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Twisted Titan
11th July 2010, 03:07 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-07/u-s-shopping-center-vacancies-approach-record-high-reis-says.html


U.S. Shopping Center Vacancies Approach Record High


Vacancies at U.S. neighborhood and community shopping centers moved closer to the highest on record in the second quarter amid signs the economic recovery is losing steam and consumer confidence remains subdued, Reis Inc. said.

The vacancy rate at shopping centers rose to 10.9 percent from 10 percent a year earlier and 10.8 percent in the first quarter, the New York-based real estate research firm said in a report today. It was the highest since 1991’s 11 percent. The record for shopping center vacancies since Reis began tracking the data 30 years ago was 11.1 percent in 1990.

“There are really very few reasons to believe that performance deterioration won’t continue for another 18 to 24 months for retail properties, although there are some signs that the pace of decline is moderating,” Victor Calanog, director of research, said in the report.

Out of 80 cities, 11 posted increases in rents paid by tenants. “Compared to the last two quarters, when most if not all of our markets posted declines in effective rents, this is good news,” Calanog said.

The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index has fallen 23 percent since April 26, when it touched the highest level since July 2007.

Little New Space

“Less than 400,000 square feet of new strip mall space was added in the second quarter, so increases in the national vacancy rate are coming from existing properties bleeding out, not from new properties,” Calanog said.

Effective rents at the shopping centers, or what tenants actually pay rather than landlords’ asking rents, fell 2.8 percent from a year earlier and 0.5 percent from the previous quarter, Reis said.

At regional and super-regional malls, vacancies remained at a 10-year high, rising to 9 percent from 8.4 percent a year earlier and 8.9 percent in the first quarter. Asking rents fell for the seventh straight quarter, the longest streak in the 10 years Reis has compiled the numbers.

Regional malls typically include department stores and fashion and general merchandise retailers and range in size from 400,000 to 800,000 square feet (37,161 to 74,322 square meters), according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Super-regional malls, including the Mall of America in Minnesota, South Coast Plaza in Southern California and Tysons Corner Center in Virginia, are defined as those larger than 800,000 square feet.

Neighborhood shopping centers tend to be 30,000 to 150,000 square feet and mainly house convenience retailers. Community shopping centers are 100,000 to 350,000 square feet and may include a discount department, home-improvement or grocery store.

MNeagle
11th July 2010, 03:11 PM
the pace of decline is moderating

I love it when they use the doublespeak. Yes, the patient is still bleeding, just not as much!!

EE_
11th July 2010, 03:16 PM
Perfectly normal in the type of recovery we have now.

Twisted Titan
11th July 2010, 03:22 PM
Out of 80 cities, 11 posted increases in rents paid by tenants. “Compared to the last two quarters, when most if not all of our markets posted declines in effective rents, this is good news


So 69 either remained flat ( which really isnt flat because real inflation is running north of 20%)

Or it just declined.

Yet somehow that is a improvement???


T

MNeagle
11th July 2010, 03:24 PM
well, at least it wasn't 'unexpected'!! lol

EE_
11th July 2010, 03:32 PM
well, at least it wasn't 'unexpected'!! lol


It was better then expected...it's always better then expected!
That makes everything good news.

Ponce
11th July 2010, 03:34 PM
Two places in my town closing down.......a candle shop and a vitamin shop.........almost forgot a fudge shop last week, I knew this one was going to fail..... prices way to high for this kind of town.

Skirnir
11th July 2010, 03:55 PM
Abandoned buildings are both silent protesters against, and embarrassments for the current regime. Let them multiply like rabbits hopped up on horse viagra listening to Barry Manilow.

That said, both of the town's larger strip malls are pretty much empty; they were each designed for two 'anchor' tenants, but they only house one each. The smaller ones are all but gutted.

It is worse the next town over. It is so bad there that one of the buildings collapsed into the street.

However, the people are too dim-witted to know what the cause is, beyond the facile 'it's thuh 'konomy.' I do not think they will ever know...

Phoenix
11th July 2010, 06:55 PM
Several places in town have relocated recently...I'm sure it has to do with higher rent...clueless landlords thinking that ever-increasing rent shall remain a reality. We drove by one place, and I told my wife, "I bet that a-hole wouldn't lower their rent to keep them there, now it will sit empty for months or longer."

Gaillo
11th July 2010, 09:52 PM
the pace of decline is moderating

I love it when they use the doublespeak. Yes, the patient is still bleeding, just not as much!!


"The rate of decline of the rate of decline is declining at a declining rate..." ;D

JohnQPublic
11th July 2010, 10:23 PM
What you will start seeing (and may already be seeing in some areas) is landlords allowing very low rent for limited amounts of time, just to keep the places looking full. That cannot last too long in the US though because of leverage.

The extreme example is Guatemala city, downtown, where roughly half the shops are pinata shops. Lot's of b'day partys for sure, but not that many. They do not have the leverage there, so it can stay that way for years.

jetgraphics
12th July 2010, 02:01 AM
I predict that the "Shopping Mall" and "Strip Mall" will become endangered, over the coming decades.
I predict that with population consolidation and rail based mass transit, we shall have mixed - use development.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed-use_development

Even if we were capable of transitioning to 100% electric vehicles, the automobile infrastructure is far too expensive and dependent upon petroleum. In short, the automobile population will begin constricting, more and more... and the cost will rise, more and more.

It will be very bad for those who are trapped in the suburbs on land too small to support farming, and too far from a city, away from mass transit.

Twisted Titan
12th July 2010, 04:33 AM
Several places in town have relocated recently...I'm sure it has to do with higher rent...clueless landlords thinking that ever-increasing rent shall remain a reality. We drove by one place, and I told my wife, "I bet that a-hole wouldn't lower their rent to keep them there, now it will sit empty for months or longer."



I cant wait till this hits the Major Metro Areas ( NYC in particular)

The trained eye knows what to look for but the oblivious still beileve what a broker tells: "You know youre locking in this place at a "steal" of a price right??"


Just give it a bit more time.