.R., its subject deserves at least short mention.
The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is an extensive body of scientific knowledge covering the subjects of the chemical genesis of hydrocarbon molecules, the physical processes which occasion their terrestrial concentration, the dynamical processes of the movement of that material into geological reservoirs of petroleum, and the location and economic production of petroleum. As stated, the modern theory has determined that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which is transported at high pressure via “cold†eruptive processes into the crust of the Earth. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory is almost unique among what too often pass as “theories†in the field of geology (especially in the U.S.A.) in that it is based not only upon extensive geological observation but also upon rigorous, analytical, physical reasoning. Much of the modern Russian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum genesis developed from the sciences of chemistry and thermodynamics, and accordingly the modern theory has steadfastly held as a central tenet that the generation of hydrocarbons must conform to the general laws of chemical thermodynamics, - as must likewise all matter. With the exception of methane, the alkane of the lowest chemical potential of all hydrocarbons, and to a lesser extent ethene, the alkene of the lowest chemical potential of its homologous molecular series, petroleum has no intrinsic association with biological material. Methane is thermodynamically stable in the pressure and temperature regime of the near-surface crust of the Earth and accordingly can be generated there spontaneously, as is indeed observed for such phenomena as swamp gas or sewer gas. However, methane is practically the sole hydrocarbon molecule possessing such characteristic in that thermodynamic regime; almost all other reduced hydrocarbon molecules excepting only the lightest ones, are high pressure polymorphs of the hydrogen-carbon system. The genesis of heavier hydrocarbons occurs only in multi-kilobar regimes of high pressuresâ€*.
<CONTINUED>
OF IMPENDING SHORTAGES OF PETROLEUM
EVALUATED FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF
MODERN PETROLEUM SCIENCE. (http://www.gasresources.net/)
J. F. Kenney
Joint Institute of the Physics of the Earth
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow;
Gas Resources Corporation, Houston.
ABSTRACT: For almost a century, various predictions have been made that the human race is imminently going to run out of available petroleum. The passing of time has proven all those predictions to have been utterly wrong. It is pointed out here how all such predictions have depended fundamentally upon an archaic hypothesis from the 18th century that petroleum somehow (miraculously) evolves from biological detritus, and is accordingly limited in abundance. That hypothesis has been replaced during the past forty years by the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins which has established that petroleum is a primordial material erupted from great depth. Therefore, petroleum abundances are limited by little more than the quantities of its constituents as were incorporated into the Earth at the time of its formation; and its availability depends upon technological development and exploration competence.
“Rock oil originates as tiny bodies of animals buried in the sediments which, under the influence of increased temperature and pressure acting during an unimaginably long period of time, transform into rock oil [petroleum, or crude oil]â€
Academician Mikhailo V. Lomonosov, "Slovo o reshdenii metallov ot tryaseniya zemli," Proceedings of the Imperial Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, 1757.
“The overwhelming preponderance of geological evidence compels the conclusion that crude oil and natural petroleum gas have no intrinsic connection with biological matter originating near the surface of the Earth. They are primordial materials which have been erupted from great depths.â€
Academician Professor Vladimir B. Porfir’yev, senior petroleum exploration geologist for the U.S.S.R., at the All-Union Conference on Petroleum and Petroleum Geology, Moscow, 1956.
“Statistical thermodynamic analysis has established clearly that hydrocarbon molecules which comprise petroleum require very high pressures for their spontaneous formation, comparable to the pressures required for the same of diamond. In that sense, hydrocarbon molecules are the high-pressure polymorphs of the reduced carbon system as is diamond of elemental carbon. Any notion which might suggest that hydrocarbon molecules spontaneously evolve in the regimes of temperature and pressure characterized by the near-surface of the Earth, which are the regimes of methane creation and hydrocarbon destruction, does not even deserve consideration.â€
Professor Emmanuil B. Chekaliuk, at All-Union Conference on Petroleum and Petroleum Geology, Moscow, 1968.
“The eleven major and one giant oil and gas fields here described have been discovered in a region which had, forty years ago, been condemned as possessing no potential for petroleum production. The exploration for these fields was conducted entirely according to the perspective of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins. The drilling which resulted in these discoveries was extended purposely deep into the crystalline basement rock, and it is in that basement where the greatest part of the reserves exist. These reserves amount to at least 8,200M metric tons of recoverable oil and 100B cubic meters of recoverable gas, and are thereby comparable to those of the North Slope of Alaska. It is conservatively estimated that, when developed, these fields will provide approximately thirty percent of the energy needs of the industrial nation of Ukraine.â€
Professor Vladilen A. Krayushkin, Chairman of the Department of Petroleum Exploration, Institute of Geological Sciences, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Kiev, and leader of the project for the exploration of the northern flank of the Dnieper-Donets Basin, at the VII-th International Symposium on the Observation of the Continental Crust Through Drilling, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 1994.
The purpose of this article is to present a perspective with which the presently existing data of known petroleum reserves and production ought best to be evaluated. The particular subject of this article is the application to such evaluation of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, an extensive body of knowledge which has been developed and applied during the last forty years. Thus this article must be understood as one dealing with the context of certain statistical data involving the petroleum industry rather than one concerning with the detailed content of any part of that data. The specific data of the quantities of known recoverable petroleum presented by several recent writers will be taken in large part without comment. However, many of the conclusions drawn from such data, particularly such as purport to predict the future of available petroleum reserves and of the petroleum industry itself, will be weighed and rejected from the perspective of modern petroleum science.
Throughout the history of the petroleum industry, there have been written numerous articles or reports predicting an imminent demise of that industry all predicated upon assumptions that the supply of producible crude oil in the world was (supposedly) being rapidly depleted and would soon (therefore) be exhausted.(Campbell 1991; Fuller 1993; Campbell 1994; Campbell 1995) In short, the world was (if such were believed), “running out of oil.†Happily, all such predictions have, without a single exception, been proven wrong.
Contrarily, the statistics of the international petroleum industry establish that, far from diminishing, the net known recoverable reserves of petroleum have been growing steadily for the past fifty years. Those statistics show that, for every year since about 1946, the international petroleum industry has discovered at least five new tons of recoverable oil for every three which have been consumed. As Professor P. Odell has put the circumstance succinctly, instead of “running out of oil,†the human race by every measure seems to be “running into oilâ€.(Odell 1984; Odell 1991; Odell 1994)
The remarkable facts of such unrelieved errors for the predictions of available petroleum contrasted against those of its true availability demand explanation. One purpose of this paper is to provide such explanation. The explanation involves two parts, both of which obtain from an extensive body of scientific knowledge which peculiarly remains little known outside its country of origin. The first part of the explanation is simply forthcoming by pointing out the single, simple, but utterly wrong assumption upon which have been based all the “disaster†predictions connected with fantasized shortages of petroleum. The second part consists even more simply of pointing out how the measured statistics of known petroleum reserves are consistent with what should be expected in light of modern petroleum science.
The errors concerning the abundances of petroleum on Earth all obtain from a common, but fundamental, misunderstanding about petroleum itself. All the predictions about expected shortages of petroleum hang by a single, weak thread on a remnant, eighteenth-century notion which has been thoroughly discredited in this century: the hypothesis that petroleum might somehow originate from biological detritus in sediments near the surface of the Earth. That “biological hypothesis†was first published by the famous Russian scientist Mikhailo VasilÂ*yevich Lomonosov in the year 1757 and is quoted above. That notion of an origin of petroleum from biological material has occasioned numerous misnomers concerning petroleum as, for example, “fossil†fuel, and associated, misleading phrases like “vanishing resource.†Because the volume of biological matter on Earth is itself limited, the misunderstanding that petroleum might originate from such has given rise consequentially to a notion that petroleum should be similarly limited, and somehow in connection with the quantity of biogenic material observed in sediments.
The hypothesis that petroleum might somehow originate from biological detritus in sediments near the surface of the Earth is utterly wrong. It deserves note that Lomonosov himself never meant for that hypothesis to be taken as more than a reasonable suggestion, to be tested against further observation and laboratory experiment. The “biological hypothesis†of petroleum origins has been rejected in this century by scientific petroleum geologists because it is formidably inconsistent with the existing geological records “on the ground.†That hypothesis has been rejected also by physicists, chemists, and engineers because it violates fundamental physical law.
Lomonosov’s eighteenth-century hypothesis of a biogenic origin of petroleum has been replaced during the past forty years by the modern theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, an extensive and formidable body of scientific knowledge which has been developed in the former U.S.S.R., particularly in the countries Russia and Ukraine. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of petroleum has established that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which has been erupted into the crust of the Earth.
With the elimination of the error that petroleum might be some manifestation of transformed, but limited, biological matter originating on the surface of the Earth, the consequential errors connected with its supposed limits both of quantity and habitat vanish. Thus the errors of all the “doomsday†predictions of petroleum shortages, which have never subsequently occurred, are explained, - or, more simply, eliminated.
Because the explanation of the errors connected with the predictions about petroleum shortages obtains simply from the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, and because that theory is little known outside the former U.S.S.R., its subject deserves at least short mention.
The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is an extensive body of scientific knowledge covering the subjects of the chemical genesis of hydrocarbon molecules, the physical processes which occasion their terrestrial concentration, the dynamical processes of the movement of that material into geological reservoirs of petroleum, and the location and economic production of petroleum. As stated, the modern theory has determined that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which is transported at high pressure via “cold†eruptive processes into the crust of the Earth. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory is almost unique among what too often pass as “theories†in the field of geology (especially in the U.S.A.) in that it is based not only upon extensive geological observation but also upon rigorous, analytical, physical reasoning. Much of the modern Russian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum genesis developed from the sciences of chemistry and thermodynamics, and accordingly the modern theory has steadfastly held as a central tenet that the generation of hydrocarbons must conform to the general laws of chemical thermodynamics, - as must likewise all matter. With the exception of methane, the alkane of the lowest chemical potential of all hydrocarbons, and to a lesser extent ethene, the alkene of the lowest chemical potential of its homologous molecular series, petroleum has no intrinsic association with biological material. Methane is thermodynamically stable in the pressure and temperature regime of the near-surface crust of the Earth and accordingly can be generated there spontaneously, as is indeed observed for such phenomena as swamp gas or sewer gas. However, methane is practically the sole hydrocarbon molecule possessing such characteristic in that thermodynamic regime; almost all other reduced hydrocarbon molecules excepting only the lightest ones, are high pressure polymorphs of the hydrogen-carbon system. The genesis of heavier hydrocarbons occurs only in multi-kilobar regimes of high pressuresâ€*.
<CONTINUED>