Bevare! Do not get snagged by bear trap rally!!!

[mamboni]

August 3, 2010 - 'Daily Growth Index' Turns Sharply Down:

http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html

Excerpt:

We have said before that one measure of the pain caused by an economic contraction is the area between the respective event lines in the above chart and the gray '0.0%' horizontal line. By this measure the current contraction is over two and a half times as severe as the 2006 event and nearly half as bad as the 'Great Recession' (which had returned to net 'Daily Growth Index' growth after 220 days).

And a glance at the above chart tells us that the 2010 contraction is figuratively in 'uncharted' territory, behaving very unlike either 2006 or 2008. After nearly 200 days of contraction, the 2010 event is now less than a month from surpassing the 'Great Recession' in longevity, with no end in sight.

http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_dailygrowthindexvsgdp.png

http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_contraction_watch.png

http://www.consumerindexes.com/weighted_composite.png

http://www.consumerindexes.com/weekly_trailing_91-day_percentiles.png

http://www.consumerindexes.com/housing.png

http://www.consumerindexes.com/weekly_home_loans.png

Mamboni comments: the leading indicators are screaming double-dip recession, which means that the current DOW is in a bear trap rally. To quote Bela: "Bevare! Take care."

[jaybone]

I'm looking to get short whenever my balls manage to turn to steel.

[mamboni]

I'm looking to get short whenever my balls manage to turn to steel.


I always say: "Listen to your balls!"

[Sparky]

I shorted the energy sector this morning. Let's see if my balls know what they're talking about.