SLV^GLD
14th July 2010, 12:21 PM
07/13/2010
Download the radio spot (http://public.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/totn/2010/07/20100713_totn_01.mp3?dl=1)
The online transcript in full (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128490874)
NEAL CONAN, host:
This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington.
We'd like to believe that most of what we know is accurate and that if presented with facts to prove we're wrong, we would sheepishly accept the truth and change our views accordingly.
A new body of research out of the University of Michigan suggests that's not what happens, that we base our opinions on beliefs and when presented with contradictory facts, we adhere to our original belief even more strongly.
The phenomenon is called backfire, and it plays an especially important role in how we shape and solidify our beliefs on immigration, the president's place of birth, welfare and other highly partisan issues.
Have the facts ever convinced you to change your mind, and how did it happen? Call and tell us your story, 800-989-8255. Email us, talk@npr.org. You can also join the conversation on our website. Thats at npr.org. Click on TALK OF THE NATION.
We begin with Dana Milbank, national political columnist for The Washington Post, who joins us from a studio at the newspaper here in Washington. Nice to have you back on the program.
Mr. DANA MILBANK (National Political Columnist, Washington Post): Good to be with you, Neal.
CONAN: And on Sunday, the Post published a piece you wrote that started with Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's claim that law enforcement agencies found bodies in the desert, either buried or just lying out there, that had been beheaded.
Mr. MILBANK: Yes, I think Governor Brewer lost her head on that one in particular. Now, there's a huge problem with violence on the border, but virtually all of it happens to be on the Mexican side. And what happened in the case of this claim is a news organization out there called the Arizona Guardian called all the coroner's office, the medical examiners in those border counties, and they could not think of a single instance of an immigration-related beheading.
I called the governor's office to see if they could give me some of this decapitation information, and they didn't so much as return an email or a phone call. So I suspect if they had evidence of that, they would have furnished it.
CONAN: And no updates since publication.
Mr. MILBANK: There is no reply still.
CONAN: There are any number of stories about the immigration issue, which is really hot right now, but border violence on the rise, Phoenix becoming the world's number-two kidnapping capital, illegal immigrants responsible for most police killings. The majority of those who are crossing the border are doing so as drug mules, and you say all wrong.
Mr. MILBANK: Yes, in each of those cases. Now, the drug mules was again Governor Brewer, and in the case of the number-two kidnapping capital in the world, that's being voiced around town on the various networks by John McCain.
So we're in this curious situation where the Arizona Senator McCain and Arizona Governor Brewer, vying to see who can repel the largest number of tourists from Arizona. So they seem to be attempting to do in their own interests.
CONAN: And the facts, as you suggest, are not elusive here. The issue about crime rates and the border counties has been, you suggest, exhaustively reported in the major newspaper in that state.
Mr. MILBANK: They have been, and the FBI keeps statistics on this, and the fact is that violence is flat to slightly lower than it was a decade or even two decades ago. But when this is pointed out, the President said as much in his speech, people get indignant, and they respond with anecdotes like such-and-such rancher was killed in March, or this trooper was shot in April.
Now, these things are true, but of course, the anecdotes don't by themselves don't prove that there's actually more crime than there was previously. And then the response to this story has been very much the same, just sort of, like, angry. They suggest that I'm making up the facts. But I just, you know, pulled them from the FBI website. Now, I guess the FBI could be making up the facts, but I don't know how far we can take this.
CONAN: And this is obviously one set of issues around immigration, which has been, as we suggested earlier, a very hot subject of discussion in recent months, since Arizona passed the controversial law. But it is not isolated. This kind of political discourse, if you will, is not isolated to immigration.
Mr. MILBANK: No, I think that's right. As you introduced the subject, I mean, it brings to mind the birthers' claim. And, you know, I first heard about this, I said, well, that's kind of interesting, but then even once a copy of the birth certificate was posted online, it became, well, that's not the real birth certificate, or there's some other birth certificate.
I mean, we've had, you know, people making allegations that there's FEMA is operating a concentration camp, I think, in Wyoming, and it is almost as if no body of evidence that disproves these things will convince people not to believe it.
And I mean, this is because we have a Democratic president now, and, you know, there were similar things going on with George W. Bush. Remember the radio that he was supposed to be having in the back of his jacket during the debates?
CONAN: Oh, right, so he could pipe in...
Mr. MILBANK: They didn't do a very good job of it, if they were piping it in.
CONAN: If they were piping it in, well, also that the whole 9/11 plot was a government plot to justify war.
Mr. MILBANK: Exactly.
CONAN: Well, Brendan Nyhan is a health policy researcher at the University of Michigan. He recently published "When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions." That was in the June issue of the Journal of Political Behavior, and he joins us now from the studios of WUOM, Michigan Radio, our member station in Ann Arbor. Nice to have you with us today.
Mr. BRENDAN NYHAN (Robert Wood Johnson Scholar in Health Policy Research, University of Michigan): Thanks for having me.
CONAN: And when facts are readily available, why are they not enough to change people's minds?
Mr. NYHAN: Well, the problem is, you know, as human beings, we want to believe, you know, the things that we already believe. And so when you hear some information that contradicts your pre-existing views, unfortunately, what we tend to do is think of why we believed those things in the first place.
And, you know, so when, you know, we get these corrections, we tend to say I'm right, and I'm going to stick with my view. And the thing that my research, which is with Jason Reifler at Georgia State University, found is that in some cases, that corrective information can actually make the problem worse.
So some people who read Dana's article about immigration may actually have come away from it more strongly committed to the belief that crime has gone up along the border.
CONAN: And indeed are probably demanding his birth certificate.
(Soundbite of laughter)
Mr. NYHAN: That's right.
CONAN: This is a phenomenon described as backfire. You say it's a natural defense mechanism to avoid cognitive dissonance.
Mr. NYHAN: That's right. You know, it's hard, it's threatening to us to admit that things we believe are wrong. And all of us, liberals and conservatives, you know, have some beliefs that aren't true, and when we find that out, you know, it's threatening to our beliefs and ourselves.
And so what we think happens is that the way people, you know, try to resolve this in some cases is to, you know, buttress that belief that they initially held, and, you know, there's a long line of research showing results like this.
CONAN: And again, we'd like to think of our brain as something that's been trained in, you know, Cartesian logic, when in fact, our brain is sort of hard-wired to leap to conclusions very quickly.
Mr. NYHAN: That's right. And what's interesting is in some of these cases, it's the people who are most sophisticated who are best able to defend their beliefs and keep coming up with more elaborate reasons why 9/11 was really a conspiracy or how the weapons of mass destruction were actually smuggled to Syria or whatever the case may be.
So this isn't a question of education, necessarily, or sophistication. It's really about, it's really about preserving that belief that we initially held.
CONAN: And you define sophistication, as I read your piece, you define it as somebody who is right a lot of the time, but the 10 percent of the time they're wrong, boy, they stick to being wrong.
Mr. NYHAN: That's right. That's right. And, you know, I should note that this isn't just a matter of how you interpret information. It's the information you seek out in the first place.
So some of the people in the case of Dana's article who, you know, are committed to the belief that, you know, immigration has increased crime, may avoid information that contradicts that belief in the first place. So it's not just a matter of how they react to reading the article, it's that they may not even see it in the first place.
CONAN: And Dana, that's even perhaps more relevant in a world where we don't have to read any general-issue newspaper if we don't want to. We can find places where we can go to find people who agree with us.
Mr. MILBANK: I think that's exactly what's happening, and that's what's reinforcing this sort of a psychological predisposition that Brendan's talking about, and that is if you only get your information from, say, Fox News, or you only get your information from the Huffington Post, well, what they're telling you may be accurate, but they may leave out things that might sort of weigh in on the other side of the issue.
So then if you do stumble across something that undermines everything that you've been hearing, well, you get confused, you get angry, and, you know, a lot of the letter-writers in response to this particular story were saying I have my facts wrong. Of course, they didn't furnish facts in contradiction of that, although one did say I was full of whale poop, and I wasn't even sure whales made poop, but I didn't want to get into a factual...
CONAN: It's nice to get ambergris into the conversation.
(Soundbite of laughter)
Download the radio spot (http://public.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/totn/2010/07/20100713_totn_01.mp3?dl=1)
The online transcript in full (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128490874)
NEAL CONAN, host:
This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington.
We'd like to believe that most of what we know is accurate and that if presented with facts to prove we're wrong, we would sheepishly accept the truth and change our views accordingly.
A new body of research out of the University of Michigan suggests that's not what happens, that we base our opinions on beliefs and when presented with contradictory facts, we adhere to our original belief even more strongly.
The phenomenon is called backfire, and it plays an especially important role in how we shape and solidify our beliefs on immigration, the president's place of birth, welfare and other highly partisan issues.
Have the facts ever convinced you to change your mind, and how did it happen? Call and tell us your story, 800-989-8255. Email us, talk@npr.org. You can also join the conversation on our website. Thats at npr.org. Click on TALK OF THE NATION.
We begin with Dana Milbank, national political columnist for The Washington Post, who joins us from a studio at the newspaper here in Washington. Nice to have you back on the program.
Mr. DANA MILBANK (National Political Columnist, Washington Post): Good to be with you, Neal.
CONAN: And on Sunday, the Post published a piece you wrote that started with Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's claim that law enforcement agencies found bodies in the desert, either buried or just lying out there, that had been beheaded.
Mr. MILBANK: Yes, I think Governor Brewer lost her head on that one in particular. Now, there's a huge problem with violence on the border, but virtually all of it happens to be on the Mexican side. And what happened in the case of this claim is a news organization out there called the Arizona Guardian called all the coroner's office, the medical examiners in those border counties, and they could not think of a single instance of an immigration-related beheading.
I called the governor's office to see if they could give me some of this decapitation information, and they didn't so much as return an email or a phone call. So I suspect if they had evidence of that, they would have furnished it.
CONAN: And no updates since publication.
Mr. MILBANK: There is no reply still.
CONAN: There are any number of stories about the immigration issue, which is really hot right now, but border violence on the rise, Phoenix becoming the world's number-two kidnapping capital, illegal immigrants responsible for most police killings. The majority of those who are crossing the border are doing so as drug mules, and you say all wrong.
Mr. MILBANK: Yes, in each of those cases. Now, the drug mules was again Governor Brewer, and in the case of the number-two kidnapping capital in the world, that's being voiced around town on the various networks by John McCain.
So we're in this curious situation where the Arizona Senator McCain and Arizona Governor Brewer, vying to see who can repel the largest number of tourists from Arizona. So they seem to be attempting to do in their own interests.
CONAN: And the facts, as you suggest, are not elusive here. The issue about crime rates and the border counties has been, you suggest, exhaustively reported in the major newspaper in that state.
Mr. MILBANK: They have been, and the FBI keeps statistics on this, and the fact is that violence is flat to slightly lower than it was a decade or even two decades ago. But when this is pointed out, the President said as much in his speech, people get indignant, and they respond with anecdotes like such-and-such rancher was killed in March, or this trooper was shot in April.
Now, these things are true, but of course, the anecdotes don't by themselves don't prove that there's actually more crime than there was previously. And then the response to this story has been very much the same, just sort of, like, angry. They suggest that I'm making up the facts. But I just, you know, pulled them from the FBI website. Now, I guess the FBI could be making up the facts, but I don't know how far we can take this.
CONAN: And this is obviously one set of issues around immigration, which has been, as we suggested earlier, a very hot subject of discussion in recent months, since Arizona passed the controversial law. But it is not isolated. This kind of political discourse, if you will, is not isolated to immigration.
Mr. MILBANK: No, I think that's right. As you introduced the subject, I mean, it brings to mind the birthers' claim. And, you know, I first heard about this, I said, well, that's kind of interesting, but then even once a copy of the birth certificate was posted online, it became, well, that's not the real birth certificate, or there's some other birth certificate.
I mean, we've had, you know, people making allegations that there's FEMA is operating a concentration camp, I think, in Wyoming, and it is almost as if no body of evidence that disproves these things will convince people not to believe it.
And I mean, this is because we have a Democratic president now, and, you know, there were similar things going on with George W. Bush. Remember the radio that he was supposed to be having in the back of his jacket during the debates?
CONAN: Oh, right, so he could pipe in...
Mr. MILBANK: They didn't do a very good job of it, if they were piping it in.
CONAN: If they were piping it in, well, also that the whole 9/11 plot was a government plot to justify war.
Mr. MILBANK: Exactly.
CONAN: Well, Brendan Nyhan is a health policy researcher at the University of Michigan. He recently published "When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions." That was in the June issue of the Journal of Political Behavior, and he joins us now from the studios of WUOM, Michigan Radio, our member station in Ann Arbor. Nice to have you with us today.
Mr. BRENDAN NYHAN (Robert Wood Johnson Scholar in Health Policy Research, University of Michigan): Thanks for having me.
CONAN: And when facts are readily available, why are they not enough to change people's minds?
Mr. NYHAN: Well, the problem is, you know, as human beings, we want to believe, you know, the things that we already believe. And so when you hear some information that contradicts your pre-existing views, unfortunately, what we tend to do is think of why we believed those things in the first place.
And, you know, so when, you know, we get these corrections, we tend to say I'm right, and I'm going to stick with my view. And the thing that my research, which is with Jason Reifler at Georgia State University, found is that in some cases, that corrective information can actually make the problem worse.
So some people who read Dana's article about immigration may actually have come away from it more strongly committed to the belief that crime has gone up along the border.
CONAN: And indeed are probably demanding his birth certificate.
(Soundbite of laughter)
Mr. NYHAN: That's right.
CONAN: This is a phenomenon described as backfire. You say it's a natural defense mechanism to avoid cognitive dissonance.
Mr. NYHAN: That's right. You know, it's hard, it's threatening to us to admit that things we believe are wrong. And all of us, liberals and conservatives, you know, have some beliefs that aren't true, and when we find that out, you know, it's threatening to our beliefs and ourselves.
And so what we think happens is that the way people, you know, try to resolve this in some cases is to, you know, buttress that belief that they initially held, and, you know, there's a long line of research showing results like this.
CONAN: And again, we'd like to think of our brain as something that's been trained in, you know, Cartesian logic, when in fact, our brain is sort of hard-wired to leap to conclusions very quickly.
Mr. NYHAN: That's right. And what's interesting is in some of these cases, it's the people who are most sophisticated who are best able to defend their beliefs and keep coming up with more elaborate reasons why 9/11 was really a conspiracy or how the weapons of mass destruction were actually smuggled to Syria or whatever the case may be.
So this isn't a question of education, necessarily, or sophistication. It's really about, it's really about preserving that belief that we initially held.
CONAN: And you define sophistication, as I read your piece, you define it as somebody who is right a lot of the time, but the 10 percent of the time they're wrong, boy, they stick to being wrong.
Mr. NYHAN: That's right. That's right. And, you know, I should note that this isn't just a matter of how you interpret information. It's the information you seek out in the first place.
So some of the people in the case of Dana's article who, you know, are committed to the belief that, you know, immigration has increased crime, may avoid information that contradicts that belief in the first place. So it's not just a matter of how they react to reading the article, it's that they may not even see it in the first place.
CONAN: And Dana, that's even perhaps more relevant in a world where we don't have to read any general-issue newspaper if we don't want to. We can find places where we can go to find people who agree with us.
Mr. MILBANK: I think that's exactly what's happening, and that's what's reinforcing this sort of a psychological predisposition that Brendan's talking about, and that is if you only get your information from, say, Fox News, or you only get your information from the Huffington Post, well, what they're telling you may be accurate, but they may leave out things that might sort of weigh in on the other side of the issue.
So then if you do stumble across something that undermines everything that you've been hearing, well, you get confused, you get angry, and, you know, a lot of the letter-writers in response to this particular story were saying I have my facts wrong. Of course, they didn't furnish facts in contradiction of that, although one did say I was full of whale poop, and I wasn't even sure whales made poop, but I didn't want to get into a factual...
CONAN: It's nice to get ambergris into the conversation.
(Soundbite of laughter)