mamboni
30th July 2010, 07:06 AM
Kindergarten Double Dip Economics
29 July 2010, 10:32 pm
By Jim Willie, CB / goldenjackass.com —
Double Dip used to pertain to ice cream cones, but now to dreaded return to economic recession. Green Shoots used to refer to gardening projects, then to deceptive economic viewpoints. My favorite is the second half recovery mantra, indicative of totally clueless. This year’s promised recovery in the second half of the year will feature a return to recession instead, thus stripping mainstream economists of any remaining credibility. The endless links in the chain are impressive by the clueless cast of economists that disgrace the US landscape. The chain of ignominy includes gaping blind spots, blatantly wrong forecasts, minimized ignitions that spread crisis, misguided focus on goofy indicators, outright removal of important indicators, sloppy deception of monetization efforts (see last week’s article), clumsy justification of Wall Street welfare, backwards perception of Too Big To Fail banks, and lying before the USCongress. The nation is dominated by fools who profess the lasting benefits of ‘Hand to Mouth’ approaches like tax rebates, purchase credits, jobless insurance extensions, and helicopter drops. Their worst investments are their biggest investments, like Fannie Mae and AIG nationalizations travesties. Harken back only to last winter, when economists were talking about a second half recovery, running all the red lights and stop signs. Then they shifted the klapptrapp to claims of a jobless recovery, which should evoke laughter from its impossibility. The economic counsel has forgotten what capital formation means, while they prepare for their next tourniquet to be applied to hemorrhages. The objective of monetary policy and banking policy is not recovery, but instead very clearly to retain power.
DUMBEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
Pay homage to the dumbest guys in the room. Tip the hat to morons at the helm. Genuflect to the high priests of failure. The cast of economists in charge, if truth be known, includes Robert Rubin in the background as Wizard of Oz. He pulls the strings with his puppets Tim Geithner from the Treasury Secy post and Larry Summers from the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Neither puppet has anything remotely resembling a successful banking or economist resumé. Bring in USFed Chairman Ben Bernanke who has no business experience, a few key regional Fed Presidents, and you have the dumbest guys in the room. They might as well read tea leaves, tarot cards, chicken bones, and animal entrails. If they had any skill whatsoever, they would notice the nasty economic signals delivered by basic data. Take some examples. Check federal income tax withholdings from payrolls, state sales tax receipts, trucker miles logged, total volume of electricity usage, and food stamps. They all scream recession for the USEconomy. Merely pointing to stimulus funds, state budget plugs, liquidity programs, mortgage redemptions, and expanded central bank balance sheets totally miss the mark on effective economic craft. Their blindness to the economic distress is only exceeded by their disdain and contempt for the public. Before long it will be illegal to be wealthy unless a card carrying member of the financial syndicate that wields tyranny.
GOLDEN CHAMPAGNE FOR THE QE2 LAUNCH
Before launching into graphic exercises, bear in mind that for 18 months, the United States has operated with a near 0% official interest rate. As forecasted a full year ago, the 0% rate has become a permanent fixture, since this is NOT a normal credit cycle. My open disrespect and criticism has been directed at the short-sighted gnome occupying the USFed Chairman post, who babbled moronically about an Exit Strategy a few months ago. My rebuttal claimed that no such exit from the current 0% strategy is available to the Bernanke, and more grand monetizations were to be come. Now we see no exit strategy door is offered, rather a stuck condition as the USFed has painted itself in the corner. A close inspection of the trap door under which Ben sits has staircase attached to it, the Third World.
Talk has returned of a renewed Quantitative Easing cycle. The monetization engines in full usage would be put on stage in full view. The Bernanke track record is nearly perfect, nothing correct on forecasts, no effective outcomes, steady focus on the silly measures, lies given to the USCongress. The benefit to the financial syndicate on Wall Street is the only priority of monetary policy makers. The USFed and USCongress are are stuck, forced to curtail an explosion of money for political reasons. Unfortunately for the USEconomy, the recession that will turn from the steady decline into a galloping decline at a time when the USFed cannot lower interest rates. The USFed is out of tools except massive monetary inflation. Imagine, 18 months of 0% has done nothing to jumpstart the growth of the nation. The USGovt is saddled with annual $1.5 trillion deficits, that do not cause much alarm anymore. Why should it? Nothing has been done in financial reform, bank asset liquidation, financial audit of the major banks (including the central bank), business regulation streamline, tax relief, end of endless war, reduction of lobby influence, Goldman Sachs stranglehold of the USDept Treasury, or anything else that truly counts. During this next downturn, the policy failure will be more obvious, the failed central bank franchise system will be more obvious, and the ruined currency system will be more obvious. The absence of policy options will be more apparent to all. Only dispensing printed money will be offered in response. The failure of 0% to produce a revival is indirect proof that easy money was the cause of the banking collapse and credit crisis, and therefore cannot serve as the main tool toward remedy.
David Rosenberg is one of several rare economists with adept skill and razor sharp focus who is not fooled by the mainstream drivel. He recently wrote, “You also know it is a depression when a year into a statistical recovery, the central bank is still openly contemplating ways to stimulate growth. The Fed was supposed to have already started the process of shrinking its pregnant balance sheet four months ago, and is now instead thinking of restarting Quantitative Easing.†He is too much a gentleman to call Bernanke an idiot or hack or tool or faculty groupie. When QE2 is launched, the confidence in the Bernanke Fed will hit rock bottom. The pain will be delivered to the USDollar and USTreasury Bonds, which by then will only have buyers from the Printing Pre$$ output. Even Bill Gross of PIMCO shows doubt that the current course will avert a Double Dip recession.
Jim Grant joins the chorus of the enlightened within the financial industry, as he expects another powerful round of monetary easing. He is confident of QE2 right around the corner in a second launch. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard seconds the opinion. They see how the temporary lull in extreme monetary inflation tied to the economic stall leave the USFed only one choice, more Quantitative Easing. The first round involved $2.5 trillion. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard expects the next round to be coordinated $5 trillion global initiative. Vast monetization of debt and sustained stimulus & rescue with phony electronic money backed by debt are the only options left to central bankers, fast out of tools, naked on stage. Endless crutch support is their constant refrain, their glory epitaph. When money is again openly printed with utter abandon, under official blessing, that is bad for the monetary system. USEconomic decline will worsen from the assault on legitimate capital. That will amplify attention to fast debased debauched currencies, and push upward the price of Gold. The next QE2 round will send the Gold price to $2000 amidst a totally new darkened atmosphere of broad systemic failure.
(cont'd)
29 July 2010, 10:32 pm
By Jim Willie, CB / goldenjackass.com —
Double Dip used to pertain to ice cream cones, but now to dreaded return to economic recession. Green Shoots used to refer to gardening projects, then to deceptive economic viewpoints. My favorite is the second half recovery mantra, indicative of totally clueless. This year’s promised recovery in the second half of the year will feature a return to recession instead, thus stripping mainstream economists of any remaining credibility. The endless links in the chain are impressive by the clueless cast of economists that disgrace the US landscape. The chain of ignominy includes gaping blind spots, blatantly wrong forecasts, minimized ignitions that spread crisis, misguided focus on goofy indicators, outright removal of important indicators, sloppy deception of monetization efforts (see last week’s article), clumsy justification of Wall Street welfare, backwards perception of Too Big To Fail banks, and lying before the USCongress. The nation is dominated by fools who profess the lasting benefits of ‘Hand to Mouth’ approaches like tax rebates, purchase credits, jobless insurance extensions, and helicopter drops. Their worst investments are their biggest investments, like Fannie Mae and AIG nationalizations travesties. Harken back only to last winter, when economists were talking about a second half recovery, running all the red lights and stop signs. Then they shifted the klapptrapp to claims of a jobless recovery, which should evoke laughter from its impossibility. The economic counsel has forgotten what capital formation means, while they prepare for their next tourniquet to be applied to hemorrhages. The objective of monetary policy and banking policy is not recovery, but instead very clearly to retain power.
DUMBEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
Pay homage to the dumbest guys in the room. Tip the hat to morons at the helm. Genuflect to the high priests of failure. The cast of economists in charge, if truth be known, includes Robert Rubin in the background as Wizard of Oz. He pulls the strings with his puppets Tim Geithner from the Treasury Secy post and Larry Summers from the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Neither puppet has anything remotely resembling a successful banking or economist resumé. Bring in USFed Chairman Ben Bernanke who has no business experience, a few key regional Fed Presidents, and you have the dumbest guys in the room. They might as well read tea leaves, tarot cards, chicken bones, and animal entrails. If they had any skill whatsoever, they would notice the nasty economic signals delivered by basic data. Take some examples. Check federal income tax withholdings from payrolls, state sales tax receipts, trucker miles logged, total volume of electricity usage, and food stamps. They all scream recession for the USEconomy. Merely pointing to stimulus funds, state budget plugs, liquidity programs, mortgage redemptions, and expanded central bank balance sheets totally miss the mark on effective economic craft. Their blindness to the economic distress is only exceeded by their disdain and contempt for the public. Before long it will be illegal to be wealthy unless a card carrying member of the financial syndicate that wields tyranny.
GOLDEN CHAMPAGNE FOR THE QE2 LAUNCH
Before launching into graphic exercises, bear in mind that for 18 months, the United States has operated with a near 0% official interest rate. As forecasted a full year ago, the 0% rate has become a permanent fixture, since this is NOT a normal credit cycle. My open disrespect and criticism has been directed at the short-sighted gnome occupying the USFed Chairman post, who babbled moronically about an Exit Strategy a few months ago. My rebuttal claimed that no such exit from the current 0% strategy is available to the Bernanke, and more grand monetizations were to be come. Now we see no exit strategy door is offered, rather a stuck condition as the USFed has painted itself in the corner. A close inspection of the trap door under which Ben sits has staircase attached to it, the Third World.
Talk has returned of a renewed Quantitative Easing cycle. The monetization engines in full usage would be put on stage in full view. The Bernanke track record is nearly perfect, nothing correct on forecasts, no effective outcomes, steady focus on the silly measures, lies given to the USCongress. The benefit to the financial syndicate on Wall Street is the only priority of monetary policy makers. The USFed and USCongress are are stuck, forced to curtail an explosion of money for political reasons. Unfortunately for the USEconomy, the recession that will turn from the steady decline into a galloping decline at a time when the USFed cannot lower interest rates. The USFed is out of tools except massive monetary inflation. Imagine, 18 months of 0% has done nothing to jumpstart the growth of the nation. The USGovt is saddled with annual $1.5 trillion deficits, that do not cause much alarm anymore. Why should it? Nothing has been done in financial reform, bank asset liquidation, financial audit of the major banks (including the central bank), business regulation streamline, tax relief, end of endless war, reduction of lobby influence, Goldman Sachs stranglehold of the USDept Treasury, or anything else that truly counts. During this next downturn, the policy failure will be more obvious, the failed central bank franchise system will be more obvious, and the ruined currency system will be more obvious. The absence of policy options will be more apparent to all. Only dispensing printed money will be offered in response. The failure of 0% to produce a revival is indirect proof that easy money was the cause of the banking collapse and credit crisis, and therefore cannot serve as the main tool toward remedy.
David Rosenberg is one of several rare economists with adept skill and razor sharp focus who is not fooled by the mainstream drivel. He recently wrote, “You also know it is a depression when a year into a statistical recovery, the central bank is still openly contemplating ways to stimulate growth. The Fed was supposed to have already started the process of shrinking its pregnant balance sheet four months ago, and is now instead thinking of restarting Quantitative Easing.†He is too much a gentleman to call Bernanke an idiot or hack or tool or faculty groupie. When QE2 is launched, the confidence in the Bernanke Fed will hit rock bottom. The pain will be delivered to the USDollar and USTreasury Bonds, which by then will only have buyers from the Printing Pre$$ output. Even Bill Gross of PIMCO shows doubt that the current course will avert a Double Dip recession.
Jim Grant joins the chorus of the enlightened within the financial industry, as he expects another powerful round of monetary easing. He is confident of QE2 right around the corner in a second launch. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard seconds the opinion. They see how the temporary lull in extreme monetary inflation tied to the economic stall leave the USFed only one choice, more Quantitative Easing. The first round involved $2.5 trillion. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard expects the next round to be coordinated $5 trillion global initiative. Vast monetization of debt and sustained stimulus & rescue with phony electronic money backed by debt are the only options left to central bankers, fast out of tools, naked on stage. Endless crutch support is their constant refrain, their glory epitaph. When money is again openly printed with utter abandon, under official blessing, that is bad for the monetary system. USEconomic decline will worsen from the assault on legitimate capital. That will amplify attention to fast debased debauched currencies, and push upward the price of Gold. The next QE2 round will send the Gold price to $2000 amidst a totally new darkened atmosphere of broad systemic failure.
(cont'd)