Mamboni's Metal Mania!!!

[osoab]

Perhaps I'm a bit jumpy from all the trolling going on here of late, and total lack of substantive discussions on gold and silver amidst the historic immolation of the dollar-based world financial system.

Capeche?


Link to orgininal thread (http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/anyone-have-any-experience-dealing-with-a-sociopath/)

;D

http://gold-silver.us/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=3665;type=avatar


This thread is dedicated to the Good Doctor Mamboni.

I too share the Good Doctor's malaise due to the lack of discussion on the those worthless relics we all hold dear. The lack of discussion has been disheartening to say the least. That which brought us together either here or at GIM has been lacking of late. Our direction has been altered. We need to correct our course with due haste. The greatest Gold Bull in history is running and we are picking our collective nostrils and flinging dried mucous at one another.

With that out of the way, I invite all members of GSUS to share what the feel is moving the market. We should all be able to profit in what seems to be a destined path into oblivion. And if our luck be good, maybe the Good Doctor will grace us with his wisdom and market observations.

I would also like to add into our discourse the subject of the soil slingers, with the Good Doctor's permission of course. Along with these horrendous relics we all worship, those that produce these damnations of fiat banking have great potential to bring us untold riches. I feel that we would miss our full potential without proper asset allocation into some of these fine enterprises.

So what say yee GSUS, what is more important than Gold, Silver, Platinum, Paladium, Copper, Zinc, Iron, Lead, REE's, and the Good Doctor's obsession with metal objects?

To start this thread off are two charts for gold after close on September 24, 2010. A new all time high closing was achieved by GOLD today @

$1298.10

at the close of COMEX. No link provided. Find it yourselves. ;D

Gold also hit it's all time high of $1301.30 during the day.

Silver finished near it's high for the day in the after hours market.

No link provided. Find it yourselves. ;D

Platinum and Palladium have yet to reach their perspective highs again. I would gander that Palladium will be the first to make a new high between the two.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif

http://www.kitconet.com/images/sp_en_6.gif

and look at Gold's little brother, just look at it.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif

What a day folks. What a day. We should all be dancing jigs out in the street right now. http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n33/kyndle_1999/Funny_Pictures_Animated_Dancing_Ban.gif


What follows in this thread should always be utilized with the proper due diligence on the part of the reader. None of the following blather in this thread should be construed as investment advise, just measly observations of morons. Most are just ramblings of semi-psychotic sycophants. ;D

Edit for spelling and dancing banana.

[zap]

All the charts mean is it is going to get worse, pretty quick.

[osoab]

All the charts mean is it is going to get worse, pretty quick.


I would not deny that. But the jist of the charts is for what has occurred in gold the past week.

Even if things go into the crapper, there is no reason why we can't make out like bandits.

[1970 silver art]

It was a very good day and a very good week for the metals. I liked the action on silver, however, I think that silver will pull back some to the $20.00-$20.50 range before it resumes its run. I think that $20 is the new support level for silver but it will get tested. That is just a WAG on silver. I think that gold will also pull back some to the $1200-$1230 range before it resumes it run. That is just a WAG on gold. The metals are very strong and any healthy pullback is good in my opinion. We will see what happens.

[osoab]

Ok folks,

Who is lookin at what miners. The REE (rare earth elements not to be confuse with REE ticker symbol on AMEX) miners have been on fire after China stopped exports of REE's to Japan, stocks have been jumping.

Molycorp, REE, and Lynas are 3 to look at.

REE has been up close to 30% in two days. REE is also RES on the Toronto exchange.

Molycorp is MCP on the NYSE has gone from 16-27.80 in a month.

Lynas trades on the ASX. There might be a OCB for them.

I'm out of current ammo now. Missed REE. I was still doing my diligence.

[osoab]

It was a very good day and a very good week for the metals. I liked the action on silver, however, I think that silver will pull back some to the $20.00-$20.50 range before it resumes its run. I think that $20 is the new support level for silver but it will get tested. That is just a WAG on silver. I think that gold will also pull back some to the $1200-$1230 range before it resumes it run. That is just a WAG on gold. The metals are very strong and any healthy pullback is good in my opinion. We will see what happens.




I don't know about that pull back art. I expected it by now. If we go back to $1200, I would be shocked I tell ya.

I would expect silver to follow golds fall into next week's options expiration. Expiration is what I have been watching currently.

Going by Dmac's thread, Gold options is this Monday the 27 and silver Sept futures trade last on the 28. Banks will lose big money if the price is not knocked down.

I'll have to look over @ Harvey Organs's site to see some numbers. Then, again, I may have this whole expiration stuff all wrong.

If we get back to $20 silver I'm heading to a certain local shop. I won't say silver won't go back to $20, silver gets smacked down more than a red-headed step child.

[osoab]

I don't know if anyone has looked at this site before, but Mining Nerds (http://www.miningnerds.com/) has some good info.

I just found this site too. I was looking for short positions on specific stocks. http://shortsqueeze.com/

Please consider me a total noob with a small bankroll when it comes to stocks and trading. I do however have the ability to watch them throughout the day (got to love a desk job). So I am watching the trends and the action.

If anyone finds fault in anything I spew, please set me straight.

[mamboni]

I’m rather fatigued after several months of intense reading of financial and economic analyses and watching the goings on in the markets with emphasis on the metals. While I do trade some stocks for short term gains, I am primarily a long term investor trying to capitalize on long term macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary and supply/demand variables. So for me, some bottom line observations and principles:

1. The fiat money system has completely broken from real world price discovery and fundamentals. If you trade in this environment, you are operating an Alice in Wonderland world where the basic rules of economics are routinely bent and often broken (to wit: todays mini DOW rally vis-Ã*-vis the US’ horrific balance sheet and crumbling economy).

2. Gold and silver are still greatly undervalued in dollar terms because of systematic and long term price suppression and warped demand psychology (i.e. the vast majority of investors do not understand or appreciate that gold and silver are money and are woefully underinvested).

3. The dollar has lost all it’s underpinnings and is operating purely on budgetary and ownership inertia and the legal tender prop, it’s velocity declining daily. As the US and world debt bubble grows and grows, monetization will have increasingly diminishing effects on economic activity. That the United States will default on it’s debt obligations and the dollar will collapse is now a mathematical certainty. The only questions are how and when.

4. The entire world wealth is held in the form of paper promises with no chance of being honored in the future. The US treasury bubble grows and grows as the masses chase yield today and dangerously discounting devaluation in the future. In part, this is due to investment myopia and ignorance of gold’s historic role as the ultimate foundation and anchor of all material wealth.

5. We will have a crisis wherein paper currencies will rapidly devalue. The entire paper money system is floating unattached to ground (gold). One short in the right place will cause a massive discharge and commence the collapse.

6. The DOW and US stock markets have no correlation with US economic performance and have ceased to function as price discovery mechanisms. The markets are being blatantly bid up by the FED MOPO.


What this means is you must own physical gold and silver above all other tangible investments. Other metals and commodities are good and will see remarkable price appreciation as the dollar devalues. But gold and silver, particularly the latter because it is consumed and supply and inventories are at all time unprecedented historic lows, will best them all. The day after dollar Armageddon, gold and silver will be reinstalled in their rightful places as the only durable and true anchors of wealth. It is imperative that you accumulate these metals now, even at these prices which in time will seem bargains, because the fiat money system is at high risk of sudden collapse. Things could deteriorate over the next few years, or an unforeseen crisis could trigger precipitous collapse in weeks or months.

[osoab]

What this means is you must own physical gold and silver above all other tangible investments. Other metals and commodities are good and will see remarkable price appreciation as the dollar devalues. But gold and silver, particularly the latter because it is consumed and supply and inventories are at all time unprecedented historic lows, will best them all. The day after dollar Armageddon, gold and silver will be reinstalled in their rightful places as the only durable and true anchors of wealth. It is imperative that you accumulate these metals now, even at these prices which in time will seem bargains, because the fiat money system is at high risk of sudden collapse. Things could deteriorate over the next few years, or an unforeseen crisis could trigger precipitous collapse in weeks or months.


If we have total Armageddon, with a dollar collapse, we should see some new type/form of currency that will arise. Unless there is a total global annihilation, the markets will come back. It may take a few months or a year, but they will unless the crap really hits the fan. Our greed will force us to get markets open quickly.

Diversification is the key. A core holding as you suggest with accumulation is the way to go. I have no issues with my efforts to divest myself of FRN's into some shiny relics.

I see the equities as another hedge to the metals themselves. Without selling our core positions, we can trade the swing in the prices. Even if we pay our standard tax bracket, the profits beat working our deriers off. Why not click the mouse?

I don't want people to open a brokerage account and start trading tomorrow solely on what my be typed on this forum or any other site. That would be wreckless.

I want people to learn and think. Keep that brain chugging along. I know it's talking to the peanut galley currently, but there is always the new guy/gal that comes along.

I agree with all your points above Mamboni. The final end game is what is up in the air. The whole economic catastrophe becomes stale after awhile, though. Chasing equities, speeds the ticker up a bit and keeps the mind sharp.

I hope you don't mind that I use your name for the title of the thread. I plan on keeping it going.
Your post was the shove to start something that has been brewing in my head for awhile.

If anything, I expect this thread to just help myself with my own thoughts on equities and the markets.

[mamboni]

What this means is you must own physical gold and silver above all other tangible investments. Other metals and commodities are good and will see remarkable price appreciation as the dollar devalues. But gold and silver, particularly the latter because it is consumed and supply and inventories are at all time unprecedented historic lows, will best them all. The day after dollar Armageddon, gold and silver will be reinstalled in their rightful places as the only durable and true anchors of wealth. It is imperative that you accumulate these metals now, even at these prices which in time will seem bargains, because the fiat money system is at high risk of sudden collapse. Things could deteriorate over the next few years, or an unforeseen crisis could trigger precipitous collapse in weeks or months.


If we have total Armageddon, with a dollar collapse, we should see some new type/form of currency that will arise. Unless there is a total global annihilation, the markets will come back. It may take a few months or a year, but they will unless the crap really hits the fan. Our greed will force us to get markets open quickly.

Diversification is the key. A core holding as you suggest with accumulation is the way to go. I have no issues with my efforts to divest myself of FRN's into some shiny relics.

I see the equities as another hedge to the metals themselves. Without selling our core positions, we can trade the swing in the prices. Even if we pay our standard tax bracket, the profits beat working our deriers off. Why not click the mouse?

I don't want people to open a brokerage account and start trading tomorrow solely on what my be typed on this forum or any other site. That would be wreckless.

I want people to learn and think. Keep that brain chugging along. I know it's talking to the peanut galley currently, but there is always the new guy/gal that comes along.

I agree with all your points above Mamboni. The final end game is what is up in the air. The whole economic catastrophe becomes stale after awhile, though. Chasing equities, speeds the ticker up a bit and keeps the mind sharp.

I hope you don't mind that I use your name for the title of the thread. I plan on keeping it going.
Your post was the shove to start something that has been brewing in my head for awhile.

If anything, I expect this thread to just help myself with my own thoughts on equities and the markets.


Yeah, keep it going. We've got to get back on track here.

[Neuro]

I may certainly be wrong, but I don't think we'll see a pullback next week, we are IMO in a short squeeze of universal justice. Certainly the paperplayers powers that be could squeeze the price down next week, but they'll break the system by doing it, they don't have enough physical to do it, resulting in a COMEX collapse = end of their paper games. They don't want that so they have to eat their sour grapes...

I expect prices of silver and gold to go up rapidly next week... The paper players will lick their wounds and regroup at 25 bucks silver or so!

[gunDriller]

a lot of the current buying is traders who have no loyalty to the barbarous relic.

they will sell opportunistically. next week, next month, who knows.

in the meantime, the US will print another few hundred $billion. further dooming the US $ as it competes with other nations, competitive currency devaluation that is.

maybe it'll be a sport at the 2014 Winter Olympics ? it does seem like more of a Winter sport, currency devaluation is normally done indoors.

[Ragnarok]

For currency devaluation to qualify as a Winter Olympics event the medals would have to be appropriately altered as follows, for this event only of course:

GOLD plated tungsten,
SILVER plated lead, and
BRONZE plated zinc

R. ;D

[madfranks]

3. The dollar has lost all it’s underpinnings and is operating purely on budgetary and ownership inertia and the legal tender prop, it’s velocity declining daily. As the US and world debt bubble grows and grows, monetization will have increasingly diminishing effects on economic activity. That the United States will default on it’s debt obligations and the dollar will collapse is now a mathematical certainty. The only questions are how and when.



We're already $40 billion into quantitative easing part-two, this time with no limit declared to how much they will print to ease the markets. However, I don't think we're at the breaking point of the dollar yet, there is still lots and lots of demand across the world for dollars. Other fiat currencies are collapsing faster than the dollar and are being replaced by the dollar. Recent dollarization in Latin America and elsewhere, along with the fact that the dollar still remains the world reserve currency, insures that, at least for the current time, dollars will continue to find a home across the world. If it weren't for this fact that we can export the inflation and devaluation of the dollar overseas, the dollar would have collapsed a long time ago.

[osoab]

We are missing posts that occurred yesterday after madfranks' post

I saved a copy of this thread before I called it an evening. I can post what is missing later if people want it.

Unless the missing posts and threads all show back up again.

[gunDriller]

For currency devaluation to qualify as a Winter Olympics event the medals would have to be appropriately altered as follows, for this event only of course:

GOLD plated tungsten,
SILVER plated lead, and
BRONZE plated zinc

R. ;D


finally !

an event where Israel can be competitive. :o

[osoab]

Looks like gold has to be held under 1300 for today so none of the 1300 calls are in the money.

We have touched there a couple times early today.

How low will we go?

Anyone got the time the for the london fix?

[osoab]

Well, it looks like 1300 wasn't breached and held for the day.

I wonder if Jamie Dimon was yelling at the trading desks to day to supress, supress, supress. :D

Since end of Q3 is on Thursday, I wonder if the price will be held down the majority of the week,

Wouldn't mutual funds/ hedge funds be booking profits prior to the end of quarter to make their books look full of obama hope?

[osoab]

I may certainly be wrong, but I don't think we'll see a pullback next week, we are IMO in a short squeeze of universal justice. Certainly the paperplayers powers that be could squeeze the price down next week, but they'll break the system by doing it, they don't have enough physical to do it, resulting in a COMEX collapse = end of their paper games. They don't want that so they have to eat their sour grapes...

I expect prices of silver and gold to go up rapidly next week... The paper players will lick their wounds and regroup at 25 bucks silver or so!


My reply was lost during the move.

Let's just be happy the silver wasn't lost. :D


Re: Mamboni's Metal Mania!!!
Sat, Sept 25,210 « Reply #14 on: Today at 04:28:02 PM


I'm thinking 1350 gold could very well occur. Silver has no reason not to get close to 22. I have kept thinking that a
major smackdown in prices would have occurred by now.

I don't see a COMEX collapse happening anytime soon. TPTB will do their best to buy off people with paper money or paper gold. If someone starts to make waves, I would expect the SEC goon squad to show up and find irregularities with the trouble makers. They will shut them down to shut them up. The MSM wing will do their part to construe reality too. Either way, this will be a fun start to the week.



Not much an interesting start. :-\

[osoab]

This was a reply to Mamboni's post by Quixote2
I am not reposting the quoted text from Mamboni.
I will remove this if Quixote2 requests. I felt this was too good of a post to have lost.



By Quixote2

Re: Mamboni's Metal Mania!!!
« Reply #16 on: Today at 05:30:27 PM »


I agree with with your thoughts and have been thinking the same. Some rambling thoughts and actions I have taken recently.

I am watching for silver to close over $21.50 as a sign metals are going to continue to go up. Next week should tell.

The market is floating on air and fumes. Interest rates cannot go appreciably lower, thus the stock indexes cannot go higher. The future earnings for the stock indexes are going down based on the predicted second coming of the recession. The stock indexes are going down and I feel that they will go lower than two years ago. I believe the only reason the indexes are higher is the banks are investing the TARP funds and quantative easing funds in the market, they are not making loans, they are trading with each other and pumping the stock prices. In addition the Fed and the administration is keeping the market up to minimize damages in the coming election (I predict the democraps will lose the house but keep the senate with nothing happening the following two years).

Two weeks ago, I sold 30% of my non-precious metals holdings. I put the funds from the sale 50-50 into more PM holdings and cash. Currently I am 46% PMs (mining mutual funds and stocks; CEF: and physical) and 12% cash. If the market is up more the week before the election (~12,000 DJIA, 1,250 S&P 500) I am thinking I will sell another 20-30% of the non-PM holdings. I expect the market to crash after the election.

The problem is if the other countries of the world lose confidence in the dollar with a flash crash the dollar (and my cash holdings) becomes worthless and I might not be able to redeploy the cash balance fast enough to avoid losing the value.

[1970 silver art]

Yep silver is backing off and going back down. The question is how far will it go down today? Gold is backing down too. That is not surprising to me since both metals had a nice run most recently. A healthy pullback from these current levels is a good thing in my opinion. I think that $19.50 silver and $1200 gold are the new support levels but I think that it is possible that those support levels could be tested. I put $19.50 as the new support level for silver because, in the past, silver had a very hard time closing above $19.50 from what I have seen during this year.

[osoab]

1311+ & 21.76 Wow

http://www.kitconet.com/images/sp_en_6.gif

[1970 silver art]

And just when I thought that gold and silver would back off today. HOLY COW!!!!!! The gold and silver runs continues. Maybe silver will close above $22 before Friday.

[mike88]

usdx chart looks sick. i am a buyer of gold and silver at this price. last run up in the 80s had a lot fewer aware investors. this bull is of worldwide awareness. when the news of qe2 hits mainstream and the realization sinks in , the demand for asset protection will become even stronger. my friends stuck in the dollar view are saying"gold is so expensive". a few are realizing the gold is not expensive, their currency is evaporating. as this awareness spreads the precious metals as money idea will replace the current idea of wealth.

[osoab]

usdx chart looks sick. i am a buyer of gold and silver at this price. last run up in the 80s had a lot fewer aware investors. this bull is of worldwide awareness. when the news of qe2 hits mainstream and the realization sinks in , the demand for asset protection will become even stronger. my friends stuck in the dollar view are saying"gold is so expensive". a few are realizing the gold is not expensive, their currency is evaporating. as this awareness spreads the precious metals as money idea will replace the current idea of wealth.


If people can't afford now, they never will be able too. The increased prices of what is now considered necessities will eat the remaining capital of the sheep.

Those that are stuck in the fiat/dollar reserve currency view, will not come around until their hamburger is $10/lb
and a case of pepsi $20. By then, it will be way too late.

[mamboni]

usdx chart looks sick. i am a buyer of gold and silver at this price. last run up in the 80s had a lot fewer aware investors. this bull is of worldwide awareness. when the news of qe2 hits mainstream and the realization sinks in , the demand for asset protection will become even stronger. my friends stuck in the dollar view are saying"gold is so expensive". a few are realizing the gold is not expensive, their currency is evaporating. as this awareness spreads the precious metals as money idea will replace the current idea of wealth.


If people can't afford now, they never will be able too. The increased prices of what is now considered necessities will eat the remaining capital of the sheep.

Those that are stuck in the fiat/dollar reserve currency view, will not come around until their hamburger is $10/lb
and a case of pepsi $20. By then, it will be way too late.


This inability to get onto the gold wagon once it leaves the station was warned about by people like Jim Sinclair and Richard Russell. As the gold price climbs away from those who would wait and wait for a pullback, gold suddenly becomes unaffordable. That's where silver comes to the rescue. Even at $22 per ounce, working people can accumulate silver ounces, albeit not as many as when silver was $7; but a lot more than when silver is $50!

[JohnQPublic]

If people can't afford now, they never will be able too. The increased prices of what is now considered necessities will eat the remaining capital of the sheep.



Silver- the New Gold
Gold- the New Platinum
Palladium- The Other New Gold
Tanatalum the New Silver (?)
Copper the New Silver
Nickel the New Silver
Platinum- the New Unobtanium
Rhodium- Who the Hell wants a plastic bottle full of powder (of course I have a 1g Cohen mint coin)
Rare Earth Metals- Worth Fighting For

Gold will soon be (an is already actually) for the rich. Silver is the poor man's gold. We need to bring back a bimetallic (or mutli-metallic) system. We do not have to have fixed ratios. We could base it all on gold (or silver) and let the other metals float relative to erference metal.

[JohnQPublic]

usdx chart looks sick. i am a buyer of gold and silver at this price. last run up in the 80s had a lot fewer aware investors. this bull is of worldwide awareness. when the news of qe2 hits mainstream and the realization sinks in , the demand for asset protection will become even stronger. my friends stuck in the dollar view are saying"gold is so expensive". a few are realizing the gold is not expensive, their currency is evaporating. as this awareness spreads the precious metals as money idea will replace the current idea of wealth.


If people can't afford now, they never will be able too. The increased prices of what is now considered necessities will eat the remaining capital of the sheep.

Those that are stuck in the fiat/dollar reserve currency view, will not come around until their hamburger is $10/lb
and a case of pepsi $20. By then, it will be way too late.


This inability to get onto the gold wagon once it leaves the station was warned about by people like Jim Sinclair and Richard Russell. As the gold price climbs away from those who would wait and wait for a pullback, gold suddenly becomes unaffordable. That's where silver comes to the rescue. Even at $22 per ounce, working people can accumulate silver ounces, albeit not as many as when silver was $7; but a lot more than when silver is $50!


The problem with silver is the premiums, but as the price rises, these will come down. I remember when I bought some Silver Eagles from a local dealer in Sept. 2008, I paid $16 each for them. He was buying them at $4 over and selling for $7 over. They paid off in terms of that fictional spot price.

[JohnQPublic]

The lack of discussion has been disheartening to say the least. That which brought us together either here or at GIM has been lacking of late. Our direction has been altered. We need to correct our course with due haste. The greatest Gold Bull in history is running and we are picking our collective nostrils and flinging dried mucous at one another.



I recall that even on GIM for most of 2009 and the all of 2010 (up to the ultimate demise), there was a lack of discussion of the barbarous relic. I spent a lot of time on Kitco, but even there the discussion was more muted. I think all the broken records in POG and POS (and other metals) have re-ignited some interest. I was part of the 2008 wave of gold-bug forum inductees. I suspect a new wave is soon to hit the shores of GSUS and other such destinations.

[osoab]

If people can't afford now, they never will be able too. The increased prices of what is now considered necessities will eat the remaining capital of the sheep.



Silver- the New Gold
Gold- the New Platinum
Palladium- The Other New Gold
Tanatalum the New Silver (?)
Copper the New Silver
Nickel the New Silver
Platinum- the New Unobtanium
Rhodium- Who the Hell wants a plastic bottle full of powder (of course I have a 1g Cohen mint coin)
Rare Earth Metals- Worth Fighting For

Gold will soon be (an is already actually) for the rich. Silver is the poor man's gold. We need to bring back a bimetallic (or mutli-metallic) system. We do not have to have fixed ratios. We could base it all on gold (or silver) and let the other metals float relative to erference metal.



JQP, if the general public can't spell it or pronounce it why would they buy in to it?
I like they way you think, but you have to factor in the sheeple.
They need Sprite and McCafe's, not some lump of metal in safe they need to go out and buy too.

Speaking of out of reach. A roll of eagles sets you back about $500 now. I decided not to pick some up today. The prices was the setback for me, and I have some clue of the value of the metal.

[osoab]

The lack of discussion has been disheartening to say the least. That which brought us together either here or at GIM has been lacking of late. Our direction has been altered. We need to correct our course with due haste. The greatest Gold Bull in history is running and we are picking our collective nostrils and flinging dried mucous at one another.



I recall that even on GIM for most of 2009 and the all of 2010 (up to the ultimate demise), there was a lack of discussion of the barbarous relic. I spent a lot of time on Kitco, but even there the discussion was more muted. I think all the broken records in POG and POS (and other metals) have re-ignited some interest. I was part of the 2008 wave of gold-bug forum inductees. I suspect a new wave is soon to hit the shores of GSUS and other such destinations.


I was a late 2008 inductee. I am glad I pulled my head out of my ass at that time and started to think.

I think the conversation level was fairly consistent across both sites. A lot of talk was occuring late last year before the Dec smackdown and after. Even if the metal discussion was diminished, the amount of significant issues occuring at the global, national, state, and local levels has sometimes taken precedence in conversations.

This place, though, started with drama and has continued with drama. The site has settled down much as of late (thank you), but it has in general been nauseating (drama that is). The level of metal disscussion is a small percentage of what it should be. I just feel it's time to end the b.s. ad get down to business.

So, I have come to realize that I have to stop bitching and increase my post count. Ponce here I come. ;D

[mamboni]

The lack of discussion has been disheartening to say the least. That which brought us together either here or at GIM has been lacking of late. Our direction has been altered. We need to correct our course with due haste. The greatest Gold Bull in history is running and we are picking our collective nostrils and flinging dried mucous at one another.



I recall that even on GIM for most of 2009 and the all of 2010 (up to the ultimate demise), there was a lack of discussion of the barbarous relic. I spent a lot of time on Kitco, but even there the discussion was more muted. I think all the broken records in POG and POS (and other metals) have re-ignited some interest. I was part of the 2008 wave of gold-bug forum inductees. I suspect a new wave is soon to hit the shores of GSUS and other such destinations.


I was a late 2008 inductee. I am glad I pulled my head out of my ass at that time and started to think.

I think the conversation level was fairly consistent across both sites. A lot of talk was occuring late last year before the Dec smackdown and after. Even if the metal discussion was diminished, the amount of significant issues occuring at the global, national, state, and local levels has sometimes taken precedence in conversations.

This place, though, started with drama and has continued with drama. The site has settled down much as of late (thank you), but it has in general been nauseating (drama that is). The level of metal disscussion is a small percentage of what it should be. I just feel it's time to end the b.s. ad get down to business.

So, I have come to realize that I have to stop bitching and increase my post count. Ponce here I come. ;D


I'm with you bro! Let the PM debates begin!

[mike88]

1 10 gram 999 gold bar, 20 franklin halves, 2 10 oz. 999 silver bars on their way as of 3 pm. out of stock market entirely. will "dollar cost average" at approx these levels monthly. recent bank offer in the mail " 150.00 to open direct deposit checking account" us bank. paid as interest, reported on 1099.

[osoab]

1 10 gram 999 gold bar, 20 franklin halves, 2 10 oz. 999 silver bars on their way as of 3 pm. out of stock market entirely. will "dollar cost average" at approx these levels monthly. recent bank offer in the mail " 150.00 to open direct deposit checking account" us bank. paid as interest, reported on 1099.


About a year ago, I got an offer for a 4% savings account with one of my insurance companies.
I didn't give them anything.

I did wonder though, how was it an insurance company was paying 375 basis points above banks for in an interest bearing account.

[Dogman]

The lack of discussion has been disheartening to say the least. That which brought us together either here or at GIM has been lacking of late. Our direction has been altered. We need to correct our course with due haste. The greatest Gold Bull in history is running and we are picking our collective nostrils and flinging dried mucous at one another.



I recall that even on GIM for most of 2009 and the all of 2010 (up to the ultimate demise), there was a lack of discussion of the barbarous relic. I spent a lot of time on Kitco, but even there the discussion was more muted. I think all the broken records in POG and POS (and other metals) have re-ignited some interest. I was part of the 2008 wave of gold-bug forum inductees. I suspect a new wave is soon to hit the shores of GSUS and other such destinations.


If you remember early in that time frame and before , every time the metals price start to go up, Major hype and rockets flying. Then the price would drop again, I feel that most posters just got so used to the yo-yo action and hype that when Gold mainly started climbing and started to make real ground most could or would not get very excited + All of the chatter during all of the rocket highs and crashes. Left people needing to let off steam and not talk about metals much. Gim had such knowledge in all the current posts and the archives. That all that was being done,was hashing over old ground.

That is my dos centavos view point.

[mamboni]

1 10 gram 999 gold bar, 20 franklin halves, 2 10 oz. 999 silver bars on their way as of 3 pm. out of stock market entirely. will "dollar cost average" at approx these levels monthly. recent bank offer in the mail " 150.00 to open direct deposit checking account" us bank. paid as interest, reported on 1099.


Good show!!! Good show!!! You will do very well lad!

[osoab]

I lost a post during our database move about EGI, Entree Gold (http://www.entreegold.com/).

I got this "tip" from a gas station owner, I talk the markets/economy with in the mornings. He had one of my coworkers give me a piece of paper with the stock symbol. I hadn't been in for a few days.

I think this was on Thursday last week. It was up about 4% at about 10:30 am. It finished the day at +10% or so.

Friday, the stock was up about another 10% early. A little lower yesterday. Today up around 3%

On September 23 low price was 2.33, today's close was 2.76.

So it's up about 20% in this time frame. These are rough numbers folks, if you have a great site for me to get past daily numbers and overall charts, post it and I will use it.

I would guess this press release on September 23 was the reason.

Entrée Gold Discovers New Mineralized Porphyry Copper System At Yerington, Nevada (http://www.entreegold.com/news/index.php?&content_id=275)

I have not had time to look over this company. There is definitely some wind behind these sails, though.

[1970 silver art]

As far as I am concerned, as long as the metals keep going up like they are, then there will always be talk about it with people giving their gut feeling predictions on how high gold and silver will go.

If metals take a dive, then there will be talk about it such as premiums and availability at APMEX.

I just like the silver price action that is going on currently. Maybe silver will close above $22 before options expiration on Friday. There might be a smack down in the metals on Friday but that is just a guess on my part.

A healthy pullback is also be a nice thing if it set us up for the next leg up. I am not a TA chart analyst but a healthy pullback does make sense in order for gold and silver to continue to go up.

[mamboni]

The lack of discussion has been disheartening to say the least. That which brought us together either here or at GIM has been lacking of late. Our direction has been altered. We need to correct our course with due haste. The greatest Gold Bull in history is running and we are picking our collective nostrils and flinging dried mucous at one another.



I recall that even on GIM for most of 2009 and the all of 2010 (up to the ultimate demise), there was a lack of discussion of the barbarous relic. I spent a lot of time on Kitco, but even there the discussion was more muted. I think all the broken records in POG and POS (and other metals) have re-ignited some interest. I was part of the 2008 wave of gold-bug forum inductees. I suspect a new wave is soon to hit the shores of GSUS and other such destinations.


If you remember early in that time frame and before , every time the metals price start to go up, Major hype and rockets flying. Then the price would drop again, I feel that most posters just got so used to the yo-yo action and hype that when Gold mainly started climbing and started to make real ground most could or would not get very excited + All of the chatter during all of the rocket highs and crashes. Left people needing to let off steam and not talk about metals much. Gim had such knowledge in all the current posts and the archives. That all that was being done,was hashing over old ground.

That is my dos centavos view point.




I remember that period in GIM well. There were scattered excellent PM posts and I tried to catch them all. I was a relative novice but by 2008 was heavily invested in physical. I was always struck by the seeming contradiction at GIM. On the one hand the GIM body of knowledge made a convincing case for buy and hold investment in the PMs and guaranteed price appreciation. Yet on the other side, posters would continually obsess about whether to buy silver or gold on the most recent price dip when the conventional wisdom was that in the long run it did not matter. My last large recordable gold purchase (I’ve done several cash transactions since then) was at $879 when gold had just recently almost touched $1000 (early 2008), a major milestone. Folk were obsessing about whether to buy or wait for $850 or lower. I said to myself, dammit self, I’m buying more now and I don’t care if it drops further: I’ll just buy more! And here we are 2 and a half short years later and gold is blasting through $1300. Imagine a passbook savings account was paying 1-2% and gold is up 20% per annum!! In the words of the Mogambo, this investing stuff is easy!

[Dogman]

Doc those were good days, And it was confusing about half would say buy/ and the other half would wait for the dips and or sell. And the knowledge base was amazing! I still think it was the best anywhere.

I am locked in so far as buying and have to sit tight and just whoop with joy at every increase. ;D
If this trend is the one everyone has been waiting for for all of these years those that can buy , I would
say do it now and not wait. If you wait and buy later if the price does slide back I think it will only go back
near these levels. My crystal ball is sort of fuzzy on this.

[osoab]

And here we are 2 and a half short years later and gold is blasting through $1300. Imagine a passbook savings account was paying 1-2% and gold is up 20% per annum!! In the words of the Mogambo, this investing stuff is easy!


My new spiel is to let people know that I earned a whole whopping 60 cents on 3,000 for one month @ .20% APR in one of my accounts.

Let's see what did gold do in August?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//auaug10.gif

And what of that little brother Ag?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agaug10.gif


Both were better than 60 cents. That's all I know.

[osoab]

I was noticed this gold junior was up a nice percentage today. Capital Gold Corporation (http://www.capitalgoldcorp.com/) This guy bucked the trend from the opening.

Maybe some of the reason?

Timmins Gold Corp. makes proposal to merge with Capital Gold Corporation (http://www.timminsgold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=420764&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Timmins-Gold-Corp.-makes-proposal-to-merge-with-Capital-Gold-Corporation)


Vancouver, British Columbia - Timmins Gold Corp. ("Timmins Gold") (TSX-V:TMM) made, on August 31, 2010, a non-binding proposal (the "Proposal") to the directors of Capital Gold Corporation ("Capital Gold") (TSX:CGC; NYSE AMEX:CGC) to merge on a negotiated basis with Capital Gold based on a value of CDN$4.50 per common share of Capital Gold ("a CGC Share") which, at the time of the Proposal and based on closing prices as of that date, equated to a share exchange ratio of 2.27 Timmins Gold shares issued for every 1 CGC Share. The Proposal represented a premium of 26% to the 20-day volume-weighted average price of CGC Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the period ended August 31, 2010. Timmins Gold believes that the transaction, if completed, would result in a merger of two equal-sized companies with regional and operational synergies that would benefit both companies' shareholders by creating a mid-tier, low cost, Mexico-focused gold producer. These benefits include:
-complementary operating teams and exploration assets
-management team with proven ability to access capital markets and create shareholder value
stronger market presence
-creation of a company with a larger market capitalization that would be attractive to certain institutional investors.


Despite repeated requests, Capital Gold's board of directors has not been receptive to Timmins Gold's Proposal.

Capital Gold shareholders representing approximately 17% of the outstanding CGC Shares have confirmed to Timmins Gold that they would support the Proposal (subject to customary conditions).

Bruce Bragagnolo, CEO and Director of Timmins Gold, comments: "Our proposed merger with Capital Gold presents a great opportunity for the shareholders of both companies. In putting it forward, we are responding to the expressed wishes of Capital Gold shareholders, including the 17% who have signed support agreements, that this merger take place. The absence of meaningful dialogue with the directors of Capital Gold has driven us to bring this process into the public arena.

"We are prepared to move quickly to arrive at a mutually agreeable transaction. Given our familiarity with Capital Gold's operations and management team, we believe that due diligence will move very quickly."

Timmins Gold has retained M Partners Inc. as an advisor in connection with the Proposal.




more at link

After reading Capital Gold's press release. They do not seem real happy about a merger/takeover.

Now I bring this up for a different reason. What we are looking at is companies taking over junior/explorer miners with reserves.

Many of the gold guru's have talked about this. These juniors could be our lotto tickets, if we can find that winner.
This isn't the first nor last of the takeovers. Why not buy proven reserves instead of risking exploration?

Is anyone else looking at potential takeover targets?

Edited link.

[mike88]

i believe certain executive orders are in place to nationalize mines under the pretext of "national security". so yes all juniors are takeover possibilities. 35% short term cap gains tax may not be enough vig for the federal mafia. i have profited on these stocks and don't wish to piss on anyones parade, stay nimble, dyood, and good trading. i always keep this picture in mind when at the casino.

[osoab]

http://www.kitconet.com/images/sp_en_6.gif

Damn Chinese must be running up the gold price on us. >:(

We broke 22 Art.

[1970 silver art]

Amazing......simply amazing. I am happy with it. Looks like JPMorgan let silver loose out of its Comex cage. :)

[osoab]

You might want to stay out MFN (http://www.minefinders.com/) for a while.

MINEFINDERS PROVIDES UPDATE ON STATUS OF REMEDIATION WORK ON THE PHASE 1 LEACH PAD AT THE DOLORES MINE (http://www.minefinders.com/news/index.php?&content_id=148)

MFN finished at its low of the day down 8.5%. Reading that press release, I don't think 4Q will be much to talk about either.

EGI (http://www.entreegold.com/) had a nice day. Up about 8%
I have been waiting a pull back to jump into this one. >:(

Here is the press release from day. Entrée Gold Provides Mongolia Exploration Update
(http://www.entreegold.com/news/index.php?&content_id=276)

REE (Rare Element Resources) finally took a breather, but finish well off its lows. Down about 6.5% to 8.04. Low was 7.36. Yesterday was about 4% down I think. Possibly some profit taking for the end of Q3?

MCP (Moly Corp) finished up 2.8% off of its high for the day.

Silver broke 22.00 overnight and hit 22.01 during the New York session. Ag did have a pull back this afternoon only to recover. Anyone have any ideas for the drop off?

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif

Gold didn't into the 1314 area as it did overnight. Closed @ 1309 on Comex.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif

I am still kicking myself that I sold SLW @ around 16 while expecting a drop off. I had bought around 12. It's sitting @ 27 now. This thing just keeps chugging along.

[osoab]

Trading Time? (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye092910.html)

The All-One-Market is about to correct
It could be a tradable move

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Sep 29, 2010

Gold and Silver Sector

Recently, we have thought that one of the keys to change would be silver, and the outstanding action registered a daily Upside Exhaustion on September 20. A top was expected within the next six trading days and today is Number Five.

The "exit" from silver would be prompted by a downtick on price or momentum.

The Silver/Gold ratio also set some RSI readings from which a high would follow by a week or so. That counts out to this week.

Gold, itself, has become a "Goldilocks" item whereby--as the Financial Post reported today--it is being recommended for "Inflation", Deflation" and "Hyperinflation".

Over the past few days, gold and silver stocks have been underperforming the action in bullion prices and that often anticipates a slump in the sector. The HUI has yet to make a return to its record high with the rise in bullion.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye092910/1_sm.gif

Currencies

The Dollar Index RSI reached 27.5 on Friday which is almost to the level that ended the decline in early August. A price reversal up through 80.50 would be considered confirmation of a turn.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye092910/2_sm.gif

Stock Markets

Our Gold/Commodities Index (GCI) set its recent low at 354 on September 13 and, typically, the turn up has led the high on the NYSE senior indexes by 5 to 10 trading days.

This is Day Ten and Friday's close on the S&P was a new high for the move at 1148.

The key in April was 1217 and occurred on Day Six of the GCI count.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye092910/3_sm.gif

Wrap

The "sunshine" expected in September has been very good and the action is now facing a weather change. The money market has appeared to be "easy" with low rates for treasury bills and narrowing of spreads as represented by the Ted-Spread.

"Unusually" low rates for short-dated instruments in the senior currency have been one of the features of a post-bubble contraction. However, reliable signals have been provided by a change to steepening in the curve, which seems to have started and by a turn to spread widening.

In the past couple of days the Ted-Spread has widened a little.

###

Sep 27, 2010
-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com

[mamboni]

I was hoping for a nice correction in the HUI to buy back in to GDX. Gold's resiliency of late is just amazing. It's like Rocky Balboa: it will not go down. Added 2000 PHYS to my paper gold holdings - a tiny increment. If GDX dips below 50 I will buy it all!

[mike88]

hoping you do well on your trade doc. in for 220 share exk silver this am.

[mike88]

exk executed @ 4.0064/share. price in sept 09 2.08. producing mines located in mexico also following axu, a canadian miner with operating property at the belle keno district in the yukon.

[Gknowmx]

I was hoping for a nice correction in the HUI to buy back in to GDX. Gold's resiliency of late is just amazing. It's like Rocky Balboa: it will not go down. Added 2000 PHYS to my paper gold holdings - a tiny increment. If GDX dips below 50 I will buy it all!


Isn't three something about seeing a doctor if Gold doesn't go down within 4 hours? Oh, wait, with so many erectile dysfunction and Gold commercials on TV maybe I have that confused... ;D

[mike88]

i don't think i am visiting a doctor for that particular swelling to be reduced. prefer treatment administered by my squeeze "the loveflower"

[mamboni]

I was hoping for a nice correction in the HUI to buy back in to GDX. Gold's resiliency of late is just amazing. It's like Rocky Balboa: it will not go down. Added 2000 PHYS to my paper gold holdings - a tiny increment. If GDX dips below 50 I will buy it all!


Isn't three something about seeing a doctor if Gold doesn't go down within 4 hours? Oh, wait, with so many erectile dysfunction and Gold commercials on TV maybe I have that confused... ;D


Yeah, if Goldfinger was alive today watching gold's bull he wouldn't need viagra! ;D

[osoab]

exk executed @ 4.0064/share. price in sept 09 2.08. producing mines located in mexico also following axu, a canadian miner with operating property at the belle keno district in the yukon.


I picked up some shares of this one on Tuesday I think @ 4.07 or 4.09.
I was looking for a better pop off of expiration.

I have been wondering if I jumped way to early on this stock. Looking back @ its chart. It's high was back in 2007 around the 5.40 range. I am too lazy to look for exact prices. EXK is off about 10% of it's 52 week high.

I am wondering now if this stock will fly much without a large push from the metal price or a takeover.

Looking at this site Short Squeeze (http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=exk&submit=Short+Quote%99) the shares short is in the 600,000 range with total outstanding at 61 million. Look @ HL on this site. They show 40 mil short on 245 mil outstanding.

The overall short postition is something I have been looking at as far as the miners go.

[osoab]

EGI finished down 3%.

CGC was up 1.5%

REE was up 7.5%

MCP was up 5.8%

MFN was up .04%. I wonder if the damage has been done with that press release.

I was suprised by the yellow metals resilience today.
I am completely dissapointed that silver didn't take the lead.

[mike88]

going to hold exk until at least the spring. not trading in and out right now. i believe the higher metal price will spark more interest in these small/mid size mining companies as the current run continues. may take some time for this small of a market to catch on. i like the way the management operates, they are producing metal, the equipment looks fairly new, and the area of their claims is a proven silver producing part of the world.

[osoab]

Looks like EXK Endeavour Silver Company was one of the better miners for the day up 4%.
This was from the 27th of Sep. Endeavour Silver To Make All Cash Offer to Acquire Cream Minerals
(http://www.edrsilver.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=420738)

PLG finished off its lows of the day down 6%. I know it was down 12% early in the day.
Platinum Group To Sell 49 Mln Shares At C$2.05/Shr - Quick Facts (http://www.rttnews.com/content/QuickFacts.aspx?Id=1434339&SimRec=1&Node=B1)


Does anyone know why on the overall the miners did not keep up witht the gain in spot price in all metals.?

[osoab]

AUMN (http://www.goldenminerals.com/stockcharts.php) or Golden Minerals was up 28.8% today. From 17.61 to 20.00.

They had a big buy rating to 104

Golden Minerals initiated with a Buy at Dahlman Rose (http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/AUMNid1305966/AUMN-Golden-Minerals-initiated-with-a-Buy-at-Dahlman-Rose)


Dahlman Rose believes that Golden Minerals has an attractive and deep portfolio of high-grade assets. The firm views the stock as "deeply undervalued," and set a $104 target on the shares. :theflyonthewall

[mike88]

mine shares seem to me to lag behind the price of metal, then momentum shoots the price/share upwards. this is a tiny market compared to the stocks available for investors. show most folks on the street a 1 0z. silver bar and you will be met with a blank stare. let them know it is worth 7 big macs and the light will start to turn on. 7 gallons of gasoline. 4 package cigarettes.

[osoab]

Crazy day today. Everything was on fire for the most part.

http://www.kitconet.com/images/sp_en_6.gif

Gold, new all time daily close. Silver up a nice 4.8% at the end of all NY trading.

Silver on Comex looks interesting. Backwardation?

Most Recent COMEX $/OZ

Dec 22.86 05 Oct 17:14 NY
Mar 22.79 05 Oct 16:51 NY
May 22.82 05 Oct 16:51 NY
Most Recent COMEX $/OZ

Gold on Comex.

Most Recent COMEX $/OZ

Oct 1338.90 05 Oct 16:46 NY
Dec 1341.80 05 Oct 17:14 NY
Feb 1343.30 05 Oct 16:58 NY


AUMN had a weird day. Up 12% early went negative for awhile then finished in the green.

http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/getChart?chscale=1d&webmasterId=91022&snap=true&symbol=AUMN&chtype=AreaChart&chwid=284&chhig=150&chfill=ee0066CC&chfill2=110066CC&chln=0066CC&chmrg=0&chfrmon=false&chton=some

HL had a nice day. Up 5.76%

http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/getChart?chscale=1d&webmasterId=91022&snap=true&symbol=HL&chtype=AreaChart&chwid=284&chhig=150&chfill=ee0066CC&chfill2=110066CC&chln=0066CC&chmrg=0&chfrmon=false&chton=some

The bucky didn't have the best of days.

US Dollar Index Futures Cash,Co
(NYBOT: DX-Y.NYB)
Index Value: 77.80
Trade Time: 5:12PM EDT
Change: Down 0.65 (0.82%)
Prev Close: 78.45
Open: 78.50
Day's Range: 77.70 - 78.69
52wk Range: N/A

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=DX-Y.NYB&lang=en-US&region=US&width=300&height=180


So how long before we crash?

[mamboni]

I think we are watching the crash of the dollar....in slow motion. Willie says the the LMBA is getting raided regularly now by well-healed foreigners who want their physical gold delivered. The thing about gold that makes it unique amongst commodities and currencies, is that the higher its price goes, the more scarce it becomes as more people want to own it and the tighter it is held by present owners.

Bernanke looks at gold and he sh!ts his pants, like Dorian Grey staring at his hidden aged decrepid portrait of his true hideous self.

[osoab]

I think we are watching the crash of the dollar....in slow motion. Willie says the the LMBA is getting raided regularly now by well-healed foreigners who want their physical gold delivered. The thing about gold that makes it unique amongst commodities and currencies, is that the higher its price goes, the more scarce it becomes as more people want to own it and the tighter it is held by present owners.

Bernanke looks at gold and he sh!ts his pants, like Dorian Grey staring at his hidden aged decrepid portrait of his true hideous self.


I should have clarified my crash. I keep feeling that it is nearing the time to knock the metals back some. Get the bucky soaring again. This just seems like late 2009.

This is the best us dollar chart I can find to illustrate my opinion.

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/charts/USM.GIF

The big difference is this pesky election in Nov. I don't see a rescue of the dollar until after the election, though. The stock market would still be flying if the dollar is falling. This would make some of "on the fence sheep" a nudge for votes.

Unless, they have finally thrown in the towel. The rhetoric towards China to revalue the yuan, the Fed members claiming the need for more inflation, the talk of QE2, and another TARP package seem to give the impression that the dollar is damned by Ben's presses.

Edit. Trying to find the chart. Here is the link (http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/US/M) .

[mike88]

long exk , good move in price. dow way up today, guess the market can be goosed if a buyer can pull money out of their ass at will. went to my small coin and metal dealer at 82nd and powell, silver halves 8.00 each. had six left. he had bowls of 90% junk in various denom 3 months ago, also gold krugs,eagles. none were in the counter today in bowl size quantity. either a crappy neighborhood and they were in the safe in back, or he was low on supply. SE portland area there is known as "felony flats". may check out the vancouver coin store tomorrow and see what he has out. as far as the nitwits at the dc area, i really believe the plan is to get elected no matter how much FAKE MONEY THEY HAVE TO CONJURE UP. "good times" up until the nov. elections, then it will be" bend over time" Rome, England all had their empires until the money got debased trying to expand further. I will continue moving paper into hard assets until this changes. the picture of Dorian Grey , yeah definetly the career bueracrat. good one doctor.

[mike88]

holding long position exk silver. .25/share gain today. larger than average volume. canadian junior axu has hit a good vein, the share price is up 90 or so cents/share today. no position in that one.

[mamboni]

long exk , good move in price. dow way up today, guess the market can be goosed if a buyer can pull money out of their ass at will. went to my small coin and metal dealer at 82nd and powell, silver halves 8.00 each. had six left. he had bowls of 90% junk in various denom 3 months ago, also gold krugs,eagles. none were in the counter today in bowl size quantity. either a crappy neighborhood and they were in the safe in back, or he was low on supply. SE portland area there is known as "felony flats". may check out the vancouver coin store tomorrow and see what he has out. as far as the nitwits at the dc area, i really believe the plan is to get elected no matter how much FAKE MONEY THEY HAVE TO CONJURE UP. "good times" up until the nov. elections, then it will be" bend over time" Rome, England all had their empires until the money got debased trying to expand further. I will continue moving paper into hard assets until this changes. the picture of Dorian Grey , yeah definetly the career bueracrat. good one doctor.


Please report back to us - many hear would like to know what kind of physical PM supply is on the streets.

[mike88]

thanx for the reminder doc. nice sunny day here in vantucky wa. , time to get out a little.

[osoab]

holding long position exk silver. .25/share gain today. larger than average volume. canadian junior axu has hit a good vein, the share price is up 90 or so cents/share today. no position in that one.


I'm in for about a 11% gain in a week on Endeavor. I won't complain.

I was watching axu. I hadn't had a chance to see what the big news was. Up 27% for the day.

A couple of rare earth miners got pummeled today.

REE was down almost 9% to $7.63. If it gets under 7 I may take a look.

MCP was down 3.9% to $27.87.

A commentary about MCP from Top 9 IPOs of 2010 (http://247wallst.com/2010/10/05/top-9-ipos-of-2010-mmyt-hsft-ccih-qlik-mcp-fn-amap-il-gdot/)


Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP) is a total anomaly in its model with rare earth oxides (REOs) and the fears that China and other markets will limit shipments of REOs is driving this one. The problem is that its mines won’t be fully operation until the end of 2011, so investors paying up more than double from the IPO now are making a real commitment. Shares have been flirting with $30 after a $14.00 pricing at the end of July. It traded as a busted deal and has a post IPO range of $12.10 to $30.50. 100%+ isn’t too bad for a company where there seemed to be no hurry at all until recently. The recent news and hype around REOs has shares trading above initial analyst targets as the production won’t be in the earnings until 2012 as this point.

[mike88]

back from coin store. Liberty Coin 114 and 4th plain blvd, vancouver. was there about a year ago, purchased 2 2.50 indian gold pieces. today he had in the display case a box of 40% halves, maybe 150 or so. 10 1/10 eagles @ 175 per coin. 90% us silver about 10$ face various denom. picked up a barber half and a mercury dime 9.60 frn out the door. 16X face. asked about any more 90%, said he had a buyer for 750.00 face coming in friday. this stock was in back. this store is in a mini mall, empty storefronts either side of him. good stock of graded morgans. axu mines...believe the news was a drill of a very rich oz./ton vein, good paydirt. belle keno district in canada yukon territory. holding exk position. may pop down to ajpm in portland[sw3rd and washington street] on day off monday. was there 3 weeks ago. store has website to check prices, good professional outfit.

[osoab]

So, we finally had a pull back. Stocks were hit worse percentage wise.

http://www.kitco.com/hist_charts/gold/new_york/2010/Nu10072010.gif

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/1a-cad-usd-jpy-euro-gbp-chf-d-Large.gif

This last chart I just found looking around kitco. I normally just look at prices and read the forum. I need to scroll down some more.

[osoab]

Commentary on the above fwiw.

Gold fell against all currencies at the same time. Hmmmm. Anything natural about that?

We can't use the USD rising as an excuse either.

So was it a concerted effort or a an en masse profit taking?

[mamboni]

STRAP YOURSELVES IN - this is going to be HUGE...

originally published October 6th, 2010
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=2357

We are on the point of a major breakout by Precious Metals stocks that is expected to lead to a powerful rally. The reason that the rally will be powerful is that stocks have been held in restraint since late last year by a zone of very strong resistance in the vicinity of the 2008 highs. This resistance is on the point of being overcome and when it is the last argument that bears are using to justify their position will crumble - namely that of the non-confirmation of gold's continuing new highs by stocks - and they will be forced to cover or face annihilation. This covering should give added fuel to the accelerating rally.
The concern that gold and silver are heavily overbought is of course understandable. However, some of the biggest rallies in markets have commenced with the market breaking out in an overbought state and then running an overbought condition for a long time as it continued higher, with all those who missed the boat waiting for a sizeable reaction that never happens. We are well aware that gold and silver are now extremely overbought on a short-term basis and thus prone to a sharp but relatively shallow “air pocket” reaction which should be bought aggressively, as any such reaction, although unnerving, is likely to be short-lived.

http://www.clivemaund.com/charts/hui4year061010.gif

As we look at this 4-year chart for the HUI index, we can appreciate that the big gains lie right ahead of us for the market has barely broken out yet, and the blue arrow shows the kind of advance we can look forward to if it, and the XAU index, break out to clear new highs shortly. So despite the gains of recent weeks, the lion's share of the expected major advance lies immediately ahead of us.

Many investors have been vexed by the underperformance of PM stock relative to the metals. As we have seen on the HUI index chart, conditions are ripe for stocks to surge now. With regard to the possibility that stocks will soon outperform the metals, the chart for the HUI index over gold certainly makes for interesting viewing at this time. On a chart for this ratio going back 18 months we can see that it has been converging within a Symmetrical Triangle for over a year now and as it is approaching the apex of this Triangle it MUST break out soon. For various reasons it is expected to break out upside, not least of which is the fact that stocks have a marked tendency to follow gold. If it does and gold continues to ascend as expected, it is obvious that it is perfectly reasonable to expect a dynamic and substantial uptrend in PM stocks.



What about the possibility of the stockmarket crashing or going into severe decline and dragging the PM sector down with it? That used to be a concern of ours, but with the QE (Quantitative Easing) pumps running full blast, it doesn't look like we need to worry about that anymore. On the contrary the prospect of endless rounds of competitive devaluation and generous helpings of QE should keep things humming along nicely, with the bill being pushed onto the little guy later in the form of robust inflation.

We would like to end this article by giving thanks on behalf of the gold community to the gold-friendly geniuses at the US Federal Reserve, US Treasury and the government itself, whose imaginative and spirited bailouts, money creation and monetization have made possible an accelerating bullmarket in gold and silver and Precious Metals stocks. We salute you.

[mike88]

surprises will be to the upside in this next couple of years. holding stock position, plan to add physical this month. keeping it real simple, letting unfolding events work for established positions. no need to fret each burp and hiccup dayto day.

[undgrd]

Ratio just crossed into the 57:1 area.

57.9:1 to be exact

[mike88]

holding long EXK silver position. gain in share price today. 3rd quarter results good. 24.00 silver next target. usdx slight downtick. oil 82 ish, rising.

[osoab]

So this is our dip? What gives? I was hoping for more of dip into the weekend.
I should have hit the coin shop yesterday. http://yahoofreak.com/animated%20emoticons/Funny%20Animated%20Emoticons/head%20bash.gif

I was thinking of playing grains for today. I knew the DOA report was coming out this morning.
Lock limit up on corn, soy, and wheat. CORN was up 14.6% today. Crap!

[mike88]

What the exter's pyramid illustration at the start of the thread says to me. All assets above the lowest point will eventually settle in the currency of last resort, GOLD. Anyone on this board with a supply, however large or small, is positioned to weather the transition. Gold and silver are portable, private,universally accepted stores of wealth. I stored one oz. silver this week in the form of 90% silver coinage while visiting two coin stores. Not a huge amount by any means, however the silver will be available as the paper notes used in their purchase are debased into worthlessness. I believe time will be more important than price in this market. Dips are great, however i do not sweat 1 or 2 paper dollars/ oz. silver. As the desire for this asset increases, and the supply available for purchase becomes more scarce, the price increases at an increasingly steep curve. 1/23 oz. silver.............1/1340 oz. gold as of friday. All my associates outside this forum, save one, have not grasped this yet. they typically say, "it is so expensive!" We are a small group, us goldbugs. As posted above by the doc mamboni, i sense huge upside moves in precious metal valuations in the next two years.

[osoab]

Well, off day due to Columbus Day?

Gold up, silver rocked back and forth. Best daily Comex close for Au again. Yawn.

Platinum was down 19, but SWC was up 4.7%.

REE up almost 10%, AUMN up almost 27%, AXU up over 12%.

Corn started out at LLU again and finished off of its highs. CORN did not follow this move today down 4.1%.

[osoab]

Eric Sprott on Financial Sense.

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2010-1009-2.asx

[osoab]

The Long & Short of What's Happening With Silver These Days (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mack101110.html)


Chris Mack
www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com
Something has drastically changed in the silver market. The banks that once controlled the price of silver are now closing positions at a loss. The commercial shorts have begun to bleed money - and when blood spills sharks will circle. Hedge funds and traders that never even thought of silver before will begin to squeeze the shorts. If the big banks don't quickly regain control of the silver market they may lose it forever.

Anyone following the futures market for silver knows that the large commercial traders, banks such as JPM, always win. That is until now. Let's look at the history of short selling as it related to silver in the past, what has been occurring recently and what may unfold in the very near future, as follows.

Then

During the bull market in silver that began in 2001, a pattern of trading similar to the "Martingale Betting Strategy" emerged in which 8 trading institutions sold short increasingly larger amounts of contracts into rallies until their sales volumes overwhelmed the market into a freefall. After the freefall they then repurchased those short positions at a profit and the rally process began again. This process of taking money from precious metals investors has been well documented by analysts such as Ted Butler, David Morgan, and others. The strategy was so successful that some futures traders began to front run the banks on their own using tactics such as the COT report and other sentiment indicators. As a result of their actions it has been argued that these large short positions have suppressed the price of silver by a multiple of itself. This may be proven sooner than many expected.

Recently

Over the last 6 weeks all was going according to plan. Silver rallied and the commercial banks shorted an ever larger amount of contracts as the open interest swelled to the point at which most silver analysts were expecting a correction. In the last 2 weeks silver rose by nearly $2 dollars and most were expecting to see an even larger commercial short position reflected in the COT report. Instead, the commercials actually covered 2297 contracts, and bought an additional 989 long contracts during the week of September 28th to October 5th when the price of silver rose by $1. The covering was down at what appeared to be a short term top to many.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/images/mack101110a.gif

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/images/mack101110b.gif


The Near Future

While it can be speculated on how short covering could impact the market, a short squeeze could feed upon itself as it attracts capital. In five trading days of buying a net 3286 contracts the price of silver rose by $1. However the commercial banks are still a net 62,127 contracts short so at that linear rate it would take them 94 trading days to cover with a silver price of roughly $117. The resulting losses would be around $15 billion. Of course markets aren't linear and after the second or third week of covering traders would begin to purposefully front run and squeeze the commercial shorts so it is unlikely that the positions could be covered that low or if at all.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, those of you who were hoping for a correction to accumulate more silver may not get it here as a price reset may be on the horizon.

117 Dollar Silver that would be swapping time I think.

[osoab]

Seemed like an odd day.
The miners swung back and forth. The metals seemed subdued. I think I got too accustomed to the last 3-4 weeks of price rises.

I was figuring that the FOMC minutes release would give a good boost to the metal prices.
There was a nice spike, but it was not sustained.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYMEX_SI.Z10.E&t=f&w=5&a=2&v=s

[MNeagle]

Anyone watching the metals tonight?

[1970 silver art]

Anyone watching the metals tonight?


Yep I am. I have Kitco Kcast on my computer now but I do not have any charts up. Gold and Silver is up pretty good so far.

[StackerKen]

Anyone watching the metals tonight?


I am :)


Looks like 23 maybe the new bottom for silver?

[osoab]

Anyone watching the metals tonight?


I am :)


Looks like 23 maybe the new bottom for silver?


Don't say that Ken. We need cheaper Silver!

[1970 silver art]

Osoab,

Correct me if I am wrong but I see $19.50 as the major support level for silver. I was saying this because in the past, silver had a very hard time finishing above $19.50/oz. Based on what I saw in the past 3 occasions on silver, it would hit $19.50 during the intra day and stay above that level but it was never able to close above that level at the end of the day and the next day it would get smacked down and in the following days and weeks it would go back to $17-$18 before it worked its way back up. Eventually that $19.50 major support level will get tested and I hope that this major support level holds up.

[osoab]

Osoab,

Correct me if I am wrong but I see $19.50 as the major support level for silver. I was saying this because in the past, silver had a very hard time finishing above $19.50/oz. Based on what I saw in the past 3 occasions on silver, it would hit $19.50 during the intra day and stay above that level but it was never able to close above that level at the end of the day and the next day it would get smacked down and in the following days and weeks it would go back to $17-$18 before it worked its way back up. Eventually that $19.50 major support level will get tested and I hope that this major support level holds up.




Here is the 2010 chart Art.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif

I don't do any TA stuff. I am sure you could find reasons/analysis for support at any level 19.50, 20, 20.50, 21, etc.

Looks to me that 18 would be a firm floor using the above chart.

I would say 21-23 area seems like the floor currently. An updraft in the us dollar would see this crumble I think.

[1970 silver art]

Osoab,

Correct me if I am wrong but I see $19.50 as the major support level for silver. I was saying this because in the past, silver had a very hard time finishing above $19.50/oz. Based on what I saw in the past 3 occasions on silver, it would hit $19.50 during the intra day and stay above that level but it was never able to close above that level at the end of the day and the next day it would get smacked down and in the following days and weeks it would go back to $17-$18 before it worked its way back up. Eventually that $19.50 major support level will get tested and I hope that this major support level holds up.




Here is the 2010 chart Art.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2010.gif

I don't do any TA stuff. I am sure you could find reasons/analysis for support at any level 19.50, 20, 20.50, 21, etc.

Looks to me that 18 would be a firm floor using the above chart.

I would say 21-23 area seems like the floor currently. An updraft in the us dollar would see this crumble I think.


I am not a TA person either but that makes sense that $18 would be a floor for silver based on the chart. I probably should have pulled up the chart before I asked. I am speaking as a non-TA person but I saw $19.50 as the previous resistance level based on observing silver having past multiple failed attempts of breaking through that level but since silver finally broke through that resistance on the upside, I see $19.50 as a support level but it has not been tested yet. If silver broke through $19.50 on the downside, then I think that $18 could be tested again but might hold up as it has several times based on the chart. Thanks for posting the 2010 silver chart Osoab. :)

[mike88]

morning all. i follow the chartwork by hawkeye on gm2. holding long EXK silver , long physical. If the 1650 target for oz. gold is hit in january, and the silver gold ratio is 60 silver to one gold, it prices silver at 27.50 by that time. short covering by the leveraged paper market could drive this higher. investment demand for physical metal could also drive the price higher[ more demand for smaller amount of physical commodity] . of course the debasement of paper currency also drives the price/oz. higher.

[osoab]

HUI closed @ 533.33. Silver finally broke 24.


The GSR is nearing a 56 handle. 57 handle might not last much longer.

[osoab]

Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change from NY Close
Gold Charts
GOLD
10/13/2010 21:30 1377.50 1378.50 +5.60 +0.41%
Silver Charts SILVER
10/13/2010 21:30 24.26 24.31 +0.21 +0.87%
Platinum Charts PLATINUM
10/13/2010 21:30 1717.00 1720.00 +12.00 +0.70%
Palladium Charts PALLADIUM
10/13/2010 21:27 600.00 605.00 +6.00 +1.01%


What pullback do we expect from here? 24 seems to be a forgotten memory this evening. GSR has a 56 handle.

[mike88]

just got home from work. seeing green on the metals. 24.67 silver, dollar worth 1/1380th oz. gold. must be busy in asia tonite. hoping for a good day for the mining stocks all here are holding. picture in post shows the metal traders short desk.

[mike88]

may not be a pullback..............point and figure chart axstone posted earlier. usdx looking into an abyss on recent chart. ax calling for 1770 top on the chart he did

[mike88]

3:32 pacific time usdx 5 day chart 76.54

[osoab]

Silver got to 24.95 in the overnight it's around 24.44 currently.

Gold got up to 1388.30 and it's sitting at 1381.30 now.

Can we break 25 today on silver?

How about 1400 gold by the end of Friday.


I think this calls for a sumo rocket. ;D

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2180/2518081037_d4ef397890.jpg?v=0

[1970 silver art]

Silver got to 24.95 in the overnight it's around 24.44 currently.

Gold got up to 1388.30 and it's sitting at 1381.30 now.

Can we break 25 today on silver?

How about 1400 gold by the end of Friday.


I think this calls for a sumo rocket. ;D

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2180/2518081037_d4ef397890.jpg?v=0


It is certainly possible Osoab. I almost did not believe it but when I saw the silver high of $24.95 on the Kitco page, then I told myself that yeah it is possible that we can see $25 silver today (or maybe tomorrow). At the very least it can touch $25. There appears to be no stopping the DOG on its run. Gold might break $1400 either today or tomorrow.

[mike88]

2010 1/10 gae arrived today. 138.00 frn. ad was in a magazine, one of those outfits in texas, 1st national reserve. took 3 days from order to doorstep. came in a plastic holder, looks brand new. ;D

[osoab]

Crazy day for the R.E.E. stocks. Anyone seen any news that would justify the R.E.E. stocks rise?

REE up 25% They don't even have a working mine. ??? I didn't nibble on Friday when it was down.
MCP was up almost 10% off of its highs.
UCU was up 8.8%

Both of the metals came back from their losses overnight. That looked good to me.
I was hoping the dip might head further south for some cheaper physical. >:(

The miners were mixed up, down, even for the day.

I did dip into some TGB (http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/Home.asp)TGB on Friday.

I don't know if anyone saw this on ZeroHedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-taseko-mines-flash-crash-let-offending-algo-finally-be-punished)

I was watching this on Thursday. I never say the 50% down, but I did see -15%. I could not find a reason for the drop.

I didn't get the low of the morning on Friday, but a nice 4% gain on the day.

They have yet to report 3rd quarter returns. They report on Nov 8.

The due have a project in limbo. It is waiting on a Canadian gov approval.

From the Q2 report.


1.2.2 Prosperity Project

Taseko holds a 100% interest in the Prosperity property, located 125 kilometers southwest of the City of
Williams Lake. The property hosts a large porphyry gold-copper deposit amenable to open pit mining.
In early June, the British Columbia Provincial Government granted Taseko a long-term, renewable, 25-
year mining lease for the Prosperity Gold-Copper Project, providing the Company with mineral tenure
security for the project.

Permitting

On January 14, 2010, Taseko received the environmental assessment certificate for the Prosperity Project
from the British Columbia Provincial Ministry of Environment. This is an important milestone as it is the
Provincial Government which is responsible for mine development in British Columbia. The Provincial
Mines Act permit application was submitted to the Ministry of Energy, Mines, and Petroleum Resources
on June 17 and is currently before the Provincial Mine Development Review Committee.

The Federal Panel process, in which public hearings were conducted by a three-person Panel operating
under defined Terms of Reference, concluded on May 3, 2010. The Federal Panel submitted its findings
to the Federal Minister of Environment on July 2, 2010. The panel findings were essentially the same as
the conclusions reached in the Provincial Environmental Assessment but they were not mandated to
assess economic and social value generated by the project. The Canadian Federal Cabinet is expected to
make a decision in September or October 2010. It is believed that those social and economic factors
which justified the project in the Provincial Environmental Assessment will also be given prominence in
their deliberations.

TGB stock chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TGB)


edit to add Q2 report (http://www.tasekomines.com/i/pdf/TKO_%20Q2_2010.pdf)
and change to link for chart.

[osoab]

2010 1/10 gae arrived today. 138.00 frn. ad was in a magazine, one of those outfits in texas, 1st national reserve. took 3 days from order to doorstep. came in a plastic holder, looks brand new. ;D


And you didn't even let your pals over here at GSUS in on the deal? :redfc :whip :boom :CS

[mike88]

re 1/10 gae, now will come about 2 phone calls pitching their stuff. First National Reserve ltd. 120 Shakespeare, Beaumont Texas 77706. Phone 800 321 8700. can't hurt to call and see what they have. next one will def be posted here. check american rifleman, vfw magazine,ducks unlimited magazines. Saw some 90% silver us coinage at lucky loan in vancouver today. single coins, priced 10x face for a few of them. was shopping jewerly for the Loveflower, her birthday is soon. nice 24k chain, 18.6 grams for 938.00. tempting, but didn't wish to give the state the sales tax to piss away. Going to check the chinese guy on 82nd down in portland tomorrow, he has some nice 24k jewerly. those 24k chains look good with the pamp 10 gram pendant shaped bars @ apmex. jewerly report wed or tues. EXK down slightly today. Not a large drop in metals prices today.

[osoab]

I listened to the Adam Fergusson interview on Financial Sense" (http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2010/10/16/02/adam-fergusson-vitaliy-katsenelson/when-money-dies-problems-for-japan-china) over the weekend. Good listen imho. About the demise of the Wiemar Republic.

I had heard of obscene prices for the book about a year ago. I just found a hardcover on Amazon for 495 and one on ebay for 130.

Mr. Fergusson is publishing the book again. This is one book I think I will pick up.


Edit.

the blue part is a change. The mistake is saved below.

[gunDriller]

I listened to the Adam Fergusson interview on Financial Sense" (http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2010/10/16/02/adam-fergusson-vitaliy-katsenelson/when-money-dies-problems-for-japan-china) over the weekend. Good listen imho. About the demise of the Wiemar Republic.

I had heard of obscene prices for the book about a year ago. I just found a hardcover on Amazon for 495 and one on ebay for 130.

Mr. Smith is publishing the book again. This is one book I think I will pick up.


yeah, that was a good interview !

[mike88]

back from work. kitco ticker stuck again. silver 23.79 12:55 am pacific time. usdx .35 down. regular gasoline up .08 since saturday @ portland costco. Loveflower there today stocking up the pantry. have a deal set up for two one oz. silver bars @ spot price from private party needing diapers and a tank of gas. payday wed, [today] EXK in the green still. Still thinking the fiat economy will be pumped until after elections, they do that stuff every time. Holding physical and stock positions, averaging in buys of silver/gold .

[mike88]

Loveflower picking up 2 1 0z. silver bars today, spot silver price. Holding EXK silver stock, kitco ticker appears to be working again. MIL e mailing me regarding buying some gold, either k rand or 1 oz. bar. guess she is thinking of diversifying out of some paper assets. Flop the 5 year dollar chart upside down and it is a pretty good mirror of the 5 year gold chart.

[osoab]

So are we going to break 23 today?

[mike88]

us dollar got goosed pretty good around 10 am. 23.00 dollar silver a definate possibility imo. Wife back from picking up 2 oz. silver.......one 2008 silver eagle, one englehard bar 48.00 frn for both. seller needed diapers and a tank of gasoline. holding long physical and stock positions.

[osoab]

No sub 23 dollar yet. Got down to 23.01 so far.

Glad I waited to pickup some physical. Stopped by the local shop today. Eagles for 25 and 90% for 16x face. Couldn't argue with that. ;D I even found a really close parking spot.


So the REE's fell today after yesterday's nice rise. REE was down 22.7 after a 25% up day yesterday.

I found a few new REE miners. SHZ was up 87% yesterday. Down just 3.9% today.

AREM was up about 25% yesterday and down just 2.7% today.

DYODD and all that. I have yet to research these guys. I hope that one of the at least has a working mine. ???

I am a little disappointed in the miners. On the overall they didn't respond to yesterday's up tick and some got knocked around nicely today. I am still waiting to pick up a little more. Have yet to sell.

[mamboni]

The Chinese Silver Bullet :o :o :o


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQcxX1wOBxo&feature=channel

[cthulu]

The Chinese Silver Bullet :o :o :o


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQcxX1wOBxo&feature=channel



but but but china needs americans to consume stuff because only americans can consume stuff! :oo-->

[mike88]

Holding long EXK silver producer. Value in usd for pre 64 silver half dollar.8.58 frn.

[osoab]

Interesting read. I don't remember if I caught this here or not. The chart is a great visual.

http://timiacono.com/wp-content/uploads/10-10-20_gold_bubble.png

Now -That – Was a Gold Bubble (http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/10/20/now-that-was-a-gold-bubble/)


Depending upon where you start the 1979-1980 move, it could be made to look even bigger. It is shown above, somewhat arbitrarily, beginning in May of 1979 at about $250 an ounce, though, one could argue that starting in the low $200 range earlier in the year or below $200 an ounce in 1978 would be more appropriate.

For convenience, the chart above is also shown below without the green curve where the blue, red, and black lines look much more menacing with a 75 percent reduction in scale.

Clearly, the 2005-2006 move along with the surges in both 2007-2008 and 2009-2010 look quite different in the two charts and, when you think about it, you have to wonder: a) what the recent fuss is all about, and b) how much higher the gold price might go someday.

http://timiacono.com/wp-content/uploads/10-10-18_gold_bubble.png

[osoab]

Hecla reports tomorrow. Will their cost of silver production fall further? The nice rise in silver the last few weeks should help the balance sheet.

From their Q2. (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1452889&highlight=)


Hecla Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $13.7 Million and Operating Cashflow of $54.0 Million: Lowering Full-Year Cash Cost Guidance to $1.00-$1.50 Per Ounce1
For the Period Ended June 30, 2010

COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, Jul 28, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) today reported second quarter financial and operating results for 2010.

SECOND QUARTER 2010 HIGHLIGHTS

* Silver production of 2.6 million ounces
* Gold production of 17,880 ounces
* Cash costs of negative $1.82 per ounce of silver after by-product credits in the second quarter of 2010 and cash costs of negative $2.41 per ounce of silver in the first half of 2010
* Net income of $13.7 million, or 6 cents per basic share, applicable to common shareholders
* Cash flow from operations of $54.0 million
* Second highest gross profit and cash flow from operating activities in Hecla's 119-year history
* Strong balance sheet with more than $197 million in cash, up from $116 million at March 31, 2010

[mike88]

Another 1/10 gae offer, oct issue of nat geo. magazine. details on the gim2 site in the purchasing precious metals forum. not quite as juicy as the previous one. dyodd.

[mike88]

closed long position EXK for 14% gain since sept 9. :D

[mamboni]

closed long position EXK for 14% gain since sept 9. :D

Congratulations! That's how to make money in this market: the old in-out in-out! ;D

[mike88]

thanx doc, hows yer stuff doin? think the higher cap gains taxes coming up will facilitate an exit from equities before the year end? Gotta love socialism eh?

[mamboni]

thanx doc, hows yer stuff doin? think the higher cap gains taxes coming up will facilitate an exit from equities before the year end? Gotta love socialism eh?


I've been pondering that one and can't decide. Part of me wants to liquidate a big chunk of my portfolio and ride out the rest of the year in mostly cash. The other part is saying not to bother and just stick with the long term fundamentals of gold, silver and the miners. :conf: :conf: :conf: :conf:

Any council, advice or comforting words would be appreciated! ;D

[osoab]

thanx doc, hows yer stuff doin? think the higher cap gains taxes coming up will facilitate an exit from equities before the year end? Gotta love socialism eh?


I've been pondering that one and can't decide. Part of me wants to liquidate a big chunk of my portfolio and ride out the rest of the year in mostly cash. The other part is saying not to bother and just stick with the long term fundamentals of gold, silver and the miners. :conf: :conf: :conf: :conf:

Any council, advice or comforting words would be appreciated! ;D


I am holding doc FWIW. The stocks do not seem to be reflecting the movement of the metals.

I have heard a few pros discuss this issue. All of them are blaming the etf's and lazy brokers.

Broker "You want some gold and silver exposure? Sure, we'll put you into some GLD and SLV."

Are you still in the double oil etf?

[osoab]

Hecla's Q3 report.

Hecla Reports a 30% Increase in Cash Flow from Its Operations in Q3 Compared to the Same Period in 2009 (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1487614&highlight=)


COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, Oct 26, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) ("Hecla") today reported third quarter financial and operational results. The company generated $41.9 million in net cash from operating activities in the third quarter for a total of $115.3 million for the nine months period of 2010, up from $32.3 million and $51.9 million for the same periods in 2009.

THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

* Silver production of 2.7 million ounces at a total cash cost of negative $1.01 per ounce1
* Adjusted net income of $29.6 million, up 31% over the same period in 2009
* Income of $0.06 per share after preferred dividends
* Record revenues of $115.8 million representing a 21% increase over the same period in 2009
* Record gross profit of $54 million; 40% higher than the previous record
* Cash and cash equivalents of $217 million on hand at September 30, 2010
* Completed the excavation of the hoist room for the proposed internal #4 Shaft Project at Lucky Friday

And they got battered today with this news. Down about 1.6% now, was down around 4% when silver took it on the chin. EXK finished even to slightly positive.

[mamboni]

NO, I was watching UCO for a jump in price but never jumped in. Presently, I am 2/3 equities and 1/3 cash. 2/3 of my equities are bullion (CEF and a little PHYS) and 1/3 is miners, mostly GDXJ and the rest SIL.

What to do? What to do? Homina homina homina... :conf: :oo--> :conf: :oo--> :conf:

[mike88]

Overall, in this secular bull, I think time will be more important than price. IE, wait long enough and the market will pay the fed vigorish. Distasteful to feed the pigs, but we knew that when we entered the casino. I am checking uranium plays rest of the week. Wyoming miner urz, couple of others.

[osoab]

closed long position EXK for 14% gain since sept 9. :D


Still holding my shares in Endeavour and still long HL. Contemplated selling when we topped spot near 25, but didn't.

[osoab]

NO, I was watching UCO for a jump in price but never jumped in. Presently, I am 2/3 equities and 1/3 cash. 2/3 of my equities are bullion (CEF and a little PHYS) and 1/3 is miners, mostly GDXJ and the rest SIL.

What to do? What to do? Homina homina homina... :conf: :oo--> :conf: :oo--> :conf:


What is the degradation in the double ETF's? I have not done much research into any of the ETF's and have yet to dip a toe into any of them.

[osoab]

If we have a further drop in spot and miners, I will probably look to buy MGH (Minco Gold) @ 1.00 or lower and
UXG (US Gold) under 4.50.

[mamboni]

NO, I was watching UCO for a jump in price but never jumped in. Presently, I am 2/3 equities and 1/3 cash. 2/3 of my equities are bullion (CEF and a little PHYS) and 1/3 is miners, mostly GDXJ and the rest SIL.

What to do? What to do? Homina homina homina... :conf: :oo--> :conf: :oo--> :conf:


What is the degradation in the double ETF's? I have not done much research into any of the ETF's and have yet to dip a toe into any of them.


Do you mean price attrition? As far as I can tell from charts, UCO perfectly mirrors USO except it's leveraged 2X.

[DMac]

NO, I was watching UCO for a jump in price but never jumped in. Presently, I am 2/3 equities and 1/3 cash. 2/3 of my equities are bullion (CEF and a little PHYS) and 1/3 is miners, mostly GDXJ and the rest SIL.

What to do? What to do? Homina homina homina... :conf: :oo--> :conf: :oo--> :conf:


What is the degradation in the double ETF's? I have not done much research into any of the ETF's and have yet to dip a toe into any of them.


The short and skinny: trade vehicles only. In and out. Same day trades only, if possible. Don't hold longer than 1-4 days and never into the weekend. The "decay" leeches value of the shares as a part of the structure of the financial vehicle.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/119316-double-and-triple-etfs-decay-their-value-faster-by-design

[mike88]

It appears to me that the precious metals are anticipating the Q whatever number coming up in the fed announcement end of month. Will the fed governors create currency in an orgy of debasement, or will a sane monetary policy start to emerge?

[osoab]

Well I was going to post a question if we would see 25 tonight. Well, it already occurred.

So are we up through the elections and FOMC?

Miners lagged big time Friday behind the metals. Still don't understand that. :dunno

Hecla has yet to see a real spike from their Q3 announcement.

[mike88]

silver short positions must be getting slaughtered. if they are put in a squeeze, silver metal will rocket from here. as far as the mining stocks, i really believe the average investor is still unaware of them. their value will become apparent to more investors soon. still time to get positioned .

[osoab]

silver short positions must be getting slaughtered. if they are put in a squeeze, silver metal will rocket from here. as far as the mining stocks, i really believe the average investor is still unaware of them. their value will become apparent to more investors soon. still time to get positioned .


I have been checking out numbers @ http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hl&submit=Short+Quote%99 The shorts on the miners seem to be increasing. If there numbers are correct. About 1/6 of Hecla shares are short. It's not just HL either.

The etf's are pulling a lot of the metal interest too. Sprott just issued his silver etf, PSLV, last week. We have a new REE etf, REMX.

[mike88]

Not going to touch the etf's myself. I would rather have a piece of the actual resource in the ground via shares of the company.

[mike88]

Closed out URZ position for gain. holding Vanadium miner Energizer for longer term. What is the call on EXK? may want to jump back onboard that one, good drill results at one of their mexican properties.

[osoab]

Closed out URZ position for gain. holding Vanadium miner Energizer for longer term. What is the call on EXK? may want to jump back onboard that one, good drill results at one of their mexican properties.


EXK has been relatively flat at the close the last few days along with HL and MFN. Seemed to have followed the metals price closely. Still holding. I don't plan to sell this one for some time.

The metal price Friday, Monday and Today just seems odd. Some of it is dollar based but not all of it.

Election moves?

I was looking at that shortsqueeze site again. EXK has about 1% of its shares short. HL is running about 17% short.
MFN is running about 4.6%. SVM (shouldn't have sold this guy) is running 2 tenths of one percent.

I don't understand the short interest in HL. Anyone got an explanation.

Thanks for reminding of ENZR. I have been watching this guy. I just couldn't remember why it was on my screen.

TGB took a crap after hours down 28 percent. Canadian feds (http://www.tasekomines.com/tko/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=426130&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Taseko-Mines-Responds-to-the-Federal-Governments-Decision-on-Prosperity) didn't allow the mine to proceed.

I burned myself on this one.

[mike88]

The economies which are actually building things are going to need vanadium for steel. There is also a developing battery technology using vanadium metal which is useful in wind generated electrical grids. The vanadium batteries can be heavily discharged multiple times during periods of low wind generation. The mine they control has estimated 13% worldwide supply in this location. I will hold the position as it is performing well. Hope you hit a home run on your next speculative miner osoab, losing sucks, i know.

[osoab]

What a day. Down just .4% and .64% for Ag and Au respectively. Seems like a ho hum day at the final numbers.

Miners seemed mixed. They all seem to crash earlier with the metals. Some finished positive for the day.

TGB only finished 24% down for the day. :oo-->

Sold a day too soon on URZ there mike. Up 15.3% gain today.

So, anyone got the reasoning for the quick buying dip today?

[mike88]

The metals will not be held down for long, 24.83/oz. silver as i type. As for URZ, that's life at the big casino. Fed announcement may have dipped prices this am. The old supply and demand thing has re asserted their value in a matter of hours. Holding the vanadium miner, may nibble a bit @ end of year and increase position. Cashing in trading account for now and buying physical with it.

[1970 silver art]

What a day. Down just .4% and .64% for Ag and Au respectively. Seems like a ho hum day at the final numbers.

Miners seemed mixed. They all seem to crash earlier with the metals. Some finished positive for the day.

TGB only finished 24% down for the day. :oo-->

Sold a day too soon on URZ there mike. Up 15.3% gain today.

So, anyone got the reasoning for the quick buying dip today?


I cannot speak for the gold and silver stocks but in terms of the physical spot prices, they did not do that bad at all IMO. Both gold and silver did very well considering that they were down much further than where they finished at today. Correct me if I am wrong but I think that silver was down as far as a $1 before it recovered. That is very amazing to me. This gold and silver run is very strong.

[osoab]

I cannot speak for the gold and silver stocks but in terms of the physical spot prices, they did not do that bad at all IMO. Both gold and silver did very well considering that they were down much further than where they finished at today. Correct me if I am wrong but I think that silver was down as far as a $1 before it recovered. That is very amazing to me. This gold and silver run is very strong.


It was over a dollar move top to bottom today. Sitting at 25.02 now. Very nice.

I would agree with support currently at 23. Bounced at 24ish today.

[osoab]

Broke the 53 handle on the GSR sitting @ 53.78 currently

[DMac]

Just One ETF: Buying Value in the Ground Through Metals and Mining (http://seekingalpha.com/article/234675-just-one-etf-buying-value-in-the-ground-through-metals-and-mining?source=dashboard_etfs)


Which single asset class are you most bullish (or bearish) about in the coming year? What ETF position would you choose to best capture that?

I became bullish about the Metals and Mining sector early this year and began buying SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (XME) in February. Its weighting in my fund has fluctuated and presently stands at 8.5%. My work doesn’t give me any reason to believe I won’t still be bullish into 2011.

How does XME fit into your overall investment approach? Tell us a bit about your strategy and goals.

I manage the ETF Market Opportunity Fund (ETFOX), which is an open-ended no-load mutual fund that invests primarily in ETFs. I screen the entire universe of ETFs using a proprietary quantitative model which ranks the ETFs on a reward/risk basis. I then construct a portfolio of the top-ranked ETFs using Modern Portfolio Theory.

My goal is to make sure my fund’s investors are compensated for the risk they are taking. Too many investors are given below-market returns while taking on above-market risk. My fund’s beta through September 30, 2010, is 0.88 (Morningstar), and it is beating the S&P 500 by 3.24% per year since its inception in 2004.

And so XME has a higher-than-category beta of 1.66; it's the outsized alpha here that makes it a good fit for you?

The high beta of 1.66 does not hurt my portfolio (which has a beta of 0.88) because it isn't highly correlated to the S&P 500. It is a good fit because it is trending higher and allows me to add uncorrelated beta into the portfolio, which is adding to my alpha without adding to my total beta.

Tell us a little more about the asset class. What makes metals and mining your top pick?

My quantitative work has put the Metals & Mining ETF near the top of my rankings, and all of my fundamental research is in support. XME is a domestic fund which invests approximately 30% in Coal, 30% in Iron/Steel, 37% in Mining, and the remaining 3% in Fabricators.

A lot of my work is leaning towards sectors which own something of value, quite often in the ground. It is very hard to predict if the current top flash drive makers will be on the leading edge of technology 10 years from now, but I am quite certain we will need more copper than we are presently using. I know there has been talk of a double-dip, but none of my work is corroborating that.

I believe the two strongest themes behind this investment are the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and the possibility of increased demand going forward. The R-squared value of XME is below 60, which means less than 60% of its daily price movement can be attributed to the move in the S&P 500. Low R-squared values help me during the Modern Portfolio Theory component of my portfolio construction and allow me build a “less risky” portfolio.

Are there alternative ETFs that could be used to capture the same theme?

Yes, I could build XME myself using ETFs such as Market Vectors - Coal ETF (KOL) and Market Vectors - Steel (SLX), but XME’s expense ratio of 0.35 makes that a bad decision (KOL: 0.59; SLX: 0.56].

Aside from the tax benefits of not investing directly in a "collectible," but rather in the producers, there's some synergy here as well, right? If investors think gold is bubbly, there's exposure to more "useful" silver - and a lot of silver worldwide comes out of the refining process for copper and other metals, for example.

Yes, gold is great as a U.S. dollar hedge, but the other metals also have industrial usage as demand pressure on their price.

Does your view differ from the consensus sentiment in this area?

I don’t listen to too much outside analysis. I value James Grant’s [Grant's Interest Rate Observer] ideas greatly, and I believe he is also bullish on this sector. I look at fund flows in ETFs and I don’t believe the “herd” has flocked into this sector yet.

What catalysts, near-term or long-term, could move the sector significantly?

A move back into recession or any deflation will hurt this ETF, and I'm watching closely for both. I spoke with Jonathan Liss of Seeking Alpha at the end of last year and I stated that we would not see deflation. It is the main worry of the Fed, and if you review any of Ben Bernanke's early writings, you know that he will do anything to defeat deflationary pressures.

The second round of quantitative easing is already priced into this sector, and may actually cause a short-term dip via "selling the news." However, the long-term damage being done to the U.S. dollar will help this sector. I believe that in the decades ahead, countries will fight wars over natural resources and I have no problem being an early investor in domestic metals and mining.

What could go wrong with your pick?

There is a litany of things that could go wrong, and that is why I would never advise to purchase just one ETF. It takes a lot of work to get a portfolio on or near the “efficient frontier” between risk and reward. Funds such as XME that pass both my quantitative and fundamental screening help me in my attempt to compensate investors for risk.

Thanks, Paul, for sharing your ideas with us.

Disclosure: Long XME

now on my watch list
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=XME

[osoab]

SVM up damn near 20% :o

[osoab]

Broke 52 handle in the GSR. 52.93

[osoab]

Well HL finally had a breakout up 11.1% for the day. EXK up 8.4%. That can make one smile.

SVM finished at 15.5% up. And frickin SLW is over 32 and they don't even have a mine.

Definitely a day to remember.

That is until silver pops 3 dollars in a day. :o

[mamboni]

The Silver Alpha

By Jim Willie CB
Nov 4 2010 1:26PM
www.GoldenJackass.com



A love affair with silver is so natural. The fundamentals are astoundingly positive and bullish in price prospects. My basic argument has been repeated many times. Industry has countless uses for silver, significant demand. But industry has only miniscule isolated uses for gold, in trivial demand. So silver wins on the Demand side of the equation. Central banks own a huge amount of gold. They frequently sell it, even through their slippery surrogate the Intl Monetary Fund. The central banks own zero silver. So silver wins on the Supply side of the equation. My motto is that gold fights the major political and financial war, but silver will ride in on a shiny white horse and take much larger spoils. That effect has already begun. To be sure, if multi-$billion profit is desired, gold offers greater practical potential than silver. Since the significant game changing FOMC meeting on September 21st, where the loud & clear message delivered to the world financial markets was made by megaphone, the impact has been emphatically stark. Take closing prices on September 21st versus October 29th, just five weeks, the silver price had risen from $20.64 to $24.56, up 19.0%. During the same timespan, the gold price had risen from $1274.30 to $1357.60, up 6.5%. My claim, a loose forecast often repeated, has been that the silver breakout gains would be at least double and possible triple the gold gains. We have seen exactly that in recent weeks.


An extremely fuzzy factor is the CFTC attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is supposedly investigating the Big Four Banks for outsized concentrated short positions in the silver market, for alleged naked shorting of silver, and for collusion with other banks. Commissioner Bart Chilton has stirred the kettle a bit, more words than deeds. Some find encouragement. The impact from a rising silver price due to the threat of prosecution is much greater than the likelihood of court action itself. Some class action lawsuits against JPMorgan have begun, but unclear on substance. They crop up every couple weeks, the latest citing a RICO aspect. Let's wait to see any liquidation of their short positions. Let's see if national security is invoked in defense. Greenspan routinely used national security to refuse answers on the gold inventory status, even before the USCongress. Unless and until such action occurs, the CFTC chirping is just that, noise from the control room at the behest of bankers. By the way, the Big Four positions are naked short positions in all likelihood. They appear immune from posting collateral, as required by the metals exchanges. Good Morning New York resulted in almost a full $1.00 drop in the silver price on Wednesday, a pounce before the announced QE decision by the US Federal Reserve with its statement. The full impact of the ambush decline was reversed by afternoon, and on Thursday morning $25.50 was reached in continued momentum.


SUPPLY & DEMAND BASICS

Silver total demand was essentially flat in 2009 versus 2008, as the world adjusted to a major meltdown late in 2008. During the extraordinary disruptions, disturbances, and sudden insolvencies, JPMorgan liquidated much of the inherited (commandeered) precious metals accounts from Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. In the case of Bear Stearns, a solid argument can be made that they were targeted due to their long gold account. In the case of Lehman, they were targeted in order to consolidate the power structure in the twin monoliths at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. On silver demand, the bulk of the 11.9% decline in the 2009 fabrication demand was primarily driven by the global financial crises. The reduced drop in industrial requirements took it to the lowest level since 2003. Total fabrication demand totaled 729.8 million oz and industrial demand was 352.2 moz in consumption. Much of the decline in factory demand was attributed to the car industry.


Implied net silver investment increased by a staggering 184% to 136.9 million oz last year, reaching its highest level in 20 years. Silver is not viewed as just another industrial metal anymore. Overall jewelry demand fell slightly by 1.1% in 2009 to 156.6 moz, a testament to the historical norm. It falls with a bull market, not to contradict it, but to confirm it!! That is the opposite message to what the official gold industry often preaches. In fact, India and China posted increases in jewelry demand last year, outside the global trend. Silverware demand rose by a decent 4.6% to 59.5 moz, largely due to a surge in Indian fabrication. Their middle class grows impressively.

As for supply, the silver mine production rose by 4.0% to 709.6 moz in 2009. Gains came both from primary silver mines and output from auxiliary mining by-product. The strongest growth came from Latin America, where silver output increased by a hefty 8%, the biggest gains logged in Argentina and Bolivia. Again Peru was the world leader in silver production in 2009, followed by Mexico, China, Australia, and Bolivia. All of these countries saw increases last year except for Australia, where output was dragged down from the lead/zinc sector, with the by-product impact. Some mines are devoted solely to silver targets, called primary silver projects. Global primary silver output saw a 7% increase in 2009, accounting for 30% of total mine production last year. The cash operating costs for primary silver mines remained relatively stable, rising by less than 1% to $5.23/oz in 2009. The big story is the huge decline in net silver supply from above ground inventory stocks, which were reduced by 86% to 20.2 moz in 2009. The drawdown was driven mostly by the surge in net investment, higher de-hedging (the active reduction in forward sale contracts), lower government sales (like official mints), and a drop in scrap supply. The scrap supply came down by 6% from 2008, enough to register a 13-year low of 165.7 moz. It was the third consecutive year of losses in the scrap category. Government stocks of silver, the feeder in official coin mint programs, fell by an estimated 13.7 moz last year, to reach their lowest levels in more than a decade. Data was supplied by the Silver Institute.

IMPACT OF Q.E. CANCER

The big event on the horizon has been the US Midterm Elections, just completed. Its outcome was close to poll expectations. Many decisions have been delayed. Much policy detail has been withheld. Unfortunate pauses to major programs have come as a result. A palpable dread can be identified and pointed to. Difficult unpopular decisions will now be made. Some of the decisions will involve continued bank sector welfare after failed fiduciary responsibility. Some of the next programs or legislation will involve devious political and legal cover for criminal bond fraud related to the mortgage industry, which is fully in the open for dissection, outcry, and acrimonious debate. The keen observers should watch for cleverly constructed escape routes without the consequences of voter backlash. Furthermore is the issue of political partisan gridlock. Only weak brain stems would call the gridlock constructive or a good thing in the current setting. When a nation is mired in a financial crisis, requires leadership, demands restructure, and urgently needs reform, any inaction from gridlock is like fighting over the steering wheel on a big tractor trailer truck unable to manage a winding road, certain to careen over the cliff. Activists should demand that private bank accounts be investigated of a long list of leaders, past and present.
The most reliable and expert sources within my contacts mention a specific point, with consistency. When the US elections are over, and after the USFed gives some guidance on the QE2 Launch for monetized debt, the system will experience tremendous added strains and will gradually show signs of breakdown again, in accelerated mode. This time, unlike September 2008, efforts to stabilize will not be possible. The system will degrade, since critical supports, control cables, and buttresses have been removed in the last several months. Next comes deeper breakdown. The Midterm Elections served at the roadblock event, the beacon on the horizon, the delayed lit fuse. The actions taken in November will involve both the US captains and foreign entities. The US policy makers can act without as much concern of voter backlash. The foreign financial decision makers can act with knowledge that the USGovt, the USFed, and Wall Street will not make a single solitary move toward bank system reform, toward bank debt restructure, or toward debt liquidation on the balance sheets. Instead, the US will redouble the magnitude of what failed, their established habit, their engrained failure in policy, their legacy.


The main worry by the USFed and USDept Treasury will center on foreign creditors and abandonment. US bank leaders will ramp up the monetization under the QE2 banner with added motivation. Trade war stokes the fires of hostility, angst, and rebuke. Foreign creditors are worried that their debt security paper is being diluted. Its value will be diminished, but later in time. Expect a new European Dollar Swap Facility to be announced soon, but with less delay than the last one. They must match and offset the power of the QE2 initiative. The Bank of England matched cancer with cancer, announcing a fresh 200 billion Pounds in monetized debt on Thursday. The Euro Central Bank matched move will come later. It could be urgently declared by EU in next several weeks. They must defend against a rising Euro currency. Do not be trapped into thinking a USTreasury Bond rally means a USDollar coincident rise. The USTBonds are paid from the Printing Pre$$, which means no source of funds to convert. The Jackass still believes 2.0% is an important 10-year USTreasury yield target. All hell breaks loose after the target is hit, as the USTBond bubble is likely to give off massive greenhouse gas afterwards.


UNWIND OF TREMENDOUS SUPPRESSION

When professional equity analysts ply their craft in examining the merits of a certain stock, they often use a simple statistical technique. They fit a model of the growth in a stock Y versus the sector X in which it trades, like BAC (Bank of America) versus the BKX (bank index). They fit a model of the growth of a major stock Y versus the X market backdrop, like IBM versus the S&P500 index. A stock Y performs well if it does better than its sector or does better than the entire market. That shows up as a BETA over 1.0 within the fitted model often using data as weekly change entries in price for X and Y. Take silver as Y and the entire commodity arena as X, as measured for instance by the CRB index. Clearly silver rises and falls with the commodities, and even makes swings with more volatility than other items. That testifies to a high silver BETA. Lately, the silver move has been powerful, much bigger than other commodity items since it is being recognized as a currency hedge, a safe haven asset, with the menace of lawsuits and investigations hanging overhead. In fact, Silver is a currency, if pure money can be classified as currency at all. Like gold, silver is a super-currency.

Y = α + β X

The important aspect to highlight in the linear price change model is the ALPHA component. When an asset or stock has a particular advantage or unique strength, it can outperform its entire class. Take for instance a pharmaceutical firm with a vaccine discovery, or a computer firm like Apple with a nifty IPod winner, or a mining firm with a huge ore discovery or great process improvement. Silver and gold each share a robust ALPHA feature that is not often mentioned, even in the gold community. As the monetary system crumbles further, as the big banks topple amidst insolvency, as the sovereign debt for certain nations defaults, as the USGovt deficits spiral endlessly into the $trillions, the concept of real money is being questioned by important chambers of global finance. Money wants to escape the false monetary clutches, and find true safe haven. Sound money is sought out with increased vigor and even urgency to preserve wealth. At the same time, the whiff of illicit activity from at least two decades of enormous alleged naked short positions has conspired to suppress the price of gold & silver. The slow healing of the market alteration reveals the manifestation of the Silver Alpha, during its release.
The monetary system works gradually to shine a bright light on the shady precious metals market, and to force disclosure of the puny bullion volume at the official metals exchanges. Angry depositors like the Chinese and Arabs have been demanding their bullion for return back home, no longer trusting the London and New York custodians. They have become alerted to illicit gold leasing as a common practice. The fraud of the USGovt balance sheets, recording deep storage gold as a ledge item, only adds to the motive to bring the gold market to a full proper accounting. The fast rising lethal USGovt deficits have brought cries to prove the collateral for new debt added upon old debt, in an uncontrollable debt episode. The world pursues gold & silver, suspecting the USGovt has a pittance in collateral. Foreign creditors are angry that the gold & silver they hold has been pushed down in price by chronically deployed devices.


The consequence is that SILVER possesses a high ALPHA. What lifts the ALPHA is many factors, each powerful. The Silver price will rise much more than price inflation. The Silver price will rise in response to money fleeing corrosive vehicles like the major currencies, whose basis is not gold but rather rapidly growing debt resting upon fractured banking and economic foundations. The Silver price will rise as the USTreasury Bond bubble becomes more widely recognized. The Silver price will rise as greater volumes of freshly printed money undermine the USDollar amply behind controlled activity. The Silver price will rise more than most analysts anticipate out of the sheer movement toward release from controlled markets that hold down the price after a mountain of silver has been shorted into the market, probably with little or no collateral. THIS IS THE ESSENCE OF ALPHA!! The shorts are being squeezed, in clear fashion since August. The short quantity for Silver is well beyond a full year of annual global output from the mining industry. Metals exchanges have worked busily to produce 'Synthetic Inventory' since it likely does not exist. As the markets work toward a freely traded system that seeks a true equilibrium, the Silver price will move past $100 per ounce as hyper-inflation blossoms on the monetary and economic sides. But first it will surpass the $40 price, maybe by late 2011 or early 2012. The silver ALPHA is big, and that fact will be quite evident very soon, if not already. My forecast is for a $29 to 31 price for Silver by mid-January. Both December and January are strong seasonal months for silver, just like September. Notice how silver is outperforming the commodity group, and shows a BETA over one.


continued at:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/nov042010.html

[osoab]

Nice end to the week.

I really expected a profit taking day yesterday. All but 27 for Ag and damn near 1400 for gold.

What a beautiful week for the metals. I was a little surprised that platinum didn't follow along on Friday.

Miners kept moving nicely again on Friday.
EXK was up 11.1% on the day and another 1.3% after hours sitting @ 5.95.
Still letting it ride.

HL was a subdued 3.3% up on Fri. Hecla hit 8.20 early in the day to finish at 7.93.
Staying long here also.

TGB still hurts. I hope that the metal movement can take some sting out of this one.

So what to expect when trading opens on Sunday night? I think we break both 27 and 1400 easily.

How much longer can the silver shorts take this beating?
How far can the TPTB slam the metals down ahead of OPex?

[mike88]

higher price/oz. continuing is my call. The rush to tangible assets is a self re enforcing feedback loop. Furthur fall in fiat purchasing power drives acquisition of a finite amount of goods. Holding a bag of fiat is looking less and less attractive, like a game of hot potato. Wait until 100/day gold and 10/day silver moves occur. The gold/ silver ratio is shrinking weekly, thanx osoab for the posting of these. Exciting times.

[StackerKen]

I see $60 silver and $2000 gold happening within the next year or two.

Meaning, I think silver will out shine gold in the coming years :)

[osoab]

Do we break into the 50 handle on the GSR? We seemed to have blasted past the 51 handle. Sitting @ 51.08 right now.

[osoab]

Hecla, Hecla, Hecla. Up 13% today. I haven't looked at after hours.

EXK up a modest 9.2%.

Even MF got in on the action up 6.3%. (Just waiting till I can hit a break even on this guy.) Average is @ 9.99. Ouch.

SVM and SLW didn't keep pace today.

Broke the 50 handle on the GSR.
This is the point where Saul Mine said it was time to swap. (Wish that guy would get back to posting here)
I will probably swap @ 40.

So where do we go from here. Up until a few days before OpEx?

[osoab]

Caught this comment over @ ZeroHedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-allows-red-close-and-all-time-record-high-close-gold-jpms-commodity-trading-desk-need-ba#comment-709796)

FWIW


little birdie told me that it took Sprott over a week to locate only 65 MM worth of silver. Another 200 MM worth came from Europe ( massive shipping and insurance costs associated). Most of the rest he had to transfer from his other funds which held physical ( essential a paper transfer). He basically cleaned out alll that was left in physical in North America and Europe. Hence silver has run up dramatically in the last week as there is absolutely nothing left.

[1970 silver art]

I see $60 silver and $2000 gold happening within the next year or two.

Meaning, I think silver will out shine gold in the coming years :)


I completely agree with you that silver will outshine gold in the near future. As to what the prices will be, that will remain to be seen. Anything is possible.

[mike88]

usd now worth 1/28th oz silver. . ought to be fun to see the metal stocks in the am. yowsa!!!

[osoab]

Hit the 49 handle in the GSR overnight. Wow.

[mike88]

very nice, like a dream coming true. everyone looks like a genius in this kind of bull.

[osoab]

very nice, like a dream coming true. everyone looks like a genius in this kind of bull.


My account is showing HL up 3.8% in pre-market trading. MF is down 1.1%

[osoab]

Miners have fallen way back off of the morning highs. >:( Still up, just not as much.

Profit taking?

[osoab]

Wow. I hate roller coasters.

So we had the CME changing margin requirements, the bucky popped a little one, and China downgrading the U.S.

EXK was up about 13% early, finished down 9.2%.

HL was up about 10% and finished down 5.8%

MFN was up about 2% finished down 2.7%.

I am looking @ after hours numbers.

Still holding. Considered selling (or trying to get an order filled) at the highs today, decided better not.

So, do we have an encore for tomorrow, or do we go bland for a few days?

[Neuro]

Wow. I hate roller coasters.

So we had the CME changing margin requirements, the bucky popped a little one, and China downgrading the U.S.

EXK was up about 13% early, finished down 9.2%.

HL was up about 10% and finished down 5.8%

MFN was up about 2% finished down 2.7%.

I am looking @ after hours numbers.

Still holding. Considered selling (or trying to get an order filled) at the highs today, decided better not.

So, do we have an encore for tomorrow, or do we go bland for a few days?


I think we go bland for a few days, range between 26.50 and 29 (quite a range to be bland in actually)

[osoab]

I think we go bland for a few days, range between 26.50 and 29 (quite a range to be bland in actually)


I would like to see 30 before Friday close. Something for the bobble heads on TeeVee to ponder. Need another round milestone for resistance. We passed 25 way too quickly.

This is why I can't see a dramatic pull back in the metals or commodities in general. Unless there is another dramatic rise in the bucky, I don't think it could happen. With QE2 getting ready to be implemented and a chatter of QE3. QE4, & QE5 being discussed, I don't see the major fall back. Anything can happen, but I think the outside heavy hitters are no longer going lock step with the vampire squid.

I did just notice the 3 dollar swing in the white metal's price. Wow. I thought it was around 2 bucks.

[osoab]

Investopedia Stock Simulator (http://simulator.investopedia.com/?viewed=1)

Anyone interested in starting up a session for Q1 2011 if the world has not ended by that time.

Time for some goading and competition.

[mike88]

Sold URRE @ 2.72 this am, had sell order set up last night. banked half profit, opened small position NGLPF.OB, a Nevada geothermal electricity producer. Holding EXK position, spot price climbing as this is being typed. Holding Vanadium explorer stock ENZR. They are both speculative plays, going to hold for 2 years+. Sagi on the GIM2 site follows these energy stocks, good at chart work and spotting trends. I followed his recce on the uranium being overbought. Analysis is valuable, gut feeling and some amount of luck helps also. Make your own luck with research and analysis. Will re evaluate EXK at the 10.00 area, if Ben is still refueling the money drop helecopter, it will be a hold/add position. My thinking on the geo thermal company, no fuel cost to generate electric power, gov. guarenteed loans for plant expansion/ exploration, they have teamed up with a bigger company for a new project in oregon. the geothermal U.S. map looks good also.

[osoab]

Sold URRE @ 2.72 this am, had sell order set up last night. banked half profit, opened small position NGLPF.OB, a Nevada geothermal electricity producer. Holding EXK position, spot price climbing as this is being typed. Holding Vanadium explorer stock ENZR. They are both speculative plays, going to hold for 2 years+. Sagi on the GIM2 site follows these energy stocks, good at chart work and spotting trends. I followed his recce on the uranium being overbought. Analysis is valuable, gut feeling and some amount of luck helps also. Make your own luck with research and analysis. Will re evaluate EXK at the 10.00 area, if Ben is still refueling the money drop helecopter, it will be a hold/add position. My thinking on the geo thermal company, no fuel cost to generate electric power, gov. guarenteed loans for plant expansion/ exploration, they have teamed up with a bigger company for a new project in oregon. the geothermal U.S. map looks good also.


It's funny you bring up uranium. Guy I talked stocks to asked me about uranium miners this morning. Granted, he will only listen to CNBC and not do any research. I haven't looked at them for a spell.

Your thoughts on Bennie are the same as mine. That's why I am hesitant to take profits currently. Too much funny stuff is going on currently.

[mike88]

Countries with actual productive economies will need electric power and nuclear is an option. china has commisioned plants, india also. Longer investment horizon than some commodities, but the price/lb has been rising. Wyoming is miner/explorer friendly, still finding viable deposits there. Northern Canada has signifigant deposits also.

[mike88]

EXK nice increase this am, silver metal recovering from the regulatory monkey business yesterday. Wondering if the unnamed banks with the concentrated short positions arranged a paid vacation to the market regulators in exchange for raising margin rates. Guess the market is stronger than the thugs attempting to rig it. Apmex seems to have raised premiums on 10 oz. bars last ime i was on there. 80% Canadian junk coinage looks to be the lowest cost right now. If anyone knows of better deals for 10 oz. bars ,I wish to know. Also 90% us junk coinage. Thanks.

[osoab]

Don't know where to buy Canadian junk Mike. My local guy rarely has the stuff. Did get a couple of rolls of quarters from him a few weeks ago. Some of those guys were pristine. Looked straight from a fresh roll. They made up for the worn ones.

I would buying local is the way to go. You may need to buy a little higher the first few times, but it pays off later.
I picked up Ag @ 27 over the weekend, spot was 26.75. I couldn't complain about that.


EXK had a stellar rebound day. 13% plus is what my account is showing for after hours.

HL, MFN, SLW, SLV all had nice days, but not like EXK.

Metals were see saw again today.
Kitco is showing a $1.60 swing in Ag and about a $25 swing in Au.
Palladium definitely had the show for today.

I see that the GSR is back around 51.71.

I am wonder what the other margin changes (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/commodity-margin-hikes-continue-next-soybeans) are going to do to the whole commodity complex.
If a large number of players have to divest of their longs due to margin changes, could we see a waterfall event?

Going back to the uranium miners.
I was looking @ one 6 months or so back, URRE. They were a .50 stock then. Now at 2.67 up 21% on the day.
Never picked it up. :'(

[osoab]

Market schedule for tomorrow.

Veterans Day, Remembrance Day Trading Schedule (http://www.letstalkfutures.com/2010/11/09/veterans-day-remembrance-day-trading-schedule/)


Thursday, November 11, 2010

CME Group Equity Products
1515 CT – Regular CME Globex close for trade date Thurs, Nov 11
1530 CT – Regular CME Globex open for trade date of Fri, Nov 12

CME Group Interest Rate Products
Open outcry trading closed.
1600 CT – Regular CME Globex close for all CME electronic interest rate and CBOT financial products for trade date Thurs, Nov 11
1700 CT – Regular CME Globex open for CME electronic interest rate products for trade date Fri, Nov 12
1730 CT – Regular CME Globex open for CBOT electronic financial products for trade date Fri, Nov 12

CME Group FX Products
Open outcry trading closed.
1600 CT – Regular CME Globex electronic close for trade date Thur, Nov 11
1700 CT – Regular CME Globex electronic open for trade date Fri, Nov 12

NYMEX/COMEX Products on CME Globex
1615 CT / 1715 ET – Regular CME Globex close for trade date of Thurs, Nov 11
1700 CT / 1800 ET – Regular CME Globex open for trade date Fri, Nov 12

KOSPI 200 Futures on CME Globex
0300 CT – Regular CME Globex open for trade date Thurs, Nov 11
1400 CT – Regular CME Globex close for trade date Thurs, Nov 11

All Other CME Group Products, including KCBT and MGEX on CME Globex
Regular Close – Per each product schedule for trade date Thurs, Nov 11
Regular Open – Per each product schedule for trade date Fri, Nov 12

ICE Futures Canada
All markets closed.

ICE Futures U.S.
Open outcry markets closed. All electronic markets observe regular hours; financial product settlements based on prices during the 12:59 – 13:00 ET period.

NYSE Liffe
Regular trading hours.

The schedule is taken from sources that Lind-Waldock believes are accurate and are subject to change. The schedule has been assembled for information purposes only, and Lind-Waldock is not responsible for any errors or omissions. To confirm any part of the schedule, please call your trade desk, or check the Web site of the appropriate exchange.

[osoab]

Fed POMO Schedule (http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html)

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/POMO%20Schedule.jpg


Zero Hedge link. POMO Schedule Announced: $105 Billion In 18 Monetizations Through December 9 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pomo-schedule-announced-105-billion-monetizations-through-december-9)


The Fed's marching orders to the Primary Dealers are now public: $105 billion in 18 nearly daily operations over the next month. Let the Fed frontrunning begin. Also, still wondering why the 30 Year turned around today: the Fed will buy back today's 30 Year issue (and others) next Friday, and of course someone just got wind of this ahead of the POMO announcement. Lastly, as the Fed no longer wants to be seen as gaming the "Tendered to Submitted" ratio, Brian Sack is actually releasing how much of any given bucket he will buy back, so to telegraph absolutely everything about his Dow 36,000 intentions. And just in case one POMO a day is not sufficient, on November 29, the Fed will hold two. The second one is footnoted as follows: "This operation is tentatively scheduled to begin around 1:15 PM and close at 2:00 PM." Whatever you do, don't be short on November 29. Which of course means, be short, as nobody will be short.

[osoab]

This is the best explanation for the movement down late in the day.

I thought it was due to the bucky moving higher. I didn't look at the bonds.

From Trader Dan The Long Term Implications Of QE2 (http://jsmineset.com/2010/11/15/the-long-term-implications-of-qe2/)


After the close of pit session trading in New York, several of the commodity markets began to slip lower in their electronic trading session. The culprit was the following chart action as evidenced by the daily price action of the US long bond.

It smashed through the floor of support that had been established last week as if it was non-existent. The reason – bond traders began having second thoughts about the extent of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing purchases and the duration of that program on account of the strong wave of criticism that has been unleashed against the Fed for pursuing what more and more people are becoming convinced is wrongheaded and ultimately fraught with serious long term implications towards the health of the US Dollar. It seems as if a growing majority are more concerned with the inflation that this sort of money creation is going to create than with any potential effect it might have on the US employment situation.

That had traders and hedge funds pulling money out of various risk trades and left individual commodity markets exposed to another round of algorithm related selling as the US dollar began gathering late session strength against its fellows.

From CNN's site


Maturity Today Previous
Yield Yield

3 Month 0.13% 0.12%
2 Year 0.53% 0.50%
5 Year 1.49% 1.35%
10 Year 2.91% 2.76%
30 Year 4.37% 4.27%

Now was Friday's sell off some of the silver margin hangover tied in with the sugar margin increase?
I haven't seen a rational explanation for Friday. Bucky's movement wouldn't have indicated a strong move down.

Anyone else looking at the bond movement and thinking of dumping stocks?

[gunDriller]

This is the best explanation for the movement down late in the day.

I thought it was due to the bucky moving higher. I didn't look at the bonds.

From Trader Dan The Long Term Implications Of QE2 (http://jsmineset.com/2010/11/15/the-long-term-implications-of-qe2/)


After the close of pit session trading in New York, several of the commodity markets began to slip lower in their electronic trading session. The culprit was the following chart action as evidenced by the daily price action of the US long bond.

It smashed through the floor of support that had been established last week as if it was non-existent. The reason – bond traders began having second thoughts about the extent of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing purchases and the duration of that program on account of the strong wave of criticism that has been unleashed against the Fed for pursuing what more and more people are becoming convinced is wrongheaded and ultimately fraught with serious long term implications towards the health of the US Dollar. It seems as if a growing majority are more concerned with the inflation that this sort of money creation is going to create than with any potential effect it might have on the US employment situation.

That had traders and hedge funds pulling money out of various risk trades and left individual commodity markets exposed to another round of algorithm related selling as the US dollar began gathering late session strength against its fellows.

From CNN's site


Maturity Today Previous
Yield Yield

3 Month 0.13% 0.12%
2 Year 0.53% 0.50%
5 Year 1.49% 1.35%
10 Year 2.91% 2.76%
30 Year 4.37% 4.27%

Now was Friday's sell off some of the silver margin hangover tied in with the sugar margin increase?
I haven't seen a rational explanation for Friday. Bucky's movement wouldn't have indicated a strong move down.

Anyone else looking at the bond movement and thinking of dumping stocks?


i noticed the $ index peaked when gold and silver hit their daily & hourly bottoms.

on Friday there was also a ripple effect as the repercussions of Chinese raising their interest rates.

plus the market is so highly levered - look at the effect raising the margin rates early last week had. they raise rates a puny 30%, that's miniscule compared to how much silver & gold it controls in the options markets. but silver fell from $29 to $27.

i think when markets are so highly levered & highly manipulated and interconnected, with so many dishonest people in the banking system ... it's not surprising that it's volatile.


so i don't think there is a genuinely rational explanation.

i think it's a little bit like the martial arts, where the instructor will often not speak. and you learn (or not) by watching them.

i learn about the markets by watching them. personally i think they do have some logic, but they are also complex. so sometimes i can come close to picking a day's bottom, but not know all the reasons.

the US $ index was fighting back Friday and today. it's not surprising they can manipulate it - it's 50% based on the English Pound.

anyway, it hit up around 78.7, and that just happens to be when gold downticked to $1355.


i can't help but wonder to what extent the media stokes Portugal/ Ireland/Greece fears, to drive people back to the $, and US stocks and bonds. safe investments :sarc:

[mike88]

looking for stock entry in auy, exk, axu with usdx@ 80 and HUI @ 500 range. gold spot 1325, silver spot 23.00 area. Looking for" close enough "tuesday afternoon. Good time to add to the physical stack too. Good analysis on the bond market action. USDX primary trend is down, precious metal trend up. Nice to catch a dip for a swing trade tho. waiting on the side for now. Stock acct. overall still positive, took some red hits today[axu,enzr]. Hawkeye has some good tech charts on gim2,strawboss has a good thread on silver. I visit there when playing market, think they have some good information.

[mike88]

200 day moving average divided by spot price. = .99 buy physical. getting close to my entry point for auy, azk, silver still expensive relative to usd. holding on sidelines. 1325.00 or thereabouts for physical purchase. hui 500 or so stock entry area.

[osoab]

Silver was the horse of the day. Margin requirements were increased again for the 2nd time in a week too. Go SILVER.

Silver seemed to be the only metal that bounced nicely off its lows. Is this buying?

Miners are still getting pounded.
The resilience in MFN has been puzzling. MFN hasn't had the retracement seen in HL, EXK, SLW, or SVM especially the 1st two.

We have options expiration for equities on Friday.
Options expiration for December Gold and Silver are on the 23.

I would expect a little more volatility in the next week, especially if the bonds keep acting up and Euroland is the new redheaded step child of the week.


FWIW
I was listening to Bob Chapman on RBN this afternoon. I caller called in from S.C. I think and said he worked with a think tank based around Atlanta. Anyway, they had the official deficit pegged at 500+ trillion with another 600+ trillion in derivatives in off shore accounts. The guy sounded like he knew his stuff. He gave 9 months before the collapse.

[osoab]

Silver back at 26.09? What gives with the strength today and this evening?
Oil isn't seeing it. Miners were strong today too. Oversold?

[1970 silver art]

Looks like the DOG is getting stronger. Currently up 0.86 to $26.51. I usually do not see it up this much this early in the morning. Usually, if it is up big early on in Asia, then it usually gets beaten down by the time that I wake up the next morning. This might be a very interesting day.

[osoab]

Looks like the DOG is getting stronger. Currently up 0.86 to $26.51. I usually do not see it up this much this early in the morning. Usually, if it is up big early on in Asia, then it usually gets beaten down by the time that I wake up the next morning. This might be a very interesting day.


The bucky has had weakness overnight continuing into today.

Let's see how the day progresses.

We have that GM IPO that has to be spun well.

[mike88]

silver metal leader today. axu bouncing up well today also. looks like dollar is back in downtrend already.

[StackerKen]

Im just glad silver is already back above my last purchase price !! ;D

That didn't take long.

I have some FRN's saved for a dip....I think I may use some for new tires on my car though.

[1970 silver art]

Im just glad silver is already back above my last purchase price !! ;D

That didn't take long.

I have some FRN's saved for a dip....I think I may use some for new tires on my car though.







You simply cannot keep down a DOG like silver because it will just come back and bite JPMorgan in the ass. ;D Now go out and buy some more SAE's. :D ;D

[StackerKen]

Im just glad silver is already back above my last purchase price !! ;D

That didn't take long.

I have some FRN's saved for a dip....I think I may use some for new tires on my car though.







You simply cannot keep down a DOG like silver because it will just come back and bite JPMorgan in the ass. ;D Now go out and buy some more SAE's. :D ;D



Nawwww .....This time I'm waiting for a dip...Even if the dip is from 32 back down to 29 ;D

After buying at 27 i thought it would dip lower than 25 like it did. :-\

[osoab]

Im just glad silver is already back above my last purchase price !! ;D

That didn't take long.

I have some FRN's saved for a dip....I think I may use some for new tires on my car though.



On my last purchase a few weeks ago, I told my dealer "Watch it go to $22."

I'm glad it didn't.

Tires might be a wise choice, could be worth more than gold shortly. Keep the old ones too.

[osoab]

OpEx for the gold and silver tomorrow. Should be an interesting.

Today, was odd, felt like silver kept getting hit at and kept coming right back. I see gold finished strong too.
Metals were up with the dollar showing strength.
Is this Ireland/EU related, or is someone/some country, sticking it to the cartel?

Miners were mixed, but HL is looking good.

Finally got back to even on MFN. Whew!

I was looking at the 2 yr chart on HL and EXK. I am wondering if the same setup for the past two years will occur again.
That setup was a giant smackdown right after the the first of new year. A few others have posted about it and timing some metal purchases.

Will this year be different?

Here's some bond numbers from today. Using CNN again.
Looks like yields have dropped somewhat since the 15th.
This basically coincides with the monthly low in silver and gold.


Maturity LastYield PreviousYield
3 Month 0.12% 0.13%
2 Year 0.45% 0.50%
5 Year 1.43% 1.51%
10 Year 2.81% 2.88%
30 Year 4.21% 4.25%
Data as of 6:00pm ET

So is the Ben and Tim show throwing most of their ammo at bonds? The market hasn't been doing as well as I expected with all these POMO purchases going on.

[osoab]

i noticed the $ index peaked when gold and silver hit their daily & hourly bottoms.

on Friday there was also a ripple effect as the repercussions of Chinese raising their interest rates.

plus the market is so highly levered - look at the effect raising the margin rates early last week had. they raise rates a puny 30%, that's miniscule compared to how much silver & gold it controls in the options markets. but silver fell from $29 to $27.

i think when markets are so highly levered & highly manipulated and interconnected, with so many dishonest people in the banking system ... it's not surprising that it's volatile.


so i don't think there is a genuinely rational explanation.

i think it's a little bit like the martial arts, where the instructor will often not speak. and you learn (or not) by watching them.

i learn about the markets by watching them. personally i think they do have some logic, but they are also complex. so sometimes i can come close to picking a day's bottom, but not know all the reasons.

the US $ index was fighting back Friday and today. it's not surprising they can manipulate it - it's 50% based on the English Pound.

anyway, it hit up around 78.7, and that just happens to be when gold downticked to $1355.


i can't help but wonder to what extent the media stokes Portugal/ Ireland/Greece fears, to drive people back to the $, and US stocks and bonds. safe investments :sarc:

Minor point. The Euro is weighed heavily in the USDX.

From Kitco (http://www.kitco.com/glossary/usd.html).


The U.S. Dollar Index® is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies.
The six currencies and their trade weights are:

Euro 57.6 %
Japan/yen 13.6 %
UK/pound 11.9 %
Canada/dollar 9.1 %
Sweden/krona 4.2 %
Switzerland/franc 3.6 %

I think you are completely right about the manipulation of the bucky in relation to the Euro PIIGS. Then the play will turn around for 6 months or less and it will be beat the dollar down time.

Today bucks the whole idea of the gold/silver and dollar relationship. All were up nicely together.

[osoab]

looking for stock entry in auy, exk, axu with usdx@ 80 and HUI @ 500 range. gold spot 1325, silver spot 23.00 area. Looking for" close enough "tuesday afternoon. Good time to add to the physical stack too. Good analysis on the bond market action. USDX primary trend is down, precious metal trend up. Nice to catch a dip for a swing trade tho. waiting on the side for now. Stock acct. overall still positive, took some red hits today[axu,enzr]. Hawkeye has some good tech charts on gim2,strawboss has a good thread on silver. I visit there when playing market, think they have some good information.


You looking at the 1st/2nd week of December or after the 1st of the year to so some cherry picking?
HUI to 500 seems tough. Bounced hard off the 20dma @ 530ish. It bounced off the 50dma back @ 500.

[osoab]

Let this guy drop too far down.

So, nice day overall considering the dollar's strength. Nice to rebound a little after the Thurs/Fri smackdown.
Miners seemed to be pulled back to the green with the overall market. Hooray POMO days.

Anyone catch the Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/most-shorted-nyse-stocks-update) article on the 50 most shorted stocks on the NYSE? Yep Hecla is number 29.

Oil had a nice move. Is this Korea related?

URRE is @ 3.50. Should have picked it up @ 2.50. Damn this thing is on fire.

[mike88]

hui 500, may not see again. In pinetree capital , PNPFF , now for small gain since buy. Holding for now, see if it breaks out or gets stalled @ 3.00 level. Vanadium explorer , ENZR , up 10% today, finally seeing some action on that one. Been working lots lately, not much computer time. Going in on SXRZF.PK, Uranium One for a uranium stock. Funds avail in week or so, will post when bought. Trading acct doing well this past 2 months, thanks to all for analysis, and fundamentals posted here.

[osoab]

Good to see ya back mike.

So do we break 1400 Au today?

I would gander that bucky weakness is moving the metals overnight.

[mike88]

Morning all, looking like Pinetree was a good pick so far, strong move green today. Tracking auy and azk, charts kinda stinky on those two. Yukon miner axu tearing it up, hope someone is in that one. SXRZF, uranium 1 still on my watchlist, like the chart on that company. Gold 1400? Just a matter of time, the ratio is saying a silver for gold swap could be a move for profit long term. 30.00 silver looking possible soon to me, may be a race to those two numbers. Good trading to all.

[osoab]

Looky at the bond action (http://money.cnn.com/data/bonds/). I wonder if this is why Au and Ag were muted. Seems more odd since Pd and Pt did well today. With the bucky dropping, some serious pounding had to occur in Au and Ag. Grains and oil (http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/) increased today also. The move down in Au and Ag just seems backwards compared to everything else. Corn up 4%, Wheat up 7%, and Oil up almost 4%.



Maturity LastYield PreviousYield
3 Month 0.16% 0.16%
2 Year 0.52% 0.44%
5 Year 1.62% 1.46%
10 Year 2.96% 2.80%
30 Year 4.24% 4.10%
Data as of 5:00pm ET
Then 10 and 5 yr took off today.

Miners seemed to hit there highs early in the trading session then fell back all day. The exception would be the Pd and Pt miners. They performed well today.

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

[osoab]

Can we hit 1400? How about 29 in Ag?

Pd & Pt have been hog wild today. It's time the other two caught up.

[osoab]

Can we hit 1400? How about 29 in Ag?

Pd & Pt have been hog wild today. It's time the other two caught up.


Well Au and Ag hit a brick wall after I posted that yesterday. Today? Well, that is a more pleasant story.

Au finished at 1414.30 with help from a last minute push in the afterhours.
Ag is 29.40 come on 30.
Bucky slid
USD 79.13 -1.13 That's ugly.
Is this about the horrible NFP report?

The 10yr bond (http://money.cnn.com/data/bonds/) broke 3% today. That can't help the rolling over of debt.

U.S. Treasury Yields
Maturity LastYield PreviousYield
3 Month 0.13% 0.14%
2 Year 0.45% 0.53%
5 Year 1.62% 1.68%
10 Year 3.02% 3.00%
30 Year 4.31% 4.27%
Data as of 4:00pm ET


The miners were another bright spot.
Through the afterhours. HL up 7%, EXK up 6.5%, MFN up 3.5%. MFN was a surprise for me. Normally this thing lags big time. It was up 5%+ at the close and fell off during afterhours. All three outperformed SVM and SLW which I feel have led the pack for quite some time now.

I did pick up some MGH @ 1.67 about a week ago. Up about 28% now.
I was holding off to see 1.00, but I realized it wasn't going to make it. I'm glad I did.
KBX has been moving nicely too here the last week or so. It was a toss up between picking either of these for me.

So, do we have a good week for next week? 30 dollar silver would be nice to see.
We have claims of a market selloff due to the expiring tax breaks will occur by the 15th.

[1970 silver art]

Silver popped up to a high so far of $29.74 but it backed off.

[osoab]

Silver popped up to a high so far of $29.74 but it backed off.




I saw that too art. Its still early. Plenty of time to get going once the early markets start rolling.

I don't care what mamboni says. I'm posting rockets at 30. ;D The dog be damned.

[1970 silver art]

Silver popped up to a high so far of $29.74 but it backed off.




I saw that too art. Its still early. Plenty of time to get going once the early markets start rolling.

I don't care what mamboni says. I'm posting rockets at 30. ;D The dog be damned.


If you decide to post rockets at $30 silver, then you better make sure that you invest in a high quality dick shield. :D However, I think that you will be safe for now since silver backed off of the high. It would not surprise me to see it down big when I wake up Monday morning. That is certainly possible.

[osoab]

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2180/2518081037_d4ef397890.jpg?v=0

Woohoo! $30.32 for Ag and almost $1429 for Au. I did like the spike down so NYMEX silver didn't close above $30.

Stocks, well, they had a nice day off of their highs, but hell we got $30 silver.

SVM (http://silvercorpmetals.com/news/2010/index.php?&content_id=253) was down today. They are issuing about shares for $100 million.


Vancouver, British Columbia - December 6, 2010 - Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSX:SVM)(NYSE:SVM)("Silvercorp" or the "Corporation") announced today that it has entered into an agreement to sell, to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC and BMO Capital Markets (collectively the "Underwriters"), on a bought deal basis, 8,000,000 common shares at a price of US$12.70 per common share, for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately US$101.6 million (the "Offering"). The Corporation has granted the Underwriters the option to purchase up to an additional 1,200,000 common shares at the same price, exercisable in whole or in part, at any time up until 30 days following closing of the Offering. If the option is exercised in full the gross proceeds would be approximately US$116.8 million.


So this might be a nice time to pick it up.

I did notice a blip in GRMC, on of my lotto tickets. The thing dropped 20% for about 5 minutes. Weird, I didn't expect this with the metals running.

Mike, I saw ENZR the vanadium miner got smacked around a bit what gives there. Good time to pick any up? It has retraced off of its highs.

Needed to add that the resilience in the dollar strength today was another good thing. I didn't any reason for the dump in Pt and Pd. Granted Pd has been on fire lately.

[osoab]

Hmmm. Those damn bonds (http://money.cnn.com/data/bonds/) and profit taking.


U.S. Treasury Yields
Maturity LastYield PreviousYield
3 Month 0.14% 0.12% +14%
2 Year 0.52% 0.41% +21%
5 Year 1.75% 1.52% +14%
10 Year 3.16% 2.94% + 7%
30 Year 4.43% 4.25% + 4%
Data as of 5:00pm ET

I thought @ the 1st hard dip that we were seeing a replay of yesterday. It appeared to me to be close below $30 Ag on NYMEX.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif

Miners got hit with the meltdown. MFN was the exception only down .5%. I am still scratching my head on this one.
MFN seems to always lead the pack down.

FYI, Cyclist's (https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1161486&postcount=837) turn date is on the 9th. Either a drop down in metals or parabolic up.

Does anyone use sell stops? (granted I am probably talking to myself :D)
I currently don't because most of my equities are being held, but a day like today could really screw your account up for holding any long and medium term positions.

I saw ENRZ had a nice 12% pop today too.

One of my pennies GRMC had a nice 26% gain today. That is after the flash crash yesterday. Traded over 5 million shares yesterday on that flash. Well above any normal action.

[mike88]

holding ENZR, they still have the rights to 13% of worldwide in ground reserves at their property. Shorting to drive price down and rebuy? that is my feeling. It is a strategic steel component, hence my reason for a hold. the company news says they are a year or two away from actual production, may get bought out, or partner up with an outfit that can extract the metal...............opened a small position in AUNFF aurcana, a canadian junior silver miner, another sub 1.00 lotto ticket. Small uptick on the geothermal stock, their project in oregon is still on track, the nevada property still producing and selling electricity. HOLDING medium to long term. Pinetree capital pulled back slightly for me. Looking to add to that position depending on chart etc. long to medium hold there.

[mike88]

No sell stops for me at this time, i can afford to wait for worldwide currency dilution to allow the resources to become more valuable over time.

[mike88]

USDX one year chart......huge head and shoulders pattern? holding around the 80ish area tonite. Couple of paralell lines at the highs and lows put bucky around 62 long term.

[osoab]

holding ENZR, they still have the rights to 13% of worldwide in ground reserves at their property. Shorting to drive price down and rebuy? that is my feeling. It is a strategic steel component, hence my reason for a hold. the company news says they are a year or two away from actual production, may get bought out, or partner up with an outfit that can extract the metal...............opened a small position in AUNFF aurcana, a canadian junior silver miner, another sub 1.00 lotto ticket. Small uptick on the geothermal stock, their project in oregon is still on track, the nevada property still producing and selling electricity. HOLDING medium to long term. Pinetree capital pulled back slightly for me. Looking to add to that position depending on chart etc. long to medium hold there.


What was the geothermal mike? I don't remember.

Puplava (http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2010/12/04/03/robert-west-ross-beaty/alternative-energy-opportunity-and-solutions) had a segment on geothermal this weekend. I haven't listened to it yet.

Speaking of steel, my boss said our prices just went up 10% on Monday and expect at least another price increase before the new year.

[mike88]

NGLPF for the Nevada geothermal electricity producer.. long term hold for me.

[mike88]

Bullion order this am, mix of gold/silver, enough of a dip for me to buy. kept enough frn to repeat the order if more drop. If bullion price rises, will invest in lead/copper manufactured items and human usable calorie items.

[osoab]

Thanks for the geothermal mike.
Miners hit their highs early in the day. That seems to be the trend lately. This bounce @ 28 has been nice.

Was listening to Bob Chapman on Goldseek, I think, he was saying there is a rumor MFN is a takeover target.
This might explain the strength in the stock comparative to others during this last dip.

Bucky fell early and stayed down, bond yields rose early and fell back for losses (yield wise) at the end of the day.
Metals stayed up when the yields spiked, this was different from the norm.

Zero hedge has HL as the 31st most shorted stock on the NYSE today, a 1.3% decrease.

I was using this little comparative chart @ CNN (http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html). Cotton is the only commodity that has outpaced silver. Amazing.


Do we see a pullback or was that it? With JPM decreasing it's short interest in Ag, I don't see a pullback in silver.
This parabolic move in silver for the past 3 months has been stunning.
I just keep thinking that a major downleg has to occur.

[osoab]

Dumped MFN this morning after the gap down. >:( Still had a small profit when I sold.

They are issuing more shares for projects.
I am just tired of watching this thing languish.

Now I need a good Gold Junior.

[mike88]

profit is good! Switching to a different broker this week, less fees, and a local office. better charting tools available. have been following AZK for junior gold, they may have some rare earth minerals on their mining claims also. Quebec area. just sayin'. good trading to all.

[osoab]

What broker mike, if you don't mind me asking?

I am still looking for a cheap online broker to trade the TSX. There are a bunch more miners on the Canadian exchanges.

I am currently using Zecco, but they don't allow "foreign ordinaries". This rules out a bunch of the pink sheets too.

[1970 silver art]

What broker mike, if you don't mind me asking?

I am still looking for a cheap online broker to trade the TSX. There are a bunch more miners on the Canadian exchanges.

I am currently using Zecco, but they don't allow "foreign ordinaries". This rules out a bunch of the pink sheets too.




I think that Scottrade is a good online broker. I think that comissions are still $7 but you might want to check on that.

[mike88]

Scottrade is the new one. A lot of the TSX stocks trade on the otc/pinks , just takes a bit of research to get the symbols. Contacting the canadian companies thru their investor relations is a good start. Scottrade funding can be direct bank acct linked[in only], check mailed or dropped off at local office, or brokerage transfer to their office. Took about 1/2 hour for the forms, the lead broker is going to phone me when the xfer is complete. Withdraw of funds is by check, either mail or pickup @ branch office for settled trades. Stocks under 1.00/share have 1/2% extra commish on the principal amount in addition to the 7.00 broker commish. hope this helps..........

[osoab]

Thanks mike.

Zecco won't let you trade pink sheets of any foreign company.

A couple of examples of what I am talking about are GWMGF (Great Western Minerals) & ARAFF (Arafura Resources).
Both have doubled since June. Couldn't trade either. I even contacted Zecco, but no luck there.

Does Scottrade allow you to trade on the TSX or is it just limited to US exchanges? I have normally come up empty searching online brokers for what exchanges you could trade on. The exception would be IB, but I don't have 10-20 grand to pony up to open an account. I might in a year or two, but not today.

Edit to add.

I went with Zecco for two reasons. 4.50 a trade and a buddy of mine already had an account with them and he got 100 bucks for me signing up.

[osoab]

See Saw day to day. I would guess bonds were the issue this afternoon along with the dollar's rise. Some of the late day downtrend might have coincided with the Fed news release today. What time did Fed minutes come out?




U.S. Treasury Yields
Maturity LastYield PreviousYield
3 Month 0.14% 0.12%
2 Year 0.62% 0.55%
5 Year 2.04% 1.89%
10 Year 3.45% 3.28%
30 Year 4.56% 4.40%
Data as of 4:00pm ET


The 10yr has a bit to get back to the June levels of almost 4%.

[mike88]

Broker assisted on the canuckistan stocks, the rate for this type trade is on their information page about commissions and fees.

[Quixote2]

I trade some Tx stocks via pink sheet with Fidelity at $7.95 a trade.

[osoab]

Bonds and bucky. I guess we should all look at this as buying opportunities.


U.S. Treasury Yields
Maturity LastYield PreviousYield
3 Month 0.14% 0.14%
2 Year 0.63% 0.63%
5 Year 2.10% 2.04%
10 Year 3.52% 3.45%
30 Year 4.60% 4.56%
Data as of 5:00pm E

Yield on the 10yr has fell back at the end of the day. I think it hit near 3.56%

Oh, the debt payments.

[mike88]

Opened position in AZK, canadian gold miner. holding pinetree capital, NGLPF, enzr auracana silver. broker transfer should be done tue/wde this coming week. The interactive charting tools are just what i wanted with the Scottrade site. Streaming quotes come standard, another nice feature. have a good weekend all.

[osoab]

I would like to thank you guys for the broker advise. Should have probably asked a lot sooner.

Anyway. Bond yields were up slightly. Bucky rose early and has just crashed here in the last hour or two.

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif

I am looking for a mild flogging for the week. Light trading means for oomph for the HFT's.

Still holding HL, EXK.
Picked up some KBX, just a gamble. Very small postion.

Sitting tight with about 1/4 cash. Looking for a drop and using the time to do some research.

[mike88]

Holding here as well, make money on the buy side when you can enter low.................

[mike88]

all portfolio green today except enzr. big move in spot price all precious. ;D

[osoab]

We had been a ho hum method the last week or so, there was really no point in posting. Seemed if you bought the dips in the morning and sold late in the day one would have made some dough.

So what gives today?

Metals up BIG
Stocks up and the miners looked very nice.
Bucky up
Oil up
Bond yields up on the same day that a flailing 5yr offering occurred.

Did the HFT's get stuck in a feed back loop?

[osoab]

I would guess that this is the reason that rare earth metal miners jumped yesterday. Doesn't explain the dip in MCP, though.

China's rare earths export cut raises trade concerns (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BR0KX20101229?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews)



China has raised fresh international trade concerns after slashing export quotas on rare earths minerals, risking action from the United States at the World Trade Organization.

China, which produces about 97 percent of the global supply of rare earth minerals, cut its export quotas by 35 percent for the first half of 2011 versus a year ago, saying it wanted to preserve ample reserves, but warned against basing its total 2011 export quota on the first half figures.
The U.S. Trade Representative's office was "very concerned" about China's export restraints on rare earths and had raised its concerns with China, a spokeswoman said on Tuesday.

A European Commission spokesman said the European Union "notes the latest quota figures and expects China to respect its recent assurance of a guarantee of rare earth supplies to Europe."

U.S. makers of high-tech products such as Apple Inc's iPads, along with Japanese companies have been scrambling to secure reliable supplies of the minerals outside of China as Beijing steadily reduces export allocations.

Japan's Sony Corp said China's move to cut export quotas was a hindrance to free trade and that it would work to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies.

"At this point in time there is no direct impact on our company. But further restrictions could lead to a shortage of supply or rise in costs for related parts and materials," Sony said in an email statement in response to questions from Reuters. "We will watch the situation carefully."

Sony, maker of Bravia brand flat TVs, Vaio PCs and the PlayStation 3 videogame console, will look for ways to cut its use of rare earths, including developing alternative materials, Sony spokeswoman Ayano Iguchi said.

A BOON TO SOME

China's move, however, came as a shot in the arm for some companies.

Lynas Corp, which owns the world's richest known non-Chinese deposit of rare earths, jumped over 10 percent even though it will be at least a year before it is capable of mining any material from a new lode in Australia.

Other rare earths companies, including China Rare Earth Holding Ltd, Arafura Resources, Alkane Resources and Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd also gained between 8 percent 10 percent.

"Export quotas continue to be a tool for the Chinese government to limit the export of China's strategic resource,"

Lynas Executive Chairman Nick Curtis said in a statement.

"The growth in the Chinese domestic market coupled with a decrease in production of rare earths in China is a likely cause for the tightening of export regulations," said Curtis, whose company is aiming to start production in about a year and has already forged supply contracts with Japanese traders.

A little bit more at the link.

Thinking of picking up a penny stock AREM.

[mike88]

AREM on watchlist, thank you. holding Pinetree Capital, kind of a "mutual fund" in this sector. Bought more Auracana yesterday, Great Panther on watchlist.

[mike88]

Core Bullion holdings[the reason to profit in stock speculation] up today.

[osoab]

AREM on watchlist, thank you. holding Pinetree Capital, kind of a "mutual fund" in this sector. Bought more Auracana yesterday, Great Panther on watchlist.


AREM gapped up 30% at the open. I haven't gotten an order filled yet. I am leary with yesterday and todays gains.

[mike88]

good reason for caution. ! year target 1.05 on yahoo site. 30% is a huge move in a day. Wait for pullback? jump in now? Quality problems we have. The pennies are high risk high reward. Lotta pumping and dumping in them also..................

[osoab]

good reason for caution. ! year target 1.05 on yahoo site. 30% is a huge move in a day. Wait for pullback? jump in now? Quality problems we have. The pennies are high risk high reward. Lotta pumping and dumping in them also..................


I lied I guess. I picked up 500 shares @ .31. I had tried at .26 at the open and never got filled. I am just glad that my order @ .34 didn't get filled before I modified to the .31 price.

Just a small position for now. If the stock drops, I will buy more on the way down.
Today's early 30% pop was on the heals of yesterday's 18% pop.

[mike88]

hope you profit on this one. never know, could keep running if enough investors see the potential in the company.

[osoab]

hope you profit on this one. never know, could keep running if enough investors see the potential in the company.


Look at the last 3 day tear REE has been on.

AREM is an iffy trade, but I don't wont to risk money on the overpriced REE.

[osoab]

Look @ SHZ its up damn near a triple since the first of December.

[osoab]

HL announced yesterday they are doing a forced conversion of their preferred into common shares.

Stock is down about 7% this morning. Dump or ride this out? I dumped MFN and they didn't move down like I expected.

Hecla Announces Terms for Mandatory Conversion of Preferred Stock (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1511258&highlight=)

[osoab]

HL announced yesterday they are doing a forced conversion of their preferred into common shares.

Stock is down about 7% this morning. Dump or ride this out? I dumped MFN and they didn't move down like I expected.

Hecla Announces Terms for Mandatory Conversion of Preferred Stock (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1511258&highlight=)


HL back to even.

[osoab]

Got an order filled on URZ this morning @ 3.65. Low of the morning. ;D

Granted getting URRE @ .50 in June would have been a much better play.

[osoab]

AREM up 30% currently. ;D

[osoab]

So do we close the year above 30 Ag and 1400 Au? Do we get a bloodbath tomorrow?

[mike88]

30/1400 will hold i think. it is not like the central banks have come to their senses and instituted sound currency and bond practices.

[gunDriller]

So do we close the year above 30 Ag and 1400 Au? Do we get a bloodbath tomorrow?


Dec. 29 was options expiry for a lot of metals. if we were going to have volatility on the downside i think it would have happened then.

i think most of the profit-taking that has occurred for the year will occur.

in other words

http://ocw.hcmuaf.edu.vn/NR/rdonlyres/4D9CB8F4-AA0E-4FCD-92C2-275836C4862C/0/chp_rocket.jpg

[osoab]

Overall, today's action is odd.

Bucky down, Bond yields up slightly, metals down, oil down harder, cotton was down earlier I think it has rebounded somewhat.

Where is the money flowing too? Everyone going to cash for the weekend?

[osoab]

AREM finished up 20% today. I was up 16%. Not too shabby.

SHZ is another REE miner. They were up damn near 70% yesterday and fell back 13% or so today. This guy has some swings, trading money could be made in this one. It was all but a double in 2 days.

I think 30 Ag holds. Gold will finish under 1400. That is too much of a headline to end the year with.

Ended up even on URZ for the day. Stock was down 3.5% to finish. I didn't catch the low.

[osoab]

Glad I don't know how to take a short position in the metals.
I was way off on the end of year finish on Au and Ag. For some reason, this doesn't disappoint me. ;D

Last few trades of the year were up and down.

AREM finished flat. Lost yesterday's gain.

URZ ended up almost 9%

MGH up 63%

KBX up 4%

I did find a nice stock site. http://www.finviz.com/
I really like this view. http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx.
I don't know if the site has the usual 20 minute delay.

[osoab]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/1/1_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html

Very bullish interviews from Bill Haynes of CMI Gold and Silver and Trader Dan Norcini.

Neither of them are looking for a pullback anytime soon. :o

[Gold Miner]

KBX up 4%

Kimber has been a real dog in my portfolio.

[Libertarian_Guard]

http://i56.tinypic.com/29f7ajl.jpg

$31 Ag, fired up for take off..........

[osoab]

KBX up 4%

Kimber has been a real dog in my portfolio.


I had already dumped it once it once for a 55% gain. The think seems to languish, that's why I didn't hold on to it.

I bit again, after it had a slight move up thinking there was room to run, no running has occurred though.

[osoab]

2011 is the Year of the Precious Metals Junior Miners (http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/2011-is-the-year-of-the-precious-metals-junior-miners-10123101/)

Anyone got a clue on the 2pm dump on silver, gold, and oil? Oil was the drilling thing, but the for other two I couldn't find a reason.

AREM is back to flat. Seems odd, MCP and REE had good days today.

Anyone got any penny copper miner plays? Copper is now just above it's 08 highs.


http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-copper-5y-Large.gif

[osoab]

http://i56.tinypic.com/29f7ajl.jpg

$31 Ag, fired up for take off..........


I think we need to stick to vertical takeoffs. ;D

[osoab]

Nice come back off of the lows today. The miners didn't get as smacked around either.
Bonds yields moved quite a bit up today. 2yr yield was up over 20% on the day.

Anyone believe that ADP employment number? :ROFL:

[RUSH.IS.A.BAND]

I've been watching AREM awhile now. Not sure though, vol. and cap. are pretty low. What do you all think of SRFDF (Starfield Resources) ? They seem to pretty solid, havent moved in awhile, and could erupt any time. Plus, I like that fact that their land is 100 percent owned.

[osoab]

I've been watching AREM awhile now. Not sure though, vol. and cap. are pretty low. What do you all think of SRFDF (Starfield Resources) ? They seem to pretty solid, havent moved in awhile, and could erupt any time. Plus, I like that fact that their land is 100 percent owned.


Sorry I hadn't posted on this R.i.a.b. I've been a little under the weather for the last few days.

I see Starfield was down 17% today.

AREM got some green to finish up 11% up. This was a nice change from the past week or so downward trend.
Some nice money could have been made today if you would have caught today's lows. I thought of doubling down on my position, but I wasn't around a computer all day.

Starfield seems to be on a finishing downtrend since the beginning in 09. I would have hated to bought at the top @ 1.60ish in 07. That is a haircut. I still need to do some more research before I can make a final judgment.

[osoab]

Starting to feel a little better. Maybe I should lay off the alcohol..... Not ;D

So have we made a higher low now in the metals?
Does anyone think that we will see the same ramp in Ag into the March expiration as we saw for the December expiration?
50 Ag by March?

Getting close to even on TGB again. They had some nice drill results on a Niobium deposit that came out on Monday.
Stock was up about 14% on that news on Tuesday. Should have bought more at sub $5, but I was looking for greener pastures. Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda. :-\

Probably should have dumped HL and EXK near the top in the first week of this year. It was about a 25% haircut in a few days for those two. They are rebounding now with the improved Ag price.

[osoab]

So what the hell was the issue today?!?!

Bucky down hard. Oil down. Au down. Copper down. Bond yields fell. 30 yr auction wasn't the greatest. Pd and Pt were relatively calm. Ag slaughtered by comparison. Grains mixed.

So what gives? What was the trigger for the dump in Ag? Due to no POMO today, a little more ammunition to play with?

AREM sitting at small loss. TGB didn't get into the late day blood bath like HL and EXK.

Starfield had a nice up 40% day. Fairly good volume too. R.i.a.b. should be smiling.

[osoab]

So what the hell was the issue today?!?!

Bucky down hard. Oil down. Au down. Copper down. Bond yields fell. 30 yr auction wasn't the greatest. Pd and Pt were relatively calm. Ag slaughtered by comparison. Grains mixed.

So what gives? What was the trigger for the dump in Ag? Due to no POMO today, a little more ammunition to play with?


Would this have something to do with Ag and Au dump?

CFTC advances position plan, reignites debate (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70B6ZP20110113)


The proposal passed 4-1 and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will now open up the proposal for public comment, reigniting a long-simmering debate about the role banks and funds play in energy, metals and agricultural markets as prices again soar to lofty heights.

The plan would attempt to curb positions investors can hold in commodity markets, with the aim of preventing large players from controlling the market. Consumers and some lawmakers say it would prevent a run-up in prices, which hit record highs in 2008 in oil and many food staples. Prices are rising once again, which could lead to riots and food shortages in developing nations.

But the future of the plan was thrown into question after Democratic Commissioner Michael Dunn, whose support is vital for the plan to be finalized, said he wasn't convinced the plan was needed.

"With such a lack of concrete evidence, my fear is that, at best, position limits are a cure for a disease that does not exist or at worst, a placebo for one that does," Dunn said.

Just part of the article.

[Libertarian_Guard]

So what the hell was the issue today?!?!

Bucky down hard. Oil down. Au down. Copper down. Bond yields fell. 30 yr auction wasn't the greatest. Pd and Pt were relatively calm. Ag slaughtered by comparison. Grains mixed.

So what gives? What was the trigger for the dump in Ag? Due to no POMO today, a little more ammunition to play with?

AREM sitting at small loss. TGB didn't get into the late day blood bath like HL and EXK.




With the USD down big the last two days, it does not make a lick of sense to me. CDE got pounded hard after a big run-up. Anyhow, I'm holding.

[osoab]

With the USD down big the last two days, it does not make a lick of sense to me. CDE got pounded hard after a big run-up. Anyhow, I'm holding.


I'm thinking the lack of a POMO day helped a lot. The carnage occurred during NY time. We had the same dip-ounce today as occurred yesterday with the LBMA sets.

I am thinking of taking a postion in ZSL (silver short etf) with the rest of my ammo as a hedge. The miners really tanked late in the day.

I am glad you posted LG, I keep thinking I may be talking to myself. :D

[Libertarian_Guard]

With the USD down big the last two days, it does not make a lick of sense to me. CDE got pounded hard after a big run-up. Anyhow, I'm holding.


I'm thinking the lack of a POMO day helped a lot. The carnage occurred during NY time. We had the same dip-ounce today as occurred yesterday with the LBMA sets.

I am thinking of taking a postion in ZSL (silver short etf) with the rest of my ammo as a hedge. The miners really tanked late in the day.

I am glad you posted LG, I keep thinking I may be talking to myself. :D


Or for less leverage, GLL ultra short gold.