Silver Phase Transistion [Archive]

Serpo

24th November 2010, 01:46 PM

Interview With Theodore Butler

By: James Cook & Theodore Butler

Cook: For the past ten years you have been claiming that silver was the best thing people could own. How do you feel now with silver around $25 an ounce?
Butler: I have a sense of relief that I could not possibly have hurt anyone who followed my advice. I also feel intellectually vindicated about the way things are turning out. Lastly, I feel amazed how good silver still looks for further gains.
Cook: How high could it climb?
Butler: Real high, but by now you should know I shy away from specific price targets.
Cook: A lot has been going on with silver lately. Most of the things you’ve written about are starting to happen. What do you think about the recent spate of lawsuits against JPMorgan and HSBC?
Butler: It’s a big deal. The main thing is not the outcome of this case, but rather the fact that they were filed.
Cook: How many lawsuits were filed?
Butler: The latest tally is 25, I’ve been told.
Cook: Why do you think these lawsuits are important?
Butler: It is another confirmation of the growing recognition that silver has been manipulated in price.
Cook: They must be reading your newsletter because everything claimed in the first lawsuit originated with you. Do you agree?
Butler: Yes, I know that for a fact.
Cook: The basis of the lawsuit is that these big banks are short an inordinate amount of silver. How much to be exact?
Butler: It varies over time, but at the time referenced in the lawsuit, JPMorgan, either alone or with another U.S. bank, held short on the COMEX the equivalent of 25% of world annual mine production
Cook: How many ounces is that?
Butler: In most recent CFTC data, it is 150 million ounces, but within the past year it has been over 200 million ounces
Cook: You’re claiming that’s manipulative?
Butler: Absolutely. It would be impossible for such a concentrated short position not to be manipulative. It was this observation that led to the current CFTC silver investigation which, in turn, led to this lawsuit.
Cook: How many ounces are there held short in total?
Butler: The total net short position in COMEX futures is around 550 million ounces, but if you include everything, especially unbacked bank certificates and pool accounts, it grows to 2 or 3 billion ounces.
Cook: Who are these short sellers outside of the big one or two?
Butler: On the COMEX, there are about 8 commercial entities short over 300 million ounces, including the biggest.
Cook: They got squeezed pretty good when silver hit $29, didn’t they?
Butler: You bet.
Cook: How big have the losses been for the shorts?
Butler: In silver, the big 8 were out over $3 billion at the top, and more than $5 billion if you include all the shorts.
Cook: You pointed out that there had to be a lot of margin calls, when gold is included, what’s the total?
Butler: All in all, almost $15 billion.
Cook: They actually had to cough up $15 billion?
Butler: Absolutely. That’s a key component of the clearinghouse system.
Cook: Did anybody fail to make their margin calls?
Butler: It’s hard to tell.
Cook: I thought the price rise to $29 might have been because some folks couldn’t make margin calls and the brokerage firm bought back their position. No?
Butler: I’m certain there was a lot of that; they liquidate the contracts to satisfy the margin calls.
Cook: They don’t mess around do they?
Butler: This is basic commodity stuff. As a customer, if you don’t meet your margin calls your broker will liquidate your position. Otherwise the brokerage firm must eat the customer’s loss. Brokerage firms don’t allow customers a free ride. If a brokerage firm doesn’t meet its overall margin requirements to the clearinghouse, that’s a default, a real no-no.
Cook: It’s hard for me to believe that JPMorgan is sitting flatfooted waiting for the axe to fall. Don’t you think they’ve dug up a lot of silver to help reduce this short position?
Butler: I’m sure they’ve come up with as much silver as possible, but there are physical constraints to that. Their problem is not a money problem, but a physical material problem.
Cook: I see they raised margin requirements on silver. Why only silver?
Butler: Silver had moved the most and the margins should have been raised. The scandal was when they raised the margins. This is an issue of timing. They waited until prices made a downside reversal and then raised silver margins.
Cook: Is this fishy?
Butler: This is an example of why I refer to the CME Group (COMEX) as operating a criminal enterprise, as I’ve seen them pull this dirty trick numerous times in the past. The exchange times the margin increase so that it comes when it is least likely to hurt, and maybe help, its big constituent member short holders. That time is always best when the price makes a sudden reversal down after a big climb. This way, the margin increase actually hurts the longs and benefits the shorts. The reversal to the downside swings the financial tide against the longs temporarily.
Cook: What should they have done?
Butler: What they should have done is raised margins on the way up, but that would have hurt the shorts, something the exchange would never do. By timing the margin increase just after a price reversal to the downside, the exchange helps the shorts.
Cook: Are they above the law?
Butler: What’s particularly infuriating and illegal is that the exchange is designated under commodity law as a self-regulatory organization (SRO). That means the CME Group is supposed to do things on a fair and even-handed basis, not cater to the selfish interests of its most important members. The phrase that comes to mind when describing how the CME fulfills its regulatory obligations is letting the fox guard the henhouse.
Cook: How in the world did this come about?
Butler: The CFTC and Congress made a very big mistake when they turned over so much regulation to the exchanges years ago. There is a conflict of interest in what the exchange does in its regulatory role. That’s why the COMEX is fighting the CFTC tooth and nail over position limits and every other issue that may infringe on its own interests.
Cook: The Commodity Future Trading Commission has ruled that within 3 months or so they will put limits on how much one entity can be long or short. Will this break up the concentrated short position?
Butler: If they stick to the timeline dictated by the new law and if they impose legitimate limits and throw out the phony exemptions to those limits.
Cook: Won’t that set silver “free at last?”
Butler: Yes, “thank God Almighty.”
Cook: Will the COMEX back down?
Butler: I don’t think so. They know this is the one issue that can blow the lid off silver.
Cook: Silver could turn into a runaway train. Why don’t these short sellers get out of the way and cover now?
Butler: They desperately want to, but it’s easier said than done because their position is so large that they are trapped. Just covering the limited amount of shorts to date has already had a profound impact on price. Why do you think we’ve risen so much in the past few months?
Cook: One of the commissioners at the CFTC has made a number of statements criticizing the shorts and the Commodity Exchange itself. Sounds like the senior regulators have embraced your views. Do you agree?
Butler: It’s hard to reach any other conclusion.
Cook: If that’s true then position limits are inevitable would you say?
Butler: The new law has mandated position limits, so unless the law is repealed I would say they are inevitable. But more than that, it’s important to remember that position limits are of specific relevance for silver more than any other market.
Cook: What do you mean?
Butler: COMEX silver is the only market which must have position limits radically reduced from the current accountability level. In all other commodities, including gold, the level of position limits is not so important because the short position is not that large. In silver, it’s the core issue.
Cook: What kind of position limit level do we need to see in silver?
Butler: If we don’t see a new level of close to 1500 contracts, instead of the current 6000 contract level, then this market is more crooked than I have been alleging. And I would think those in the public who follow this issue closely will be outraged and demand an explanation from the regulators. I know I will be.
Cook: Is it safe to say that silver is a buy until the short position is covered?
Butler: At least until the concentrated short position is reduced.
Cook: The volume on the SLV, the exchange traded fund, went ballistic recently. How many shares were trading before this jump and what did it go to?
Butler: There was an average daily volume of close to 15 million shares a day and it jumped to ten times that on a recent trading day.
Cook: How much of that was day trading?
Butler: Close to 99%, same as in every other market.
Cook: OK, but how much silver do you think was purchased on balance and must be delivered to the SLV?
Butler: I had been guessing close to 20 million ounces, but much to BlackRock’s credit (they’re the new sponsor), the silver is being brought in much more quickly than when Barclays was the sponsor.
Cook: Where is the silver coming from?
Butler: No one knows for sure, but the hallmarks on many of the new bars being deposited were from Russia and China. I think that’s good, because as those two countries wake up to the silver manipulation, they should be unlikely to continue supplying material at artificially depressed prices.
Cook: I heard a big delivery came in to the SLV last week. True?
Butler: Yes, there was an extraordinary deposit of 11.3 million ounces into the SLV on Wednesday, November 10, the largest one day deposit in the ETF since 2006. This brings the deposits into the Trust to over 18 million ounces in little more than a week and a half, to a new record of over 344 million ounces.
Cook: Are you underestimating the amount of silver available? Seems like there is always more silver.
Butler: While it is certainly possible that I have underestimated the amount of silver bullion in the world, that is not yet evident to date. I have always estimated about one billion ounces and we haven’t grown above that amount yet. What has happened is that more silver is being transferred from unreported inventories to reported inventories. This does create the illusion that the supply of silver is endless. It is not.
Cook: How much is left in unreported inventories that can come into the market?
Butler: Unless you have Superman’s x-ray vision and can see all the world’s vaults simultaneously, there is no way to know how much is left in unreported inventories. And I guarantee that you will make yourself crazy if you persist in trying to figure out the amount remaining.
Cook: Are you still sane?
Butler: No one comes with a butterfly net.
Cook: How much is known or in the reported category?
Butler: Since 2006, more than 550 million ounces have been transferred from unreported silver into reported world inventories, including the SLV and all other similar programs. Currently there are more than 716 million ounces in total world visible silver bullion inventories. That’s a very big chunk of my long-time estimate of one billion ounces in total world inventories. The way to look at it is that there are 550 million ounces less that can be transferred in the future. The long-term rise in price would seem to confirm my thinking.
Cook: Could the big shorts be buying the SLV to cover their short position?
Butler: Sure, but not to excessive amounts, as that would require lying to the SEC on ownership disclosure regulations. That’s not likely.
Cook: How much silver do you think JPMorgan and one other bank are short?
Butler: As of this moment, I’m guessing JPM may now be below 25,000 contracts. That’s 125 million ounces. But we won’t know for sure until more CFTC data are released.
Cook: How about the big eight shorts?
Butler: My guess is they are down to 56,000 contracts. That’s 280 million ounces.
Cook: How about all the shorts combined?
Butler: In COMEX futures total, I’d guess a bit under 500 million.
Cook: How does that compare with other commodities?
Butler: Still way off the charts when comparing paper contracts to real world production and inventories.
Cook: Do you see this leading to a price explosion in silver soon?
Butler: It’s one of several things that will lead to an explosion.
Cook: How does the silver short position compare to gold?
Butler: The silver short position is much bigger than gold in every measurement, especially compared to world inventories. Silver’s relative short position is more than 100 times larger than gold’s.
Cook: Do you think silver will outperform gold?
Butler: Yes. Silver has yet to leave gold in the dust, although it has fully matched or exceeded gold’s price performance. That is actually an advantage to those gold investors who have yet to make the switch into silver. It’s not too late.
Cook: Are you suggesting a switch now?
Butler: Yes. The facts suggest silver will outperform gold in the future, the logical investment action would be to convert gold into silver. Not because gold is likely to go down necessarily, but because silver is likely to offer better investment bang for the same buck.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1290625106.php

Serpo

24th November 2010, 01:46 PM

Cook: Have people begun to switch?
Butler: There has been a noticeable shift to physical silver investment demand, perhaps from gold investors, although I still believe it’s in the early stages. Additionally, U.S. Mint sales of Silver Eagles are particularly strong relative to Gold Eagle sales, further confirming what may be a growing investor preference for silver over gold. Given how little silver exists compared to gold, if this trend continues, the influence on silver prices should be profound.
Cook: What’s the gold-silver ratio now?
Butler: The gold/silver ratio narrowed to almost 52. This is the best relative reading for silver since the summer of 2008, just before the price of silver was manipulated lower by JPMorgan and other commercial crooks on the COMEX.
Cook: You’ve got big cahunas calling JPMorgan a crook over and over again. Ever hear from their lawyers?
Butler: Not a peep and I send every article I write in which I mention JPMorgan to Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and to the top regulatory officials at the CME, in addition to the CFTC.
Cook: I wonder why they haven’t sued you. If someone was calling my company crooked I think I would at least have my lawyer send them a letter.
Butler: Look, I’m not looking to get sued, but I don’t know of any other way to flush these weasels out. I know that JPM and the CME are operating as a criminal enterprise when it comes to silver.
Cook: What about the COMEX? You’ve been calling them sleazy for years. Have you ever received an answer to the numerous letters you’ve sent them?
Butler: Up until a few years ago, they would respond from time to time, but more recently they’ve been hiding behind the CFTC’s skirt and letting the Commission do their dirty work.
Cook: Yes, but now I see the COMEX has been in bitter disagreement with the CFTC on position limits. Why are they so opposed?
Butler: It may indicate that the CFTC, under Gary Gensler, is sick of the exchange using the CFTC. The reason the CME is so opposed to position limits is because of silver, not any other commodity. Don’t be fooled into thinking this isn’t a silver-specific issue.
Cook: Why only silver?
Butler: This is an important point. There is no position limit problem in any other commodity apart from silver. Not in oil, or grains or gold. Just silver. It’s the dirty secret that’s about to be revealed.
Cook: How much money have the banks made over the years with this big short position in silver?
Butler: Cumulatively, it could be billions of dollars.
Cook: This gravy train has suppressed the price, right?
Butler: Yes. The concentrated short position makes it impossible for the price not to have been suppressed.
Cook: If the market gets free of the concentrated short position it should revert to the true market price. Any idea what that is?
Butler: I’ll let the market tell us, but much higher than we’ve been in silver.
Cook: Do you think it will overshoot?
Butler: I think it’s impossible for it not to overshoot.
Cook: You think that Chairman Gensler at the CFTC is a straight shooter, right?
Butler: I think he walks on water. I may be dead wrong, but I’m a pretty good judge of human character.
Cook: Will he cure the silver mess?
Butler: If he follows the law and what he knows to be right.
Cook: Is he more competent than prior chiefs?
Butler: Gensler is the smartest guy in any room. It would be an insult to compare him to any former chairman or chairwoman.
Cook: Do you still claim the CFTC has looked the other way?
Butler: They have in the past, but I sense that is changing.
Cook: I think they hate your guts. Nobody’s been in their face with solid accusations like you have. Are they still hostile?
Butler: Hard to tell. I’m not concerned with past feelings. I don’t see why they would still be hostile; I offer constructive solutions where nobody else does. If they are hostile to anyone it should be towards those responsible for the manipulation, like JPMorgan and CME.
Cook: You’ve been the pioneer of virtually every new revelation about silver for over a decade. Just about everything that you predicted has come to pass. You’ve been a great conceptual thinker on silver and the premier whistleblower. Do you think the CFTC will ever acknowledge this and give you the award you deserve?
Butler: I sure hope so, but you’d have to ask them.
Cook: Everybody and his brother is writing about silver now. Some of it is amateurish and the good stuff originated with you. However, most of these articles never give credit to you. Do you agree that this is dishonorable?
Butler: Yes.
Cook: These organizations and individuals are trying to elbow themselves into position to take credit for your work. I’ve never seen anything like it, have you?
Butler: No.
Cook: What do you make of it?
Butler: Those that plagiarize are stealing my stuff and then lying by pretending they thought up my ideas. I’d avoid such people with a ten-foot pole.
Cook: They need to at least mention you if you are the source of their information. Right?
Butler: I think so.
Cook: Let’s change directions. What about COMEX silver inventories? What’s going on with them?
Butler: Recently, COMEX warehouse inventories dropped to near four year lows, at just under 108 million ounces. This drop, importantly, was accompanied with great turnover (in and out movements); highly suggestive of tightness and that the inventory is held in strong hands.
Cook: What’s the historical perspective on this?
Butler: COMEX silver inventories are down 60% from the 280 million ounce peak in the mid-1990’s. In contrast, COMEX gold inventories are at a record high of over 11.3 million ounces, the highest in the 45 year history of the COMEX. This is an apples to apples comparison, as the COMEX is the dominant market for both gold and silver trading.
Cook: Are we in a shortage?
Butler: I think we are in the early stages of a silver shortage that is bound to grow more severe.
Cook: Won’t this cause a surge in mining production?
Butler: Sure, eventually. But any mining increase in response to higher silver prices will take many years to hit the market. It’s not like flipping a light switch.
Cook: You’ve mentioned three things that will drive up the price of silver. It looks like one of them, investment demand, is kicking in. Will it get bigger than this?
Butler: I think that’s a certainty, as more people are waking up to the silver story.
Cook: Your second bullish factor is industrial demand. Do you still expect industrial users to panic because of a shortage?
Butler: Ever see what’s left in a supermarket after a hurricane warning?
Cook: Where does the price of silver burn itself out if a buying panic occurs?
Butler: Use your imagination. Then double it.
Cook: Your final and biggest bullish factor is the end of the concentrated short position. What will this do?
Butler: Terminating the concentrated short position will end the decades-old manipulation itself. That will bring about an honest and free market.
Cook: How will they cover the short position?
Butler: By buying back the position, delivering against it or by defaulting on it.
Cook: What about going forward? What will no big short sellers mean for the future?
Butler: It will be a different world price-wise.
Cook: According to the CFTC, the deadline for position limits is just over 2 months. Is silver a ticking time bomb until then?
Butler: Silver is a ticking time bomb for many reasons and the coming open debate on position limits is one of them.
Cook: The shorts are going to have to buy back futures aren’t they?
Butler: At some point, the shorts buying back is the post plausible outcome, as the only other choices are to deliver metal or default.
Cook: How many more shorts other than JPMorgan will have to cover?
Butler: My guess is somewhere around 15 to 20 thousand, a 75 to 100 million ounce equivalent.
Cook: Am I missing something or is this a lock?
Butler: If you mean much higher prices, then it looks like a lock to me.
Cook: This is so compelling I have to ask why it hasn’t been discounted in the silver price? How come it’s not $100 already?
Butler: I think it’s a combination of a lack of homework and the initial disbelief of the whole silver premise which prevents an objective investigation.
Cook: I remember when we first met ten years ago. You were telling me silver was the best thing on earth to own. Meanwhile, a well known investment service was sending out mailings suggesting people short silver at $4.00. They said silver was more plentiful than cockroaches. I wonder what happened to them?
Butler: I hope they covered their shorts quickly.
Cook: I bring this up because a lot of people have disagreed or argued with you along the way. They’ve all been proven wrong. However, to this day there are naysayers. What do you say to a guy like Jeffrey Christian at CPM who says there’s no way that JPMorgan is short that much silver?
Butler: Generally it’s good that disagreement exists so that market participants can hear both sides of the silver story.
Cook: What about Jon Nadler who says if Ted Butler was right the price would already have gone up?
Butler: The price has gone up and will continue to do so, in my opinion.
Cook: Why exactly has silver made this big recent move?
Butler: Primarily because of a lack of additional commercial short selling on the COMEX. It was the absence of additional commercial short selling, particularly by the big concentrated shorts, like JPMorgan, that allowed the price to climb as much as it did. On the rally it became obvious that the shorts were experiencing great financial stress, being forced to deposit many billions of dollars in margin calls. This should be taken as further proof of the manipulative role that the big shorts exerted on the price of silver.
Cook: Why did it get whacked?
Butler: The problem for the big shorts was that not only were they experiencing financial stress due to the rising price, they were unable to reduce their short position. That circumstance threatened to result in financial ruin if permitted to continue. Faced with financial ruin and the growing awareness by many of the predicament the big shorts were in, they resorted to their only alternative to that ruin – create a large and dramatic sell-off. That was what we began to see on Tuesday, with the CME’s unethically timed silver margin increase and the collusive vicious sell-off on Friday, under the cover of general commodity weakness.
Cook: What’s next?
Butler: No one knows for sure. It comes down to how much additional long liquidation the big shorts can engineer. We are still above all the critical moving averages, so there does exist the possibility we could go lower to get the technical funds completely flushed out. For sure, if we do go lower, it will be because JPMorgan and the other COMEX crooks are successful in tricking the technical funds into forced selling and not for any other reason. But there has been significant liquidation already, so it is just as possible it could be done or nearly so. Certainly there is nothing in the real world of silver that would account for further selling.
Cook: What’s the status of the formal investigation of silver by the CFTC, Enforcement Division?
Butler: It has yet to be concluded. A new director was just named which should help resolve the investigation that was initiated because of my revelations in 2008 and which Commissioner Bart Chilton publicly referenced recently. No one is more anxious than me to see what the investigation concludes.
Cook: You’ve made a big thing about pool accounts at brokerage firms, international banks and private mints. What can go wrong?
Butler: Everything. It is not hard to imagine investors ending up with a total loss because the metal may not exist to back these programs. If someone is claiming to store 1000-ounce bars for you and you don’t have the serial numbers for the exact bars you paid for, you should run, not walk, to a storage program that allows you to get the specific bars. I’d be especially wary of metal purported to be stored out of the country.
Cook: Are you recommending people switch from gold to silver?
Butler: Most definitely. That still appears to be a switch, which will be greatly rewarding. It amazes me how so many commentaries predict that silver will outperform gold, yet won’t come out and say that you should sell gold in order to buy silver. It makes no sense not to sell gold in order to buy silver if you are convinced silver will outperform gold. I think many feel it’s heresy to sell gold for any reason. But if your goal is to get the best return on your investment dollar in the future, which it should be, switch to silver from gold.
Cook: The bottom line is that people who followed your advice have made a lot of money. What advice would you give to our clients now?
Butler: Well, the days of 4 or 5, 7 to 12 dollar silver are over and that’s too bad for new buyers. At least we spared no effort in urging folks to buy all along. I think in the future we will look back at current prices with much the same result, namely, large profits for those who bought. Although the price is much higher now than it was then and conditions have changed, in many ways today’s new conditions are better.

Serpo

28th November 2010, 03:06 AM

Silver money for China

By: Hugo Salinas Price

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We have been proposing the monetization of a silver coin in Mexico since 2001. According to our proposal a one-ounce coin of pure silver, with no engraved value, would be given a monetary value by the Mexican Central Bank. This coin would exist and circulate as money, in parallel with the paper money system of Mexico.

The monetary value would be superior to the bullion value of the silver ounce by about 15%. This margin would allow a profit, called “seigniorage”, for the Central Bank. Since the coin would not have an engraved value, rises in the price of silver (which would tend to eliminate the seigniorage of the Central Bank) would be met with new, higher, Central Bank quotes for the monetary value of the coin.

The rises in the value of silver in the silver markets of the world would no longer cause the disappearance of the monetized silver ounce. As soon as a rise in the price of silver would begin to affect the seigniorage of the Central Bank, it would produce a new and higher quote.

In order for the silver coin to become money and cease to be a commodity, the last quote of the Central Bank would have to remain stable and not diminish if and when the price of silver were to fall, which of course it does from time to time. Granted such immunity from falls in the price of silver, the coin would become legal tender money and could be used for any commercial transaction.

Now we read that China is having problems with inflation of its money supply. We think that if China were to monetize a silver coin, its Central Bank would have an effective instrument to assist in dealing with inflation.

China used silver exclusively as money for many centuries and restoring it to circulation in China would seem appropriate for China, as it aspires to recover its former glory as the richest country in the world.

The hypothetical case of a monetized silver coin in China.

The first thing that strikes us as we consider a silver coin to be used as money in China is that given its enormous population a one-ounce coin would appear to be much too large.

Let us consider a smaller coin. In the case of silver coins with engraved values we have seen the case of Mexico, whose Central Bank attempted to retain a silver peso (with an engraved value) in circulation all the way up to 1967. The attempt required removing all previously minted and engraved silver coins from circulation and replacing them with new One Peso coins containing less silver.

What we are suggesting is radically different. Instead of replacing a One Peso coin with coins with progressively less silver content, we are simply, in the special case of China, “cutting up” a one ounce pure silver coin into smaller pieces.

For the purpose of silver in circulation in China, we suggest a small coin, about the size of an American dime, with a pure silver content of 1/10 oz., alloyed with 10% copper to give a fineness of .900. In metric terms, the coin would have a gross weight of 3.45 grams and a pure silver content of 3.11 grams.

The determination of the monetary value of the 1/10 oz coin in Yuan

Today, November 24, 2010, the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan is 6.6489 Yuan per dollar, and silver is traded at $27.59 oz.

At these values, the value of silver bullion per ounce, in Yuan, is 6.6489 x $27.59 = 183.44 Yuan per ounce.

The value of silver in a 1/10 coin would be 183.44 / 10 = 18.34 Yuan.

Add to 18.34 Yuan, the cost of minting, which we shall estimate at 10 cents per coin = .67 Yuan for minting costs. Then 18.34 + .67 = 19.01 Yuan.

19.01 Yuan x 1.1 to provide a seigniorage profit to the Chinese Central Bank = 20.91 Yuan.

We round up the Yuan figure of 20.91, to 25 Yuan as the initial official quoted legal tender value of the small 1/10 oz coin, using multiples of 5 for steps in future increases of legal tender monetary value as the price of silver continues to rise. This facilitates public use of the coin.

The Chinese population will snap up these coins in enormous quantities. As they do so, they will initially be handing over 25 Yuan for each coin purchased.

One tonne of silver will serve to manufacture 321,510 coins. One thousand tonnes of silver will allow for the manufacture of 321,510,000 coins. For the population of China, this will be merely the first appetizer. The population of China will gobble up many thousands of tonnes of silver for its savings.

Each 1,000 tonnes of silver that is monetized, at 25 Yuan per coin, will initially withdraw 8.04 billion Yuan from circulation.

The silver coins that go into circulation will be money, but will hardly be used for purchases. It will be difficult to find these coins, as they will all be treasured up by the Chinese population. Their velocity of circulation will be close to zero and thus they will have no inflationary effect upon the economy. Paper Yuan are withdrawn and replaced with silver money which goes into savings; this is a correct way to fight inflation.

Saving these coins will amount to voluntary austerity for the Chinese. Saving is the postponement of consumption. Voluntary austerity is always more effective and sounder from an economic point of view than the forced savings beloved of Statists, who have dictated taxes and scarcity for consumer goods so that the Statists can build factories.

The monetization of a silver coin will be a free-market decision that prompts people to save, spontaneously, of their own accord, and which does not require raising interest rates to draw the people’s money out of the economy into savings.

When the Chinese begin to withdraw silver from the world markets, in order to supply the vast appetite for silver savings of the Chinese, the price of silver will climb to unsuspected heights. We can easily visualize a price four times higher than the present high price: $100 Dollars an ounce.

At 100 Yuan per 1/10 oz. – the initial price calculated above, times four – the Chinese Central Bank would be withdrawing about 32 billion Yuan from circulation with each 1,000 tonnes of monetized silver coin placed in the hands of the Chinese people.

Silver is sold on the world markets, for dollars. At $100 dollars/oz., the Central Bank would be able to transform part of its vast dollar and euro reserves into silver at $3,125,100 dollars per tonne. One thousand tonnes would require $3.1 billion dollars. A drop in the bucket as far as Chinese C.B. reserves are concerned, but every little bit helps, considering that Chinese reserves are not actually worth a Chinese firecracker and that sooner or later, China will have to take a gigantic bath when this fact is recognized.

What about the impact of $100 silver on the price of gold?

We think that the ratios of the past and of the present will disappear. Gold will not necessarily rise four times in price, to retain the same ratio with silver, at its new price of $100 dollars / oz. The silver ratio to gold has been as high as 100 to 1, and lately has been around 50 to 1. The silver ratio to gold can continue to fall towards the old ratio of 16 to 1. If China persists in purchasing world silver, the price of silver might far exceed $100 dollars per ounce and become increasingly effective in stemming inflation as higher prices for the silver coin draw off greater amounts of paper money from the economy.

Quite apart from the effect of sopping up quantities of Yuan at present in circulation in China, monetizing the silver coin for the use of Chinese in their savings would have a salutary effect upon society in China.

Silver as money gets masses of people to think, not of the present, but of the future, and to focus on their long-term objectives as they accumulate savings in real money. It has a binding effect upon society.

Tranquility, or peace of mind, is one of the great Confucian philosophical values of the Chinese and solid savings in real money are a great tranquilizer. It seems to us, that more tranquility in a frenzied Chinese society would be of benefit to China.

The world is seeking a new paradigm in money. The Keynesians and inflationists and Statists have had their day, and they have fudged it. The world’s monetary system is in the initial stage of breakdown. Confidence in fiat money is evaporating. The trend is in place and there is nothing to stop it. The time for real money has arrived, and China can lead the way by monetizing silver into small coins which can be used as money.

Perhaps silver will open the way to a further, more far-reaching reform for gold in the International Monetary Process; for what the world has at present is not a System, but only a Process – of meltdown.

****http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1290899199.php

Serpo

28th November 2010, 03:11 AM

These people seem positive....

Time to sell some gold and buy a heap of silver.

SILVER

Analysts from GFMS and elsewhere are forecasting that "poor man's gold" silver will reach over $30/oz in 2011. Given the favourable supply and demand equation and the significant increase in investment demand this seems likely and may happen early in 2011.

Silver is currently trading $26.67/oz, €20.15/oz and £17.00/oz.

Silver, unlike gold, remains well below its nominal high of just over $50/oz in 1980. Hedge funds and investors with a knowledge of the technicals are targeting this level and will likely continue buying and accumulating until the price level has been reached. Then, many may sell, take profits and/or reduce allocations.

Silver is in effect playing catch up with gold. It remains undervalued versus gold on a historical basis. The gold/silver ratio remains favourable to silver at 50.25 ($1,367/oz divided by $27.20/oz) and the ratio is falling.

Gold to Silver Ratio - 40 Years.

Silver could be the surprise outperformer in 2011 as it was in 2010. Silver's industrial uses should mean that the gold/silver ratio will likely gradually regress to the average in the last 100 hundred years - around 45:1. If the tiny silver market was to see real funds enter it, the ratio could return closer to the historical average of 15:1. This occurred as recently as in 1968 and in 1980 and this time around could result in silver surpassing its 1980 nominal high at $50/oz.

Silver reached $50/oz briefly in 1980 when just one billionaire family, the Hunts (one of a handful of billionaires in the 1970s) attempted to corner the silver market causing the price to surge (in conjunction with many investors seeking to hedge themselves from the stagflation of the 1970s). Today there are hundreds of billionaires and hedge funds throughout the world – some of whom may be tempted to squeeze the large concentrated short positions of JP Morgan in particular. JP Morgan is now facing lawsuits and being sued for manipulation and suppression of silver prices.

Silver is priced at some $27.20/oz today. The average nominal price of silver in 1979 and 1980 was $21.80/oz and $16.39/oz respectively. In today's dollars and adjusted for inflation (government CPI) that would equate to an inflation adjusted average price of some $60/oz and $44/oz. It is for this reason that we believe silver will be valued at over $50/oz in the next 2 to 3 years.

Silver remains undervalued vis-a-vis gold and remains a contrarian play with little or no media coverage and few retail investors having any allocation to silver whatsoever. A close above $28.50/oz could see silver quickly rise to $30 per ounce

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1290780000.php

Serpo

29th November 2010, 11:06 PM

With gold trading near $1,370 and silver breaking back above $27, King World News interviewed Sean Boyd, Chairman and CEO of Agnico Eagle to get his thoughts on where gold and silver are headed. When asked about gold specifically Sean stated, “I think having that perspective of being around the industry for a long time, if you go back ten years ago and someone had said gold was going to $2,000 then you would have thought well, if that’s the case then the world is going to be in a total mess. Well, we can see gold at $2,000 without the world being in a total mess. So I think this argument that we have to have disaster before gold is going to go up is wrong.”

“We get caught up in these short-term fluctuations, and we tend to lose track of the big picture. I was just reading our 1999 annual report where we were making the case for gold when everyone had written it off and people were calling it the barbarous relic. So I just think we are gradually moving away from the concept that it was worthless, to people all of the sudden coming to the conclusion that it has a role. That is just starting in my view.

In the short-term gold has acted reasonably well. In the the next 6 months we should push our way up to $1,500, and gold will likely go through $1,500. But this is just an ongoing trend as we move higher and people start to realize the importance of gold as a currency.

We are seeing some US dollar strength on the back of some euro weakness based on the sovereign debt issues, and when you come full circle this is good for gold.

I can see us gradually moving in the next 12 to 18 months up into the high teens and gold will probably test $2,000 at some point. We want gold to go up gradually, we don’t want it to be in the headlines every day. Pullbacks are always good in the longer-term trend. So I can see if we look out into 2012, gold in that $2,000 range.”

Regarding silver Sean stated, “Silver on a percentage basis is going to do better than gold over the next year or two. Gold will attract money into the precious metals space and silver will be a big beneficiary of that. And if gold is at $2,000, then silver could be $60 to $75.”

When asked about consolidation in the mining sector Boyd responded, “Consolidation will continue because there is a lack of growth in certain quarters, and it gets to the point in some instances where it’s cheaper to buy than to hope that exploration is going to solve your growth challenges. So there will be more consolidation but I think it is going to be selective.

I am not sure of the exact number, but let’s say there are only 20 companies that can actually build mines in the industry. That means there are only 20 potential buyers, and there’s maybe thousands of potential projects out there, so there is a limit to what can get done.

So you have to be in stories with good solid deposits, good management and I think you will be ok there because eventually they will get taken out in this environment.”

Sean Boyd is one of the true veterans of the mining industry, and he has helped Agnico Eagle to achieve a $13 billion market cap. As Sean says, higher prices are on the way as well as more consolidation in the gold and silver space.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/29_Sean_Boyd_-_Gold_Headed_to_%242%2C000%2C_Silver_%2460_to_%247 5.html

Serpo

29th November 2010, 11:09 PM

Thanks Serpo, couldn't thank every post. Some good info.

The good news never stops when it comes to silver

Libertarian_Guard

30th November 2010, 10:12 AM

http://i56.tinypic.com/90n9qa.jpg

Plastic

30th November 2010, 09:18 PM

http://i56.tinypic.com/90n9qa.jpg

I'm not absolutely positive but that may just be borderline dick stabbing material, better hope Mamboni gets laid tonight. :P

Serpo

1st December 2010, 04:19 PM

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1291232919.php

JohnQPublic

1st December 2010, 06:04 PM

I'm not use to seeing the GS ratio < 50 (or even 60 or that matter). But I am completely confortable with it!

Serpo

5th December 2010, 09:45 PM

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/downeyb120310.html

Serpo

6th December 2010, 06:10 PM

The 3475% Gold Analysis Difference Between Pros And The Uninformed

-- Posted Monday, 6 December 2010 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

By Daniel R. Amerman, CFA
Introductory Quiz

Let's start with two quick questions for gold investors. We're going to assume, as will be illustrated in detail later in this article, that 10 to 15 years from now a dollar is worth a nickel, that after a tremendous bull market gold has returned to more or less its long-term average value in inflation-adjusted terms (meaning a far higher dollar price for gold than today), and that as governments struggle financially around the world, the future average marginal tax rate on gold profits is 50%.

Question One. If the future dollar is worth five cents, and gold is trading around its long-term historical real (inflation-adjusted) value, which would be $9,000 an ounce in future dollars, did you:

A) Make a killer investment that's really multiplied your net worth? Or,

B) Lose more than 80% of your net worth, with much of that going to the government?

Question Two For Extra Credit. Let's say that gold eventually returns to something close to its long-term historic average value, and we'll call that $450 an ounce. Which of the following scenarios gives you a higher after-inflation and after-tax net worth?

A) Gold is nominally at $9,000 an ounce but in inflation-adjusted terms is only worth $450 an ounce.

B) Gold goes straight from $1,350 an ounce down to $450 an ounce with no significant inflation.

The correct answers are B and B. If the dollar becomes worth five cents and gold eventually returns to its long term average value in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, then you lose over 80% of your net worth on an after-tax basis. Also, if gold is going to return to its long term inflation-adjusted value, you are almost three times better off if gold is selling for $450 an ounce, than if it was selling for a nominal $9,000 an ounce.

How did you score?

You may doubt the answers right now, but will come to understand them as we cover these questions in step by step, irrefutable detail. If you missed either correct answer, or if anything at all came as a surprise, let me suggest that it is very much in your long term financial interest to read this complete article, and then learn some of the professional grade tools that you will need to get ahead in real terms (after-inflation and after-tax). If you are a long-time reader, please also note that what is quite different in this article from my previous articles on gold, is that it addresses how gold asset deflation in purchasing power terms affects investors when they buy into a precious metals bull market that is followed by substantial monetary inflation.

Gold and silver can be superb investments for the current times, and when you use a professional level strategy – then a heavy precious metals weighting can be a key component in not only surviving the destruction of the value of currencies, but potentially building multigenerational wealth even after adjusting for the corrosive effects of inflation and taxes. Also please note that the principles illustrated herein are not dependent on the specific example of gold regressing to a long term valuation mean, but are even more important in a spectacular bull market where gold could hit the highest real valuations of our lifetimes. But whether we are looking at long term declining valuations or short term soaring valuations, to understand the difference between the gold investors who will be highly successful, and the gold investors who will lose most of what they have, we need to look at the difference between examining gold using professional level methodologies versus the alluring but deceptive surface level used by so many gold investors.
The 3475% Gold Performance Difference

For this reasonable illustration, let's start with you. We'll assume that you've been a gold investor for some time, because you've been looking at the irresponsible financial and monetary decisions of your government for many years, and you have concluded that the destruction of the dollar was the most likely result. Unfortunately for us all - you are turning out to be exactly right. Now you're seeing the madness that has officially consumed the Federal Reserve with QE2 and the creation of new money in an amount equal to 9% of the US economy. In other words, a thousand dollars per household per month, is being created directly out of the nothingness by the Federal Reserve and then used to purchase treasury bonds. You believe that the end of the dollar as we know it is indeed approaching, and you buy still more gold at the current market price of approximately $1,350 per ounce.

While we're making assumptions, we will assume that what I have been writing about for many years comes true, and in addition to the above, the government uses massive inflation (such as that so conveniently eventually caused by QE2, QE3 and QE4) to effectively meet the Social Security, Medicare and pension promises that would otherwise be impossible. For a nice round number we'll take the example developed in the article linked below, "Bailout Lies Threaten Your Savings", and assume that the bottom line is correct and the dollar becomes worth a nickel.

http://danielamerman.com/Video/BBL1B.htm

Now if gold is currently selling for $1,350 an ounce, and gold were to entirely keep up with inflation, (which it is likely to do and even exceed in the next few years), then gold would rise to 20 times its current value, which would be $27,000 an ounce. Which sounds spectacular, but keep in mind that when we adjust for inflation, the real (inflation-adjusted) value of our investment is merely constant at $1,350 an ounce in today's dollars.

However, for our example we are not assuming peak valuation (i.e. selling near the top) but rather a long term buy-and-hold strategy for an investor who truly believes in the wealth retention power of gold. So the peak of the crisis came and went some years ago, we're a more impoverished nation than we were, and this relative impoverishment is concentrated among the retirees and boomers whose savings, retirement accounts and investments were shredded in the Great Collapse. We'll assume that a new and poorer financial "normalcy" has returned, as some form of "normalcy" almost always does eventually, Zimbabwe notwithstanding. So we're looking 10 or 15 years out and saying that gold has returned to its long-term historic average value. Like it eventually did after the last great gold bull market of 30 years ago that accompanied the stagflation of the 70s and early 1980s.

The graph below tracks the long-term inflation-adjusted value of gold, using New York market prices from 1791 through 2009. There are difficulties involved with the calculation of long term inflation rates, and the numbers need to be taken as a ballpark range rather than being precise values. Therefore the average shown of $458 an ounce is likely more indicative of a valuation between, say, $433 an ounce and $483 an ounce. By coincidence, $450 an ounce, which is near the middle of the range, is precisely one third of today's price of about $1,350 an ounce, which makes illustration calculations easy to follow.

So let's take what the value of gold would be if it precisely kept up with inflation, $27,000 an ounce, and say that long after the crisis has passed, gold has "regressed to the mean" and returned to its average value in real terms over the last couple of centuries, and that's an inflation-adjusted $450 an ounce, which is one third of $1,350. So we take our $27,000 and we divide by three, which gives us a value of $9,000 an ounce. (We then check by multiplying by 5%, and it is indeed an inflation-adjusted value of $450 an ounce.)

While not quite as exciting as $27,000 an ounce, $9,000 an ounce sure does look a whole better than $1,350 an ounce, and indeed, when we divide $9,000 by $1,350, we come up with 667% of our starting investment value.

That is all well and good, except that there's a slight complication. When you eventually sell the gold to fund your lifestyle or redeploy the assets, the government compares the $9,000 sale price of gold versus the $1,350 you bought it for and sees a $7,650 profit. And the government says that we're in very difficult times (thanks to the mess it created years before) and we all need to pay our share, which is now 50%. (The idea the tax rate will "only" be 50% being a decidedly optimistic one perhaps.) So we take our $9,000, we pay the government the half it demands of the $7,650 book profit, which is $3,825, and we're left with $5,175. That's still not too bad as it is almost four times what we originally bought the gold for.

Except there's this second complication of our needing to adjust for a dollar only being worth a nickel. $5,175 times 5% is equal to $259. That's right, if we buy gold at $1,350 an ounce, and we sell at the long term average inflation-adjusted price for gold (about $9,000) when the dollar becomes worth a nickel, and we pay 50% in taxes on our "profits", then we're left with $259 an ounce in gold purchasing power after adjusting for both inflation and taxes. If we compare that $259 with the $1,350 we started with, we have only 19% percent of our net worth remaining on an after-inflation and after-tax basis. When we compare the 667% (or $9,000), which is the glittering surface that many investors would look to, to the 19% (or $259) in real purchasing power that investment professionals would see as being the end result, the difference is 3475% ($9,000/$259 = 3475%).

Let's quickly review the five columns:

We start with $1,350 an ounce gold;

A dollar becomes worth a nickel (monetary inflation), and gold exactly keeping up with inflation would mean $27,000 an ounce;

However, gold at $1,350 an ounce is roughly 3 times the long-term historic average, and if gold eventually returns to its long-term average real value in inflation-adjusted terms after 10-15 years, that would be about $9,000 an ounce (asset deflation in purchasing power terms);

The government taxes us heavily on the decline in purchasing power on our investment, because the tax code doesn't (usually) recognize inflation (inflation taxes), leaving us with $5,175 an ounce; and

When we finally multiply by 5% to account for a future dollar only being worth 5 cents in purchasing power compared to today, we are left with the tiny column on the far right, which is $259 an ounce in after-tax and after-inflation terms. It is the ultimate, spendable reality: what we can purchase after paying taxes.

As illustrated in this reasonable example, when we compare the $9,000 an ounce value in the "surface" column, and the $259 "real" value in the spending power column, let me suggest that there is a 3475% difference between looking at gold performance using professional analysis tools, and performance when measured with the simple surface approach.

The sources behind our going from an apparent huge gain to losing 81% of our real net worth are that (1) the value of money was destroyed (aka monetary or price inflation); (2) that gold eventually fell in real terms in a regression to the mean to its long term average value (aka asset deflation in purchasing power terms), and (3) that even partially keeping up with monetary inflation created a false income that was taxed by the government (aka inflation taxes). When all three parts work together, we take what on the surface looks to be the best investment decision of our life and we instead lose most of our net worth.

When (1) the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are creating new money out of the nothingness on a massive basis; when (2) you are buying at the highest gold prices in real terms in almost 30 years; and when (3) your government is effectively bankrupt and highly likely to be raising tax rates in the future, let me suggest that what we just illustrated are three of the most important factors in your life when it comes to determining what your future standard of living will be for both yourself and your family.

We do not have to be helpless victims, however. Right now and the years coming up may indeed be some of the most advantageous times of our lifetimes to create wealth through purchasing gold and silver – but we've got to get there using a little different path than the simplest and most popular strategies.
The Risk Is Not What People Think

Gold investors are well aware that gold is trading at high prices relative to where it has been for most of the last 30 years, and that while we may have strong opinions about where investments are likely to go, we rarely have guarantees. Serious investors know that there is a risk in buying gold at current levels, that gold may return to previous levels, and that they could lose a good deal of money if that does happen.

Serpo

6th December 2010, 06:10 PM

Now, I happen to agree with the assessment that $1,350 an ounce is not bad at all given what the government is currently doing, in combination with the long term fiscal situation of the US government. It could even be called bargain basement when we consider that the US government is massively monetizing for the first time since the Civil War. And while I don't think $450 an ounce in nominal dollars is at all likely - the possibility can't be dismissed altogether, and indeed, explicitly considering the possibility that an investment will return to a long term average valuation should be one of the scenarios considered as a part of any responsible investment evaluation process. (Taking a good, long look at inflation-adjusted gold prices over the last couple of centuries as shown in the 1791-2009 graph can be quite compelling, when we consider the potential inflation-adjusted price of gold in the long-term future.)

Let's go back to the 2nd quiz question. On the one hand we have gold at $9,000 an ounce, which on an inflation-adjusted basis is equal to $450 an ounce. On the other hand we buy gold at $1,350 an ounce, and we could say that it works out that to everyone's great surprise - Bernanke really is the greatest economic genius in history. The economy does fully recover. The dollar maintains full value. Social security and Medicare pay in full without the value of the dollar falling, just like the politicians have promised us. (Again this is an illustration, not a prediction.) In this scenario, if we purchase gold at $1,350 an ounce and we sell it at $450, we would take a $900 per ounce loss. And let's assume that we generate a tax loss that is usable for us at the current collectibles rate of 30%.

Our $900 loss allows us to reduce our tax payments by $270 ($900 X 30%). If we take the $450 we got in sales proceeds and add the $270 tax loss benefit, we've got $720. This equals 53% of the $1,350 that we originally spent, meaning we took an after-tax and after-inflation loss of 47%.

We previously calculated that with a dollar being worth a nickel and gold going to $9,000 an ounce (which also returns us to the long term average inflation-adjusted value of $450), that we end up with $259 in after-tax and after-inflation terms. Which represented 19% of our original investment. If we compare ending up after-tax and after-inflation with 53% of our net worth intact, to having only 19% of our net worth intact, we see that selling gold at $450 an ounce can indeed leave us with almost 3 times the after-tax and after-inflation net worth that we would have if we sold gold at $9,000 an ounce under the assumptions shown. (Raising the tax rate from 30% to 50% to make the examples uniform would just increase the advantage to $450 gold).

This may seem to be highly counterintuitive, but it all comes back to what I have been educating investors about for years now, and that is about how simultaneous monetary inflation and asset deflation can work together in an environment of inflation taxes. When you have asset deflation (in purchasing power terms) in a time of overwhelming monetary inflation, no tax losses are generated, and instead you're paying substantial taxes on illusory income. Remove monetary inflation, and the same exact level of asset deflation leads to deductible losses you can (hopefully) use, with this tax write-off materially reducing the "hit" from the loss. This explains how you can do almost 3 times as well through selling gold at $450 an ounce and taking a $900 pretax loss, versus selling gold at $9,000 an ounce and taking a $7,650 profit - so long as the true (inflation-adjusted) value for gold is the same.

Rephrased, when real asset deflation is masked by monetary inflation, it is inflation taxes that can destroy nearly 2/3 of your real wealth, as opposed to a fully tax-deductible asset deflation loss with no monetary inflation.
Finding Professional Grade Opportunity

Last year, I was one of the six experts who participated in Jim Puplava's Great 'Flation Debate (along with Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Robert Prechter, Harry Dent and Mish Shedlock), and in the aftermath of the debate I prepared the simple ten minute video tutorial "Can Theory & Jargon Destroy Your Net Worth?" (linked below). What the video teaches is just how radical the difference is between seeing the world in simplistic terms (inflation or deflation), versus using the tools of professional wealth management to see what was illustrated herein: simultaneous monetary inflation and asset deflation in an environment of inflation taxes.

http://danielamerman.com/Video/Jargon.htm

Avoiding mistakes, such as accidentally losing 80% of one's net worth in real terms, is a very good reason to learn and understand these concepts. Monetary inflation, asset deflation and inflation taxes are three powerhouse wealth destroyers - and the investor who is unaware of how these fundamental forces work is the investor who is most vulnerable to their destructive onslaught. Conversely, if one learns not only of their existence, but studies how these destructive forces work in close detail (the financial application of "hold your friends close and your enemies closer"), then you can do something quite fascinating: turn each one of them to your advantage.

Extraordinary peril can be turned into extraordinary opportunity when we understand that each one of these powerful forces are in fact not universal wealth destroyers, but rather each acts to redistribute wealth between individuals. Monetary inflation redistributes wealth from some people to other people. The ending implications of asset deflation powerfully redistribute wealth from some people to other people. Inflation taxes powerfully redistribute wealth from unknowing investors to government.

As a redistribution - each one of these can be reversed! That is, an individual through his or her actions has the ability to change their personal financial profile so that all three wealth destroyers act to redistribute wealth to them, rather than slashing their wealth.

As an example, some of the strategies illustrated in detail in my Gold Out Of The Box DVDs start with a potentially heavy precious metals weighting, but there are more components than just metals, and the strategies are designed from Day One to allow one to shift in the four stages of crisis: the ramp up to crisis, the peak of the crisis, the immediate aftermath, and the longer-term aftermath. Having multiple components that are designed from the very beginning to potentially shift over time may seem a bit complex - but there is a professional grade reason for that: the opportunities and perils with monetary inflation and asset inflation/deflation shift at each stage.

Unfortunately, it is not quite as "easy" as merely shifting investments for changing monetary inflation and asset deflation points of opportunity over the four stages. The problem is that selling assets typically causes a taxation event, and in an environment of high inflation the "haircuts" associated with paying multiple rounds of confiscatory inflation taxes each time assets are redeployed, can cripple an otherwise brilliantly executed investment strategy. Even partially reversing inflation taxes is not an easy challenge, and if you wait until you are ready to sell an asset that is carrying a fat inflation-based "profit" - it is probably too late. If you are going to redeploy assets in multiple stages, or pull monetary inflation and/or asset deflation profits out during stages three or four when you need that money to support your future standard of living - without handing everything you have over to the government - you had better have your eyes wide open and be carefully planning for these redeployments and cashing out events from Day One.

The difference between "accidentally" losing 80% of your net worth, and turning three perils into three profit opportunities as you potentially multiply your real net worth, comes down to a matter of vision. It comes down to seeing with perfect clarity the 3475% difference in vision illustrated in this article. It means seeing the problems so well that you can also see the opportunities within each problem.

To gain that vision there is a first step and it isn't something anyone else can do for you. The first step is education.
Additional Reading

1. This article, "Hidden Gold Taxes: The Secret Weapon Of Bankrupt Governments", removes the complexity of asset deflation, and provides a simpler, step by step overview of gold, inflation and inflation taxes.

http://danielamerman.com/articles/GoldTaxes1.htm

2. This two minute video, "Deadly Danger Of Dow 50,000", takes a very quick look at how simultaneous monetary inflation, asset deflation and inflation taxes could devastate stock investors in the same inflation/tax environment shown herein.

http://danielamerman.com/articles/DeadlyDow.htm

3. A free book, the "Turning Inflation Into Wealth Mini-Course" can be received in installments via e-mail subscription through the website below. It covers the essentials of developing your inflation vision, analyzes a historically successful inflation fighting strategy, and illustrates an inflation tax reversal strategy in detail.

http://danielamerman.com/

Do you know how to Turn Inflation Into Wealth? To position yourself so that inflation will redistribute real wealth to you, and the higher the rate of inflation – the more your after-inflation net worth grows? Do you know how to achieve these gains on a long-term and tax-advantaged basis? Do you know how to potentially triple your after-tax and after-inflation returns through Reversing The Inflation Tax? So that instead of paying real taxes on illusionary income, you are paying illusionary taxes on real increases in net worth? These are among the many topics covered in the free “Turning Inflation Into Wealth” Mini-Course. Starting simple, this course delivers a series of 10-15 minute readings, with each reading building on the knowledge and information contained in previous readings. More information on the course is available at DanielAmerman.com or InflationIntoWealth.com.http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1291658348.php

Serpo

6th December 2010, 06:26 PM

Reuters) - Silver rose above $30 an ounce for the first time since 1980 on Monday as gold set a record high, but thin volume for both metals could indicate near-term weakness as some investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the year end.

Gold and silver rose in a safe-haven play on the back of speculation U.S. authorities will extend monetary easing and lingering worries over euro zone debt, analysts said.

While gold has grabbed investors' attention this year with its rally to record highs above $1,420 an ounce, silver has quietly outpaced those gains. A $100 investment in silver on January 1 would now be worth about $180, versus a gold investment's $130.

"The (silver) market is extremely well bid. The funds are obviously adding the support underneath the market," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader of Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago.

"You've got dwindling above-ground stocks, you've got tremendous interest in the market, you've got the Fed now talking about QE3," McGhee said. He added silver has been playing catch-up to gold's rally.

Spot silver rose 2.5 percent to $30.08 an ounce, having earlier hit a 30-year high at $30.25.

Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to $1,419.65 an ounce. It climbed to an all-time high at $1,427.01 an ounce late in the U.S. session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $9.90 at $1,416.10 an ounce.

COMEX silver futures volume at 81,000 lots, almost 70 percent below their 250-day average, while gold volume was at 140,000 contracts, more than 40 percent below its 30-day average, as some trading desks and funds have already closed their books ahead of the year end.

"It seems like there are less players in the market, and that only seem to accentuate the trend because there is less volume...That's how you see a move in silver much grander than gold right now," said Mihir Dange, COMEX gold floor trader.

However, one analyst said that dwindling turnover for silver futures could signal price decline in the near term.

"Volume is key, and the low volume is suggesting this is a temporary, short-term top for silver," said David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com.

The rally in silver -- up nearly 80 percent this year versus gold's 30 percent gain -- has narrowed the gold-to-silver ratio to less than 48, its lowest level since the first quarter of 2007 and a point at which more analysts were beginning to call silver overvalued.

Net long positions in U.S. silver futures held by speculators rose by 12 percent in the week ended November 30, as momentum traders jumped back into a market that has since then rallied to a 30-year high, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

At over $30 an ounce, silver is at its highest level since 1980 when a physical squeeze briefly sent it above $50 an ounce in the Hunt Brothers' infamous attempt to corner the market. The Hunts were later convicted of conspiring to manipulate the market.

BERNANKE: COULD BUY MORE THAN $600 BLNhttp://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A80F320101206?pageNumber=2

Serpo

6th December 2010, 06:27 PM

Silver above $30, gold hits record but volume thin

By Frank Tang

NEW YORK | Mon Dec 6, 2010 5:14pm EST

For gold, its strength can be seen against currencies across the board, as gold hit record highs in U.S. dollar, sterling and euro terms, and Japanese yen-denominated bullion hit its highest since early 1983.

Gold benefited as a hedge against inflation after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Sunday the bank could buy more than the $600 billion in U.S. government bonds it has committed to purchase.

The euro snapped a three-day advance versus the dollar on Monday and selling pressure is likely to continue as doubts grew that European officials would find a common approach to ease the region's debt crisis.

Platinum slipped 0.3 percent to $1,720.50 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.4 percent to $755.47.

(Additional reporting by Jan Harvey in London;editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)

Serpo

13th December 2010, 01:01 PM

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip387082

Serpo

14th December 2010, 10:44 PM

http://www.youtube.com/user/stellaconcepts#p/u/0/ukjOZq2INOM

Serpo

24th December 2010, 02:50 PM

thanks goes to plastic for the bears are BACK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E&feature=player_embedded

Serpo

25th December 2010, 02:23 PM

Silver Market Update

By: Clive Maund

-- Posted 24 December, 2010

You can consider this Silver Market update to be gift wrapped. As I am unable to get presents to each and every reader this year for logistical reasons, these Gold and Silver Market updates are going to have to suffice, which is perfectly reasonable given how bullish they are.

Many traders are starting to get edgy about silver because its steep uptrend has been in force for quite a while now, and when silver breaks down from an uptrend it has a nasty tendency to drop like a rock. This is understandable, but according to our interpretation of the charts, rather than suddenly break down, silver is instead about break higher and embark on another upleg that will take it to new highs.

On its 6-month chart we can see how the fine uptrend in silver remains in force, although it is clearly at an important juncture, as it must get moving shortly to avert the risk of a breakdown. While gold has reacted back somewhat in recent weeks, silver, which has outperformed gold significantly for months, has instead moved sideways in a small triangular trading range that is interpreted as a continuation pattern, meaning that we think it will break out upside to commence another upleg, and as the Triangle is rapidly closing up, it is clear that it should break out upside soon - and it doesn't look like it will wait until the New Year to do so - it looks set to happen next week. As with gold, the pronounced Falling Wedge that has developed in the PM stocks indices this month is a powerful circumstantial indication that both gold and silver are set to break out upside.

We are aware that this steep uptrend cannot continue forever, especially as silver has now opened up a very large gap with its 200-day moving average, so we may look to lock in some profits as the anticipated upleg completes, depending of course on how it pans out. The recent outperformance of silver relative to gold may be in part due to J P Morgan being "hauled over the coals" re its huge silver short position. If they decide to finally "throw in the towel" we could see a really dramatic spike in silver soon, which will of course be highly amusing to those who are not exactly friends of this company.

http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1293211216.php

Serpo

25th December 2010, 02:31 PM

Paper, Plastic, or Silver

By: Michael "Woody" O'Brien ChFC

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1293213212.php

-- Posted 24 December, 2010

My lovely wife enjoys shopping, but not as much when I’m shopping with her.

In the past her angst was limited to me prodding her NOT to buy made in China, but to instead make every purchase a hard-target search to buy American - especially online.

(see: http://www.americansworking.com/index.html).

Then her eyes rolled when I refused to have anything I purchased put into a plastic shopping bag. I've told 1000 retail clerks, "plastic comes from oil, that causes wars, that kill innocent people, and I won’t be a part of that global crime spree."

However, now my wife must endure my new retail teachable moment. I now ask businesses at which we shop if they want to be paid in worthless paper dollars or real silver money, while holding up a new, 1 troy ounce silver round.

The reaction of most people who have never eyeballed (or even held) a pure ounce of precious metals in their hand is enlightening. People’s eyes light up like a Christmas tree when offered payment in silver.

Many small, owner-run local, small businesses are THRILLED to be asked to take silver as payment for services. I have had my Hummer serviced, bought hunting equipment, food direct from an organic farmer, and even a solar power generator paid with precious metals.

Just as important, I am conditioning these same merchants to look at me as a preferred, hard-money customer – especially when the dollar falls.

"Where did you get that silver, and how can I get some?" is also a very common question. Apmex.com and eBay is my standard reply.

Why is offering people you do business with the option to pay in silver so important?

It's actually quite simple. If you are in a movie theater, and 3 people walk out, you will barely notice it. But if 10 people dash out, the rest of the crowd will start to think they know something and head for the exits.

People who own silver know the reasons why it keeps going up, but they are not usually very chatty about telling others. For the bull market in precious metals to power forward to the next level, it's in the enlightened self interest of every bullion investor to start offering to pay others in metals.

One man named John Chapman, aka: Johnny Appleseed, made eating apples mainstream in America in under 20 years.

Imagine what 1 million silver bullion owners can do in 12 months trying to mainstream silver as payment for goods and services.

Try tipping a waiter with a ½ ounce silver round or silver war nickels and explain why. Give silver bullion Christmas, birthday, graduation and thank you gifts. My clients LOVE getting silver rounds as my thank you for their referral of new gold stock mutual fund clients.

The allure of precious metals is thousands of years old; it's nearly in our DNA. If you have never seen the way people's eyes light up when holding a real silver round, try it. You will be shocked by what you witness.

With the vast majority of Americans having never held a 1 ounce, of any precious matal in their hand, there is much work to do. There are hundreds of millions of teachable opportunities in the lives of bullion owners that NEED to be seized.

Consider this your marching orders from Silver General Woody O’Brien: get off your silver ASSets and stop JUST accumulating silver, and start giving and spending it as money. Start letting others feel silver as indestructible tender in their hands.

Become a silver enabler. Help people reconnect with that precious metals DNA in all of us that craves real money in the palm of our hand.

Max Keiser’s prediction of $500 silver can come to pass, and crush bankster criminals like JP Morgan like a bug on a windshield, if just one thing happens:

Current owners of bullion treat silver as the proverbial candle of Matthew in verse 5:15:

"Neither do men light a candle and put it under a bushel, but upon a candlestick, that it may shine to all that are in the house".

At this moment in history, Silver can do more than just save your wealth and others you teach about it. Silver (and gold) can save the world from more decades of bankster war and debt slavery.

The protesters in Europe and Alex Jones are on point: the world faces a choice between the banksters or us. Choose!

I vote we keep the guillotines in storage and bankrupt the banksters with silver rounds before jailing them (the real terrorists) at Gitmo!

Michael "Woody" O'Brien ChFC

zap

27th December 2010, 08:47 PM

It is moving up a little.........

GOLD 12/27/2010 22:38

1390.40 1391.40
+6.30

+0.46%

SILVER 12/27/2010 22:38

29.52 29.54
+0.24

+0.82%

PLATINUM

12/27/2010 22:37

1743.00 1747.00
+8.00

+0.46%

PALLADIUM 12/27/2010 22:01

770.00 776.00
+3.00

+0.39%

Serpo

31st December 2010, 12:37 AM

The Collapse of Price Fixing Will Keep Silver Prices Rising

By: Peter Cooper

Reliable market estimates suggest that there around two billion ounces of gold held above ground in bullion, and only one billion ounces of silver.

Over time there has been far more silver mined than gold, say around 45 billion ounces, but it has almost all been consumed by industry. Much more of the five million ounces of gold mined by mankind remains.

Undervaluation

At current prices then the total silver market is worth $30.6 billion and gold $2.8 trillion. Any investor ought to spot the undervaluation there. That is what happens when a commodity trades at a lower price than three decades ago.

It is as though silver has been kept in some kind of communist, controlled economy. And indeed, that essentially is what happened after the 1980 silver price crash. Several banks colluded to keep the silver price locked down and in a world of its own, trading silver to profit their own books.

Earlier this year the bank’s position finally became untenable. Regulators began to publicly acknowledge a legion of complaints from investors and found them impossible to deny any longer. And the banks, fearing action largely liquidated their short positions over the quiet summer months.

Price fundamentals change

Silver prices have jumped from $17 to $30 since then. However, while this kind of price spike is always vulnerable to sudden corrections, there is a change in price fundamentals here.

The real lesson is that the artificial price fixing regime is over. Communism has collapsed and price controls are off. The logic is actually for very much higher market prices, not a retracement as some now expect.

History shows that once price fixing regimes collapse prices quickly inflate, and they then never go back to former levels. The gold rush of the 2000s is going to be nothing to the silver rush of the 2010s.

The silver market is incredibly small to absorb the scale of investment likely to come its way as other asset classes lose their appeal thanks to rising inflation and interest rates. For the gold-to-silver price ratio to get back to its historic average then silver prices must treble; and that will be on top of the rise to come by following the gold price up and up.

Market psychology
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1293778920.php
And while precious metals have been growing in investor appeal for the past decade, there has been nothing yet like the over confidence of the late phase of an investment bubble. We saw that in dot-com stocks and later in residential housing.

At the moment many investors in gold do so out of fear and with little enthusiasm, and they hardly touch silver. Only when the broad masses get the bug and greed over powers this market will it be time to get out. That hardly seems to be the case right now.

Serpo

31st December 2010, 12:41 AM

Wall Street Journal Aids Silver Price Suppression

By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report

-- Posted 30 December, 2010 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 3 Source: SilverSeek.com

(Through misinformation, lies and omission! Plus, the year in review, and price predictions for 2011)

I'm called upon by my regular readers to refute, rebut, and rebuke this bad article on silver from the Wall Street Journal.

Price of Silver Soaring
Investor-Fueled 74% Gains Dwarf Gold; Race to Open Mines
By CAROLYN CUI And ROBERT GUY MATTHEWS
DECEMBER 26, 2010

Regarding (RE) the WSJ comment: "unexpected surge in investor demand."

Really? Unexpected, you say? But precious metals bulls have been predicting explosions in the price for ten years based on irrefutable fundamentals and unsustainable market manipulation!

How can investor demand be unexpected when the price of precious metals has been going up continuously for ten years now since the year 2000? Don't investors like to buy things that are rising in price? Don't investors also try to predict things that will rise in price, and buy them before they really rise? Does the WSJ know anything at all about investing?

Unexpected? Really? When the numbers of silver Eagle 1 oz. coins produced by the US Mint has been increasing steadily for the past 3-4 years, up from 10 million oz. to nearly 40 million oz. this year? How can a single year's investor demand be unexpected, when its increase is already a steady trend?

Regarding the WSJ comment: "Prices are rising despite oversupply."

What oversupply? What do you even mean by oversupply?

Here is the dictionary definition of oversupply:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/oversupply
"A supply in excess of what is appropriate or required."

Ah, the WSJ is no longer reporting fact, but throwing out opinion now.

There is no oversupply, and can never be any oversupply of things such as gold and silver, since they have the least diminishing marginal utility of all things on earth, since they are money. Nobody ever complained that they had too much money.

But what does the WSJ mean by oversupply?

The supply & demand numbers produced by such surveys as http://www.silverinstitute.org/ who the WSJ quotes as a source, have "sum up" categories called "Implied Net Disinvestment" and "Implied Net Investment".

http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php

When investors are buying, this is often called a surplus, or as the WSJ says, an "oversupply", and when investors are selling, that is called a deficit.

So, apparently, the WSJ is saying that when investors are buying silver that's "oversupply". And thus, when they describe that action as an "oversupply", they are really saying that silver purchases by investors are "inappropriate". Thus, they reveal their bias, with one word.

RE: "Many analysts expected those factors would keep a lid on prices in 2010."

But most silver analysts are employed by LBMA bullion banks who have a vested interest in manipulating silver prices downward, since silver is the Achilles heel, or arch enemy, of the banking system. Thus, "mainstream" silver analysts have never gotten a single year's prediction correct in the last ten years of the bull market in silver and gold. They always "predict" prices for next year that are within about 5% of current prices, and never any higher. Meanwhile, silver prices have risen from $4.15/oz. in 2003 to $30.60 now in 2010, which is a cumulative return of 637%, which, over 7 years, is an average annual gain of 33%. They never come close to predicting such gains.

Check my math, here:
http://www.smartmoney.com/compoundcalc/

Have any of the mainstream analysts predicted a silver price gain of 33%, for the following year, or even close, in the last 7 years? Never. Thus, they are worse than useless, they are purposefully deceiving, or willfully ignorant, as is this WSJ article. That should be no surprise, and neither should silver's price rise.

RE: "What they didn't expect was an overwhelming flow of money into the market from investors eager to ride a commodities rally."

Overwhelming flow of money into silver? Really? Let's see, there is $14,000 billion to $18,000 billion of paper dollars in the US banking system, which does not count dollars in overseas banks, and the rest of the world is printing up paper money like crazy for competitive devaluations. Meanwhile, the US government has an annual deficit of $1500 billion or more, depending on how you count, if you count off budget items, it could be as high as $3000 billion depending on who you read. Meanwhile, a tiny $3 billion pours into silver, which is a paltry 2% of 1% of the money in the US banking system, and a mere 10% of 1% (or 1/1000th) of new US money creation.

I wouldn't call that an overwhelming flow of money into silver. I'd say that's only a tiny trickle, wouldn't you say?

RE: "This is a story almost entirely about investment," says Stephen Briggs, senior metals strategist at BNP Paribas.

Well, the silver story, in the future, will be almost entirely about investment, but today, investors are still buying only a tiny fraction of new silver mine supply, with the rest being consumed by industrial applications of all sorts, from fabrication, to photography, to jewelry, silverware, and coins and medals.

From the silverinstitute.org:

2009 mine production: 709.6 million oz.
2009 Implied Net Investment: 136.9 million oz. (oversupply, or investor buying)

But let's pause here, and examine the numbers more closely.

Sprott wrote an excellent silver report that reveals that ETF silver demand is not counted in the "demand" numbers for silver!!!
http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=245442&q=264546678qz%3D3f9465

Fraudulent supply/demand numbers, omitting investor demand, or calling it a "surplus", is part of the manipulation of silver prices.

But this implies a few other things, too.

Either the exchange traded funds are not actually going out into the market to buy silver which means they are mostly all fraudulent, or, their net purchases are more than offset by investors or refiners dumping 1000 oz. silver bars (the only acceptable form of ETF silver) to dealers who sell it directly to LBMA banks. We've never had to dump any silver bars in the last 2 years of our precious metals business.

RE: Investors from the U.S. to China turned to "hard" assets such as copper and other commodities in part as a hedge against inflation worries.

No, copper has never been a key inflation hedge. Gold and silver are. In fact, recent reports show that JP Morgan has been buying all the world's warehouse copper, up to 90% of it. So, JP Morgan owns the copper, not investors, so this statement is just a bald faced lie.

RE: Exchange-traded funds backed with silver have enabled investors to invest in a market that traditionally was harder to participate in.

I don't know what's so hard about buying $15,000 worth of silver at $30/oz. It's only 500 troy ounces, which only weighs 35 pounds, and comes in a box the size of 9 inches by 9 inches by 3 inches high. Even 60 year old ladies carry such boxes out of our store all the time. That's one of the world's easiest commodities to buy. Contrast with WSJ's beloved copper, at $4.40/pound, which means $15,000 of it would weigh a staggering 3409 pounds! That's why copper is not remotely a viable inflation hedge, and has never been used as commodity money, but only as token money. Even 1 troy oz. of copper, at $4.40/oz. divided by 14.8 troy oz/pound is only worth 29 cents per troy oz., but would cost you about $4 each for minting costs and distribution, and perhaps $5-10 each for widespread marketing via MLM plans.

RE: In recent months, concerns about inflation, the European debt crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent moves to boost the economy have driven investors to hard assets, also benefiting silver prices.

Really? I agree. But then, why was silver's move so "unexpected" as the WSJ first wrote, to most analysts? Shouldn't this have been easily foreseen?

RE: The craze has reached the coin market.

Craze? Craze you say? What do you mean, craze?

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/craze
1. A short-lived popular fashion; a fad.
2. A fine crack in a surface or glaze.

Ah, only two definitions for the noun form. Clearly, they don't mean the second. Ah, they imply silver demand by investors is not only inappropriate, but will be short lived, and that it's now popular.

Wait, when only 1/1000th of new money is moving into silver, why and how is that popular? When only 2% of 1% of actual money in the banks, or, less than $2 out of every $10,000 sitting in banks is being invested into silver, how can that be accurately described as popular? No, silver is very unpopular now, still.

Let's be honest. If even 1% of paper money in US only banks, were to be invested into silver, it would be 50 times greater than the investment demand today, which would be as much as $180 billion dollars, moving into the silver market that only produces 700 million new oz. by the mines each year. $180 billion divided by 700 million implies no silver buying from anywhere else in the entire world, and no silver buying from any kind of industrial application, which implies a lowest possible price of $257/oz., at this "1% demand" level, which would still be, long, long before silver ever gets to be "popular".

That's a shamefully inaccurate description, calling silver coin buying a "craze", which also implies things such as:

verb: 1. To cause to become mentally deranged or obsessed; make insane.
verb, intr. 1. To become mentally deranged or obsessed; go insane.

The reason why that word "craze" is particularly objectionable to me is that silver buyers are returning to rational thought. People who think used, dirty, printed paper is valuable are the ones who have lost their minds.

RE: "Silver's reliance on investors to prop up the price could cause it to tumble suddenly."

"Silver's reliance on investors"? No, Investors rely on silver!

But seriously, I agree, silver's price is increasingly reliant upon investors who sell paper money for silver, and at some point that will ultimately halt completely. For example, after silver hits $1 million per ounce, the price could suddenly tumble to either $900,000 per oz., or it could simply stop trading in terms of paper money altogether, as paper money might just not buy anything at all at some point. It is far more true to say that paper money's value relies more on confidence than silver.

But really, the main point with silver is that today's value is certainly not dependent on investors, but rather, industrial demand, which is far larger, and more stable. As China alone continues to develop and surpass the total consumption level of Western nations, their population will consume silver as does the western world. That would be 6 tenths of an oz. of silver, per year, per person, because silver is an essential part of switches in electronic devices. If China consumed that much silver, times 1.3 billion people, that's 780 million ounces, which is more silver than is currently produced annually by all silver mines in the world. If the world is going to ever run out of things like cheap oil, or copper, it will certainly run out of cheap silver, first.

RE: "He forecasts an average price of $30.10 per troy ounce next year "

Yes, the analysts never predict a price 33% greater, which, as I calculated above, is the average annual gain in silver so far in this bull market. Next year's "average" is always today's price, and always paired with a warning about silver moving down. In less than two days, next year's average price was exceeded this year!

RE: "But he cautions, "The number is only going to be achievable as long as fresh money keeps moving in."

And why wouldn't it? We know that the USA alone will print from $3000 billion to $4000 billion next year. So why wouldn't at least $4.5 billion move into silver next year? Perhaps it's more likely that $400 billion will move into silver next year, and silver's price will be $1000/oz.? Well, maybe not, but a more conservative estimate might be about $10-20 billion, which could drive silver to $50-100/oz., as that's how this trend is developing.

RE: "Silver's all-time high was set in January 1980 at $48.70 an ounce, or $129.32 when adjusted for inflation."

Perhaps the worst lies of all. What do they mean by "inflation"? The CPI index that does not count food, fuel, housing, tuition, or medical expenses? What does CPI count these days? What's left? Imported clothing, goods made in China, and computers?

Instead, if we count inflation as the monetary base, as M3, which is no longer published, we might observe that M3 was $1.8 trillion in 1980, and nearly $18 trillion today, an increase of ten times as much, thus, the true inflation adjusted high is not $129.32/oz., but rather $500/oz.!!!
http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1293724137.php

Serpo

31st December 2010, 12:42 AM

cont........
See, another part of the lie is the false specificity of that .32 at the end of their $129.32, to make it sound so official and supremely accurate, but it's not remotely accurate.

And neither is my estimate of $500/oz. That's a low ball figure. Is money M3? What is M3? M3 included short term bonds. Well most of the bond market is now all "short term" bonds, given that they stopped selling the 30 year bond, and given that interest rates are all so low, all bonds are priced at the near equivalent of actual dollars. And the bond market is far larger than the $18 trillion estimate of M3. The bond market could be $25 trillion to $35 trillion, who knows? Data on that is hard to find.

Much of the bond market is as fraudulent as the paper promises in the silver market. A lot of people don't buy bonds anymore, they just place bets on the direction of interest rates, by buying futures on bonds, or options on bonds, which is an even more fixed and rigged game than the silver price.

Which brings us to derivatives, the bets on bonds, called "interest rate derivatives", which are estimated to be as high as $400 trillion or more.

If that is money, then the inflation that has taken place since 1980 is just off the charts, and will ultimately drive silver prices to far higher than $500/oz.

RE: "This year investors are expected to pile a record $4.5 billion into the silver market, accounting for 24% of the world's total demand, says GFMS Ltd., a metals consulting firm in London. That's the highest level, in dollar terms, in decades. Silver's relatively small market size�$19 billion compared with $170 billion for gold�has also played a role in amplifying the impact of investors, according to GFMS."

Silver's price is moving so fast, it was up nearly $1/oz. in the few days since this WSJ article. Silver's market size, at 700 million oz., times $30/oz., is already $21 billion, not $19 billion, but this is a tiny quibble of a fact.

The point is that $20 billion, or even $4.5 billion, in a world where $3000 billion of new money is being printed annually by the USA alone, and perhaps as high as $8000 billion worldwide, is really, really, really small, even if it's a record number. But the WSJ article never makes comparisons like this, it just warns that $4.5 billion is a lot, "the highest level in decades", and the word billion is a lot, in terms of real things, but it's not a lot in terms of dollars, which are not real things.

RE: "The strength in silver prices has prompted a flurry of development around the globe and pushed anticipated production in 2010 to 733.2 million ounces, up 3.3% from 2009 levels, and up 14% since 2006."

Ah, did you think they said that new silver mine supply will increase 3.3%? No, that's anticipated production. It may be less! They write as if this 3.3% increase is a lot and will act to reduce prices. However, new paper money in the USA alone is about 3 Trillion / 15 Trillion, or 20%! And world population growth is about 1.1%.

RE: "The market is set to see a surplus of 64.4 million ounces in 2010, says Barclays Capital, which could curb prices."

Wait, wait, wait. Silverinstitute.org says the 2009 "surplus" is 137 million oz. of implied net investment, while Barclays says the 2010 surplus will be 64.4 million oz.? Ok, if investors were buying 137 million oz. in 2009, and even more in 2010 to explain the current rise, how will 64.4 million be enough to satisfy them, without the price moving up?

Less silver certainly won't curb prices, unless, by using the word "curb" Barclays is implying a chart formation that looks like a straight line up before leveling off, somewhat like a curb on the side of a road. But Barclays is not implying that, for sure.

The article notes that a few silver mines will be increasing production. No mention is made of any mines that will be decreasing production, or closing altogether, which, of course, happens all the time in the mining business. Mines are depleting assets, and run dry.

That sums up what I needed to refute in the article.

The article makes no mention of any of the following of this year's major news items in silver:

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

1. No mention of the fact that JP Morgan was sued by at least 25 firms for manipulating the silver market. (A new lawsuit against JP Morgan on behalf of SLV investors was just filed, two days after the WSJ article). http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1293546686.php
2. No mention of the BIS reports showing that world banks have a net derivatives exposure of $137 billion of "over the counter" "other preciouse metals" liability, which is a short position, mostly in silver. Links:
http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm
http://www.bis.org/statistics/otcder/dt21c22a.pdf
3. No mention that the BIS changed their own reports, reducing the number for June, 2009, from $203 billion, down $100 billion, to $93 billion, after the US Justice department said it was investigating JP Morgan for silver manipulation.
4. No mention that JP Morgan admitted to being short silver, and wanted to placate internet criticism by attempting to cover their silver.
http://silverstockreport.com/2010/jp-morgan-silver-short.html
5. No mention that the CFTC's Bart Chilton admitted that one large trader had 40% of the silver market at the COMEX.
6. No mention that the CFTC has been investigating silver manipulation for over two years.
7. No mention that the CFTC just delayed imposing position limits on silver.
http://silverstockreport.com/2010/cftc-delay.html
8. No mention of the recent rumor that JP Morgan has two of the CFTC commissioners on their payroll.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E&sns=fb
9. No mention of Andrew McGuire's CFTC testimony of a prediction in advance of a JP Morgan silver manipulation.
10. No mention of Jeff Christion's CFTC admission that the LBMA is leveraged 100 to one with nearly zero actual physical metal backing up most "physical" accounts.
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10586:jeffrey-christians-1001-blunder&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

MY PRICE PREDICTION FOR SILVER: At least a high of $40/oz. by next year, 33% higher than $30 this year.

If the past seven years is any guide, silver's price should continue at pace, if not outperform, the past seven year's average gains of 33% per year. Someday, silver could really blow up much faster than that. Frauds do collapse suddenly. The dollar is fraud. Fractional reserve banking is fraud. Fractional reserve banking in silver is fraud. Most of the financial world is fraud today. Silver is not a fraud and is the opposite of fraud. Silver is not a promise to pay, silver in your hand is evidence that you have been paid in full.

=====

But let's assume, for the benefit of the doubt, that Carolyn Cui is just a very bad researcher on silver, and was not intentionally omitting all the major news items on silver in the past year.

How honest is she? Or the WSJ for that matter?

Here's a WSJ article on silver from May, 2008.

Fundamentals Begin to Weigh On Silver
New Mines' Output, Economic Weakness Could Crimp Prices
By CAROLYN CUI May, 2008.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121098087701600147.html

Ah, not very accurate, and not a very good warning. The WSJ should have warned that the dollar would fall, and that people could protect their purchasing power by buying silver. Did they? Sadly, no. They have never gotten it right on silver in this entire bull market, and are as woefully wrong today, as they were two years ago.

Excerpt: Barclays analyst Suki Cooper, who targets silver's average price at $15.20. "Silver's fundamentals look less compelling this year and are more likely to push prices lower," she wrote in a research note.

Laughable! Exactly as I predicted, these buffoons always predict "same as last year" prices, and are never bullish.

Excerpt: CPM Group, a New York-based commodities research firm, expects demand for silver to hold up this year, and its price to average $18.25.

=====

I've seen better reports on silver from CAROLYN CUI. I've even written to her a time or two. So I can conclude that she is not ignorant, but willfully ignorant, or being misleading on purpose. Perhaps if she does not "toe the line" she will be out of a job, but if your job involves lying, you should probably quit.

So, what should we conclude, and what should we do, in the order of most importance?

1. Buy silver. Buy real silver that you have carried, lifted, and stored in your own vault.
2. Do not trust the Wall Street Journal, or CAROLYN CUI or ROBERT GUY MATTHEWS ever again.
3. Cancel your subscriptions to the Wall Street Journal.
4. Write nasty letters to the WSJ's advertisers, and boycott them (just kidding, don't waste your time).
5. Subscribe to the free newsletter at the Silver Stock Report.
6. Share this report in your own blogs online, or on facebook.
7. Write your own refutations of future mainstream hit pieces on silver, exposing their intentional lies and misinformation, and lack of information.
8. Write to Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com and Robert Guy Matthews at robertguy.matthews@wsj.com and ask them for their honest answers and justifications to the accurate information presented here, just for the fun of watching them squirm.

Serpo

31st December 2010, 12:46 AM

Rick Rule Very Bullish On Silver For 2011

By: Peter J. Cooper

The perennial star of the Agora Financial Forum held each year in Vancouver (click here), veteran stock broker Rick Rule came out strongly in defense of silver as a top pick for 2011 in an interview on King World News.

Asked whether silver shortages would continue he said: ‘I suspect it’s true. One of the things that happens at least in the near-term, shortages and the price rises that they cause ironically exacerbate shortages. Meaning that more people are attracted to speculations in silver as the price goes up. The price of course has gone up because of that attraction.

ETF buying

Specifically the amounts of silver that have been bought by the ETF’s and by Sprott Physical Silver, have driven up prices. But the silver they have taken off of the market has not been as easily available to mints that have themselves faced increased demand from retail coin buyers. It’s been very aggressive buying demand that’s really changed the price of silver.’

Then this veteran precious metal watcher turned to pricing: ‘Gold and silver are in some senses unlike other markets in that they are driven by both of the primary investment motivators in the world, that is greed and fear.

The fear buyer buys gold and silver as a consequence of his or her fear about economic conditions, and the resulting price momentum encourages the greed buyer. The greed buyer’s buying in the short-term validates the suspicion of the fear buyer, and you have what are called echo bull markets. I think what you have now is a classic example in silver of an echo bull market.

If you remember the markets in the late ’70’s, the 1977 to 1980 bull market, these echo, or hyperbolic bull markets can continue for an amazingly long period of time.’

Of the prospects for a big spike for sliver he concluded: ‘If past is prologue, that’s very possible. The other interesting thing about silver is on the supply side. So little silver is produced as a consequence of silver mines, that is primary silver mines. So much more of it is produced as an adjunct of the mining of other metals, lead, zinc, copper, gold and things like that. What’s interesting about that is that increases in the silver price do not necessarily result in an increase in supply of silver because their production is tied to other metals.

Base metal connection

Now, it’s also true that the price of base metals are also up, and in a normal market we would see as a consequence of that increased base metals production. What’s interesting about the market that we are in is that we are still credit constrained. Meaning that although the banks have ample liquidity for short-term lending as a consequence of quantitative easing, they don’t have enough on their books to make long-term project loans.

These are the types of loans necessary to build great big base metals mines which would increase the amount of base metals and hence increase the supply of silver. So we are in a very interesting supply/demand situation where near-term demand is strong, but the fact that the demand is strong and the fact that the price of silver is rising has not and may not for a while increase supplies. It’s a very, very imbalanced market in my view.’

ArabianMoney notes that our leading local commentator in Dubai, Jeff Rhodes, CEO of International Assets has also made silver his pick of 2011 as he explained to listeners of Dubai Eye. Jeff is a veteran precious metals trader and claims to have made the last trade in gold at its previous all-time high in 1980.

He is nervous about tensions in the Korean peninsula and points to a complete distrust of paper currencies, particularly the dollar and euro. His view is that even with a 74 per cent increase in 2011 silver is still incredibly undervalued

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1293458683.php

Serpo

1st January 2011, 05:34 PM

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Serpo

21st January 2011, 12:38 PM

James Turk has alerted King World News that silver is in backwardation. Turk spoke with KWN saying, “Silver is in backwardation which is an extremely important development. Most are aware that when backwardation occurs, the spot price is higher than the futures price. Backwardation happens regularly in most commodities, but it is rare in the precious metals.”

January 21, 2011

James Turk - Silver in Backwardation, Set to Explode
Silver is in backwardation not just in the short-term, this time it is extending twelve months forward!

The last time this happened Eric was in January of 2009. Over the next few weeks silver rose from about $10.50 to $14.50, a roughly a 40% move higher. The key to understanding backwardation is that the price must rise to entice holders of physical metal to sell and accept a national currency in return. I think we can expect a similar event to repeat over the next few weeks.

A similar type of move would clearly put silver well above its previous high. What this backwardation shows is that there is a disconnect between the physical and the paper markets in silver. As I said previously, the silver shorts simply cannot hold the paper price down here any longer without seriously discrediting the paper silver market as a price discovery mechanism.

Gold is not in backwardation, nevertheless the demand for physical gold is extremely intense. With the sentiment indicators at very low levels, it suggests we are about to see a stunning short covering rally in gold.”

Weakness in the metals can end as quickly as it began. When the metals turn, this next move should be breathtaking.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/21_James_Turk_-_Silver_in_Backwardation%2C_Set_to_Explode.html

Serpo

21st January 2011, 01:26 PM

The Value Case for Silver

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

-- Posted 21 January, 2011 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 1 Source: SilverSeek.com

The prices for commodities can change quickly and wildly, and in many cases, investors can hold commodities for years without any realization of profits.

The wild cyclicality is what has kept many out of the commodities markets, and it is the reason why so many value investors choose to ignore commodities as a broad investment alternative. In respectful disagreement, making the case for a value investment in silver is a cakewalk at worst.

Securities and Commodities

Stocks and commodities are nothing alike, except when they are. The world's most popular and most highly regarded value investors (many of whom don't have a favorable opinion of commodities) have laid down investment traits that, contrary to their viewpoints on silver, make it a very attractive value investment.

Among the basic tenets of value investing are that companies are boring and operate in boring industries. Ideally, value investing companies are those that many people take objection to, and that very few investors own.

Rumors are excellent, even preferred, and it would be best if the investment were in a low-growth industry. It has to be a product that people will keep buying indefinitely, and under the best case scenario, the company is buying itself back through share purchases.

Drawing Comparisons

Compare the above commonly adopted value-investing tenets to silver.

Silver is not only boring, but mining silver is a pretty dull exercise. Most investors still take objection to silver, and few, despite the recent surge, own physical metals. There isn't a single industry with more rumors than metals production, and in fact, several organizations are dedicated to uncovering such hidden evidence of backroom deals and price manipulation.

People will continue to buy silver indefinitely, as it is in every electronic known to man, as well as prized for its beauty. While silver ounces cannot buy back other silver ounces, it is safe to say that the supply of silver is being depleted, just as shares of stock are depleted in buybacks.

Silver is the ultimate value investment because it always has intrinsic value, even if it has no intrinsic price. And where even the most unlevered companies can go belly up when the markets turn, silver can't go to zero, nor can it disappear. Where executives, auditors, and others have violated the public's trust in making their companies appear more valuable, all evidence in the silver market points to lies intended to make silver less valuable.

Commodity Similarities and Differences

Silver's commodity cousins are what keep it in check. While the world can produce a near infinite amount of corn, wheat, sugar, etc., all the silver (and gold…don't forget about gold!) is already on earth. No more can be produced, and eventually, the only silver that will be left is that which we can economically recover.

The take home here is that silver is a value play. The metal virtually defines what the world “intrinsic” really means, both in and out of the financial world. Very few own it, everyone uses it, and it is very, very limited in supply. Whether it goes to $5,000 or $25,000 per ounce isn't important. Understanding that it will not lose value in the long-term is what is important.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1295593200.php

Serpo

31st January 2011, 03:31 AM

Last weekend`s Silver Market update turned out to be pretty much correct as while silver did drop to new lows for this correction it ended the week with a strong blast of upside energy that is believed to mark a reversal to the upside.

On our 8-month chart we can see that following failure of support at the $28 level, silver worked its way lower but certainly did not collapse and then, after making a new low in the early trade on Friday, it suddenly surged to close at the high for the week, leaving behind a pair of candlesticks on Thursday and Friday that are together known as a "Bullish Engulfing Pattern" and which noramlly signify an upside reversal. During the week it became clear that there are a lot of buy orders clustered around the $25 level, which is kind of sad really, as Friday's action suggests that it won't drop back to that level and that therefore these would be buyers will be left on the station watching as the train pulls out without them. The breach of the $28 level just over a week ago is thought to have been the handiwork of The Cartel seeking to shake people out the better to cover their shorts - they didn't fool us though as we had this gambit flagged in last week's update. Before leaving this chart a final point to note is that silver is now quite heavily oversold as made clear by the MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart.

Another important development last week was a further significant reduction in the Commercial short and Large Spec long positions that we can see on our COT chart below, so that they are now well below the levels prevailing last July that preceded the massive Fall rally in silver. What does this mean? - first of all it makes further significant declines in the silver price highly unlikely and secondly it makes another thumping great rally very possible and it is likely to get underway very soon..

The conclusion to all this is that anyone with a sizeable silver short position is probably going to find themselves in a very unenviable predicament before much longer.

http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1296414902.php

Serpo

6th February 2011, 11:14 PM

By Adrian Douglas

On September 21, 2010 I published an article entitled “More Forensic Evidence of Gold & Silver Price Manipulation”. In that article I showed how silver from 2003 to 2010 had never traded freely at all; I showed that silver was algorithmically traded with gold and there was a very clear relationship between the price of gold and the price of silver. For those who haven’t read the previous article the following figure 1 (figure 4 in the previous article) demonstrates the inter-relationship.

Figure 1 Cross-plot of Silver versus Gold 2003-2010

Figure 1 is a cross-plot of the price of gold against the price of silver for every trading day from June 2003 to September 2010. There are two linear relationships, one is pre-2008 (black line) and the second is post 2008 (green line). The best fit equations for the two data sets are also given on the chart.

The stunning revelation from the data analysis was that if on any day I knew what the price of gold was I would be able to calculate the silver price from the equation of the relationship! How is that possible in a free market? It simply is not possible and so the conclusion is that silver is not in a free market but is manipulated to move algorithmically with the price of gold. I have written many articles that show that gold is itself manipulated and suppressed (for example, see Gold Market is not “Fixed”, it’s Rigged)

I have updated the chart of Figure 1 which is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Cross-plot of Silver versus Gold 2003-2011

Since September 2010 silver has broken its golden shackles. The algorithmic trading that kept the price of silver subdued for seven years has been completely annihilated.

On Friday silver closed in complete backwardation on the Comex. Spot silver closed at $29.075/oz while FEB 2011 closed at $29.064/oz and DEC 2015 closed at $29.026/oz. I believe this is the first time in history that this has happened. Silver traded in backwardation between the spot price and futures contract up to one year out during the blatantly manipulative precious metals bashing of January, but now the entire futures structure is in backwardation. This is a sure sign there are shortages of silver because it means that buyers will pay a premium for silver delivered sooner rather than later.

Signs of shortages have also been apparent from a shrinking silver inventory on the Comex in the face of rising prices. The registered inventory stands at a paltry 43 Mozs. In addition there is lots of anecdotal evidence that there are tight supplies everywhere. There are reports of refineries refusing to take new orders due to insufficient silver feedstock.

News out of China recently showed that China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010 to 3,500 tonnes (112 Million ozs). China has traditionally been a silver exporter. For example, in 2005 China made net exports of 3,000 tonnes of silver.

The US mint reported last week a record month in silver eagle sales in January of 6.4 million ozs.

This update of my previous work adds more fuel to the fire that the dynamics of the silver market have dramatically changed. Because silver has been suppressed for so long we do not know what its free market price should be, but we are going to find out soon and I strongly suspect it will be many multiples of the current price.

Adrian Douglas
Editor of Market Force Analysis
Board Member of GATA

February 5, 2011

www.marketforceanalysis.com

Libertarian_Guard

7th February 2011, 03:05 AM

Serpro

I need to bump your last post from Adrian Douglas.

This is significant.

Thanks

Serpo

11th February 2011, 09:13 PM

So is this........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h66R4U-Eybs

Serpo

12th February 2011, 09:37 PM

At the peak of the last precious metal bull market in January 1980, it took 17.4 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Thereafter, the ratio turned and started climbing higher. By February 1991, 101.8 ounces of silver were needed to exchange for one ounce of gold. Silver was trading at only $3.50 per ounce, down 93% from its previous bull market peak.

Silver back then was “dirt cheap”, but it would not get any cheaper. Silver turned the corner as value oriented buyers recognized a bargain. Since then the price of silver has been generally rising, and has been doing so faster than the spectacular rise in the price of gold. The result is a long-term downtrend in gold/silver ratio. In other words, since 1991, silver has outperformed gold.

Last week, the ratio touched 45.0 and ended Friday at 45.3. It was the lowest daily and weekly close for the ratio since February 1998, which is a significant date. That is the month Warren Buffett announced that he had acquired 130 million ounces of silver. His footprint is visible on the above chart.

We know from his disclosures that he began buying silver around $4 in July 1997. The ratio then was in the mid-70s. But note what happened to the ratio as Buffett accumulated his hoard over the next several months, culminating with the announcement of his purchase. The gold/silver ratio fell by nearly 50%, so that only 41.3 ounces of silver were needed to buy one ounce of gold. Silver was clearly outperforming gold, just like it has been doing over the last several months – as shown in the above chart by the remarkable drop in the ratio.

The ratio has now reached an important point. It is breaking through support, which is illustrated by the lower red line on the above chart.

Several previous attempts to break through support have failed, with the result that for many years the ratio has continued marking time within a trading range bounded by the parallel red lines. That trading range now looks mature and ‘ripe for picking’.

One never knows of course how the markets will unfold in the future. But I expect that the ratio will finally break through support, which is an event that I have been looking and waiting for patiently over many years.

If I am right and the ratio knifes through the low 40s and below the Buffett point, there is no clear short-term target. Given the momentum evident in the above chart and the bullish fundamental factors impacting silver at present – like its unprecedented backwardation – a drop to at least the low 30s seems highly likely, but I don’t rule out the possibility of the ratio falling even lower.

My long-term target for the ratio is 17. It is approximately the average level at which the two precious metals were exchanged for hundreds of years prior to the arrival of fiat currencies in 1971. It has been my view that a 17-to-1 ratio is attainable by 2013-2015, but given what seems to be shaping up, we probably won’t need to wait that long.

The unprecedented backwardation in silver has one clear signal. The potential for a massive short squeeze is building. If one occurs – as I believe is becoming increasingly likely – there is no telling how quickly a 17-to-1 ratio could be achieved.

http://www.fgmr.com/watch-the-gold-silver-ratio.html

Serpo

13th February 2011, 10:36 AM

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/2/12_John_Embry.html

Serpo

16th February 2011, 04:07 AM

From its $50 high in January 1980 to its $3.50 low in February 1991, the weak hands were shaken out. At that point, the accumulation by strong hands – who were buying because the recognized that silver was an exceptional bargain – became the dominant force. Their buying power was stronger than the selling pressure of the weak hands, and the price of silver responded by starting to climb. It was classic stage one action, but here’s the important point.

Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled.

I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010.

Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.

http://www.fgmr.com/silver-approaching-stage-two-of-its-bull-market.html

undgrd

16th February 2011, 06:32 AM

IMO...the only way we're going to hit a 17:1 ratio is if PM's are priced to the moon. Over $200/oz of silver.

Serpo

18th February 2011, 01:51 AM

There have been numerous reports of bullion shortages in many parts around the world, along with rising premiums. And the two explanations – we’re running out of gold! and, it’s just a manufacturing bottleneck – are at odds with one another. So, who’s right?

First, the data. The following has been reported since New Year’s eve horn-blowers were put away:

Report from China: “…premiums for gold bars jumped to their highest level in two years.”

A director at Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong: "I don't have any gold. Premiums are very high. Some say they have no stocks on hand."
A dealer in Singapore: "There's a sudden surge in demand. Demand from China is very strong and they are paying very high premiums. Refiners can't meet the demand.”

World Gold Council report: “…gold imports by India likely reached a record last year due to increased investment demand. Imports will probably be the highest for India in its history.”

Nigel Moffatt, treasurer of the Perth Mint: “…demand for gold bullion has been unrelenting since gold dropped below $1,400 an ounce. At the moment demand is such that we cannot meet all the enquiries we are getting. Demand for our coins and medallions is strong, but the biggest demand is coming from banks and traders looking for kilo bars.”

Eric Sprott, chief investment officer of Sprott Asset Management, after having difficulty locating enough bullion for their new silver fund: "Frankly, we are concerned about the illiquidity in the physical silver market. We believe the delays involved in the delivery of physical silver to the Trust highlight the disconnect that exists between the paper and physical markets for silver."

2010 gold Buffalo coins are largely unavailable from dealers.

Sales of silver Eagles set a new record in January – by the 19th of the month. Already, 4.6 million coins have been sold, an all-time monthly high since the coin's release in 1986.

Based on this data alone, you might come to the conclusion that yes, we’re running low on bullion supply. But most industry execs I spoke to insist this is a “bottleneck” issue: current demand is greater than current stock on hand, or is coming in faster than mints can produce. In other words, it’s a fabrication issue, not a supply deficit. A Treasury rep said as much.

You’ll recall from 2008 how supply was difficult to come by and premiums were roughly double what they are now. Some think it will be “lesson learned” this time around; mints now know how to prepare for another spike in demand. Many have added workers, shifts, and facilities. The U.S. Mint stopped producing the less popular coins and now focuses on those that are most in demand.

To a large extent, I believe the bottleneck argument is exactly what’s happening. It’s no different than the store that sells old-fashioned wooden rocking chairs suddenly getting swamped with customers when an antique dealer declares they’ll be valuable collectibles in the future. Collectors rush to buy, and the store doesn’t have enough rocking chairs in its warehouse. But they’re not running out of wood. And they’ll likely be better prepared when they hear the dealer is coming out with a book.

It’s true there’s only so much gold coming to market every year (total 2010 supply is estimated to have been about 115 million ounces), but in the big picture, there’s been enough. It’s also true that orders from the 2008 rush were eventually filled. However, I think the “bottleneck” and “we’re running out” arguments miss the point, because they both focus on supply.

Demand is what I’m concerned about. Now try this data:

According to International Strategy and Investment Group, gold ownership currently represents 0.6% of total financial assets. If it rose to just 1.2% – still less than half its 1980 level – it would require an additional 917.1 million ounces, or 16% of aggregate gold worldwide. This amount is equal to about 10 years of current global production.

Investment demand represented 53% of all gold demand in 1979; today, it represents just 32%. Coin demand represented 37% of all demand in 1979; today it’s less than 14%.

Gold and gold mining stocks represented 26% of all global assets in 1981 (high inflation), and 20% in 1932 (high deflation). Today, gold and gold mining shares represent about 1% of global assets.

The market cap of the entire gold industry is about the size of Microsoft, is less than Exxon Mobil, and is 10 times smaller than the banking industry. The whole of the silver industry is smaller than Starbucks.

Silver mine production is insufficient to meet current demand. The only way silver needs are fulfilled is from scrap coming to market. Miners don’t produce enough on their own.

There are approximately 40% more earthlings right now than there are ounces of gold that have ever been mined. That includes every ounce used in jewelry, electronics, and dental. Further, if every ounce of supply last year were made into coins and bars for investment purchase, it would amount to less than two one-hundredths of an ounce, or about half a gram, for every man, woman, and child on earth. This means 0.018% of the global population – about one in every 55 people – could buy a one-ounce gold coin this year.

Yes, there is a bottleneck. But with this recent spike in demand, it appears some mints still aren’t equipped to keep up. Are we nearing a tipping point where in spite of the increased efficiency and preparedness, requests from buyers will outweigh available supply? Imagine demand continuing to accelerate, and you can see where this might be headed. I think this is the side of the equation to watch.

Andy Schectman of bullion dealer Miles Franklin told me last summer that, “Based on what I know, it’s my opinion that if 5% of this country put 5% of their money into gold, there would be nothing left tomorrow morning.” In other words, even if supply is sufficient at present, what happens if demand, say, doubles, as the above data show is possible?

Right now in North America you can still get bullion, but we’re clearly on a path where demand could overwhelm the system, making purchases very difficult. When that point arrives, many investors will wish they hadn’t worried so much about price.

Imagine Doug Casey is right about the future value of the dollar: zero. Imagine how high inflation would rocket in such a scenario.

Bottleneck, meet desperation.

[The Chinese and other governments are gobbling up gold as fast as they can, adding vast amounts to their already large holdings. Because they know something many mainstream investors don’t: the U.S. dollar is on its last leg. To find out how to protect yourself – and to profit – watch this free video.]

-- Posted Friday, 18 February 2011

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1298012940.php

Serpo

18th February 2011, 01:52 AM

IMO...the only way we're going to hit a 17:1 ratio is if PM's are priced to the moon. Over $200/oz of silver.

As opposed to being priced under the moon..........haha

Serpo

18th February 2011, 02:11 AM

This ratio chart from earlier post....

Silver now below 45 mark at this exact time around 43.5 ratio.

Now (next day ) ratio is 42.8

Neuro

18th February 2011, 03:15 AM

I believe we will see silver at G/S ratio of 38 (low of 98), as gold tangents it's all time high of $1430, thus a silver price of around $37, if gold continues up above 1430 , G/S ratio could continue go down below that. If gold turns at 1430 the G/S ratio will go up, I am leaning towards that. I do think that the G/S ratio of the past 25-30 years will be looked at by historians as an anomaly, that is underway of getting corrected now. Probably people will think it was weird Silver was so incredibly cheap. Stories about people putting out monster boxes at the curb and the garbage collectors refusing to take it, etc... ;D

Serpo

19th February 2011, 03:42 AM

This is an extremely important chart.
1) After yesterday, you could have expected a soft opening. You didn't get it.
2) The CME raised margins. In December, silver dropped 10% in 2 days following a similar announcement. Today, price vaulted higher.
3) Understand this. Silver went down into the close as speculators who piled into the March contract over the past 48 hours liquidated and took profits rather than hold over the three-day weekend and meet their margin calls. This is totally, 100% natural and not significant in any way.
4) At around 2:00, Blythe may or may not have tried a raid. Its impossible to know for sure. Either way, the new support level of 32.30 held.
5) AND THIS IS BIG...On a Friday, heading into a 3-day weekend, from 2:30 through the Globex close, we rallied about $0.35. HUGE. SIGNIFICANT. RALLY. This tells me that our BoS...those that are standing for delivery in two weeks, seized the opportunity presented them by the weak-handed longs that sold into the close. The BoS BOUGHT. They are resolute. Margins don't matter. They are not afraid. They are ready for next week.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/

this chart also at link if too small....

Serpo

20th February 2011, 07:44 PM

Good live chart ,for gold or silver or ratio,plus

http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

Serpo

24th February 2011, 02:05 PM

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-naUTJzQoclw/TWhFQmr0JnI/AAAAAAAAAHo/QSdpFmSFLTQ/s1600/snapshot-454.png

Serpo

27th February 2011, 12:13 PM

On the Verge of a Gigantic Move Higher!
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1298828100.php

Serpo

27th February 2011, 12:14 PM

SILVER

Serpo

27th February 2011, 10:56 PM

Ya never know with Clive....

By: Clive Maund

After last week's update called for a near-term top in silver we got one more up day, thanks to the antics of the Libyan "fruitcake" digging his heels in and resisting being swept away. After that silver did indeed start to correct back although it ended the week with an up day.

On its 8-month chart we can see that silver backed off after hitting an adjusted "bullhorn" target - in last week's update we had targetted it at a trendline drawn across the early and late December peaks, but it exceeded that, so we then found that it had actually stopped at the trendline drawn from the November high. Now it is very overbought, as is evident from the intermediate MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart, so if the situation in the Mid East starts to cool, we could very easily see a substantial reaction shortly. However, we should remain aware that this situation is very fluid and if the problems in the Mid East intensify, leading to gold breaking out to new highs, then silver could break above the restraining trendline shown which would be expected to lead to a very steep ascent, but as set out in the Gold Market update, price and volume action in stocks is portending a correction that could be severe.

http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1298839367.php

Serpo

18th March 2011, 05:36 PM

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

Neuro

20th March 2011, 09:44 AM

Silver still looks good. I sold off a small amount when silver was close to $37, glad now I didn't sell more. It has had a healthy pullback to mid 33, I think we will see it go up towards $40 within the next 2 weeks. However there are some external uncertainties, like meltdown in Japan and escalation of the Libyan war... Not sure though what short term effects these may have on POS...

Serpo

24th March 2011, 05:57 PM

Chart on G/S ratio

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ayTBUOeIes8/TYtZOI8xVZI/AAAAAAAAEU8/TuRxwo9djYI/s1600/GSR.JPG

Silver Review and Outlook

By: Theodore Butler
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1300983928.php

Silver Review and Outlook

By: Theodore Butler

-- Posted 24 March, 2011 |

CAMBRIDGE HOUSE PHOENIX SILVER CONFERENCE
February 18, 2011
Theodore Butler’s Speech

Good afternoon and thank you all for coming out today. I’d like to thank Joe Martin for inviting me and arranging this conference. This is my third Phoenix Silver Conference, so I thought I might review the silver market by first recapping the highlights of my first two speeches here and then cover what has transpired over the past year.

In February 2009, we had just come off that rotten year for silver that 2008 will be remembered for, when the price fell from over $20 to under $9. As it turned out, that rotten performance in 2008 was also the basis for the slew of civil lawsuits that emerged late last year, alleging JPMorgan and others of manipulating the price of silver back then. When I spoke in 2009, the price had risen back to $14 and would subsequently rise to $19 later in the year. The theme of my speech two years ago was “Silver’s Past, Present and Future.”

I described how I caught the silver fever, more than 25 years ago, when a brokerage customer first challenged me to explain how the world could be consuming more silver than it was producing for year after year without prices increasing. That challenge by Izzy Friedman, who would later become a good friend and my silver mentor, changed my life, although not necessarily for the better until many years later. At first, it was more like a curse. After much thought and study, I did find the answer to Izzy’s challenge, which set my life on an unanticipated course. The answer to the question of how could you consume more of a commodity than was produced for a long time without prices rising was, you couldn’t. It was impossible under our understanding of the law of supply and demand. Yet the impossible was occurring. Here’s the qualifier – it was impossible in a “free market.” You could only have a situation where consumption was greater than production in a market where the price wasn’t free. You could only have a situation where you consumed more of a commodity than you were producing, eating up inventories all the while, if the price was fixed or controlled, like a government mandated price control during a war or emergency. But this was back in 1985, after silver had run from a few dollars per ounce to $50 during the Hunt Bros episode and back to $5. There was no obvious silver price controls in place, as silver was the most volatile commodity of them all. Then what the heck could explain how prices were now stuck at $5 with an obvious consumption deficit in place?

The answer, I discovered, was that the price of silver was artificially depressed to a very low level by excessive and concentrated short selling on the world’s leading precious metals exchange, the COMEX. I have to tell you that when the light bulb went off in my head, it was exhilarating. It was a true Eureka moment. It was a blinding flash of truth and knowledge. Then reality set in. Please remember, this is still 1985, 26 years ago. Armed with what I was convinced was an incredible new insight, all I had to do was explain it to everyone. I thought that would be the easy part and the more than a year that it took me to solve the problem in the first place was the hard part. There’s a line from a great Rod Stewart song that goes, “look how wrong you can be.” That doesn’t come close to describing how wrong I was in assuming I could explain how silver was manipulated by concentrated short selling. It would take me years to fully explain it even to Izzy, and he was the smartest person I knew and had given me the challenge in the first place.

I did try to take the high road and went first to those in the industry, including the COMEX itself and the other big silver exchange at the time, the Chicago Board of Trade and the federal regulator, the CFTC, to not only explain the problem but how to fix it with position limits. I also wrote to and met with silver miners and industry analysts. I honestly thought it would be a relatively simple matter of explaining the situation to anyone connected to silver and everyone would understand it and rush to fix the problem. I got nowhere. In reality, I got less than nowhere and in more ways than I care to remember it came to have a negative impact on my life. Nobody wanted to hear that silver was manipulated in price. Many still don’t want to hear that. As a result, I entered into a sort of self-imposed exile from what had been my profession for a good number of years. What I had underestimated was the difficulty in explaining my discovery due to the complex nature of the issue and the natural reluctance on the part of others. I didn’t fully appreciate how the exchange and the CFTC wouldn’t want to hear about a manipulation they should have caught themselves and would fight me on every contention I made. I was even more amazed how those in the industry, but not responsible for regulation, openly scoffed at suggestions that the price of silver may have been manipulated to the downside. I think this was because we all had some belief that we had free markets and my suggestion to the contrary clashed with those core beliefs. Whatever the reasons, I got nowhere.

One good thing that developed out of all this was that I developed a deep knowledge of silver and the silver market. I heard every counter argument possible about why I was full of hooey about silver being openly manipulated in price, that strictly for self-defense against embarrassment I forced myself to learn everything possible about silver. I read everything about silver that was available and thought about it constantly. I wasn’t looking to be a know it all; I just wanted to be sure I was correct about something important that I discovered that needed to be fixed. Fast forward ten or fifteen years and I became exposed to the Internet and began to read and write about silver on that medium. Please remember I had not been professionally involved with silver during this time, I just kept up with it privately. Quite accidently, I formed a relationship with Jim Cook, the president of Investment Rarities, in late 2000, when he asked me to write about silver for his firm’s customers. This enabled me to write and think about silver full-time. This was like a ghetto kid who shot hoops all day long getting a scholarship or a professional basketball contract. I delved into silver with a new vigor.

Today, the allegations of a silver manipulation are not received with the universal rejection of 25 years ago. Of course, not everyone accepts the silver manipulation argument. Certainly, the COMEX and their new owner, the CME Group, continues to look the other way and tries to ignore the growing awareness of a crime in progress. The CFTC, under Chairman Gary Gensler, seems to be coming around, but is still ham-strung by past denials of a silver manipulation. And those who strongly denied a silver manipulation existed in the past are loathe to change their minds due to having to admit to being wrong. But more people seem to grasp the issue daily.

The very best thing about my allegations of manipulation in silver being ignored for almost 20 years is that the manipulation continued in force. Why this was so good was because the artificial low price did two things. It allowed regular investors to buy silver at bargain prices and it caused world inventories to be depleted because we continued to consume more silver than we were producing until 2006. The law of supply and demand is governed by price. Too high of a price and supply gets increased and demand is curtailed. Too low of a price and supply is restricted and demand gets increased. This is the basic cornerstone of any free economic system. Since the silver manipulation resulted in an artificially low price, we consumed way too much silver and produced less than we would have had the price not been depressed. While it was extremely frustrating for me to watch this evolve over the years, since I knew the price was manipulated but was unable to convince the regulators; I also knew, that the law of supply and demand would ultimately result in a shortage and soaring silver prices.

Since I knew that those investing in silver would be richly rewarded, I held nothing back in my promotion of silver. Since I was convinced about the facts and that the manipulation continued and still continues to this day, I concentrated on convincing people to buy silver. Thanks to the many hundreds of articles that Investment Rarities sent to their clients and published on the Internet, the word got out and people bought silver, quite literally by the ton. This has turned out to be the greatest win-win story in history. You have to remember that not only was silver not promoted by traditional investment advisors, they openly discouraged its purchase. Despite the naysayers, over the past five and ten years silver has been the best practical investment anyone could have bought. Silver is up more than seven times from the lows. Based upon everything that I study, silver should continue to be the best investment going forward. Someday, it will be time to sell silver, but that day is not here.

Two years ago, I talked about the giant elephant in this room that represented the silver manipulation, and how too many industry observers pretended it didn’t exist. To a great extent, that is changing. As more evidence rolls in that silver has been subject to a long-term price manipulation, it will be harder for that manipulation to continue. Even if the growing evidence was not enough to end the manipulation, I pointed out last year that the manipulation would end due to an inevitable shortage. There are numerous signs that silver is experiencing a shortage in physical supply. The key takeaway here is that according to the immutable law of supply and demand, if a price of anything is suppressed low enough and long enough, a shortage must result at some point. It looks increasingly clear that silver is close to that point of shortage.

In both my previous speeches here, I highlighted the differences between gold and silver; about how, over the past 70 years, the world’s above ground inventory of silver bullion had fallen by almost 10 billion ounces to one billion ounces today. And how, over that same 70 years, the world inventory of gold had doubled to 5 billion ounces. This was an almost unbelievable transformation - from a situation where world silver inventories were much larger than gold, to a circumstance where gold is much more plentiful than silver. I made the key point that less than one tenth of one percent of the world’s investors were aware that silver was rarer than gold, and as the true facts came to be known, it would be reflected in silver outperforming gold tremendously. That outperformance of silver compared to gold appears to be kicking in.

On my last two appearances here, the gold/silver ratio was around 70 to 1. Today, that ratio has tightened in to 45 to 1. The ratio movement can be misleading, as I try to regularly remind subscribers. The best way of fully comprehending the changes in the gold/silver ratio is by looking at it in ways that measure how well an investment in each would have turned out. If one would have put $10,000 into gold two years ago, at $985/oz, it would be worth $14,000 up almost 40%. But had someone invested in silver instead, at $14.40, the $10,000 would be worth over $21,000, up 112%. You would have made almost three times more by investing in silver than in gold. I believe that will continue to be the case.

If an investor had unlimited funds to be deployed, I would just say buy silver. But because investable funds are most usually not unlimited, I have been suggesting for the last ten years that those investors light on investable funds but heavily invested in gold, to switch some gold holdings into silver. To use gold as a source of funds, if need be, in order to buy silver. The facts argue that silver should do better than gold. For one thing, basic common sense should tell you that a commodity on the verge of a shortage should go up faster and stronger in price than a commodity not indicating signs of a shortage. I don’t want to state categorically that gold is unlikely to ever go into a shortage scenario because you never want to say never. But because gold is not heavily consumed industrially, it makes a shortage in gold unlikely. That’s not to say gold can’t or won’t go up in price, just that it won’t likely be in a shortage. Silver is very likely to go into a shortage and that’s a big plus for silver.

Plus, silver is much more under-owned than gold. Most of the big hedge funds, for instance, have bought gold in a pretty big way and very few have bought silver. That sets the stage for them buying silver at some point. Certainly, they won’t be selling silver until they first buy it. The main reason silver should continue to outperform gold is there is much less silver available for purchase, both from existing inventories and as a function of new production being available. For example, the world needs to absorb about $70 to $75 billion of net new gold for investment purposes each year, while the number in silver is something like $4 or $5 billion. Because of that, it wouldn’t take a big increase in investment buying greatly impacting the price to the upside.

Finally, last year I had some very good things to say about the new chairman of the CFTC, Gary Gensler. I have been asked if I have finally given up on Gensler doing anything about the silver manipulation and the enactment of legitimate speculative position limits. In a word – no, I have not given up on him. The pace to legitimate position limits in silver has been agonizingly slow. But, at least there is a pace, something that was lacking until he became chairman less than 2 years ago. Yes, there is an ongoing silver investigation by the Enforcement Division of the CFTC, now in its third calendar year and that is shameful. But you have to put things in perspective. A manipulation that has persisted for decades must be given time to end. I sense Gensler is on the right path. Also, I must acknowledge the courageous role of Commissioner Bart Chilton over the recent past. There is no doubt in my mind that Gensler and Chilton are dedicated public servants whose primary interest is in making our markets more transparent and fair. But they won’t succeed without out help.

Next week, I will publish my comments to the CFTC on the issue of position limits. I will ask you do the same. At first, I was tempted to skip writing to the Commission, yet again, on the matter of position limits. After all, many thousands of public comments had already been submitted in the past. But a number of things changed my mind. First, I heard from independent legal counsel who emphasized just how important it was to reply to this particular comment period. I also heard the same thing from a trusted source within the CFTC. Yes, there are some very honorable people within the Commission.

But the deciding influence was a thought given to me by my son, Ross. In discussing the momentous developments in Egypt and the Middle East, he pointed out the courage and conviction of the people demonstrating in the street and what they appear to be accomplishing. Compared to what they have endured, he asked how hard is it to write to the Commission on a matter of importance to those involved. Please keep that in mind when it comes time to write to the Commission on position limits.
For subscription information to Ted Butler’s private newsletter, please go to www.butlerresearch.com

beefsteak

24th March 2011, 10:40 PM

Martin Armstrong, (released from 11 yrs in prison) has published a 3/1/2011 Newsletter "HOW and WHEN" which I just found t'day. 11 pages, last couple speak specifically to silver. First serious pre-view wrt. silver starts on page 7--
second column, half-way down. Do kind of hafta read the prior 6 pages to understand the foundation he lays for understanding phases and transition phase price action based upon his ECM theory/observations.

Has several interesting comments re: strength in silver, and pointing out the PHASE TRANSITION action currently going on.

My apologies if this has already been posted. I did look higher on this thread but didn't see it...

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/how%20and%20when%2003-01-2011.pdf

Serpo

24th March 2011, 11:26 PM

A phase transition is the transformation of a thermodynamic system from one phase or state of matter to another.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition

Silver is in a phase transition from one state or level to another.....

gunDriller

25th March 2011, 08:07 AM

well, Jeez, silver is 3/4 of the way to $50.

ever been on a one-day car trip when you were 3/4 of the way there ?

that last 1/4 goes by real fast. silver only has to increase in price by 33%.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

and, looking at the historical charts, silver got to $25 solidly back in November 2010.

5 months ago. to get from $25 to $37.50 was about a 50% increase.

in other words, at the current rate of increase, silver will be at $50 in fewer than 5 months. :o

i wonder if the past typical "summer pullback" will happen this year.

StackerKen

25th March 2011, 09:34 PM

Waitin for a pullback ;)
:ROFL:

I was just peeking in for a sec and saw the price of silver..then decided to look at this thread...and was skiming and this post really cracked me up! I had to post and say thanks

Edit to add...so much that i decided to start a tread..... ;D

Serpo

29th March 2011, 12:06 AM

Paradigm Shift

-- Posted Tuesday, 29 March 2011 Source: GoldSeek.com

]As an investor, sometimes the best action you can take is no action. Jason Hamlin of the Gold Stock Bull newsletter didn't start snapping up stocks on news of disaster in Japan and military attacks in Libya. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Jason tells why he's holding his ground and how macro issues spanning the globe could push precious metal prices.

The Gold Report: Jason, the gold price fell dramatically after the Japanese earthquake and subsequent tsunami. Were you buying in the dip, and if so, what were you buying?

Jason Hamlin: I wasn't buying or selling mining shares on the news out of Japan, but did add to my physical stockpile on the dip. Not a really exciting strategy, but I already had a decent amount of exposure to equities. There was a lot of risk and uncertainty in the market after the news out of Japan, so I decided to wait and watch how things progressed. Equities have rallied pretty well, but I am not convinced that we're out of the woods yet.

TGR: Did you panic at all when gold went down to $1,380/oz.?

JH: No, especially with the amount of physical buying in recent months. It seems like every dip has been met by an overwhelming demand for physical gold and silver. I feel that we have entered a new paradigm in which there will be shorter and shallower corrections than witnessed during the past decade.

TGR: There is definitely a lot of international upheaval. What impact do you think the enforcement of a no-fly zone over Libya will have on the gold price in the near term?

JH: I'd like to point out that the no-fly zone was used as a justification for missile strikes; it was a much more aggressive policy than the simple no-fly zone that was originally proposed. It was also done without congressional approval, which I view as a continued violation of the Constitution, which states that only Congress can declare war. I question the political and moral authority of the West to be doing this, especially considering that the U.S. is broke and must borrow $1.6 trillion per year to cover its budget shortfall.

Economically, the ease and swiftness with which the U.S. decided to do this, and with little debate, translates into more fear and uncertainty in the markets. It will prove bullish for precious metals and oil, both in terms of the fear trade and the inflationary impact. Investors are increasingly viewing gold and silver as a better safe-haven investment than dollars or bonds, which have served this function for mainstream investors in the past. I see this trend accelerating in the coming months and years as more investors lose faith in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. government's ability to repay its exploding debt, which has topped 100% of the gross domestic product by some estimates.

TGR: We're not at 200% yet!

JH: Not quite as bad as Japan, but the 90% to 100% range is typically where most economists say interest payments become such a burden that it becomes hard to get the fiscal house in order.

TGR: On Friday, Goldman Sachs set a three-month target price for gold of $1,480/oz. Are you comfortable with that number?

JH: I quit paying attention to anything Goldman Sachs had to say a long time ago, particularly when it comes to forecasting the gold price. They have consistently under-forecasted and underestimated the precious metals market by a wide margin. I essentially view Goldman Sachs and the big investment banks as financial terrorists who should be jailed, not respected institutions deserving of the slightest iota of creditability. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department might not want to go after them, but it's pretty clear to me that they disregarded their fiduciary duty and don't have their clients' best interests in mind. Taking their forecasts or analysis to be factual or relevant seems foolhardy.

Also, three months is really too short term to predict the price of gold with any degree of accuracy. However, I believe gold has a good chance of hitting $1,800/oz. by year-end. That's been my target. Gold could then easily pass its official inflationary adjusted high of $2,300/oz. next year. The true inflation-adjusted high for gold is somewhat closer to $5,000/oz. if we're not using the suppressed government statistics. I think there's a good chance that gold will surpass that figure before the bull market is over.

TGR: You mean the consumer price index?

JH: Right. The CPI is pretty well understood to be fudged in order to show inflation as lower than it actually is. Anyone who does the grocery shopping for a household knows that inflation is running more than a couple percent annually.

TGR: Let's talk about silver. Silver has closed the silver:gold ratio, or the number of silver ounces it takes to buy an ounce of gold, to 40:1. Historically, it's been much closer than that, but this is as close as we have seen in recent memory. That raises the question: is silver closing the gap a little too quickly—and overheating?

JH: I believe silver is likely to continue outperforming gold for the remainder of this bull market. I think the ratio will most likely revert back to 15:1 at some point in the next few years. Supply and demand fundamentals dictate such a revision.

For example, 95% of the gold ever mined is still in existence, whereas about 95% of the silver ever mined has been destroyed or used in such small quantities that it can't be economically recovered. The industrial uses of silver continue to increase, including high-tech electronics, solar and wind energy systems, batteries, medical and military applications, and even water purification. Silver truly is irreplaceable in many of today's critical applications.

In the past several months, there have been signs of shortages. Overall, the physical demand is overwhelming the supply. Even absent a short squeeze, the fundamentals dictate a much higher price for silver both in absolute terms and in relation to the gold price.

There is also another perspective on that ratio. If it's based on production of silver versus gold, the ratio would be closer to 10:1. Comparing overall demand to overall mine production, there is a shortfall of 100 to 200 Moz. of silver every year. There's actually less silver bullion aboveground available for investment than there is gold bullion. As the hedge fund manager Eric Sprott said, "There is 75 times more dollars worth of gold to buy than silver."

Despite these statistics, there is an increasing percentage of investor dollars flowing into silver, which is still 30% below its all-time nominal high, even though gold is about 70% above its 1980 price. The numbers just don't add up.

I don't think silver is closing the gap too quickly, but rather that the gold:silver ratio is likely to fall even lower over the next few years.

TGR: Okay. How far off is $40/oz. silver?

JH: Silver is approaching $40 rather quickly, but I prefer to steer clear of short-term predictions. That's just a guessing game. However, I do think silver will likely pass $50 by year end.

TGR: That would be truly remarkable. Given the current market conditions, what sort of junior mining plays are you seeking these days?

JH: My focus is on junior miners that appear undervalued relative to their peers and under-appreciated by the market. I do a good deal of fundamental research and cross-analysis. I look for miners that are well financed, with high-grade drill results, open strike zones, and management that has a track record of moving projects from exploration into production. I like companies that have a clear plan, either for moving into production, entering into a joint venture or being acquired by a surrounding major within a few years.

TGR: There's a lot going on politically and financially around the globe right now. There is unrest in the Middle East, and Japan is grappling with the aftermath of natural disasters, as well as staggering national debt. What advice do you give investors in light of those macro conditions?

JH: I believe that investors should have a good hedge against inflation, and that their portfolios should be diversified across various commodities. Investors should also have some of their assets out of dollars and out of the banking system entirely. I am growing increasingly concerned that another currency or financial crisis is coming down the line. It's critical to balance where assets are placed and to have physical gold and silver in your possession. The financial landscape is deteriorating in the U.S., as well as many other countries.

TGR: Jason, thanks for the insights.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1301378700.php

Serpo

29th March 2011, 12:08 AM

Serpo

29th March 2011, 12:19 AM

Waitin for a pullback ;)
:ROFL:

Edit to add...so much that i decided to start a tread..... ;D

Great we need a bit more life around here.... |--0--|

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301340431.php

Serpo

30th March 2011, 12:28 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=DhsNsTlJfH4

WB: JPM is in worse shape then we ever dared to hope.

This is what I am now hearing from traders on the floor. These traders are not even sure if Blythe knows the full extent of JPM’s silver exposure.

When I first started to realize that JPM has shorted far more silver than they could ever hope to cover, my first question was “why would they do that?” Not only that, why do it with a commodity where you must report your positions through the COT and Bank Participation Report? After all,the whole world can see what you are doing. [my added comment: Ted Butler included!]

Now I know the answer. According to Max Keiser and now a couple of other independent sources, it seems the reasons why first Bear Stearns and now JPM are so desperate to manipulate the price of silver down is due to the fact that BS and JPM shorted billions (yes billions not millions) in ounces of silver through their derivatives.

Just like Joe Conason at AIG, silver shorting through derivatives have caused literally billions in losses not the millions that we know about publicly. That is why JPM has been so desperate to manipulate the price of silver downward so blatantly. If I am right about this, then JPM will be dead when silver hits $60 or so. Based upon the COT and BPR, if silver hits $60, JPM will lose around an additional $6 billion dollars, a large number but not nearly large enough to bring down mighty JPM.

But what is not known is that due to the way that its derivatives are written, JPM’s losses are exponentional once silver breaks $36 or so. Rumors has it that JPM could be losing as much as $40 billion once silver is above $50. It has something to do with how the derivatives are written with payment tied to the price of silver.

Since JPM was a price manipulator with respectt to the price of silver, JPM assumed that any derivative payments tied to silver would be less than they would be tied to some other index like the CPI or TIPS implied inflation index. JPM’s inability to hold down the price of silver relative to other measures of inflation will cause unbelievable losses due to a mismatch in their derivative structures.

In essence,JPM has bet (a huge amount)through derivatives that silver will never outperform inflation. And why not,since JPM assumed that it will always be able to manipulate the price of silver. We have now come to understand that JPM’s loss exposure to silver is much greater than we have ever dared to hope.

WB: In an effort to clear up some recent confusion regarding my latest posting, I will try to explain what I have recently uncovered.

JPM’s current short silver position is estimated to be approximately 150 million ounces down from the recent 180 million ounces in August. The losses from these positions are easy to figure out. For every $10 rise in the price of silver, JPM will lose $1.5 billion. But what I have recently discovered is that through its derivative positions, JPM will lose about 5 times that amount ounce the price of silver is above $36. And ounce silver is above $45 dollars, JPM’s losses will increase to 8 times the amount of losses in their short positions. The reason is that as the price of silver increases, certain provisions get activated which multiplies the losses.

One reader asks the question why isnt the price of JPM going down to reflect the losses in silver. My answer is that the price of silver is not high enough to begin to trigger losses in their derivative positions. But once silver approaches this critical level say around $36, then you should begin to see the price of JPM stock begin to reflect these losses.

In fact, traders are saying that once the price of silver surpasses the stock price of JPM, then for every dollar the price of silver go up, JPM should lose around 70 cents or so. This means that if silver hits $60, JPM will be a single digit stock.

JPM market cap is around $170 billion. If silver losses are as great as $40 billion in cash , then JPM will be insolvent. Period.

Peter H.

maxkeiser.com/2011/03/09/jp-morgans-losses-are-exponentional-once-silver-breaks-36/

Serpo

1st April 2011, 04:40 PM

Neuro

2nd April 2011, 07:10 AM

Serpo

3rd April 2011, 03:17 PM

One of Lindsay Williams better clips.......at the end he is saying(with proof) that the elite are now buying...............you guessed it .....SILVER

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HMMu0ID1yYI
Takes too long to download. But what took them so long? Was $10 2 1/2 years ago too cheap, or was $4-5/oz 10-12 years ago too cheap? Can't waste expensive vault space with something as ridiculously cheap as silver?
In Jan the mint sold of 6mil oz silver.
What is the evidence the elite started buying silver?

Thats a pity because this is a interesting piece from LW as he isnt waffling so much.

So he mentions insiders selling their own stock thru sept,oct to jan of this year,massive amounts apparently.Then in dec/jan the US mint sold record breaking amounts of silver.
He is saying the elite insiders are the ones buying

Neuro

3rd April 2011, 04:08 PM

Ok so the mint was selling some $200 million worth of silver in January, from the mint. Certainly that is a lot of silver, but I personally know a few of the elites here in Istanbul who could buy that amount on their own. I am pretty sure if there really was an elite insider plot to buy physical silver, we would see NONE available at APMEX and the other retailers. But they appear to be pretty well stocked last I checked anyway. No doubt the time will come, but it isn't now. Thanks for giving the essence of that slow loading video though!

optionT

3rd April 2011, 08:06 PM

Jim Rogers : Don't sell your silver CNBC 31 March 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jraKFphvZcE

Serpo

4th April 2011, 05:42 AM

Serpo

4th April 2011, 04:57 PM

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301924290.php

And so far during this precious metals bull market, silver has not made a major top independent of gold. So the state of the gold market and how it is not showing signs of a major top could be a flaw in the theory that silver is about to make a major top.

mAJOR DOC ON SILVER

https://doc-00-00-docsviewer.googleusercontent.com/viewer/securedownload/2pcr2himrco34u7kqfml7ch45idjl4cl/vqoqmmaje4hl6hsanjagcqrkrft6m83s/1301997600000/ZXhwbG9yZXI=/AGZ5hq_J8Y7pheeU_DgEp41UfnAg/MEJ3aTBHRVJIZ052Vk5UbGtZV00wTXpJdFpETTBOaTAwTTJaak xXSmxZamd0T0RVNU5HUmxNV0UwTVRJNA==?a=dl&filename=Silver.pdf&authkey=CJ3d5boN&sec=AHSqidaYCvJqkgwsZkRcbxVWvqL6nzBIUbi_cm1SqvrQgd _KCzFhY54vvk8SHKqG0LCNz3mvI7Q380kzbJyVbApgOLA5GOI6 5mqQDKes_lVe7_PrGk69CthfqKRyh8kSo99W9582EAHuSqlXUS 5JyClhOIz8QIY0CDnqItXXFc0mbWYJsM4tUR1DH6L8qos1iRaF idHQs6jxEngOhhz6Ce4j2WTj1HvE6lmI5oU6icHGUKHMk7mJmh 6JuB2E1TEigoNifvykwJkzQF4PxtShOuOjOxx-c4HRq9K2FPob5ElR0kT49VBvnvzo_t3hZ-efQ4l7O8zqdLLWCAYRehv9rf8ukFfL_XjDbhI1qU7DJdLuyx88 st2UqBEErttWifrd2Qpr5Pxh9TPX&nonce=iadlu0m307rne&user=AGZ5hq_J8Y7pheeU_DgEp41UfnAg&hash=or5l9kosm383pohmnqbgj3q10vjn2fke

Serpo

6th April 2011, 02:48 PM

More money being spent on silver than gold at the moment

Every day one third of yearly out put of silver is traded everyday on comex

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/5_Eric_Sprott.html

also.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdlXot0ZEgo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfmMaFgdMPg&feature=relmfu

Serpo

9th April 2011, 02:51 PM

.
Silver punched through $40 overnight in Asian trade and held its gains going into London and into New York. That is quite remarkable given the fact that runs toward round numbers can engender profit taking as price targets are reached. If it holds its gains above $40, it could begin accelerating towards $50 relatively quickly. I will want to see how it fares as it nears the close of pit session trading.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

chart......

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Serpo

19th April 2011, 03:38 PM

Silver ready to pass $50-an-ounce this week to set new all-time high

By: Peter Cooper

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1303133251.php
-- Posted 18 April, 2011 | Share this article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 2 Source: SilverSeek.com

Silver looks set for a sprint past its all-time high of $50 established 31 years ago this week. But with Goldman Sachs now advising its clients to get out of commodities and Glencore, the world’s largest commodities trader launching its $11 billion IPO most probably on Thursday, the end of this surge could come quickly.

Latecomers to the silver party would then face the prospect of selling at a lower level or waiting for the next upswing in this extremely volatile commodity. Market gyrations to date have favored a buy-and-hold approach over market timing, which particularly for silver is very difficult, if not impossible to get right.

Traders say there is presently greatly increased buying pressure but that is being met by a large amount of selling. If this was really the top of a bull market there would not be these sellers left in the market.

Global correction

What are the prospects for the precious metals in the next global financial markets’ sell-off? It is impossible to say for sure. But we do know that there is plenty of cash sat on the sidelines waiting for a correction to buy these metals.

Any dip is therefore likely to be seized upon as a buying opportunity. That should make the dips shallower than in the 2008 sell-off. It is even possible that cash flows so quickly back into precious metals that they advance to new highs while pretty much everything else in the investment universe is down on the floor.

This after all is the protection afforded by precious metals and why people buy a money that cannot be printed or inflated away by central bankers and politicians.

And the biggest dilemma for investors in any financial market correction today is that when they sell they will end up largely with a very unwanted currency, the US dollar. Will they not thus decide to bail out of it as quickly as possible?

Real money

And into what? Well, what about the only sound money left on the planet? Gold and silver. Now the stock of silver is so small relative to gold that the impact on prices will be greatest for the shiniest of all metals.

So this week should be a landmark for silver investors but those cashing out immediately might find that their short term profits very soon look rather small compared with the upside still to come.

ArabianMoney has forecast a target of $320-an-ounce for silver (click here). $50 silver is just another step on this road. Silver is still very cheap. The total market capitalization of commodity trading giant Glencore will be around twice as much as all the silver stored in the entire world!

$50 silver - The Price Point of Liberty

By: Jack Mullen

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1303153473.php
-- Posted 18 April, 2011 | Share this article | Source: SilverSeek.com

$50 dollar silver is the first sign of blue sky after a devastating storm. It's the morning after sunshine bringing people out of hiding and together again for the process of rebuilding with the promise of a new start.

For more than 100 years the United States has been at the center of a war being waged around the clock by a cult-of-evil clawing and biting like a rabid dog at the heart of civilization. It has been an epic struggle of an outnumbered, outgunned regiment of courageous defenders of human individuality, dignity, and liberty against a tyranny intent on the enslavement of all humanity. It has been a bloody war, a costly war and even now the battles continue, but the tide is turning, finally, toward the side of good.

This war has been in stealth with the cult-of-evil creating a fictional world being pulled over and smothering the head of humanity. For years this war has involved the creation of a pretended reality that presents lies for all standards of measure of a free society. Recently, like all bubbles, the bubble of pretension has begun to grow exponentially - hiding reality behind a manufactured reality, including a manufactured history of the world - a process that is not sustainable and will soon face the limits of nature ( the real reality) . This fictional reality has reached the proportions of a bubble , not unlike the tulip bubble of 1637 - I would now call this bubble a bubble-of-pretension. The problem with bubbles is they burst and hiding reality is nature's most costly mistake.

Reality is something the criminal class trying to hi-jack the world must, at all costs, hide from the sleeping, drugged, conned and dumbed down public. For the most part hiding reality, especially in the early stages of a bubble-of-pretension has so far been successful but the price is becoming higher. In American alone pacifying the public is a 24-7-365 operation requiring enormous sums of economic energy and decades of dedication to bring about the quickening now underway.

But, I think we have reached a bifurcation point , when the matrix of pretension , consuming enormous and ever growing quantities of energy to maintain escalating lies-of-normalcy, starts to falter. Cracks appear and the engine of deception coughs and gasps for more, more, more -- but energy too is a thing of nature and sooner or later the prevaricators use up all the available energy and the false matrix of reality begins to collapse. It's the moment when Caligula realizes men with swords cannot defeat the sea, or when a parliament of thieves cannot another ounce of gold steal. That point is here today, and I think the signs are clear: gold is approaching $1500 and more importantly Silver is about to smash through the most protected price in the history - $50.

I think it bears repeating, $50 silver is the most protected price in recorded history, it is a price that's cost trillions and trillions and millions of lives and untold millions in misery to defend. $50 silver has been defended with all the energy and manpower the cult of evil can muster. The war is not over and the price is still out of reach, but momentum is on the side of humanity. After $50 there's no more resistance - Silver will break free and rise quickly to crush the banking system, the energy and life blood of the enemy. Beyond $50 silver, the dollar and the banking system will collapse quickly. George Soros and the BRIC nations are already aware - the dollar hegemony is cracking and $50 silver is the wedge in the heart of the beast.

For those of us that understand how much wasted and destroyed wealth has been employed to keep the price of silver from rising with inflation while the purchasing power of the fiat currency in which it is priced is destroyed, $50 silver is monumental. This is the day the bubble in pretension bursts - $50 silver, the top is in, not for silver, but for the century of lies and deception and destruction of wealth that will be the legacy of the private banking cartel and their Federal Reserve.

$50 dollar silver is easily $160 dollars short of its inflation adjusted value since the mid nineteen seventies when silver last rose up against the tyrants. The difference between $210 (an estimate of silver's inflation adjusted price) and $50 seems very little, but that $160 has cost the loss of the worlds reserve currency, the fleecing of two+ generations of Americans and peoples worldwide. Hiding the worthlessness of fiat money though metals price suppression has in a way been responsible for WWI, WWII, the massive loss of lives in Russian and China and Germany to psychopathic dictators. That $160 was responsible for the Vietnam war, the death of Kennedy, the Iraq I and Iraq II wars, the war-on-drugs and the Afghan and now Libyan wars. We could go on and say that $160 has cost the lives of all those Americans in the World Trade Centers during 9-11 and the incredible loss of lives to our criminal monopoly controlled health and food industries. We might even get verbose and mention the deaths caused by fluoride poison in the drinking water and the weight gain and cancers caused by our 'diet' supplements such as Aspartame.

While silver sits below $50 the world has suffered trillions and trillions of wealth stolen for false flag wars and then more wealth destroyed in those wars. Trillions of dollars that could have been used pry off the yoke of the psychopaths creating monopolies in every industry facilitating human life. Monopolies selling lies: the pharmaceutical industry selling lies of health, the medical services industry selling lies of treatment, the food industry selling lies of nutrition, the military-industrial industries selling lies of safety and protection, the prison-police industries selling lies of safety and peacefulness and more. Monopolies of law and justice selling lies of righteousness, monopolies of transportation and banking and energy and education; lies sold by monopolist in the pursuit of total domination and the suppression of reality.

But the price of lies and the price of monopoly is the inevitable depletion of all the available resources, be it manpower, money, or the human spirit supporting a willingness to be deceived - eventually they are all depleted. As the peak of pretension is reached and the bubble-of-pretension begins to burst we must make plans take charge of the collapse and work to be sure the evil puffed up in the bubble is evacuated to oblivion as the bubble explodes.

We don't need most of the humans that have been deceived to wake up and join the cause. We only need those of us that are awake to be ready to step in and organize the collapse.

It is in the United States where most of the wealth stolen for pacification has been deployed, because the United States is the only nation on earth with a large armed populace. Not only large and armed, but with a history of documentation and research showing why guns in the hands of people (not guns in the hands of military or militia or police or PERSONS or CITIZENS) is the ONLY way for people: men and women and children, to protect themselves against the onslaught of a cunning and relentless tyranny. It is in America that a small group of awakened humans can take back their freedom and again provide a secure home for liberty - liberty that can again protect the world from the tyranny afoot today.

Oppose gun control at all costs - no freedom or liberty can be protected without the threat of weapons as a last resort. Withdraw your support for the banking system by removing your money and buying physical silver and gold for use later as currency. Use cash for all transactions reducing the flow of money through the banks weakening further the already weak banks. Infiltrate your local governments by running for office, use the power of the local press to remove corruption by writing letters to the editor. Take back our schools -- home school your children, it should only take a generation or two of home schooled children to move back into the mainstream world as leaders and members of government. Do not depend on the United States federal government for any help. The States are the answer. If your state does not support the right to own guns move. Vote with your feet, do not any longer support evil with your tax dollars. Look for states with nullification laws in the works, these states need our support. Take action against intrusion on your liberties, bring lawsuits against fraudulent banking, TSA assault, criminal foreclosures and file claims against sources of health degradation - we need a call to action for class action lawsuits.

More ways to stop the evil: buy radio stations (lots of them cheap and then use them to get the message out), take back our newspapers and television stations from the elite mega corporations. Write blogs, tell your children every day, talk to them about what is happening and what has to happen before it will change. Look for lies, critique movies for hidden messages of the enslavers, filter your water, buy radiation detection equipment and complain when the media lies about radiation, and get off the power grid with solar and wind generators. The power grid is a great controller, If you misbehave or if you need to be taught a lesson, the power will go down.

Lastly take charge of your health and your families health. The medical-pharmaceutical-insurance industry in the United States are not about health, they are not outcome based. The 'pharmamedisurance' model of business is theft through monopoly and wealth through growth of services. Cures are way to health, health through prevention is the solution. Eat organic whole foods with non-GMO contents. Eat less. Supplement the loss of nutrition in foods with high quality natural supplements. Take charge of your own health, read about nutrition and healthy life ideas, and then shrug off your M.D. , stop taking pharmaceutical poisons, decline unnecessary tests. Stand up to the system that is fleecing your health.

With $50 silver signaling the beginning of the end of the banking system, it becomes imperative that we, the awake, prepare for the final confrontation. It is here that we sink or swim -- practice swimming and buy more real, hold in your hands, silver.

Serpo

19th April 2011, 03:46 PM

50 Factors Launching Gold

By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com

-- Posted Tuesday, 19 April 2011 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

Edification is not the word that comes to mind when observing an interview with Larry Fink of Blackstone this morning on network financial news. It was inspirational if not humorous, and somewhat pathetic. Of course the interviewer treated him like royalty, when just a syndicate captain, a Made Man. As a cog within the US financial hierarchy, he was asked why Gold is approaching record price levels near $1500 per ounce. He gave his best 10-second answer, showing no depth of comprehension but an excellent grip of propaganda laced with simplistic distortion. He said, "GOLD IS RISING FROM ALL THE GLOBAL INSTABILITY, AND NOT FROM INFLATION AT ALL." Sounds good, but it lacks much reflection of the world of reality burdened by complexity and interconnectivity that the enlightened perceive. At least he did not babble about Gold being in an asset bubble. It cannot, since Gold is money. It is curious that all the analysts, bankers, fund managers, corporate chieftains who did not advise on Gold investment over the last ten years are precisely whom the financial network news appeals to for guidance in the current monster Gold bull run. They knew nothing before, and they know nothing now. The major US news networks carry the Obama water while the USCongressional members carry the USBanker robes and show respect with genuflection before the priests. But guys like Fink are their harlot squires. Poor Ben Bernanke, despite his high priest position, does not gather a fraction of respect that Alan Greenspan did even though Alan presided over the collapse. The wild card possibly later this year or 2012 will be a national movement to force mandatory wage gains, and thus avert a national economic collapse. The squeeze is on in a powerful manner to both businesses and households.

ANOTHER STRONG GOLD BREAKOUT

As long as Quantitative Easing programs are in place and actively pursued, Gold & Silver prices will soar. The programs are urged by exploding budget deficits and absent USTBond demand. That translates to a ruined USDollar currency. Gold & Silver respond to the debasement and ruin. Efforts will become ridiculously stretched to save the USDollar, but will fail. QE will go global and secretive, assuring tremendous additional gains in the Gold & Silver price. No effort to liquidate the big USbanks will occur, thus assuring the process will continue until systemic breakdown then failure. The more extraordinary the measures to save the embattled insolvent fraudulent USDollar, the more the Gold & Silver price will soar. It is that simple. Gold & Silver will soar as long as central banks continue to put monetary inflation machinery to work. They are attempting to provide artificial but coordinated USTreasury Bond demand. In the process their efforts will continue to push the cost structure up further. In my view, since the Japan natural disaster hit with financial fallout, the Global QE is very much in effect, but not recognized as a global phenomenon. It pushes up Gold in uniform fashion worldwide.

50 FACTORS POWERING THE GOLD BULL

1) USFed is stuck at 0% for over two years and printing $1.7 trillion in Quantitative Easing, otherwise called monetary hyper inflation. They are not finished destroying both money and capital.

2) USFed tripled its balance sheet, with over half of it bonds of exaggerated value, while it gobbled up toxic mortgage bonds as buyer of last resort. The mortgage bonds have turned worthless. The USFed waits for a housing revival to bail itself out, but it will not arrive.

3) Debt monetization has gone haywire, as over 70% of USTBond sales from the USFed printing press. The QE was urgently needed, since legitimate buyers vanished. Even the primary dealers have been reimbursed in open market operations within a few weeks.

4) PIMCO has shed its entire USTreasury Bond holdings, seeing no value. They joined many foreign creditors in an unannounced buyer boycott in disgusted reaction to QE which is essentially a compulsory unilateral debt writedown.

5) Growing USGovt deficits have run over $1.5 trillion annually, with absent cuts, obscene entitlements, endless war. The prevailing short-term 0% interest rates are out of synch with exploding debt supply and rising price inflation.

6) Unfunded USGovt liabilities total nearly $100 trillion for medicare, social security, pensions, and more. The obligations are never included in the official debt. It represents insult to injury within insolvency.

7) Standard & Poors warned that USGovt could lose AAA rating in lousy credit outlook, one chance in three within the next two years. Ironically, the announcement came on the day when the USGovt exceeded its debt limit. The network news missed it.

8) State & Municipal debt have collapsed, as 41 states have huge shortfalls, and four large states are broken. They might receive a federal bailout. It could be called QE3, maybe QE4.

9) Coordinated USTBond purchases from Japanese sales have relieved the USFed, as other major central banks act as global monetarist agents. The sales by Japan are vast and growing. Witness the last phase in unwind of Yen Carry Trade, where 0% borrowed Japanese money funded the USTreasury Bonds and US Stocks.

10) Quantitative Easing, a catch word for extreme monetary inflation and debt monetization, has become engrained into global central bank policy, soon hidden. It is so controversial and deadly to the global financial structures that it will go hidden, and attempt to avoid the furious anger in feedback by global leaders. This is the most important and powerful of all 50 factors in my view.

11) The FedFunds Rate is stuck near 0%, yet the actual CPI is near 10%, for a real rate of interest of minus 9%. Historically a negative real rate of interest has been the primary fuel for a Gold bull. This time the fuel has been applied for a longer period of time, and a bigger negative real rate than ever.

12) The USGovt claims to have 8000 tons of Gold in reserve, but it is all in Deep Storage, as in unmined ore bodies. The collateral for the USDollar and USTreasury debt is vacant. It is in raw form like in the Rocky Mountain range or Sierra Nevada range.

13) Fast rising food prices, fast rising gasoline prices, and fast rising metals, coffee, sugar, and cotton serve as testament to broad price inflation. So far it has shown up on the cost structure. Either the business sector will vanish from a cost squeeze or pass on higher costs as end product and service price increases.

14) The entire world seeks to protect wealth from the ravages of inflation & the American sponsored QE by buying Gold & Silver. The rest of the world can spot price inflation more effectively than the US population. The United States is subjected to the world's broadest and most pervasive propaganda in the industrialized world.

15) The European sovereign debt breakdown with high bond yields in PIIGS nations points out the broken debt foundation to the monetary system. The solutions like with Greece in May 2010 were a sham, nothing but a bandaid and cup of elixir. Spain is next to experience major shocks that destabilize all of Europe again, this time much bigger than Greece. The Portuguese Govt debt rises toward 10% on the 10-year yield, while the Greek Govt debt has risen to reach 20% on the 2-year yield.

16) Germany is pushing for Southern Europe bank climax in their Euro Central Bank rate hike. Europe will be pushed to crisis this year, orchestrated by the impatient and angry Germans. They have no more appetitive for $300 to $400 billion in annual welfare to the broken nations in Southern Europe.

17) Isolation of the USFed and Bank of England and Bank of Japan has come. The small rate hike by the European Central Bank separated them finally. The Anglos with their Japanese lackeys are the only central banks not raising rates. With isolation comes all the earmarks on the path to the Third World.

18) The shortage of gold is acute, as 51 million gold bars have been sold forward versus the 11 million held by the COMEX in inventory. Be sure that hundreds of millions of nonexistent fractionalized gold ounces are polluting the system. Word is getting out that the COMEX is empty of precious metals.

19) Such extreme Silver shortage has befallen the COMEX that the corrupted metals exchange routinely offers cash settlement in silver with a 25% bonus if a non-disclosure agreement is signed. The practice cannot be kept under wraps, as some hedge funds push for fat returns in under two months holding positions with delivery demanded.

20) China has begun grand initiatives to replace its precious metal stockpiles. They are pursuing the Yuan currency to become a global reserve currency. As they build collateral for the Yuan, they are also elevating Silver as reserves asset.

21) A global shortage of Gold & Silver has been realized in national mint production. From the United States to Canada to Australia to Germany, shortages exist. Many interruptions will continue amidst the shortages, which feed the publicity.

22) The Teddy Roosevelt stockpile of 6 million Silver ounces was depleted in 2003. He saw the strategic importance of Silver for industrial and military applications. The USEconomy and USMilitary will turn into importers on the global market.

23) The betrayal of China by USGovt in Gold & Silver leases is a story coming out slowly. The deal was cut in 1999, associated with Most Favored Nation granted to China. But the Wall Street firms broke the deal, betrayed the Chinese, and angered them into highly motivated action. No longer are the Chinese big steady USTBond buyers, part of the deal also.

24) Every single US financial market has been undermined and corrupted from grotesque intervention, constant props, and fraudulent activity. The degradation has occurred under the watchful eyes of compromised regulators. Fraud like the Flash Crash and NYSE front running by Goldman Sachs is protected by the FBI henchmen.

25) The USEconomy operates on a global credit card, enabling it to live beyond its means. The USGovt exploits the compulsory foreign extension of credit in USTBonds, by virtue of the USDollar acting as global reserve currency. Foreign nations are compelled to participate but that is changing.

26) The USMilitary conducts endless war adventures for syndicate profits. They use the USTreasury Bond as a credit card. The wars cost of $1 billion per day is considered so sacred, that it is off the table in USGovt budget call negotiations, debates, and agreements.

27) Narcotics funds have proliferated under the USMilitary aegis. The vertically integrated narcotics industry is the primary plank of nation building in Afghanistan. The funds keep the big US banks alive from vast money laundering.

28) No big US bank liquidations have occurred, despite their deep insolvency. Any restructure toward recovery would have the liquidations are the first step. The USEconomy is stuck in a deteriorating swamp since the Too Big To Fail mantra prevents the urgent but missing step.

29) The unprosecuted multi-$trillion bond fraud over the last decade has harmed the US image, prestige, and leadership. The main perpetrators are the Wall Street bankers and their lieutenants appointed at Fannie Mae and elsewhere. They bankers most culpable remain in charge at the USDept Treasury and other key supporting posts like the FDIC, SEC, and CFTC.

30) The ugly daughters Fannie Mae and AIG are forever entombed in the USGovt. They operate as black hole expenses whose fraud must be contained. The costs involved are in the $trillions, all hidden from view like the fraud. Fannie Mae remains the main clearinghouse for several $trillion fraud programs still in operation.

31) The US banking system cannot serve as an effective credit engine dispenser, an important function within any modern economy. It is deeply insolvent, and growing more insolvent as the property market sinks lower in valuation. The banks lack reserves, and hide their condition by means of the FASB permission to use fraudulent accounting.

32) The big US banks are beneficiary of continuous secret slush fund support from the USGovt and USFed. Their sources and replenishments have been gradually revealed. The TARP Fund event will go down in modern history as the greatest theft the world has ever seen, easily eclipsing the biggest mortgage bond fraud in history.

33) The insolvent big US banks continue to sit at the USGovt teat. The vast umbilical cord of banker welfare has not gone away. Goldman Sachs still is in control of the funding machinery.

34) The shadow banking system based upon credit derivatives keeps interest rates near 0%. The usury cost of money is artificially low near nothing. As money costs nothing, capital is actively and rapidly destroyed.

35) A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the USGovt. A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the USMilitary. A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the USCongress. A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the US press networks.

36) A chronic decline of the US housing sector keeps the USEconomy in a grand decline with constant deterioration. With one million bank owned homes in inventory, a huge unsold overhang of supply prevents any recovery of housing prices. Home equity continues to drain, and bank balance sheets continue to erode.

37) Over 11 million US homes stand in negative equity. The sum equals to 23.1% of households. They will not participate much in the USEconomy, except when given handouts. They have become downtrodden.

38) The USEconomy will not benefit from a export surge. The US industrial base has no critical mass after 30 years of dispatch to the Pacific Rim & China. The industry must contend with rising costs in offset to the falling USDollar, which is cited as providing the mythical benefit. Then can export in droves if they do so at a loss.

39) A global revolt against the USDollar is in its third years. The global players work to avoid the US$ usage in trade settlement. Several bilateral swap facilities flourish, mostly with China. If China supplies products, then the Yuan currency will be elevated to global reserve currency.

40) Global anger and resentment over three decades has spilled over. The World Bank and IMF have been routinely used by the US bankers to safeguard the USDollar and Anglo banker hegemony. Neither financial agency commands the respect of yesteryear.

41) A middle phase has begun in a powerful Global Paradigm Shift. The transfer moves power East where the wealth engines of industry lie, far from the fraudulent banking centers. The next decade will feature the Chinese as bankers, since their war chest contains over $3 trillion.

42) The crumbling global monetary system was built on toxic sovereign debt. Legal tender has been nothing more than denominated debt posing as legitimate by legal decree. That is what word FIAT means. The system is gradually breaking in an irreversible manner.

43) The global central bank franchise system has been discredited. It is a failure, which is not recognized by the bank leaders still in charge. The stepwise process of ruin continues with a new sector falling every few months. Next might be municipal bonds.

44) Witness the final phase of a systemic cycle, as the monetary system has run its course. It is saturated with debt from faulty design. The deception cited in the mainstream media focuses upon the credit cycle which will renew. It will not. It will break of its own weight and lost confidence.

45) The recognition has grown substantially that suppression of the Gold price has been the anchor holding fiat system together. The Chinese realize that Gold, when removed, leads to the collapse of the US financial system. They realize it more than the US public. But the syndicate in control of the USGovt understands the concept very well, as they designed the system.

46) The institution of a high level global barter system might soon take root. Gold will sit at its central core, providing stability. No deadbeat nations will participate. That includes the United States and several European nations. The barter system will be as effective as elegant.

47) The movements spread like wildfire in several US states to reinstitute gold as money. In a few states, led by Utah and Virginia, progress has been made for Gold to satisfy debts, public & private. Consider the movement to be in parallel to the Tenth Amendment movements.

48) Anglo bankers have lost control in global banking politics. The phased out G-7 Meeting is evidence. China has wrested control of G-20 Meeting, and has dictated much of its agenda in the last few meetings. The US has been reduced to a diminutive Bernanke and Geithner being ignored in the corner.

49) New loud stirrings by Saudi Arabia seek a new security protector. If security is no longer provided by the USMilitary, then the entire defacto Petro-Dollar standard is put at risk. Remove the crude oil sales in USDollars exclusively, and the US sinks into the Third World with a USDollar currency that cannot stand on its own wretched wrecked fundamentals.

50) The IMF solution to use SDR basket as global reserve is a final desperate ploy. By fashioning a basket of major currencies in a basket, they attempt to enforce a price fixing regime. It is a hidden FOREX currency exchange rate price fixing gambit that will invite a Gold price advance in uniform manner across the currencies bound together. This ploy is being planned in order to prevent the USDollar from dying a horrible death at the expense of the other major currencies. By that is meant at the expense of the other major economies which would otherwise have to operate at very high exchange rates.

THE BIGGEST UPCOMING NEW FACTORS

Introduction of a New Nordic Euro currency is near its introduction. The implementation with a Gold component will send Southern European banks into the abyss, marred by default. The new currency has the support from Russia and China, even the Persian Gulf. In my view, it is a USDollar killer. The first nations to institute a new monetary system for banks and commerce will be the survivors. The rest will slide into the darkness of the Third World.

Gold & Silver seem to be the only assets rising in price, an extension of a terrific 2010 decade. The exceptions are farmland and the US Stock market. However, stock valuations are propped by constant and admitted USGovt support. Their efforts are mere attempts to keep pace with the USDollar decline, as stocks merely maintain a constant purchase power.

A hidden overarching hand seeks the global Gold Standard as the bonafide solution. Darwin is at work, but Adam Smith turns a new chapter. The crumbling monetary solution demands a solution. Further investment in the current system assures a devastating decline into the abyss of insolvency and ruin.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1303243200.php

Serpo

19th April 2011, 04:37 PM

$5,000 Gold and $300 Silver are Credible Numbers

-- Posted Tuesday, 19 April 2011 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

By James West

Q: What do CNBC, George Soros, Warren Buffet and every other mainstream investment commentator on the price of gold have in common for the last ten years?

A: They are all wrong.

All the time, every year, ten out of ten years in a row. If you continue to pay attention to such disinformation, you will lose money. Definitely. No question. Guaranteed.

Each and every year, their vapid comments on the future gold price prove to be complete bollocks, yet year after year, and day after day, millions of readers watchers and listeners tune in for another dose of horribly incorrect information.

These days, the number of perpetually inaccurate predictions forecasting an end to the gold boom are thoroughly drowned out by the now multitudinous voices screaming from the rooftops for gold to go much higher. About 90 percent of that is the herd mentality at work. Early predictions for $1,000 gold, which seemed extreme and outlandish just two years ago, turned out to be very conservative. So its easy now to lay claim to being “the one who predicted the gold bull market”.

Bandwagon riders aside, there are compelling reasons to support a much higher gold price, and more importantly, a narrowing of the ratio between the gold price and the silver price. One year ago, the silver to gold ratio was 63 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. Today that ratio is 35:1. Its fallen by nearly half in one year.

In terms of pure performance, whereas gold has delivered a solid gain of 26.51% in the course of the last year, silver has outshone gold spectacularly, turning in a gain of 123.55%, making it the commodity trade of the year by far. The effect of that performance is to dramatically alter the perception of investors in terms of its desirability as a precious metal. Its long been a psychological barrier to silver’s progress, in my opinion, that a precious metal could be had so cheap.

But as the prices of both monetary metals grows, and their price differentials narrow, investors want an idea of where the future is heading in terms of these prices. Can they continue to grow so dramatically in price, or is there a point at which their price appreciation curve will level out and become more incremental? Or, is there a point at this the upward price curves will plunge steeply downward? And at what point, if every, will the price curves of silver and gold converge? What exactly is the appropriate ratio of gold versus silver? Do we buy bullion, coins, ETF’s, Gold Funds, Senior Miners or Junior Explorers? Which is safest? Which is riskiest?

First lets consider the ratio question. If the ratio suggested in the title were to become reality, that would mean a ratio of only ten ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. If the ratio curve were to continue climbing in favour silver at the present rate, it would approach 10:1 within another year.

But if the ratio were to reflect numbers pegged to certain fundamental realities, then perhaps we could deduce a more rational price differential with better certainty. According to John Stephenson’s Little Book of Commodity Investing, there is 16 times more silver in the earth’s crust than gold.

So on that basis alone, the correct price ratio is arguably 16:1. Silver bulls like to point out that silver is unique among monetary metals because of its wide ranging industrial applications, as well as in photography and jewelry. As the silver price continues to consolidate its price differential with gold, it is likely that process modification and substitution will occur wherever possible in the manufacturing supply chain to replace silver, which will dampen industrial demand. Thanks to silver’s unique chemical attributes, however, that effect will be muted.

2009 statistics from the Silver Institute show that global supply of silver was more or less equal to the global demand for silver from all classes including manufacturing and bullion minting. Government stocks of silver are estimated to have fallen by 13.7 million ounces over the course of 2009, to reach their lowest levels in more than a decade. Russia again accounted for the bulk of government sales, with China and India essentially absent from the market in 2009. Regarding China, Gold Fields Mineral Services states that after years of heavy sales, its silver stocks have been reduced significantly.

If the silver ratio is heading to 16:1, that implies a near term price range of $90 - $100 per ounce.

If gold goes to $5,000 an ounce, and the silver/gold price ratio remains 16:1, there’s silver at $312.50 per ounce.

And what, pray tell, is coming down the pike to support a gold price of $5,000?

First and foremost, the United States dollar.

The whole global financial system is trapped in a situation whereby we have no choice but to permit the United States to continue counterfeiting money. There is no single political force or voice or even prospect with the knowledge and the power to put a stop to the insanity into which we continue to spiral on a daily basis. That means, despite the unanimous chorus from the financial media mainstream, which anesthetizes the human race in an effort to thwart violent protest by design, the fabrication of electronic dollars will continue apace. For years.

In terms of strict nominal value, that implies a proportional increase in the prices of, well, everything. Inflation is the direct outcome of monetary expansion in the absence of economic growth. Therefore, gold and silver will be direct beneficiaries of such policy.

At the same time, sovereign and large capital pool (LCP) investors in U.S. debt are seeking to exit their holdings of U.S. dollars, The world’s largest bond fund, PIMCO, and its acerbic chief Bill Gross, are now shorting the U.S. dollar. China has stated repeatedly that it will reduce its holdings of U.S. debt. This is sending a signal to the rest of the sovereign wealth and LCPs that the U.S. dollar should be abandoned. That means, when the convulsions that seize the global financial system, such as that of 2008, manifest themselves, investors will flee less and less to the U.S. dollar, and more and more to other currencies – especially gold and silver.

So not only does the price of gold appreciate in strictly nominal terms, but demand for it is growing even as it grows exponentially in price. That’s why, given this illogical yet nevertheless existing stupidity, the more expensive gold and silver get, the greater will be their demand as a replacement for U.S. dollar denominated safe haven asset classes.

The third major factor that is going to drive gold to $5,000 and silver through $300 is related to the first two. Governments, always reactive and never proactive, will eventually start to ratify gold and silver as official currency alternatives as a result of public pressure.

The decision by the people of Utah to do just that was big news recently, even though technically and legally, it always was legal tender in that state. It is this final legitimizing step by regional governments that will open the eyes of the otherwise hypnotized American public. For now, the move is painted as fringe by the idiotic mainstream, who are unwitting pawns for the financial services industry – U.S. Federal Reserve – U.S. Treasury trio of economic under-miners.

But contrary to global public perception, this has been a recurring theme in the United States economy, pretty much from day 1.

The Daily Astorian, a newspaper of the day in Astoria, Oregon, on May 9th, 1876 published a story the following of which is an excerpt:

The people of this country are tolerably familiar with depreciated money. The great mass of them have had nothing else for the last fourteen years. We are accustomed to depreciated Greenbacks, National Bank Notes, Nickels and Silver, and there are those living who can recall the time when Gold was worth less than Silver.

The biggest perpetrators of what we, the people, must soon designate as criminals, else suffer the continuing consequences of no jobs and no future, are the United States Federal Reserve, the United States Treasury, The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission, and the Securities Exchange Commission.

“Oh but wait,” say some. “The United States Federal Reserve is not a government body….its private.” And? The Federal Reserve is nothing more and nothing less than the off-balance sheet entity of the U.S. Treasury that permits the illegal fabrication of dollars out of thin air without prosecution. Of course this off-balance sheet entity is not an official government body. It was designed that way, exactly as Enron set up LJM L.P., to hide losses and perform sundry distasteful and illegal acts in an effort to support its parent entity.

When an entity is formed specifically to operate outside of the publicly elected offices of government, but is given dominion over the most important property of the voting public – its money – and when that entity acts in direct opposition to the interests of the public to whom it owes a fiduciary duty, then its status as government or private really becomes irrelevant. All that matters in terms of its identity is its treasonous and fraudulent activity.

The management of Enron went to jail for their larcenous culture of hiding from shareholders the true extent of their losses, and the illegal nature of their everyday operations. With a bit of luck and perseverance, the same fate will yet befall Bernanke, Paulson, Summers, Rubin, Geithner, Gensler, Shapiro and the rest of the Ivy league thieves. In the meantime, the best defense against their intentional destruction of the United States currency is selling dollars to buy gold for capital preservation and silver for low-risk capital appreciation.

The day will come when, instead of teaching that these leaders were nobly trying to ease the pain of financial forces beyond their control, today’s politicians will instead be accurately portrayed as naïve, negligent, and just plain stupid populists whose ignorance of real economic matters was exactly the ingredient necessary to permit the psychopathic and misanthropic banking community to form the financial policies of their governments. Unfortunately, the only ones likely to be alive by the time that happens are now in diapers.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303222405.php

Serpo

19th April 2011, 06:01 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aGtUyTLvwE&feature=player_embedded

Serpo

20th April 2011, 10:15 PM

Resource guru Sprott: Silver could go higher than almost anyone believes

Thursday, 21 April 2011 9:15

From Eric Sprott and Andrew Morris

Follow The Money

You know silver’s doing well when the commentators start giving it the ‘gold’ treatment. Silver’s recent rise has been so spectacular that it’s caught many investors off guard. It’s natural to be sceptical when you don’t know the fundamentals driving strong performance, and many pundits and commentators have been quick to downplay it as a result - much like they do towards gold when it enjoys a run. Silver is also an awkward metal for them to categorize. Is it a commodity, a monetary metal, or both? And which side is driving demand? If it’s industrial demand, that’s ok, because that’s bullish. But if it’s investment demand for silver as ‘money’, well then that’s sort of bearish, isn’t it? The fact remains that most commentators have failed to grasp the monetary shifts that silver is signaling today, and in doing so they’ve failed to appreciate just how high it could actually go.

The financial media’s failure to grasp the benefits of precious metals ownership continues to perplex us, and it’s not just the commentators who are prone to perpetual disbelief. The sell side analysts are equally as irresolute. According to Bloomberg, the ‘expert’ consensus silver price forecast for 2011 is $29.50, representing a 31% discount from the current spot price. This same group of analysts also predicts prices will decline another 25% in 2012 and a further 9% in 2013 to $20 an ounce. When you consider that the silver price has appreciated by over 21% annually over the past 10 years, these forecasts suggest a very dramatic change in the long-term trend. Will this reversal come true? Probably not. These were the same analysts who predicted that spot silver prices would average $18.65 this year - so they’ve missed the mark by over 100% thus far.

We don’t mean to bash the silver analyst community, and there are several whom we highly respect, but it is important for silver investors to appreciate that these price forecasts are being plugged into financial models that dictate equity valuations. These models are used by traders, bankers, analysts, and portfolio managers to derive valuations for silver stocks and create asset allocations for portfolios. To anyone questioning current silver equity valuations, we would ask: what price assumptions are you using? Of course we as allocators of capital are thankful for this phenomenon, as it allows us to buy our favourite silver stocks on the cheap, knowing full well that the herd will be following behind in due course as those backward-looking forecasts get ratcheted higher.

How can we be so confident that the price of silver will continue on its upward trajectory? Our thesis is premised on the most rudimentary of economic principles – supply and demand.

One of the key indicators that we’ve been monitoring is the gold/silver ratio. Much has been written about the ratio of late, and we won’t go into great detail on the subject, other than to note that the last time money was synonymous with defined amounts of gold and silver, the ratio was set at 16-to-one. In fact, for most of the past millennium, one ounce of gold would have been convertible to somewhere between 10 and 16 ounces of silver - an amount roughly in line with the relative occurrence of each mineral within the earth’s crust.1 For the better part of the past century, due to the world’s abandonment of bimetallism and then the gold standard, the gold/silver ratio has fluctuated widely, twice reaching lows near the 15-to-one mark and a high of 100-to-one back in the early 1990’s. The most recent high reached in the latter part of 2009 was nearly 80-to-one. Since then the ratio has been tumbling to where it stands now at 35-to-one – which reflects the incredible outperformance of silver over that time period. In our opinion, this ratio will continue to move lower, driven by nothing more than basic supply/demand fundamentals.

The US Mint, which is the world’s largest silver and gold coin manufacturer, recently reported that it had sold 13 million ounces of silver coins and 370 thousand ounces of gold coins on a year-to-date basis.2 This means that the US Mint is now selling roughly equal amounts of silver and gold in dollars so far this year. Furthermore, bullion dealers like Sprott Money and GoldMoney have confirmed with us that they are now selling more silver than gold in dollar terms. For additional confirmation of this investment trend, just look at the flows for the two largest gold and silver ETFs. Investors have withdrawn approximately $3 billion from the GLD so far this year while the SLV has seen net inflows of $370 million over the same period. Dollar for dollar, investors are allocating as much if not more money to silver than to gold. And why shouldn’t they? Silver is much more of a "precious" metal than the current ratio of 35-to-one would suggest.
To explain, we must first address mine supply. In 2010, the world mined approximately 736 million ounces of silver and 85 million ounces of gold.3 The world also produced an additional 215 million ounces of silver and 53 million ounces of gold from recycled scrap.4 Adding both together brings us 951 million ounces of silver and 139 million ounces of gold supply, for a ratio of nine ounces of silver to one ounce of gold.

Interestingly, this 9-to-one ratio is very similar to the ratio of available in-situ silver and gold reserves. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there are current in-situ reserves of approximately 16.4 billion ounces of silver versus 1.6 billion ounces for gold, or about a 10-to-one ratio.5

The case for silver is even more compelling when one considers the ramifications of its dual role as both an investment and industrial metal. Last year, non-investment demand for silver (which includes industrial, photographic, and silverware demand) totaled approximately 610 million ounces.6 This represents approximately 64% of primary supply, leaving approximately 341 million ounces to satisfy investment demand.7 On the gold side, industrial usage totaled 13 million ounces, or about 10% of primary supply, leaving approximately 125 million ounces left over for investment demand.8 So, after netting out the industrial usage the primary supply left over for investment demand is about 2.7 times that for gold. However, if we convert those ounces to dollars at current prices, we’re left with $15 billion worth of silver available for investment versus $186 billion worth of gold, or a one-to-13 ratio of silver to gold! This means that in terms of primary supply, silver only has 8% of the capacity for investment that gold does despite having equal if not more dollars flowing into it.

Now, it’s true that another potential source of supply is the very silver that investors already own - and at the right silver price these inventories of silver and gold bullion may be sold into the market to supplement any supply shortfalls. As we’ve noted previously, however, due to decades of underinvestment, the amount of silver bullion inventories are actually extremely small, even compared to those of gold.9 Recent estimates suggest that reported silver bullion inventories stand at roughly 1.2 billion ounces versus 2.2 billion ounces of gold bullion, or roughly a 0.5-to-one ratio.10 To put that amount in perspective, consider that at present there is only $52 billion worth of silver bullion/coins and over $3.3 trillion worth of gold in inventory which could potentially be recirculated into the market. Converting this to a ratio, you get a one-to-63 ratio of silver to gold inventories. So how is silver still priced at 35-to-one?!

All indications lead us to believe that there is now roughly an equal amount of investment flowing into silver and gold on a dollar-for-dollar basis. And although the price ratio of silver to gold has fallen substantially since the highs of 2009, our analysis strongly suggests that this ratio must move lower to restore a fundamental balance between supply and demand. Only time will tell how much lower it will go, but we would not be surprised to see it hit single digits before settling into a more sustainable equilibrium.

What the so-called silver ‘experts’ neglect to account for in their models and projections is that the fiat money experiment has failed. And in this context, we believe the Market has assigned world reserve currency status to gold - not USD, not EUR, and not JPY. In our opinion, gold’s continued appreciation vis-à-vis every currency is assured because the great flight from fiat has only just begun. Like gold, silver also has a long monetary history, and as such, investors are now also buying silver as protection from the ravages of fiat currency debasement. Yet, when compared to gold, it is silver that offers the most attractive value proposition by virtue of the gross mispricing of its scarcity, which, we might add, has existed for many years. Thus, in our opinion, as this new bimetallic standard takes root, silver investors will continue to be justly rewarded with marked outperformance. We truly believe that this is the investment opportunity of a lifetime, and increasingly so, others are taking heed. What is clear to us is that with equal investment dollars now flowing into silver and gold, the current 35-to-one ratio is unsustainable and has only one direction to go: lower.

Read More: www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-expect-gold-silver-ratio-hit-single-digits

Serpo

20th April 2011, 10:27 PM

A common refrain with many precious metals commentators (including myself) is that “one day” there will be an investor “mania” in this sector, where prices will finally explode into some sort of parabolic “top”.

For those who have wasted any of their time reading the gold-bubble babble currently on display on a daily basis in the mainstream media, “no” the day when gold and/or silver reach “bubble” status is not even currently visible on the most distant horizon. Put another way, as John Williams of Shadowstats.com tells us, just to “equal” its 1980-high (in “real”, inflation-adjusted dollars), gold would have to rise to $7,500/oz. Meanwhile, at its historic 15:1 price-ratio with gold (the average for the last 5,000 years), that would put the price of silver at $500/oz.

Naturally, the fundamentals for gold and silver are much, much, much more “bullish” today than they were in 1980 – when our economies first had their ties to “good money” totally severed. Thus, $7,500/oz for gold and $500/oz for silver should not be seen as any kind of “price ceiling”, but rather more of an intermediate price target.

With the bankers doing everything they possibly can to drive the values of their fiat currencies to zero, then the “long-term price targets” for gold and silver are simply “infinity”: the “price” of gold and silver, when defined in terms of worthless paper. However, there is one event which could interfere with this progression: if investor “mania” should hit the sector before the bankers’ fiat-paper has been deemed worthless by the masses.

Ironically, I view such a “mania” as the worst thing that could happen to this sector, should it take place before the final implosion of the bankers’ paper empire. The reason such a development is to be thoroughly dreaded is because of the inevitable progression of all manias.

As prices explode to what seem to be excessive levels (even though those prices are defined in already-worthless paper), there would/will be a clear, intermediate “top” in the market. By definition, that peak would represent “irrationally” high prices for gold and silver. In the current context, for gold and silver prices to be “irrational” that would likely imply a sudden spike to a five-digit number for gold, and a four-digit number for silver.

Expanding on this irony, such a price-explosion in the precious metals sector would present precious metals investors with a terrible dilemma. On the one hand, all such manic peaks are followed by a “crash” – even in the case of precious metals, where “mania prices” would still undervalue precious metals versus worthless, fiat paper.

Thus over the short or even medium term, investors would know that they would be about to experience an horrific plunge in the value of one of their assets. The obvious, rational response to such a parameter is to sell – and take profits.

Conversely, those knowledgeable investors in this sector would also know that after the inevitable crash, that precious metals would immediately boomerang back up again – eventually exceeding any “peak” experienced during the original mania. This would cause precious metals investors to want to hold onto their assets – and simply absorb a crash.

Having already been through the Crash of ’08, and having watched my portfolio plunge toward zero once, I can say on behalf of all investors who were subjected to this that it is not a pleasant experience. And yet it would still likely be preferable to the “danger” of taking profits at the peak of the mania.

The problem with liquidating any of our precious metals holdings, even if we realize enormous (paper) “profits” is the paper. Making a 1000% gain, or a 10,000% gain in our precious metals holdings means nothing if that paper plunges to zero the next day. Thus anyone attempting to lock-in profits during a mania-phase runs the enormous risk of not being able to convert their paper back into precious metals – before the paper loses its remaining market value.

In talking about any potential, premature “mania”, Western commentators like myself are implicitly referring to their own domestic markets (along with the other Western markets with which we have more cultural and analytical familiarity). However, I would argue that if there is a premature mania in the precious metals sector, that it is much more likely to originate in the East than in the West.

There are three, very persuasive reasons to view an Eastern “mania” as a much more probable event:

1) Asian cultures (most notably China and India) have much stronger cultural and economic attachments to precious metals.

2) Asian cultures (most notably China and India) are currently buying gold and silver in much greater quantities, and with much greater enthusiasm than the average Westerner.

3) Asian cultures (most notably China and India) have vast pools of savings and incomes which are steadily rising (in real dollars), in contrast to the four-decade slide in the real incomes of the average Western citizen.

Expanding on this reasoning, the “herd” behavior which all market manias represent is obviously a much more likely phenomenon when the target of the herd is a good to which the herd-members already have a deep cultural and economic attachment. Looked at from the opposite perspective, with the average Western citizen having “forgotten” our own cultural attachment to precious metals, and having totally severed our own economic connection to precious metals, it would be much more improbable to see “gold and silver mania” sweep through Western cultures.

Indeed, despite a ten-year bull market which already represents one of the best bull-markets in the last half-century, precious metals represents roughly a 1% holding in the average, Western portfolio. You cannot get any more oblivious to the obvious appeal of gold and silver than that. Thus clearly on this basis alone, Asian “mania” is a much more likely event.

This is reinforced by the extremely robust (near-rabid?) buying of gold and silver by Indian and Chinese citizens, especially over the last year. While the gold-buying of Indians isn’t necessarily overwhelming in terms of total quantities, what is extremely bullish (and impressive) for the sector is that for once Indians have kept up their buying of gold even as it pushes to one new high after another. Typically, Indians have been extremely price-sensitive to this market, and demand often plummets when prices spike. This decisive change of behavior by the Indian gold-buyer is certainly a highly noteworthy development. Meanwhile, Chinese gold-buying simply moves relentlessly higher, quarter after quarter.

With silver, the explosion in Asian interest is even more remarkable. Last year, silver-buying in India sky-rocketed by over 500%, while silver-buying in China soared by roughly 400%. This has had a huge impact in the dynamics of the global silver market, where (as Eric Sprott tells us) China has gone from being a net exporter of roughly 100 million ounces per year to being a net importer of 112 million ounces in 2010. This change in behavior in one market by itself accounts for 25% of global silver production.

Let me repeat this, to ensure that people understand this precisely. I am not saying that “Chinese demand” totals 25% of global silver supply. I am saying that the recent increase in Chinese demand represents 25% of global silver production – on top of all the silver which China was consuming before this spike in silver demand. With the total Chinese appetite for silver representing around 1/3rd of annual, global production, that doesn’t leave much for the rest of the world – especially when the silver-lovers in India are ratcheting-up their own buying at an ever faster rate.

Most importantly, with the vast savings and sharply rising incomes in China and India, this huge surge in gold and silver buying has taken place without any leveraged-debt being accumulated. This is of tremendous significance, since all bubbles (by definition) require large amounts of leveraged-debt to exist – otherwise there is simply not a “bubble”. This allows an enormous building of momentum to take place in this market, over a long period of time. It is ultimately the momentum itself which takes on a life of its own in a “mania”, and thus the longer and stronger that the buying momentum from China and India persists, the more likely that this “momentum” will evolve into mania.

Concluding that China and India would almost certainly represent the origination of any “mania” in the gold and/or silver markets is literally only half the story here. The other half would be to hypothetically examine how such a mania would evolve – and what would happen once it had concluded.

I’ll cover those topics in the conclusion to this piece.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=18121:what-if-precious-metals-mania-hits-india-or-china-part-i&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

Serpo

22nd April 2011, 01:46 PM

http://www.marketwatch.com/Community/groups/small-silver-investor/topics/jp-morgans-silver-shorts-subtitle

There is compelling new proof of a silver (and gold) price manipulation. The evidence connects the investment bank JP Morgan Chase, the dominant force in world commodity trading, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the primary commodity regulator, and the U.S. Treasury Department, the arranger of every conceivable bailout.

This week, I received a copy of a letter, dated October 8, sent from the CFTC to a California Congressman, Gary G. Miller. It discussed allegations of a silver market manipulation because of the data in the monthly Bank Participation Report. The data in that report for August showed that one or two U.S. banks held a massive short position in COMEX silver futures of 33,805 contracts, or more than 169 million ounces. This is equal to 25% of annual world mine production, and was up more than five-fold from the prior month’s report. After this position was established, silver prices fell more than 50%, in spite of a widespread shortage in retail forms of investment silver. Never before had there been a such a large concentrated position in any market, including every manipulation case in the CFTC’s history. Concentration and manipulation go hand in hand. You can’t have one without the other.

The letter was sent to me by a reader who had the foresight to write to his Congressman. Of course, the CFTC denied that a silver manipulation existed, as they always have. This proves that the Commission responds much quicker to a member of Congress than it does to hundreds of ordinary citizens and investors. In the future, should you decide to write to the CFTC, be sure to do so through your elected representatives.

What was remarkable (and disturbing) about the letter was that it strongly confirms an analysis I presented in an article dated September 2, titled, "Fact Versus Speculation" http://www.investmentrarities.com/09-02-08.html. (didnt work for me)In that article, I speculated that the shocking increase in the silver short position by one or two U.S. banks was related to the takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan in March.

Here’s a quote from my article, dated September 2.

"I am going to speculate based upon the known facts. Maybe I will be proven correct, maybe not. However, the nature of this speculation is so disturbing, that I hope I am wrong. But I need to state it because if I am close to the mark, the implications for the silver market are profound.

I think the data in the COT and the Bank Participation Reports indicate that the U.S. Government may have bailed out the biggest COMEX silver short by arranging for a U.S. bank to take over their position. This coincides with JP Morgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns. In fact, it would not surprise me if the bailout was JP Morgan taking over Bear Stearns‘ short silver position, at the government‘s request. While this silver bailout (if it happened) was no doubt undertaken with financial system stability in mind, it has disturbing implications of legality and equity"

This is the relevant quote from the CFTC’s Oct 8 letter.

"In effect the increase [in the short position] reflected a one time acquisition of positions that were acquired through a merger in the industry, and not new trading by a bank. Thus, the assertion that there was new activity undertaken by the banks that led to a fall in silver prices is not correct since the "new" activity reflected in the CFTC’s report was in essence positions that had already existed in the market prior to July 1st."

The CFTC clearly confirms, in effect, that the big silver short position was related to JP Morgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns, since no other merger provides a plausible explanation. However, the Commission is not speaking truthfully about an increase in the concentrated short position. The CFTC’s own data, in weekly Commitment of Traders Reports (COT), show a sizable increase in concentrated short positions of some 12,000 contracts (60 million ounces) from levels before July 1st to the August Bank Participation Report.

More importantly, the real issue is not about when the one or two U.S. banks increased their short position, but how large that short position grew in the August Bank Participation Report. The CFTC is deceiving a U.S. Congressman by attempting to reduce the argument to when the short position was increased, not the obscene and manipulative size of the position. This is deception through omission and misrepresentation. What difference does it make when the manipulative position was established? The issue is how can a short position of 25% of the world production of any commodity, held by one or two U.S. banks, not be manipulative?

Bear Stearns held the largest concentrated short position in COMEX silver (and gold) futures at the time of its forced merger with JP Morgan in March. That position was not discovered until the publishing of the August Bank Participation Report followed by the October 8 letter from the CFTC to Congressman Miller. Furthermore, Bear Stearns had no legitimate backing to the short silver position, either in actual metal or cash. Otherwise it could have been delivered against or bought back, just as would have happened were it a long position.

The price of silver at the time of Bear Stearns implosion was $20 to $21 an ounce. A free market covering of a concentrated short position of this size would have driven silver prices to the $50 or $100 level and would have exposed the long-term manipulation. Rather than let the free market deal with the required short covering of such an uneconomic and unbacked short position, government authorities arranged to have the short position transferred to JP Morgan. This was undertaken by the U.S. Treasury Department, along with taxpayer guarantees against loss to Morgan worth billions of dollars. This was done, no doubt, to save the financial system from imploding. This was also patently illegal, as it aided and abetted the silver manipulation.

I’m sure the motive behind the illegal transfer of the silver short position was the mistaken assumption by Treasury that an explosion in the price of silver (and gold) would threaten overall financial stability. Well guess what - they succeeded in crushing the price of gold and silver, but to no avail, as financial stability has been shattered.

JP Morgan was not just an accommodative good corporate citizen in the illegal transfer of the manipulative silver (and gold) COMEX short position. In addition to undisclosed government guarantees against loss, JP Morgan was given free reign to liquidate the COMEX short position at their discretion, knowing full-well the regulators would look the other way, no matter what dirty tricks were necessary to cause the price to collapse. Nor was JP Morgan a neutral agent in the silver price collapse. Data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) http://www.occ.gov/deriv/deriv.htm indicates that JP Morgan held a much larger Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives position in silver and gold than was transferred to them from Bear Stearns.

My analysis shows that Morgan has made many billions of dollars, perhaps tens of billions, from their downward engineering of silver and gold prices from their combined COMEX and OTC short positions. They have used that engineered price decline to buy back as many short positions as possible. If investors are wondering what caused the destruction of billions of dollars in gold and silver values, metal and share price alike, look no further than JP Morgan, and the government officials who enabled them.

There can be no question that the CFTC is complicit in all these illegal activities. Same with the CME Group, owner of the NYMEX/COMEX. It is not possible that they are not privy and an active party to this successful downward manipulation. To think that officials at the CFTC, from the top of the agency, to staffers and even the Inspector General, have taken oaths of office to uphold commodity law and then have allowed that law to be repeatedly violated is beyond repugnant. That they have knowingly participated in an organized cover-up of this manipulation and have taken to lying to a Congressman calls for criminal prosecution.

As bad as this is, it gets worse. The downward manipulation of the price of silver, initiated by the U.S. Treasury, undertaken by JP Morgan Chase and sanctioned and aided by the CFTC and the CME Group has proven so successful in destroying investment values that the low price of silver is now threatening to destroy tens of thousands of jobs of those who mine silver for a living, here in the US and throughout the world. Who do these people think they are that they can allow the artificial paper price to alter real supply/demand fundamentals? Those in charge of enforcing the law have enriched a few sleazy bankers who trade toxic paper derivatives at the expense of tens of thousands of innocent investors and now ordinary workers. This should make your blood boil.

Serpo

22nd April 2011, 02:42 PM

.http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c01538e07d3cc970b-popup

beefsteak

23rd April 2011, 06:00 PM

Serpo,

could it be possible that the reply#105 of yours up above was genuinely originally composed and posted Nov 8th-ish 2009? That's how many days ago, approximately 892 days are according to some of the charts at that link.

Was that researcher 'early' in his / her understanding or what!!!

Thanks.

Serpo

25th April 2011, 01:46 AM

Looks that way Beefsteak...history in the making ,the game has been up for a while I guess and about to unfold.Exciting times.Take a look at this..............http://13minutes-after-midnight.blogspot.com/2011/04/closing-bell_22.html

Serpo

1st May 2011, 10:28 PM

100% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.
Silver Market Update originally published May 1st, 2011

Monday, 2 May 2011 4:47

The big question on the minds of silver investors and especially silver traders is whether the meltup in silver has run its course, or whether it has further to go. On Monday last week we saw temporary burnout with a Reversal Day showing up on the chart at a point where silver was fantastically overbought. On the basis of this, and also the extremely bullish public opinion on silver and extremely bearish public opinion on the dollar (the public are normally wrong) it was reasonable to conclude that silver had either topped out or that a correction was imminent, and that is what we did conclude. However, the situation is now complicated by the fact that the latest COT figures reveal that Commercial short and Large Spec long positions have been dramatically scaled back just over the past week, which is not what you would expect to see ahead of a drop - what should happen is that Commercial short positions either ramp up or least remain constant. This latest COT chart by itself portends another upleg soon. To make life even more interesting we had a bizarre divergence between the performance of gold and silver on Friday, with gold soaring and silver reacting back by about 50 cents. Even though they theoretically shouldn't, gold and silver normally move as if joined at the hip in their day to day fluctuations, so this huge divergence was most unusual. What can we put it down to? - well, silver has stalled out at its 1980 highs, and even though the 1980 highs are 31 years ago so we wouldn't expect much resistance at this level as very few will have held on for all those years, it is still a psychologically important level because a break above it means silver attaining new all time highs, and these highs happen to coincide with major "round number" resistance at the $50 level. Therefore, if silver gets above this level we can expect the meltup to accelerate even more, and the COT chart does suggest that this level will soon fall. This is why silver held back on Friday even as gold advanced strongly - the $50 level is hugely important.

To say that silver's uptrend looks unsustainable on its long-term charts would rank as one of the understatements of the year, given how incredibly overbought it is on its MACD indicator, yet, as we have observed the latest COT chart does suggest another upleg. You have all heard the saying "Be careful what you wish for - (because you might not like the consequences if it comes true), and that is certainly the case here, for if silver's meltup continues, and gold moves into meltup mode too, which may have just started on Friday, then it probably means a collapse in the dollar - not a drop, a COLLAPSE, that will have disastrous consequences for the US economy and way of life as a result of inflation ramping up in the direction of hyperinflation, which will collapse living standards in the US and destroy the middle class (what's left of it), most of whom will suddenly find gas unaffordable and food very costly. It will be back to commuting to work on a bus, if you are lucky enough to have a job, that is, and if you happen to live near a bus route. Look on the bright side, it will at least help to conserve the world's oil supplies.

Obviously, if you are long silver or silver stocks, you will want to milk the meltup for all it's worth - after all, it would be a shame to sell now and then have silver tack another say $30 in a matter of just weeks. But at the same time, you don't want to be around if the wheel suddenly comes off, especially given that when silver drops it drops like a rock. The way to handle this? - simple - stay long and buy yourself cheap protection in the form of out-of-the-money Put options in silver itself, or Call options in something like the ProShares Ultrashort Silver, code ZSL. The cost of these options is peanuts compared to what you will save yourself if silver should suddenly tank.

www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

Serpo

1st May 2011, 11:26 PM

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/

Serpo

3rd May 2011, 08:46 PM

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-decline-registered-silver-brinAnother Decline In Registered Silver Brings Total Comex Physical To Multi-Year Lows
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2011 17:05 -0400

One would think that following the total "annihilation" (as it has already been pegged by some) in silver over the past few days, that Comex would promptly reverse its "temporary" reclassification of Registered into Eligible silver, or so the believers in Comex holdings claim. Which is why to our surprise we noticed that today, the Comex announced that the ongoing inverse reclassification from Registered into Eligible continues, with Scotia Mocatta seeing another 186 thousand ounces of physical silver moving into that dark pool known as "eligible" holdings.

This, following on the footsteps of last week's massive reclass action, which saw 20% of the Comex Registered silver being shifted away, means that today's Comex physical silver has now fallen to a fresh multi-year low of just 33.152 million ounces. Add to this the fact that there was another withdrawal of 300k ounces from Brinks, and one may wonder just how "justified" the fall in silver price has been over the past 2 days.

And for those who enjoy seeing long-term charts below, courtesy of 24 hour gold, is a long-term chart showing Registered silver inventories at the Comex. It kinda speaks for itself.gs-total-comex-physical-multi-year-lows

Serpo

3rd May 2011, 08:51 PM

NUTS to all of you ‘top pickers!’

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1304432068.php

Serpo

5th May 2011, 01:49 PM

http://fx5186.wordpress.com/

Gold Index is Topping with a 7-Month “Three-Peaks and Domed-House” Pattern

Last week I introduced an intermediate term “Three Peaks and the Domed House“ pattern on the gold index, and indicated that gold index was sharply approaching the “Roof” phase of the domed house. On Friday the gold index reached my price target 1540 and even over-shot to 1568 that made a distinct figure for the “Roof” phase. Let’s review what my model says. With my modified version of George Lindsay’s basic model, the “Three Peaks and the Domed House” pattern can be divided into five major phases:

1) Three Peaks phase,
2) Basement phase,
3) First Floor phase,
4) Roof phase, and
5) Plunge phase.

This modified version, using “phase-counting”, is a macro approach to Lindsay’s basic model, and it is different from the classical micro approach using “number-counting” from 1 to 28.
In the following daily chart, the gold index developed the “Three Peaks” phase from last November to last December. It had a separating decline to reach a low at 1308 and formed the “Basement” phase (bear trap) in the late of this January. Then it started a rapid advance in February and built the “First Floor” of the Domed House in March.

Since the early of April, the gold index has been in another rapid advance, and now it is in the “Roof” phase (bull trap) that is the top of the pattern. On Friday the current advance reached my price target 1540 that was a projection based on a measure move with the same length and duration of the advance move right before the “First Floor” phase. In the “Roof” phase of the domed house, the most typically phenomenon is that almost everyone gets very bullish and truly believes much higher prices will come, or even expects shooting the moon. A very good article written by Lorimer Wilson last week documented such an extreme bullish sentiment: 128 Analysts Believe Gold will Go to $5000 or More!

The true range of the gold index on Friday increased dramatically, which indicates that gold prices could become very volatile. Several fireworks should be typical in the “Roof” phase. Based on the model, the next move of the gold index should roll over into the “Plunge” phase which is the last phase of the “Three-Peaks and the Domed House” pattern, with a potential sharp decline of 17% down to the 1290 level for a consolidation, most likely in the time span of May and June. This phase usually has two consecutive powerful down waves, and the second wave is much more severe than the first wave. Please note this model will end as the “Plunge” phase matures and it has no further projection either in the upside or downside after the “Plunge” phase.

Silver Index is in an 8-Month Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern

Silver index is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern in an 8-month time span as shown in the daily chart below. This pattern typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. According to Thomas Bulkowski, this pattern consists of three main phases:

1. A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in hight between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.

2. A bump phase where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line. Silver currently is in the bump phase, and its uptrend may continue as long as prices stay above the sell line.

3. A run phase in which prices break below the sell line often causing a bearish reversal to happen. Based on the current projection, the price level of the sell line on Silver index is near 46. If it breaks down 46, the silver index could run into a very ugly sharp decline down to the 39 level or even down more to the 33 level, that should correspond to the “Plunge” phase of the gold index.

SLV^GLD

5th May 2011, 02:23 PM

This phase usually has two consecutive powerful down waves, and the second wave is much more severe than the first wave.

:boohoo

Serpo

18th May 2011, 06:56 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elzmzwaicl4&feature=player_embedded#at=529

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKQOXNe845g&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQ8bUAX9d4&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQCuoH-ZuoE&feature=related

Serpo

5th June 2011, 05:28 AM

I project that by the end of this year the dollar will be worthless, food shortages will escalate, and riots/gangs will take over our inner cities. You need to liquidate your dollar based assets now and purchase hard commodities like silver, food, temporary shelter, seeds and other supplies you will need when the grid comes down.

Don't be a sheep. They get eaten by the wolves.

Gold will be confiscated. Silver can't be confiscated because it has too many other uses. The Satanic Psychopaths do not want you to own silver, thus the manipulation of spot prices to the downside. They are also buying up every ounce they can get their hands on, thus the price manipulation to the down side and shrinking silver inventories. Many companies have already gone out of business and the COMEX supplies of silver are down a whopping 38% over the past 2 weeks!

"The supply situation in the silver market gets more interesting by the day.

Registered COMEX silver inventories have fallen to multiyear lows at 29,631,268 ounces. In the last 5 days they fell from 32,132,903 ounces to Tuesday’s holdings of 29,631,268 ounces. As can be seen in the table below registered silver inventories fell every single day last week leading to a sharp fall of 8.4% in 5 days.

Registered metals are those metals which meet the standards for delivery under the silver futures contracts and for which a receipt from an Exchange-approved depository or warehouse has been issued. Eligible metals are those which meet the delivery standards as stated in the rules for which no receipt from an Exchange-approved warehouse has been issued.

This is a long term trend that has been seen since the early 1990s when total COMEX silver stockpiles were over 101.45 million ounces.

However, the scale of the drop in inventories since early 2008 is significant and the trend has accelerated in recent weeks.

Registered silver inventories are down a sharp 38.5% in just two weeks – from 41,044,280 to 29,631,268. (Source)

That my friend, is the definition of price manipulation. Supply is down, demand is up and prices go down? This is Phase 1 of the Illuminati silver shortage plan. They don't want you to have any, so they buy up whatever they can while shorting the spot price of silver through Put Options. Phase 2 will begin shortly. Prices will escalate substantially and you will no longer be able to afford silver bullion.

http://www.moneyteachers.org/Silver+Shortage.htm

Neuro

5th June 2011, 08:26 AM

Comex shortage of silver bullion will be a gamechanger...

Serpo

1st July 2011, 12:53 AM

Caveat Venditor!

By: Eric Sprott & Andrew Morris

The recent bear raid on silver has left many concerned about the sustainability of its historic run. Silver, being a relatively obscure market for most mainstream commentators, attracted much attention in the ensuing days following the May 1 takedown. Indeed, though the 30% drop in silver occurred over only four days, seemingly all eyes were on silver, with commentators who could’ve cared less about the silver market only a couple of months ago, suddenly tripping all over one another to make the bubble call. Silver bubble 2.0? Hardly. Anyone who has been fortunate to have been invested in silver over the past few years would unfortunately be used to such blatant takedowns. The Chinese don’t call it the "Devil’s Metal" for no good reason. With so much talk these days about the risks of investing in silver, we think that perhaps it may be timely for us to weigh in on the matter. The silver market is riskier than ever, but for reasons the vast majority of pedestrian commentators have failed to grasp.

There is no doubt that speculative dollars have been flowing into the silver market. We note that in April record trading volumes were registered in the SLV1, Comex futures2, LBMA transfers3, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange futures4. In fact, converting the average daily trading volume in the aforementioned silver instruments to the amount of ounces of silver they are supposed to represent, there were on average, over 1.1 billion ounces worth of silver traded every day in the month of April5. Truly a staggering number when contrasted against the actual amount of silver available for investment. To wit, the world will only supply about 979 million ounces this year from mine and recycling of scrap, of which it is estimated that 657 million ounces will be used up for non-investment purposes6. So in effect, that leaves roughly only 322 million ounces available this year for investment purposes. Converting to days (recall that at least 1.1 billion ounces traded each day) it leaves only about 1.3 million ounces per trading day of available supply. So, we are essentially trading the amount of physical silver actually available for investment, 891 times over each day! It really begs the question; just what are people trading in these markets?

Consider the largest and most prominent of those markets - the Comex, which we believe has owned an effective monopoly on silver price discovery for decades. In fact, the Comex churned over 800 million ounces of silver futures and options on average each day in April7. Indeed, notwithstanding the massive but very opaque over-the-counter silver derivatives market, trading on the Comex dwarfs both the physical and the other (known) paper silver markets, combined. Despite its dynamics being relatively complex and generally not well understood by most, the world’s financial community continues to view trading on the Comex as representative of the fundamentals for the physical silver markets. A market built on a high amount of leverage, both the buyers and sellers of Comex futures and options contracts are able to establish a position in "silver" with pennies on the dollar in collateral and even more astonishingly, no physical silver backing the contracts at all. The following charts illustrate just how unreal these markets have become.

Chart A:
paper_chart1_june2011.jpg
Source: Bloomberg, Sprott Asset Management

Chart B:
paper_chart_2_june2011.jpg
Source: Bloomberg, Sprott Asset Management

In chart A, we compare the total open interest in Comex futures and option contracts to the actual amount of silver held in registered inventories able to be delivered against those contracts, since 2009. In chart B, with the steeply-sloping line shows the ratio of open interest (i.e. paper silver ounces) per ounce of physical silver held in inventory. We believe the historical trend of rising open interest and falling inventories deserves considerable attention from anyone attempting to understand the silver market. And though we do note that since October 2010 the trend of rising open interest appears to have abated, the inventories have been evaporating steadily and thus the ratio of the two measures has continued to trend higher. In fact, since 2009 the ratio of paper silver to physical silver has increased fourfold from approximately 8 times to almost 33 times, where it stands today.

What is the significance of this discord between paper and physical supply on the Comex? Recall, that over 800 million ounces traded each day in April on that market. Further, consider that as at the end of April there were only 33 million ounces of registered inventories to back up all of that paper trading. Just imagine if a mere 5% of all of that buying actually stood for delivery; the entire inventories would be more than wiped out. Yet despite the steady erosion of these already scant Comex inventories - a characteristic which would surely be interpreted as most bullish in other commodity markets - the price of silver has actually declined since April. We endeavour to provide a framework for understanding this phenomenon below.

Those who were following the developments in the silver market in April and May (we note that there were many who were) will likely recall that the CME Group raised both initial and maintenance margins five times within less than a two week span effectively raising the minimum amount of capital required to participate in the silver futures market by 84%8. This is significant due to the amount of leverage in the futures market and also due to the losses resulting from the precipitous selloff which began on Sunday, May 1st, when several thousand contracts were wantonly dumped onto the very thinly traded after-hours silver futures market causing the silver price to plunge 13% within the span of less than 15 minutes9.

For example, consider a hypothetical speculative trader who went long, say 200 July 2011 SI futures contracts on April 28th. At that time this trader would have been required to post an initial margin of $2.565 million for a position of one million ounces of "silver" and thus would have been levered 18.5 times10. Below we present what the trade blotter for this trader might look like over the next few days assuming he maintained his position.

paper_0611128_table1.jpg

Following the initial trade, each day the trader’s positions would be marked-to-market and any losses or gains would be applied against his account’s equity balance. Should the losses on the position bring the equity balance below the maintenance margin level, the trader would be required to deposit the additional capital required to bring the equity in the account back up to at least the initial margin requirement level.

While the margin increases alone would have forced a decision for this leveraged long to either post the additional margin or close enough positions to bring margin balances in line with substantially higher requirements, the trader was actually fighting a battle on two fronts. This is because in addition to the margin increases, the trader was also experiencing massive losses to his capital due to a rapidly falling silver price. So it is also important to consider the extent of losses to the trader’s equity following the precipitous drop which began on the evening of May 1st. In our scenario, before finding a bottom around May 17th, the cumulative losses would have amounted to over $14 million, or over five times the initial margin deposit of $2.565 million that was required to take on the position on April 28th. This meant that with margin call after margin call, the capital committed to the position ballooned almost 700% by the time the silver price finally bottomed in mid May. The significance of such a dramatic erosion of capital on a leveraged position cannot be overstated, particularly in the context of rising margin requirements. The CME Group would know this very well, and so it strikes us as particularly suspect that they would continue to raise margin rates in the face of such a sharp selloff. A selloff, we might add, which emanated from highly unusual trading activity on May 1st that, in our opinion, just reeks of manipulation. How else can one explain the dumping of several thousand SI futures contracts within the course of 15 minutes, in one of the most illiquid hours of trading, without seemingly any regard for price or a fundamental catalyst to speak of11? Though we will let the reader connect the dots as to what the intent of the CME Group and the seller’s of SI futures contracts on May 1st really was, we can certainly observe what effect these actions had on the market by looking further into the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the CFTC.

The COT provides us with the weekly open interest held by various categories of silver futures market participants, and thus gives us clues as to how these participants reacted in response to these margin increases and ensuing volatility. We present the following table showing net open interest for the various categories, converted into silver ounces, which we obtained from the COT report for selected dates.

paper_0611128_table2.jpg

First, note how in the three weeks following the margin hikes, the speculative12 net long position dropped from 212.7 million ounces to 170.1 million. This very clearly indicates that the speculative longs, when faced with rising margin requirements and losses to capital, did close out a substantial amount of their long positions. The commercials who were short those 212.7 million ounces appear to have been taking every opportunity to cover their own positions. Rather than shorting further into the ensuing weakness, the commercials covered approximately 42.6 million ounces in the three week period.

Another piece of information gleaned from the COT data is that despite what many commentators were hailing as a bubble caused by excessive speculation in the futures markets, the net speculative long positions had in fact been dropping over time. Even during the April run up preceding the five margin hikes, the net speculative long position actually decreased by 23%.

That commercial short position deserves further mention. What is unique and of interest to many silver market observers is not only the size of the short position on the Comex, which is dominated by those "commercials", but also the concentration of the short interest. We provide the percentage of the total open interest held by the four largest short sellers on a net basis in the table above. Note that the net position of the four largest equates to 29% of the total open interest as of May 17th. Further we would also note that the concentrated short interest of the big four, though still quite high has actually dropped substantially over the past year coinciding with the signing of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the resultant public discourse on position limits. Comments from CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton acknowledging the "repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets," and that, "violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted," perhaps have also had an impact on the behavior of silver market participants.13 And though the CFTC’s investigation into the silver futures and options market remains open after three years, we remain hopeful that its findings will further serve the interests of the investing public who rightly expect a fair and transparent silver market void of manipulative forces.

Could the drop in open interest and the reduction of the concentration in the commercial short open interest be perceived as an indication that those top four short-sellers are positioning for the inevitable imposition of position limits rules? Perhaps, and if so, it would follow that likely the short sellers seized the opportunity to further reduce their "liabilities" by buying up contracts in early May at a 30% discount.

Let there be no mistake, we view the current setup as extremely bullish. In our view, whatever froth and excess was present in the paper markets has likely been shaken out in the recent selloff. The remaining longs do not seem willing to part with their silver at these prices. These are the strong hands with longer time horizons that are likely not overly leveraged or are willing and able to withstand substantial volatility. Moreover, perhaps the "game" on the paper silver markets which has been meticulously documented over decades by Ted Butler14 and others, will soon be coming to an end.

What is perhaps most important is that despite what has recently transpired in the paper silver markets, the robust demand fundamentals for silver have not changed in our view. For confirmation of this, look no further than the physical silver market (i.e. the real silver market) which is providing us with evidence almost daily of a sustained bull market for physical silver. The US Mint recently stated that, "demand for American Silver Eagle Coins remains at unprecedented high levels."15 Likewise for the Perth Mint16, the Austrian Mint17, and the Royal Canadian Mint18 as well. The Chinese, who were net exporters of silver only four years ago, imported 300% more silver in 2010 than 2009 and such large quantities of imports are expected to continue19. Last year, Indian silver imports increased nearly six-fold, and this year consumption is expected to rise nearly 43% according to the Bombay Bullion Association20. In Utah, silver (along with gold, of course) will now be accepted in weight value as legal tender21. According to Hugo Salinas-Price, a prominent Mexican billionaire, there is now "very strong support for the monetization of silver" in the Mexican congress22. We suspect the Europeans are likely to account for an increasing amount of silver purchases going forward as well. In fact, we just can’t imagine a better outlook for silver fundamentals. This really makes us question who could be short such massive quantities of silver and why? Particularly in those leveraged paper silver markets, where as we demonstrated, only a fraction of the outstanding notional ounces are actually available in physical quantity.

We have a very tough time understanding those bearish arguments against silver. We look at the real silver market, and based on the supply and demand data coming from the real, physical markets for silver, the fundamentals are only getting stronger. And yet there exists another silver market, which as we’ve shown, is not very connected to the physical realm at all. And though silver investors have for decades suffered the tyranny of a rigged paper monopoly over silver price discovery, it appears to us that the tides are turning. In the age of QE to infinity, investors are being more scrupulous with their capital and as such they are demanding physical silver in quantity. With more and more dollars flowing into the silver markets and a finite supply of physical to meet that demand, the theoretical losses for the paper silver short-sellers are near infinite. And with such a skewed and obvious risk/reward payoff vastly favoring the longs, we pose the following question. Who is most at risk in the silver markets: the buyers of a scarce and real asset that serves a growing multitude of purposes, or the sellers, who are short a quantity of silver which may very well not even be obtainable at anywhere near current prices? Let the Seller Beware!

For more information about Sprott Asset Management’s views on silver and its silver bullion funds, please visit www.sprott.com.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1193/sprott-latest-must-read-and-turdite-video

Serpo

1st July 2011, 12:53 AM

Serpo

13th August 2011, 06:26 PM

http://goldsilverpreservewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/aug-13-silver-one-year-performance.jpg

JJ.G0ldD0t

13th August 2011, 07:20 PM

http://goldsilverpreservewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/aug-13-silver-one-year-performance.jpg

and what do we anticipate form looking at this?

Serpo

16th August 2011, 09:39 AM

Silver Market Update

http://www.silverseek.com/news/CliveMaund/clivemaund.PNG
By: Clive Maund

-- Posted 16 August, 2011 |
Silver held up surprisingly well during the stockmarket collapse - you will recall that we had expected it to take more of a beating - no doubt assisted by gold's sparkling performance, so that now, having held above strong support, and with a marked improvement in its COT structure over the past week, it is believed to be poised for a really strong upleg.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2011/8-15cms/1.gifThe 6-month chart for silver shows HUGE upside potential, with a powerful uptrend starting from right where we are now. If the interpretation of the wave count is correct (this can be a big "if" of course, but it does look very clear at this point), then the point we are at now is close to the trough of the wave 2 reaction that should now immediately lead to a strong wave 3 uptrend, all this following the 3-wave A-B-C correction shown on the chart. Even without reference to wave theories the chart certainly looks encouraging as silver managed to break above the quite strong resistance in the $39.00 - $39.50 zone on its wave 1 advance which is now functioning as a support level, in addition to which its moving averages are now in bullish alignment and it is not overbought on short to medium-term oscillators as made clear by the RSI and MACD indicators on the chart. Everything appears to be in place for a big rally to get going - "all systems go" as they used to say.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2011/8-15cms/2.gifFurther evidence that a big rally is brewing in silver is provided by the latest COT chart, which shows a surprisingly large reduction in Commercial short positions in just one week - the Commercials are getting out of the way, which signals a rally - and it may have just started with today's 85 cent rise.

http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1313474760.php

Serpo

16th August 2011, 09:41 AM

and what do we anticipate form looking at this?

Not sure really but interesting chart to see that silver has doubled in a year........Clive Maunds are interesting though

Serpo

23rd August 2011, 02:17 PM

Gold Stocks & Silver: This Is It!

-- Posted Tuesday, 23 August 2011 | | Source: GoldSeek.com

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1314117196.php
Graceland Updates

By Stewart Thomson

1. A maniac is dictionary-defined as a person who is either a raving lunatic or overly-zealous about something. For example, a person could be said to be maniacally obsessed with… details.

2. I’m overly obsessed with silver and gold stock details right now. I’m obsessed with the mountain of buy orders I have in the market for silver bullion, and for gold stock. For example, as of this morning, for silver, my buy orders are now every 10 cents down.

3. I labelled the $1462-$1478 price lows for gold as the “zone of doom”, because 93% of gold analysts were documented as bearish at the time of those lows. I spoke of the gold stocks gulag, and that phrase summed up the horrors endured by long time gold stock investors. I spoke of enduring your way to victory.

4. Click HERE NOW to view why you endured the gulag. Party time is here. Rocket launch time is near. That’s a nice rhyme, and a nicer reality. Congratulations to all gold stock astronauts for staying in the space ship, rather than running to mommy at the photocopy machine.

5. The weekly GDX chart shows an epic volume bar. The bottom line is that gold bullion has set up GDX…. to literally blow the doors off the US dollar. You thought you were in a gulag, but it was a spaceship on the launch pad. Welcome, champions, to the real world!

6. Some seemed to go into physical shock as gold went near-vertical from $1478, when it was supposed to roll over dead, according to their summer doldrums kiddie script. I’ve labelled this $1478-1910 move in time and price as the pre-parabola zone.

7. Most analysts, and investors, are trying hard to call a short term top on gold, and are labelling this area as extremely overbought. My question is, “is that really relevant, here and now, in the greatest economic crisis in world history?”

8. You need to look in the mirror and ask yourself why you’re here, as a card-carrying gold community soldier. In the parabola zone, there are going to be the biggest hits on gold yet, and they are impossible to predict. If I blow up some egos, I apologize, but you need to ask yourself if you want to predict what cannot be predicted, or if you want to get richer.

9. I believe silver has a head and shoulders base pattern on it that is 30 years in size, and a break-out is imminent. That’s why I’m buying silver every 10 cents down. Not here or there. Every 10 cents down. I’m not looking for “strategic entry points”; I’m mauling the market with buys.

10. Click HERE NOW to view the greatest base pattern in the history of markets!

11. How high can a 30 year head and shoulders base pattern propel the price of silver? I don’t know, but this price pattern is arguably the largest base pattern in the history of markets, and the question is, are you onside?

12. The tactical approach to operating in the parabolic zone is to tone down, substantially, your analysis of where price is going, and tone up your response to what actually happens. In terms of size, you need to sell like a bird on strength, and buy like an elephant on weakness.

13. Europe is burning, the dollar is burning, and governments are burning. Elmer Fudd Public Investor won’t have any stock market investments by the time the final bell rings on this, the big show. He’s going to make the people in the 1930’s breadlines look like they were in the party zone! The bottom line is that the big picture is going out of control and ushering in the gold parabola zone.

14. Martin Armstrong talks of hedge funds betting on the demise of European “virtual currencies”. He argues that national government bonds are being shorted by the fundsters as though they are national currencies of those nations. He worries that unless national debts are consolidated into a single Eurobond issue, dictators could arise in nations like Greece. These nations can’t devalue their currencies, and the market is devaluing their bonds like they are currencies going off the board!

15. I’ll add that the euro horror show playing out before your eyes now, gives you a glimpse into the supreme gulag being planned for you by the banksters, with their one world government/one world currency scheme. They know the horrors it will bring to you, and plan to use those horrors to enrich themselves, all the way to the quadrillionaire zone. Yes, maybe it is a good idea to get your hand off that gold top calling button, now.

16. Maybe it’s also time to give the tick chart technical analysis of the gold market a bit of a rest, and enjoy the ride! Don’t do to yourself in silver and gold stocks, what many have done to themselves in gold bullion already, with their failed top calls. While others talk about how low silver and gold stocks might go if the Dow crashes, I’m sucking up silver every 10 cents down, without a single missed buy. Have you missed any buys? Well, please miss some more, because that’s just more silver for me. Thanks!

17. The price hits on gold and its blood relatives, in the parabola zone, are going to be ultra-sharp, ultra-short, and ultra-unpredictable. Note that word, “unpredictable” and keep it mind before pressing your gold top call button. Most of you have no idea how fast the gold punisher can leave you in dollar dust, in the parabola zone.

18. I expect gold to rise by an average of $100-$200 per day, silver by $3-$5 per day, and GDX by $5 per day, as the OTC derivatives–loaded US T-bond market implodes, in the greatest financial fireball in the history of markets.

19. The stratospheric price point implications the base pattern in silver are a direct indication of the size of the interest rate OTC derivatives horror. The bond market is not a safe haven. It’s a time bomb, and the banksters are making their way towards it now, with fuses and lighters. Are you sure you want to play gold top caller here?

20. Are you sure that an OTC derivatives interest rate fireball that causes the total destruction of the American government bond market is really a reason to top call gold today? Maybe you can time your way through the coming implosion of the bond market. I say all the timers will look like microscopic glow worms, by the time the banksters finish with them.

21. This is it! We’re on the edge of the gold parabola and, horrifically, most investors seem to be trying to top call themselves out of gold, and onto the breadline, alongside Elmer Fudd Public Investor! My suggestion, instead, is to stay strong. Sell like a bird. Don’t plop into silver or gold stocks. Buy consistently like a machine, on all weakness, with risk capital you can reasonably place. Most investors have no clue how bullish for gold the implosion of the bond market is, and the time is near. I think an event in Europe lights the whole interest rate OTC derivatives garbage dump on fire, but it could be any trigger.

22. The Dow is almost out of control. The dollar bear market is on the verge of going out of control. The term “out of control” is the key driver of the gold parabola. Look around you, ladies and gentlemen, and you tell me while you have your finger on the gold top call button… are you doing, really, the right thing? I say that it’s the buy button you need to be focused on, and my strongest suggestion to you is that you don’t learn this key fact, the hard way!

Serpo

20th September 2011, 11:00 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIDZS-cLFMM&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIDZS-cLFMM&feature=player_embedded

Serpo

21st September 2011, 06:27 PM

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market.html

With gold hovering near the $1,800 level, a trader out of London told King World News, “China is trading gold at a $17 premium today vs COMEX futures. Silver is trading at a premium of $2.48 vs futures price (COMEX). What this tells you is that these people in China are willing to pay the equivalent of roughly $12,500 more per contract than what silver is being traded for on the COMEX.”

</frame>

London Trader continues:

“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions.

If there is that strong of a bid for gold out of the Eastern hemisphere, what that tells me is that all of the heavily leveraged paper manipulation in the West will not have much more downside impact. All the manipulators are doing at this point is compressing a spring, but at some point this market is eventually going to gap up incredibly hard against them.

Two weeks ago there were some indications that the gold market was going to be taken down, an example being the sharp drop in lease rates. You know how this works, a central bank(s) are selling some gold into the market and the bullion banks, which act as agents for the central banks, take that gold and sell it into the market and even use leverage at weak technical points....

Continue reading the London Trader interview below...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market_files/shapeimage_22.jpg

(http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2011/6/16_Wesdome_Gold_Mines_Ltd._files/Wesdome%20Gold%206%3A17%3A2011.mp3)

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market_files/shapeimage_23.jpg

“They also do this when trading is thin, such as during the access market when no one is around, and they drive the price lower in an attempt to create panic by the longs.

After lease rates had dropped and the gold market was attacked, we find out after the fact that the central banks decided to raise dollars by leasing gold. The central banks had not done that for two years. Central banks have been preserving central bank gold and overall the central banks have been net buyers, and then all of the sudden they lease it, thus selling it into the market.

For what it is worth, this gold goes right into an Asian vault and it is gone from the West permanently. This is having the effect of transferring Western solid assets over to the East, in size. This has the appearance of desperation because in the end this is really an attempt to save the too big to fail banks that are on the wrong side of a derivative play yet again. That is the reason this is being done.

Western central banks don’t really want that gold to disappear like that, they don’t want to sell that gold. They had to raise dollars in a hurry to pump liquidity into the system, but in the end, as I said, the gold is gone. In the old days the gold would be floating around the LBMA system, there would be a little bit of erosion, but today that gold is being sucked into the East.

This price action has had the effect of creating bearish sentiment, but meanwhile the physical buyers are just sitting there and constantly accumulating physical gold. There are massive orders for tonnage of gold, incredible amounts between $1,715 and $1,760. This has the effect of putting a physical floor under the price of gold. If they make a push to the $1,715 level that would be suicide in my opinion. There are simply too many massive orders for physical gold down to that level for that to be breached.

During this quarter this leased gold is supposed to be paid back, but how? As the central banks come to grips with the reality that the leased gold is gone, there may be a religious experience to the upside in gold and you will see the gold price break the $2,000 level.

As far as silver goes, the paper price is becoming increasingly irrelevant. It is possible there could be a spike to $37 or $38 in thin access trading, but the bottom line is that serious physical buying will be taking place anywhere below $40, so this is a losing game for the paper manipulators.”

This is the same trader that told King World News on August 10th with gold trading near the $1,800 level, “The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous. The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market. If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market. In fact, don’t be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience.”

Within days the price of gold spiked more than $100, breaking the $1,900 level. Now the London Trader is telling King World News to expect this massive physical floor on gold to hold and that we should also look for gold to take off to the upside through the $2,000 level. If sentiment is any indicator, the pessimism in gold could be signaling this market is in fact ready to turn, let’s see what happens.

Serpo

21st September 2011, 06:31 PM

Dan Norcini - Huge $17 Gold & $2.48 Silver Premiums in China

With a fierce bull/bear battle developing in gold around the $1,800 level, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair’s chartist Dan Norcini. When asked about the incredible strength in the gold market under the $1,800 level, Norcini stated, “Earlier today your source out of London mentioned the Chinese were paying a $17 premium for gold and an astounding $2.48 premium for silver vs the COMEX over in Shanghai. This is absolutely incredible and you can see it in the charts. The support that is underneath this market is rock solid -- that’s the Asians who are buying in the London and COMEX markets. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_$17_Gold_%26_$2.48_Silver_Premiums_in_China_ files/droppedImage.jpg (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Archive.html)
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_$17_Gold_%26_$2.48_Silver_Premiums_in_China_ files/shapeimage_28.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_$17_Gold_&_$2.48_Silver_Premiums_in_China_files/shapeimage_28_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_$17_Gold_&_$2.48_Silver_Premiums_in_China_files/shapeimage_28_link_1.png

“As I read that piece, Eric, it was a confirmation of the technical action that has showed very strong buying below the $1,800 level and it keeps forcing the market back up rather quickly. Yesterday it appeared that the buyers were waiting to see if they could pick up some gold at cheaper prices, but today they lost patience and you could see the concerted buying effort, which took gold right back above the $1,800 level.

When the Western central banks started their assault on the gold price about two weeks ago, they took the price of gold down over $60 in one minute’s time in the thin trading conditions in the access market. It was an attempt on their part to induce enough long side liquidation by the speculative community, particularly the hedge funds. It was also an attempt at trying to entice them into a sell mode to help drive the gold price lower.

This has been the pattern for Western central bank gold price manipulation, the attempt to get others to continue the selling for them once they initially pull the trigger. Well, what’s been happening is that when the hedge funds have been selling, instead of the gold price cascading sharply lower, the gold price is finding buyers. It will not collapse, they cannot create the normal avalanche of selling, even with hedge funds liquidating 67,000 long contracts because of what is taking place in the physical market.

Somebody is obviously coming into this market and buying in size, in sufficient quantities, which is thwarting the central bank manipulation efforts dead in their tracks....

Continue reading the Dan Norcini interview below...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_$17_Gold_%26_$2.48_Silver_Premiums_in_China_ files/shapeimage_29.jpg

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_$17_Gold_%26_$2.48_Silver_Premiums_in_China_ files/shapeimage_30.jpg

“Because they cannot get any traction at all to the downside, the bullion banks and the swap dealers are having to cover into these shallow drawdowns in price. They simply don’t have a choice as a very powerful force is standing in the way of further downside action.

The physical buying by the Chinese and other Asian participants is forcing the bullion banks and swap dealers to come in and cover their short positions prematurely. All I can tell you is that as long as those big buyers are coming in from Asia, the bears are in trouble.

There is something else at work here and that is the price action in the mining shares. Normally, in the past when there is a move down like we have seen recently, there is a washout in the mining shares, they would literally implode to the downside. Now, even when the gold price is attacked by the bears, the mining shares hold firm. Today the HUI gold bugs index actually closed within striking distance of the all-time highs.

Look at Newmont, this is a stock that has gone almost straight up for the last month. Newmont announced that if the gold price stayed above $1,700, they were going to increase their dividend. Well, that’s good news if you own Newmont, but it’s horrific news if you have been shorting Newmont.

As you know, Eric, these hedge funds have been playing that ratio spread trade where they have been buying paper gold and selling the mining shares. As we’ve been warning, that ratio trade is beginning to blow up on them as the mining shares are increasing their dividends.

The bottom line is the mining shares are advancing, which is one more thing making it that much more difficult for the commercials to break the gold price.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Dan_Norcini_-_Huge_%2417_Gold_%26_%242.48_Silver_Premiums_in_Ch ina.html

mamboni

21st September 2011, 06:32 PM

Stephen Leeb - China Gold Consumption Going Exponential

Stephen Leeb continues:

“Do you really want to buy the euro when you have Greece, which is spending like a drunken sailor, no. You want something that is going to be around for as long as you’ve been around, and the only currency that has been around for as long as the Chinese have been around is gold and silver.

Right now my guess is Chinese consumption of gold has been exponential. China and India will take off of the market 1,000 tons a piece this year. That’s about all of the gold in the world that we are going to produce this year. What that means is any additional gold that you want, you’re going to have to buy it from somebody who already has it. I don’t think anyone is really going to want to sell it.

And when it comes to silver, the Chinese are going to be in the market for tons and tons and tons of silver. It’s no accident that silver is near $40, even though it has come down from $50 and you know what, Eric, it’s going to go through $50. Silver is going to go through $100 and people are going to say, ‘My gosh, silver is no longer a double digit commodity.’ Who knows how high it will go because it is vital for China’s industrialization and solar energy needs and it is also money....

“I hate to say this, I really hate to say it, but I think every family, every single investor in this world has to own precious metals and they should probably be the largest percentage weighting in their portfolio. I’m not talking 100%, but I am saying 20%, 30%, 40%, whatever you’re comfortable with.

One thing that is off the topic of gold, but convinces me that something is amiss in this world, we’re sitting here in the US with more than 9% unemployment. Participation rates in the labor force close to all-time lows or certainly post World War II lows.

Do I have to say what a mess Europe is with Greece collapsing, they are a certain default. Portugal and Spain are having problems, Italy was downgraded. Yet despite this, every critical commodity I can think of, even copper, which has been brutally hit, from copper, to silver, to gold, to oil, they are all in uptrends.

For oil, which is probably the biggest commodity in the world, Brent crude oil has been above $100 for a record number of days. Now go back to 2008, who would believe that? The entire Western world could not muster any growth at all in 2011, yet oil prices will have the highest average price ever this year.

So when you see commodities sustaining this massive uptrend, despite all of this turmoil and unemployment in the developed world, there is something wrong here. So in that environment is it so surprising that gold is so strongly bid?”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/21_Stephen_Leeb_-_China_Gold_Consumption_Going_Exponential.html

Serpo

23rd January 2012, 04:11 PM

Tuesday, January 17, 2012
HAS GOLD'S D-WAVE BOTTOMED?
It seems like most analysts, and gold bugs are now assuming that the reversal on December 29 marked the bottom of golds D-Wave decline. It's certainly possible that we saw a bottom two weeks ago but it's still too early to make that assumption. Gold, and most assets are about to be severely tested. How gold handles that test will be a big clue as to whether or not the correction is over.

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2012/01/has-golds-d-wave-bottomed.html

What many analysts are overlooking is the impending daily and intermediate cycle correction that is coming due in the stock market. When the stock market moves down into a cycle low, especially an intermediate cycle low, it generates a tremendous amount of selling pressure. Invariably that selling pressure bleeds into virtually every other asset class, even gold, as you can see in the chart below. Over the last two years there were only two daily cycle corrections in the stock market where gold was unaffected (I've marked them with green arrows).

The stock market is now in the timing band for a move down into a daily cycle low. As you can see in the chart below those tend to occur almost like clockwork about every 35 to 40 days. As of Friday the stock market was on day 33. On top of that we have a larger intermediate degree cycle that should bottom sometime in March/April. The selling pressure generated at an intermediate bottom is much more intense than a mere daily cycle low. That means sometime around the middle of March or early April things are going to be looking pretty bleak. My best guess is at that time interest rates will be spiking in France and maybe the UK (along with all of the other countries that are already having debt issues).

It's late enough in the daily cycle that there is a good chance the market began that move down into its daily cycle bottom on Friday, despite recovering most of the sell off before the close. I say that because we have a coil pattern playing out in the stock market.

Contrary to what most people believe, the initial break out of a volatility coil is usually a false move that is soon followed by a much more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction. In our case the volatility coil broke to the upside and by Friday it was already trying to reverse. Once the stock market moves back through the coil zone it would be very unlikely to recover those levels until after the next intermediate degree bottom, which like I pointed out isn't due until March/April.

Sometime in the next 4-8 days we should see the stock market break its cycle trend line. It's very rare for a move down into a daily cycle low not to break the cycle trend line. So for our purposes I think we can probably assume that it will.

If the stock market just retraces 50% of the daily cycle advance (assuming 1297 is the top) then we should see a pretty hefty sell off in the next week or two.

That kind of selling pressure will almost certainly have some affect on gold. If the D-Wave is still in progress it's going to have a sharp affect on gold, probably forcing gold back below the $1523 December bottom. How gold handles the stock market moving down into its daily cycle low will give us a big clue as to whether the D-Wave has bottomed or not.

And even stiffer test is going to occur as the stock market moves down into its intermediate bottom in March/April. If gold can't hold above $1523 as stocks move into a daily cycle low then it is going to get driven much lower during the intense selling pressure that will be generated when stocks move down into a larger degree intermediate bottom.

A couple of things to keep in mind.

The last C-wave was the greatest in both magnitude and duration of the entire secular bull market. Is it possible that a 2 1/2 year, 100%+ rally can be corrected with only a 38% retracement in four short months?

There is also the problem with the last intermediate cycle in gold running very short at only 13 weeks (normal duration is about 20-25 weeks). More often than not a short cycle is followed by a long cycle that evens out the next larger cycle. In this case the next larger cycle would be the yearly cycle.

If December 29th did mark an intermediate bottom then we would've had two intermediate cycles of only 13 weeks each. A short cycle followed by another short cycle is a pretty rare occurrence. In this case exceptionally so because the yearly cycle low isn't do until February/March. If I take into account nothing else I would have to assume that gold still has about 5 to 6 more weeks before the final D-Wave and yearly cycle low are formed.

That doesn't mean that gold has to drop a considerable distance below $1523. If it does turn out that gold continues lower into a more normal intermediate timing band I doubt that gold would move below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is at about $1400. That also corresponds with the extensive consolidation zone in the summer of 2010.

One other thing to consider is the powerful correlation of a stronger dollar whenever the stock market moves down into a cycle low. We should continue to see the dollar spike higher over the next couple of weeks as the stock market drops down into its daily cycle trough, followed by a much more powerful rise during the intermediate degree decline due later in the spring. As you can see in the chart below gold has had little ability to resist a rising dollar.

So unless you think that the stock market will never drop down into a cycle low again, or that the market and the dollar will drop simultaneously (very unlikely), then gold is going to be severely tested as the dollar spikes sharply higher during the next few weeks and months as the stock market works its way down into first, a daily cycle low, and then a much more serious intermediate degree correction.

Right now investors need to be on the sidelines while we wait to see how gold handles the stock market's move down into its daily cycle low. If gold can hold above $1523 while the stock market suffers what is likely to be a rather sharp correction then the odds will improve dramatically that the D-Wave did in fact bottom in December.

If however gold follows the stock market down and breaches that $1523 pivot then the odds are very high that the D-Wave is still in progress and will not bottom until late February/mid-March.

Serpo

23rd January 2012, 05:41 PM

When Will Silver Reach a New High?

http://www.silverseek.com/article/when-will-silver-reach-new-high

Andrey Dashkov
| January 23, 2012 - 2:21pm
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Casey Research (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/robbed?ppref=GSK433ED0112C)
In last week's Metals, Mining, and Money (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/gold-will-make-new-high-date#section0) from Casey Research, Jeff Clark estimated that given the magnitude of the correction that started last September, it may take until May 2012 for gold to reach a new high. Let's take a look at how long it may take for silver to rebound.
It's a commonly known fact that silver is more volatile than gold. Already in this decade, silver has risen by a factor of 12 from its ten-year low ($48.70 vs. $4.07), while gold has seen about a sevenfold climb ($255.95 vs. $1,895).
This volatility – as you'll see in a minute – holds for corrections as well. On average, silver's retreats have been deeper and longer than gold's. The three big gold corrections we looked at last week averaged 22.8%. Take a look at the three biggest for silver, along with how long it's taken to recover and establish new highs.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/sites/default/files/SilverCorrectionsinthePastDecade.png
The three biggest silver corrections in the current bull market average to 42.1%.
Our recent correction is the second biggest on record since 2001, but what really makes it stand out is the duration. The 2004 and 2006 declines took only five and four weeks respectively to reach their low points. And it was 31 weeks after the crash of 2008 that silver bottomed. Our current decline, measured from the peak reached on April 28, 2011 to its December 29, 2011 low, spans 35 weeks… quite the determined downtrend.
It also takes silver longer to recover than gold: gold's three biggest corrections required an average of 57 weeks and 6 days to regain their old highs, while it's taken silver's three biggest falls an average of 98 weeks and 4 days to catch up.
So how long will it take to recover from the 2011 slump? We don't know the future, of course, but the current correction is close to the average of the three in the chart, so let's apply the average recovery time to our current situation. The average 42.1% correction took 98 weeks and 4 days to recover; using the same ratio, a 46.3% correction would take 108 weeks and 3 days. Counting from the previous peak of April 28, 2011, we wouldn't break the $48.70 high until May 26, 2013 (based on London PM Fix prices).
It shouldn't come as a surprise that silver will take longer to return to its old high than what we found with gold in last week's article. Why? Half of silver's use is industrial, so a weak economy can drag down its demand. We certainly saw that in 2008.
And an exact date is pure conjecture, of course, and ignores fundamental factors that directly influence the price. 2011 is not 2008. In fact, we've already seen an interesting shift in investment activity in both gold and silver markets. The Silver Institute pointed out in a recent market report that "investor activity" was the biggest contributing factor to both last April's rally as well as September's selloff. Meanwhile, demand for physical metal has not only held firm but was projected by GFMS to reach a new record high in 2011.
Investment demand is rooted in the metal's monetary characteristics. It's not a stretch to say that we expect silver to regain its currency appeal soon, given the amount of worldwide fiat currency destruction. This will be perhaps the strongest catalyst for prices going forward. We wouldn't want to be without any silver.
If there's anything that sticks out from this bird's-eye view of the past ten years of data, it's that corrections are normal. And just as obvious is the fact that corrections end.
As with gold, the silver bull market is far from over, regardless of any weakness we may see in the near term. Don't be the impatient investor who gives up too early. And trying to time the market for a short-term profit shouldn't be the strategy in the midst of a long-term bull market. Instead, keep silver's fundamentals in mind: its industrial uses are growing and, like gold, silver is money.
That said, we believe that the window for buying silver at $30 won't be open for too long. The profit you someday realize from silver will be made buying now, when the price is low.

Serpo

23rd February 2012, 01:55 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6FmO3uUIxTM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6FmO3uUIxTM

Serpo

23rd February 2012, 08:04 PM

http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/

trader Dan Norcini

Serpo

25th February 2012, 02:37 PM

Please Read This Extremely Important Post

Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 3:57 pm
I hope you're ready. Everything that has transpired since May in silver and September in gold has led us to this moment. The next five to seven trading days will tell us everything. Either the metals will win their individual Battles Royale or they won't. If they win, price will accelerate to the upside. If they fail, the metals will likely settle into another sideways consolidation that lasts well into spring. I, for one, can't wait to find out!
So, let's get started. First, in case you missed it, here's a re-print of a comment I posted yesterday afternoon about the continuing increase of open interest in the metals:
"For yesterday, gold rose $15 and the April12 contract rose by 6,500 contracts to 264,250. Here's something interesting: The June12 OI fell by 1800 to 62,263. Hmmm. Total OI rose by over 4000 to 470,255.
You'll recall that yesterday was a big day for silver and also the day that the March options expired. First day notice is just 4 days away but March12 OI fell by just 3,600 contracts to 21,393. The May12 picked up a lot of rollovers and new money and grew by nearly 8,000 contracts to 49,471, a 20% increase in one day! Total silver OI is now 115,874 and that level is the highest its been since August of last year."
A short time later, I posted this comment, right after this week's CoT was released:
"Remember that massive OI jump during the rally on Tuesday? It was +17,000 contracts Tuesday alone and for the reporting period, the total OI rose a massive 25,000.
Well, we just found out how. Total spec long grew by 14,000 but the Cartel net short grew by 20,000! They are about to drop the hammer or get their nuts squeezed off.
Considering that OI has expanded by over 14,000 contracts in the two sessions since, you can imagine that the spec net long has continued to increase while The Cartel net short has done the same.
Silver, too. OI rose by 6000 contracts as the EE net short rose by 1900 and spec longs rose by 2100.
At first glance, this all just confirms that the stage for The Battle Royale has been set. We are up against it technically and the CoT shows that The Cartels are getting up against it from a net short perspective. Next week promises to be wild. Get ready."
Before we get to the charts and discuss the technical importance of this upcoming week, let's dive into that CoT a bit and look at some history for perspective. First, gold.
The CoT does indeed show a massive expansion of spec longs. 14,000 contracts! That's a lot of new money. It also shows that The Cartel supplied the new paper to those spec longs as The Cartel added 20,000 new shorts. The question is, as always, why do The Forces of Darkness do this? Are they:

Flooding the market with fresh, unbacked paper gold because they are trying to cap price, suck in weak-handed longs and preparing for a massive raid through which they will profit? OR
Is the bullion bank cartel simply performing their duty as a market maker? The specs demanded 14,000 contracts this week. Without a brand new, unbacked Cartel short on the other side of the trade, price would have had to have risen to the point where a current long was ready to sell. What would that price have be to in order to pair 14,000 contracts?

Have the bullion banks profited for years by naked shorting the PM "markets" and then initiating waterfall declines into which they can cover and profit. ABSOLUTELY! Is that what they're doing here. I don't think so. As I've repeatedly stated, I believe that The Cartels were completely freaked out and frightened by the events of 2011 and they have spent the last 10 months manipulating PM prices in an attempt to minimize and/or extricate themselves from their perennial short positions. What they didn't expect was $2T in fresh global liquidity in the past 90 days. As I laid out yesterday, everything is going higher, just like during overt QE2. Throw $2T around and it spills everywhere. Crude, gold, beans, cattle, copper...everywhere! The race higher is unfolding so quickly that The Cartels have been left with no other choice but to maintain their roles as market maker. Like the Specialists of old on the NYSE, The Cartels must take the "offer" side of the trade when things get disorderly to the upside, just like they must supply a bid when things are disorderly to the downside. (Though, during coordinated raids, The Cartels have obviously been reluctant to aggressively supply that bid.)
So, here we are. $2T with more to come are flooding the markets with liquidity and The Cartels are getting painted into the same corner they found themselves in last year. What will they do? Attack, of course! That's what they have always done and so you can imagine that an attack will be their first course of action here, too. But can they? Seriously...can they? Take a moment and consider the global investment landscape at this exact moment. Even if you had unlimited funds, would you want to continue building a huge net short position in the metals right now? I don't think so. And you'd have to greatly increase your short position to initiate an attack. No...I don't think they're going to attack, at least not in the massive, coordinated style to which we've grown accustomed.
Their only real option is to attempt to continue "managing" the demand. This means they will continue to create paper when demand is heavy and they will attempt to cover some shorts on every selloff. In an environment like that, you'd expect a steady, increasing, predictable price channel where demand remains constant and forces price higher within a channel of higher highs (demand surges) and higher lows (Cartel covering into selloffs). Hmmm. Do you think the environment I just described would look anything like these charts once you plotted all of the price action graphically?
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25goldd1.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25goldd1.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25silvd.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25silvd.jpg)
So, how long can these price trends continue? As discussed in yesterday's post, from a fundamental standpoint the firehose of liquidity that is currently flooding the global markets shows no sign of slowing. The question then becomes, how long can The Gold and Silver Bullion Banking Cartels continue to provide the unbacked paper metal necessary to manage the ascent of price? Are they already stretched to the limit like they were last April in silver and last September in gold? If so, we can expect imminent attacks and margin hikes. For answers, let's consult some past CoT reports to see if we can gain some perspective. (For simplicity's sake, I'll start with the gross numbers.)
SPEC LONG 2/22/11 4/5/11 8/2/11 9/6/11 10/4/11 2/21/12
Silver 50,937 48,890 38,265 37,185 23,859 34,819
Gold 246,967 259,792 291,974 248,457 180,635 214,343
As you can plainly see, spec long positions in both gold and silver are still well below their peak levels in April and September, respectively. Additionally, though up considerably from the lows of Q4 2011, these markets are not yet "overbought", at least terms of market participation and liquidity. Now, let's look at The Cartel shorts.
BANK SHORT 2/22/11 4/5/11 8/2/11 9/6/11 10/4/11 2/21/12
Silver 89,728 89,827 75,029 77,869 58,807 70,923
Gold 389,757 415,992 442,648 401,815 345,040 375,306
Just as plainly, from a gross perspective, Cartel shorts are nowhere near the levels they were when silver and gold were making their respective highs last year. To me, this indicates that The Cartels have plenty of "ammo" still available from a paper supply standpoint. But, we have to look at the net numbers, too:
BANK NET (short-long) 2/22/11 4/5/11 8/2/11 9/6/11 10/4/11 2/21/12
Silver 57,793 56,414 44,588 47,216 18,923 39,188
Gold 234,804 258,665 287,634 227,714 164,751 229,302
As you probably expected, the net short position also shows that The Cartels have plenty of room to grow here as they are nowhere near the extreme levels attained at the price peaks last year. Other things to note from this data:

From 2/22/11 to 4/5/11, silver rose from roughly $33 to $40 but the large spec long and Cartel net short positions barely budged. Why? The small specs drove the market as their net long position rose from 18,000 to 54,000. That's a triple of the small spec net long in 6 weeks.
But it wasn't the specs that caused the panic, it was the EE. From 4/5/11 to 4/26/11, price rose from $40 to $48 but the large and small spec net position were both declining. However, over those three weeks, the EE net short position contracted by an amazing 14,000 contracts! The EE panicked, pure and simple.
At that point, The CME stepped in and raised margins 5 times in 9 days
From 8/2/11 to 9/6/11, gold rose from roughly $1650 to $1900. Though the media and the know-nothing paid disinformation agents of The Cartel would have you believe that this was a speculative "bubble", the numbers tell a much different story. Over this time period, the large spec net long position declined by almost 25% from 247,175 to 184,371 and the small spec net long only increased by an insignificant 3,000 contracts, rising from 40,459 to 43,343.
Again, this "panic" was caused by a cartel, The Gold Cartel. From 8/2/11 to 9/6/11, price rose $250 as the net short position of The Gold Cartel declined by a whopping 60,000 contracts, falling from 287,634 to 227,714. What happened to instigate this panic? The S&P downgrade of U.S. debt on 8/5/11.
At that point, central bank intervention drove gold lower in the wee hours of 9/6/11 and the raid was on. The CME also conspired to raise margins in gold, too, thereby increasing the selling pressure.

All that history notwithstanding, it's clear to me that we are still in the early stages of this rally. With this history as our guide, PM prices will continue to ascend in two legs. This first leg is the ongoing expansion of large and small spec net long positions. These numbers will probably continue to grow until they begin to reach the levels attained in April and September of last year. The second leg will be another Cartel panic leg where prices rapidly surge to the upside. Since I think we are still in the middle stages of Leg #1 and, since global liquidity should only continue to surge, I just don't see a huge risk of a coordinated C/C/C smashdown at the current time.
That said, we can't be complacent, either. The charts are at a very significant juncture and silver lease rates are scary-low so a raid, particularly in silver, cannot be ruled out. Ignore the silver lease rate chart below at your peril. I don't think it's a direct indicator of an impending raid but even Stevie Wonder can see the obvious correlation between the last two forays into deeply negative territory and steep price selloffs.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25lease.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25lease.jpg)
And now here are your charts. As you can see, we are now at the Battle Royale...the points at which gold and silver will either be forced to reverse or they will overcome this last line of resistance and charge higher. My point in dissecting all of the CoT data was to help you see why I feel that the Battles Royale are going to be won not lost and that, after a likely period of serious volatility over the next 5-7 trading days, gold and silver will begin accelerating higher. First, here are your gold charts showing the same view but from different angles.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25goldd1_0.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25goldd1_0.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25goldd2.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25goldd2.jpg)
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25goldw.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25goldw.jpg)
And here are your silver charts. Note that silver is fighting two technical battles. There is the horizontal resistance from the recovery highs of late October (35.50) and there is also diagonal resistance from the down-sloping trendline connecting the highs of April and September (about $36). When silver is able to move through and close above both of these two lines, it will be off to the races for a while as there won't be much resistance until price reaches $40.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25silvd_0.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25silvd_0.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25silvdw1.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25silvdw1.jpg)
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25silvdw2.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25silvdw2.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_2-25silvd2.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/2-25silvd2.jpg)
In closing, let me just say that I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I did writing it. It's not exactly how I intended to blow my Saturday but I felt it was imperative to get this information to you today so that you could study it before Monday. The next 5-7 trading days are very, very important and if you don't approach them with a plan, you will instead be prone to acting on your emotions and, as we all should know by now, letting your emotions get the best of you is about the only way you will lose fiat money trading gold and silver in this remarkable, continuing bull market.
Keep the faith. Be patient. Have courage. Believe in yourself. Prepare accordingly.
TF

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3441/please-read-extremely-important-post

jbeck57143

27th February 2012, 10:58 AM

Does this mean that between $33.50 and $34.50 is the lowest silver is likely to go before continuing to go up (and that's only if there's a raid)?

Serpo

28th February 2012, 02:43 AM

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_1.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_2.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_3.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_4.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_5.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_6.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/stroke_7.png

With gold near $1,770 and silver near $35.50, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. Turk told King World News the fact that silver is not pulling back is an indication of how strong that market is right now. Here is what Turk had to say about the situation: “This is a great start to the week for the precious metals, Eric. We need to see this kind of strength to make sure both gold and silver follow through in the next few trading days to confirm the big gains from last week where gold climbed 2.9%, while silver soared 6.4%. It is remarkable to see both metals hold their gains with no profit taking. Clearly, traders see something big is about to happen, and so do I.”

“In this regard, I have mentioned several times my expectation that once resistance at $35 is taken out, silver will climb to $68-$70 in 2 to 3 months. I still expect that outcome, but of course, only time will tell. I thought it might be tough going for silver in the $35-$36 area, but maybe not based on the strength we are seeing today.

But regardless, Eric, I expect the silver price will begin to accelerate to the upside once $36 is hurdled. In many ways silver is positioned today like it was back in the summer of 2010. Long-time KWN listeners will remember the events from back then and my bullish views about silver. I feel the same way today.”

When asked about gold, Turk responded, “We spoke in the last blog about the relationship between oil and gold, which was up 2.9% last week. Oil jumped a remarkable 6.3%. With all the money printing going on in central banks around the world, not to even mention the growing tensions in the Middle East, oil looks ready to test its record highs some time this year....

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er_files/shapeimage_23.jpg

“So KWN readers have to remember that right now so goes oil, so goes gold. It is also quite possible that gold will outperform oil by the end of the year. But the bottom line is the wind is at the back of the bulls in both the gold and oil markets.

I follow this like you do, Eric, on a daily basis, but I look at it differently. I look at the price of crude oil in terms of gold and since the beginning of 2012 gold has been outperforming crude oil. This relationship between oil and gold goes back decades. Today an ounce of gold buys basically the same amount of crude oil it did 60 years ago.

But you do get some fluctuations in this relationship and right now I expect the purchasing power of gold to increase. What I am saying is that an ounce of gold at the end of the year will buy more oil than it does today.

I am a firm believer in letting the market tell its own story, Eric. The market does this with the movement in prices. Then, if we watch closely, we can see important trends. By jumping on those trends and riding them, you position yourself in harmony with what the market is telling you, which is important.

You always want to be in harmony with the major trend in prices. As they say time and again, never fight the market. So here's the point I am making, Eric. Events so far this year have been extraordinary. The markets are signaling it. In reality, events are spinning out of control.

Despite this new bailout scheme being foisted on Greece, the situation there continues to spiral out of control, which is one of the factors causing confidence in the safety of European banks to continue eroding.

Surprisingly, over the weekend, the Telegraph in London reported comments by George Osborne, the British Chancellor, who said, ‘The British Government has run out of money because all the money was spent in the good years.’ Finally, a political leader came out and said what everyone has been ignoring. While I applaud Osborne for telling the truth, the frightening reality and what everyone has been ignoring is governments around the world are broke.”

This is why it is so important to be outside of the banking system by having a portion of your assets in physical gold and silver. Governments are broke and much of the banking system is insolvent.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Turk_-_Something_Big_is_About_to_Happen_in_Gold_%26_Silv er.html

Serpo

28th February 2012, 02:44 AM

Does this mean that between $33.50 and $34.50 is the lowest silver is likely to go before continuing to go up (and that's only if there's a raid)?

Predicting price movements in silver from charts is difficult but the turd gives it a go and yes that is what he means,going by the shaded in area.

Serpo

28th February 2012, 03:07 AM

http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/png_images/gold-oil_ratio_30yrs.png

Serpo

28th February 2012, 03:09 AM

http://media.resourceinvestor.com/resourceinvestor/historical/News/2011/2/PublishingImages/20110224-Gold-Oil.jpg (http://media.resourceinvestor.com/resourceinvestor/historical/News/2011/2/PublishingImages/20110224-Gold-Oil.jpg)

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2011/02/25/how-to-use-the-goldcrude-oil-ratio

Serpo

28th February 2012, 03:20 AM

http://dailyreckoning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/5/files/2011/07/DRUS07-21-11-1.png

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-gold-oil-ratio-and-other-reasons-gold-is-still-a-buy/

Serpo

28th February 2012, 03:36 AM

“I think scarcity in oil is a dramatic tailwind for gold. Politicians will inflate. They don’t want oil to bring down the economy like it did in 2008. Remember, this inflation will take place with commodity prices already high. So this will create significant inflation.

Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News that gold is already the de facto reserve currency in the world. Leeb also said oil is headed much higher and soon the Chinese will look to make a move in the silver market. Leeb is Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management. Here is what he had to say: “I am not surprised there are no significant pullbacks in gold. I think it’s essential that individuals own gold here. The gold market definitely wants to power ahead on a short-term basis. I don’t think you can separate oil, gold and copper from one another.”
This means higher gold and silver. Gold at $3,000 by the end of the year, easy. Silver $60, $70, easy. What else do you buy? What currency do you buy? Do you buy the euro or the dollar when we are inflating? You can’t buy the Chinese yuan because it’s not freely traded.

Do you buy the yen with the Japanese pumping money into their economy? There are no other answers. Gold right now is the de facto reserve currency in the world....

Governments from China to India, to most all governments, except those in the Western world, want to assure they have enough gold on hand. It’s just that simple.”

When asked about the move in oil, Leeb replied, “We’re sitting here in this country saying fracking is a solution. Fracking is no solution. Fracking buys us maybe a year or a year and a half. The amount of reserves we have in these shale deposits are smaller than we had at Prudhoe Bay. They are also much harder to cultivate.

If you look at the production profile of the US over the past 40 years, you see a little blip associated with Prudhoe Bay. It barely even makes a dent. Even with Iran still exporting their 2.2 million barrels per day, the OECD right now is at sixteen year lows.

Now some of that is because Saudi Arabia doesn’t have it. There is no doubt in my mind that China sees the writing on the wall and they are socking away a lot of this oil.

Right now this country is lost. What we are likely to see here in the US is the Obama administration, politics being what it is, will probably release oil from the strategic reserve. We have already heard a little bit of talk about this. This, in my mind, is as dumb as it possibly can be.

The reserve should only be used if there is armed conflict with Iran and subsequent turmoil in Saudi Arabia. Then you really need that oil. This oil should not be used to get somebody elected. Improper usage of this oil would be a terrible mistake.

Oil, left to its own devices, without any talk of the strategic reserve, could go anywhere on the upside. Oil could easily go up to $130, $140, $150. If the Saudi oil fields are shut down temporarily, there goes 9 1/2 million barrels per day. How do we make that up?

If we do see oil dip because of a release from the strategic oil reserve, buy it. Buy oil and buy gold on that kind of news because it is so short-sighted. If we release from the reserve do you know who will be buying it? China. We will be giving a gift to China.”

Leeb also added: “China is also going to increase their consumption of copper. China’s copper consumption has been growing at about 3% to 4% per year. It should grow 6% to 7% per year over the next five to ten years. It’s not about economic growth in China. What China is doing is spending massive amounts of money on smart grids and alternative energies.

I also believe the Chinese are going to start accumulating massive amounts of silver again. They will stockpile silver the same way they are aggressors in the copper market. The other plus for silver is the ‘monetary’ plus. More and more investors are beginning to recognize silver, once again, as a monetary metal.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/27_Leeb_-_What_to_Look_for_Next_in_Gold%2C_Silver_Oil_%26_C opper.html

Serpo

28th February 2012, 01:58 PM

http://goldprice.org/charts/gold_3d_b_silver.png?0.8645775958733869

Serpo

7th March 2012, 11:38 PM

London Trader - Massive Physical Silver Orders Filled Near $33

March 8, 2012

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_27.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_27_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_27_link_1.png
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/droppedImage.jpg (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Archive.html)
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_28.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_28_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_28_link_1.png
The London Trader continues:

“The Chinese are doing the exact same thing in the silver market that they are doing in the gold market, massive accumulation on dips. It is also important to note that the local traders in silver are short and nervous. Everyone is short silver and so that market can move violently higher when it turns.

When silver reverses, it will be the one that leads the market higher. Also, the commercials have been covering in silver the same way they have been in gold....

Continue reading the London Trader interview below...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_29.jpg

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33_fi les/shapeimage_30.jpg

“The physical silver orders that were just filled have been waiting since February 16th. Those orders near the $33 level were filled in huge size on Tuesday. These long-term accumulators are buying every dip. There were some fills at $34, but some very large orders were filled near $33.

As long as we stay under $34, there is going to be constant accumulation. What does it matter if you buy silver at $32 or $38, when it is going to go multiples higher from these levels? The Chinese know this and that is why they are accumulating in size.

What is happening here is essentially criminal, but the smart money is capitalizing on it by accumulating. They take advantage of the manipulation. Remember, a lot of this is spot indexing that will be converted to physical over the next few days.

These guys (bullion banks) are so naked short and the last thing they need is to have physical disappear at this time. This is the ammunition they have to drive the market lower and they don’t have very much ammunition.

Even in the virtual market they are running out of sellers they can cover into. There simply aren’t enough weak hands for them to cover in size and as I said, the last thing they need is for physical to be disappearing at these levels.

The real (physical) market is taking over now and the virtual (paper) market will not be as important going forward as the price of silver begins to rise again.”

Serpo

9th March 2012, 09:41 PM

NEW EW SILVER DISCOVERY
http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
Alf Field
http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
I have received numerous emails asking about silver. This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct. As I own some silver bullion and a number of silver mining shares, the question caused me to pause and take a closer look at silver. The reason why I have written very little about silver in the past was because the beautiful Elliott Wave (EW) symmetry and predictable relationships visible in gold were not to be found in silver. I first wrote about silver in December 2003 in an article titled "US Dollar Implosion - Part II". The link to this article is at: www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/field120503.html (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/field120503.html). The brief piece on silver was tacked onto the end of that article. In view of its brevity, the 2003 silver piece is reproduced in full below:
SILVER

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/field013112a.png
"In past crises, the wealthy protected themselves by purchasing gold and gold related assets. Ordinary people, by far the greater number, could rarely afford to buy gold. Being far cheaper, they previously had to buy silver. This metal became the poor man's choice as an asset to protect their savings. Silver has so far lagged gold in the early stages of this bull market, but that situation seems about to change."
"Throughout recorded history the average relationship between silver and gold has been 15oz silver to 1oz gold. The ratio at present is a far higher 75:1 ($400/$5.30). This is massively out of line. If gold were to double to $800 per oz, it would not be unreasonable to expect the silver/gold ratio to decline sharply, possibly as low as 40:1. With gold at $800, this would position silver at $20.
Thus a 100% increase in the price of gold could possibly be accompanied by a simultaneous 400% increase (perhaps more) in the price of silver. This offers significant opportunities both in silver bullion and silver mining shares.
The above graph of the price of silver has been borrowed from an excellent recent article by Dan Norcini entitled "A Technical Look at Silver - Update". What is quite clear from the graph is that silver's 22-year bear market down trend has come to an end. As Dan Norcini says, a new bull market in silver has been born. It is difficult to argue against this contention and I have no intention of doing so. A silver price above $6.80 would complete a fabulous head-and-shoulders base formation. With this as a foundation, it would be possible to project a very large rise in the price of silver for the future." - end of the December 2003 quotation.
Silver did reach $20.68 in March 2008 at the same time that gold peaked at $1003. The silver to gold ratio was thus 48.5 in March 2008. The lowest this ratio has reached is about 32, achieved at the end of April 2011 when gold was around $1570 and silver peaked in the $49 area. At that point gold had experienced a 6-fold increase from its bull market starting point of $255 while the silver price rose 12-fold from its bull market starting point of $4 in November 2001.
The quick answer to the question of what the silver price will be when gold gets to $4,500 is to pick your favorite silver/gold ratio and divide it into $4500. The current ratio incidentally is about 51. If you choose the lowest ratio achieved since 2001 of 32 that would produce a silver price of around $140 ($4500 divided by 32).
This is not a satisfactory answer, so I decided to approach the Elliott Wave analysis of silver from a different angle. Instead of working upwards using the analysis of the minor waves, which was the technique used in the gold calculations, what if we worked backwards in silver starting with the larger waves?
Gold and silver tend to move in tandem, not in an exact synchronization, but enough to suggest that the Major waves of both metals should coincide from a time perspective. We know that in gold the Major ONE wave peaked in March 2008 at $1003 and that Major TWO declined to $680 in November 2008.
Silver also had a peak in March 2008 at $20.68 and declined to an important low of $8.77 in November 2008. If we assumed that the peak at $20.68 in March 2008 was the end of Major ONE and the decline to $8.77 the end of Major TWO, how would the various percentages work out? When I did these calculations I was astonished at the relationships and wave counts that emerged.
The chart below is the monthly spot silver price shown in log scale so that the percentage changes are visible. The bull market started in November 2001 at a price of $4.02. From that point to the suggested peak of Major ONE at $20.68 there are five clear waves visible, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The prices at the various turning points are also displayed.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/field013112b.png
The analysis of the suggested Major ONE wave is set out in the body of the chart. The typical impulse wave relationships are immediately apparent. Both corrective waves 2 and 4 are similar (-33.7% and -35.9%). Whenever two corrective waves are similar it is a signal that they are part of the same larger wave structure. On its own, this fact would confirm that the 5 wave move from $4.02 to $20.68 was a complete wave of larger degree.
There is further corroborating evidence. Waves 1 and 5 are similar at +106% and +115%, a usual EW feature. Wave 3 should be the longest wave, and it is at +171%. In addition, if one multiplies the gain in wave 1 of +106% by 1.618 it produces 171.5%, exactly the gain in wave 3. These relationships are evidence that the rise from $4.02 to $20.68 is a completed impulse wave and that we can call it Major ONE.
Having completed this 5 wave up move, the next correction in Major TWO would be expected to be one degree larger than the two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% in Major ONE. As shown on the chart, Major TWO declined from $20.68 to $8.77, a loss of -57.6%. The two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% are close to the Fibonacci 34. The next higher number in the sequence is 55, close to the actual decline of 57.6% in major TWO. Incidentally, if we take the 35.9% decline and multiply it by 1.618, it gives a figure of 58%, very close to the actual decline of 57.6%.
These relationships suggest that silver has completed the same shaped bull market as gold has and that it is at the same stage in its development. Thus silver has probably also completed the first intermediate up wave of Major THREE, in this case from $8.77 to $49.52, a gain of +$40.75 or +464% and has also completed intermediate wave 2 of Major THREE, being the decline from $49.52 to $26.39 or -47%.
How does this decline of -47% measure up in terms of EW relationships? As with gold, where the corrections in Major THREE were shown to be larger than the corrections in Major ONE, the same applies to silver. The corrections in Major ONE shown in the chart above were close to -34%. If we multiply 34% by another Fibonacci relationship of 1.382 we get 47%!
This is mind-blowing stuff for an analyst who did not believe that EW applied to silver!
We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.
Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).
The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.
A word of caution is appropriate at this stage. All EW studies are based on probabilities. While the wave counts may provide a high degree of confidence in the forecasts, one cannot be 100% certain of any forecast. It is necessary to have a point at which it is obvious that the forecasts are wrong. In the case of this silver study, the line in the sand is at $26.00. If the silver price drops below $26.00 the odds are that the above calculations will not work out.
A further word of caution: silver is not for the faint hearted. Silver is considerably more volatile than gold and the corrections are much larger. Silver corrections can and do happen quickly. They are emotionally gut-wrenching and it is easy to get shaken out of one's position near the bottom of a large correction.

Alf Field
1 February 2012

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field013112.html

Serpo

29th March 2012, 10:34 AM

Fractal Analysis: 2012 Silver to $70++

Goldrunner
| March 29, 2012 - 8:58am
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Around this point in the fractal cycle in the late 70’s, Gold busted out of its channel to rise sharply higher, along with Silver. Silver’s channel top will lie up around $68 to $70 over the coming months which we believe will be reached in 2012. The next higher angled resistance bands for Silver run from $112 to $115, and then up at the $123 area. By the end of the Silver Bull, we expect to see Silver reach $500+.
Dollar Devaluation Drives The Fractal Relationships
The fractal relationships to the late 70’s are driven by the aggressive Dollar Devaluation in both periods, with the current period one Elliott Wave Degree higher.Both periods present as pure 5th wave parabolas in Dollar Devaluation, and thus, in the Gold and Silver Charts.We are seeing a price expansion in the current Vth wave versus the 5th wave of III in the late 70’s for Gold and for Silver.
We have noted for years that the Fed “owns” the psychology of the markets.The Fed is in the process of converting the Deflationary K-Winter into a period of Stagflation.“Stag” refers to the very sluggish economy, and “flation” refers to rising inflation created by the aggressive Dollar Devaluation.
The Fed and its banks blew out the loan multiplier system for providing new Dollars directly into the economy in 2007 and 2008.The 2nd round of Dollar Inflation is via the Fed printing new Dollars to buy US Government debt- pure debt monetization and default on debt.Thus, they are devaluing the huge load of debt by devaluing the US Dollar.
The Fed “shows inflation when it wants” and it “shows deflation when it wants.”It does so by suggesting that it will, or will not be printing Dollars, the liquidity that drives the markets.All of this jawboning is a joke since the Fed has no choice but to print Dollars at an accelerating rate yet, the markets and investors run a constant bi-polar gauntlet by taking the Fed at their “word.”
The big trading banks dominate the markets.They do the “bidding of the Fed at key junctures.”This is a process of rotating liquidity into the different asset classes that must be supported in the process of changing the cycle during the 2nd leg of debt monetization.
It is the devaluation of the US Dollar that ultimately creates the price rise in Gold, in Silver, and in the PM Stocks.The only true read on the Dollar Devaluation is through the rise of $Gold so the true devaluation of the Dollar can be hidden from the market at key times.In reality, it is the market that creates the devaluation of the Dollar against Gold creating the Gold Parabola so the psychological whims of the Fed can muddle the psychology of the markets.The Gold parabola rises in fits and momentum runs as the market devaluation of the US Dollar ebbs and flows around the psychological effects of what the Fed says; accompanied by the help the Fed receives from entities trading with the Fed’s words.
The spastic Gold market is also affected by a focus on the Dollar Index that has little to do with Dollar Value once Global Competitive Currency Devaluations start in earnest.
We Can Expect QE to Infinity
As Jim Sinclair says, this is complicated stuff.Per Mr. Sinclair we already have approximately $1.3 trillion that were printed and sent to Europe.The markets have not factored this into the price of Gold, yet.Once it does, we should see Gold rise sharply.Remember that it only took $600 Billion of new QE printing to drive Gold up to $1920 in 2011 as per my forecast back in January and April, 2011 in my article entitled Goldrunner: Gold on track to Reach $1860 to $1,920 by Mid-year (http://www.munknee.com/2011/04/goldrunner-gold-on-track-to-reach-1860-1920-by-mid-year/)(gold reached $1,917.20 in late August, 2011 and $1,923.70 in early September, 2011).
All of the US Debts must be on the US balance sheet before Gold goes completely parabolic, for full devaluation of the Dollar and the debts.This is the essence of the question that a Congressman asked Tim Geithner.Tim delayed until the Congressman tossed out the $20 Trillion and then $50 Trillion numbers.Mr. Geithner responded that the number would make the Congressman “uncomfortable.”GEITHNER IMPEACHED BERNANKE’S COMMENT ON “MAYBE NO MORE QE” WHEN HE BASICALLY ADMITTED WE NEED QE IN SPADES GOING FORWARD.Mr. Geithner confirmed that the number of Dollars that must be printed to cover off-balance sheet items is huge.This covers items like unfunded Social Security, unfunded Federal Pensions, future unemployment claims, and the losses of Fannie and Freddie through the end of 2012.
Unfortunately, investors generally keep looking at the trees on a short-term basis, rather than seeing the forest of Dollar Devaluation.As Jim Sinclair constantly notes, we will see QE to infinity.This means that Gold will go vastly higher than most expect in order to devalue the debt and to balance the US budget.
The current markets are completely managed by the Fed and its henchmen.The complete management is a complicated issue as Jim Sinclair has noted. For instance: the Fed and its helpers recently inhibited Gold and Silver at a time when the Greek debt issues were being worked out.It was the Fed’s helpers who had sold the OTC Derivative “insurance” on all of the failed Greek debt.It appears that they hammered inflation expectations to help the deal from go smoothly; and there were cycle timing issues that were already stretched a bit.In reality, most of the Greek Debt holders were forced to take on a different debt series before “default” was declared for a final few.This gives us “insight” that the time in the cycle is short, due to the necessary quick fix deal.
Mr. Sinclair has discussing how the US Dollar’s days as the World Reserve Currency are numbered.This begs the question of what effect this will have in terms of the Dollar’s “value.”Personally, I think that new Dollar Supply is most important, but freeing up huge numbers of Dollars with its loss of reserve status could be a reason for a sharp rise in US inflation if all of those Dollars head home - and a large number of those Dollars coming home to roost might find themselves “chasing Gold and Silver” which could add to the process of the markets re-valuing Gold and Silver much higher.
We are seeing a “price expansion” in the charts of Gold and Silver in the current period with little evidence of a “cycle time expansion” to go with it, other than the general increase in fractal time warranted at one higher Elliott Wave Degree.
In the late 70’s the top in the Gold Chart came as a momentum high into early 1980 with a lower final high coming later.It is possible that we will not see the momentum high before the final high this time, yet it is probable since the continuing deterioration in the economy demands a fairly quick devaluation of the debt before the economy completely rolls over.

THE SILVER CHARTS
The first chart of Silver is the current log chart where Silver is trading inside the black trend channel.We can see the exaggerated decline into the deflation scare bottom in late 2012.Silver appears to be correcting in a flag formation at this time.The measured target of a flag break-out to the upside would target the $65 to $70 area at the top of the black channel.We have break-outs on the RSI and the MACD with the RSI trying to hold the Bullish 50 mark.The Fed has already printed $1.3 Trillion to go to Europe, with more QE necessary to buy US Debt.As the markets factor the Dollar Devaluation in, we’d expect to see Silver explode upward on a fundamental basis.It only took $600 Billion in 2011 to drive Silver from around $20 up to around $50.Additional QE to buy US debt would suggest about 3 times the 2011 Dollar Devaluation from Dec. of 2011 to the end of 2012.The timing appears to be supported with this being a Presidential election year.
If you would like to have access to my detailed proprietary fractal analyses of what is likely to unfold for Silver, Gold, Copper, the HUI and a large number of specific mining company stocks in the months and years to come, the link to our subscription service at the bottom of the article (only $30/mo.). If you do not want specific information but would just like to keep abreast of my general views on the markets, you can send an email requesting to receive my coming free newsletter Goldrunner’s Fractal Corner. See the bottom of the article for further subscription and newsletter contact information.
The Current Silver Bull Chart

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/3-29gr/image002.jpg (http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/3-29gr/image001.png)
The Late 70’s Fractal Silver Chart
The next chart of Silver is an arithmetic 70’s chart.There was no “deflationary bent” in the late 70’s that caused the steeper retracements we have seen in the current period to create increased volatility in the ever expanding environment of Dollar Devaluation, yet it is obvious that we have not seen the first wave of sharp price expansion in Silver that occurred in the late 70’s.Fractal Cycle timing suggests that it should be directly in front of us, and it appears that the next round of aggressive Dollar Inflation is already underway to fuel that type of move as soon as the market factors the aggressive round of Dollar Devaluation into Gold and Silver.

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/3-29gr/image004.jpg
The Silver Parabola is not a smooth flowing form like the Gold Parabola is (as can be seen in a previous article here (http://www.munknee.com/2012/01/goldrunner-called-1920-gold-high-exactly-now-expects-3000-3500-by-mid-year/)).We can see that the huge price rise in Silver came almost completely toward the tail end of the 70’s Bull.
We are still in a short-term period of potential cycle weakness until options expire for Silver and Gold futures into the end of this week – but the Fractal Cycle suggests that things will heat up soon to see Silver on its way to $70+ in the next up-leg. We have previously laid out our fractal expectations for Gold in 2012 via our article,Goldrunner: Fractal Gold Analysis Says Gold On Way to $3,500 Mid-year (http://www.munknee.com/2012/03/fractal-gold-projection-of-3500-into-mid-year-remains-intact/).
For the moment,
Goldrunner, THURSDAY, 03-29-12

http://www.silverseek.com/article/fractal-analysis-2012-silver-70

Serpo

17th May 2012, 03:41 AM

Manipulated Markets Can’t See the Future

-- Posted Wednesday, 16 May 2012 | Share this article | Source: GoldSeek.com

By David Nichols
Right now we are all in the unfortunate position of being hostage to the dubious forecasting abilities of the Fed and other Central Bankers, as if they are not proactive in putting in place another round of easing, just about every financial market will plunge.
Even though it seems like they've done so much already -- and there is political pressure on them to let up -- once they started down this path then there was no choice but to keep increasing the flow of new currency. This is a big monetary experiment spiraling out of control.
There is little doubt that gold will be much higher into the cycle peak scheduled for mid-2013, but there is cause for concern about a hyper-deflationary episode prior to that run up, similar to the Lehman debacle in late 2008. Of course markets will rally right back when the Fed reacts with a huge liquidity push, but once the chaos starts, the damage will be unpredictable.

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/5-16dn/image001.png
Theoretically the gold market should be able to “look beyond” these sorts of liquidity concerns, with the precognitive forward-looking ability that markets usually possess, because there is little doubt about how central banks will respond -- with a fire hose of freshly-minted dollars, euros, yen, renminbi, and soon enough, even new drachmas.
But it does seem like this Fed-based market environment has brought on a major contraction in the ability of markets to discount the future. Markets are seeing forward only a few weeks into the future, instead of months, or even years ahead, as they have in the past.
My theory is essentially every financial market is currently not experiencing proper price discovery, due to massive manipulation by central banks. This is especially true for bond markets and currencies, and by extension, gold. After all, what is quantitative easing other than the Fed intervening in the bond market to buy bonds? And they are an unnatural buyer. They don’t buy to capture profits or hedge existing positions, as market participants are supposed to, and they aren’t using currency backed by labor and savings – they are, quite literally, using “monopoly money” of their own creation.
Their interventions in bond markets are influencing the price discovery mechanism that functions so well in freely-traded markets, and is therefore contracting the market's ability to properly discount the future.
Because of this we should expect more volatility in the months ahead, as this “short-term syndrome” becomes even more heightened with further Fed interventions into the markets.
It would not be out-of-character in this environment to see a big drop in most markets -- with everybody screaming about deflation -- to be followed by a huge rally, with everybody then screaming about hyper-inflation. Opinions will be changing rapidly, based entirely on what the market is doing, and not based on a coherent view of the future.
This is why the underlying cycle energy, which is especially critical in the gold market, will have such a massive influence into the next 21-month peak.
Over the past month I have undertaken an exhaustive study of this long bull market in gold, to further unravel the structure of its price patterns and timing cycles, with a specific emphasis on studying the timing cycle that has caused a peak in gold every 21 months.

Sometimes when you look in hyper-focus on a subject, the results can be disappointing. But this was decidedly not the case with gold, and I looked at -- quite literally -- every trading day since 1999. This bull market pattern has been highly precise in its timing and structure, and I believe this structure will only become more precise into mid-2013.

I have just put the finishing touches on a lengthy Special Report on the gold cycle into 2013. In this report it became necessary to venture into topics that I have not previously discussed regarding the "how and why" of cycles in both the natural world, and in financial markets.

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/5-16dn/image002.png

These are my own theories that I have been developing and working on over the last 5 years, and they have wide-ranging implications, beyond just financial markets.

It became necessary to introduce the basics of these ideas on why cycles form in just about every facet of life on earth, to frame some important points about the gold cycle into mid-2013.http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1337194415.php

Serpo

17th May 2012, 03:41 AM

Silver Update Hubert Moolman
| Wednesday, August 22nd
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The silver chart has formed a big pennant like that of the gold chart. What this indicates is that the silver price will likely make a massive move soon. Technically, this move can be up or down. Note that this update is from my premium service originally published on 6 August 2012.
Below is a silver chart with the pennant:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-22hm/image002.jpg
The technical and fundamental evidence that I have collected, and look at, tells me that the price is likely to go upward out of this pennant formation.
On the chart above, you can see that the price has actually broken out (upward) of the pennant. We have to give it some time before we can say that it is a valid breakout. Also, I have drawn a blue line, which could become another area of resistance.
If we were to consider a move down, then a first target of $15 and one lower at $5 would come into play, based on the patterns. A price of $5 (and even $15) does not make any economic sense, given the amounts of fiat money currently available.
However, there is a real threat of deflation, currently, and the effect of this has to be considered when looking at the future silver price. In my opinion, we do have a perfect setup for a massive deflation which will destroy a lot of debt-based value.
Stock market values have been driven for years by this debt-based value, and will, therefore, be very badly devalued. Many believe that such a fall in stock market values will take down the silver price. I do not agree, and have given many reasons why.
Here, I would just like to point out that the current threat of deflation is due to the massive debt levels, and the inability to service those debt commitments. You can just look at the example of Spain or Greece.
Silver is a real store of value and that is its most significant function. The current crisis will cause a massive rush to that which can store value that will not be destroyed by the debt-collapse. Silver is just about the opposite of debt.
Previously, I wrote about how this debt-based monetary system has created what I call a “mirror-effect”, whereby, silver (and gold) is pushed down in value, to a similar extent as to which paper assets such as general stocks are pushed up in value. This mirror-effect clearly shows up on the long-term charts of gold, silver and the Dow.
Below, is a long–term silver chart (real and nominal) from 1850 to present (generated at minefund.com):
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-22hm/image004.jpg
I have drawn a vertical red line, approximately where silver was demonetized (1870s). Notice how the real price of silver collapsed after the red line, from about $30, until it bottomed in 1931 at $4.29. It then traded side-ways (from the big-picture view) for many years, until it spiked from about the early 1970s, making a peak in 1980, where after, it bottomed again in 2001.
Technically, the bottom in 2001 was the completion of what would be a remarkable double bottom reversal, with the first bottom being in 1931. After a double bottom formation, there is often a big rally, and that is exactly what happened next. If this pattern continues to follow the pattern of a valid double bottom, it will reach levels that will exceed the 1980 high by at least one multiple, but probably by many more.
The interesting thing about this possible double bottom is the fact that the two bottoms came 70 years apart. This 70 years period also appears on the long-term Dow chart. Below is a Dow chart (from stockcharts.com) from 1900 to present:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-22hm/image006.jpg
On the chart, I have indicated a 70 year period from when the Dow peaked in 1929, to the peak in 1999. The reason for using the 1999 peak instead of the 2007 peak, is the fact that the 1999 peak represents the real peak, since the Dow/Gold ratio peaked in 1999 (like it did in 1929).
Notice the dates of the peaks and how they fit in with that of the bottoms of the real silver price, as well as the similar 70 year periods between. In my opinion, the occurrence of the 70 year period on both charts, in the context as explained above, provides additional evidence of the link between silver’s demonetization (or suppression) and the massive debt bubble of this century – as explained in part 1 of this article.
While the Dow is inflated to the peak in 1929, silver is suppressed to its low in 1931. And again, the Dow is inflated to its peak in 1999, while silver is suppressed to its bottom in 2001.
So, the peaks and troughs, as presented in the above charts, are the manifestation (in visual form) of the debt-based monetary system causing paper and related assets to rise, while suppressing silver. Another way of looking at it is that the debt-based monetary system is fuelling speculation in paper assets by using energy diverted from precious metals.
Silver (like gold) stands in direct opposition to the current monetary system (they are inescapably linked). The fall (and falling) of this system is the rise of silver as money; therefore, massive increases in what silver can buy in real terms.
Looking at a bearish pattern to find critical levels
Below, is 6-year chart of silver, highlighting bearish fractals:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-22hm/image008.jpg
I have highlighted two fractals by indicating 4 similar points on both. Based on this comparison, we could now be at a very critical area. A break-down below the support (about $26), could mean that the current pattern could follow the 2007/2008 pattern, and take price much lower. This is presented not because I believe that price will break lower than the support, but to show why I think we are at a critical level, and why we should be watchfull.
Pattern Previously Covered
Here, is a follow-up on my previous article (http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/silver-price-forecast-dramatic-turnaround-for-silver/) about the similar flag-type formations on the silver chart.Below is a graphic which compares the current pattern on silver (from about the beginning of 2011 to present) to a 2007 pattern:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-22hm/image010.jpg
This comparison is still very much valid; only if price goes lower than $26 could it become invalid. In fact, there is a good chance that price has broken out to the upside.
On both charts, I have suggested how the flag patterns might be similar, by marking similar points, from 1 to 6 (and alternatively from a to h). Based on this comparison, it appears that the silver price might now have found that point 6 or h (at the end of June), and is about to increase significantly.
We could be at very volatile area due to the possible breakout, since this is often the case after a breakout – so be aware! I am of the opinion that silver should make its move higher between now and the end of this month, if this comparison is to be confirmed.
Follow-up on Gold/Silver Ratio
In my last gold update, I covered the Gold/Silver ratio, and explained why I think the Gold/Silver ratio will soon fall straight down. Below is an updated Gold/Silver ratio chart:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-22hm/image012.jpg
On the chart I have indicated a trading channel in which the ratio has been moving for the last five months. It appears now to have finally broken down, out of the channel. This could be a very strong signal that silver and gold prices are about to rise significantly. Again, here we have to watch for a possible retest of that break-down area, before the ratio falls straight down.
Conclusion:
Silver appears to have broken out of the pennant or flag-type formation, and could now finally be setting-up for a massive rise in price. We should, however, be very watchful, due to the fact that we are at a critical area in price and time. There is a big threat of deflation, but, in my opinion, it is this very deflation (brought about by the collapse of the debt bubble) that could be driving silver prices higher.
For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service (http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/premium-service/). I have also recently completed a Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report (http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/silver-fractal-analysis-report/).
Hubert
http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com (http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/)
hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za (hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za)
“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”
SilverSeek.com

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-update-5796

Serpo

22nd August 2012, 02:08 PM

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?63096-Boom-Goes-The-Dynamite-Silver-Pops

Serpo

23rd August 2012, 12:29 AM

http://bmgbullion.com/library_images/x_550/1370.jpg

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=39406

Serpo

23rd August 2012, 12:36 AM

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/22_Large_Entities_Creating_Major_Breakouts_In_Cruc ial_Markets.html

Sparky

23rd August 2012, 08:51 AM

I wonder why the demand nearly tripled from 1954-1964. I realize they were using silver in coins, but that was nothing new. I wonder if it was all the post-WWII increase in money supply that finally got velocity, and required generation of a lot of currency. And that last year in 1964 they minted a prodigious amount of Kennedy halves following his death. But that 10-year spike makes it clear why they knew a shift from silver coinage was inevitable.

On a side-note, we have the same pre-velocity situation going on today. They are flooding the system with fiat, but it has no velocity because so much of it is ending up going toward a re-fill of depleted bank reserves, where it just sits. In principle, they could probably avoid off inflation if they were to stop the money printing now. But there's going to be so much political pressure to keep printing to avoid recession/depression that eventually the new money will all start to have velocity. So their choice will be recession/depression or inflation, and inflation is always easier politically.

Sorry, I wandered there...

beefsteak

23rd August 2012, 09:14 AM

You may find it helpful to study the SILVER E.O. of 1934, the subsequent Silver act of 1946, and the attending reasons why Lyndon Baines started repealing the FUncTION of the 1946 requirement to turn over everything above 500 troy silver ounces, beginning with legislation in 1961.

Make no mistake, the original SILVER confiscation E.O. is STILL on the books and can be re-inacted at any time. Lotsa folks have heard about the gold confiscation. Silver? Not so much.

The Silver Purchase Act of 1934, President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6814, nationalizing the nation’s hoard of privately owned non-monetary silver, and prohibiting private ownership of quantities exceeding 500 troy ounces.

Quite an illuminating article about all of this which totally addresses/answers your question, Sparky, can be found here:
http://www.silvermonthly.com/why-did-silver-coinage-end-in-the-united-states/

All has to do with intrinsic silver values, seinorage on coins, and strategic reserves--millions and millions of ounces-- which started to be liquidated via public auction, shortly thereafter. Said strategic silver reserves, including the famous "CC" silver dollar hoard found in the basement of the CC Mint which was to come along, the GAO blew out to the public by means of very public, full page ads in the WSJ and elsewhere.

beefsteak

Serpo

28th August 2012, 09:16 PM

Gold Silver Ratio Breaks Below 54 to 1- Big Silver Move Just BeginningAugust 28, 2012 By The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/members/the-doc/profile/) 8 Comments (http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-silver-ratio-breaks-below-54-to-1-big-silver-move-just-beginning/#comments)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-silver-ratio-breaks-below-54-to-1-big-silver-move-just-beginning/#more-12646 (http://www.silverdoctors.com/sd-bullion-buy-gold-buy-silver/)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/gold_6_month_silver2.png (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/gold_6_month_silver2.png)For the first time in nearly 6 months the gold/ silver ratio has broken below 54 to 1, currently trading at 53.79 to 1.
As discussed previously, we expect the gold/silver ratio to narrow substantially during this bull run, likely as much as 20 to 1.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/gold_6_month_silver2.png (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/gold_6_month_silver2.png)
The six month uptrend in the g/s ratio has been decidedly broken to the downside.

Serpo

28th August 2012, 09:17 PM

Silver Inventory Update: Brink’s, HSBC Report Massive Silver Deposits Monday

2http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-inventory-update-brinks-hsbc-report-massive-silver-deposits-monday/#more-12672

Serpo

28th August 2012, 09:36 PM

There are only two metals that have been the creation of money from history and the backbone of the financial system .

They try to ignore the fact they have a back bone and of course most if of them dont;D ,so we get the mess we have today.

There is only two metals holding up this whole thing(going back ,gold and silver was money) and if it all collapses then these two metals will still be there to structure a new one(good luck on that one)around.

The economics in the world today are huge and by keeping the price of g/s down they are shooting themselves in the foot as their money becomes backed by nothing.

There is going to not be enough to go round at some stage and they may try all sorts of tricks to get it off people, but in the end there is nothing that can be compared to g/s .

They take it off you and expect you to be happy with a fist full of paper.

The government has lied to us about the inflation rate for ever and has sent everyone into the gutter because of it and their twisted agendas, you have to lie back to them with a clear conscience as it is the least a person can do,when ever you get the chance that is.

Serpo

28th August 2012, 09:39 PM

You may find it helpful to study the SILVER E.O. of 1934, the subsequent Silver act of 1946, and the attending reasons why Lyndon Baines started repealing the FUncTION of the 1946 requirement to turn over everything above 500 troy silver ounces, beginning with legislation in 1961.

Make no mistake, the original SILVER confiscation E.O. is STILL on the books and can be re-inacted at any time. Lotsa folks have heard about the gold confiscation. Silver? Not so much.

Quite an illuminating article about all of this which totally addresses/answers your question, Sparky, can be found here:
http://www.silvermonthly.com/why-did-silver-coinage-end-in-the-united-states/

All has to do with intrinsic silver values, seinorage on coins, and strategic reserves--millions and millions of ounces-- which started to be liquidated via public auction, shortly thereafter. Said strategic silver reserves, including the famous "CC" silver dollar hoard found in the basement of the CC Mint which was to come along, the GAO blew out to the public by means of very public, full page ads in the WSJ and elsewhere.

beefsteak

As frightening as these laws maybe ,they are only that laws passed by some manipulator of financial markets and government,heck look at libor they are still corrupt.

Serpo

29th August 2012, 04:12 AM

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-projection-–-2013-5921 (http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-projection-%E2%80%93-2013-5921)

Silver Price Projection – for 2013

mamboni

29th August 2012, 06:33 AM

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-projection-–-2013-5921 (http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-projection-%E2%80%93-2013-5921)

Silver Price Projection – for 2013

Good article - very novel analysis - lovely conclusion - silver to $50 or more next year.

Serpo

29th August 2012, 10:16 PM

Recent Rally in Silver – A Sign of Strength or a Mere Correction?

Przemyslaw Radomski
| Wednesday, August 29th

In its latest Gold Demand Trends report, the World Gold Council reports that gold buying by the world's Central Banks hit a new record of 157.5 tons, more than double the level of Q2 2011 and accounting for 16% of overall global demand. Among them are the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the central banks of the Philippines, Russia and Ukraine. If the Central Bank buying continues at the current pace this could be a record year for Central Bank buying.
That’s the good news. The bad news is the WGC estimates that global gold demand in Q2 2012 was 990.0 tons, down 7% from the demand for the yellow metal in Q2 2011. The demand in Q2 last year was exceptionally high, they point out. The main reasons for the fall are the reductions in demand for gold in both India and China over the period. In India, investment and jewelry demand has fallen mostly due to the high gold price in rupees as well as worries over a weak start to the monsoon season.
Having discussed gold briefly, let’s now turn to the technical part of our update with the analysis of silver. We will start with the long-term chart (charts courtesy by (http://stockcharts.com/)http://stockcharts.com.)

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-29pr/radomski_august292012_1.gif

In the above chart a significant rally is seen, but it has been stopped by the medium-term resistance line and the 50-week moving average. Silver actually corrected about 38.2% of its 2012 decline (the cup portion of the inverted cup-and-handle pattern). This pattern is still in place.
Silver has shown to often be volatile and a sharp, quick move to the upside can be quickly followed by a period of disappointment. Such was the case nearly a year ago in the final months of 2011 and at the end of February 2012. Silver’s price also moved very close to the 50-week moving average back then as well.
The point is that despite silver’s recent strength and multiple reasons due to which it’s likely to soar in the following years, it remains in a medium-term downtrend. It will remain the case until a breakout is seen.
Let’s now switch perspective to the non-USD one, to further investigate the current situation in the white metal in a different way.

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/8-29pr/radomski_august292012_2.gif

In the chart of silver from the non-USD perspective, prices are right at a resistance line and the RSI level suggests a medium-term overbought situation. The implications are therefore similar to what we discussed above – the medium-term case for silver may become bullish, but so far it hasn’t.
Summing up, a lot has happened in the past several days in the white metal market but not very much has really changed from the medium-term perspective. So silver’s show of strength seen in the above charts is not really a very bullish phenomenon. This is especially true when the overbought RSI levels are considered.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
(http://www.sunshineprofits.com/)www.SunshineProfits.com (http://www.SunshineProfits.com)

http://www.silverseek.com/article/recent-rally-silver-%E2%80%93-sign-strength-or-mere-correction-5956

Serpo

1st September 2012, 04:17 AM

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/silver-breaks-its-downtrend.html
Trader Dan's Market Views (http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/)

Friday, August 31, 2012

Silver Breaks its Downtrend

For nearly the last year and a half, silver has been in a sustained downtrend in price although it has managed to find a floor of support near the $26 level. This week it has finally broken that downtrend. If this metal is going to begin a sustained rally, any setback in price should find buying emerge near the downsloping blue line shown on the chart. Failure to hold this level and particularly now the $30 level, will see the metal fall back into that triangle formation with support then coming in down closer to $28.

Note that the metal is now trading above the 50 week moving average while both shorter term moving averages are now moving higher. The trend is up.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gq12ZI0wmco/UEEht7qNiEI/AAAAAAAABzk/usac3LGKZUE/s320/snapshot-1333.png (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gq12ZI0wmco/UEEht7qNiEI/AAAAAAAABzk/usac3LGKZUE/s1600/snapshot-1333.png)

Serpo

21st November 2012, 02:13 PM

for future reference............

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?65315-Silver-Update-Massive-Silver-Suppression

Serpo

29th December 2012, 05:34 AM

Harvey Organ: Cartel Manipulation of Gold & Silver is the Ultimate Treason, As US Wealth Flows EastDecember 27, 2012 By The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/members/the-doc/profile/) 29 Comments (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-cartel-manipulation-of-gold-silver-is-the-ultimate-treason-as-us-wealth-flows-east/#comments)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Year-End-Sale.jpg (http://sdbullion.com/)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/banker-treason.png (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-cartel-manipulation-of-gold-silver-is-the-ultimate-treason-as-us-wealth-flows-east/)The Doc sat down with Harvey Organ Wednesday for the first of several interviews regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC’s silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery.
Harvey stated that the end game is being played out, and that an Asian group has decided to take on the cartel and drain the physical silver from the COMEX. He states that the bullion banking cartel’s suppression of the gold and silver markets is the ultimate treason against Americans, as 350 years of US wealth is being drained East due to the price suppression of gold and silver.
MUST READ!

2013 Silver Eagles (http://sdbullion.com/shop/silver/2013-silver-american-eagles/) As Low as $2.59 Over Spot at SDBullion (http://sdbullion.com/)!http://sdbullion.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2013-Silver-Eagle.png (http://sdbullion.com/shop/silver/2013-silver-american-eagles/)

The Doc asked Harvey his thoughts on the extraordinary developments in the December delivery month for silver, which has seen the amount of longs standing for delivery actually increase as the month progressed:
That has never happened before! I’ve been watching this- on an active month, usually what happens is the deliveries are the highest in the first 3-4 days in the month, then they go down a bit as there’s usually a few cash settlements.
What happened in December, on December 6th you saw the low point of 12.6 million ounces. All of a sudden it turned around and you saw 13, 14, and now 19.5 million ounces of silver standing for delivery. What really bothers me (and I have been unsuccessfully trying to get an answer from the CFTC) is that every single deposit, withdrawal, and adjustment in the CNT vault is done at three decimals at .000.
The COMEX is a physical market! It’s strictly physical! You should see oddball numbers! I could understand one or two bars adding up to .000, but when I start seeing everything, I start getting suspicious! I have a strange feeling that they’re settling in paper. The owners don’t know it, they think they’re getting the real thing.
What’s actually happened is that there has been a large increase in the number of investors wishing to get their silver out of a registered COMEX vault. They’re asking for silver, but they’re asking that it’s not stored in a COMEX vault, specifically HSBC or JP Morgan. That’s what I’m seeing in silver.
The other thing you should be very mindful of, the open interest on gold has declined, it’s kind of low, and it kind of tells you that many players no longer want to play the rigged game. But it’s not so in silver! OI has remained relatively high at 140,000 or higher constantly the past 2-3 months regardless of price! Certain people have decided to take these guys on, they know exactly what they can take out of the COMEX, and that is exactly what’s going on at the silver front.

The Doc asked Harvey about the US Mint’s 3 week suspension of Silver Eagle sales and whether it indicates a shortage of silver at the mint:
That is a real indication of shortage. If you’ve had a look at the Canadian Maples sales totals. They started in 1985 with 200,000 ounces, and this year they sold 20 million ounces in Canada? My goodness! This means a lot of the Canadian silver is being exported out. The Mint’s making money. So the demand is there, obviously the US Mint just doesn’t have the silver to make them. You can just see it in the demand! The US produces about 40 million ounces of silver. This means that in order for the US to meet demand in all forms they need to acquire silver from Mexico, etc, and then you have the jewelry demand, the medical and pharmaceutical demand, the solar demand. Only 100 million ounces of the total silver supply goes for investment. 900 million ounces goes towards industrial/ medical demand. There are new uses for silver every day!
What these banks have done is they are eliminating the supply of silver. I really think that the ultimate treason is that our gold and silver are leaving our shores and heading East. Eventually we won’t have it- just like rare earths- we won’t have any! That’s simply treason!
Check back tomorrow for part 2 of The Doc’s interview with Harvey Organ, in which Harvey discusses the reason the CFTC has not and cannot release the findings of their 4-year silver probe, Harvey’s view that the manipulation is in the end game and will collapse in 2013, and how the daily CME reports inadvertently reveal a massive shortage of physical silver among the bullion banks.

Check out these similar articles:

Harvey Organ: The Moment London is Out of Silver, the COMEX Will Be Out in a Nano-Second! (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-the-moment-london-is-out-of-silver-the-comex-will-be-out-in-a-nano-second/)
Harvey Organ: Gold Rehypothecation- COMEX, the LBMA, GLD, the Bank of England- IT’S ONE INVENTORY! (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-gold-rehypothecation-comex-the-lbma-gld-the-bank-of-england-its-one-inventory/)
Harvey Organ: JPM Unwinding IRSwaps, Losses ‘COULD BRING DOWN THE WHOLE FINANCIAL SYSTEM’ (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-jpm-unwinding-irswaps-losses-could-bring-down-the-whole-financial-system/)
December Gold Delivery in Jeopardy? CME Declares Force Majeure at Manhattan Gold Depository (http://www.silverdoctors.com/december-gold-delivery-in-jeopardy-cme-declares-force-majeure-at-manhattan-gold-depository/)
Royal Canadian Mint Gold ETR IPO Raises Over $600 Million in First 3 Weeks (http://www.silverdoctors.com/royal-canadian-mint-gold-etr-ipo-raises-over-600-million-in-first-3-weeks/)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-cartel-manipulation-of-gold-silver-is-the-ultimate-treason-as-us-wealth-flows-east/#more-19303

Serpo

29th December 2012, 05:40 AM

Harvey Organ: China is the Short Behind Gold & Silver ManipulationDecember 28, 2012 By The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/members/the-doc/profile/) 45 Comments (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-china-behind-gold-silver-manipulation/#comments)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Year-End-Sale.jpg (http://sdbullion.com/)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/images21.pngThe Doc sat down with Harvey Organ again for the 2nd of several interviews regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC’s silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery.
Harvey stated that recent evidence seems to validate his long held suspicions that China is behind the big gold & silver shorts, and stated that the nation is draining massive amounts of physical metal East.
Harvey also made the shocking allegation that COMEX is settling allocated delivery & storage requests with paper metal, and stated that he no longer has any faith whatsoever in the numbers reported in the COMEX gold and silver inventories.
Harvey Organ’s EXPLOSIVE 2nd interview with The Doc is below:

2013 Silver Eagles (http://sdbullion.com/shop/silver/2013-silver-american-eagles/) As Low as $2.59 Over Spot at SDBullion (http://sdbullion.com/)!http://sdbullion.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2013-Silver-Eagle.png (http://sdbullion.com/shop/silver/2013-silver-american-eagles/)

The Doc asked Harvey if there was an explanation for the absolute hammering the metals have received ever since the QE4 announcement:
The reason for the hammering is the control that the bankers need to get on the circumstances. This is not just the United States! You’re seeing Europe, Japan, you’re seeing QE going on globally all at once, so the bankers are nervous as hell! They have to dampen the paper market of gold, but at the same time they’re probably personally purchasing the physical metal, along with China, Russia, all the Stans, Iraq, Iran- this is taking a huge toll on London.
As you know, London is really a 100 to 1 paper to physical ratio in gold. The problem is that when you start removing that one physical ounce of gold to China, you start putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the bankers, as they have nothing bot hot air. This is why you’re seeing all the stories about rehypothecation, repatriation, stealing of allocated gold- they are probably doing that!
What’s happened is that the end game is being played out, and the bankers certainly don’t want you to win! And I can tell you that you will know the game is over when you hear Goldman Sachs is on the buy side of gold. At that point you have a plethora of buyers, no sellers, and the game is over.
CFTC Commissioner O’Malia asked me in March 2010 whether the COMEX could default.
I told him yes, it will default, it will default when all the gold leaves US shores and lands in China, Russia, and South Korea. He looked at me and said ‘South Korea?’ And I told him South Korea! And sure enough, South Korea is purchasing gold to a high degree. You’re now seeing India, all eastern nations buying physical! The only nation buying paper is Mexico, and they certainly found out the hard way when they bought 100 tons and found out it was unallocated and they simply got a piece of paper. I believe they are trying to acquire physical now.
You’re now hearing stories of Germany and Austria, and they’re trying to repatriate their gold back to their homeland. That’s when you start realizing that the pressure is on London. The moment London is out you now have the derivative mess. The derivative mess will be huge. You’ll probably see a default in London, then a default in the COMEX, and that will do it!
I personally spoke with Bart Chilton, and he used the following words: They’re wrapping the silver probe up in September and I expect to have a revealing of what goes on probably in October. It’s now the end of December. Bart Chilton personally informed me that the investigation on silver manipulation would wrap up in September. Chilton’s worried because they’ve wrapped it up, and they can’t release the findings, because it would take everything down!
They can’t release the results because it’s the government that’s behind everything! They’re behind all the trades, and they’re making such a mess of things that they can’t release the results, because no matter what they report they’ll be found guilty of a crime!

When The Doc asked Harvey to explain rumors of tightness in the silver market, when official COMEX inventories are substantially higher than early 2011 when they dipped below 100 million ounces, Harvey responded:
I have no faith whatsoever in the total registered nor the total eligible silver that they record.
I have no faith in the numbers for the simple reason that I see too much of the .000 indicating it’s a paper entry, and it’s really not there. Remember that this is a physical market. I want to see physical gold and silver. When you consistently see .000 in the bar weight, that’s paper silver being inserted into the inventory as an obligation of someone. The pieces of paper are being parceled out, and settling on accounts (with a bar number) all over the place! They’re using .000, because it’s easier than having an oddball weight.
It’s exactly what’s going on in London, there’s no difference! London is fixed with obligations- that same ounce of gold is obligated to so many others! That’s what’s going to happen with the COMEX. That’s why MF Global was confiscated! JP Morgan owed all it’s gold and maybe some silver as well, so they just took it in London! That’s why no one should be trading in the COMEX anymore, just go buy physical metal, and be thankful that you got it so cheap!
Don’t ask what the price is- the most important thing is that it’s physical! It’s amazing what you will be able to buy with your silver and gold when this game ends. That’s the big message that I can give you.
I talk to Bart Chilton, and the numbers that they give us seem to be phony. If it’s a physical market, how can all the inventory movements possibly be .000? And why when there’s settlements doesn’t the silver change from the registered down to the eligible? Nothing goes down to the dealer! They have to settle! Are they settling through the adjustments? The figures they’re reporting are phony.
The other thing that’s a huge concern is the numbers that are going through the silver vaults as opposed to gold. Gold on any given day is quite comatose. Every day in silver there are huge deposits, withdrawals, and adjustments. The fact that the movements are massive every single day is evidence that they are short physical metal, and they are scrambling to pay Peter, to pay Paul- down in London, down in China where they’re asking for it.
I hypothesized years ago that China has behind the main silver short, and it now seems that Turk and a few others believe that is the case. China originally had 300 million ounces way back in 1949, and they didn’t know what to do with it, so they stored it- Taiwan got China’s 69 tons of gold, but the silver stayed in China for many years until China started to Westernize.
I believe China’s 300 million ounces of silver became the original inventory for the SLV, along with Buffett’s. We are now seeing all this inventory go, and China is now manipulating the silver market down to pick up silver. Silver demand is through the roof in China, they are massively importing tremendous amounts of silver. This accumulation will be really damaging to JP Morgan who is massively short, who no matter what just cannot cover.
Keep an eye on the differential between the Shanghai silver price and the COMEX price. Unless you have a physical delivery mechanism, you have 2 different markets. So what you do is take delivery on the COMEX, and ship it by plane to Shanghai. China could certainly bankrupt the COMEX any time it wishes. If the American’s attempt to stop the silver exports, expect a swift and fierce reaction by China. The worst thing is this will bankrupt the COMEX- a single 100 ton order and it’s bankrupt.

The Doc asked whether Shanghai and other Asian exchanges could simply cause the COMEX to fade into irrelevance:
No, it will default, then it will automatically become irrelevant. The Bank of England is the center of the fraud. You have to look at the Bank of England. The BOE stores the gold for many nations in Europe. It’s there as a sub-custodian for the GLD. If you deposit your gold at the BOE, they can do whatever they want with it. It’s for deposit. Of course they give you a lease rate, and they can lease it no matter what!
Germany is now shocked out of their minds! They had no idea…which is fascinating, because we told them 10 years ago! They did remove some of their gold in London 10 years ago we recently found out, but everyone else is still keeping it there, and that is why we recently saw the Queen of England. It was a photo op to show that all the gold is there, but 70% has been leased out, and what you saw is what was left. Too much has been leased out, creating a derivative nightmare for the BOE, which in turn will knock out the SLV and GLD, which will then knock out our friends at the COMEX, and then we have a financial nightmare.

Regarding his outlook gold and silver outlook for 2013 Harvey stated:
I think you will see a resolution of things by March (metals manipulation), but we have to be very careful as we are going through the fiscal cliff. As we’ve seen, every time the DOW plummets they hit gold and silver. They knock out the thermometer, they don’t want to show that things are that bad. So I would be careful. I really don’t pay attention to the price. Just buy physical. The politicians won’t get their act together regarding the fiscal cliff until the DOW has crashed. I’m afraid that the economy will be so bad for all of us, it will be what we’re seeing in Spain and Greece.

Those who missed The Doc’s first interview with Harvey Organ can find it here (http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-cartel-manipulation-of-gold-silver-is-the-ultimate-treason-as-us-wealth-flows-east/), in which Harvey stated that the end game is being played out, that an Asian group has decided to take on the cartel and drain the physical silver from the COMEX, and that the bullion banking cartel’s suppression of the gold and silver markets is the ultimate treason against Americans, as 350 years of US wealth is being drained East due to the price suppression of gold and silver.
Be sure to check back over the weekend for the Doc’s 3rd and final interview with Harvey Organ!

http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-china-behind-gold-silver-manipulation/#more-19311

Serpo

29th December 2012, 05:43 AM

....

Serpo

7th January 2013, 02:47 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZsc4N_a60g&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZsc4N_a60g&feature=player_embedded

Shami-Amourae

15th January 2013, 03:33 AM

Why is Provident Metals (http://www.providentmetals.com/) flooded with orders? What's going on?
http://s1.postimage.org/5lpymx5i7/1_15_2013_2_30_50_AM.png

Serpo

18th January 2013, 01:16 AM

who knows he maybe right

On the heels of the US Mint suspending sales of silver eagles, today 56-year market veteran and analyst Ron Rosen sent King World News exclusively two outstanding charts and commentary for our global readers. This will give KWN readers an important snapshot of of the extraordinary roadmap he sees going forward for silver.

Ever since the bull market in silver began at $4.01 in November 2001, important and prolonged corrections have taken the form of a triangle. After spending many months forming the triangle a breakout to the upside would take place. The breakout to the upside on each of the three triangles on this monthly chart of silver was followed by a return to and successful test of the breakout level. The successful test was followed months later by a peak at a new high.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_$233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_S oar_files/KWN%20Rosen%2032.jpg

To hear which two companies are merging into a gold powerhouse with nearly 10 million ounces of gold and why it has attracted BlackRock, JP Morgan, Van Eck & Sprott

Asset Management as major shareholders click on the logo below:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_$233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_S oar_files/King%20World%20News%20-%20Keegan%20Resources%20Inc.%20.jpg (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2013/1/5_Keegan_Resources_Inc._files/Keegan%20Resources%202013.mp3)

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_$233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_S oar_files/shapeimage_22_1.jpg

“The $233 peak would be the high at minor wave (3) of Major Wave Three. If the long-standing ratio of silver to gold of 16:1 had been in place at gold’s last high of $1,923.70, silver would have already traded at $120.23. Based on that number it would take less than a double (from $123) to get to the target of roughly $233.

The 3, 5, 8, times the triangle lows and the minor wave (3) of Major Wave Three high of $233.00 for silver actually sounds reasonable. KWN readers need to remember that the way the finances of this world we live in are being run, $233.00 for an ounce of silver may prove in time to be a buy.

The angle of rise for silver’s Major Wave One was 18 degrees. Major Wave Three began in December 2008. The angle of rise for Major Wave Three is 33 degrees. The LTD (Long-Term Delta) # 4 high is due to arrive in February 2014. If silver touches the upper trend line at that time, which would be a normal occurrence, the price will in fact be approximately $233.00 an ounce. Keep in mind that the upper trend line at a 33 degree angle was touched once and would normally be touched on two more occasions before a serious correction occurs.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_$233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_S oar_files/KWN%20Rosen%2033.jpg

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_%24233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To _Soar.html

Serpo

18th January 2013, 01:48 AM

GOLD ANALYSIS 2013
http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
Alf Field
http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed. All the minor waves are in place and the A and C wave portions are approximately equal at -$120 each. The chart below depicts the action on COMEX via the 2 month forward chart:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/field010213a.gif
The analysis of wave C is as follows:

a. 1758 to 1687 -71
b. 1687 to 1727 +40
c. 1727 to 1636 -91

C. 1758 to 1636 -122

Wave a. at -$71 is 78% of wave c. at $91, an Elliott relationship.
Even the smaller c wave portion of wave C has 5 small waves which have a neat Elliott configuration, as follows:
Analysis of wave c of C:

i. 1727 to 1681 -46
ii. 1681 to 1706 +25
iii. 1706 to 1664 -42
iv. 1664 to 1680 +26
v. 1680 to 1636 -44
Wave c. 1727 to 1636 -91
Note that the corrective waves ii and iv are +25 and +26, confirming that they are part of the same wave. The downward waves are within $2 of -$44 each. All pretty neat.
The following chart of the PM gold fixings was prepared a couple of weeks ago to indicate the possible target low of $1642 for the end of the correction:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/images/field010213b.gif
Note that $1642 was also the 61.8% retracement level as well as the point where waves A and C would have been equal. That target of $1642 was not achieved, the lowest PM fix being $1650 on Dec 20, 2012. There was a slightly lower morning fix the next day, but there is enough evidence when combined with the Comex gold chart to conclude that the correction from $1797 has been completed.
Obviously a decline to below $1636 would render this analysis valueless and we would have to reconsider the situation. The PM fix on Jan 2, 2013 was $1693, so there is already some upward movement on the scale that one should now expect.
Once $1800 is taken out on the upside, the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful "cup and handle" base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. Once we have the next upleg above $1800 in place, it will be possible to start refining this target.
It seems that gold is well set up for a spectacular year in 2013.
Alf Field
3 January 2013

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field010213.html

Serpo

26th April 2013, 04:06 AM

Barrick/hedges/bigproblems

http://silverdoctors.com/barricks-200-million-ounce-silver-problem/

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=187605&sn=Detail

http://silverdoctors.com/some-seriously-bullish-news-for-gold-silver/#more-25724

Serpo

26th April 2013, 04:11 AM

A recent post post from Mamboi.......

mamboni (http://gold-silver.us/forum/member.php?3340-mamboni)

http://gold-silver.us/forum/images/statusicon/user-offline.png
Iridium http://gold-silver.us/forum/image.php?u=3340&dateline=1307906941 (http://gold-silver.us/forum/member.php?3340-mamboni) Join DateApr 2010Posts5,905Thanks759Thanked 2,235 Times in 947 Posts

Re: jPM is getting cleaned out folks
http://gold-silver.us/forum/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by chad http://gold-silver.us/forum/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?p=629567#post629567)
and then silver will go to $15.

Only if you buy some.......don't!

Here's an excellent summary of the present situation, the run on the gold bullion, written in terms the man on the street can grasp.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Is Your Gold Missing? (http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/04/is-your-gold-missing.html)

When it becomes widely known that all of the people who think they own gold in fact don’t own gold, that it’s been hypothecated and re-hypothecated so many times that there are 100 claims for every single ounce of physical gold, that is when the prices of gold and silver will really go berserk to the upside, and at that point the shorts will have serious problems - John Embry on King World News

The press pounced all over the massive smack down on gold/silver last week. Headlines were thrust in everyone's face. Gold dropped $200 dollars in two days and the media wanted to make sure everyone knew about it. Well, guess what? As I write this, gold has gained back over $100 that drop. But is this being broadcast in flashing marquee lights the way the sell-off was? Of course not.

In the aftermath of that sell down, a lot of facts have come to light. But first, the bounce we're seeing is illustrative of the fact that you need to hold on tight in this sector in order to truly benefit from the wealth benefits of investing in physical gold/silver and good mining stocks. As an example, since late 1999, the mining stocks have suffered two periods in which the mining stocks had severe sell-offs of this magnitude - late 1999 to early 2001 and mid-2008 - Oct 2008 - in response to large manipulated drops in the metals. But after the sell-off ended, it literally took less than 3 months for the HUI/XAU indexes to double from their bottom and then head to new all-time highs a few years after that. I feel bad for anyone who was shaken out this time around, but I guarantee you that Wall Street does not harbor the same sympathies...

At any rate, what's been exposed from this market price correction is that fact that 1) more people now understand why it is important to own physical gold and silver, as evidenced by the fact that U.S. quickly sold out of silver eagles and is on a track to sell a record monthly amount of gold eagles; and 2) there is a serious problem globally with amount of gold that is available for physical delivery to the buyers who are demand actual delivery.

I thought I would go over some statistics from the Comex to illustrate why we know this is the case. The total gold held on the Comex is 8.5mm ozs, of which 6.3mm is not available for delivery - i.e. it's investor gold being held in Comex vaults. Stunningly, over 2 million ounces of gold - roughly 60 tonnes - has been removed from the Comex vaults in the last three months. Most of it has come from investor accounts. You have to wonder why all of a sudden big investors have removed their gold from the Comex.

Investor gold is not "eligible" for delivery on futures contracts. The gold that can be delivered is sitting in "registered"accounts. The amount of registered gold currently is 2.28 million ozs. The total open interest in futures contracts for gold is 416k contracts, or contracts representing 41.6 million ozs. Essentially there's 18x more paper gold in the form of futures open interest than there is gold that can be delivered. The June front month for gold has 255k open contracts, or 25.5mm ozs open. That's 11x the amount of gold available for delivery. If even 10% of June gold contract longs held for delivery, the Comex would be completely wiped out of its gold and would have to default on the delivery of some. But the Comex has a "force majeur" clause in its contract that allows cash settlement. We won't see that happen in the near future most likely, but it will eventually happen.

In silver the total open interest represents 786.3 million ozs. That's about 3/4 of global annual production, which includes 257mm ozs of recycled silver. So, the total open interest on the Comex is about equal the total annual amount of silver mined globally. There's 39mm ozs of silver available for delivery. In other words the amount of paper silver on the Comex is 20x the amount of silver the Comex has for delivery.

I think that explains why big investors are removing their gold from the Comex. The Comex is one giant Ponzi scheme. Anyone who is going to rely on the Comex as a source of silver, either industrial or investment, is going to be left holding a giant, empty paper bag. That explains why we are seeing a such frenetic activity - not just in this country but globally - by investors looking to get their hands on gold/silver that can physically delivered to their possession. A long-time colleague of mine prepared this caption, which sums up the situation perfectly:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6FXMEfUw1wI/UXlnR1GfVoI/AAAAAAAABJI/Wpi0Q6wg8ug/s640/MissingGOld.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6FXMEfUw1wI/UXlnR1GfVoI/AAAAAAAABJI/Wpi0Q6wg8ug/s1600/MissingGOld.png)

As the severity of the physical gold/silver shortage vs. the paper claims issued (futures, LBMA forwards, OTC derivatives and Central Bank leases and swaps) against that actual amount physically available - as demonstrated by my Comex example, which is only part of the global problem - the price of gold and silver are going to start to go parabolic. Although most of you are not aware, but from 1974-1976, the price of gold dropped 47%. But from 1976 to 1980 the price of gold went up 800%. Given what we know about the massive, unsolvable global financial problems, and the enormous amount of money that will need to be printed to keep the system from collapsing outright, it's a good bet the next extended move in the metals will dwarf the move gold made in the late 1970's.

Posted by Dave in Denver at 11:59 AM

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013...ing.html#links (http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/04/is-your-gold-missing.html#links)

Serpo

26th April 2013, 04:11 AM

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/ (http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/uploads/SILVERC42513.jpg)

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/uploads/SILVERC42513.jpg

Serpo

26th April 2013, 04:19 AM

GOLD CONFIDENCE SHAKEN

http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif

Alf Field

http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
Late Friday afternoon in New York (April 12, 2013) gold plunged through the critical support level around $1525 level that has held resolutely since the start of this 19 month correction from $1900 in September 2011. In the process of this sudden drop, confidence in gold by long term investors has been badly shaken.

The sad thing is that this late afternoon selloff was an orchestrated event by people wishing to see the gold price lower so that they could cover short positions in the paper gold markets. Proof of this is that London PM fixing on Friday was $1535. Once the London physical market closed, the orchestrated selling in the paper markets gathered momentum. By the close of the Comex paper gold market, gold had dropped $60 in just the last couple of hours on very high volume.

This is not something new. Observers of the gold market have been aware of many other occasions where similar events on a smaller scale have taken place on Friday afternoons. There is little point getting one’s knickers in a knot about this because every short sale in the paper market has to be covered by a corresponding purchase in due course. Thus if people who bought into the selling spree simply hold onto their positions, a short squeeze will eventually develop as the short sellers try to cover their positions, causing the gold price to rise.

Often the physical markets come to the rescue as the lower prices generated by the Friday selloff sparks increased buying in the physical markets, helping to spur the recovery. The result is that the price of gold recovers fairly quickly after a Friday afternoon selloff. The coming week will show whether this happens again this time.

In January this year I published an article indicating that there seemed to be a reasonable chance that the long gold correction was over. That article indicated that if gold dropped below $1636, that the analysis was incorrect and that something else was happening. Gold did drop below $1636 and has continued to decline, proving that the January analysis was faulty.

At that time last January I had assumed that the rise from $1540 to $1790 in 2012 was the first upleg of the new bull market and that the correction to $1636 was the first minor correction of the new bull market. These were incorrect assumptions. The big correction from $1900 in September 2011 was still under way. The low had still to be reached.

In my Keynote speech to the Sydney Gold Symposium in 2011 I had a target of $1480 for the low of the expected correction. Despite several plunges into the low $1500’s, the price never achieved that $1480 target. The low price for Comex was $1523 and the lowest PM fixing was $1531 in late December 2011.

It bothered me from time to time that gold had not achieved my target. Now the late Friday selloff last week has driven the gold price to a closing level of $1477, finally reaching the target of $1480 set 19 months ago. What remains to be seen is whether this target holds and that the bull market resumes. The coming weeks should indicate what is happening.

What we need to look for is a swift recovery to above $1500 and an ongoing strong up-move in a truly impulsive manner. The fundamentals for holding gold are as strong as ever. Gold is an insurance against a range of financial disasters that we don’t need to go into now. You do not cancel your fire insurance when you can see fires burning all around you.

Certainly confidence in gold has been shaken and sentiment indicators are at record lows in some cases. This is exactly what one would expect at a major low in the market after a brutal 19 month correction. The conclusion is that factors are now in place which could support a major low in the gold price.

Alf Field
14 April 2013
Comments to: alffield7@gmail.com
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field041413.html

Serpo

26th April 2013, 04:40 AM

http://silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/usmint-goldcoinsales.png

(http://silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/usmint-goldcoinsales.png)http://silverdoctors.com/charts-of-the-day-us-mint-gold-silver-sales-2008-2013/#more-25607

http://silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/usmint-silvercoinsales.png (http://silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/usmint-silvercoinsales.png)

Serpo

27th May 2013, 04:05 PM

Gold to Rise into June 5th Turn Date

-- Posted Sunday, 26 May 2013 | Share this article | 4 Comments (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1369628603.php#disqus_thread)

May 25, 2013 UPDATE:

Dear Friends,

I have received numerous requests for an Update to the prior dates and charts posted on jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/). I have waited this week as I have been closely watching the gold market, and I wanted to be certain of the next date I post.

http://news.goldseek.com/2013/26.05.13a.jpg (http://news.goldseek.com/2013/26.05.13.jpg)

Click to enlarge chart. (http://news.goldseek.com/2013/26.05.13.jpg)
I have attached my most recent gold chart for your review. Please take the time to review the information within it:

Original Post April 19 stating that April 17 was THE bottom (Perfect and Holding to Date).

TURN DATES:
(I) May 3 (Perfect Turn Date)
(II) May 13 Expected Turn Date; May 17 Actual Turn (only four days after expected turn)
(III) June 5 - NEXT TURN. NOTE: This anticipated turn will likely coincide with a simultaneous Equity Market Correction (6/6/2013)
(IV) All dates forward are PRIVATE -- For Subscribers only.

I know not one person that has been willing to go on the record and post what I have posted. No individual has yet called the bottom for gold, and I have already gone on the record announcing the bottom only two days after gold hit $1321. The recent drop (just a re-test, in my view) was just four trading days and only $100 off—and folks seem to have forgotten that my Bottom call of April 18 has (so far) held beautifully! I sold my gold at $1900, as you are aware, and the $1321 bottom has not failed me.

For those of you who simply buy and hold Gold and Silver: sleep well, my friends, and know that your decision is a wise one into the year 2020, when they will top!

I leave you with this…

By carefully studying history, we will never need to guess what our world will look like tomorrow—for tomorrow has already happened in our past! We must remember: our grandparents awoke one morning to worthless paper. History tells us where we are headed and how it ends!

I wish you all an enjoyable Memorial Weekend.

Thank you,

CIGA Bo Polny

gold2020forecast@aol.com (gold2020forecast@aol.com)

ORIGINAL POST on jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/), posted April 18th, 2013 at 10:00 AM:

“This is a man we should watch.”
– Mr. Jim Sinclair

Gold crashes, a bottom comes in at $1321 on April 16. Mr. Bo Polny buys that morning and sends Mr. Sinclair an email. Mr. Sinclair asks for a chart with 2 turn dates that he posts April 18, 2013:

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/18/jims-mailbox-1236/ (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/18/jims-mailbox-1236/)

__________________________________________________ ______________________

A second post on jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/) April 19th, 2013 at 10:00 AM

“Friend CIGA Bo P has had some important calls on the market over the past few years. For this reason I am sending this to you for your consideration over the weekend.”
– Mr. Jim Sinclair

Mr. Polny states low “$1300 Gold–Never Again” and “Mr. Sinclair, as you are aware, I sold my silver at $49 and gold at $1900.”

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/19/1300-goldnever-again/ (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/19/1300-goldnever-again/)

__________________________________________________ ______________________

A third post, on kingworldnews.com (http://kingworldnews.com/), April 22, 2013:

“This is why two of the professionals that did recognize $1900 as a price the Banksters were most uncomfortable with also see this month as the culmination of an attempt to destroy physical demand by crushing the paper price. I cannot speak for Mr. Fennen, but I know that is Polny’s view. We are witnessing history here, and before this is over the physical gold buyers will crush the central planners.”
– Mr. Jim Sinclair

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/21_Sinclair__Physical_Gold_Buyers_Will_Now_Crush_C entral_Planners.html (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/21_Sinclair__Physical_Gold_Buyers_Will_Now_Crush_C entral_Planners.html)

__________________________________________________ ______________________

A fourth post on jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/) April 24th, 2013 at 10:28 PM:

Mr. Polny States…“With regard to Silver, it has been the weaker of the two as it sits at the BOTTOM of the 8-year support line of the gold/silver ratio that PERFECTLY matches the FINAL low of October 2008, which marked the FINAL BOTTOM! See attached gold/silver ratio chart.”

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/24/jims-mailbox-1241/ (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/24/jims-mailbox-1241/)

__________________________________________________ ______________________

A fifth and sixth post on jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/) on May 10th, 2013 at 7:54 AM and 5:04 PM, respectively.

After the Bottom call of April 18 for Gold, the next posted turn date, May 3, 2013, was hit perfectly at a $1487 high.

Mr. Polny states…“With regard to silver, this is a time for extreme caution! What is next? May 9-10, 2013… the drop! The question is, how low will it go?... silver is extremely vulnerable to a support break!”

Silver’s $22 low did in fact break on May 20, 2013.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/10/an-update-on-gold-from-ciga-bo-polny/ (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/10/an-update-on-gold-from-ciga-bo-polny/)

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/10/update-on-gold-from-ciga-bo-polny/ (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/10/update-on-gold-from-ciga-bo-polny/)

__________________________________________________ ______________________

A seventh post on jsmineset.com (http://jsmineset.com/) on May 14th, 2013 at 3:20 PM

Mr. Polny states… “Yesterday, May 13/14, marked a turn date.”

His timing ended up being off by just four trading days. The last day down ended up being May 17, 2013.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/14/jims-mailbox-1256/ (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/14/jims-mailbox-1256/)
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1369628603.php

Blink

27th May 2013, 04:54 PM

I'm not in the group that trades or watches for bottoms and tops. I'm just simple folk, but, this sentence I can relate to...........

"For those of you who simply buy and hold Gold and Silver: sleep well, my friends, and know that your decision is a wise one into the year 2020, when they will top!"

Serpo

11th June 2013, 02:41 AM

Silver Market Update Clive Maund
| Monday, June 10th
http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/service_links/facebook.png (http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.silverseek.com%2Fart icle%2Fsilver-market-update-12168&t=Silver+Market+Update) http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/service_links/twitter.png (http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.silverseek.com%2Farticl e%2Fsilver-market-update-12168&text=Silver%20Market%20Update) http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/service_links/forward.png (http://www.silverseek.com/forward?path=node/12168) http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/icon-print.png (http://www.silverseek.com/print/12168)

While silver is on the defensive short-term there is plenty of evidence that over the medium and longer-term it is setting up for a powerful rally. COT’s and sentiment are already very bullish indeed, which means that when the turn does come, the rally is likely to be accentuated by panic short covering.
On its 6-month chart we can see how silver is being pressured lower by its falling 50-day moving average coming into play overhead, although the increasingly large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages is indicative of an oversold state that increasingly calls for reversal. Volume is still predominantly negative, suggesting lower prices dead ahead. After that we can expect reversal. There was a pronounced bull hammer in silver in the middle of May towards the intraday low of which there is quite strong support – silver may drop no longer than the low of this hammer.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cms/1.png
The long-term 20-year enables us to see the big picture to advantage and to determine where this correction is likely to stop. If the low of the hammer fails then the price may dip a little lower into the strong support in the extensive trading in the $17.50 - $20 zone that occurred in 2008, 2009, and the first half of 2010. There is really strong support in this zone that should turn the price back up. Worst case is a drop to the lower trendline shown now at about $16, but this is considered unlikely given the already strongly bullish COTs and sentiment.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cms/2.png
The retreat this year has given Big Money, the Commercials and the like, the opportunity to cover almost all of their shorts for a nice fat profit, and has left the dumb Large Specs smarting from huge losses. The COT chart shown below reveals that the Commercials have almost completed the process of unloading their short positions. The media driven Large and Small Specs, the “victims”, are totally discouraged and largely out. These are the lowest readings we have seen since the Precious Metals bullmarket started in the early 00’s and needless to say this is now a powerfully bullish situation. It is now only a matter of time, and not much at that, before we see a dramatic reversal to the upside.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cms/3.png
The longer-term COT chart shown below provides additional perspective and on it we can see that the Commercials’ short positions have dropped to a very low level indeed – even lower than the freak market crash low of 2008. Meanwhile the habitual losers, the Large and Small Specs, are cowering in the corner licking their wounds, beset with timidity having reduced their long positions to very low levels. We are back at the starting line again with the stage being set for another major uptrend.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cms/4.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Thus it should come as no surprise to see that Public Opinion on silver is now at a very low ebb.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cms/5.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
In the context of all that we have observed above, the silver seasonal chart is most interesting. For it reveals that June is the weakest month for silver, on a generalized seasonal basis, but after that, things look up in July and especially in September. What we can infer from this is that any short-term weakness over coming days and perhaps extending to 2 or 3 weeks should be seized upon as presenting a major buying opportunity. We will use this window of opportunity if it occurs as the perfect time to load up with a range of silver ETFs, better silver stocks – producers with little or no debt and Call options.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cms/6.pnghttp://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-market-update-12168

Serpo

11th June 2013, 02:42 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qRp-EpvWxBUhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qRp-EpvWxBU

Serpo

11th June 2013, 02:45 AM

Jim Willie: Next Scandal to Break is Leasing & Theft of 20,000 Tons of Allocated Gold!

http://silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-next-scandal-to-break-is-leasing-theft-of-20000-tons-of-allocated-gold/

Serpo

11th June 2013, 02:47 AM

Gold Market Update

By: Clive Maund

-- Posted Monday, 10 June 2013 | Share this article | 1 Comment (http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1370873400.php#disqus_thread)

We are very close to or at a major bottom in gold and silver now, regardless of the potential for another short term downleg. This is made plain by the charts we are going to look at in this update. COTs and sentiment are now at extraordinary extremes not seen in the entire history of this bullmarket. This means that when the turn really comes we are likely to see a scorching rally which will be driven by massive short covering that will leave most investors standing, mouths agape.
On its 6-month chart we can see gold starting to be pressured lower again by its falling 50-day moving average, after a feeble recovery rally. Although it looks set to continue lower short-term probably into the support approaching its April panic lows, for reasons that we will come to later there is considered to be a fair chance that these lows will hold, or that if the price does break to new lows, it won’t be by much before it reverses to the upside after setting a bear trap. The position of the MACD indicator, which has largely neutralized following oversold extremes, certainly allows for further downside, but at the same time gold’s overall oversold condition is shown by the large gap that has opened up between the price and its 50-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average quite far above.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/1.pngGold’s 20-year chart is interesting as it shows that a very long-term trendline is in play that is supporting the price at about the current level. Given the now strongly bullish COTs and sentiment there is considered to be a fair chance that this trendline will cause the price to reverse to the upside very soon now. If it breaks down from this uptrend it will open up the risk of a drop to the strong support in the $1000 area, but this is considered unlikely because of the aforementioned positive COTs and sentiment.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/2.pngGold’s COT structure is little changed from last week. It is still strongly bullish with the Commercials having scaled back their short positions to a very low level, and Large Spec long positions having dropped back to a low level, while Small Specs have given up on the game altogether, which is a very positive sign. The slight uptick in Commercials’ short positions last week is thought to be evidence of some position taking ahead of Friday’s drop.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/3.pngThe long-term COT chart looks very bullish indeed, with the Commercials having scaled back their short positions to the lowest level since the bullmarket began. Meanwhile Large Spec long positions have been reduced to their lowest level since 2008, indicating general despondency typical of a market bottom, and Small Specs have abandoned all hope, with their long positions disappearing altogether. This all pervasive negativity on the part of traders is the stuff of which important bottoms are made.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/4.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Meanwhile, Hulbert Gold Sentiment is in the basement, which is bullish…
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/5.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The public have a low opinion of gold, another positive, as the time to buy is when most investors aren’t interested…
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/6.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The Precious Metals assets of the Rydex traders are at a very low level, which is a good sign, as they make a science of being wrong…
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/7.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The seasonal chart for gold shown below reveals that while June is overall a negative month, the best time of the year seasonally speaking is just around the corner, with August and September being the best months. The script this year could therefore involve a selloff over the short-term into a final bottom, and then a reversal and big rally in the ensuing months.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/8.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The dollar’s rally reversed as predicted in the last update. After forming a choppy top area, it went into a steep decline which stopped abruptly right at important support near to its 200-day moving average on Thursday. Given the magnitude of the dollar’s decline it is surprising that gold did not fare better, and this does not bode well for gold short-term, as the dollar now looks set to bounce back, although longer-term the outlook for it is bleak.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/9.png

Serpo

11th June 2013, 02:47 AM

While we can all chortle with mirth at Japan’s laughable attempt to imitate the Fed by printing money recklessly – laughable because they do not have the comfy cushion of being in possession of a global reserve currency - and how they drove straight at a brick wall leading to the distinctive sound of rapidly crumpling metal. What happened in Japan to the Yen and then to the stockmarket should serve as a dire warning to the Fed of what could happen if it continues to abuse the dollar relentlessly as it has been doing. The dollar chart now looks very scary, and although it does look set to bounce back short-term from oversold, which could clobber gold and silver one last time, what looks likely to happen is that it will rally up to form the Right Shoulder of the potential Head-and-Shoulders top shown on our 6-month chart for the dollar index below. Use this as your guide for when to reverse positions – dump the dollar when it tops out at the prospective Right Shoulder high, we’ll offload our “insurance” PM sector Puts for a nice profit and we’ll go aggressively long the PM sector across the board – ETFs, better producing gold and silver miners with low or no debt, and Calls. Note here that the dollar rally up to mark out the Right Shoulder of our prospective H&S top may not get as far as shown on our chart - we could see a stunted Right Shoulder. COTs for the dollar are still extremely bearish, with Small Specs being insanely bullish, which is a huge negative.

http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/10.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
US dollar Public Opinion has moderated from its earlier positive extreme which also called for the recent drop. This moderation has created room for the expected short-term relief rally to develop.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/11.pngChart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Although obviously cheap compared to last year it may still be a little early to buy PM stocks aggressively, which could easily fall victim to another short-term downleg, for reasons that are made plain by the 8-year chart for the HUI index shown below. This index broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders top earlier this year, whose minimum downside target on an equal move basis is about 210. If gold and silver drop short-term in response to a dollar bounce, they could get clobbered again, particularly as the oversold condition has unwound as is shown by the MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart having neutralized. There is some risk of them plummeting back to the vicinity of their 2008 lows. One big fundamental reason for the dreadful performance of mining stocks relative to gold is the huge increase in mining costs. However, when the turn does come a dramatic recovery is to be expected that will likely be amplified by short covering.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/12.pngWhile mining stocks are vulnerable to further short-term losses, there is plenty of evidence that they are close to putting in a major bottom. This includes of course the positive indications that we have already looked at above for gold and silver, but also various indications that the sector is way oversold already and approaching extremes that call for a reversion to the mean.
One powerful indication that the entire sector is close to a reversal is the chart below showing the ratio of the HUI index to gold. When this is at a very low level as now it shows over pessimism – when investors are scared and very negative towards the sector they favor bullion over stocks, and the more that this is the case, the more bullish it is. The situation is already really extreme, with this ratio already way below its low readings at the depths of the 2008 crash, and amazingly it is even approaching the dismal levels plumbed in late 2000 before the Precious Metals bullmarket even began. This is surely a sign that a bottom is close at hand.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/13.pngThe recent rotten performance of the Precious Metals sector is made plain by the chart below showing the ratio of the HUI index to the S&P500 index over an 18-year timeframe. This chart shows that the PM sector outperformed for most of the time from late 2000 right through to 2011, only really going into reverse since the late 2011 peak. However, the dreadful performance of recent months has brought it down close to an important relative support level, where there is a strong probability that it will reverse to the upside, and thus outperform the broad market once again.
http://67.19.64.18/news/CliveMaund/2013/6-10cmg/14.pngConclusion: all of the indications are that a major PM sector reversal is imminent, but we might see one last down first, particularly by stocks. Any such drop will be viewed as throwing up a rare opportunity to buy the sector at ridiculously low prices.

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1370873400.php

Serpo

11th June 2013, 03:58 AM

Getting Ready

Sunday, June 9, 2013 at 1:42 pm
I suspect we are about to have a rather consequential week, therefore, here's a Sunday post to get you started.
There's certainly a lot of disgust and angst out there at the price action from Friday. Put me in that category, too. The U.S. unemployment rate rises from 7.5% to 7.6% and it's used as a rationale for a 2.5% selloff in the price of gold? Uhhhmm...yah...that makes a lot of sense. I guess what doesn't make sense is going over it all again as I made my frustration pretty clear in the previous post. In the end, the desperate scheme of The Bullion Banks to transfer as much short obligation onto the backs of the Specs continues unabated.
This week's CoT report showed next-to-nothing in terms of weekly changes to net bullishness or bearishness. The real action, though, sprang forth from the monthly Bank Participation Report. Again, it is this report that many analysts use to calculate the net long or short positions of the individual Bullion Banks...and this month's report is a doozy!
The report shows that not only are the major Bullion Banks no longer net short, they are actually NET LONG gold futures. I've seen one report that suggests this is the first time the Bullion Banks have been NET LONG since 2001. I've also seen a report suggesting that JPM itself is now net long as many as 50,000 contracts! IF this is true, and it's simply a matter of correctly interpreting the data (of course the DATA ITSELF has to be accurate), then there can be NO DOUBT that the precious metals are on the verge of a MAJOR BOTTOM followed by a ferocious rally.
The only thing I'd like to add to the discussion is the rationale for JPM's move into NET LONG territory. The shortages in their gold vaults has been well-documented and clearly this has much to do with it. But there seems to be a lot of curiosity this weekend as to how JPM can be net long so many gold contracts yet still be net short so many silver contracts. The answer likely lies in offshore and OTC positioning, but as this relates directly to The Comex, I think that part of the JPM gold position is actually a hedge against their remaining silver position. Huh? Let me explain.
As you know, I watch the OI and CoT levels pretty closely and I've been banging the drum pretty hard for months about the unusual and exceptionally large Comex Commercial GROSS LONG position. This gross level of Commercial long contracts has historically and consistently fluctuated between 30,000 and 45,000 for the past several years. At price peaks, the gross level would be close to 30,000 and, at price bottoms, the number would rise to somewhere near 45,000. Essentially, these "other commercials" added contracts at lows and then closed them out at highs, making a tidy profit from anticipating how JPM was going to once again fleece the Spec Sheep.
Well, something flipped with this last price cycle. At the lows of last August, the Commercials had again built up a large gross long base (47,797) and, by the time price was capped at the announcement of QE∞ in mid-September, this position had been trimmed back (32,206). During this entire Cartel operation in the nine months since, you would have expected that the Commercial gross long position would have grown again. But, would you have expected this?
DATE PRICE GROSS COMM LONGS
8/14/12 $27.78 47,797
9/11/12 33.46 32,206
10/23/12 31.66 35,786
11/27/12 34.03 42,525
12/31/12 30.29 45,415
2/5/13 31.79 46,293
3/12/13 29.13 51,929
4/9/13 27.97 61,060
5/7/13 23.94 65,703
6/4/13 22.52 66,857
OK, so what the heck does all this mean? I'll try to bring it all together in some sort of coherent form:

Caught flatfooted and enormously short paper metal at the initiation of QE∞, a deliberate and calculated plan has been orchestrated by the major Bullion Banks, in particular JPMorgan.
By driving price the price of gold almost $400 lower, The Gold Cartel has been able to reduce their general liability by nearly 80% (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4750/speechless-turd) and, by virtue of the latest Bank Participation Report, some Bullion Banks have been able to move NET LONG for the first time in over a decade.
If reports are correct the JPM has flipped from 50,000 net short to 50,000 net long, we must conclude that the operation to smash gold is close to complete.
However, even though silver has been smashed a greater price percentage than gold, JPM has been been blunted in their attempts to completely cover their net short silver position as the "other commercials" (who at least on the surface don't appear to be JPM itself) have added at least 20,000 more longs than they have historically ever carried.
And notice that the gross long position shown above has continued to rise, even in the face of sharply lower prices over the past eight weeks. These are some very deep pockets that, clearly, are not being shaken out. Instead of selling on further weakness, they continue to add.
JPM could attempt to jam silver prices even lower in an increasingly desperate attempt to frighten these longs but at what cost? By doing so they lose big on their gold position and further exacerbate their already tenuous physical/deliverable gold position.
And it is this "juggling act" that leads me to think that this entire operation, which began a brutally-long nine months ago, is nearly finished.

You see, by moving so deeply long in gold futures, JPM has effectively hedged much of the remaining silver short position that they've been unable to cover. At its most basic level...if they are forced to cover silver into a rising price, the potential losses they'd incur will be more than equaled by the gains they'd show in gold. (Just for fun...If you're long 50,000 contracts and price rises $500 back to the August 2011 highs, you make $2.5B!)
Now, all of this is well and good and NO DOUBT foreshadows much higher prices for both metals in the weeks ahead. However, none of this is going to matter much to the Spec HFTs which are expected to pounce on the metals this evening, particularly in silver. The fact that China is "closed" through mid-week will only serve to exacerbate the paper price volatility. However, IF I'm right about the ideas laid out above, price should show surprising resilience this week. Gold has been very well bought each and every time that attempts have been made to drive it down through $1350. Let's see if this continues. Silver, too, has hung tough around $22 and has bounced back twice from "shock lows" near $21.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_6-9goldd.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/6-9goldd.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_6-9silvd.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/6-9silvd.jpg)
So, I'll close this post the way I began. This is going to be a very consequential week for the metals...one that will tell us a lot about the short-term and intermediate trend for price as we head into summer. Nearly every indicator that I've traditionally followed is indicating that a bottom is near and trend change is coming. Let's see where we go from here.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4768/getting-ready

Serpo

11th June 2013, 03:59 AM

Silver Investment Demand: The Ticking Time Bomb Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report
| Monday, June 10th
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Even though silver investment demand has picked up recently due to the lowest prices in over two years, this may be just the tip of the iceberg for what is to come in the future. Currently, only a small fraction of investors understand silver's future potential but that will change in the next few years.
Presently, the Main Stream Media bandwagon has been quite busy putting out bearish analysis on silver demand and price. Whether it's due to a decline of industrial demand or a lack of silver investment by those in India, there doesn't seem to be a shortage of this sort of commentary. However, this should not be a concern for those who understand the true fundamentals in owning silver.
The underlying problem with this present bearish commentary is that it is so typical coming from an industry that provides forecasts based on superficial, outdated and manipulated data. The world's financial system is being propped up by trillions of dollars of worthless paper instruments that have totally distorted the market's ability to value assets correctly. Some of these so-called assets are severely inflated, while others such as silver, are tremendously undervalued.
Severely Inflated Supposed Assets
According to the Investment Company Institute's Q4 2012 report, the U.S. Retirement Market was valued at $19.5 trillion, up from $19.3 trillion in previous quarter:
Q4 2012 Retirement Market Break-down (in trillions)
IRA's = $5.4
DC Plans = $5.0
Private DB Plans = $2.5
State & Local Govt. Pension = $3.2
Federal Pension Plans = $1.6
Annuities = $1.7
TOTAL = $19.5 trillion
Now, if we compare that data to the ownership of gold and silver, we have the following:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-10sa/image002.gif
Here we can see just how insignificant precious metal investment is compared to the total U.S. Retirement market. Furthermore, the current total value of the GLD & SLV is only worth 1% of the entire United States IRA market.
How can this be? How did the public get hoodwinked into owning such a large degree of paper assets when gold used to be a part of an individual's portfolio in the past? The answer to that question is probably due to the public suffering from four decades of amnesia since the dollar was backed by gold.
The financial system is in a complete mess. The only thing holding the global paper facade together is the continued monetary stimulus and bond purchasing by the world's central banks. This sort of activity has a lifespan, whose death may be close at hand.
Silver Investment Demand & Price
An error that many typical analysts make today, is to produce a silver price forecast based on industrial demand. Even though industrial demand is one of the forces that impacts the price, investment demand has been the overwhelming factor in the past several years.
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-10sa/image004.gif
From 2005, when the price of silver really started to take off and until 2011 when it hit a new annual high of $35.12, industrial demand mainly fluctuated between 450 & 500 million oz. However, total investment demand (coin-medal & implied net investment) rose from nearly 100 million oz in 2005 to over 250 million oz by 2012. It was due to this huge increase of investment demand during this period that pushed the price of silver to new highs.
Unfortunately for the precious metal investors in 2011, high silver prices generated levels of investment demand too rich for central banker's blood. So after a record of 5 margin hikes on futures contracts in May, 2011 and constant market rigging by central banks, silver investment demand declined in 2012.
This can be spotted quite easily if we look at official coin & medal demand (shown by the bars at the bottom of the chart) versus the price of silver in the graph above. As official silver coin sales increased from 40 million in 2007 to a peak of 118 million in 2011, the price of silver increased and peaked at the same time. But as demand for official coins such as Silver Eagles and Canadian Maples declined 21% to only 93 million oz in 2012, the price of silver fell along with it.
Furthermore, this was true with silver bar investment. According to the data from the 2013 World Silver Survey, silver bar investment declined from 100.6 million oz in 2011 to nearly half in 2012 at 53 million oz. In just one year, investment demand from these two sources declined 73 million oz (33%).
A Brief Word on Precious Metal Manipulation
Surprisingly, there is still a great deal of debate on the validity of precious metal manipulation in the market place. There are some very well known precious metal analysts who think the whole idea of market rigging is just plain silly. To them, it's just a matter of supply and demand. However this is indeed the problem at hand.
How on earth can the markets value a commodity properly when the majority of central banks in the world are manipulating and controlling the value of their respective fiat currencies via Treasury and Bond purchases? By continued manipulation of the bond and currency markets, the central banks have forced artificial demand in paper assets while attempting to destroy physical demand in gold and silver
Global Silver Investment Demand: A Ticking Time Bomb
This next chart shows just how much silver investment demand has increased in the past five years.
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-10sa/image006.gif
In 2007, total global silver investment was valued a $500 million. However, five years later this amount grew to nearly $8 billion in 2012. While that sounds like a great deal, this figure seems insignificant compared to the dollar amounts being thrown around the world today.
If we were to add up all global silver investment from 2007 to 2012 we would end up with a total of $26.4 billion. That's right... $26.4 billion. It is a very paltry figure when we realize the Fed purchases $85 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and MBS - Mortgaged Backed Securities.
Just think about it, the Fed bought more in MBS in the month of May than was invested in silver by the world in the past five years. When we examine these two figures together, it puts it into perspective just how out of whack the whole system has become.
The central banks will continue with the insanity of using monetary stimulus to prop up the world's financial markets until the whole system implodes. Once the Fed and central banks lose control of over the paper game, there will be a mad rush out of paper instruments and into physical assets.
Not many realize it, but Silver investment demand is a ticking time bomb.
At the SRSrocco Report (http://srsroccoreport.com/), we explore how energy will impact the precious metals, mining and economy going forward.

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-investment-demand-ticking-time-bomb-12170

Serpo

11th June 2013, 04:51 AM

June 11 (King World News (http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html)) - Gold & Silver Charts Of The Day

Physical demand for gold & silver coins remains strong. For the 3 months thru June, gold coin sales are 120k oz’s (46%) higher than for the 3 months leading up to the $1900 gold peak in 2011 (note: June sales are estimated). Just looking at January-March data, gold coin sales are about 65k oz’s (23%) higher than the 3 months leading to 2011 peak.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand_files/KWN%20Pomboy%20I%206%3A11%3A2013.jpg

Dollar amount of gold coin sales (3 month sum), is $100 million higher than the 2011 gold peak and, looking back, is at the highest level since June 2010. If just looking at January-March data, sales are $80 million higher than the 3 months leading to the 2011 peak.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand_files/KWN%20Pomboy%20II%206%3A11.jpg

April data for China retail buying of gold, silver & jewelry show record sales. Even if jewelry accounts for 40% of sales, that leaves $3 billion of gold & silver sales for the month...which is more than US Mint gold & silver coin sales for the past 12 months....

Continue reading the Eric Pomboy interview below...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand_files/shapeimage_22.jpg

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand_files/shapeimage_22_1.jpg

“Even factoring-in China’s population is 4x that of the US, this is still a very very strong number. According to the World Gold Council, Chinese demand of gold bars and coins grew to 109.5 tons in Q1 2013, which is 2.5x the 5-year quarterly average of 43.8 tons.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand_files/KWN%20Pomboy%20III%206%3A11.jpg

This chart speaks for itself. The last time sales were even in single-digit (12 month) year-to-year growth territory was in December 2003.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand_files/KWN%20Pomboy%20IV%206%3A11.jpg

What’s worth noting, along with these charts/data, is the disparity in East vs West view of precious metals, especially when seeing China’s retail gold & silver sales at such astonishing levels compared to ours. In the East, they view gold as a store of wealth and have become regular buyers. In the West, even while it is also considered a store of wealth, gold is largely not on the public’s radar.

US Mint sales are strong, yet in order to match data out of China (adjusted for population gap), sales would have to be about 3-fold what they are today. Interestingly, a recent video showed a man trying to sell a one ounce gold coin, which at the time was worth $1,600, for just $20. This took place in one of the wealthiest places in the west coast of the US. There were no takers even at $20. This quite clearly illustrated that the vast majority of all people in the US don’t even know what gold is worth!

If you were to try this in the streets of Shanghai, you’d be met with a 100-person curb-side bidding war inside of a minute or two. This sentiment gap will quickly narrow as gold makes its next impressive move and the public at large realizes that all is, in fact, not well in the world, and that the FED isn’t likely to back off on QE for a long time to come.”
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/11_Stunning_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts_Reveal_Shocking _Global_Demand.html

Serpo

16th June 2013, 04:41 PM

A Couple of Things

Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 2:58 pm
Before we start the week, just a few items for you to consider.
First of all, the Commitment of Traders report from Friday was interesting yet again. Below is a c&p of my thoughts from Friday afternoon.
"GOLD
The Large Specs added 3000 longs but also added a fresh 5200 shorts. The Small Specs dumped 137 and added 998 new shorts and now are once again net short by almost 700 contracts.
The Gold Cartel dumped 1000 longs but also covered 4300 shorts, thereby reducing their net short position by 3,330 contracts. This leaves them net short just 58,300 contracts with a net short ratio of 1.40:1.
SILVER
The Large Specs dropped their net longs by another 1650 contracts and they are now net long just a total of 3,700 with a preposterously low net long ratio of just 1.12:1. The Small Specs dumped 350 longs and added 1367 new shorts. This leaves them net long only 1300 contracts.
The everybody-but-JPM silver commercials added another 1,581 longs this week. This brings their gross long position back to the 2nd highest on record at 68,438. WOW! JPM and their pals were able to further reduce their gross short position, too. They used the weakness brought upon by the Spec selling to cover 1798 contracts. This leaves them with a gross short position of just 73,458. All totaled...The entire commercial category on silver is now net short just 5,020 contracts and the are sitting on a new record low net short ratio of just 1.07:1.
Once again, from a historical perspective this is truly astonishing...almost breathtaking. From time immemorial, even getting the Commercial net short ratio down under 1.5:1 was considered extremely bullish. Now it's 1.07:1!. If you want to see some historical comparisons, I once again refer you here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4492/strange-days-indeed.
I would strongly encourage you to go back to that post and review those numbers. Not just the historical ones but even the data from the CoT of 2/5/13. The changes in the four months since are amazing."
Just for fun, let's go back and look at the data from the "Strange Days" post of 2/9/13. All of the historical CoT data is telling but let's look specifically at the CoT from 2/5/13. Why that date? You likely recall what happened on the days that followed. First, we had the price smash of mid-February and then we had the stop-running, range breakdown price smash of mid-April.
Again, all you hear in conventional media and analysis is the "the bull market in the metals is over" and why is this? Because the speculators are selling and, in doing so, they've driven price sharply lower. But always remember and never forget that whenever someone is selling, there is someone buying and taking the other side of the trade. So, now take a look at this:
DATE L.S.LONG L.S.SHORT RATIO CARTEL LONG CARTEL SHORT RATIO
2/5/13 42,449 6,588 6.45:1 46,293 98,239 1.99:1
6/11/13 35,309 31,806 1.11:1 68,438 73,458 1.07:1
In just over four months, the net short position of the Silver Commercials has dropped from nearly 52,000 contracts to just 5,000...a reduction of over 90%!! So, the specs have sold and the commercials have bought. Whether you are bullish or bearish going forward is simply determined by whether you think the specs lead this "market" or the banks. I think you know where I stand.
Let's look at gold in the same format.
DATE L.S.LONG L.S.SHORT RATIO CARTEL LONG CARTEL SHORT RATIO
2/5/13 192,806 55,341 3.48:1 145,291 319,898 2.20:1
6/11/13 174,015 115,010 1.51:1 146,470 204,792 1.40:1
For gold, there are a couple of things that should absolutely jump off the page at you.

The Large Spec gross short position has more than doubled in the past four months.
The Gold Cartel gross long position is unchanged. Contrast that to the commercial gross long position is silver, which has climbed by nearly 50% over the same time period.
The Gold Cartel has covered 115,000 short contracts. This has reduced their net short gold liability from nearly 175,000 contracts (17,500,000 ounces) to just 58,000 contracts (5,800,000 ounces). That's a reduction of 67%.

Also consider that, according to the latest Bank Participation Report, chief evildoer JPM has now flipped what was a 50,000 net short position in gold into a 50,000 net long position.
Again, I ask you: Going forward, with whom would you like to side? Do you think that The Specs will be proven correct with a money-making short position or do you think the The Forces of Darkness will rule the day?
While we're on the subject of JPM, let's move on to point #2 of this post. Why is JPM now net long in gold and, at a minimum, likely net neutral in silver? Hmmmm. Why would that be??
As you know, sources have told me that late last summer, the criminal CFTC was given damning information, proving JPM's role in manipulating the metals "markets". As I've often stated, the inaction by the CFTC in the 10 months since makes them a co-conspirator to a crime in progress. But now ponder this: We know that the commissioners of the CFTC are just a bunch of politically-appointed hacks, firmly in the back pocket of the Big Banks. This worthless organization has been "investigating" silver manipulation for nearly five years. The information provided them last summer should have brought about an immediate conclusion and judgment. Clearly, it didn't. Why?
As we look at the CoT data in the 10 months since, the answer is obvious. When presented with the irrefutable proof of manipulation, rather than act immediately, the CFTC kicked-the can and sat on it. Eventually, they must have notified JPM that they "had the goods" and ordered JPM behind-the-scenes to end their manipulation scheme. JPM said "OK, just give us a few months and we'll take care of it". Et, voila! From a net silver short position of over 30,000 contracts back in November, today the JPM silver short position, if it exists at all, is likely less than 10,000 and, in gold, they've flipped from a net short position of 50,000 to a net long position of 50,000. Mission accomplished! JPM can no longer be said to be the big, evil, rascally short manipulator and the CFTC is absolved from their dereliction of duty. Ain't that great?
Finally, to thought #3, and this is a biggie. Did you see this yesterday? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-15/deutsche-bank-horribly-undercapitalized-its-ridiculous-says-former-fed-president-hoe
So now we have a former Fed Goon openly questioning whether or not Deutsche Bank is solvent. This isn't the first time I have heard this. The Golden Jackass himself has been telling me this for months. In fact, when I saw this story, I emailed it to him and he responded with this, which he gave me the OK to post for all to read:
"My best German source told me that D-Bank is going into failure very very soon.
A week ago, he said 3 banks were in great danger of failure, likely not to survive, to happen soon
after a certain amount of begging, along with my lame guesses, he gave in
Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank -- all gonna die in a huge round that will eclipse Lehman & Fannie & AIG
it will be global
watch a Japanese bank join them
post this if you wish."
OK, let's worry about Barclays and Citi another day. For now, let's focus on DB. They've been in trouble for some time and now it's becoming clear for all to see. Additionally, I was told by an English friend that "a major bullion bank has been and continues to be on the verge of bankruptcy/insolvency". Hmmm. I wonder who that could be? There are, of course, six major banks that do all of the clearing for the LBMA. They are:
Barclays, Scotia, HSBC, JPM, UBS and...drumroll please...Deutsche Bank.
Things get curiouser and curiouser, don't they? It's going to be another interesting week. I hope you're ready.
TF

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4783/couple-things

gunDriller

16th June 2013, 06:11 PM

in physics, a phase transition is solid to liquid, liquid to gas, solid to gas (dry ice) ... etc.

so actually, i think the term "phase transition" is accurate.

it's going from a paper market to a physical market.

but i think the transition for silver will be more violent than a day-to-day phase transition like boiling water.

what allows the market to behave so atypically, the manipulation, is aided & abetted by the big delusion.

the 100:1 paper to physical ratio, for example. Morgan Stanley customers thinking they owned the Silver they bought from Morgan Stanley. what they owned was a credit derivative tied to the price of silver.

after all, it's from Morgan Stanley, it's got to be good, RIGHT ? <== DELUSION.

Morgan Stanley settled that case in 2007 for $4.4 million. Morgan Stanley returned the money they charged customers for storing precious metals they told the customers they purchased. then they charged storage fees. they never bought the metal but still they charged the storage fees.

when the customers complained, via a lawyer, Morgan Stanley returned the storage fees. customers got zero metal. Morgan Stanley somehow maintained a not-totally-terrible reputation.

Morgan Stanley has a reputation as being the investment bank for Shabbas Goyim, whereas Goldman is where you go if you're Jewish. (that's the informal rep.) but Morgan Stanley sure has the basic idea of financial fraud down pat. i'd say they scored 100% on that test.

Morgan Stanley is the tip of the tip of the iceberg.

the phase transition involves Americans realizing that the corporations they used to revere, to trust their money to (because they got nice marble and granite buildings ?), are puss. the germy kind of puss.

Serpo

18th June 2013, 02:31 PM

The Long Silver Ranger
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (http://www.silverseek.com/users/jeff-lewis)
| June 16, 2013 - 7:51pm

http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/service_links/facebook.png (http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.silverseek.com%2Fcom mentary%2Flong-silver-ranger-12188&t=The+Long+Silver+Ranger) http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/service_links/twitter.png (http://twitter.com/share?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.silverseek.com%2Fcommen tary%2Flong-silver-ranger-12188&text=The%20Long%20Silver%20Ranger) http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/service_links/forward.png (http://www.silverseek.com/forward?path=node/12188) http://www.silverseek.com/sites/all/themes/goldmine/images/icon-print.png (http://www.silverseek.com/print/12188)

Could China be the big silver long? Who else has deep enough pockets to endure the recent price weakness and the increased margin requirements that typically follow?
Nevertheless, the Chinese willingness to accept fungible dollars instead of precious metal seems to be waning. They are quietly accumulating metals..
Perhaps this explains why the silver open interest has remained stubbornly high throughout the most egregious washouts the silver market has seen in years.
Normally this has the effect of clearing out weak longs, often setting the scene for a price turnaround based on the COT structure.
This could be just a subset of a peaceful currency maneuvering plan.
China is Now a Net Importer of Silver
China used to export silver, but it has recently turned into a net importer. It would therefore make sense for the Chinese to seek delivery, especially given the difficulty of obtaining a reliable stock of silver these days.
Outside of the big ETF (SLV) and COMEX, no significant (government) stockpiles of silver currently exist. Furthermore, scrap flow is typically reduced in a soft market, since people are less willing to part with their recyclable silver metal.
Miner acquisition is also relatively difficult, and its feasibility can often be affected by politics and the lack of opportunity.
The silver miners — including the few primary silver producers — have long suffered from suppressed market pricing. Furthermore, what capital and financing they receive usually comes from the same bullion banks who keep the price of silver artificially low.
China and other sovereigns would naturally seek to reduce the level of their forex reserves denominated in U.S. Dollars, especially since the Fed seems locked into its role as lender of last resort to the world - and especially to the Eurozone.
A case in point is that 600 billion of QE2-generated electronic cash actually went to foreign banks as a way of building capital reserves in lieu of ECB balance sheet expansion.
The Irony of it All
The silver market has often noted a phenomenon of overnight dumping that is typically seen at the Asian open, but it is timed to occur before most Asians are actually awake.
It is now thought to be U.S. operators initiating the selloffs at Asian openings. Could this be yet another front in the trade/currency war?
New buyers for silver currently seem to be waiting in the wings to accumulate silver on the dips. Of course, the silver market has been a “buy the dip” market since the 1980's, which is the classic investment strategy employed in a long term bull market.
Short Term Versus Long Term Perception
The Chinese tend to take a long term view and are notorious for being far sighted in their investment habits.
Not only is it necessary to go back decades in order to understand and gain perspective on the silver market’s currently situation, but it is also interesting to project forward several decades.
The key to doing this is using the measuring stick (the U.S. Dollar) as the proxy. Furthermore, observing the persistent rise in unfunded liabilities should help any potential silver investor maintain a bullish long term view on silver.
However, for those hoping for a silver rally in a shorter time frame, it might be helpful to be reminded of the (high open interest with a reduced, though still concentrated short) structural set up in the silver futures market that allows price suppression to exist.

http://www.silver-coin-investor.com (http://www.silver-coin-investor.com)

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/long-silver-ranger-12188

Serpo

18th June 2013, 02:33 PM

Silver Price to Rise as Top Miner's High Grade Production Evaporates Steve St. Angelo, SRSroccoReport
| Tuesday, June 18th
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One of the most insidious problems taking place in the gold and silver mining industry is the decline in falling yields. Not many realize, when yields decline, production evaporates and disappears. To offset the decline in metal yields, the mining companies have to add new mines and or increase the amount of processed ore.
If we take a look at the top 6 silver producers, we can see that the average yield declined 38% since 2005, from 13.0 oz/t (ounce/tonne) to 8.1 oz/t in 2012:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-18sa/image001.png
The companies and individual primary silver mine included in the graph above were, Fresnillo, BHP Billiton Cannington, Pan American Silver, Polymetal, Hochshild & Hecla. Furthermore, I only included primary silver mine production from these companies.
For example, both Fresnillo and Polymetal had higher annual silver production figures than is shown in the graph above. This by-product silver came from their primary gold mines and was excluded from the calculations as it would have significantly lowered the average yield.
This next chart shows the inverse relationship between falling yields and increased processed ore:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-18sa/image003.png
In 2005, these companies processed 9.4 million tonnes of ore to produce 123 million ounces of silver. However, by 2012 a total of 15.8 million tonnes of ore was processed, an increase of 67%, to supply 127 million oz of silver.
Pan American's Dolores silver & gold open-pit mine was not included in the 2012 calculations due to its extremely low average ore grade of 42 g/t (grams/tonne). Even though the Dolores mine added 2.6 million oz to Pan American's total, it would have severely impacted the group's 2012 annual yield by knocking it down from 8.1 oz/t to 6.4 oz/t.
Declining Silver Yields = Evaporated Production
If we take the top 6 silver production in 2005 at 123 million oz and figure a seven-year 38% decline in yield, we would have the following:
123 million oz (X) -38% yield = 47 million oz loss of production
So, if no new production was added by these 6 mining companies overall supply would have declined to 76 million in 2012. To be able to increase production on top of declining yields, the silver miners have to either add new mines or ramp up their milling and processing of ore.
A perfect example of this took place at Fresnillo. Here we can see that overall production at Fresnillo remained the same in 2012 as it was in 2005:
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-18sa/image006.gif
How was Fresnillo able to keep its production at 33.4 million oz as its average yield declined from 15.2 oz/t in 2005 down to 9.2 oz/t in 2012? This 40% decline in yield caused a huge reduction of 13.3 million oz in this seven-year time period.
To offset this large decline in yield, the company ramped up its milling capacity 26% at its Fresnillo mine and added production from its new Saucito mine. In 2012, the Fresnillo mine accounted for 26.4 million oz of production while Saucito made up the difference by adding 7 million oz to the total.
Again, the figures in the chart above only came from Fresnillo's two primary silver mines... Fresnillo and Saucito. Fresnillo accounted for all the production until 2011 when Saucito ramped up production.
This is the big problem companies face as silver yields decline. In the case above, Fresnillo PLC had to ramp up production at Fresnillo and had to bring on a new mine (Saucito) just to keep production the same as it was seven years ago.
Now we can see how costs rise as yields decline. For instance, think of all the capital it took to bring Saucito from the exploration stage to commercial mine production. Furthermore, the company had 875 contractors working at its Saucito mine in 2012 including all the additional mining equipment, materials and energy costs.
The Cost to Produce Silver will Rise as Yields Continue to Decline
The impact of falling yields shown in the Fresnillo example above is taking place in the whole mining industry. Pan American Silver was producing silver at 7.4 oz/t in 2005, but by 2012 this had fallen to 5.1 oz/t (this is excluding the Dolores open-pit mine which would drop the average yield down to 2.9 oz/t). Furthermore, Hochschild's average silver yield declined from 12.4 oz/t in 2005 to only 6.7 oz/t in 2012. I could go on and on.
What we are witnessing here is the evaporation of high-grade silver production only to be replaced by a much more expensive low yielding supply. This will only become more difficult each passing year. As costs to mine silver continue to rise in the future, so will the price of silver.
Lastly, energy is the overwhelming factor contributing to the increased costs of mining silver as yields decline. Thus, silver will become one of the best stores of value in the future because it functions as an excellent store of trade-able energy value.

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-rise-top-miners-high-grade-production-evaporates-12194

Neuro

18th June 2013, 03:48 PM

Wouldn't the falling ore yield be because of the rising silver price since 2005? It has become more economical to mine lower yield ores because the price is higher than it was 2005-2009.

Serpo

18th June 2013, 11:59 PM

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/silver5.gif (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/silver5.gif)

Notice the tight trading band maintained for most of June 17th (red line)? That’s the sort of trading typically seen when High Frequency Trading algorithms comprise the majority of the volume on futures exchanges. Given the downward bias, this week’s example shows what most likely are HFT algos run in service of the cartel’s interest. But check out both the regular and after hours trading in New York for both June 17th and June 18th. There are visible buy-side upswings at the open of New York trading that deviate from the tight algo-dominated pattern encapsulating New York trading. Real accumulation started at the New York open today and yesterday, only to be met with a capping effort as the London PM Fix approached — with today’s downdraft representing a classic smash down against stop loss orders, resulting in quick downward price spikes.

Keeping tame price trends for the London PM Fix is one of the prime objectives of the cartel. More physical bullion deliveries are tied to the London PM Fix than any other paper-based price. But it’s noteworthy that this week shows new long-side interest coming out of New York, and we need to keep an eye on this to see if the trend continues.

It’s also worth pointing out the contrast Kitco’s 72-hour gold chart provides. It lacks the tight algo-driven pattern the silver chart demonstrates. This suggests silver algo-trading management by the cartel outside of New York hours executed to cap silver and, in turn, guide gold downward.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-footprints-hft-algos-and-price-discovery-mockery-just-another-24hr-period-in-the-paper-silver-world/#more-28129

Serpo

19th June 2013, 12:01 AM

Wouldn't the falling ore yield be because of the rising silver price since 2005? It has become more economical to mine lower yield ores because the price is higher than it was 2005-2009.

I know they do that with gold ,not sure with silver

Serpo

19th June 2013, 12:03 AM

ALERT: JP Morgan Increases SLV Holdings by 500%!

http://www.silverdoctors.com/alert-jp-morgan-increases-slv-holdings-by-500/#more-28052

Horn

19th June 2013, 12:12 AM

I think the prices for the progressive lenses in my glasses doubled since this thread was created.

Shami-Amourae

19th June 2013, 12:32 AM

Should I buy now, or when it hits $5?

I think the whole shortage story is bullshit now. Why are there no shortages $21.50?!

gunDriller

19th June 2013, 12:03 PM

Should I buy now, or when it hits $5?

I think the whole shortage story is bullshit now. Why are there no shortages $21.50?!

in 4 minutes, Bernanke will have spoken.

normally he speaks part-hawk, part-dove on monetary policy.

it's true that the market manipulation benefits insiders and screws investors.

it may be that the only way to test the scam is to try to buy, for example, 1 million ounces.

for that you will need a winning lottery ticket for about $50 million. after taxes, $24 million, maybe.

i would be very interested to see the reaction to the market of such aggressive buying.

if one person cleared out Provident, Gainesville, APMex, and Tulving of all 1, 10, kilo, and 100 ounce silver bars - what would happen ?

because the market is so manipulated, the acquisition of a large chunk of physical may be the only way to test the market, specifically regarding alleged shortages. e.g. how the silver ads on the radio talk about Apple running into silver shortages, using that as part of the silver sales spiel.

those ads don't have much effect on me. i would never buy from the radio advertiser.

Serpo

24th June 2013, 03:02 AM

Gold Trader: “Wall Street’s Gold Put Options Paid Off Handsomely Before The June Expiration.” (http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-wall-streets-gold-put-options-paid-off-handsomely-before-the-june-expiration/)

June 23, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva

inShare1

http://bullmarketthinking.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/lloyd-blankfein-smile1.jpg
Following continued selling pressure and another major downward thrust in the price of gold last week, recent interview guest (http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-stock-market-may-crash-10-20-in-next-5-10-days-will-create-setup-for-bubble-phase-in-gold/) Gary Savage, shared some powerful commentary in a note to subscribers over the weekend.
Speaking on Thursday’s smash of the gold price, Gary noted that;
“About a month ago I vaguely remember something coming across my email…about a huge position in June GDX & GLD put options. Now I see why gold was held below $1400, and what was driving the completely irrational $75 drop in the pre-market Thursday morning. Wall Street was making sure their put options paid off handsomely before the June [21st] expiration.

http://bullmarketthinking.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Gary-Chart.png (http://bullmarketthinking.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Gary-Chart.png)

(click to enlarge)
In my opinion the precious metals sector was originally manipulated to move physical metal from west to east. However, Wall Street saw an opportunity to capitalize on that original manipulation and make some fast money over the last several months by exacerbating the short side manipulation.
The question now is will the manipulation continue indefinitely? And I think the answer is no. For the simple reason that at some point the upside potential becomes enormous and Wall Street will make a lot more money by letting the secular trend resume, [rather] than…trying to force the market [down further].
I think Wall Street has generated about as much profit as they are going to get on the short side, and are…ready to flip to the long side. Once we get the manipulators off our back and Wall Street in our corner, I expect we will see 100% or [larger] gains out of the miners and silver in the first three or four months.”
——

Thanks,
Tekoa Da Silva
Bull Market Thinking
http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-wall-streets-gold-put-options-paid-off-handsomely-before-the-june-expiration/

Serpo

24th June 2013, 03:07 AM

What do they care if you can buy physical or not ,this is a paper market,right.

Serpo

26th June 2013, 10:39 AM

With gold and silver plunging, top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick spoke with King World News about what to expect next, and also sent KWN 2 remarkable charts. Gold has now reached Fitzpatrick’s price objective in the mid-$1,200s, which he called for after gold pierced the key $1,520 area to the downside. What Fitzpatrick had to say about gold and silver will surprise KWN readers, along with the two powerful charts he sent. Eric King: “Tom, remarkably you called the rally high on gold at $1,791 in October of 2012, you then turned bearish on gold and it proceed to come down significantly in price. After gold recently breached the key $1,520 area you called for a target around the mid-$1,200s, and once again, almost like a magnet, gold has made its way to your target zone. What are your thoughts here Tom?”

Fitzpatrick: “Yes, it looks as though this correction may be nearing the end now that the objective we had been targeting has essentially been satisfied. It’s possible that gold may trade a bit lower because of momentum, but certainly we have now achieved the target I gave to you when we broke the double-top on gold.

This also gave us a high-to-low down-move on gold of approximately 34%.... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/26_As_Gold_%26_Silver_Plunge_Here_Are_Two_Remarkab le_Charts_files/shapeimage_22_1.jpg

“We found this interesting because it was virtually identical to the high-to-low down-move that we saw in gold in 2008 (also 34%). While we certainly haven’t seen anything yet to say we are about to head up dramatically, we believe that we may be bottoming here in gold.

We’ve also had a significant move in silver which is virtually identical to what we saw in 2008. The down-move in silver is now at roughly 60%, and, again, that is what the silver market experienced during the 2008 meltdown. This makes us reasonably comfortable that both gold and silver are nearing the end of this corrective phase since they have followed the same path as the 2008 corrections. We are now looking for signs that this is a bottom, despite the weakness, and that we may turn from here.”

Eric King: “As I mentioned earlier, you nailed the top of the counter-trend rally in gold near the $1,800 level in late 2012, after calling the rally off the lows in the $1,500s. Now you have made another nice call with the plunge we have seen here in gold. How did you know we would see another round of weakness in gold?”

Fitzpatrick: “Better to be lucky than brilliant any day of the week. At the end of the day, we originally thought the $1,520 level would hold on gold. But once we broke that support level, it set up a very clear target in the mid $1,200s on gold for us.

Now that we’ve essentially achieved that target, our feeling has always been that a healthy trend gets healthy corrections. This is yet another healthy correction like we saw in 2008. The interesting thing is because of where we’ve come from, if we were to now follow, over the next three years, the move after we put in that 2008 low in gold in terms of magnitude, it actually suggests something in the region of $3,400 to $3,500 for gold (see chart below).

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/26_As_Gold_%26_Silver_Plunge_Here_Are_Two_Remarkab le_Charts_files/KWN%20Fitzaptrick%20gold%206%3A25.jpg

As you know, in our bigger picture that has always been our long-term target in terms of where gold may go. So we haven’t deviated from that way of thinking. If anything this just solidifies our view that a host of markets are following the 1966 to 1982 pattern, which means this cycle will ultimately culminate around 2016. So what’s happening here now is actually pushing us into a target for gold that fits nicely with our big picture view of a host of key markets.”

Eric King: “If we’re near the end of this cyclical decline in both gold and silver, Tom, what should we look for going forward?”

Ftizpatrick: “If we are in fact ending it, as I mentioned our focus has been that we will now start the multi-year move on gold to $3,400 to $3,500.

Again, if you look at silver going back to the 2008 correction, we got down to levels below $9, then we saw the silver price multiply by a factor of over 5 times. So assuming this marks a point near the end of the correction in silver, then our bias would be one that would take silver not only to new all-time highs, but we would look for a target as high as $100 for silver (see chart below).

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/26_As_Gold_%26_Silver_Plunge_Here_Are_Two_Remarkab le_Charts_files/KWN%20Fitzpatrick%20silver%206%3A25.jpg

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/26_As_Gold_%26_Silver_Plunge_Here_Are_Two_Remarkab le_Charts.html

Serpo

30th June 2013, 02:41 AM

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Stunning_Indian_Buying_To_Crush_Silver_Shorts_fil es/shapeimage_27.png

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Stunning_Indian_Buying_To_Crush_Silver_Shorts_fil es/shapeimage_28.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Stunning_Indian_Buying_To_Crush_Silver_Shorts_fil es/shapeimage_28_link_0.pnghttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Stunning_Indian_Buying_To_Crush_Silver_Shorts_fil es/shapeimage_28_link_1.png
Sprott: “I just read some data on India. It said that India, last year (in the) first five months, imported 1,900 tons of silver. So far this year they have imported 2,400 tons. Now to understand the significance of this I have to tell you that the amount of tons (of silver) mined (annually) is 25,000.... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Stunning_Indian_Buying_To_Crush_Silver_Shorts_fil es/shapeimage_22_1.jpg

“At 2,400 tons in the first five months, you are basically talking at least 5,000 tons (of silver) for the whole year. That would be 20% of the world’s (annual) silver production. And this is not going into industrial uses. This is going into savings (for investment purposes).

And there is only a certain percent of the silver market which can go into savings because a lot goes into industrial. But here is the ‘piece de resistance,’ they said (India) imported 720 tons in April (annualize 8,000 tons). In May it went to 900 tons, annualized call it 11,000 (tons). We’re going from 1,900 tons (of silver Indians were purchasing) to 11,000 tons, in a 25,000 ton market. That’s impossible. There’s not that amount of silver available for investment.

Here’s what’s interesting about these numbers, Eric: As they (Indians) can’t buy gold, they are going to buy silver. If you tell the Indian population they can’t buy gold, they want to buy something real. They don’t want fiat paper. They are going to buy silver. And maybe in June or July, which we don’t have data on, when the restrictions and costs have shot up here (in India to buy gold), maybe they will buy even more (silver).

(Another example) It’s impossible for China to replace, if they imported over 800 tons of gold last year, and let’s say you couldn’t really buy it, the number they would have to buy is something like 48,000 tons of silver to replace that (gold equivalent). We only mine 25,000 tons a year, and there’s only 10,000 tons of that available for investment. And it looks to me like they (India and China) are buying it all right now.

So I think if this data is true we have the most phenomenal story for silver that you could possibly imagine. We will just nail those paper sellers to the wall here.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Eric_Sprott_-_Stunning_Indian_Buying_To_Crush_Silver_Shorts.htm l

gunDriller

30th June 2013, 11:49 AM

so i wonder if $18.18 was the low.

i can't imagine the Cartel just giving up.

Serpo

1st July 2013, 12:02 AM

Silver finally sees the good flush in the Weeky timeframe, possible bottom being marked.

-- Posted Sunday, 30 June 2013 | | 1 Comment (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1372604714.php#disqus_thread)

By Scott Pluschau
The Exchange Traded Fund for Silver symbol SLV, had the "Measured Rule" target of a large "Rectangle" pattern fulfilled this week in the Weely timeframe. Pricing patterns, or Support and Resistance levels in the Weekly timeframe are the strongest from a chart perspective in my experience. There is also a potential reversal pattern developing now as well. First the measured rule takes the distance from the top to the bottom of a given pattern and adds that onto the breakdown point. Quite often the supply ends here in a bearish pattern as the weak handed longs have finally been flushed out by this point.

The Rectangle is similar to a "Balance Area" using Auction Market Principles. The rectangle or balance area is a horizontal phase of development, or a picture of value among market participants in a given degree of timeframe. Value is a market that is two sided, or balanced between supply and demand. When the lower extreme of the balance area is no longer seen as an unfair low price to do business, market participants can make the initiative move to sell, and that is when you go from a phase of horizontal development to vertical development, or a market that is "seeking value". Vertical development is one sided price action or a market dominated by either supply or demand.

This week saw a Bullish "Hammer" reversal candlestick in Japanese Candlestick Analysis with increasing volume. This candlestick represents downside price rejection and increasing demand. With follow through next week to the upside with another week of increasing volume and bullish price action, this would increase the probabilities for a change in trend in the big picture.

There has not been much to be excited about for the Bulls in quite some time in the precious metals, but their spirits should start to lift is there is confirmation of the Hammer next week.

(Click on chart to expand)
http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-30sp/1.png (http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/6-30sp/2.png)
Join me on Twitter or Stocktwits or Linked In @ Scott Pluschau
http://scottpluschau.blogspot.com/
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1372604714.php

Serpo

1st July 2013, 12:06 AM

From his blogg above 5 days earlier

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

In Gold, the drop from 1400 to 1300 was quick, and mostly in the overnight hours, so I do not see strong resistance above 1300 if bullish price action and volume begins to pick up after a reversal pattern develops. I am eager to day-trade gold above 1300 but for now the path of least resistance is lower and that should always be respected.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-srER3L8hRxk/UcmZDqKcFtI/AAAAAAAAD_U/W5bzcahRbyc/s320/GC.png (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-srER3L8hRxk/UcmZDqKcFtI/AAAAAAAAD_U/W5bzcahRbyc/s1600/GC.png)

I have one eye on Silver, as the potential is there for a squeeze above 20.00. The measured rule of some Bearish patterns in Silver is around 17.00, and that is where I think the floor is in Silver so a further drop cannot be ruled out for now prior to a reversal pattern developing.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BN5ZS9H3IbM/UcmZkTd5XmI/AAAAAAAAD_c/s7oQ2yRkT1o/s320/SI.png (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BN5ZS9H3IbM/UcmZkTd5XmI/AAAAAAAAD_c/s7oQ2yRkT1o/s1600/SI.png)

So much is dependent on the "Risk Off" environment in US Equities, but with further weakness in the S&P 500, the "Diamonds in the rough" will be those assets that show "Relative Strength".

gunDriller

1st July 2013, 02:49 PM

I have one eye on Silver, as the potential is there for a squeeze above 20.00. The measured rule of some Bearish patterns in Silver is around 17.00, and that is where I think the floor is in Silver so a further drop cannot be ruled out for now prior to a reversal pattern developing.

heck of a heck of a heck of a bargain at $17.

heck of a heck of a bargain at $20.

heck of a bargain at $23.

a bargain @ $26 !!! :)

Serpo

1st July 2013, 04:31 PM

http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1372693683.php

Serpo

1st July 2013, 05:04 PM

Gold And Silver – Purely A Mental Game Right Now. Do Not Blink
Dennis Miller
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.13/images/blink.jpg
“Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink.”
There is a similar situation with regard to fiat paper everywhere, but not a gold delivery to be made. The delirium cast by central bankers issuing unlimited fiat has kept so many people in a fiat-induced fog, unable to see clearly. The fog has lifted. It is all a game.
See the fraudulent scheme for what it is and then fear no more. It is just a matter of time before everything unravels, as it surely is.
The price of gold and silver are closer to a bottom than a top. The QE-Infinity is closer to a top and will collapse under its own “goldless” weight. The PM holders are on the correct side of history. Understand that it has been one of the bigger world scams played by the central bankers, the illuminati who believed themselves untouchable, beyond the scope of comprehension by the non-banking world.
Stop buying into the scheme of the moneychangers. Their time has come, and it is but a matter of time. They are playing with everyone’s mind, doing everything possible to destroy the gold/silver markets, committing self-destruction in the process. They are making every attempt to discredit the barbaric metal that cannot be eaten, that pays no dividends, but somehow survives as the most reliable measure of accepted value.
The moneychangers are dragging the faux decline for as long as they can, hoping to wear down the resolve of PM holders. Ask yourself, are you selling your holdings of either gold or silver has price has declined? Will you sell out if gold goes to $1100, silver to $18? If not, then what difference does the current price of gold of silver make? If you are not going to sell, then let the central bankers crush the price as much as they can!
The paper holders are trapped and desperate to extricate themselves, at greater and greater losses. This is the best gift PM buyers and holders could want. Stackers keep stacking. Back up the truck and keep on loading. This is no longer a game of finesse. It is all about the paper rats and central bankers, [not sure if there is a distinction to be made], caught golden[less] handed, cheating everyone possible who believed in the system. The system is breaking down, collapsing under it own misdoings.
Never lose sight of common sense. Price typically drops due to a lack of demand, an oversupply, or a combination of both. Do you believe there is a lack of demand? [The acknowledged world-wide demand being at its highest.] There surely is no oversupply, yet price is at its lowest in almost three years. Logic tells you how the current forces of supply and demand are dysfunctional. They have been replaced by the false supply forces of central bankers. The longer central planners destabilize the natural forces of the market, the greater the ultimate reaction will be in the opposite direction.
Paper gold has no value, at least to those who own it. Well, maybe they believe it has value, but when the time comes to cash in the chits, the holders of paper gold and silver will have their belief system turned upside down. Everyone knows the paper market dwarfs to physical market, and until the paper market shrinks to a level more on par with the physical, the unwinding of huge paper longs will continue.
In the process, those who value the value of owning and holding physical gold and silver will be justly rewarded. The fiat gold, [like all paper] has to vaporize before the rewards for keeping the faith in the physical will come to pass, and at the much higher prices most have been anticipating. The supply/demand relationship will remain dysfunctional for as long as it takes, and until the paper market collapses. With its collapse will come the proverbial golden phoenix rising from the distorted ashes left behind.
Ques of 10,000 Chinese waiting to buy gold; unabated purchases by China, Russia, India, et al, of whatever is available; mining shortages, cost of production over current prices, and whatever other story or fact one can produce does not matter. The course is set, and nothing will change it. Events will just have to play themselves out, regardless of anyone’s expectations, hopes, or fears. It may take a month, many months, a year, or maybe even longer. No one knows, as has been so apparent for the past few years.
The illuminati are powerful and control all the money in the West, and every dirty trick will be played, count on it. China, Russia, India, Turkey, the Middle East, et al, are no longer buying what the West has been selling…fiat deceit and lies. Exit stage left, West, however long it takes.
The “reality” of the faux paper market is presented next. All the charts say there is no ending action, yet. Time and price are now the enemy of paper, and a gift for the buyers of physical. Stick with your plan. Your time is coming. Almost all want it to be tomorrow, but that will not be. Just remain firm in the belief that it will be. Gold is truth, truth gold, and that is all ye need to know.
[Apologies to Coleridge and Keats.]
Here is what the charts of paper gold and silver are telling us. Charts do not lie, even though they may only be a chart of [paper] lies.
We look for synergy between time frames, but it appears to be changing, as you will see. Wide range bars tend to keep subsequent bars within the high and low of the wide range bar, shown at the top. The second wide range bar, from April 3rd from the right, was also a wide range bar with a close in the middle. The fact that price left that wide range bar so quickly is surprising, and we surmise it reflects the “managing” of price by central banks, unnaturally forcing price lower as fast as possible. We could be wrong, as any guess can be.
http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GCA-M-28-Jun-13.gif (http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-purely-a-mental-game-right-now-do-not-blink/attachment/gca-m-28-jun-13)
We are of the mind that the charts no longer matter, for they reflect an artificial paper supply side with no accounting for the reality of demand for the physical. What we are looking for now are signs of change, and more focus is placed on current developing market activity. As an aside, we threw in an example of how a clustering of closes is the market’s way of sending a message of balance that will lead to imbalance.
The last bar is very interesting. We see it as a subtle sign of possible change. It is explained on the chart, but we need to see more weekly development to confirm or negate our market sense.
http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GCA-W-28-Jun-13.gif (http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-purely-a-mental-game-right-now-do-not-blink/attachment/gca-w-28-jun-13)
We talked about how a wide range bar contains immediate future activity for some time. Here is one on the daily showing this market behavior, and it is presented in contrast to the monthly April bar, viewed as an anomaly. If, in fact, it were from price being forced lower sooner than normal market activity would have taken, we see it as a positive that the central bankers are becoming more visibly desperate.
The comment on the breaking of support on strong volume is made as a future reference for a potential short. We want to point out that the market is the best source of information. Here is one piece of information that is known today that can possibly affect the outcome of a rally into that area at some future point. The point being, there is no need for any guesswork when deciding to buy/sell, if you have the patience to wait for these edge opportunities.
Where the monthly chart showed no sign of ending action, the daily chart is starting to show possible signs of change, change that can take months, [or longer], to turn this market around. The market provides information like pieces to a puzzle, available for everyone to see, if they look.
http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GCQ-D-28-jun-13.gif (http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-purely-a-mental-game-right-now-do-not-blink/attachment/gcq-d-28-jun-13)
We go right to the weekly silver chart next because it is showing clearer signs of potential change. That one single bar, the final bar coming at the very end of the month, 2nd Qtr, end of the first half of the year, is a story in itself. It raises three Red Flags, or warning signs, as explained. Another puzzle piece.
http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/SIA-W-28-Jun-13.gif (http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-purely-a-mental-game-right-now-do-not-blink/attachment/sia-w-28-jun-13)
We see definite synergy in the silver time frames, and we took note how well silver not only held but rallied, as gold was pushed lower for a part of the early trading day. It has been relatively weaker than gold, but not on Friday.
This is all taking much longer than many expected. One need not be religious to keep the faith, for the reality of owning the physical will not disappoint. The ultimate facts are on the side of PM holders.
Hold steady, hold fast, keep on adding, and do not blink!
http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/SIU-D-28-Jun-13.gif (http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-purely-a-mental-game-right-now-do-not-blink/attachment/siu-d-28-jun-13)

www.profitconfidential.com (http://www.profitconfidential.com)

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.13/blink.html

Serpo

1st July 2013, 07:57 PM

see if what this guy says turns out, so far his bounce up to 1258 to 1262 has happened

I found this guy when looking up Gann

you can get emails of his updates and he sells soft ware for traders but for long term holders his free emails are good

(http://www.gunner24.com/home/)http://www.gunner24.com/home/

http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/june-2013/30062013/

shttp://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/98822bed5e.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

gunDriller

2nd July 2013, 06:38 AM

[URL="http://www.gunner24.com/home/"]see if what this guy says turns out, so far his bounce up to 1258 to 1262 has happened

technical analysis is generally meant to model a free market where supply & demand are a majority part of the forces affecting price.

especially since April 12, 2013, the US gov., through its proxies JPM & HSBC, has manipulated Silver & Gold so thoroughly that about all we can do is to thank them for the buying opportunity. but, it's hard to feel grateful to a sociopath like the US gov.

but to predict the behavior of such a manipulated market ?

it requires inside information or luck - or, knowledge of the US calendar. sure, July 5 to whatever might be when they raid. from experience, we know they can't let up, because prices will rise. so the day after the July 4 holiday is a logical time to commence major raids.

Serpo

2nd July 2013, 02:14 PM

I agree but we are talking W.D Gann here

gunDriller

2nd July 2013, 05:12 PM

I agree but we are talking W.D Gann here

had to look him up -

"William Delbert Gann (June 6, 1878 – June 18, 1955) or WD Gann, was a finance trader who developed the technical analysis tools known as Gann angles, Square of 9, Hexagon, Circle of 360 (these are Master charts). Gann market forecasting methods are based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics.[1][2] Opinions are sharply divided on the value and relevance of his work.[3] Gann wrote a number of books on trading."

so his professional life would have been from about 1900 to about 1943, which is when he would have been 65. though if he was like Jim Sinclair, he may have done a lot of important work after the age of 65.

i would say that the markets Gann observed were in the time-frame 'before manipulation', but i don't think that's accurate. Rothschild manipulated the English markets massively as far back as 1814.

i think sometimes markets are 'rational' enough so that they can be accurately modelled using mathematical models (using the term mathematical to encompass Gann's work, "based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics".)

but when markets are highly manipulated, as PM markets have been from April 12, 2013 to present. it's like having a manic-depressive girlfriend.

( i had a friend like that once. i got so used to her cancelling dates, that i thought if she showed up for 50% or more of our planned outings, we were "doing good".)

i think the PM markets are a combination of "raid behavior" (that produces the double-waterfall price charts and the 11%-over-2-days price drops), and "in-between raid" behavior.

of course, sometimes, in between the big raids, they have little raids. or no raids.

i am personally doubtful that conventional (Gann-ian) technical analysis can shed light on market behavior when the market is highly manipulated.

Serpo

5th July 2013, 05:41 PM

Serpo

10th July 2013, 04:04 AM

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-the-pm-bellweather/#more-28963

Neuro

12th July 2013, 11:51 AM

Gann was into price and time relationship and when time runs out ,thats it.

I respect Gann above all others and even have some books by him.

I know what you are saying GD ,it will be interesting to see what happens in the next time period july5 to july 14 , regardless .
Seems very unlikely we'll see a low happening in the next couple of days. IMO if it hadn't been for blatant manipulation, we wouldn't have seen any lows whatsoever, the last few months. But PM's are interesting in that aspect, the more expensive they become, the more desirable for buyers. So one can crush the demand by making them crash in price, and thus sustain the value of Fiat. It's only the very few you don't fool this way...

chad

12th July 2013, 12:06 PM

it's going down more because i just bought some 3 ounce bars from monarch.

ximmy

12th July 2013, 01:27 PM

it's going down more because i just bought some 3 ounce bars from monarch.

You should have bought ATB's

chad

12th July 2013, 01:55 PM

You should have bought ATB's

too classy for me. i am more of an old milwaukee type guy.

gunDriller

12th July 2013, 03:14 PM

i think the Cartel is on vacation. they went a little further than the Hampton's or Long Island.

Horn

14th July 2013, 10:23 AM

I think the prices for the progressive lenses in my glasses doubled since this thread was created.

I received a coupon for $50 progressive transition lenses the other weekend at the market.

Went to the eyeglass store where the optomitrist told me "Those lenses are Chinese crap as compared to what you have!",

that are triple the price.

Serpo

16th July 2013, 05:52 PM

still checking this guy out ,yes we all know its manipulated ,however if what this guy says plays out it would be good indicators if wishing to sell at sometime

as he puts out free info but charges for traders it is perfect for lo0ng term holders

Silver and gold partially with uncommonly strong buy signals

Please pardon my sarcasm. But gold really delivered an unusually powerful buy signal. I’ve avoided the effort of browsing exactly the last “that important buy signal”. My sensed memory tells me it was months ago. Here again it’s supposed to be a matter of a fake as well as all the “few” short- and medium-term buy signals in 2013 were. The shorts are just untightening the rein a little bit, I think.

If it is really more than a countertrend move since the last important lows, technically silver should have to out-perform gold very clearly, especially now at the beginning of a sustainable possible change in trend! But it doesn’t. It’s bobbing up and down. No impulse move, no energy is to be seen. It’s tinkering again with a formation of continuing the trend. It seems to be an upwards sloping channel. These are unequivocal evidences that another test of the lows is very likely to happen, most probably followed by some new lower lows:

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/bdcf1d6933.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)
Last Thursday a first little buy signal succeeded on daily base. The Blue Arc Resistance was overcome on closing base. The first target of this countertrend is activated thus. It’s the first double arc at 20.56. A daily close above the first double arc activates the 2nd double arc at 21.20 as the main target of this swing. On Friday the Blue Arc tested back, and the red candle just narrowly above the Blue Arc is another indication how groggy and shaken silver is. Normally the final break of the Blue Arc should have had to lead to subsequent buys…

From the GUNNER24 Forecast point of view there are some other signs of weakness. On the one hand there’s the several time test of the 1*1. Certainly it’s positive that this one resists, but we can’t talk about really strong energy development. Then there was the first initial impulse. It lasted but two days. The really persistent new moves are expected to show initial impulses of let’s say 5-8 days of duration.

If the countertrend wants to last 13 days, at the first double arc and 20.56 it will finish before silver dives again. But the performance of gold (see the next chart…) also permits a 21 day lasting countertrend and reaching the 2nd double arc and the determining resistance line at 21.20. That’s where at the latest the shorties are expected to tighten the hangman knot tensely again.

Gold got through with the best week in all 2013. Yeah…, hard to believe: this fiddling around was the highest weekly gain in the whole year 2013!

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/578d9f5e26.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

In the weekly 13 candle up the week traded on the important time line I analyzed most extensively in the last issue (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/july-2013/07072013/). In the important time lines the resistances as well as the supports are pretty easy to overcome. Frequently they don’t play any part. For gold the weekly opening above the lower line of the 4th combined with the important time line constellation finally meant a lush weekly gain.

The weekly close above the 1274 horizontal resistance – now support – facilitates now a test of the 1344-1347 resistance Gann Angle. This one is moving for the next two weeks between 1344 and 1347. The strongest Gann Magnet, in this case the strongest resistance, will be at 1347 the week after next. There the resistance Gann Angle will meet the upper line of the 4th at 1347. What’s in store for gold then, well, some glances into the past are sufficient. A hefty decline is to be expected there! W.D. Gann: „When price meets time a change is imminent“.

This decline is likely to last till the middle of August. We can expect that at least one of the still pending sell-off targets – 1172/1140/1122 – will have to be worked off during this coming sell-off wave.

It will take a weekly close above the upper line of the 4th to deny such an outcome!

We cannot only make out the strongest weekly resistance at 1347 but also an important resistance in the daily time frame – the lower line of the 2nd double arc at 1345:

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/da78d1cb0c.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

Gold is showing a 3 day initial impulse from the lows. Thus gold is stronger than silver. On Thursday gold achieved a double buy candle on daily base. Within one day the Blue Arc as well as the upper line of the first square was broken upwards finally. On Friday gold tested back only the upper line of the first square. Thus, altogether gold is stronger than silver, therefore gold and silver are very likely to be in a countertrend bounce now.

First target for this countertrend hence is the first double arc in the daily time frame – 1302. Actually gold is in the 10th day of the countertrend, thus the first double arc is supposed to be reached at the 13th day of the countertrend at the latest = Wednesday. In the strong downtrends the counter moves only extend up to the first double arc before the main trend is resumed again.

But, since the weekly time frame permits the 1344-1347 until the week after next being effective as a resistance there in the daily setup also the 2nd double arc and if the actual countertrend performs in price EXACTLY the way the last important countertrend (purple arrows) did, I think that gold isn’t likely to achieve its countertrend high at 1344-1347 before it’s near to the 21st day of the countertrend.

http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/july-2013/14072013/

Serpo

16th July 2013, 05:54 PM

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/15_Silver_Set_To_Advance_A_Remarkable_800_From_Cur rent_Levels.html

Serpo

11th August 2013, 04:29 PM

Precious Metals firing buy signals (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)
The big 4 in the precious-metals universe to wit gold, palladium, platinum and silver generate new and partially spectacular buy signals on Thursday and Friday. The liberation strikes in both currently strongest metals in the precious-metal complex – silver and platinum – are not only supporting the one of the complex that is sensed to be the weakest once more – gold, but pointing now to a longer lasting precious-metal rally/bounce till the beginning of September.

All the four mentioned metals are now most likely to be in a confirmed uptrend on daily base, for some higher daily lows have formed during the last bottoming process. Here are the potential uptargets till the beginning of September: Silver = 22.50$; Platinum = 1550$; Gold = 1387$. For palladium the maximum uptarget is 800$.

Let’s consider now in the daily time frame the 4 precious metals with their respective actual buy signals, their uptargets in price and time as well as their inner strength or weakness compared with one another.

Here’s a view to both highflyers of last week. They produced the clearest buy signals.

Silver – 2 candle up setup:

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/efd2d2fa3a.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

Finally: On daily base silver is indicating us the first confirmed uptrend of the entire year 2013! Higher lows are the only features for a confirmed uptrend. Last Sunday (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/august-2013/04082013/) I was still supposing that silver would have to fall down to the 1*2 Support Angle to develop perhaps enough up-energy in order to be able to start a liberation strike. The visible rebound from the 1*2 Support Angle on Wednesday (green circle) cemented the higher low on daily base. The rebound energy from the 1*2 is extremely strong. Thursday showed the first “double buy candle”. The purple daily trendline and the resistance of the first double arc were closely overcome in one go. On Friday the next powerful buy signal being the next double buy candle followed. In one go the metal came off the first double arc resistance, in addition re-conquering the 1*1 Gann Angle.

Moreover silver achieved a new swing high = uptrend confirmation!

By the final break of the first double arc, now the 2nd double arc is activated as the next uptarget. 21.20 to 21.05 is what silver is expected to be able to attain next week. The next several-day consolidation will have to start at the 2nd double arc. A daily close above the 2nd double will activate the main target of this uptrend in that case = 22.05$. Time target for the 22.50 is the first September trading week.

The perfect (because pretty riskless) entry into the current uptrend should be produced by a possible test of the 20.10 horizontal support next week.

Platinum – 3 candle up setup:

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/5d89671686.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

During the last two weeks platinum re-tested intensely the first double arc and the support Gann Angle anchored in the chart above. The fourth test of this Support Angle (green circles) on Thursday was finally responsible for the strong rally then. The rebound energy from the Support Angle is monstrous. It’s rarely to be observed. On one single day succeeded the upwards dissolution of the existing consolidation at the highs, to break the resistance of the daily trendline (purple) and to overcome the resistance area of the whole 2nd double arc – an extremely infrequent occurrence! On Friday the next confirmation of the continuation of the uptrend followed...

... the 2nd was finally broken upwards, thus the next double arc in trend direction is activated as the target: 1550$. This price target is supposed to be reached by the end of August.

An entry into the current uptrend will be granted by A) a daily close above the next important horizontal resistance at 1505 or B) a thoroughly possible extended test of the 2nd double arc and the 2*1 Support Angle: 1484-1475.

The performance of silver and platinum are usually harbingers of what is still to come for gold. Concerning the unambiguous buy signals gold is lagging behind just having been able to establish a higher daily low during the last days. The big crack as in silver and platinum is still due. But it is likely to occur within the coming 5 days by virtue of the forerunner function of silver and platinum, if everything goes expectedly…

Gold – 3 candle up setup:

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/b1e5f811f4.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

The most important realization of the last days is – as mentioned – the cementation of the higher daily low. In my opinion it’s very positive that gold is now rising up as both analyzed metals were doing. The 1272 is a strong combined daily, weekly and monthly supports! On Wednesday the third test of this important support on daily base took place – green circles. It was successful, inter alia because on Friday succeeded for the first time closing within the lines of the 2nd double arc. This successful test of the 1272 has got particular impacts in the monthly time frame, hence in the medium to the long term.

The consequences are far-reaching. On the one hand, technically August as well as September is not likely to go beneath the 1272!!! But if it does, prices below 1272 during the next 4-6 weeks would be a new, lasting sell signal after which subsequently the actual correction low at 1182.60 will be headed for.

Well, next week at first the daily down trendline (purple) is supposed to break upwards. A daily close above 1322 will confirm that finally. But gold is not going to fly before the first clear close above the upper line of the 2nd double arc. A daily close above 1330 during the next 5 trading days will generate this next important buy signal. Not before that the 1387 = combined daily and weekly resistance will be finally confirmed. A daily close above 1330 during the next 5 days would activate the 1387 at the 3rd double arc resistance till the end of August 2013.

If no close above 1330 succeeds during the next 5 trading days, well, in that case we’ll have to reckon with a new test of the 1272 till the end of August.
To round off the big picture let’s have a look at palladium, the strongest precious metal in 2013. It’s the only one of the 4 precious metals that comprises a tight plus for 2013: +5%. The world-wide surplus in demand prevented palladium this year from being beaten down the way silver and gold were. Target for 2013 is and keeps being the 800$, as analyzed already most extensively in the free GUNNER24 Forecasts of May 12, 2013 (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/may-2013/12052013/):

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/4528954f39.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/may-2013/12052013/)

In the monthly chart above you see the 13 year existing monthly resistance, presented in May 2013. It’s likely to be reached this year yet, passing at 800$.

Now we’re newly given a confirmation for reaching the target by the actual daily up setup:

http://www.gunner24.com/typo3temp/pics/323a4b4d03.jpg (http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter/product-bundle/)

From the June lows a 3 or 5 candle up setup is measurable in the daily time frame. Compared with the other 3 metals this initial impulse is much stronger. Its range comprises about 60$ going from 629$ at the 06/27/2013 low up to the 689$ high of 07/03/2013 – a plus of a 9%. Here again palladium is leading the precious metals. Likewise the following ascent up to the 2nd double arc is proceeding much steeper and thus faster than in case of the other precious metals.

PA # re-tested extensively the 1st double arc after reaching the 2nd double arc bouncing between the 2nd and the 1st double arc to and fro. It’s a strong consolidation formation pointing to rising prices. If this consolidation area is left upwards, it’s likely to be with a strong, steep, fast move. Maybe as early as on Monday PA # will achieve the liberation strike by a mighty buy candle in the style of platinum!

If palladium manages to overcome the short-term orange dotted daily down trendline, it will be likely to go quickly up to the next higher purple dotted daily down trendline = 760$. A daily close above 766 - an important horizontal GUNNER24 Resistance starting from the upper line of the 2nd – would activate the 800$ target in the daily and monthly time frames!

Serpo

24th September 2013, 04:12 AM

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/23_Two_Astonishing_Charts_Show_Gold_%26_Silver_Now _Ready_To_Soar.html

Serpo

10th April 2014, 01:47 AM

Today KWN is putting out a special piece which has some absolutely outstanding silver charts that were sent to us by David P. out of Europe. These are charts that the big bullion banks follow closely in the gold and silver markets, as well as big money and savvy professionals. David lays out the roadmap for a stunning advance in the price of silver, and also reveals some fascinating points about this bull market in silver.Since the high in 2011, silver has gone through a major correction. Silver is roughly 60% off the 2011 high. This may sound extreme but for silver this decline is just a normal move in its bull market. The first big decline was from $8.40 to $5.40 back in 2004 -- that represented a 35% plunge. The next major pullback took place in 2008, when silver collapsed from $21 to $8.40 -- this, like the recent decline, represented a 60% plunge in price....

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/10_Shocking_Charts_Show_Silver_Set_For_A_Staggerin g_$70_Surge_files/KWN%20I%204%3A10%3A2014.jpg

Again, this type of move would not be extreme because it reveals how violent advances and declines in the silver market have been up to now. If you also consider that silver is now at the most oversold level in history (see bottom indicator in the chart below), the rally from these depressed levels should be stunning. Another interesting formation to watch is the possible flag pattern (highlighted below):

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/10_Shocking_Charts_Show_Silver_Set_For_A_Staggerin g_$70_Surge_files/KWN%20II%204%3A10%3A2014.jpg

Silver will be advancing from a very solid base, and a breakout to the upside from this pattern would easily target $90. I would just add that in a King World News article from January 5, 2012, James Turk also discussed the flag pattern in silver. He said this would be a good launching platform for silver, and also gave his long-term price target of $400 for silver in that KWN piece.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/10_Shocking_Charts_Show_Silver_Set_For_A_Staggerin g_$70_Surge.html

Neuro

10th April 2014, 12:20 PM

If one follow the trend line of the previous rally peaks, I would guesstimate a peak this time of somewhere between $120-150/oz for silver...

Libertarian_Guard

14th April 2014, 03:42 PM

Lopsided Short Positions in Silver Futures Markets Put Near-Term Damper on Rallies

So why has silver been frustratingly unable to sustain breakout rallies in recent weeks? Look no further than who has the ammunition to kill rallies in the futures market.
The Commercial net short position in silver now stands at 144.5 million ounces. According to analysis by Ted Butler, JPMorgan holds an astounding 76% of the total Commercial net short position (110 million troy ounces).

Silver is unique among all commodities in that just four institutional traders together hold short positions that are the equivalent of 110 days of world production (and the top eight traders are short nearly 160 days of silver production). In the long-term, this is a bullish setup since short positions are eventually covered (bought back). But in the near-term, the big players can sell more paper contracts into the market in order to quell rallies.

https://www.independentlivingbullion.com/news/2014/04/14/whiffs-of-manipulation-jpmorgan-holds-76-of-silver-shorts-000529

Serpo

15th July 2014, 12:36 AM

A Final Summer Low Still Ahead as Gold’s Sabbatical Rest Comes to an End & Gold Heads to $10,000+! July 15, 2014 By

(http://sdbullion.com/)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/gold-bottom-300x224.pngGold was expected to ‘begin a rise in May, continue into June, and make a TOP in June before reversing into a Final Summer Low’.
A final summer low is still ahead for Gold.
Since the bull began in 1999, every 7th year Gold takes a Sabbatical Rest. T
he first was in 2006 when gold traded to $650. Gold has completed its second cycle of sabbatical rest as of June 2014.
The coming summer low will be the FINAL ENTRY LOW and the ‘Buy-of-a- Lifetime’ before a Moon Shot to $2000 by year end!
Starting this summer Gold will begin its final 7 year cycle (2 x 3.5 years) climb to over $2000 in 2014 and $10,000+ into the year 2021!

http://us-ads.openx.net/w/1.0/ri?ts=1fHJpZD1jZmQyNjQ4Zi02NGY1LTQzYjQtYTg5OS1jMzB lMDZjNzRhNzd8cnQ9MTQwNTQwNjAyOXxhdWlkPTU0MTg1N3xhd W09RE1JRC5XRUJ8c2lkPTExNjIwOXxwdWI9MTM2MDc5fHBjPVV TRHxyYWlkPTQ3OWU1ZjE5LWMxNjMtNGNmMy05ZTY5LTdjZmEwN WUwZjQxZHx1cj13b0xlSGRFb0hH
Submitted by Bo Polny:
Dear Gold Friends,

Gold was expected to ‘begin a rise in May, continue into June, and make a TOP in June before reversing into a Final Summer Low’.
At the time of the Interview, Gold rather that immediately rising in price in May, first dropped into a June 4, 2014 low and secondary Turn Date to then began it rise into June. In other words, the Gold cycle inverted downwards for 2 weeks before the expected June rise began. Nonetheless, the June rise came. The 2 week May cycle inversion pushed the expected June top forward in time 2 weeks into mid July 2014. A final summer low is still ahead for Gold.

Starting this summer Gold will begin its final 7 year cycle (2 x 3.5 years) climb to over $2000 in 2014 and $10,000+ into the year 2021!

Since 1999 every 7th year Gold takes a Sabbatical Rest http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Sabbatical-Rest-for-Gold-1024x918.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Sabbatical-Rest-for-Gold.jpg)

The current Gold Bull began in June 1999, seven year later in early June 2006 Gold traded at $650 and exactly one year later in early June 2007 Gold was trading once again at $650; then 7 years later from June 2006 in mid June 2013 Gold traded at $1275 and then exactly one year later mid June 2014 Gold was trading once again at $1275. Gold has completed its second cycle of sabbatical rest as of June 2014. Now that Gold has made a June/July top, next expect a Drop into a Summer Final Low and ‘Buy-of-a-Lifetime’ opportunity! This summer’s Low will be a higher degree Low relative to all 2013 Lows. The expected summer Low Price target and Cycle Low Date is exclusive to subscribers. As hard as it might be to believe cycles do precede events and after the coming final summer corrective low, Gold gets back to business as its Sabbatical Rest has officially ended!

What does the COT Report Say about a Possible Summer Low? Even though Gold is up today the Commitment of Traders report for gold suggests upswing in gold is near an end, at least in the short term. The Large Speculators (dumb money) on in the largest long positing in gold going back one year, while the Commercials (smart money) on in the largest short position in gold. Either the smart money or dumb money are going to be right at this junction and the smart money (Commercials) wins again!

Expect One Final Low.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/polny.png (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/polny.png)

Feel free to share this Public Update with your friends and family!

July 13, 2014 Gold Chart http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GOLD-Chart.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GOLD-Chart.jpg)
Cycle work allowed me to called then Silver $49 top, the $1900 Gold top, the June 28, 2013 Gold BOTTOM within 2-hours, the December 31, 2013 retest and higher low.
The coming summer low will be the FINAL ENTRY LOW and the ‘Buy-of-a- Lifetime’ before a Moon Shot to $2000 by year end!
Thank you,
Bo Polny

http://www.silverdoctors.com/a-final-summer-low-still-ahead-as-golds-sabbatical-rest-comes-to-an-end-gold-heads-to-10000/

Serpo

12th August 2014, 02:46 AM

http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-a-3-year-gold-bear-market-ends-a-7-year-gold-bull-market-begins/

Serpo

8th December 2014, 08:46 PM

Marshall Swing: Silver May Dip to $8 Prior to Dollar Collapse & SuperNova Spike Through $500!

Posted on December 8, 2014 (http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-silver-may-dip-to-8-prior-to-dollar-collapse-supernova-spike-through-500/) by The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/author/the-doc/)
2 Comments (http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-silver-may-dip-to-8-prior-to-dollar-collapse-supernova-spike-through-500/#comments)
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Notice the abrupt halt to the precious metals “rally”. If the price spike was caused by enormous Speculator long buying enthusiasm, we would still be watching PM prices shoot or drift upwards. This was a Commercial exercise, pure and simple.
It is very indicative of what will happen next year on a far larger scale where Speculator longs will be pounded “in the blink of an eye” by a Commercial short covering of gargantuan proportions.
Price will descend into the abyss for moments while pre-programmed Speculator short buying eats up shorts all the way to the bottom as Commercials gladly take the longs and the temporary “losses” and then WHAM price rebounds upward just as suddenly as it dropped. But this time there will be no upper limit.
Price might just be about $14.15 (elite telegraphing the future?) this time next September when this event happens and may well dip into the $8 handle but when price rebounds minutes later it is not going to stop at $16.15 on it’s way to $100, $500, and beyond as trillions of dollars of paper fiat rush into commodities looking for a safe haven from what appears to be the repeat of the 2008 c rash.

Submitted by Marshall Swing:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cliff-edge.jpeg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cliff-edge.jpeg)
I have written for a long, long time now the goal of the Commercials and The Powers That Be which control them, is to remove all desire on the part of investors, institutions, and countries to hold physical gold. Their end is to remove the “barbarous relic” from consideration and to put absolute faith and trust into the devices of men whose desires is to control and mold the world economies into a single functioning unit (with them at the helm) and to mold all cultural and religious thought into a new age. This new age would have many benefits, for them, such as this list found on the website of GlobalResearch.ca:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-true-story-of-the-bilderberg-group-and-what-they-may-be-planning-now/13808
– “one international identify (observing) one set of universal values;”
– centralized control of world populations by “mind control;” in other words, controlling world public opinion;
– a New World Order with no middle class, only “rulers and servants (serfs),” and, of course, no democracy;
– “a zero-growth society” without prosperity or progress, only greater wealth and power for the rulers;
– manufactured crises and perpetual wars;
– absolute control of education to program the public mind and train those chosen for various roles;
– “centralized control of all foreign and domestic policies;” one size fits all globally;
– using the UN as a de facto world government imposing a UN tax on “world citizens;”
– expanding NAFTA and WTO globally;
– making NATO a world military;
– imposing a universal legal system; and
– a global “welfare state where obedient slaves will be rewarded and non-conformists targeted for extermination.”

which is an article on the Bilderberg group and its perceived goals.
I do not spend much time reading articles on Bilderberg’s or watching lengthy videos on the elite or watching the endless conspiracy documentaries but I do notice them and the congruency of goals and how that fits into the current world scene and where things have come from and where they seem to be going (my view is straight into the book of Revelation). If I had 48 hours in a day I probably would watch more of these things as I am sure these things are all happening for a reason as men try to govern themselves without God.
In the list above, we see universal values, universal legal systems, absolute control of education systems.
To do all of this requires total control over the economic system of the world and no one has that full control. Yet.
In the last couple of years we have seen issues like bank accounts in Cyprus being seized to pay outstanding bills of the country and endless articles this will be done all over the world. It is far easier to simply destroy the world’s economies, quickly, then present a new plan with a one world currency everyone can agree on rather than take decades to manipulate all the governments and their economies into the positions the elite desire. Besides, many of those elite will die in a few years/decades and not see the fruit of their labor OR they risk losing control and watching decades of manipulation go down the drain.
One way in which they are watching a rapidly approaching storm on the horizon is due to the BRICS nation’s influence and programs. These countries repeatedly balk at the Western governance and establish economic ties of their own in an effort to get away from the bondage of the U.S. Dollar. There is even a website dedicated to news about the BRICS and alternative news without Western massaging:
http://thebricspost.com/
You can definitely read news there you are not going to read in the main stream media or the financial main stream media of the West. Also, the news is contrasting whereas in the West we read negative news about China: http://news.yahoo.com/stock-futures-fall-soft-china-japan-data-124725585–finance.html (http://news.yahoo.com/stock-futures-fall-soft-china-japan-data-124725585--finance.html) and here we read positive news on the same day: http://thebricspost.com/china-exports-rise-4-7-to-211-66-bn-in-nov/#.VIXpdzHF-pk and also states the Chinese have a 3 quarter trade surplus of $332.5 billion. Why does the article from the West not mention that?
Elsewhere in the West, we have the illustrious Mario Draghi head of the ECB telling us gold buying is out of consideration: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/draghi-we-have-nothing-fear-gold-buying-itselfhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFSOPsuGhLE
“ECB head Mario Draghi made it clear where the real battle is taking place in the world this morning. When asked what form QE would take, his response was to the point… “On what sorts of assets should be included in QE… we discussed all assets BUT gold” and gold dropped, right on cue.”
It’s not much of a crash, but then the next day gold crashed. Then rebounded quickly.
Yeah, let’s take that QE and buy the bad assets of the banks like toxic mortgage bascked securities but not gold, or silver.
If you know where to look you see event after event happening between the BRICS countries and those who also want to be in the BRICS:
http://thebricspost.com/china-to-push-strategic-partnership-with-russia-foreign-ministry/#.VIXuaDHF-pk
Are these countries following the advice of Mario Draghi? NO.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/massive-indian-silver-imports-setting-up-for-another-big-record-year/
http://www.silverdoctors.com/chinese-gold-demand-twice-as-much-as-official-reported-figures/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/putin-prepares-economic-war-buys-stunning-55-tonnes-gold-q3
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-22/india-gold-demand-surges-450-and-bank-russia-demand-15-year-high?page=1
Interesting is the one chart in the last article showing gold demand far outstripping production!
And all the while price is going down for several years now. Make sense? No.
Now you have seen the evidence, you have to decide what it means for you, your family, friends.
In silver, everyone sees the 15 day 30 minute interval silver chart below and notices the crevasse that looks like a major fault line dividing the land. What do the numbers say happened? Notice what appears to be a major short covering in the Large Speculator of 8,332 contracts. Now, notice what you DO NOT SEE!
What you do not see is a corresponding long sale on the part of the Commercials that would indicate it was the Large Speculator who initiated the descent to $14.15
Quote from last week:
The reality is the metals do not crash like this, then rebound, to find out it is the work of the speculators going long that have caused such a thing. Only the Commercials can cause a crash like that and only they can cause a rebound like that. I have little doubt they destroyed new Speculator longs in the crash (while the Speculators were taking shorts as fast as they could), then went long on the way and at the bottom, then destroyed the Speculator shorts in a rapid rise in what gave the appearance of a strong LONG rally (only it is the commercial longs and HFT causing the “rally”).
So, obviously, the numbers we see on the COT are obfuscated so I make a note to self and do some math and chalk this up to a repositioning exercise by the Commercials instead of believing it is Speculators who decided to take my advice and cover their shorts, take massive profits, and get out of the game of the paper casino.
Notice the abrupt halt to the “rally”. If this was caused by enormous Speculator enthusiasm long buying that the Spring thaw was starting early, we would still be watching PM prices shoot or drift upwards and they are not. This was a Commercial exercise, pure and simple.
It is very (future-ly) “reminiscent” or indicative of what is going to happen next year on a far larger scale where Speculator longs will be pounded “in the blink of an eye” by a Commercial short covering of gargantuan proportions and price will descend into the abyss for moments while preprogrammed Speculator short buying eats up shorts all the way to the bottom as Commercials gladly take the longs and the temporary “losses” and then WHAM price rebounds upward just as suddenly as it dropped. But this time there will be no upper limit.
Price might just be about $14.15 (elite telegraphing the future?) this time next September when this event happens and may well dip into the $8 handle but when price rebounds minutes later it is not going to stop at $16.15 on it’s way to $100, $500, and beyond as trillions of dollars of paper fiat rush into commodities looking for a safe haven from what appears to be the repeat of the 2008 c rash.
The entire COMEX paper silver market is on $12.2 Billion. What happens when a $Trillion USD try to get in there?
Only this next time the crash will be far worse than what appeared manifest in 2008 as it is geared to enslave the entire world in a derivative first, then bond crash second securing two goals of wiping out debt of Western countries and wiping out fortunes of all the people thereby ensuring enslavement in the new one world governing system.
What we see in the silver COT are a significant total of long purchases by the Producer Merchant and the Swap Dealer and those short coverings by the Speculators so what we are seeing is the aftermath of what happened not what actually happened. With a dip and rebound like that you only get the end view and not the full events, in the numbers.
In gold, we get the rest of the story. Looking at the Commercials selling massive long positions (but where are their new shorts on the price rise?), one might theorize somewhere hidden in the crash. It is not so. They bought longs heavily near the bottom and sold them massively in the rebound for great profit. They will not sell next year in the crash. This is just an exercise to perfect their crashing abilities.
Now look at the disaggregated COT which reveals the Commercials buying shorts!
Makes no sense to buy them low at the bottom, does it?
What we see is the aftermath of a massive exercise meant to square up their positions and maintain very tight control over price and profit yet they did not let price run up so high as to make the Speculators think they have lost control of trying to defeat the Commericals at their own short game.
It is all MIND CONTROL.
You take the puppet, attach strings to the head, arms, hands BUT you also attach strings to the legs and feet so you control this puppet (Speculators) from both above and below. It is a fully manipulated, controlled fiat paper casino.
Anyone who wants to beat it should sell all their speculator shorts right now and buy physical metal!
Reporting from the Wilderness of Southern Illinois, stay thirsty for physical metal, my friends,
Marshall
https://www.facebook.com/marshall.swing.9

http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-silver-may-dip-to-8-prior-to-dollar-collapse-supernova-spike-through-500/

Serpo

8th December 2014, 08:50 PM

Silver Open Interest Anomaly Posted on December 8, 2014 (http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-open-interest-anomaly/) by The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/author/the-doc/)
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(http://sdbullion.com/)

Silver’s open interest is roughly 175,000 contracts, which is about 875,000,000 ounces of paper silver.
At market price that is about $13 Billion, or only about 15% of what the Fed created each month during QE3.
It would take very little digital currency, relatively speaking, to buy all the open interest, or to crush prices via naked sales of paper contracts. Stacks of physical silver are much safer and far more “real.”

Submitted by Deviant Investor (http://deviantinvestor.com/6592/silver-anomaly/):
Each week the CFTC publishes data from futures and options contracts for many commodities. Open interest shows the number of open contracts – one long for each short – in a particular commodity, say silver.
Usually price direction is consistent with open interest trend.
See the 14 year graph of open interest and prices in the silver market. Prices are shown on a log scale with silver prices in black, while open interest (per CFTC) is shown on the left in red.
http://deviantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/E-Si-OI-550x379.jpg (http://deviantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/E-Si-OI.jpg)
Note the similarity in the trends for open interest and prices from January 2001 through the end of 2011.
To more clearly analyze these trends, use a moving average for price and open interest to smooth the graphs. Now graph price and open interest (below) from January 2001 to December 2011. Excel calculated the statistical correlation at +0.56.
http://deviantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/E-Si-OI-early-550x381.jpg (http://deviantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/E-Si-OI-early.jpg)
Now graph price and open interest (below) from December 2011 through November 2014. It looks rather different. Excel calculated the statistical correlation at – 0.59. Generally speaking, the correlation between open interest and price reversed at the open interest low on 12/06/2011, which was quite close to the weekly price low at 12/30/2011.
http://deviantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/E-Si-OI-later-550x393.jpg (http://deviantinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/E-Si-OI-later.jpg)
What changed? I don’t know, but some possibilities are:

A large buyer has aggressively added to futures contracts in the last several years and has remained long instead of selling and accepting losses as prices dropped.
There was clear recognition that massive debt, bond monetization, QE, and “Operation Twist” would eventually devalue all currencies so consequently “big money” began moving into silver futures as an alternative.
Germany requested the return (a few months later) of her gold from the NY Federal Reserve which encouraged insiders to buy silver futures.
High Frequency Trading and market manipulation which attempted to suppress the prices for gold and silver, levitate the S&P, and sell the “economic recovery” story caused the anomaly.
Something else.

Bill Holter (http://blog.milesfranklin.com/category/authors/bill-holter) has speculated that the Chinese, or their agents, have been buying silver contracts even as prices declined, in contrast to normal “trader” behavior.
If you have a good theory for what appears to be a clear anomaly, then please respond with a comment. In the meantime it looks like strange market behavior – perhaps one more example of the dominance of High Frequency Trading over human decision making.
Thought: Open interest is roughly 175,000 contracts, which is about 875,000,000 ounces of paper silver. At market price that is about $13 Billion, or only about 15% of what the Fed created each month during QE3. It would take very little digital currency, relatively speaking, to buy all the open interest, or to crush prices via naked sales of paper contracts. Stacks of physical silver are much safer and far more “real.”

Gary Christenson

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-open-interest-anomaly/#more-49031

Serpo

8th December 2014, 08:52 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YWMYG5CLGc

Serpo

8th December 2014, 10:01 PM

“With central banks around the world trying to devalue their currencies, the US dollar stands as the cleanest shirt in the closet of dirty laundry. Some of the new reports emerging about the US economy are less than bullish. This has holders of US dollars thinking about a currency that might be stronger than the dollar. Thus, one hears words like “get out of dollars, get into gold,” and after years of bad-mouthing gold, the yellow metal is coming into acceptance again.

Below, an up to date P&F chart of gold. At 1210 we have a bull signal with an upside target projection at 1340. Subscribers who don’t own any physical gold should now move to make their first purchase. I’ll now stick my neck out and claim that the long awaited gold base is completed.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/12/9_Richard_Russell_On_God,_Gold_%26_Historic_Tradin g_In_Markets_files/KWN%20Russell%2012%3A9%3A2014.jpg

Gold is holding above 1200 as I write. High volatility in gold has caused traders of paper gold to pull their hair out. Those of us who have held physical gold have had little to worry about.

........................................

It’s late 1957. The bull market had started up in June 1949. Suddenly a recession starts in late 1957. Sentiment among the crowd turns black bearish. The market sinks into a severe correction. I don't believe that the bull market is over. People call me an idiot, but I am convinced that the bull market has a lot further to run. The reason is that the bull market never produced a third speculative phase. I write an article published in Barron’s to the effect that I expect a third highly speculative phase to appear ahead. People remain stubbornly bearish. They tell me I’m out of my mind. But I know that the market normally has a severe correction following the second phase of a bull market and just preceding the third speculative and final phase.

The Dow sinks to 419 in October and then turns up in the face of the severe recession. Investors are actually angry. How can the stock market be rising when there is a recession in progress? The stock market pushes relentlessly higher. My bullish Barron’s article causes a sensation. A little ad that I place in Barron’s brings in 300 subscriptions. Overnight I start up Dow Theory Letters. Within a week I am in business!

Now let’s return to the present. I believe a great speculative third phase lies ahead for this bull market. The coming third phase will see the stock market climb far higher than even the bulls think possible.

The question is: is it too late to enter the stock market? In the third phase of a bull market, usually more money is made than in the first two phases combined. Thus, I foresee the possibility of large gains if a third and final speculative phase is ahead. My advice is that you assume an initial position in DIA or SPY on any weakness.

What will be the leverage that will drive up the stock market in the coming third speculative third phase? The answer is human hysteria and greed. And never before seen, sky-high price-to-earnings ratios.

This piece may sound like a reversal of thinking on my part. But it is based on a weekend of deep thinking and memories of 1957. As for timing, I believe the coming third phase could last until 2016. It will have the effect of placing the United States as the continuing world leader. During the coming third phase, I expect new discoveries and inventions to excite mankind. Two stocks that I own in anticipation of the coming wildly speculative third phase are WR Berkley and Berkshire Hathaway. I continue to like physical gold and silver.

........................................

I’ve been writing Dow Theory Letters since 1958 and as you’ve probably guessed, I am not the same man in my nineties that I was back in 1958 when I was in my thirties. Subscribers have undoubtedly noticed that I write a great deal about spirituality, and that I frequently quote Emmet Fox. As I see him, Fox is a genius mystic, an historian and a great servant to mankind. In my reports, I have always attempted to reveal my innermost thoughts to my subscribers. I started out as agnostic, and to be honest, an atheist. But events during WWII and since have served to change my mind. I write what I’m thinking about and what I’m struggling with. And the majority of my subscribers don’t seem to mind (actually many of them like it).

I often ask myself whether I am doing any good in my stay on this good earth. If I have served to guide some of my subscribers toward the spiritual path, I will consider that my visit to the earth on this round will have been worth it. In closing, I’ll say that the most precious commodity on this earth, the most precious commodity that anyone can have, is peace of mind. The antithesis of peace of mind is fear. Fear is the curse of mankind. Man’s greatest task on earth is to equalize or get rid of fear. The path to getting rid of fear is learning to love yourself.

Words from Emmet Fox’s Sermon on the Mount:

The old saying, “God has a plan for every man, and he has one for you,” is quite correct. God has glorious and wonderful plans for every one of us. He has planned a splendid career, full of interest, life and joy, for each, and if our lives are dull, or restricted, or squalid, that is not his fault, but ours.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/12/9_Richard_Russell_On_God,_Gold_%26_Historic_Tradin g_In_Markets.html

Serpo

9th December 2014, 05:06 PM

Egon von Greyerz: “Eric, we are seeing a very nice move in gold and silver today. I have consistently said that the big move we are going to see for the next few years would start before 2015. The start of this move beginning in December seems perfect. I’m not surprised at the action at all and the breakout is clear....

“This advance will go a lot further on the upside, and this is happening at the same time that the stock markets are coming off a little bit and more importantly the dollar turning down. That’s very significant because I’ve always said that a move up in gold will be linked to a move down in the dollar.

It certainly looks as though the dollar is turning down here and this should be the beginning of a very big move to the downside for the dollar. So this is going to be the start of an exciting period for the precious metals that KWN readers around the world will enjoy for the next few years.

Eric, last week I was speaking at the Mines & Money Conference in London last week. It was interesting because I met with one of the wealthy family offices who had tens of millions of dollars of gold with one of the major Swiss banks. I asked him if he understood the risk and he said, ‘Well, there’s no risk because the gold is segregated.’

I then told him about the many experiences we have had with Swiss banks where the gold we tried to transfer from Swiss banks was not there. Clients received new bars because the gold they deposited that was supposed to be segregated was no longer in the vaults where it was supposed to be safely stored.

But there are other problems associated with being in the banking system that involve major risks. To leave large assets with a bank today, whether it’s gold, silver, or securities, involves massive counterparty risks. Take the largest two Swiss banks for example -- UBS and Credit Suisse -- they have a combined balance sheet of about 3 trillion Swiss francs. Well, that’s 5-times Swiss GDP. That means these two banks are too big for the country.

If you combine all the Swiss banks’ balance sheets it totals 7-times Swiss GDP. That’s on the same level as Cyprus and we all remember what happened with the Cyprus disaster that led to the bail-ins. We have discussed it many times, Eric, the fact that more bail-ins will come in the West. This will happen in many countries because when they have a banking system that is so big, bail-ins are the only way to solve the problem because the governments can’t solve it when you are talking about 7-times GDP.

But the balance sheets of the banks is nothing compared to the derivatives exposure they have. If you take UBS and Credit Suisse, they have a total of 83 trillion Swiss francs in derivatives. That is a staggering 135-times the entire annual GDP of Switzerland. That is insane. This is why it is so incredibly risky to be in the banking system.

But it’s not only the Swiss who are in this position. If you look at the 4 largest U.S. banks, they have a combined derivatives position of about $230 trillion. This is about 14-times U.S. GDP. And when I say $230 trillion, you have to remember that is valuing total outstanding worldwide derivatives at about $600 trillion. That is the revised figure the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) released 2 or 3 years ago. But I believe the total derivatives exposure is $1.2 quadrillion. That means the U.S. bank exposure is probably twice the $230 trillion figure.

And the risk today that counterparties will default on their derivatives is enormous. This is a world with debt of $270 trillion and $1.2 quadrillion of derivatives. So the risk of another Lehman catastrophe that leads to a worldwide domino effect is massive. And this could implode the entire global financial system.

In the midst of this massive bank leverage there are powerful deflationary forces that are building. This is putting pressures on the global economy and the banking system. So we can’t be too far from a massive money printing program. Central banks know that a deflationary implosion would mean the end of the banking system. All of this will be incredibly bullish for gold and silver going forward as well as the shares.”

Greyerz added: “At the Mines & Money Conference I had a fireside chat with Frank Giustra, who is a billionaire in the mining sector and a master of timing. He is absolutely convinced that this is the time to buy the mining shares of well-financed and well-managed companies. He has now invested a major amount of his capital in that sector and I agree with that.

Gold and silver look extremely good now both technically and fundamentally. And when you look at how quickly the entire global financial system can implode because of the immense derivatives nightmare, I understand Giustra’s massive bet on gold and silver prices going significantly higher. I also believe, like Giustra, that high quality mining companies can go up 10-times in price or even more in the years to come.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/12/9_Billionaire_Frank_Giustras_Massive_Bet_On_Gold_% 26_Silver.html

Serpo

9th December 2014, 05:37 PM

Chris Powell: Gold market manipulation: Why, how, and how long?For example, the Chinese newspaper World News Journal wrote: "The United States and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2014-12-09 22:22. Section: The Basics (http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/23) | Documentation (http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21) Remarks by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. German Precious Metal Society and the Foundation for Liberty and Ratio
Hotel Bayerischer Hof, Munich, Germany
Tuesday, December 9, 2014 Thank you for coming here tonight even though I can speak only English. I'm afraid that when it comes to German I don't know scheisse. Maybe I have an excuse. Mark Twain tried very hard to learn German and wrote afterward that German should be classified with the dead languages because only the dead had the time to learn it. Still, I'm really glad to be here, since at least many of you speak English as well as German and since I've just come from London, where hardly anyone speaks English. For the first 48 hours I was in London the only person I heard speaking English was the hotel desk clerk, and she didn't seem too happy about it. The first time I heard English on the street it was from a guy who recognized me as an American rube and asked me for money. Yes, in London only the panhandlers speak English. ... Dispatch continues below ...
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But seriously, folks -- You didn't come here for my travelogue. So here goes. * * * Most financial journalism and most academic teaching maintain that gold is at best a quaint antique. But gold not only remains money but may again become the best and most important money. Even more than this, gold is in fact the secret knowledge of the financial universe, a secret desperately concealed by central banks. Gold already is so important that Western central banks -- particularly the U.S. Treasury and its Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Federal Reserve, and allied central banks -- rig the gold market every day, even hour by hour, to control and usually suppress gold's price. Why do Western central banks rig the gold market? It's because gold is a powerful competitive international currency that, if allowed to function in a free market, will determine the value of other currencies, the level of interest rates, and the value of government bonds. Gold's performance is usually the opposite of the performance of government currencies and bonds. So central banks fight gold to defend their currencies and bonds. The problem is that the tactics of central banks in their war against gold affect far more than gold; they affect markets generally and eventually destroy markets generally. This destruction of markets now has a name, a name used even by former members of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. That name is "financial repression." There is much academic literature confirming gold's influence on currencies, interest rates, and government bonds throughout history. Prominent in this literature is the study written by Harvard University economics professor Lawrence Summers and University of Michigan economics professor Robert Barsky and published in August 1985 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a study titled "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard." As with all the documents I'll cite today, the Summers and Barsky study is posted at my organization's Internet site, GATA.org: http://www.gata.org/node/1373 Summers went on to become deputy treasury secretary and then treasury secretary of the United States and president of Harvard University and recently almost became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, so his study with Barsky about gold's influence on currencies, interest rates, and bond prices may be good authority. The Summers and Barsky study implied that governments could achieve their ideal of low interest rates and strong government bond prices by controlling the price of gold. As it turns out, controlling the currency markets long has been the most efficient mechanism of imperialism. There is much history of this as well. Rigging the currency markets was the primary mechanism by which Nazi Germany expropriated occupied Europe during World War II. Expropriation by force of arms was actually only a small part of the Nazi conquest. The rigging of the currency markets -- that is, the gross distortion of exchange rates in Nazi Germany's favor -- turned every citizen of an occupied country into an agent of the occupation every time he used money. This currency market rigging directed all production in the occupied countries into Nazi Germany and blocked any return flow of production. It enabled Nazi Germany to run without consequence the same sort of fantastic trade deficit run in recent years by the United States. The United States learned all about the Nazi expropriation of Europe through currency market rigging because it was documented by the November 1943 edition of the U.S. War Department's monthly intelligence letter, Tactical and Technical Trends: http://www.gata.org/node/10457 Nazi Germany's manipulation of currency markets is also described in detail in the 2005 history "Hitler's Beneficiaries" by Gotz Aly: http://llco.org/hitlers-beneficiaries-2005-by-gotz-aly How do Western central banks and particularly the U.S. government rig the gold market? They used to do it conventionally and in the open by dishoarding their gold reserves at strategic moments, and then by dishoarding their gold reserves regularly, more often, even every day, as the United States, United Kingdom, and seven of their Western European allies did during the 1960s through a public operation called the London Gold Pool. The London Gold Pool held the gold price at $35 per ounce until it collapsed in March 1968 under rising demand that drained the U.S. gold reserve from 25,000 tonnes down closer to the 8,133 tonnes officially reported today: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool After the collapse of the London Gold Pool the United States and its allies regrouped to decide how to rig the gold market surreptitiously -- not just with dishoarding but also with the so-called leasing of gold; with the purchase and sale of gold derivatives, including futures and options; and, more recently, with high-frequency trading undertaken through investment houses that are happy to serve as government's intermediaries in the gold market, since they can front-run government trades. When the rigging is done surreptitiously like this, much less central bank gold has to be dishoarded and the dishoarding that is done has far more suppressive influence on the price. But Western central bank market rigging goes far beyond gold. In an essay published in 2001 and titled "The Debasement of World Currency -- It Is Inflation, But Not as We Know It" -- http://www.gata.org/node/8303 -- the British economist Peter Warburton discerned that central banks were using investment banks to issue derivatives throughout the commodity futures markets to siphon away money that was seeking a hedge against inflation. That is, derivatives divert money from the hoarding of real goods, hoarding that would drive up consumer price indexes and make inflation even more obvious to the markets and the public. Most of these derivatives are essentially naked short positions that cannot be covered. Warburton concluded that the prerequisite of a hedge against monetary debasement would have to be some asset that was not attached to a futures market, since anyone with access to enough money can control any futures market, and central banks have access to infinite money. Inflation hedges Warburton suggested included farmland and clean water supplies. For as the saying goes: "The futures markets are not manipulated; the futures markets are the manipulation." This market rigging by central banks and their agents explains the great disparagement of gold today: that, despite its tremendous price increase over the last 15 years, gold has not kept up with inflation since the metal's last great rise around 1980. Somehow no one who disparages gold asks why it has not kept up with inflation. The answer is that gold derivatives have created a vast imaginary supply of gold for which delivery has not been demanded, since most gold investors choose to leave their gold purchases on deposit with the bullion banks that sold them the imaginary gold. As a result the world now has a fractional-reserve gold banking system that is leveraged in the extreme. Yes, all commodity futures markets have created paper promises of supply that could not be covered by real product and have been settled in cash. But most commodity markets are for goods that eventually are delivered and consumed to a great extent. Gold is different, for gold is not consumed but rather hoarded, as a means of exchange, as money, even as most gold purchased in the futures markets is never delivered at all but rather left on deposit with those financial institutions that purport to sell it. This system has produced a very disproportionate amount of imaginary, elastic, but undeliverable supply, even as people buy gold precisely because they assume that its supply is not elastic, that its supply is limited to total past production plus annual mine production. That assumption is a terrible mistake. While the principle of most gold investment analysis is "You can't print gold," "paper gold" can be printed to infinity just like regular government currency -- and indeed it has been printed practically to infinity. You can get an idea of the vast imaginary supply of gold by reviewing the incomprehensibly huge gold and interest rate derivative positions attributed to the U.S. investment bank JPMorganChase in the reports of the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency. These derivative positions are almost certainly not JPMorganChase's own positions at all but, as GATA consultant Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics in Toronto has written, rather U.S. government positions arranged through MorganChase: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1249407911.php As John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, wrote last month: http://www.tocqueville.com/insights/monetary-tectonics "The modern-day central banker trades with counterparties that are giant commercial banks with derivative books of disturbing scale and complexity. It seems impossible that these commercial exposures could be constructed and maintained without the knowledge and complicity of the official sector. For example, Deutsche Bank, already a defendant in a thousand lawsuits, claims derivative exposure that is 20 times the gross domestic product of Germany and five times that of the entire Eurozone. It is not a great leap to suggest that central bank traders and their megabank opposites -- spawn of the same gene pool, schooled in the same institutions, career paths intertwined, frequenters of the same conferences, and just a speed-dial away -- are ideologically indistinguishable and intellectually and morally corrupt in equal proportion." After all, the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund is expressly authorized by law, the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, as amended, to trade secretly in all markets, including the gold market, on the U.S. government's behalf. And the law expressly exempts the ESF from answering to anyone but the treasury secretary and the president: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-inde... (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-index.aspx) Gold market expert Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group testified to a hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on March 25, 2010, that the ratio of "paper gold" to real metal in the so-called London physical market may be as high as 100 to 1: http://www.gata.org/node/8478 In January 2013 a report by the Reserve Bank of India estimated the ratio of paper gold to real gold at 92 to 1: http://www.gata.org/node/12088 CPM Group's Christian described the manufacture of "paper gold" in his essay "Bullion Banking Explained" published in 2000: http://www.gata.org/node/8627 Some international investment houses are on the short end of this enormous leverage and are existentially vulnerable to a short squeeze. It is not likely that they would put themselves in such a position without assurances of emergency support from central banks -- and indeed the investment houses have received such assurances many times in public statements by central bankers. For there are many official admissions of gold market rigging. These include statements by four former chairmen of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Alan Greenspan, Paul Volcker, Arthur Burns, and William McChesney Martin); the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee; declassified U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and State Department records, including one that cites the necessity for the U.S. government to remain "the masters of gold" -- http://www.zerohedge.com/article/declassified-state-dept-data-highlights... (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/declassified-state-dept-data-highlights-global-high-level-arrangement-remain-masters-gold) http://www.scribd.com/doc/20215562/Gold-Telegram -- statements by central bankers from other countries, including three officials of the Bank for International Settlements; and documents from the BIS and the International Monetary Fund. For example: -- In testimony to Congress in July 1998, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan declared that "central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." Thus Greenspan confirmed that the purpose of gold leasing was not what was usually claimed -- to earn central banks a little money on their supposedly dead asset in their vaults -- but rather to suppress the monetary metal's price: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm -- In January 2012 former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker admitted to the German financial journalist Lars Schall, who is here tonight, that central banks need to suppress the gold price to stabilize exchange rates at what he called a "critical point": http://www.gata.org/node/10923 Volcker already had written in his memoirs that in 1973 as a U.S. Treasury Department official he advocated gold price suppression: http://www.gata.org/node/8209 http://www.gata.org/files/VolckerMemoirs.pdf -- In 2009 a remarkable 16-page memorandum was discovered in the archive of the late Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin. The memorandum is dated April 5, 1961, and is titled "U.S. Foreign Exchange Operations: Needs and Methods." The memo is a detailed plan of surreptitious intervention by the U.S. government to rig the currency and gold markets to support the U.S. dollar and to conceal, obscure, or even falsify U.S. government records and reports so that the rigging might not be discovered. This document remains on the Internet site of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/historical/martin/23_06_19610405.pdf For safety's sake it is also posted at GATA's Internet site: http://www.gata.org/files/Martin-WilliamMcChesny-MarketManipulationPlan.... (http://www.gata.org/files/Martin-WilliamMcChesny-MarketManipulationPlan.pdf) -- In a letter to President Gerald Ford in June 1975, Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns reported a secret agreement with the German Bundesbank to obstruct market pricing for gold. Burns wrote to the president: "I have a secret understanding in writing with the Bundesbank, concurred in by Mr. Schmidt" -- Helmut Schmidt, West Germany's chancellor at the time -- "that Germany will not buy gold, either from the market or from another government, at a price above the official price of $42.22 per ounce." Burns added, "I am convinced that by far the best position for us to take at this time is to resist arrangements that provide wide latitude for central banks and governments to purchase gold at a market-related price." The Burns letter is posted at GATA's Internet site here: http://www.gata.org/files/ArthurBurnsLetterToPresidentFord-June1975.pdf -- In June 2004 the deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, Oleg Mozhaiskov, told a conference of the London Bullion Market Association in Moscow that he suspected the United States of suppressing the gold price. Mozhaiskov mentioned the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, the only words he spoke in English, though at that time GATA had never knowingly had any contact with anyone in Russia: http://www.gata.org/node/11723 -- A president of the Netherlands Central Bank who was also president of the Bank for International Settlements, Jelle Zijlstra, wrote in his memoirs in 1992 that the gold price was suppressed at the behest of the United States: http://www.gata.org/node/11304 -- William R. White, the director of the monetary and economic department of the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks, told a BIS conference in Basel, Switzerland, in June 2005 that a primary purpose of international central bank cooperation is "the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful": http://www.gata.org/node/4279 -- The Bank for International Settlements actually advertises to potential central bank members that its services include secret interventions in the gold market. Here's a slide from a PowerPoint presentation the bank made to prospective central bank members in at BIS headquarters in Basel in June 2008: http://www.gata.org/node/11012 http://www.gata.org/files/BISAdvertisesGoldInterventions.pdf -- Indeed, according to its annual report last year, the BIS functions largely as a gold banking and gold market intervention service for its member central banks. On Page 110 of the report the BIS says: "The bank transacts foreign exchange and gold on behalf of its customers, thereby providing access to a large liquidity base in the context of, for example, regular rebalancing of reserve portfolios or major changes in reserve currency allocations. The foreign exchange services of the bank encompass spot transactions in major currencies and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as well as swaps, outright forwards, options, and dual currency deposits (DCDs). In addition, the bank provides gold services such as buying and selling, sight accounts, fixed-term deposits, earmarked accounts, upgrading and refining, and location exchanges." The only point of central banks trading in gold derivatives is to affect the price. See: http://www.gata.org/node/12717 -- Secret gold market interventions by the BIS have been going on for a long time. A long article in Harper's magazine in 1983, based on a seemingly unprecedented interview with BIS officials, disclosed that the BIS was constantly intervening in the gold market in secret: http://www.gata.org/node/8773 -- Perhaps most incriminating is the secret March 1999 staff report of the International Monetary Fund that GATA obtained in December 2012. The secret IMF report says Western central banks conceal their gold swaps and loans to facilitate their secret interventions in the gold and currency markets: http://www.gata.org/node/12016 http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldDataMemo--3-10-1999.pdf Some records of surreptitious intervention in the gold market by Western central banks are quite current. The director of market operations for the Banque de France, Alexandre Gautier, told the London Bullion Market Association’s meeting in Rome in September 2013 that the French central bank trades gold for its own account "nearly on a daily basis" and is "active in the gold market for other central banks and official institutions." http://www.gata.org/node/13373 Speaking again to the LBMA, meeting last month in Lima, Peru, Gautier said central banks lately have been managing their gold reserves "more actively," and the slides he presented indicated that this more active management is undertaken mainly through gold swaps, a mechanism of surreptitious market intervention. In what appeared to be a reference to the recent clamor for gold repatriation in Germany and Switzerland, Gautier cautioned his co-conspirators at the LBMA that what he called "auditability" is "becoming a crucial issue" for central bank gold reserves. http://gata.org/node/14716 -- The recent participation of the United States in gold market manipulation was confirmed by a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Kevin M. Warsh, in a letter written in September 2009 denying GATA's request for access to the Fed's gold records. Warsh wrote that among the records the Fed was refusing to show GATA were records of gold swap arrangements between the Fed and foreign banks: http://www.gata.org/node/7819 http://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedResponse-09-17-2009.pdf In commentary published in The Wall Street Journal in December 2011 Warsh wrote about what he called "financial repression" by governments. "Policy makers," Warsh wrote, "are finding it tempting to pursue 'financial repression' -- suppressing market prices that they don't like." Warsh added, "Efforts to manage and manipulate asset prices are not new." http://www.gata.org/node/10839 I later reached Warsh by e-mail and asked him if he had learned about "financial repression" through his service on the Federal Reserve Board. I also asked him if he would identify the asset prices under manipulation by policy makers. He cordially wished me a nice day. The government of China knows all about the gold price suppression scheme and isn't afraid to talk about it. The U.S. State Department diplomatic cables obtained by the Wikileaks organization and published in 2011 included cables from the U.S. embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington that were translations of reports from the Chinese government-controlled news media. These translations included stories and commentaries about gold price suppression by the United States.

Serpo

9th December 2014, 05:37 PM

They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the United States in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi."
So not only does the Chinese government know all about the gold price suppression scheme -- the U.S. government knows that China knows:
http://www.gata.org/node/10380
http://www.gata.org/node/10416
Many people in the gold business in China also know about gold price suppression by the U.S. government and its allies.
For example, thanks to GATA consultant Koos Jansen, now market analyst for Bullion Star in Singapore, last January GATA published the remarks of the president of China's gold mining association, Sun Zhaoxue, to a financial conference in Shanghai, in which he said gold price suppression is U.S. government policy to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the ongoing international currency war:
http://www.gata.org/node/13446
And last December GATA distributed commentary by Zhang Jie, deputy editor of the Chinese publication Global Finance and a consultant to the China Gold Association, who said the U.S. Federal Reserve manipulates the gold market to protect the U.S. dollar's standing as the world reserve currency. Zhang said:
"Through continuous gold leasing the gold in the market can be circulated and produce derivatives, creating more and more paper gold. This is very significant for the United States. Gold leasing is a major tool for the Federal Reserve and other central banks in the West to secretly control and regulate the gold market, creating gold credit derivatives and global credit conflict":
http://www.gata.org/node/13314
The U.S. government's public archives are actually full of records documenting the government's longstanding objective of removing gold from the world financial system to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.
Perhaps most descriptive are the minutes of a meeting at the U.S. State Department in April 1974 between Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and his assistant undersecretary of state for economic and business affairs, Thomas O. Enders.
The meeting addresses the growing desire among Western European countries to revalue their gold reserves upward, thereby increasing gold's role in the international financial system and threatening the dollar's status:
http://www.gata.org/node/13310
Secretary Kissinger asks: "Why is it against our interest to have gold in the system?"
Assistant Undersecretary Enders answers him.
Mr. Enders: It's against our interest to have gold in the system because for it to remain there it would result in it being evaluated periodically. Although we have still some substantial gold holdings -- about $11 billion -- a larger part of the official gold in the world is concentrated in Western Europe. This gives them the dominant position in world reserves and the dominant means of creating reserves. We've been trying to get away from that into a system in which we can control. ...
Secretary Kissinger: But that's a balance-of-payments problem.
Mr. Enders: Yes, but it's a question of who has the most leverage internationally. If they have the reserve-creating instrument, by having the largest amount of gold and the ability to change its price periodically, they have a position relative to ours of considerable power. For a long time we had a position relative to theirs of considerable power because we could change gold almost at will. This is no longer possible -- no longer acceptable. Therefore, we have gone to Special Drawing Rights, which is also equitable and could take account of some of the less-developed-country interests and which spreads the power away from Europe. And it's more rational in ...
Secretary Kissinger: "More rational" being defined as being more in our interests or what?
Mr. Enders: More rational in the sense of more responsive to worldwide needs -- but also more in our interest. ...
So there you have it. Whoever has the most gold can control its valuation -- and implicitly the valuation of every currency -- and thereby create the most "reserves," the most money.
Of course money is power and infinite money is infinite power. The interest of the United States, at least as it was perceived at that meeting at the State Department in April 1974, was to dominate the world through the power over money creation and currency valuation.
Documentation continues to be discovered. A few weeks ago the founder of the market research company Nanex in Illinois, Eric Scott Hunsader, called attention to documents filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States.
In its filing with the CFTC, the CME Group reports that it is giving volume trading discounts to central banks for trading all major futures contracts in the United States -- financial futures, metal futures, and agricultural futures:
http://www.gata.org/node/14385
In its filing with the SEC the CME Group reports that its customers include "governments and central banks":
http://www.gata.org/node/14411
The CME Group letter to the CFTC justifies secret futures trading by central banks throughout the currency and commodity markets as a matter of adding "liquidity" that will benefit all traders. But "liquidity" here is actually an ocean, for central banks can create infinite money, and no ordinary investor can trade against a central bank.
That central banks and governments are secretly trading all major futures markets in the United States signifies that central bank intervention in markets is now likely comprehensive -- that there really are no markets anymore, just interventions, that the main objective of central banking now is to prevent markets from happening at all,and that the market economy that has been the engine of progress and democracy has been destroyed.
This is the financial news story of the century.
GATA has sent all these documents to major financial news organizations throughout the world. But no mainstream financial news organization has yet reported about them and what they mean.
There are many, many more records about the Western government policy of gold price suppression. They are posted in the "Documentation" section of GATA's Internet site --
http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21
-- but the records located by GATA are almost certainly only a small fraction of the documents that exist.
These records are not mere speculation and "conspiracy theory." They are the records of decades-long Western government policy conducted almost entirely in secret.
But there is nothing wrong with the word "conspiracy" here.
Conspiracy occurs when people meet in secret to decide and pursue a course of action.
For example, it was conspiracy when the central bank members of the European Central Bank met secretly over the last 15 years to formulate all four editions of their Central Bank Gold Agreement and said they would continue to meet secretly to plot their policy toward gold:
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2014/html/pr140519.en.html
It also was conspiracy when the G-10 Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee, consisting of representatives of the central banks and treasury departments of the major industrial nations, met secretly in April 1997 at the BIS in Switzerland to coordinate their secret policies toward the gold market:
http://www.gata.org/node/9623
Indeed, even in nominally democratic countries, government itself is often conspiracy. Government is conspiracy whenever it functions in secret. How can any serious market analyst or journalist disparage the term?
Then there is the evidence of market action itself.
GATA also has exposed gold market manipulation by examining trading data, most notably in a study by our late board member and market analyst Adrian Douglas showing that the gold price during trading in the London market went down steadily for 10 years even as the world gold price went up steadily in that time. Anyone buying gold on the opening of the London market and selling it on the close every day over the last decade would have lost a huge amount of money even as the gold price rose steadily:
http://www.gata.org/node/8918
GATA consultant Dimitri Speck, who is here tonight, has written a whole book compiling the data of gold market manipulation, "Secret Gold Policy":
http://www.geheime-goldpolitik.de/english/
That is, the London Gold Pool of the 1960s suppressing the price continues to operate today, only with different mechanisms.
In the last several years attacks on the gold price have become frequent and obvious, like the strange dumping of paper gold in the futures markets on April 12 and 15, 2013, where the nominal equivalent of maybe a quarter of annual gold mine production was sold in two days even though there was no special gold-related news. Many similar dumps are undertaken at particularly illiquid times as some entity with access to seemingly infinite money tries to pound the gold price down for psychological effect.
Even on October 1, 2013, as the U.S. dollar index broke below 80 and the government of the world's only superpower, the issuer of the world reserve currency, was incapacitated and half shut down by political turmoil, the gold price suddenly fell by 5 percent under an avalanche of futures selling, sometimes at a rate of many thousands of contracts per second.
These overwhelming attacks on the gold market out of the blue are almost certainly incidents of government intervention. Nothing else can plausibly explain them.
Indeed, central banks refuse to explain their involvement in the gold market.
In 2009 GATA sued the Federal Reserve in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia seeking access to the Fed's gold records. Technically we won the case in 2011, as the court ordered the Fed to disclose one record, the minutes of that G-10 Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee meeting in April 1997.
The Fed was ordered to pay GATA court costs, which it did.
But the court allowed the Fed to conceal all its other gold records:
http://www.gata.org/node/9917
Since that time GATA has peppered Western central banks with specific questions about their gold activities, which is something financial journalism, mining companies, or any ordinary investor could do. The central banks largely maintain a guilty silence.
For example, in July 2013 the Bank of England reported on its Internet site that it was vaulting about 1,200 tonnes of gold less than it had listed in the bank's annual report in February. GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod called attention to this. It raised suspicion that the departed gold had been used in the smashing of the gold price three months earlier. So GATA asked the Bank of England to explain the discrepancy.
The Bank of England replied only that the data posted on its Internet site for the public was "deliberately non-specific." But that data had been fairly specific, and had given a number vastly different from the number published in the bank's annual report. Sensing its vulnerability, the Bank of England concluded its brief statement arrogantly and defensively: "The bank will not be offering any further comment on this matter." See:
http://www.gata.org/node/12859
The specific questions that GATA has put to central banks without receiving answers are posted at our Internet site and remain available to any serious financial journalist or gold investor:
http://www.gata.org/node/11661
http://www.gata.org/node/14606
As long as central banks refuse to answer some basic questions about their involvement in the gold market, it must be concluded that they have much to hide.
Why does all this matter? How might it end?
It matters because the rigging of the gold market is the rigging that facilitates the rigging of all markets -- part of a much broader scheme by which a secretive and unelected elite in the United States and Western Europe controls the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world -- controls the value of everything and thereby impairs or destroys all markets and democracy itself everywhere and obstructs humanity's progress.
This is an utterly totalitarian and parasitic system. It is also just the latest manifestation of the everlasting war of the financial class against the producing class, only it is hidden well enough that the producing class hasn't yet figured it out.
This system might end in various ways.
First it's a question of world politics at the highest levels.
The system may end at the insistence of the developing world with an official worldwide revaluation of gold and gold's formal restoration to the international monetary system and the demotion of the U.S. dollar.
The system may end when one country pulls the plug on it, exchanging U.S. dollars and government bonds for more gold -- real metal -- than is available, or when ordinary investor demand exhausts supply, which is more or less how the London Gold Pool ended in 1968.
Or the system may end as part of a plan by the major central banks to avert the catastrophic debt deflation that now threatens the world.
For example, a study in 2006 by the Scottish economist Peter Millar concluded that to avert such a catastrophic debt deflation, central banks would need to raise the gold price by a factor of seven to 20 times in order to reliquefy themselves and devalue their currencies and society's debts generally:
http://www.gata.org/node/4843
In May 2012 the U.S. economists and investment fund managers Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky published a report speculating that central banks likely are already redistributing gold reserves among themselves in preparation for just such an upward revaluation of gold and gold's return as formal backing for currencies:
http://www.gata.org/node/11373
The current system's end is an arithmetical question, a question of how much real gold is retained by the central banks participating in the price suppression scheme. Some metal is always draining away to support the gold derivatives system, and it seems lately that more is draining away every year than is being mined. How much do the gold-suppressing central banks really still have left? How much gold has been put into the market through swaps and leases?
Central banks refuse to say. For since the control of gold is the control of markets and the control of the valuation of everything, the amount, location, and disposition of central bank gold reserves are state secrets far more sensitive than the amount, location, and disposition of nuclear weapons.
The end of central bank market rigging is a question of education and publicity, a question of whether central banks that are not part of the gold price suppression scheme and investors alike will ever realize that as much as 90 percent of the world's investment gold, supposedly being held in trust for its owners, has been, to put it politely, oversubscribed. That is, the gold may not exist. If there is ever such a realization and delivery is demanded, gold will rise to multiples of its current price.
While that prospect excites gold investors, will governments let them keep the resulting extraordinary gains, or will governments impose windfall profits taxes or even try to confiscate gold?
If the gold price soars, will governments let mining companies keep taking metal out of the ground at current royalty rates? Will governments even let private companies keep mining gold at all?
On the other hand, if there is no general realization of the fraud of "paper gold" and central bank intervention in markets, gold price suppression and the destruction of markets generally may go on forever.
Central banks are formidable enemies because of their power to create infinite money and debt. But that power is not their biggest advantage in the gold suppression scheme and the scheme to defeat markets and democracy generally.
For the scheme cannot work without deception, surreptitiousness, and misunderstanding.
And therefore to be overthrown the scheme needs only to be exposed, since when people realize that a market is rigged, they will not take the losing side of the trade.
That's why the biggest advantage of central banks here is not their power of money and debt creation but rather the complicity of the financial news media and the gold mining industry itself.
Mainstream financial journalists will not press the vital questions. Indeed, the first rule of mainstream financial journalism is: Never put a critical question to a central bank and report the inadequate answer. The second rule of mainstream financial journalism is that the first rule goes double in regard to gold.
The journalistic questions for central banks could begin very simply:
1) Are central banks trading secretly in the gold market and other markets, directly or through intermediaries, or not?
2) If central banks are secretly trading in the gold market and other markets, directly or through intermediaries, does this trading have policy purposes or is it just for fun?
3) And if this secret trading does have policy purposes, what are they and why are they too being kept secret?
Then the answers from central banks could be compared with the documentation GATA has compiled.
As for the gold mining industry, it seems unaware of the monetary nature of its product and the way the price of its product is suppressed. Further, the gold mining industry has been intimidated by its governments and its bankers, all agents of central banks, and has consented to die quietly.
Will any of this ever really change?
I think it will eventually. Some central banks are growing suspicious of what presents itself as the gold market and are steadily accumulating gold reserves. And of course here in Germany your citizens campaign has induced the Bundesbank at least to claim that it is gradually repatriating your national gold reserves. Your citizens campaign has caused enormous trouble and embarrassment for the bad guys and has inspired similar movements in other countries. I salute you.
But will any of us live to see the defeat of totalitarian central banking as it is now practiced? I don't know. Sometimes I can only get apocalyptic about it, with a little help from the American abolitionist poet James Russell Lowell:
Truth forever on the scaffold,
Wrong forever on the throne,
Yet that scaffold sways the future,
And, behind the dim unknown,
Standeth God within the shadow
Keeping watch above His own.
In this struggle we are up against nearly all the money and power in the world. But the Ascent of Man should continue, and if we're doing the right thing we can hasten that ascent a little. We are all working to advance the ideals of democratic, transparent, and limited government, of fair dealing among nations and people, and, really, to advance individual liberty and the brotherhood of man, which, in the end, are what the monetary metals are about.
If you'd like more information about this issue or help in locating any of the documents I've mentioned, please e-mail me at CPowell@GATA.org.
Thanks for your kind attention.

* * *
Join GATA here:
Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia, Cananda
Sunday-Monday, January 18-19,2015
http://cambridgehouse.com/event/33/vancouver-resource-investment-confere... (http://cambridgehouse.com/event/33/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2015)
* * *
Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference:
https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell
Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006:
http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html
Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:
http://gata.org/tshirts
Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:
http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal
Help keep GATA going
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:
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To contribute to GATA, please visit:
http://www.gata.org/node/16
» printer friendly version (http://www.gata.org/node/14839/print)

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Serpo

13th December 2014, 05:18 PM

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/12/13_Andrew_Maguire_files/Andrew%20Maguire%2012%3A13%3A2014_1.mp3

Serpo

15th December 2014, 01:26 AM

Really Nice Bottom in Silver – Maybe Posted on December 14, 2014 (http://www.silverdoctors.com/really-nice-bottom-in-silver-maybe/) by The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/author/the-doc/)
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(http://sdbullion.com/)

Is $14.10 all she wrote for silver bears?
Technically, we cannot yet confirm this; however, I must admit that this particular bottom does appear rather alluring…

Submitted by Joe Russo, EWT:
If you’re wondering whether silver has finally bottomed, just hang on because in a minute, we’re going to outline the 3-essential criteria points that will determine if this is going to be the case or not.
Is $14.10 all she wrote for silver bears? Technically, we cannot yet confirm this; however, I must admit that this particular bottom does appear rather alluring.
Don’t get your shorts all twisted in a bunch just yet people. Remember, you don’t want to fall prey to every pretty-looking bottom that comes along now, do you?
Dang, that is a super nice looking bottom though, isn’t it? How can we know for sure? What if this truly were “the bottom,” the one we’ve been waiting for so desperately?
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/silver-bottom.png (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/silver-bottom.png)

Listen, I am fully aware that there are an awful lot of aloof stackers out there who just assume ignore charts and paper prices. Their thinking, and to a certain extent rightly so, is that the paper price is rigged so why bother – just keep exchanging worthless paper for a real tangible asset and forget about it.
In a future article, I shall endeavor to reveal that at the end of the day, whether you like it or not – rigged or otherwise – that the paper-price of everything, which includes silver and gold – matters – to everyone.
For now, with regard to paper-prices and rigging, let’s just set all such aloofness aside and ponder what it would take to confirm that $14.10 is indeed “the-bottom” that stackers have been longing for.

3-Essential Criteria to Confirm a $14.10 Bottom in Silver

Obviously, the $14.10 level must hold the print low.

From and Elliott Wave Perspective, in order to maintain an impulsive price pattern, the $16.68 level should not be breached going forward.

The current rally should extend to or beyond $19.26, and thereafter, the old bear market low of $18.18 should become rock solid support.

If any one of the above criteria fails to hold muster, then lower lows remain plausible. After all, we must remember that we are still dealing with a long-term bear-market condition here.
Until the price-action confirms by meeting all of the above criteria, a long-term bear market it shall remain – so don’t take profits on your long-term paper-shorts just yet.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/really-nice-bottom-in-silver-maybe/#more-49228

Serpo

6th January 2015, 08:52 PM

http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6gdx1.png
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/China-dragon.png (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/China-dragon.png)America is in no condition to endure an economic downturn, yet a downturn is coming, almost as surely as night follows day.
When the next crisis unfolds, I expect the Fed to quietly ask the Chinese central bank to revalue gold, by announcing a major gold buy program.
This would allow China’s currency to become a competitor with the dollar.
Equally importantly, it would allow the Fed to hide the key role that a higher gold price would play, in managing US government debt that is clearly out of control.

In late 2013, I predicted the Fed would taper its QE program to zero, and the first taper would cause gold to rally, stunning the Western gold community. I also predicted the taper would turn the US stock market into a “wet noodle”. That’s what happened.
In 2015, I expect the Fed to hike rates sooner than most analysts expect, and I’m predicting that gold rallies on these rate hikes, and global stock markets take a horrific beating. I expect the stock markets of India and China to recover from that beating, but not the American market.
Despite yesterday’s mini-crash, I don’t think the American stock market is pricing in the reality of the coming rate hikes.
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6dow1.png). That’s the daily Dow chart, and it’s off to a terrible start this year.
The “January indicator” that I use focuses on the first week of trading during each year. If the Dow ends that first week on the downside, it can indicate the entire year will be negative.
That’s because how the Dow trades during the first week of January is a very good barometer of how institutional money managers are adding or withdrawing risk capital, with a one year outlook. So far, their outlook is very negative.
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6dow2.png). That’s the monthly Dow chart. I would not be a buyer of the US stock market, unless the Dow declined to the 14,000 area, and even then I’d only be a light buyer.
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6dow3.png). I’ve argued for years that the US government is more interested in the corporate stock market than the real unemployment rate, because large corporations provide a lot of money to get politicians elected. Those corporations benefit from higher stock prices. Some analysts believe the stock market can only crash when the public is heavily involved, but I would argue that the hedge funds are the “new era” public, just as robots and computers are becoming the workers of the new era.
Rig counts are beginning to drop in US oil fields, and large layoffs are likely coming, yet the government continues to boast that more restaurant jobs are being created. Clearly, America is in no condition to endure an economic downturn, yet a downturn is coming, almost as surely as night follows day.
When the next crisis unfolds, I expect the Fed to quietly ask the Chinese central bank to revalue gold, by announcing a major gold buy program. This would allow China’s currency to become a competitor with the dollar.
Equally importantly, it would allow the Fed to hide the key role that a higher gold price would play, in managing US government debt that is clearly out of control.
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6oil1.png). That’s the daily oil chart. The price has arrived at my short term $49 target area.
I think oil may trade under $30. Rate hikes and a peak in the US business cycle could keep it there for a long time, which is fabulous news for gold mining companies.
At the start of December, the Indian central bank killed the 80-20 gold export rule, and gold immediately soared about $100!There are strong rumours that the Modi government may be only about 48 hours away from making another major announcement, directly relating to gold.
“The Union Commerce Secretary Rajeev Kher has scheduled a meeting on Jan. 7, which will be attended by representatives from country’s finance ministry, the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). According to reports, the government intends to extend the ‘Make in India’ campaign into gold sector.” –Resource Investor News, January 5, 2015.
Indian gold demand is the elephant in the gold price discovery room, and that elephant is beginning to “stand up and take charge”. “The recent survey conducted by the country’s leading credit rating agency ICRA Ltd shows that the gold jewelry demand in Indian domestic market is poised to witness 10% growth in 2015.” – Scrap Monster News, January 5, 2015.
Dramatically lower fuel costs, coupled with higher demand for gold from China and India appear to be creating a huge “win-win” situation, for Western gold stock investors!
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6gdx1.png). That’s the daily GDX chart, and the fundamental price drivers are creating a very bullish technical picture. Note the buy signal in play on my 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator. Volume is bullish. A two day close above $20.50 could ignite a powerful rally, to the $28 area.
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6gdxj1.png). That’s the GDXJ chart. I think most analysts are underestimating the dramatic effect that low fuel prices and surging Chindian demand can have on the price of junior gold stocks. Naked shorting should soon be replaced by “institutional respect” for gold stocks, and that includes the junior sector.
The reason most gold bears have been so wrong about gold crashing in 2014 and 2015, is because they are excessively focused on technical analysis and the US economy. They also appear to be almost clueless about key events occurring in India and China.
Going to war with only one weapon is an act of madness. It’s the same thing with investing in gold. Investors who stare at charts and just trade gold rather than embrace it as the ultimate asset, are likely to fail miserably, in the long term. That’s because charts don’t make fundamentals. Fundamentals make charts. The bears learned that the hard way, when the Indian central bank killed the 80-20 rule. They may be about to get another brutal lesson in gold market fundamentals, if the Modi government openly embraces the gold jewellery industry in the next 48 hours.
The gold jewellery sector is the second largest employer in India, and gold is a key part of the Hindu religion. Simply put, the Western gold bears and their ridiculous chart patterns are no match for the “shock and awe” power of a billion Hindus, whose thirst for gold is…. insatiable!
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6gold1.png). That’s the daily gold chart. Note the Stochastics oscillator buy signal in play now. Note the “bull era channel” that I highlighted. In the very short term gold will continue to move erratically, in response to key economic data like the upcoming jobs report on Friday. In the bigger picture, the rise and consistency of Chindian demand should create a stable and modestly rising price trajectory.
Please click here now (http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15jan/2015jan6si1.png). That’s the daily chart for silver. Note the nice buy signal in play on my Stochastics oscillator. The bull channel is steeper than the gold channel, and that’s normal. Silver tends to rise more strongly than gold does, when both are in an uptrend. Bullion expert Koos Jansen has apparently reported that silver trading volume on the Shanghai market exceeded that on the COMEX in 2014. I’ve predicted that gold will meet the same “fabulous fate” by 2017. Silver’s price tends to be determined by the gold price, and as gold trading volume in Shanghai (and Dubai) begins to overwhelm the COMEX, both gold and silver investors can probably look forward to many happy years, of higher prices!

Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email tofreereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Short The Dow, And Buy Gold Stocks Now!” report. I highlight the key Elliott Wave charts for the Dow and Gold Stocks from my associate and professional engineer, “Captain Ewave”, and show why the Dow could soon suffer 1000 point down days, while oil plunges and gold stocks surge. I’ll include Ewave analysis of key gold stocks!

Thanks!
Cheers
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates

http://www.silverdoctors.com/stewart-thomson-when-next-crisis-unfolds-fed-will-ask-china-to-revalue-gold/

Serpo

6th January 2015, 10:41 PM

Wealth Watchman: The Great Financial Tsunami is Still Coming For the Banksters!

Posted on January 6, 2015 (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wealth-watchman-the-great-financial-tsunami-still-coming-for-the-banksters/) by The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/author/the-doc/)
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For nearly 4 years now, the Fed, BIS, Bank of England, etc have moved heaven and earth, to heap burning coals upon silver investors, and have done the same to gold investors for 3 years. They’ve done everything in the book to dislodge us, to eradicate us, to dissuade us…And they’ve failed.
These people have done all of this, just to keep the Money Power a tiny space longer.
Let’s face it: 3 or 4 years, in the grand scheme of human history, is a blink, it’s nothing.
The central planners behind the massive con, and the international, monetary ponzi scheme, have bought another 1,000’ish days.
Then what do they do?
The Great Financial Tsunami, which nearly washed them all away in 2008 is still coming for them, and it is higher than ever.
The storm wall they’ve spent 5 years building, in order to protect themselves from the wrath of the coming storm, is laughably inadequate.

Heroes Secession: (http://sdbullion.com/silver/sd-war-collection)

Submitted by The Wealth Watchman (http://thewealthwatchman.com/why-i-look-forward-to-2015-with-relish/):
First of all, happy new year to all my shield brothers out there! All of you in this community have made this year such an amazing one for me, that I have to say, “thank you!” for it. As long as you keep sticking around, I’ll keep trying my best to patrol this wilderness of financial fraud, and fight for truth, beside you.
I know it’s been a difficult year for stackers in some ways, and a gift in others. Nevertheless, it is that time again, and as another year goes into the history books, and a new, living year is about to begin, I thought I’d take stock of where we’re at on the larger picture for gold and silver.
Now, unsurprisingly, both of our metals are somewhat down for the year, for the 2nd year straight, and it seems, for psychological reasons, that our enemy is keen to make both of them close red yet again, which suites me just fine!
The banksters haven’t stopped there though! They’ve ramped up the Dow Jones to its tip-toppiest, bubbliest high notes for the year, while every, single item in the commodity sector is being jack-hammered into the earth’s core. They’re bound and determined that inflation won’t show itself at this stage of the game.
Central banks are hell-bent on re-inflating the housing bubble, the debt bubble, the stock market bubble, the derivative bubble, all while sucking any and all metrics of true measurement of their wicked schemes, down into the deepest hole in the proverbial swamp.
In 2011, a memo went out in the central banking world, which continues to be their same blanket policy toward precious metal stackers today:
http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Crush-them1-1024x683.jpg (http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Crush-them1.jpg)
They’ve turned us upside down, and shaken the tree we’re on with a bulldozer! But we, being warriors all, have been hanging this way so long, that we actually prefer being upside down now!
http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Silver-warriors.jpg (http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Silver-warriors.jpg)

Traditionally, traders have had a saying: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
There’s a word for that phrase, which I can’t repeat, because there are ladies present, and because this is a family-friendly site! Turns out though, that phrase was a crock to begin with, because the entire time that folks thought it was the “market” staying irrational, it was usually the Fed and central banks throwing good money after bad.
A truer aphorism might be this:
The Fed can maintain its credit rating, longer than you can be right.
Yet, even after pumping their trillions, praising all their own handiwork, and “banging every close” with a Plunge Protection Team ramp in general equities, a roughly 9% gain is the best they’ve mustered all year on the Dow Jones.
It is all for naught! Every bubble finds its pin, every time, without fail!
There are no more markets, only interventions, as Chris Powell wryly observed. All this levitation isn’t the mystical creature, called “the market”. This is all insane, propagandistic, herding of the masses into the instruments they wish folks to be in, until they deem it time for the sheep to be fleeced. That’s all the “markets” have been for the past 100 years, ever since the Fed was established. End of story.
Despite all this, I couldn’t be happier about the prospects for stackers in 2015 and beyond, here’s a few reminders why!
India: The New Retirement Home For All Silver Everywhere
There’s no two ways about it, friends, what’s happening right now in India will leave ripples for years to come. I’ve long said that India is the key which will unlock magical things in the silver space, and gee heinnicky, but India has not disappointed!
Last year, they’d set a new record by importing roughly 6,000 metric tonnes of silver, which was over 190 million ounces. Impressive to say the least, but what they’ve done this year,especially in the last 3 months, has bested that total by far!
In fact, just when you think India can’t possibly top its silver stacking, they do, every time…
As strong as gold demand has been there(probably about 800 non-smuggled tonnes, year to date), their silver demand continues to break every record, everywhere! Indians are doing whatever it takes, to continue to buy ever larger tonnage figures of silver, with every blessed rupee note they possess:
http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Zelda-Rupee.jpg (http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Zelda-Rupee.jpg)
Doh, not that kinda rupee note, dagnabbit!
Ah well, you get the picture! You know that crazy, old lady, who checks the prices of every. single. item. at a yard sale, and then shops around in every other yard in the neighborhood….in order to save 25 cents?
Ok, great! Now picture about a billion of those little, old ladies, amplify it with the passion of someone who has a great zeal for sovereign, generational wealth, and voila, you’ve got India!Their peoples continue to be an informed, intelligent flock of buyers, who know a freaking bargain when they see one.
And they continue to see the mother of all bargains in silver!
They are buying so much bleeding silver, that in the past 3 months alone (December not included), they’ve bought over 100 million ounces of it!
100 million ounces! That’s 2.5 years’ worth of silver eagle production numbers, even at this record pace!
That’s roughly 1.2 million ounces per day! for the last 90!
Get your head around this: this means, that India alone, has bought more than 50% of all the silver that the earth has mined for the past 3 months straight. Every other ounce that anyone has brought from the earth, since Labor Day, is now safely in India’s hands.
Their stacking is so epic, that according to Reuters, they’ve sucked out mostly all of the City of London’s silver reserves which they’d spent the last several years storing up, and the word is that India has now had to go to China and Russia, in order to find someone with enough silver to sell to them!
If anything near this pace of stacking stays firm in December, then India looks set to import well over 7,000 tonnes of silver(half of which was stacked in the last 4 months of the year!).
Not half bad, huh?
http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014-Indian-SIlver-Demand.png (http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2014-Indian-SIlver-Demand.png)
Wanna know the best part about it all?
They did all this, with an average silver price of roughly $16.50! *laughs* This epic stacking didn’t start until silver broke under $18, it is bargain-buying at its best.
Imagine! Just imagine what India will do on a monthly or annual basis, if the banksters take silver down to $14 again….and keep it there, even for a month!
How about if they take it to $12?
Or to $10?
You see why I welcome these price assaults? This is crucial, and you must understand this right now: there is no doubt that the silver reserves that London had, would’ve been used for many months out, to rig silver even longer, but now that silver is mostly gone!
This is why we must embrace their attacks on the paper price, and help our Indian stacking comrades as much as we can, by throwing ourselves into the fray alongside them! The tide will soon turn, until that time we’ve got work to do, warriors!
China’s Golden Onslaught
China is also doing their part in this multi-pronged assault on the Barad-Dur (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barad-d%C3%BBr) of international, financial criminality! For though China has yet to fully realize the potential of the metal of their roots(silver), they are keen to drain the City of London of their gold. Make no mistake, the stacking there in just the last two years alone, has removed thousands of tonnes of extra gold from the Western, Central banks’ coffers. Eric Sprott has remarked before, that he believes there is perhaps a 4,000 tonne deficit in just a 4,000 tonne gold market!
In other words, in a world where roughly 4,000 tonnes is made available through mining, refining, and recycling, the world could be demanding as much as 8,000 tonnes per annum!
China, for the 2nd year running, has now stacked an incredible 2,000 tonnes of gold in just 12 months!
In fact, last summer some circles in mainstream news had prematurely said that China’s move to buy gold was a “one-off” in 2013, and had gone cold. Great call, genuises!
With one reporting week left, the demand figures there have now surpassed the 2,000 tonne mark, just out of Shanghai. As always, the intrepid Koos Jansen is on the case:
http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SGE-2014-Demand.png (http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SGE-2014-Demand.png)
Look at that last red spike on the right. A whole 60 tonnes of gold was demanded in just one week.
Put another way: the Chinese people people bought more than twice as much gold in one week, as the Comex has “available to deliver” to investors in its entire warehousing system!
Do you see? The Comex has long been irrelevant in the physical gold scene, and only continues to be relevant on the silver scene because it has to be! The Money Powers are out of luck and out of time, if they cease being able to deliver silver to everyone who wants it…for even a brief stint!
Very soon, at a time that China and the BRICS will choose(because they hold all the cards), they will do something which will yank pricing power on the precious metals scene, away from the City of London and New York, indefinitely.
Others have said this same thing, and I agree with those assessments. Nearly all the pieces seem to be in place. It is nearly time to go for the kill shot. If it goes down that way, then those who didn’t have all the phyzz they wanted or needed, will be priced out unless they agree to enter the market at much higher rates.
I won’t attempt to make a prediction as to when that will occur, as some have made the mistake of doing. Some notable folks have said that the BRICS will make their move by “X” date. Again, since no one knows how much gold the banking Dragon still possesses, it is utter folly to attempt to guess when the East will make their move. Our job is simply to properly allocate our resources, and prepare ourselves, our families, our friends, and anyone else who will listen, for this inevitability.
Conclusion
For nearly 4 years now, the Fed, BIS, Bank of England, etc have moved heaven and earth, to heap burning coals upon silver investors, and have done the same to gold investors for 3 years. They’ve done everything in the book to dislodge us, to eradicate us, to dissuade us…
And they’ve failed.
These people have done all of this, just to keep the Money Power a tiny space longer. Let’s face it, 3 or 4 years, in the grand scheme of human history, is a blink, it’s nothing.
The central planners behind the massive con, and the international, monetary ponzi scheme, have bought another 1,000’ish days. Could they buy a few hundred more?

Absolutely.
So what?
Then what do they do?
The Great Financial Tsunami, which nearly washed them all away in 2008 is still coming for them, and it is higher than ever. The storm wall they’ve spent 5 years building, in order to protect themselves from the wrath of the coming storm, is laughably inadequate.
Today, at the start of 2015, you can be sure that the Yellens, the Legardes, the Draghis are all popping $2,000 champagne, and congratulating themselves on being masters of the universe.
Which sure is funny…
Because I always pictured ancient king Belshazzar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_writing_on_the_wall) doing this exact same thing, literally moments before the dagger fell upon him and his “unbeatable kingdom”.
Forever.
http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Tsunami-2-1024x521.jpg (http://thewealthwatchman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Tsunami-2.jpg)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wealth-watchman-the-great-financial-tsunami-still-coming-for-the-banksters/#more-49653

Serpo

12th January 2015, 11:46 AM

BO POLNY: Gold and Silver, a Parabolic Rise in 2015 Posted on January 12, 2015 (http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-gold-and-silver-a-parabolic-rise-in-2015/) by The Doc (http://www.silverdoctors.com/author/the-doc/)
25 Comments (http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-gold-and-silver-a-parabolic-rise-in-2015/#comments)
4,945 views
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(http://sdbullion.com/)

Paper has begun its collapse; it started with the Russian Ruble and will end with the US dollar. As paper collapses, Gold will rise and then go Parabolic!
All the world currencies are falling to Gold as Gold continues to expose the TRUTH of what is TRULY going on in the world of fiat paper vs. Gold!
The TRUTH is printing money leads to hyperinflation and much much higher prices in both Gold, and especially Silver as their respective ratio gets reset.
The TRUTH will set Gold & Silver free with a Parabolic rise in 2015!

Submitted by Bo Polny:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Parabolic_Rise_in_2015-918x1024.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Parabolic_Rise_in_2015.jpg)
Paper has begun its collapse; it started with the Russian Ruble and will end with the US dollar. As paper collapses, Gold will rise and then go Parabolic!

In the November 2014 post (see LINK HERE) (http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-is-the-silver-trade-of-a-lifetime-coming/) we discussed Gold’s performance vs. the yen as Japan turned on the printing press causing Gold to breakout to a new 1.5 year high relative the yen. Below in the 3-year weekly chart provided in November 2014:

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/1.__YEN-1024x450.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/1.__YEN.jpg)

What does the chart look like now, 7-weeks later? See below…
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2.__GOLDYEN-1024x450.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2.__GOLDYEN.jpg)
Aside from the Russian Ruble, the Gold in yen terms was the first of all the world currencies that broken out of the triangle formation and the breakout is now confirmed with 8 weeks OUTSIDE and ABOVE the triangle as illustrated above.

In the November 2014 post we also wrote, ‘as Gold in yen terms has broken the triangle, this breakout is soon to be followed by all the other currencies of the world.’
Well, since the breakout of Gold in yen terms 8-weeks ago; Gold has since broken out of the same respective triangles in terms of the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and last week broke out against the Euro! See chart below:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/3.__GOLDEURO-1024x450.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/3.__GOLDEURO.jpg)

Look familiar? You bet it does! Have a look at the Gold in Yen terms chart from November 2014 above; Gold as of last weeks close is now at a new 1.5 year high relative the Euro just as it was relative the yen in November 2014. Gold in Euro terms is just a couple months behind the Gold in yen terms and Gold in Russian Ruble terms simply lead the race.

All the world currencies are falling to Gold as Gold continues to expose the TRUTH of what is TRULY going on in the world of fiat paper vs. Gold!

How does it end?

In a Parabolic Rise, as can clearly be illustrated with Gold priced in Russian rubles chart below:

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/4.__GoldRUBLE.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/4.__GoldRUBLE.jpg)

The TRUTH is printing money leads to hyperinflation and much much higher prices in both Gold, and especially Silver as their respective ratio gets reset.
The TRUTH will set Gold & Silver free with a Parabolic rise in 2015!
Gold has yet to complete its cycle high target of $2000 as referenced in the May 2014 New York Kitco Interview (see LiNK HERE) (http://www.gold2020forecast.com/). We need to wait a little long; but let’s not forget…patience is a virtue!

In last weeks update (see LINK HERE) (http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-2015-arrives-and-a-world-stock-market-collapse-begins/) we stated ‘despite Gold closing up Friday 1/2/2015 and the Miners closing on their highs, the rally that follows starting Monday 1/5/2015 will fail at $1220 (+/- $5.00), so do not get too excited just yet’. On Friday January 9, 2015 Gold closed at $1223.

There remain a few final and very important cycle TURNS in the Gold and Silver Market before a Parabolic Rise can be expected. As an exciting start to 2015, for those interested in a complimentary ‘Sneak Peek’ into Gold’s January Cycle TURNS please visit www.Gold2020Forecast.com (http://www.gold2020forecast.com/).

Thank you and all the best in 2015,
Bo Polny
http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-gold-and-silver-a-parabolic-rise-in-2015/

ComputerYe

20th May 2015, 07:04 AM

Yes, currently, investors are bearish on silver, because of obvious reasons. But, supply demand factors, especially rising demand for the industrial purpose may turn the prices up by this year end.

Horn

20th May 2015, 08:45 AM

Yes, currently, investors are bearish on silver, because of obvious reasons. But, supply demand factors, especially rising demand for the industrial purpose may turn the prices up by this year end.

I remember someone saying something similar every year for the last twelve years...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w211KOQ5BMI

Serpo

12th July 2015, 05:29 AM

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?84244-Has-The-Global-Run-On-Silver-Begun-%96-SRSRocco

Serpo

14th July 2015, 08:06 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=354&v=gZRkp6lvhCA

Serpo

14th July 2015, 08:08 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJzc9ZdUcAExow9.png

https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport (https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport/status/620613802141224960/photo/1)

Serpo

14th July 2015, 08:11 PM

Shittywank

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/SilverOTCderivs1.png

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/SilverOTCderivs1.png

Serpo

14th July 2015, 08:30 PM

A Lesson From the Greek Crisis: Safe Deposit Boxes Are Not Safe
(http://sdbullion.com/)

http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Empty_Bank_Vaults_FED_Gold-e1404240682853.jpg (http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Empty_Bank_Vaults_FED_Gold-e1404240682853.jpg)TND Guest Contributor: Paul-Martin Foss |
The following article by Carl Menger Center Board Member Prof. Joseph Salerno originally appeared on the website of the Ludwig von Mises Institute (https://mises.org/blog/lesson-greek-crisis-safe-deposit-boxes-are-not-safe). After numerous news reports (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Feuropean s-seek-shelter-in-gold-and-bitcoin-1435708290&ei=ZSqUVYqQEovpsAXBjbnwDQ&usg=AFQjCNH0Hw6a9jDHwOxxI4GiBiENthLm0Q&bvm=bv.96952980,d.b2w)have highlighted how many Greeks sought safety in gold purchases (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21074/bank-lines-athens-trigger-rush-gold-bitcoin/), we can only hope that they take Prof. Salerno’s warning to heart and keep their gold safe from confiscation.
A Lesson From the Greek Crisis: Safe Deposit Boxes Are Not Safe
By Joseph T. Salerno
Last week the Greek government imposed capital controls (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33303540) to prevent cash from escaping from the Greek banking system, which is on the brink of collapse. These repressive financial measures, which were invented by “Hitler’s banker” Hjalmar Schacht in the 1930s, include the closing of banks, limiting cash withdrawals from ATMs to 60 euros ($67) per day, and the banning of all money transfers via credit and debit cards to accounts held in foreign countries. Despite these Draconian controls, Greek banks continue to hemorrhage cash and, after yesterday’s referendum, it is probable that the daily limit on withdrawals from ATMs will be tightened (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_BAILOUT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-05-16-04-15). Worse yet, the reeling Greek public suffered another shock yesterday when Deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani revealed to Greek television that the government and banks had already agreed that people would also not be allowed to withdraw cash from safe deposit boxes for as long as the controls were in place. This may be part of a fallback plan if the ECB ends its bailout of the Greek banks. The government with the banks’ connivance would seize the cash euros stored in these boxes and compensate their lessees by crediting an equal sum of euros to their increasingly inaccessible checking deposits. The cash would then be fed into ATMs to postpone the day of reckoning for Greece’s zombie fractional-reserve banks.
In the meantime, the market has been working to provide a private, nonbank alternative for Greeks to safely store cash. In Dublin, Ireland enterprising diamond dealer Seamus Fahy, who owns Merrion Vaults (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/greeks-offered-cash-boxes-in-dublin-as-ireland-spies-opportunity), is offering a 15% discount for Greeks who are able to evade the fascist capital controls and smuggle their cash out of the country. As Fahy puts it: “If you lived in Athens, and had 200,000 euros, wouldn’t you try to get it out?” In addition Fahy is considering opening a branch of Merrion Vaults in Athens. He is already advertising his services on Greek-Irish community web sites.
In Greece itself, where business in many sectors has virtually come to a standstill, the sales of home safes are booming (http://time.com/3940801/greek-crisis-eurozone-safes/). George Moschopoulos, who has been selling safes for 40 years, reports a fivefold increase in his business in the last five years compared to the years before the crisis. Predictably, as Greeks have drained cash from their bank accounts since the financial crisis of 2008, home burglaries have skyrocketed. In 2012, there were almost 88,000 cases of burglary, which was a 76 percent increase from five years earlier. This year an elderly couple was robbed of their entire life savings of 80,000 euros.
Of course these market alternatives for securing cash beyond the reach of corrupt governments, crony banks, and burglars hardly benefit those who have already been locked out by capital controls from withdrawing their property from safe deposits boxes. As the Greek crisis deepens, the contagion threatens to spread to the sovereign debt and the fractional-reserve banking systems of other countries. Faced with such a financial crisis, it is a good bet that no government will hesitate to impose capital controls, up to and including forcibly preventing owners from accessing the contents of their safe deposit boxes.
# # # #
About Paul-Martin Foss:
http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/CMC-WebHeader24-1-e1418872661570.jpg (http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/CMC-WebHeader24-1-e1418872661570.jpg)Paul-Martin Foss is the founder, President, and Executive Director of the Carl Menger Center for the Study of Money and Banking (http://mengercenter.org/), an Arlington, VA-based think tank dedicated to educating the American people on the importance of sound money and sound banking.
Prior to founding the Menger Center, Mr. Foss worked in the U.S. House of Representatives for seven years, including six years as Congressman Ron Paul’s legislative assistant for monetary policy and financial services, and one year as Deputy Legislative Director for Congressman Thomas Massie (http://massie.house.gov/).
As Congressman Paul’s legislative assistant, he assisted the Congressman in his duties as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy by helping to develop hearing topics, agendas, and briefing Congressmen and their staffs on monetary policy topics. Mr. Foss also was responsible for the management of Dr. Paul’s monetary policy and financial services legislation, including the “Audit the Fed” and “End the Fed” bills, and was co-editor of Ron Paul’s Monetary Policy Anthology (http://test.mengercenter.org/?page_id=53), a multi-thousand page compilation of hearing transcripts, lecture transcripts, and other documents related to Dr. Paul’s chairmanship.
Mr. Foss received his Bachelor’s degree from The University of the South (Sewanee) (http://www.sewanee.edu/), and Master’s degrees from the London School of Economics (http://www.lse.ac.uk/) and Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service (http://sfs.georgetown.edu/).
This article appeared on the Carl Menger Center for the Study of Money and Banking (http://mengercenter.org/) and is reprinted with permission, “Creative Commons 4.0.”

http://thenewsdoctors.com/a-lesson-from-the-greek-crisis-safe-deposit-boxes-are-not-safe/

Serpo

14th July 2015, 08:33 PM

Gold And The Silver Stand-Off: Is The Selling Of Paper Gold And Silver Finally Ending? (http://silveristhenew.com/2015/07/14/gold-and-the-silver-stand-off-is-the-selling-of-paper-gold-and-silver-finally-ending/)

Serpo

15th July 2015, 06:11 PM

CARTEL Manipulation & The Ultimate PHYSICAL Shortage SGT Report
SGTreport.com (http://sgtreport.com/)
July 12th, 2015
2,314 views
2 Comments (http://www.thedailysheeple.com/cartel-manipulation-the-ultimate-physical-shortage_072015#disqus_thread)

342 8 365

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/manipulation.jpg
On July 7th the United States Mint suspended American Silver Eagle sales, again. And this time, sales of the popular PHYSICAL precious metal coin won’t resume until at least mid-August. And as the price of silver remains well below the cost of production for most of the world’s primary silver miners, according to precious metals analyst Andy Hoffman, “We continue to see record worldwide demand and record low inventories.”
In this important interview, Max Porterfield, the CEO and President of Callinex Mines (http://www.callinex.ca/) discusses the REALITY of the shortages of PHYSICAL precious AND base metals which is rapidly developing.
Not mincing words, Porterfield freely address the elephant in the room that has been actively contributing to the destruction of the health of the mining sector for years: Wall Street paper manipulation of the precious metals.
Porterfiled says, “You’ve got to ask yourself how is it legal that JP Morgan is solely responsible for 96% of all commodity derivatives, while Citigroup is single-handedly responsible for 70% of ALL precious metals derivatives?”
Meanwhile, last week the bottom fell out of copper pushing the price of that important base metal down to a level not seen in 15 years. The danger with plummeting base metals prices is clear, fewer profitable BASE METAL mining companies will equate to lower overall base metals production, and more shortages. And as it pertains to the already tight PHYSICAL silver market in which most silver is a by-product of base metals mining, we can only expect far less PHYSICAL silver production in a market where demand is already outstripping supply by at least 200 million ounces per year.
As India alone is on track to import 33% of ALL physical silver on earth in 2015 alone, it’s clear that a perfect storm is shaping up… for the ultimate PHYSICAL metals shortage.
Delivered by The Daily Sheeple (http://www.TheDailySheeple.com/)<em><strong>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqBmVRryWyU

Serpo

9th April 2016, 10:54 PM

http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Sprott-300x170.jpg (http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Sprott.jpg)Sprott is scarfing down more physical silver!
Let’s get straight to the great news for precious metals:

WELCOME TO DYSTOPIA #18

TND Exclusive: Eric Dubin (http://thenewsdoctors.com/tag/eric-dubin/)
“Doc” is on vacation. That’s why Silver Doctors is running our recording with GATA’s Bill Murphy (http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious-metals-market-podcast/supply-side-shift-how-retail-and-wholesale-gold-and-silver-dealers-are-responding-to-the-great-silver-shortage-of-2015/), recorded Tuesday. Jason Burack (http://thenewsdoctors.com/tag/jason-burack/) and I have your back, however, with the big news for the precious metals industry: PSLV Secondary! We’ll also dive deep into the “Panama Papers,” and you owe it to yourself to read the stories I have linked at the bottom of this article. Seriously. There’s more going on here than what the mainstream media narrative would have people believe. But let’s get to the great news for precious metals.
The Sprott Physical Silver Trust has announced a secondary offering to buy $75 million worth of silver. (link (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sprott-physical-silver-trust-prices-130917067.html)) To be expected, PSLV shares took a sharp dive on Friday, frustrating some. One commenter on The Wall St For Main St YouTube channel noted, “I will double down but this offering killed my return for the year in the PSLV.” The frustration is understandable. I noted (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymb9q41NxZQ):
It’s a little ironic. It’s kind of like taking a bullet for the team. I’m only being half flippant. If past is prologue, PSLV purchases will suck out of the physical market enough silver, at the margin, to eventually send the entire precious metals space higher. In a roundabout way, this secondary could end up meaning that silver would be in the $20s a heck of a lot sooner, for example, and that would benefit you and everyone. The cartel has executed a managed retreat from the depths of hell circa sub-$14 silver, with their new “no mas” line at $16. This secondary is going to make getting through $16 happen, with momentum. The next line in their sand would come at around $18.50 and that would have been hard to get past without a lot of multiple attempts, and the same sort of b.s. we see right now re. $16. We will probably be looking at $18.50+ a heck of a lot sooner, given this secondary. I don’t own any PSLV, but if I did, the 4%+ decline today would bum me out too. Alas, it is what it is. Dilution in the short-term for intermediate-term gains is the way this should work out. We see similar things happen when a smart mining company makes an outstanding purchase. Usually, regardless of how fantastic a deal might be from a strategic point of view, short-term traders usually punish even the intelligent acquisitions.
I’ve asked Sprott about his thought process and what the firm tries to do with these secondaries. I don’t remember which of the interviews this discussion happened, but we talked about it on two Silver Doctors Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap podcasts. I haven’t been watching the PSLV premium over the last month – just been too busy/distracted with other stuff. But I see that it was about 5% yesterday. Today, despite the 4+ percent haircut, PSLV still has a premium over assets of 0.57%.
I know that Sprott has been thinking above 5% – or thereabouts – as the level necessary to launch a secondary. I don’t have inside information, mind you. I just have talked to him enough that I know how he thinks. Take a look at the historical chart of the fund premium over time (chart #2): http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/
The fund finally had enough of a premium to launch a secondary and get this show on the road. It will be a good thing. Short-term pain for intermediate-term gain. — Eric Dubin
http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GDXJ-1yr1-e1460239117666.png (http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GDXJ-1yr1-e1460239117666.png)
http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/sc-17-e1460237565456.png (http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/sc-17-e1460237565456.png)
http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/gold1-e1460239226272.png (http://thenewsdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/gold1-e1460239226272.png)
Precious Metals Outlook:
Precious metals were already firming up this week. The Jr. mining share index, GDXJ, actually turned in an all time high for 2016 trading. Jason and I discuss this as the “tip of the spear” when it comes to sentiment in the precious metals industry. Dave Kranzler’s latest focuses on GDXJ as well, and it’s a funny read: “If The…Dow Went Up 94% In 2 1/2 Months, Maria Bartiromo And Liz Clayman Would Be Doing Naked Cartwheels.” (http://thenewsdoctors.com/if-the-dow-went-up-94-in-2-12-months-maria-bartiromo-and-liz-clayman-would-be-doing-naked-cartwheels-dave-kranzler/) (link (http://thenewsdoctors.com/if-the-dow-went-up-94-in-2-12-months-maria-bartiromo-and-liz-clayman-would-be-doing-naked-cartwheels-dave-kranzler/))
Going into next week, the Sprott PSLV announcement will send the sector higher still, confounding expectations for a huge and imminent cartel raid. In addition to the near- and intermediate-term outlook that Jason and I discuss, check out the conversation “Doc” and I had with Bill Murphy – click here (http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious-metals-market-podcast/supply-side-shift-how-retail-and-wholesale-gold-and-silver-dealers-are-responding-to-the-great-silver-shortage-of-2015/). I addressed the epic battle in detail in my last podcast write-up as well: BLS BS Triggers “Insane Demand For Silver” – SD Weekly Metals & Markets (http://thenewsdoctors.com/bls-bs-triggers-insane-demand-for-silver-sd-weekly-metals-markets/).
SCUMBAGS:

It wouldn’t be a Welcome To Dystopia without “scumbag nominees.” Maybe we should invite Eric Sprott on sometime to poll him on potential nominations. Jason nominated:
1) TSA for wasting $1.4 million on an IPAD app for airport arrows telling you right or left for which line for pat downs or body scanners (how wasteful!)
2) President Maduro of Venezuela- for his communist/Marxist policies and the hyperinflation and murders and corruption that big government is destroying Venezuela.
Weekend Links:

The Panama Papers: The People Deceived (http://thenewsdoctors.com/the-panama-papers-the-people-deceived-christopher-black/) – Christopher Black
Panama Papers? Hybrid War, From Palmyra To Panama (http://thenewsdoctors.com/panama-papers-hybrid-war-from-palmyra-to-panama-pepe-escobar/) – Pepe Escobar
BBC Bias, Brexit, The EU, Bilderberg And Global Government (http://thenewsdoctors.com/bbc-bias-brexit-the-eu-bilderberg-and-global-government-steven-macmillan/) – Steven MacMillan

Thanks for listening! — Eric Dubin (http://thenewsdoctors.com/tag/eric-dubin/), independent financial/geopolitical analyst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=140&v=ymb9q41NxZQ

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/sprott-scarfing-down-more-silver/

Serpo

10th April 2016, 01:23 PM

Shanghai, Satanists and Celebration of Fire

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/goldenjackass.JPG
By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com (http://www.goldenjackass.com/)

The theme of this article is the arrival of April, the most significant month on the Satanist calendar and the month with an extremely long list of celebrated assassination and mass murder events that they boast of. Some events are well-known to follow the April pattern, while others are not. The relevance to the financial world is immediate, when one considers that the Chinese have a planned launch of the Shanghai Gold Price Fix, as well as the introduction of the Shanghai RMB-based Gold Futures contract, the date arranged at April 19th. This date is right smack dab in the middle of the week marked by the Celebration of Fire. What an incredible insult to the banker cabal, replete with Satanists like uber-leader Rothschild, if the fiat paper currency system centered upon the USDollar is upended by China during mid-April! The temples might indeed be overturned that would catch King Solomon's attention. Any wresting of control within the Gold market would enable the price to rise, like to establish an equilibrium between supply & demand in the physical market. Refer to a doubled Gold price and a tripled Silver price suddenly. For perhaps 40 years or more, the Gold price has been set by paper contracts with claimed price discovery involved. However, no discovery is anywhere visible on any horizon, any arena, any window. It is a den of profound corruption upon which the entire USDollar platforms rests. The Chinese attack within the Gold market could hit Satanist bankers where they live, in the fire of mid-April.

The arrival of the Gold futures contract in Shanghai poses an additional risk for the Western banker cabal, a grand crime syndicate which extends to the energy firms, the military industrial complex, the big pharmaceutical firms, and the press networks. A real valid bonafide Gold contract which delivers physical gold would enable vast arbitrage to buy cheap in London and sell dear in China. Any acceleration in the arbitrage activity, combined with any sincere attempt to set the Gold Fix in a reasonable manner that puts equilibrium as priority, and the Western bankers will face the USDollar kicked to the curb and possible global boycott. The zinger factor is that the Chinese Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is ready. It serves as an alternative to the SWIFT bank transaction system. The little known fact (except to Hat Trick Letter clients) is that CIPS was successfully field tested in late February. It only lacks tight connection to the FOREX currency market, and to the Sovereign Bond market, in particular the USTreasurys. The demise of the USDollar is finally visible. The King Dollar Reign of Terror is soon to come to an end. One of the most shameful eras in modern financial history is coming to a close. The USDollar has turned toxic since QE was introduced, killing capital as quickly as foreign opponents are killed on the battlefield under false cause for war in its defense of the global currency reserve. The reserve status is going away, and with it the USEconomy on a credit card. A New Dollar stands at tremendous risk of a series of devaluations.

SIGNIFICANCE & COINCIDENCE OF APRIL
The list of nasty fiery events arranged during April in recent years is long. Be sure to read correctly, as the Jackass claims these were all murder events arranged by the cabal of Satanists. The insider word indicates that since 2011 the FBI has served as the new hired hand in organizing the motivated public criminal deeds, then in charge of the cover-up with news coverage in pure propaganda, finally in charge of arresting the patsy in an clever incrimination frame. Their motive is to create fear and trepidation among the public, to facilitate the Global Fascist State, but also to mix in some targeted destructions to serve their greater goals. In recent years, see the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 which eradicated evidence against Clinton in his Fannie Mae thefts. Together with Papa Bush deeds, the thefts totaled $1.6 trillion, fully documented by auditor Catherine Austin Fitts (complete with failed murder attempts on her). See the Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill in 2010 (with direct participation by Halliburton thugs). The Halliburton team had acquired scores of on-shore drilling contracts before the ecologically violent deed that shut down the Gulf of Mexico. See the Waco Texas siege in 1993 by officers of the Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms agency. See the Aurora Colorado (Batman movie) public murder spree in 2012. See the Boston Marathon staged bombing in 2013. See the Texas West chemical plant explosion in 2014, actually forecasted by the Jackass in response to the state's formal request to the New York Fed for their gold reserves. These events all occurred in the month April.

Little do followers of the April incidence realize, but the trend pattern extends far back in history. The Satanists have been among us, plying their murderous trade, for centuries. Refer to the April assassination of Abraham Lincoln in 1865, handiwork from the London bankers who boasted of their deed in the major newspapers of London at the time. Refer to the sinking of the Titanic in 1912, with a clever hidden ploy by John Pierpoint Morgan to remove three important business rivals from the New York City scene, effectively kept out of the news. Refer to the assassination of Martin Luther King in 1968, surely the handiwork of the Langley robot crew.

Back three years ago, the Jackass wrote a public article that pointed out the extremely high odds that so many fiery explosive public death events would occur in April. The odds were calculated to be like several million to one, hence hardly random events. Each event should occur with only 1 in 12 chances in April, yet the great majority of such events occur in April. In fact, more such fiery death events of a public nature occur during April, versus all other 11 months combined. To be sure, the week of April 14-20 represents the most violent and tragic week in US history. It has a proximal cause tied to motive among the Satanists, who derive a sociopathic joy from fiery deaths of innocents. See Chron (HERE (http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/article/April-14-20-Historically-America-s-most-5410307.php)).

SATANIST CELEBRATION OF FIRE
They call the event Beltane, the infamous Celebration of Fire among the Satanists. Sadly, these sociopaths are organized. They dominate the entire collection of Western institutions. This sadistic venomous vile group has been exposed in many ways during recent years, to their dismay. They prefer that the society adopt their symbols and use them in seeming harmless ways like on clothing. But such is not the case. Rothschild has seen fit to decorate the city of Toulouse France with countless Satanist symbols in public places, a sure subliminal gesture. The Jackass recalls over a year ago a favorite actor James Woods departed Hollywood, claiming he would never do another film or series, sickened by the penetration of the Satanists in the entertainment business. Even Katie Perry has sold her soul for fame and fortune, with rumors that she had to volunteer as object for sadistic sex parties. The prevalence of their symbols reaches farther than ever before in recent memory.

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Even political and religious figures are involved in the Satanic movement. Notice the Satanic hand signal, which is derived from the devil's horns, used by Obama, Hillary, but also the Pope Ratzinger (aka Pope Malevolent). This vile pope was the only papal leader in a millennium to be forcibly removed from his post, part of a paradigm shift and cleanup process. The climax of the cleanup process might have occurred with the Russian Patriarch met the Fascist Pope a couple of months ago, making an historical pact of secret deals. The sexual perversions of leaders go hand in hand with their Satanic practices. The links among politicians, central bankers, big Western bankers, big Western energy companies, the Vatican with their Black Nobility (aka Illuminati), the European Union Commission, Hollywood directors, and major Western corporations are very firm with a common theme of Satanic servitude and following. Related topics will not be delved into their practice of numerology or child abductions (like the Sandy Hook staged event) or DisneyWorld (its sovereign nation status to protect from missing children). The topic can spawn chapters in numerous directions.

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PREVALENT SATANIST SYMBOLS
As innocent as Halloween and a popular favorite of Devil's Night for mischief, these Satanists enjoy murder, mayhem, war, chaos, and the production of widespread fear. Recall the closing ceremonies for the London 2012 Summer Olympics. It was loaded with Satanic symbols in a shocking display. But it caused a reaction. The following Super Bowl in February 2013 with a New Orleans setting was significant. The electricity supply was cut off at half-time when the long elaborate Satanic display was planned. Beyonce was angry. The sources indicate that the White Hats had endured enough of the Satanic public displays. Notice the obverse of the US$1 bill, with the Satanic symbols of a pyramid and eye. Notice the Proctor & Gamble logo with its Satanic symbols, the array of stars and crescent. The kicker is right under our noses, with the Pentagon being an embodiment of the Satanic pentagram. These symbols are there for all to see, that is for those who choose to look. Some point to the Denver Stapleton Airport for its nazi symbol in art work as well as facility layout, visible from the air. It is CIA West, and a known Satanic center.

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The entertainment field has been a favorite target for Satanists. They can promote their beliefs and symbols in full view in movies, television series, music, and concerts. Their key players are Madonna, Lady Gaga, Katie Perry, Ozzie Osbourne, Marilyn Manson, Rihanna, Beyonce, Jay-Z, Nicki Minaj, Trent Reznor, among others. This is not simply a matter of style, but rather a Satanic infiltration with a dedicated following, a sure purpose, and a gathered following.

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SEVEN BOWLS OF DEATH & PESTILENCE
The Biblical Prophesies cite that during the End Times, the earth will be attacked by Satanists. They will attempt to poison and destroy our world with seven bowls, a metaphor used to describe different avenues. Here is the Jackass interpretation of the details for projects currently underway. This is extremely disturbing.

1) Poison the AIR with chemtrails, a Rockefeller project closely associated with Agenda-21, whereby the air is filled with benzene and aluminum particles. The former is pure poison. The latter advances Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases, the radical rises already noted. The cover is global warming, a widespread ruse by the banker cabal to tax the air we breathe.
2) Poison the WATER with fracking procedures done by Halliburton, where toxic chemicals are injected into the water table. They are protected by USCongress laws on what is injected. Also the ocean is rumored to be contaminated by Halliburton also, where they systematically dump radioactive cesium off the California coast, only to blame the noted cancer rise on Fukushima. Other fracking firms do not dump additional toxins like Halliburton.
3) Poison the FOOD with Monsanto and their aggressive Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) program. It is rumored to be an elaborate virus delivery system with designed infertility in humans just like with crops (no seeds in crop output). The pesticides also produced by Monsanto are associated with vast sweeping deaths of the global bee population.
4) Poison the MONEY with the US Federal Reserve monetary policy of Quantitative Easing, which is hyper monetary inflation in African style by any other name. The global reaction has been to bring the USDollar into a retirement and phase-out. The Jackass has been explaining for over three years that QE kills capital.
5) Poison the VACCINES by directly infusing them with the disease they are supposed to protect against, with a few zinger extra additives like mercury and formaldehyde. In recent reports, they have been found to include immune system suppressants.
6) Poison the ECONOMY with endless war, under the false flag of fighting terrorism, and under the ruse of fomenting color revolutions. The real motive is to interrupt the Russian energy supply to Europe, thus the Ukraine War, and to stop the Iranian gas supply to Europe, thus the Syrian War.
7) Poison the SOCIETY with the Arab refugee influx, all sponsored by the Western Elite leaders, with national laws all bypassed. Their passage is routinely paid by USGovt and Soros Foundation NGO organizations, but the Austrian Govt intelligence revealed the connection. This critical step aligns with the 1900 Pike Cabal designed plan for creating a world war of Christianity versus Islam. The Jackass correctly forecasted a violent ISIS-type event in August 2015 in a major European city. It happened with the staged Paris deadly event in September, the next month.

NEW SCHEISS DOLLAR & GOLD TRADE STANDARD
In time, expect an eventual refusal by Eastern producing nations to accept USTreasury Bills in payment for trade. The IMF reversal decision assures this USTBill blockade in time, and might accelerate the timetable. The United States Govt cannot continue on five glaring fronts of gross negligence and major violations. These violations have prompted the BRICS & Alliance nations to hasten their development of diverse non-USD platforms toward the goal of displacing the USDollar while at the same time take steps toward the return of the Gold Standard. The violations are:
1) to import finished goods and crude commodities, paying with IOU coupons
2) to commit multi-$trillion bond fraud in its big banks, done without legal prosecution
3) to do QE bond purchases in applied hyper monetary inflation, monetizing debt
4) to rig all major financial markets in favor of the primal USDollar
5) to engage in numerous regional wars to support the USDollar.

The New Scheiss Dollar will arrive in order to assure continued import supply to the USEconomy. It will be given a 30% devaluation out of the gate, then many more devaluations of similar variety. The New Dollar will fail all foreign and Eastern scrutiny. The USGovt will be forced to react to USTBill rejection at the ports. The US must accommodate with the New Scheiss Dollar in order to assure import supply, and to alleviate the many stalemates to come. The United States finds itself on the slippery slope that leads to the Third World, a Jackass forecast that has been presented since Lehman fell (better described as killed by JPM and GSax). The only apparent alternative is for the United States Govt to lease a large amount of gold bullion (like 10,000 tons) from China in order to properly launch a gold-backed currency. Doing so would open the gates for a generation of commercial colonization, but actual progress in returning capitalism to the United States. The cost would be supply shortages to the USEconomy, a result of enormous export increases to China. The colonization has already begun, with secret deals galore. As Ron Paul has stated, one cannot blame capitalism for the current failure, since we have had almost none!

The Gold price will find its true value and price over $10,000 per ounce. The Silver price will find its true value and price over $300 per ounce. In reaching these levels, the ratio will return to the 30-1 range. Several steps have been laid out by the Hat Trick Letter toward the return of proper price to precious metals. The major upcoming events will be exciting to watch unfold, one after the other, in an inevitable sequence away from fascism and concentrated uni-polar power, with a strong movement toward freedom and equitable systems with distributed power. The steps will each involve a quantum jump in the Gold & Silver prices. The process will take a few years, but might be breath-taking in speed once the process is begun. The steps involve:

the critical mass of rejected USTBills in trade settlement, citing its corrupt roots and illicit monetary policy as foundation
the return to the Gold Trade Standard and introduction of Gold Trade Notes as letters of credit, in replacement for a fair tangible payment system (no more IOU coupons)
the recapitalization of the global banking system with Gold as primary reserve asset, so as to relieve the grotesque stagnation, insolvency, and dysfunction
the seeking of equilibrium in Supply vs Demand in the new fair uninhibited market, with exclusive control removed from London and New York, and placed elsewhere like in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore.
the seeding of BRICS gold & silver backed currencies from participating nations within the Alliance (likely several with slight variation in features)
the re-opening of the gold mine industry with some blue sky, and relief from the Evergreen element at Barrick
the remedy toward owners of over 40,000 tons of rehypothecated and stolen gold in bullion banks across the world (primarily in Switzerland.

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