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View Full Version : A reasonably accurate way of judging the daily release from the Macondo well



I am me, I am free
8th July 2010, 11:02 AM
I haven't heard much reference recently regarding the amount being vented daily from the Macondo well. I think we may have been de-sensitized to it.

When BP internally estimated the free flow of the Macondo well, they put it at around 100,000 barrels a day. I'm sure they based this on the size of the wellbore with the drill stem in it along with the pressure - this isn't that difficult to do relatively accurately.

Now consider this, the size of the fire subsequent to the initial blow-out and before the DWH sank -

http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/04/23/alg_oil_rig_explosion.jpg

I cannot readily find a current image of the scene, but no doubt just about everyone has seen a recent image of the scene over the Macondo well where they are burning off oil and gas from flares on at least two of the ships. Here's one (this image is apparently from mid-June, flares are larger now) -

http://www.chem.info/uploadedImages/CHEM/News/2010/06/ci6-15Burn.jpg?n=4327

I recently heard in the media that BP is burning off 8,000 barrels a day via flares on scene. Given the size of the two combined flares as a reference point, I'm guessing that the initial fire was at least 10-12 times larger than the flare fires, making the output of the Macondo well in the 80,000-100,000 barrel a day range.

Anyone else care to venture a guess by comparing the size of the flare fires to the initial fire on the DWH?

bellevuebully
8th July 2010, 11:05 AM
I prefer this method....

(official number) * (dishonesty factor) = actual number

or in this case...

5000bbls/day * 10 = 50 000 bbls/day

I am me, I am free
8th July 2010, 11:11 AM
I prefer this method....

(official number) * (dishonesty factor) = actual number

or in this case...

5000bbls/day * 10 = 50 000 bbls/day


I'm saying it's way more than 50,000 barrels a day, at least double that, based upon the size of the two flares burning 8,000 barrels a day in contrast to the original fire.

Large Sarge
8th July 2010, 11:17 AM
Keehah found some BP document online, I think it was the matt simmons "casing is gone, hole in the gulf" thread.

He showed the files, BP's own estimate was 162,000 Barrels per day

bellevuebully
8th July 2010, 12:49 PM
I prefer this method....

(official number) * (dishonesty factor) = actual number

or in this case...

5000bbls/day * 10 = 50 000 bbls/day


I'm saying it's way more than 50,000 barrels a day, at least double that, based upon the size of the two flares burning 8,000 barrels a day in contrast to the original fire.


I didn't mean to marginalize your efforts. I was just being facetious. I agree wholly with the premise that it is a lot more than they are admitting to.

ximmy
8th July 2010, 01:14 PM
80 days @ 50,000 barrels a day.

http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s222/chrisneros/gulfships-2.jpg

Silver Rocket Bitches!
8th July 2010, 04:08 PM
And since the cold waters are keeping the oil submerged, what we see on the surface is but a fraction. It's anyone's guess to how much oil has actually gushed out of that hole in the Earth..

I am me, I am free
9th July 2010, 07:26 PM
If this is what roughly 8,000 barrels/day being burned off on these two flares looks like -

http://www.seashepherd.org/images/stories/news/2010/news_100701_1_1_Deepwater_Horizon1.jpg

...then realistically how much is being released a day if this is what the full bore burn looks like??

http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/04/23/alg_oil_rig_explosion.jpg

That shinin' ya on 60,000 barrels/day may be less than half of what is actually being released.