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View Full Version : FOFOA "Squares the Circle" on Confiscation



Ragnarok
13th August 2010, 08:22 AM
A good read and a breath of fresh air for the Thoughtful gold holder:

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/08/confiscation-anatomy-part-2.html

Snip:

"So it was the US dollar’s fixed relationship to gold and the dollar’s use as an international bank reserve, equally interchangeable with gold, that caused a “shortage of REAL money.” And as we’ll see, this would happen again and again.

FDR’s confiscation and revaluation of gold did not increase its use as money as the solution to the money shortage. What it did was increase the percentage of the official US gold hoard as a portion of total US reserves to a level that would sustain centralized balance of payment clearing for a few more decades. In essence, it restocked the one-way gold market known as the international gold exchange standard. Gold is always a one-way flow (out) when the price is fixed. That’s why to get any “in-flow”, you have to force it!
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Sidebar: I am certainly not defending the actions of FDR. They were obviously hideous. But I am making the point that it is extremely important to view history as objectively as possible when deducing the future. Otherwise you inadvertently end up applying inductive reasoning, which leads to qualitatively different conclusions than deductive logic. Chicken Little used inductive logic.

Here is an example of inductive reasoning/logic:

1. All of the swans we have seen so far are white.
2. Therefore, all swans are white.

It is a form of logic that allows for a false conclusion even when the premises are correct.

Now here’s an example of deductive reasoning:

1. All fiat currencies are eventually worth no more than toilet paper.
2. The dollar is a fiat currency.
3. Therefore, the dollar will eventually be worth no more than toilet paper.

The difference is that deductive reasoning presents a conclusion that must necessarily follow the set of premises. Inductive reasoning, the kind that leads to fears of confiscation, does not.

I always try my best to engage only in deductive logic, because I don't like surprises.
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In hindsight, if FDR had instead declared the US gold window to be a two-way (buy and sell) physical gold exchange, open to all, not at a fixed price, but instead at a global market-discovered floating gold price, the economic and monetary results would have been the same, only without the nasty confiscation and repulsive criminal penalties… and it would have been perpetually sustainable."

Much more at link.
fyi, R.

mamboni
13th August 2010, 09:42 PM
Excellent read - well worth the time and effort.

Personally, I've never taken the threat of a national gold siezure seriously:

1. it is a rather crude and trogloditic solution
2. it would be logistically treacherous, given the incredible speed of financial and price equilibria in today's internet marketplace versus the snail's pace of a gold confiscation
3. any siezure of unallocated paper gold holdings would do more harm than good as it would cause a systemic paralysis of gold price discovery
4. it would invite open civil rebellion.

No, government will not be able to "hold" gold. Gold is the ultimate international reserve currency and it will spank the Anglo-America dollar cartel in short order. When the bond market collapses and the dollar is fully rejected as the de facto world reserve currency, US government hegemony will end and America will be forced onto a gold budget or starve for lack of essential imports, expecially crude oil.