problem with AU + AG i'm having problems reconciling

[chad]

i've been hearing for years that "when j6p and the public" start buying ag + au because of loss of faith in fiat that that's the point it'll "go to the moon."

yet every day i see, watch, read anything related to the economy, it appears to me as if j6p is unemployed, overextended, and broke. i keep trying to figure out where j6p is going to come up with money to buy silver rounds + bars of au.

i am a true believer in PMs and have a lot, but i am starting to become an official doubter of this scenario. i'm starting to think it'll always be worth around what it is now. anyone who can afford to buy it already has.

[horseshoe3]

I think you're right. I would clarify the definition of "worth around what it is now" as in real terms. It will most certainly go up in relation to the USD. It's an excellent store of value, and even gains slightly in real terms due to manufacturing efficiency bringing down the cost of goods. But, it will never go to the moon for more than a few months.

[Ponce]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.

[chad]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


i don't doubt this, but i think it will have to be the gov. or institutions that take the price to the moon, not the general public.

where i live, the public is selling everything they own to pay the rent or buy food, they have don't money left to buy 5 gram bars of gold.

[Horn]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


i don't doubt this, but i think it will have to be the gov. or institutions that take the price to the moon, not the general public.

where i live, the public is selling everything they own to pay the rent or buy food, they don't money left to buy 5 gram bars of gold.


Is why I charge you to deliver unto them the Silver news.

[chad]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


i don't doubt this, but i think it will have to be the gov. or institutions that take the price to the moon, not the general public.

where i live, the public is selling everything they own to pay the rent or buy food, they don't money left to buy 5 gram bars of gold.


Is why I charge you to deliver unto them the Silver news.


yeah, but that's where the problem lies for me. a 5 gram gold of bar is roughly the same cost as 10 ounces of silver.

i guess everyone is going to go out and buy 2 ounces of silver or something and that'll shoot the moon. nobody i know can even afford 10 ounces, really.

i'm a downer today.

[Twisted Titan]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


i don't doubt this, but i think it will have to be the gov. or institutions that take the price to the moon, not the general public.

where i live, the public is selling everything they own to pay the rent or buy food, they have don't money left to buy 5 gram bars of gold.




But I will be able to provide gainful employment to a nice portion of the new pesantry for tending my Lands Business and other such affects.

I am certain that you will provide such employment to future ambitious workers as well.

Right??T

[chad]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


i don't doubt this, but i think it will have to be the gov. or institutions that take the price to the moon, not the general public.

where i live, the public is selling everything they own to pay the rent or buy food, they have don't money left to buy 5 gram bars of gold.




But I will be able to provide gainful employment to a nice portion of the new pesantry for tending my Lands Business and other such affects.

I am certain that you will provide such employment to future ambitious workers as well.

Right??T


i expect so.

[Ash_Williams]

Over a range of 50 years PM's have been an ok investment. A range of 40 years, or 1 year... not that great. I don't think you will get rich by holding PMs.

[Horn]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


i don't doubt this, but i think it will have to be the gov. or institutions that take the price to the moon, not the general public.

where i live, the public is selling everything they own to pay the rent or buy food, they don't money left to buy 5 gram bars of gold.


Is why I charge you to deliver unto them the Silver news.


yeah, but that's where the problem lies for me. a 5 gram gold of bar is roughly the same cost as 10 ounces of silver.

i guess everyone is going to go out and buy 2 ounces of silver or something and that'll shoot the moon. nobody i know can even afford 10 ounces, really.

i'm a downer today.




I've never had a problem convincing anyone an Eagle is worth $20, or it should be $35.

Now gold is getting a little tough to sell at those measures.

[philo beddoe]

i've been hearing for years that "when j6p and the public" start buying ag + au because of loss of faith in fiat that that's the point it'll "go to the moon."

yet every day i see, watch, read anything related to the economy, it appears to me as if j6p is unemployed, overextended, and broke. i keep trying to figure out where j6p is going to come up with money to buy silver rounds + bars of au.

i am a true believer in PMs and have a lot, but i am starting to become an official doubter of this scenario. i'm starting to think it'll always be worth around what it is now. anyone who can afford to buy it already has.
I still know lots of people with 50K - 200K in the bank whose extent of gold is their wedding rings and an old coin or necklace.

[StackerKen]

Gold had a great 10 years and it brought silver along for the ride.

Im thinking they are a bit out of Gas now. Gold may get to 1300 someday...and silver might tag along..

But I don't think its gonna keep going like it did the previous ten years

and it could pull an 80's scenario maybe?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au80-84.gif


If it does go down....I guess I will just give it to the Grandkids

[philo beddoe]

Gold had a great 10 years and it brought silver along for the ride.

Im thinking they are a bit out of Gas now. Gold may get to 1300 someday...and silver might tag along..

But I don't think its gonna keep going like it did the previous ten years

and it could pull an 80's scenario maybe?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au80-84.gif

It pulled the eighties scenario when Volcker jacked rates up to 18%. You see that happening anytime soon? America still had a manufacturing base then, and a deficit that was tame compared to todays. They can not raise interest rates now, because we would effectively be paying China 10% to 20% on their bonds. Not gonna happen

[tater]

I kinda think the j6pack gold buying mania scenario is thinking that au/ag are or will be in a "Bubble"
situation. Au and ag are not (IMO) in a bubble, they are money. Get some if you can cause you'll be
po folk without it.

I believe folks should be prepped in other areas like food, water, shelter and protection before they
spring for the metals though. Those j6packs that can't afford to buy the metals need to start gardening IMO.

Also, the filthy rich bassids that control the currency have a buttload of gold too and they want more. They
want it all! So, if you have one lil gold coin to your name that greedy sumbitch that owns more than Fort Knox
will still covet your lil coin. Maybe an oz of au could ransom a fella one day, maybe.

[Libertytree]

How would the game change should fiat cease to exist?

[mamboni]

There are two opposing forces at work vis-a-vis silver/gold prices: inflation versus deflation. No one knows which one will prevail though monetary historians say that the ultimate endpoint is currency collapse and devaluation to worthlessness. Our government is raising taxes massively, sucking liquidity out of the provate sector in order to prop up it pathetic negative balance of payments: this is deflationary. Folk are struggling with lost jobs, lost income and many are defaulting on credit cards and home mortgages: this is deflationary. Yet the Federal Reserve seems hell bent on propping up asset prices in order to protect the bond and equity markets and is insinuating that another massive quantitative easing (i.e. money printing ex vacuo) is in the offing: this is inflationary. There is still massive surplus inventory, of homes, commercial real estate, and many goods and of course, labor! These are very deflationary. The prudent person should be debt-free and rather liquid: 50% cash 50% silver+gold. Even in these deflationary times where cash is scarece, there is a lot of paper money that has been created and only a tiny portion of it invested in the metals. It would take only a small portion of the paper wealth, perhaps 5-10%, directed to gold+silver to send prices upward 2-5 fold. It could happen within 2 years.

[StackerKen]

Gold had a great 10 years and it brought silver along for the ride.

Im thinking they are a bit out of Gas now. Gold may get to 1300 someday...and silver might tag along..

But I don't think its gonna keep going like it did the previous ten years

and it could pull an 80's scenario maybe?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au80-84.gif

It pulled the eighties scenario when Volcker jacked rates up to 18%. You see that happening anytime soon? America still had a manufacturing base then, and a deficit that was tame compared to todays. They can not raise interest rates now, because we would effectively be paying China 10% to 20% on their bonds. Not gonna happen


They can't raise them now....But how long can they stay where they are? They will raise them someday

Or there could be the total dollar collapse that many have predicted for several years now.

[Ponce]

Chad? and that's why I also wrote......."I am counting on China an India to make the price go up because the American people are broke"........

[tater]

How would the game change should fiat cease to exist?


I would guess there would be WAY more po folk than now. And a tiny and dwindling middle class.

Of course food trumps everthing in case of apocalyptic SHTF stuff happening.

[StackerKen]

Thanks for the encouragement folks :)

I'll hold some for the grandkids and see what happens

[Book]

yet every day i see, watch, read anything related to the economy, it appears to me as if j6p is unemployed, overextended, and broke. i keep trying to figure out where j6p is going to come up with money to buy silver rounds + bars of au.



http://www.selling-gold-jewelry.net/selling-gold-jewelry.jpg

Joe Sixpack's ex-wife is selling his wedding ring because Joe Sixpack is now behind on his child support payments. Joe Sixpack sold his wedding band months ago for beer when his unemployment checks stopped and wifey threw him out of their foreclosed house.

As to SILVER...wtshtf nobody is gonna be reading the date on your "silver" dime at the grocery store when you tell the checkout clerk that it is worth more than ten cents...lol.

http://www.storeposs.com/images/checkout_2.jpg

:D

[Book]

The prudent person should be debt-free and rather liquid: 50% cash 50% silver+gold.



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/rich_doctor.jpg

:oo-->

[sirgonzo420]

There are two opposing forces at work vis-a-vis silver/gold prices: inflation versus deflation. No one knows which one will prevail though monetary historians say that the ultimate endpoint is currency collapse and devaluation to worthlessness. Our government is raising taxes massively, sucking liquidity out of the provate sector in order to prop up it pathetic negative balance of payments: this is deflationary. Folk are struggling with lost jobs, lost income and many are defaulting on credit cards and home mortgages: this is deflationary. Yet the Federal Reserve seems hell bent on propping up asset prices in order to protect the bond and equity markets and is insinuating that another massive quantitative easing (i.e. money printing ex vacuo) is in the offing: this is inflationary. There is still massive surplus inventory, of homes, commercial real estate, and many goods and of course, labor! These are very deflationary. The prudent person should be debt-free and rather liquid: 50% cash 50% silver+gold. Even in these deflationary times where cash is scarece, there is a lot of paper money that has been created and only a tiny portion of it invested in the metals. It would take only a small portion of the paper wealth, perhaps 5-10%, directed to gold+silver to send prices upward 2-5 fold. It could happen within 2 years.


Things you don't need will have deflated prices.

Things you do need will have inflated prices.

That is how I see it unfolding.

[sunshine05]

I don't think anyone has ever recommended one to buy metals as an investment but rather for wealth preservation. That's how I look at it. I don't expect to get rich by owning them but I feel I have not choice but to own them. I think it would be foolish to have all money in the dollar because we know in the end that won't turn out good. So I've slowly been accumulating gold and silver. And for long term growth I invest in foreign stocks that pay good dividends. And when we have a cash surplus we try to buy things that we know we're going to need rather than saving like we used to. Things have changed so much in the way we handle money. A few years ago, we probably would have used the money for a beach condo or something like that but we don't feel comfortable doing anything like that now with how uncertain things are. And we were big time savers but now we just don't bother since there is very little interest earned:(.

[Saul Mine]

i've been hearing for years that "when j6p and the public" start buying ag + au because of loss of faith in fiat that that's the point it'll "go to the moon."

yet every day i see, watch, read anything related to the economy, it appears to me as if j6p is unemployed, overextended, and broke. i keep trying to figure out where j6p is going to come up with money to buy silver rounds + bars of au.

i am a true believer in PMs and have a lot, but i am starting to become an official doubter of this scenario. i'm starting to think it'll always be worth around what it is now. anyone who can afford to buy it already has.


Ok, so you have noticed that everybody talks in cliches, and some of those cliches don't describe reality. That is normal for cliches, and everybody is going to keep using them. If you don't like that, well, it is up to you to educate yourself enough to follow your own counsel.

First, the cliche refers to a panic situation, especially one involving inflated money supply. "Everybody" (that cliche again) has lots of money and eagerly invests the excess in one currently popular investment. It might be land in a particular area, or a particular class of business, or a unique product. Cab drivers and shoe shine boys will be passing out investment tips.

That panic situation does not exist at this time, and it's hard to foresee it any time in the near future. A lot of people predict it anyway because it is the only example the world has seen recently. We have heard of collapses, Brazil, Greece, Zimbabwe, and so forth, but few people are familiar with details. Besides, nobody in the great and wonderful USA wants to consider the possibility of resembling any of those situations. We want to pretend we can collapse and still maintain our dignity. Again, it is up to you to educate yourself and then follow your own counsel.

[StackerKen]

I made the mistake of selling most of my gold ten years ago when it was doing nothing cause I wanted to buy a house.

I regret doing that :-\

I won't do it again.

But Im done stacking.

[Gknowmx]

Com'on, Chad, lets pick you back up and brush you off; its time for a review on the principles.

J6P or anyone else who is a perpetual consumer has no use for gold or silver or any other durable asset for that matter; if they can't eat it, drink it, or sleep under or with it, what use is it?

Until a person wakes up and realizes that he/she has to produce more than they consume, they have no use for a store of value. You don't invest in currencies like gold and silver, you invest in yourself. If your value to society as a producer of goods doesn't increase, dont' expect the metals to do the heavy lifting for you.

[cedarchopper]

The last 7/8 years have seen a 3 1/2 to 4 X's gain in gold and close to it for silver. It is BS that PM's won't make you rich. If you put $200,000 into PM's then, you're doing pretty good.

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

It's important to remember who will be buying the Au & Ag...

http://www.cafrman.com/images/WealthDistribution.GIF

[gunDriller]

well, there are 2 thing - Jane & Joe six pack realizing the Gold is Money, and Jane & Joe having the FRN's to buy gold.

the # of unemployed folks is growing.

BUT there are still loads of folks with savings built up during the 70's, 80's, 90's, and 00's, and they are slowly realizing that the US $ may not be money.

i believe Harvey Organ, Ted Butler, Adrian Douglas, & Mohammed Rafeeq & Andrew Maguire about the metals market, that the price is manipulated down.

plus the history of this is extensive, e.g. the 400 ton naked short gold position LTCM had in 1998 that caused them to require government assistance.


so that raises the question of what happens if the manipulation stops because of the CFTC actually doing its job, or because physical demand causes a COMEX default. which Harvey Organ presents some pretty credible evidence for.

the net result is not only a rise in gold and silver price, maybe silver even more because that market is smaller and more easily manipulated. when the manipulation stops, watch out 8)

well that's the Kitco price, which is based on gold futures. the premium for physical will continue to go up. in Europe right now it's about $200 above spot for a Krugerrand. so you can take a few Krugs and pay for your European vacation ;D


also, current owners of precious metals will have resources to make trades.

[gunDriller]

I am one of those who likes to say that..........gold and silver are like two horses at the race track and behind the barriers being held back till the moment is jutst right to let go........and then......get the hell out of the way because they are going to run you down.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNVj-501y0U

yep, they'll be run over just like that mother deer trampling the dog (that parts at about 1:00).

not that i'm implying that The Dog (Silver) will be trampled. Just the Opposite. ;D

[cedarchopper]

Another thing, it doesn't matter how Joe and Jane in America are doing, PM's are a global market and much bigger than most people realize...somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 Trillion Dollar A Year Market! That is a lot of liquidity.

America is shedding power and Asia is absorbing it. If you have PM's, there are plenty of people around the globe who will be glad to have it.

[chad]

It's important to remember who will be buying the Au & Ag...

http://www.cafrman.com/images/WealthDistribution.GIF


hmm. this is useful. thank you.

[Sparky]

There are two opposing forces at work vis-a-vis silver/gold prices: inflation versus deflation. No one knows which one will prevail though monetary historians say that the ultimate endpoint is currency collapse and devaluation to worthlessness.
...

In all of history, has deflation ever won this battle?

[gunDriller]

Another thing, it doesn't matter how Joe and Jane in America are doing, PM's are a global market and much bigger than most people realize...somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 Trillion Dollar A Year Market! That is a lot of liquidity.

America is shedding power and Asia is absorbing it. If you have PM's, there are plenty of people around the globe who will be glad to have it.


that's a good point.

maybe i should learn Chinese and apply to Apmex' new branch in Shanghai.

[Sparky]

I don't think anyone has ever recommended one to buy metals as an investment but rather for wealth preservation.
...


Sure, lots of people have. Including here. Including me.

It's much harder though.
If you started with $25,000 and bought gold at $250, then sold at $730, then bought at $550, then sold at $1000, then bought at $700, then sold at $1250, you'd have $145,000.

If you took your $25K and bought the mining index in 2000, sold in 2008, then bought it back in 2008, you'd have $750,000.

[Sparky]

The gold will be bought by all those people trying to avoid becoming J6P.

The price of gold went from $700 to $1250 during the year all this struggling was going on. How'd that happen?

I'm glad to hear all the doubting from gold supporters. We're right on track.

[oldmansmith]

Right on Sparky. Joe 6 Pack will buy plasma tee-vees until he can't; he doesn't have any money, only credit. But there are TONS of what I consider "Rich" people with hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars in bonds and CD's who own ZERO gold. They can't all buy even some without gold going way up.

I'm holding and still adding a 1/2 ounce here and there if I can slip it by Mrs. Old. Don't get bucked off this ride too early, or at most sell some and hold on tight to the rest.

[Phoenix]

I don't think you will get rich by holding PMs.


You're not supposed to...it's supposed to help you defeat inflation, retaining the value put in.

[Phoenix]

Another thing, it doesn't matter how Joe and Jane in America are doing, PM's are a global market and much bigger than most people realize...somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 Trillion Dollar A Year Market! That is a lot of liquidity.

America is shedding power and Asia is absorbing it. If you have PM's, there are plenty of people around the globe who will be glad to have it.


Which is why the regime will establish even tougher measures on American wealth leaving the USA.

[Phoenix]

There are two opposing forces at work vis-a-vis silver/gold prices: inflation versus deflation. No one knows which one will prevail though monetary historians say that the ultimate endpoint is currency collapse and devaluation to worthlessness.
...

In all of history, has deflation ever won this battle?


The common folk always lose, that's the only constant. During the "Great" Depression, deflation in the money supply available for the common American ground the little people into the dirt.

[Phoenix]

I don't think anyone has ever recommended one to buy metals as an investment but rather for wealth preservation.
...


Sure, lots of people have. Including here. Including me.

It's much harder though.
If you started with $25,000 and bought gold at $250, then sold at $730, then bought at $550, then sold at $1000, then bought at $700, then sold at $1250, you'd have $145,000.

If you took your $25K and bought the mining index in 2000, sold in 2008, then bought it back in 2008, you'd have $750,000.


You could've done the same with the Wall Street Casino. It's gambling in any case. Gold and silver are wealth preservation, and only secondarily, a potential means to increase wealth.

[StackerKen]

I don't think you will get rich by holding PMs.


You're not supposed...it's supposed to help you defeat inflation, retaining the value put in.


+K

http://www.ladderconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/7411702xsmall-thumbs-up-web.jpg

[Half Sense]

The banksters are looking for weak hands again. Nothing has changed, except the noose got a little tighter around their necks. Their manipulations are less effective each time. Be strong and patient.

[EE_]

i've been hearing for years that "when j6p and the public" start buying ag + au because of loss of faith in fiat that that's the point it'll "go to the moon."

yet every day i see, watch, read anything related to the economy, it appears to me as if j6p is unemployed, overextended, and broke. i keep trying to figure out where j6p is going to come up with money to buy silver rounds + bars of au.

i am a true believer in PMs and have a lot, but i am starting to become an official doubter of this scenario. i'm starting to think it'll always be worth around what it is now. anyone who can afford to buy it already has.

Let me see if I can help you out...
First of all you should be buying not for a loss of faith in the dollar but as a hedge or loss of faith against a corrupt government.
Secondly, J6p that is overextended, and broke...is going to die fighting in the streets.
Third, we are looking at an epic crash in government coming. And along with it will be a banking crash and everything else connected.
Gold and silver will be the only safe haven in this shitstorm.
Don't lose faith or the strong hand to hang on to thousands of years of history.

[gunDriller]

Which is why the regime will establish even tougher measures on American wealth leaving the USA.


they already have a pretty tough law on currency controls related to gold and maybe silver.

the law for the US is to collect un-taxed gains when people leave the country with gold.

if you don't have receipts, they consider the full un-taxed value to be the profit, and tax accordingly.

e.g. if you leave the country with a 1 ounce gold maple that is worth $1200, the US gov. will try to collect $336 from you at the border, if you don't have paperwork that establishes your cost.

this sounds to me like you have to travel with a folder cabinet full of receipts for any PM's in your possession - or something.

i am pretty sure that is the law. please correct me if i mis-understand it. i would love to get some clarification on this.

[Sparky]

I don't think anyone has ever recommended one to buy metals as an investment but rather for wealth preservation.
...


Sure, lots of people have. Including here. Including me.

It's much harder though.
If you started with $25,000 and bought gold at $250, then sold at $730, then bought at $550, then sold at $1000, then bought at $700, then sold at $1250, you'd have $145,000.

If you took your $25K and bought the mining index in 2000, sold in 2008, then bought it back in 2008, you'd have $750,000.


You could've done the same with the Wall Street Casino. It's gambling in any case. Gold and silver are wealth preservation, and only secondarily, a potential means to increase wealth.


Yes, you could have. I'm saying in addition to wealth preservation, there's a home run opportunity which has already half played out. And yes it's gambling. But I think the gamble is knowing when to get out. At some point, buying silver and gold will be like buying internet stocks in 2000 and houses in 2005. At that point, it will NOT be wealth preservation. It will be wealth redistribution in the OTHER direction. But I agree that it is currently very good for wealth preservation. I just don't think it's fair to dismiss it as a speculative opportunity.

[Trinity]

Another thing, it doesn't matter how Joe and Jane in America are doing, PM's are a global market and much bigger than most people realize...somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 Trillion Dollar A Year Market! That is a lot of liquidity.

America is shedding power and Asia is absorbing it. If you have PM's, there are plenty of people around the globe who will be glad to have it.


Agreed. Gold and Silver don't give a dam if Joe and Jane Doe have no money.

[gunDriller]

Agreed. Gold and Silver don't give a dam if Joe and Jane Doe have no money.


actually, my PM's are quite concerned about the homeless problem. :o

[Book]

actually, my PM's are quite concerned about the homeless problem. :o



http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZbumhuu7YpTHdP4DBouW6PEM90Ensp OBC7v7iqghizSIULRQ&t=1&usg=__deBk1aUVRdh2IcoQUFIGKquAmeU=

Mine too. Beans, bullets, and band-aids will be worth much more than shiny metal. The notion that our starving neighbors will peacefully witness our apparent well-fedness as we stroll back and forth to the PM Dealer is delusional:

http://www.filmforum.org/films/lean/Dr_Zhivago_1965_9.jpg

:o