Large Sarge
5th September 2010, 08:30 AM
Please See in BOLD/ UNDERLINED BELOW
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
This Blog
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Commentary Sept 4.2010 ....extremely important
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
I am now back in Canada having spent 5 days with my good friend Dr Willie Molloy in Ireland.
I will report on the economic problems of the Republic of Ireland, especially with its number one
problem, the Anglo Irish Bank starting next week.
Before commencing with my regular commentary, I would like to report that Sheila Bair of the FDIC gave
the USA another week of reprieve..there were no failures even though she announced that the banks at risk
rose into the 800's from the 700 level.
Yesterday was the release of the jobs numbers and it was the usual routine where the bankers attempted to raid both silver
and gold. The release of the non farm payrolls always comes out on the first Friday of the month and everybody expects
a raid on the precious metals. Last month was the first time the raid failed.
I will go into the non farm payroll numbers later in the report, but I can safely say that that the cartel got stuffed again yesterday
as the demand for the physical metals around the world handcuffs the cartel in their attempt to manipulate these precious metals
markets.
Gold closed down $2.30 to 1249.20. Gold, at one point, early in the session, touched $1237.60. From its nadir, gold rose rapaidly to touch $1250
before backing off slightly to 1249.20 which is its official close. There is an access market operating after 1:30 pm but the market is thin and
cartel bankers often try and influence markets for the next trading week.
The real standout was silver. First of all, silver closed at $19.91 at the official close. The final price at INO.com was $19.96 in the access
market.
Here is a 5 year chart on silver and please note that we are rapidly coming to its previous high of 20.64 in Sept 2008:
Spot Silver - 5 Years
Update Chart
END-
end.
The gold comex OI continues to rise with Friday's number coming in at 582,029 for a rise of 2,896
contracts as the large specs take on the commercials.
In the silver comex, the OI rose by 1383 contracts with the bankers supplying the necessary unbacked
paper and the large and small speculators piling into this metal. Please remember that this number is basis
Thursday night as we are always 24 hours behind.
The Committment of Traders report released after the market closed revealed exactly what we thought was
happening...the bankers supplying the paper and speculators sensing blood piling into the metals. Here is the release of the report:
COT Gold, Silver (this report is basis Tuesday night)
Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
272,509
34,432
67,118
171,275
455,836
510,902
557,386
Change from Prior Reporting Period
16,265
-621
1,842
-1,254
19,007
16,853
20,228
Traders
209
54
63
42
60
277
155
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
66,450
19,966
577,352
4,035
660
20,888
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report - Position
In gold: we find that those large speculators that were long in gold increased those positions by a massive 16,265 contracts.
those large speculators that were short gold reduced their shorts by a tiny 621 contracts.
in the all important commercial sector:
those commercials that have been long reduced those longs by a tiny 1254 positions.
But look at those that were short: they increased those short positions by a massive 19007 contracts.
in the small spec category: those that were long increased their longs by 4035 and those that were short increased those
positions by 660 contracts.
Ladies and Gentlemen: It does not seem to me that JPMorgan and partners in crime are getting out of the proprietary trading platforms.
There is a section in the new act which exempts them in derivative trades with respect to silver and gold and that
is what these criminal banks are relying on in continuing to carry out their nefarious activities.
And now for the all important star of the week, silver:
Silver COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
54,472
9,659
22,086
27,884
87,261
104,442
119,006
12,217
2,211
-1,363
-3,422
5,103
7,432
5,951
Traders
99
31
29
31
40
144
88
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
26,371
11,807
130,813
-804
677
6,628
You can see that those large speculators that were long increased those positions by a very very healthy 12,217 contracts.
Those that were short increased those short positions by 2211 contracts.
In the all important commercial category, those commercials which have been long reduced their longs by a large 3422 contracts.
This is the same as going more short. But please look at the commercial short: Those commercials who have been perennially short
increased their shorts by a monstrous 5103 contracts.
Forget the small speculators..JPMorgan and the boys obliterated them a while ago and these guys are afraid to put their toes in the water
Thus the rise in silver is from large players and they are certainly taking on the banking cartel.
Lets get a closer look at the inventory at the comex and the notices to deliver to get an idea of what is going on:
Here is a chart on the Friday's physical movements:
Silver
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory zero oz
Withdrawals from customer Inventory n/a
Deposits to the dealer Inventory n/a
Deposits to the customer Inventory 492,243
No of oz served (contracts=ZERO ) zero
No of oz to be served 1807 contracts) 9,035,000
Gold
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory n/a
Withdrawals from customer Inventory
Deposits to the dealer Inventory 386
Deposits to the customer Inventory 418
No of oz served (contracts = 20 2000 oz
No of oz to be served xxxxx
Before starting, the comex announced a startling 330,702 oz of gold transferred from the customer inventory to the dealer by way of an internal transfer.
This is approximately 10.3 tonnes of gold This is always a lease whereby the customer receives a handsome premium for loaning his gold for a short period of time.
The customer is of course, praying that he gets his gold back before the next delivery month.
In the comex gold, September is a non delivery month and the only way gold is obtained is through the exercise of a Sept gold options contract.
Yesterday there was a rather large 20 options exercised for gold totalling 2000 oz of gold.
The total number of notices served thus far in this non delivery month of Sept total 301 or 30100 oz of gold or about 0.94 tonnes of gold.
Looks to me like there is going to be huge amounts of options exercised. We will have to wait until the end of the month to see how much will stand.
Generally all those that are exercising gold contracts in Sept stand for physical metal.
And now for the all important silver notices and inventory:
In a very startling development, there were zero oz of silver notices sent out in this delivery month of Sept. As this is the first part of the month,
I must shake my head in bewilderment. This is totally earth-shaking. Usually the dealer tries to offload all his metal early in the month due to massive
storage fees and insurance etc. The fact that zero notices were tendered means no metal is available.
On top of that the open interest on the delivery month of Sept showed that it increased from 1787 to 1807 for a gain of 20 contracts for 100,000 oz
I must also alert you that 2 million oz of silver were removed on Sept 3.2010. These long holders probably got a handsome reward in cash not to take delivery.
They took the cash and rolled to December. They too are praying that they did not make a mistake and take delivery this month.
The total notices sent out so far in this delivery month is a tiny 709 contracts or a tiny 3.545 million oz.
The OI that remains as I indicated is 1807 contracts or 9.035 million oz.
The total numer of oz of silver standing in this delivery month is:
3.545 million (already served) + 9.035 million oz (to be served) + 115,000 oz (options exercised from previous month)= 12.69 million oz of silver.
I must point out that even though this figure is low, we are hearing reports that volume at the LBMA in silver and gold are dropping off in increasing numbers.
This is due to the fact that many players have decided to take their physical metal out of the London and thus the cartel bankers have to call in much of their derivative
100:1 leverage trades. Volume has contracted in silver by over 35% in the past few months.
A failure to deliver will commence first at the LBMA and then onto the comex.
The action yesterday on the gold and silver comex strikes me that the bankers are having midnight meetings to discuss what on earth they are
going to do when a failure occurs.
Please look at this announcement a few days ago where the IMF announced the release of 16.85 tonnes of gold and our friends, the Russians
added 16.2 tonnes of gold to its official reserves. I would also like to emphasize that although China does not announe its increase in official
gold holdings, it definitely engages in that activity.
China produces around 309 tonnes of gold per year. They have been going after the higher grades first which will certaintly hurt them in a few years
when they go after the lower grade stuff. They are very anxious to get as much gold out as possible.
China's demand for gold is around 440 tonnes per year. Thus they must import at least 29 tonnes of gold from the markets just to satisfy demand
for its citizens. This does not include official reserves. You can bet the farm that they would at least import 20 tonnes of gold to keep up with the Russians
adding to their official reserves.
Here is the report on the IMF sell of 16.85 tonnes of gold.
IMF Gold Assets Fall 16.85 Tons as Russia Adds to its Holdings
By Claudia Carpenter
www.businessweeknews.com
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
LONDON -- The International Monetary Fund's gold reserves fell by 16.85 metric tons in July as Russia added 16.2 tons to its holdings, according to figures from the Washington-based lender.
Reserves of gold at the IMF were 2,917.07 tons at the end of July, compared with 2,933.92 tons a month earlier, data on the IMF's website show. Russia increased holdings to 726.02 tons last month from 709.81 tons, according to the figures.
The IMF plans to sell a total of 403.3 tons of gold. India, Mauritius, and Sri Lanka bought 212 tons last year, and the IMF in February said it would begin selling the remainder on the open market.
Central banks have increased holdings and gold-backed exchange-traded fund assets owned by investors yesterday climbed to the highest since at least 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,249.15 an ounce at 8:06 a.m. in London. Prices climbed to a record $1,265.30 on June 21.
end.
The big news this week is Ron Paul suggesting to Congress that they must audit the gold holdings at Fort Knox:
Ron Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed
By Michael O'Brien - 08/30/10 10:21 AM ET
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said he plans to introduce legislation next year to force an audit of U.S. holdings of gold.
Paul, a longtime critic of the Federal Reserve and U.S. monetary policy, said he believes it's "a possibility" that there might not actually be any gold in the vaults of Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve bank.
The libertarian lawmaker told Kitco News, a website tracking news about precious metals, that an audit was necessary to determine how much the U.S. maintains in gold reserves in case the government were to use gold to back the dollar.
“If there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there,†he said.
“Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing, and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?
end.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
This Blog
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Commentary Sept 4.2010 ....extremely important
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
I am now back in Canada having spent 5 days with my good friend Dr Willie Molloy in Ireland.
I will report on the economic problems of the Republic of Ireland, especially with its number one
problem, the Anglo Irish Bank starting next week.
Before commencing with my regular commentary, I would like to report that Sheila Bair of the FDIC gave
the USA another week of reprieve..there were no failures even though she announced that the banks at risk
rose into the 800's from the 700 level.
Yesterday was the release of the jobs numbers and it was the usual routine where the bankers attempted to raid both silver
and gold. The release of the non farm payrolls always comes out on the first Friday of the month and everybody expects
a raid on the precious metals. Last month was the first time the raid failed.
I will go into the non farm payroll numbers later in the report, but I can safely say that that the cartel got stuffed again yesterday
as the demand for the physical metals around the world handcuffs the cartel in their attempt to manipulate these precious metals
markets.
Gold closed down $2.30 to 1249.20. Gold, at one point, early in the session, touched $1237.60. From its nadir, gold rose rapaidly to touch $1250
before backing off slightly to 1249.20 which is its official close. There is an access market operating after 1:30 pm but the market is thin and
cartel bankers often try and influence markets for the next trading week.
The real standout was silver. First of all, silver closed at $19.91 at the official close. The final price at INO.com was $19.96 in the access
market.
Here is a 5 year chart on silver and please note that we are rapidly coming to its previous high of 20.64 in Sept 2008:
Spot Silver - 5 Years
Update Chart
END-
end.
The gold comex OI continues to rise with Friday's number coming in at 582,029 for a rise of 2,896
contracts as the large specs take on the commercials.
In the silver comex, the OI rose by 1383 contracts with the bankers supplying the necessary unbacked
paper and the large and small speculators piling into this metal. Please remember that this number is basis
Thursday night as we are always 24 hours behind.
The Committment of Traders report released after the market closed revealed exactly what we thought was
happening...the bankers supplying the paper and speculators sensing blood piling into the metals. Here is the release of the report:
COT Gold, Silver (this report is basis Tuesday night)
Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
272,509
34,432
67,118
171,275
455,836
510,902
557,386
Change from Prior Reporting Period
16,265
-621
1,842
-1,254
19,007
16,853
20,228
Traders
209
54
63
42
60
277
155
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
66,450
19,966
577,352
4,035
660
20,888
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report - Position
In gold: we find that those large speculators that were long in gold increased those positions by a massive 16,265 contracts.
those large speculators that were short gold reduced their shorts by a tiny 621 contracts.
in the all important commercial sector:
those commercials that have been long reduced those longs by a tiny 1254 positions.
But look at those that were short: they increased those short positions by a massive 19007 contracts.
in the small spec category: those that were long increased their longs by 4035 and those that were short increased those
positions by 660 contracts.
Ladies and Gentlemen: It does not seem to me that JPMorgan and partners in crime are getting out of the proprietary trading platforms.
There is a section in the new act which exempts them in derivative trades with respect to silver and gold and that
is what these criminal banks are relying on in continuing to carry out their nefarious activities.
And now for the all important star of the week, silver:
Silver COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
54,472
9,659
22,086
27,884
87,261
104,442
119,006
12,217
2,211
-1,363
-3,422
5,103
7,432
5,951
Traders
99
31
29
31
40
144
88
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
26,371
11,807
130,813
-804
677
6,628
You can see that those large speculators that were long increased those positions by a very very healthy 12,217 contracts.
Those that were short increased those short positions by 2211 contracts.
In the all important commercial category, those commercials which have been long reduced their longs by a large 3422 contracts.
This is the same as going more short. But please look at the commercial short: Those commercials who have been perennially short
increased their shorts by a monstrous 5103 contracts.
Forget the small speculators..JPMorgan and the boys obliterated them a while ago and these guys are afraid to put their toes in the water
Thus the rise in silver is from large players and they are certainly taking on the banking cartel.
Lets get a closer look at the inventory at the comex and the notices to deliver to get an idea of what is going on:
Here is a chart on the Friday's physical movements:
Silver
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory zero oz
Withdrawals from customer Inventory n/a
Deposits to the dealer Inventory n/a
Deposits to the customer Inventory 492,243
No of oz served (contracts=ZERO ) zero
No of oz to be served 1807 contracts) 9,035,000
Gold
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory n/a
Withdrawals from customer Inventory
Deposits to the dealer Inventory 386
Deposits to the customer Inventory 418
No of oz served (contracts = 20 2000 oz
No of oz to be served xxxxx
Before starting, the comex announced a startling 330,702 oz of gold transferred from the customer inventory to the dealer by way of an internal transfer.
This is approximately 10.3 tonnes of gold This is always a lease whereby the customer receives a handsome premium for loaning his gold for a short period of time.
The customer is of course, praying that he gets his gold back before the next delivery month.
In the comex gold, September is a non delivery month and the only way gold is obtained is through the exercise of a Sept gold options contract.
Yesterday there was a rather large 20 options exercised for gold totalling 2000 oz of gold.
The total number of notices served thus far in this non delivery month of Sept total 301 or 30100 oz of gold or about 0.94 tonnes of gold.
Looks to me like there is going to be huge amounts of options exercised. We will have to wait until the end of the month to see how much will stand.
Generally all those that are exercising gold contracts in Sept stand for physical metal.
And now for the all important silver notices and inventory:
In a very startling development, there were zero oz of silver notices sent out in this delivery month of Sept. As this is the first part of the month,
I must shake my head in bewilderment. This is totally earth-shaking. Usually the dealer tries to offload all his metal early in the month due to massive
storage fees and insurance etc. The fact that zero notices were tendered means no metal is available.
On top of that the open interest on the delivery month of Sept showed that it increased from 1787 to 1807 for a gain of 20 contracts for 100,000 oz
I must also alert you that 2 million oz of silver were removed on Sept 3.2010. These long holders probably got a handsome reward in cash not to take delivery.
They took the cash and rolled to December. They too are praying that they did not make a mistake and take delivery this month.
The total notices sent out so far in this delivery month is a tiny 709 contracts or a tiny 3.545 million oz.
The OI that remains as I indicated is 1807 contracts or 9.035 million oz.
The total numer of oz of silver standing in this delivery month is:
3.545 million (already served) + 9.035 million oz (to be served) + 115,000 oz (options exercised from previous month)= 12.69 million oz of silver.
I must point out that even though this figure is low, we are hearing reports that volume at the LBMA in silver and gold are dropping off in increasing numbers.
This is due to the fact that many players have decided to take their physical metal out of the London and thus the cartel bankers have to call in much of their derivative
100:1 leverage trades. Volume has contracted in silver by over 35% in the past few months.
A failure to deliver will commence first at the LBMA and then onto the comex.
The action yesterday on the gold and silver comex strikes me that the bankers are having midnight meetings to discuss what on earth they are
going to do when a failure occurs.
Please look at this announcement a few days ago where the IMF announced the release of 16.85 tonnes of gold and our friends, the Russians
added 16.2 tonnes of gold to its official reserves. I would also like to emphasize that although China does not announe its increase in official
gold holdings, it definitely engages in that activity.
China produces around 309 tonnes of gold per year. They have been going after the higher grades first which will certaintly hurt them in a few years
when they go after the lower grade stuff. They are very anxious to get as much gold out as possible.
China's demand for gold is around 440 tonnes per year. Thus they must import at least 29 tonnes of gold from the markets just to satisfy demand
for its citizens. This does not include official reserves. You can bet the farm that they would at least import 20 tonnes of gold to keep up with the Russians
adding to their official reserves.
Here is the report on the IMF sell of 16.85 tonnes of gold.
IMF Gold Assets Fall 16.85 Tons as Russia Adds to its Holdings
By Claudia Carpenter
www.businessweeknews.com
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
LONDON -- The International Monetary Fund's gold reserves fell by 16.85 metric tons in July as Russia added 16.2 tons to its holdings, according to figures from the Washington-based lender.
Reserves of gold at the IMF were 2,917.07 tons at the end of July, compared with 2,933.92 tons a month earlier, data on the IMF's website show. Russia increased holdings to 726.02 tons last month from 709.81 tons, according to the figures.
The IMF plans to sell a total of 403.3 tons of gold. India, Mauritius, and Sri Lanka bought 212 tons last year, and the IMF in February said it would begin selling the remainder on the open market.
Central banks have increased holdings and gold-backed exchange-traded fund assets owned by investors yesterday climbed to the highest since at least 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,249.15 an ounce at 8:06 a.m. in London. Prices climbed to a record $1,265.30 on June 21.
end.
The big news this week is Ron Paul suggesting to Congress that they must audit the gold holdings at Fort Knox:
Ron Paul questions whether there's gold at Fort Knox, NY Fed
By Michael O'Brien - 08/30/10 10:21 AM ET
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) said he plans to introduce legislation next year to force an audit of U.S. holdings of gold.
Paul, a longtime critic of the Federal Reserve and U.S. monetary policy, said he believes it's "a possibility" that there might not actually be any gold in the vaults of Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve bank.
The libertarian lawmaker told Kitco News, a website tracking news about precious metals, that an audit was necessary to determine how much the U.S. maintains in gold reserves in case the government were to use gold to back the dollar.
“If there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there,†he said.
“Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing, and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?
end.