When Ted Butler says he is 100% Bullish on Silver - What's That Mean ?

[gunDriller]

I was listening to this weekend's metals wrap-up with Ted Butler

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/7/24_Ted_Butler_on_the_Metals_Market_files/Metals%20Wrap%20Ted%20Butler%207%3A24%3A2010.mp3

He says he is "100% Bullish" on silver.

Does that mean he thinks the price is as low as it's ever going to be - or just that he thinks its wise to buy it ?

He talks about the price of gold having to fall a bit in order for him to be 100% bullish on Gold. So he does sort of imply that there is a correlation between the price being at a low point (for 2010) and his amount of bullishness.

Anyway, he doesn't return my emails* so I thought I'd ask you guys !


* probably because I don't have his email address ;D

[Quixote2]

Who knows. I take 100% bullish on silver to mean he is "all in" with 100% of his investment portfolio in silver. If he is partially diversified in cash, gold, etc. (which I assume he is), then he is not 100% bullish.

[gunDriller]

Who knows. I take 100% bullish on silver to mean he is "all in" with 100% of his investment portfolio in silver. If he is partially diversified in cash, gold, etc. (which I assume he is), then he is not 100% bullish.


in terms of how that translates as a buying policy, we have the question of "buy at $18" vs. "Buy at $17.50", since that has been managed a few times lately.

so if he's all-in at $18.11 or whatever it is, that implies that he thinks it's wise not to wait for a possible savings. e.g. if you were thinking about buying a 100 Silver Eagles, buy them now, which means paying about $20.29 each.
http://www.providentmetals.com/2010-american-silver-eagle-brilliant-uncirculated.html

... instead of waiting for them to fall to $18 or $19 each, if we have the price depression in silver and gold that Jim Puplava seems to be expecting for the second half of 2010.

i use Puplava as a reference because he's a big metal investor and understands the markets pretty well. He put away a ton of silver back in 2008, he was talking about, bought it near the low.


i guess you can't put words in Ted Butler's mouth. if he's "all-in" and someone wants to emulate his investing philosophy, it means buy now, don't wait for a theoretical $1 or $2 drop. i think that's what it means.

[1970 silver art]

To me it means that he has all of his money in silver and he thinks that it will take off like a rocket and go to "Da Moon". ;D

[1970 silver art]

Who knows. I take 100% bullish on silver to mean he is "all in" with 100% of his investment portfolio in silver. If he is partially diversified in cash, gold, etc. (which I assume he is), then he is not 100% bullish.


in terms of how that translates as a buying policy, we have the question of "buy at $18" vs. "Buy at $17.50", since that has been managed a few times lately.

so if he's all-in at $18.11 or whatever it is, that implies that he thinks it's wise not to wait for a possible savings. e.g. if you were thinking about buying a 100 Silver Eagles, buy them now, which means paying about $20.29 each.
http://www.providentmetals.com/2010-american-silver-eagle-brilliant-uncirculated.html

... instead of waiting for them to fall to $18 or $19 each, if we have the price depression in silver and gold that Jim Puplava seems to be expecting for the second half of 2010.

i use Puplava as a reference because he's a big metal investor and understands the markets pretty well. He put away a ton of silver back in 2008, he was talking about, bought it near the low.


i guess you can't put words in Ted Butler's mouth. if he's "all-in" and someone wants to emulate his investing philosophy, it means buy now, don't wait for a theoretical $1 or $2 drop. i think that's what it means.


I think that it could mean that. If a person is "100% Bullish" on silver, then that means to me that silver will not drop back to, for example, $15.00. He might be saying that silver will break $20 and never look back. Who really knows?

However, it might be a "bear-ish" indicator depending on how many people are "100% bullish" on silver If he (and a few others) are the only ones saying this, then it might truly be a bullish indicator for silver. If everybody from the CNBC "chick" to the Wal-Mart greeter think that silver is a great buy and they are "100% Bullish" on silver, then that would sound like a "bear-ish" indicator for silver.

[gunDriller]

However, it might be a "bear-ish" indicator depending on how many people are "100% bullish" on silver If he (and a few others) are the only ones saying this, then it might truly be a bullish indicator for silver. If everybody from the CNBC "chick" to the Wal-Mart greeter think that silver is a great buy and they are "100% Bullish" on silver, then that would sound like a "bear-ish" indicator for silver.


true. it's very different when Ted Butler says it than when J6P says it. although there are some pretty smart J6P's out there.

the numbers i see for percentage of the population that invests in precious metals is teeny, less than a percent. the thought of 10% of the investing public getting into the act is almost disconcerting, that would be a big change.

but i guess in the financial world the total $ numbers traded indicate more something - somebody's buying all that paper gold ! ;D

e.g. $5.4 Billion gold derivatives traded annually on the LBMA (there is a "net" number and a "gross" number for the total LBMA trading number, i think $5.4 Trillion is the net number).

[hallowendesh]

I hope the sell-off in metals that made you think about how you perceive gold and silver as investments. It was not just a correction, it was a massacre by the paper short sharks who call themselves commercials.

[mamboni]

Ted Butler has been hawking silver as investment of the millenium to the common man since it was $4 just a decade ago. Today, silver is $28+ and has touched $30. I think this price performance speaks for itself. The man did his homework and bravely drew the logical conclusions that silver was vastly underowned and had wildly bullish fundamentals when virtually everyone else had dismissed silver as investment. It takes a lot of guts to be the first in anything, especially when it goes against the conventional wisdom. If Butler is still bullish on silver, then that's good enough for me.

[osoab]

I hope the sell-off in metals that made you think about how you perceive gold and silver as investments. It was not just a correction, it was a massacre by the paper short sharks who call themselves commercials.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4

[mamboni]

Quantitative Easing and Relative Asset Performance From 2008: Gold, Silver, SP 500, US Dollar

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/TUXRWSgpj0I/AAAAAAAAPuo/bDy1xlNhr5U/s640/goldsilversp.png

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/01/relative-asset-performance-from-january.html

[bellevuebully]

Ted Butler has been hawking silver as investment of the millenium to the common man since it was $4 just a decade ago. Today, silver is $28+ and has touched $30. I think this price performance speaks for itself. The man did his homework and bravely drew the logical conclusions that silver was vastly underowned and had wildly bullish fundamentals when virtually everyone else had dismissed silver as investment. It takes a lot of guts to be the first in anything, especially when it goes against the conventional wisdom. If Butler is still bullish on silver, then that's good enough for me.


My wife and I owned an internet cafe about a decade ago. I'd come in from working in the field and stop by and wait for her to finish up and I would log on....I think I read every article that guy wrote around that time. He always focused on fundementals, fundementals, fundementals. Glad I paid attention to him.

One more thing that I realize looking back.......he wasn't selling anything, he was just providing information to the uninformed. Rare to say the least.

Thanks Mr. Butler, for all your hard work, wherever you are.