Quixote2
19th July 2010, 09:05 PM
http://neithercorp.blogspot.com/2010/07/economic-meltdown-final-phase.html
Economic Meltdown: The Final Phase
Giordano Bruno
Neithercorp Press
July 19, 2010
In the financial life of every culture built upon faulty monetary policy, there are points at which the thin thread of economic faith; the thread that ties the entire failing system together, the thread made tangible by the hopes (and sometimes ignorance) of the general populace, finally snaps. From Ancient Rome, to Weimar Germany, to Argentina, to modern day America, no society fueled by unsustainable debt and fiat inflation can duck the ‘Fiscal Reaper’ for very long. The U.S. alone has survived since the early 1970’s (after Nixon removed the last vestiges of the gold standard) on nothing but questionable credit practices and baseless optimism, but there is a limit to the power of fantasy. This is a fact that most mainstream financial analysts and some in the American public refuse to grasp. Mere belief in the enduring nature of the marketplace is not enough; the fundamentals must also support that belief.
Today, we face an atmosphere in which the fundamentals are fiercely opposed to the publicly promoted perception of the economy, and it is moments in history like this that present a clear primer for total collapse. Financial disaster is bad enough when it is at least partially anticipated. When the masses are caught completely unaware and unprepared in the midst of misguided conviction, this leads to the worst kind of tragedy: the ironic and Shakespearian kind. To avoid this brand of tragedy is one of the primary reasons why we in the Liberty Movement do what we do. We may not be able to stop the current crisis from developing, but we can create awareness, and through this we can lessen the cultural shock, and thereby lessen the impact.
Mainstream economists crowed about the “invincible†rise of globalism and the unstoppable U.S. financial juggernaut for years while more level headed and intelligent men tried to warn the public of danger. The initial derivatives collapse in 2007 / 2008 should have put all of these pathetic establishment cheerleaders to shame, not to mention out of work. Yet three years later, amazingly, we are asked, even expected, to continue to look to such sad and useless people for predictions on market stability that always turn out absolutely inaccurate, and advice on savings and investment that they are not equipped to give.
I suppose we should not be surprised by the continued lifespan of MSM parrots and puppets. They may not be helpful to the average American, but they are very helpful to international banks and the globalist companies that pay their salaries. They distract and confuse us. They comfort when they should caution, and contradict when they should pay heed. Our financial house is burning from the bottom floor up, and they assure us that the warm orange glow is just the dawning of a new and beautiful day. We are told to “look to the futureâ€, a return to normalcy is “just around the cornerâ€. Never would they dare to weigh the cold hard factors of the present, or the ruse would be up. Whether they are aware of it or not the lies media pundits perpetuate set the stage for even greater upheaval, to the detriment of most, and the benefit of only a handful.
In this article, as we have in so many others, we will examine those lies, as well as the truths they are meant to hide. The most important truth of all being, that not only are we not in the middle of a recovery, but that the final phase of the economic meltdown is about to commence…
Distractions, Half-Truths, And Outright Lies
“We will not have any more crashes in our time.â€
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
“I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.â€
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.â€
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929
“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.â€
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
Most of us were not alive to witness the throws of the Great Depression, but for many, the quotes above sound strangely familiar. Pundits and government officials of our fateful era have taken to spewing the same kind of nonsense on a daily basis, and one begins to wonder if they are TRYING to top the ridiculous statements of their forebears in an attempt of ultimate mockery. Today, not only are we told that “green shoots†abound, but that if those green shoots fail, it will only be because we did not “believe†hard enough in their existence!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/7864373/Will-the-world-suffer-a-double-dip-recession-Only-if-we-talk-ourselves-into-it.html
It is this kind of idiocy that led us to the state of affairs we are in now, and it is the same idiocy that will leave millions of Americans in extended financial ruin in the near future. The absurd idea that prosperity is driven merely by blind optimism must be put to rest if we are ever to rebuild. Transparency, the pure and unadulterated truth, must be present in every aspect of government and finance without question for a culture to succeed. No longer can we operate in a system built upon the premise that the American people must be kept in the dark “for their own goodâ€.
The essence of the recovery argument lay in unsubstantiated rhetoric, skewed statistics, and the over-promotion of news items that in reality are very minor economic indicators. Wall street reform has been heralded as a fix-all, yet the language of the legislation does little to nothing in reigning in the toxic derivatives trading practices that fomented the housing bubble, nor does it take any measures against the root cause of the mortgage crisis; the private Federal Reserve Bank, which artificially lowered interest rates and lending standards during the 1990’s knowing full well that this would amass pockets of poisonous debt securities throughout the economy. International banks have not been truly punished for their practices of market rigging and faulty accounting, nor will they be. The recent and laughable lawsuit settlements of AIG and Goldman Sachs prove that no bankers will be held accountable, only penalized with fines that amount to little more than pocket change to these monstrous global corporations:
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-123.htm
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/16/ap/business/main6685538.shtml
This means that the conditions which triggered the initial collapse have not been mended in any way. Absolutely nothing has changed since 2007. Americans have only been temporarily shielded from the effects and the particulars of continuing financial corruption. For instance, it has been revealed that the SEC itself has known since at least April that Citigroup has been hiding assets and debts on its books by counting Repurchase Agreements as actual sales. For those of you not familiar with such slight-of-hand, this is the same kind of accounting trick that led to the fall of Lehman Brothers:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66F0NV20100716
Citigroup claims, of course, that these Repurchase Agreements are only a small part of their operation and will not affect their ability to function. The problem is that like Lehman Brothers and Citigroup, it is probable that most global banks have used false accounting procedures to hide the true measure of their leveraged capital. It certainly is not in their best interest to reveal the whole truth, so why would they? Due to the continuing dilemma of hidden and unreported bank debts, it is only a matter of time before we witness yet another credit implosion, followed by even more taxpayer funded bailouts, and even greater stress on the stability of the U.S. Dollar.
While empty promises of reform and the hidden accounting practices of banks have kept markets malleable for the moment, it is really the exaggeration of consumer spending and retail gains, along with rigged unemployment reports from the Labor Department, that have kept the false recovery wheel spinning for over a year. Any profit or production increase by almost any company has been held up as a rallying cry for a bull market, even though in most cases these companies increased profits by cutting their labor force, and increased production by forcing their remaining employees to work harder for the same amount of money. They did not expand profits because the U.S. consumer is spending once again with wild abandon as has been suggested every time new quarterly profit reports are released. After a year of this misrepresentation of the facts, finally, the truth is starting to come out.
Retail stocks are beginning to shed value as they take hits from decreasing sales and profits, meaning, the cost cutting strategy has run its course and retailers are still losing money:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-14/sales-at-u-s-retailers-fell-for-a-second-month-in-june.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dim-retail-sales-hurt-economy-apf-3335262562.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Service sector employment has remained stagnant. The excitable talk that started at the beginning of this year of a hiring resurgence has now faded:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65M2WK20100706
The bottom line; the TRUE unemployment rate of around 20% has become perpetual, and some economists are even suggesting that we accept it as a standard. The American public is now coming to realize that healthy job creation is a very distant goal, one that the government alone has no ability to achieve, bailout or no bailout:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-13/americans-in-70-majority-see-frozen-unemployment-as-budget-deficit-widens.html
On the international scene, news from Europe has gone abruptly quiet. After months of blaring reports on the Greek sovereign debt crisis, and the imploding Euro, suddenly, we are told that the situation is stabilized? But how? What measures were taken and how did they affect a balancing of the EU economy? The fact is, no measures have been taken. No effective adjustments have been made. The MSM has only muted the reports, and for many Americans, out-of-sight truly is out-of-mind.
Greece is still right where it was six months ago, and the debt to GDP ratios of EU member countries continue to rise.
The mere mention that Spain’s Aaa credit rating was coming under review for a possible downgrade jolted stocks at the beginning of July. The review is not set to conclude for three months, but the market reaction shows that some of the larger investment firms are keenly aware of the weakness in Spain, and the chance that it will become the next in a long line of Greek style implosions:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-30/spain-s-aaa-on-downgrade-review-at-moody-s-as-note-sale-nears.html
Portugal’s credit rating was downgraded by Fitch in March, and now it has been downgraded by Moody’s as well:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/13/portugals-credit-rating-d_n_644093.html
And, the IMF and the EU have suspended a review of Hungary’s funding program while the country is in the midst of meltdown. This means Hungary will no longer have access to the $25.1 billion loan package made available by the IMF to see them through the crisis. Frankly, I think all countries are much better off not taking money from the demon spawn over at the IMF, but many of the citizens of Hungary may not see it that way. The suspension of the loan package almost ensures a national default:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66G0RT20100717
Most European countries are in the same predicament as Greece to varying degrees, Greece just happened to be the first to fall. The combined weight of sovereign debts in all EU countries is now threatening the very framework of the European Central Bank itself. The ECB is now facing higher interest rates, which means increased funding costs that they cannot afford without inflating the Euro:
•http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/trichet-faces-threat-of-higher-market-rates-as-debt-crisis-hurts-economy.html
What is this leading to? A situation we have been warning about for years; either the default of numerous EU member nations, or the inflationary collapse of the Euro. In each case, the EU will eventually be forced to turn towards the only avenue left available to them; the IMF and full austerity measures. This, of course, was the plan all along….
We have just covered the broader problems in the world economy that have been obscured by the establishment media in order to perpetuate a false sense of security in the masses. However, these are simply ongoing problems that some may dismiss as “par for the courseâ€, troubles that could go on for years without causing immediate damage to America itself. Other recent events, though, now show that the likelihood of a final phase meltdown of the U.S. economy may begin before the end of this year.
Economic Meltdown: The Final Phase
Giordano Bruno
Neithercorp Press
July 19, 2010
In the financial life of every culture built upon faulty monetary policy, there are points at which the thin thread of economic faith; the thread that ties the entire failing system together, the thread made tangible by the hopes (and sometimes ignorance) of the general populace, finally snaps. From Ancient Rome, to Weimar Germany, to Argentina, to modern day America, no society fueled by unsustainable debt and fiat inflation can duck the ‘Fiscal Reaper’ for very long. The U.S. alone has survived since the early 1970’s (after Nixon removed the last vestiges of the gold standard) on nothing but questionable credit practices and baseless optimism, but there is a limit to the power of fantasy. This is a fact that most mainstream financial analysts and some in the American public refuse to grasp. Mere belief in the enduring nature of the marketplace is not enough; the fundamentals must also support that belief.
Today, we face an atmosphere in which the fundamentals are fiercely opposed to the publicly promoted perception of the economy, and it is moments in history like this that present a clear primer for total collapse. Financial disaster is bad enough when it is at least partially anticipated. When the masses are caught completely unaware and unprepared in the midst of misguided conviction, this leads to the worst kind of tragedy: the ironic and Shakespearian kind. To avoid this brand of tragedy is one of the primary reasons why we in the Liberty Movement do what we do. We may not be able to stop the current crisis from developing, but we can create awareness, and through this we can lessen the cultural shock, and thereby lessen the impact.
Mainstream economists crowed about the “invincible†rise of globalism and the unstoppable U.S. financial juggernaut for years while more level headed and intelligent men tried to warn the public of danger. The initial derivatives collapse in 2007 / 2008 should have put all of these pathetic establishment cheerleaders to shame, not to mention out of work. Yet three years later, amazingly, we are asked, even expected, to continue to look to such sad and useless people for predictions on market stability that always turn out absolutely inaccurate, and advice on savings and investment that they are not equipped to give.
I suppose we should not be surprised by the continued lifespan of MSM parrots and puppets. They may not be helpful to the average American, but they are very helpful to international banks and the globalist companies that pay their salaries. They distract and confuse us. They comfort when they should caution, and contradict when they should pay heed. Our financial house is burning from the bottom floor up, and they assure us that the warm orange glow is just the dawning of a new and beautiful day. We are told to “look to the futureâ€, a return to normalcy is “just around the cornerâ€. Never would they dare to weigh the cold hard factors of the present, or the ruse would be up. Whether they are aware of it or not the lies media pundits perpetuate set the stage for even greater upheaval, to the detriment of most, and the benefit of only a handful.
In this article, as we have in so many others, we will examine those lies, as well as the truths they are meant to hide. The most important truth of all being, that not only are we not in the middle of a recovery, but that the final phase of the economic meltdown is about to commence…
Distractions, Half-Truths, And Outright Lies
“We will not have any more crashes in our time.â€
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
“I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.â€
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.â€
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929
“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.â€
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
Most of us were not alive to witness the throws of the Great Depression, but for many, the quotes above sound strangely familiar. Pundits and government officials of our fateful era have taken to spewing the same kind of nonsense on a daily basis, and one begins to wonder if they are TRYING to top the ridiculous statements of their forebears in an attempt of ultimate mockery. Today, not only are we told that “green shoots†abound, but that if those green shoots fail, it will only be because we did not “believe†hard enough in their existence!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/7864373/Will-the-world-suffer-a-double-dip-recession-Only-if-we-talk-ourselves-into-it.html
It is this kind of idiocy that led us to the state of affairs we are in now, and it is the same idiocy that will leave millions of Americans in extended financial ruin in the near future. The absurd idea that prosperity is driven merely by blind optimism must be put to rest if we are ever to rebuild. Transparency, the pure and unadulterated truth, must be present in every aspect of government and finance without question for a culture to succeed. No longer can we operate in a system built upon the premise that the American people must be kept in the dark “for their own goodâ€.
The essence of the recovery argument lay in unsubstantiated rhetoric, skewed statistics, and the over-promotion of news items that in reality are very minor economic indicators. Wall street reform has been heralded as a fix-all, yet the language of the legislation does little to nothing in reigning in the toxic derivatives trading practices that fomented the housing bubble, nor does it take any measures against the root cause of the mortgage crisis; the private Federal Reserve Bank, which artificially lowered interest rates and lending standards during the 1990’s knowing full well that this would amass pockets of poisonous debt securities throughout the economy. International banks have not been truly punished for their practices of market rigging and faulty accounting, nor will they be. The recent and laughable lawsuit settlements of AIG and Goldman Sachs prove that no bankers will be held accountable, only penalized with fines that amount to little more than pocket change to these monstrous global corporations:
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-123.htm
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/16/ap/business/main6685538.shtml
This means that the conditions which triggered the initial collapse have not been mended in any way. Absolutely nothing has changed since 2007. Americans have only been temporarily shielded from the effects and the particulars of continuing financial corruption. For instance, it has been revealed that the SEC itself has known since at least April that Citigroup has been hiding assets and debts on its books by counting Repurchase Agreements as actual sales. For those of you not familiar with such slight-of-hand, this is the same kind of accounting trick that led to the fall of Lehman Brothers:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66F0NV20100716
Citigroup claims, of course, that these Repurchase Agreements are only a small part of their operation and will not affect their ability to function. The problem is that like Lehman Brothers and Citigroup, it is probable that most global banks have used false accounting procedures to hide the true measure of their leveraged capital. It certainly is not in their best interest to reveal the whole truth, so why would they? Due to the continuing dilemma of hidden and unreported bank debts, it is only a matter of time before we witness yet another credit implosion, followed by even more taxpayer funded bailouts, and even greater stress on the stability of the U.S. Dollar.
While empty promises of reform and the hidden accounting practices of banks have kept markets malleable for the moment, it is really the exaggeration of consumer spending and retail gains, along with rigged unemployment reports from the Labor Department, that have kept the false recovery wheel spinning for over a year. Any profit or production increase by almost any company has been held up as a rallying cry for a bull market, even though in most cases these companies increased profits by cutting their labor force, and increased production by forcing their remaining employees to work harder for the same amount of money. They did not expand profits because the U.S. consumer is spending once again with wild abandon as has been suggested every time new quarterly profit reports are released. After a year of this misrepresentation of the facts, finally, the truth is starting to come out.
Retail stocks are beginning to shed value as they take hits from decreasing sales and profits, meaning, the cost cutting strategy has run its course and retailers are still losing money:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-14/sales-at-u-s-retailers-fell-for-a-second-month-in-june.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dim-retail-sales-hurt-economy-apf-3335262562.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Service sector employment has remained stagnant. The excitable talk that started at the beginning of this year of a hiring resurgence has now faded:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65M2WK20100706
The bottom line; the TRUE unemployment rate of around 20% has become perpetual, and some economists are even suggesting that we accept it as a standard. The American public is now coming to realize that healthy job creation is a very distant goal, one that the government alone has no ability to achieve, bailout or no bailout:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-13/americans-in-70-majority-see-frozen-unemployment-as-budget-deficit-widens.html
On the international scene, news from Europe has gone abruptly quiet. After months of blaring reports on the Greek sovereign debt crisis, and the imploding Euro, suddenly, we are told that the situation is stabilized? But how? What measures were taken and how did they affect a balancing of the EU economy? The fact is, no measures have been taken. No effective adjustments have been made. The MSM has only muted the reports, and for many Americans, out-of-sight truly is out-of-mind.
Greece is still right where it was six months ago, and the debt to GDP ratios of EU member countries continue to rise.
The mere mention that Spain’s Aaa credit rating was coming under review for a possible downgrade jolted stocks at the beginning of July. The review is not set to conclude for three months, but the market reaction shows that some of the larger investment firms are keenly aware of the weakness in Spain, and the chance that it will become the next in a long line of Greek style implosions:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-30/spain-s-aaa-on-downgrade-review-at-moody-s-as-note-sale-nears.html
Portugal’s credit rating was downgraded by Fitch in March, and now it has been downgraded by Moody’s as well:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/13/portugals-credit-rating-d_n_644093.html
And, the IMF and the EU have suspended a review of Hungary’s funding program while the country is in the midst of meltdown. This means Hungary will no longer have access to the $25.1 billion loan package made available by the IMF to see them through the crisis. Frankly, I think all countries are much better off not taking money from the demon spawn over at the IMF, but many of the citizens of Hungary may not see it that way. The suspension of the loan package almost ensures a national default:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66G0RT20100717
Most European countries are in the same predicament as Greece to varying degrees, Greece just happened to be the first to fall. The combined weight of sovereign debts in all EU countries is now threatening the very framework of the European Central Bank itself. The ECB is now facing higher interest rates, which means increased funding costs that they cannot afford without inflating the Euro:
•http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/trichet-faces-threat-of-higher-market-rates-as-debt-crisis-hurts-economy.html
What is this leading to? A situation we have been warning about for years; either the default of numerous EU member nations, or the inflationary collapse of the Euro. In each case, the EU will eventually be forced to turn towards the only avenue left available to them; the IMF and full austerity measures. This, of course, was the plan all along….
We have just covered the broader problems in the world economy that have been obscured by the establishment media in order to perpetuate a false sense of security in the masses. However, these are simply ongoing problems that some may dismiss as “par for the courseâ€, troubles that could go on for years without causing immediate damage to America itself. Other recent events, though, now show that the likelihood of a final phase meltdown of the U.S. economy may begin before the end of this year.