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View Full Version : Something’s Wrong in the Silver Pit: But It’s Much Bigger than J.P. Morgan



Serpo
10th December 2010, 02:30 PM
As good as all this sounds can someone help explain to me what this article is trying to explain in simple terms as I am but a simple person.

There are charts at the link also..

When researching the precious metals, often times things are seldom as they appear on the surface. GATA Secretary and Treasurer – Chris Powell – has said that the true picture of a nations’ gold holdings are, “more closely guarded than their nuclear secrets”.



This has been more-or-less proven true based on the Federal Reserve’s reaction to GATA’s 2009 FOIA request for information concerning GOLD SWAPS. The Fed is ON RECORD admitting they’ve done gold swaps – which, by definition, necessarily utilize sovereign American gold stocks.



To date, the Federal Reserve has stonewalled GATA’s FOIA request citing their ‘privileged status’ and reluctance to divulge ‘trade secrets’.



GATA has maintained that the Federal Reserve / U.S. Treasury in conjunction with other Central Banks have for years been suppressing the price of gold [and silver too] – in efforts to mitigate and to cover up their own debasement of fiat currencies.



Historically, when Central Banks or governments print more and more fiat money, precious metals prices RISE. The money printing is not only inflationary but when done to excess it can undermine confidence in faith based fiat currency regimes. Precious metal has no counterparty risk and cannot be printed – which is why it “is” and always will be money. Remember folks, gold is money, as evidenced by EVERY Central Bank in the world listing gold bullion on their balance sheet as an official reserve asset.



GATA has identified and documented that Central Banks utilize precious metals derivatives, and in particular swaps, as a primary method by with Central Banks rig metal prices.



In the presence of EXTREME money printing, it’s understandable why Central Banks and governments would want to suppress the price of gold [and silver] and be less than transparent about their nefarious activity in this regard. Knowledge and detail regarding these activities could undermine a nations’ currency, their credit rating and thus their ability to service their sovereign debt.



The following data set is taken from the June, 2010 Bank for International Settlements [BIS], Semiannual OTC Derivatives Report and it is compared to other data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s, June, 2010 Quarterly Report on Bank Derivatives Activities.



Relative comparison along with analysis within the data sets sheds new light on the scope of the precious metals price management scheme. Additional analysis is presented regarding the number and identities of other possible [or likely] players. It also illustrates how paper derivatives have become tools to determine/rig price instead of the intended and stated purpose of price discovery of the underlying physical asset.



source: http://www.bis.org/statistics/otcder/dt21c22a.pdf



Question: There are a total of 417 Billion notional in Gold derivatives outstanding – AND THE GOLD / SILVER Price RATIO is 49:1 – then WHY are outstanding notional silver derivatives 127 Billion???? These BIS numbers suggest that the proper gold / silver ratio should be roughly 3.3:1 or silver priced TODAY at 1,400 / 3.3 = 424.00 per ounce.



Now, let’s take a peek at what the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency tells us about “other precious metals” held by U.S. Commercial Banks:







OCC data tells us that J.P. Morgan and HSBC constitute 13.5 billion worth of the BIS’s reported total of 127 billion of derivatives in “other precious metals”. That’s about ONE TENTH of the total. WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER 90 % ??????



Note: Even if we compare the OCC totals for silver versus gold derivatives from the table above – OCC data is supportive of a “proper” gold / silver ratio of 131.6 / 13.6 = 9.7 This implies a silver price of 1,400 / 9.7 = 144.00 per ounce of silver.



Coincidentally, or perhaps not, COMEX open interest in gold futures is roughly 600K contracts @ 100 oz. per contract that is roughly 60 million oz of gold open interest. COMEX open interest in silver futures happens to be about 135k contracts @ 5,000 oz per contract which is roughly 650 million oz of silver open interest [note that silver open interest is not quite 11 times the open interest of gold]. So, again I ask, why is the gold / silver ratio at 48: 1?????



***For those who are not aware, silver naturally occurs in the earth’s crust approximately 7 – 10 times more frequently than gold.



Now, let’s take a look at ALL Derivatives of U.S. Commercial Banks as reported by the OCC:







Take note and remember that the breakout provided – above - by the OCC was for Commercial Banks ONLY.



Finally, let’s now look at the ONLY OCC data table depicting ALL Derivatives held by U.S. Bank Holding Companies:






Conclusions:



* The BIS tells us that total global outstanding “other precious metals” derivatives are 127 billion.
* General market wisdom [gleaned from OCC Commercial Bank data] suggest that J.P. Morgan and HSBC are the two dominant players in silver [other precious metals]
* Yet, the U.S. OCC tells us that J.P. Morgan and HSBC combined – make up 13.577 billion of the 127 billion BIS total [roughly 10 %].
* The U.S. OCC tells us that Morgan Stanley and B of A and Goldman have an additional combined 70 TRILLION in derivatives – at the Bank Holding Company level – but they give us NO HINT as to what portion of these totals consist of precious metals activity. We are left to assume that this is because the OCC is only mandated to regulate Commercial Banks – while Bank Holding Companies fall under the purview of the Federal Reserve.
* Unless J.P. Morgan and HSBC are LYING to regulators as to the extent of their silver market activity – there are other MASSIVE players in the silver price suppression game. Who ever these ‘players’ are – metaphorically, they MUST BE BLEEDING FROM EVERY ORIFICE with silver’s parabolic run up in price over the past few months.
* Most likely among American entities are MORGAN STANLEY, B of A and Goldman Sachs – since together they are operating a 70 Trillion derivative “BLACK BOX” about which we know LITTLE to NOTHING as it pertains to precious metals.
* Any way you slice it – precious metals data reporting on the part of American regulators is atrocious. Simple MATHEMATICS tells us a gold / silver ratio at 48:1 is EXTREMELY contrived and REEKS of manipulation on the part of the Federal Reserve and the Banks they are charged with regulating.

Got any physical Gold and/or Silver yet?

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1292004828.php

Rob Kirby

Silver Shield
10th December 2010, 02:37 PM
I wait and whistle...

mamboni
10th December 2010, 02:59 PM
As good as all this sounds can someone help explain to me what this article is trying to explain in simple terms as I am but a simple person.

.....




OK, here’s the skinny version for us regular folk:

1. Central banks have been lending out physical gold bullion in exchange for paper IOUs for decades. This physical gold has been sold into the market by the large banks to suppress the gold price, often on cue from the FED.
2. The central banks hold far less physical gold bullion than they claim to hold.
3. Paper gold certificates are not clearly distinguishable from physical gold bullion listed in the holdings of the various holding companies, trusts and banks. Paper gold has created the illusion of plentiful gold where no gold exists (the situation is far more acute in silver).

Bottom line: No bank, government or entity can put a true market price on an ounce of physical gold or silver. Given the level of paper derivative dilution/overissuance, fraud and general instability of the financial system, it is axiomatic that physical gold and silver are vastly underpriced (in dollars).

I hope that helps.

Ponce
10th December 2010, 03:05 PM
mamboni?........you got it........they are only trying to cover their acces......and that's why in the future what we have will become more valuable.

Spectrism
10th December 2010, 03:23 PM
As good as all this sounds can someone help explain to me what this article is trying to explain in simple terms as I am but a simple person.

.....




OK, here’s the skinny version for us regular folk:

1. Central banks have been lending out physical gold bullion in exchange for paper IOUs for decades. This physical gold has been sold into the market by the large banks to suppress the gold price, often on cue from the FED.
2. The central banks hold far less physical gold bullion than they claim to hold.
3. Paper gold certificates are not clearly distinguishable from physical gold bullion listed in the holdings of the various holding companies, trusts and banks. Paper gold has created the illusion of plentiful gold where no gold exists (the situation is far more acute in silver).

Bottom line: No bank, government or entity can put a true market price on an ounce of physical gold or silver. Given the level of paper derivative dilution/overissuance, fraud and general instability of the financial system, it is axiomatic that physical gold and silver are vastly underpriced (in dollars).

I hope that helps.



Can you simplify it a little more? Is it like this-

Mommie says to little Johnnie: "Now go to bed Johnnie. It may be dark in your room and there may be strange monster noises in your closet, but don't worry.... there is no boogeyman in there. I am not sure what will come out and it could be an axe murderer, a priest who likes little boys, a flesh-eating zombie or just your standard run-of-the-mill hungry giant anaconda..... but you can rest assured there is no boogeyman in your closet. I know because he went under your bed. So just go to your nice flimsy little bed in the dark far down the lonely abandoned wing of the house where we won't even hear you. Nite- nite! Sleep tite!"

Plastic
10th December 2010, 03:32 PM
mamboni?........you got it........they are only trying to cover their acces......and that's why in the future what we have will become more valuable.



I am beginning to think that it will be dangerous to even have a couple merc dimes or a silver quarter in our pockets soon.

Ponce
10th December 2010, 03:39 PM
Danm you Spect........I won't be able to sleep tonight......probably a mouse under my bed now that my kitty cat is not around to protect me :boohoo

chad
10th December 2010, 04:10 PM
Danm you Spect........I won't be able to sleep tonight......probably a mouse under my bed now that my kitty cat is not around to protect me :boohoo


ponce, go get a new cat. the pound has them. do a good deed, it will be good for you and the cat.

Ponce
10th December 2010, 04:27 PM
Chad? that's where I got her, when I went there she curled all four leggs around my hand and would not let go, I then told here "OK I'll take you home" and she let go right away........I went there looking for my yellow cat that was gone, the yellow cat ended up in San Diego because there was a mobile home in the area that left their door open and Kat got inside......lucky for him it was wearing a collar with my name and phone number....they drove all the way back to Anaheim to bring him back to me and I gave them $200.00, even if they didn't want it.

The reason that I don't want another cat is......what would happen if I die before he or she does?, I would have no one to take over.........at 70 years old (but healthy) I like to think ahead.

Quixote2
10th December 2010, 04:31 PM
My suspicion,

1) A person deposits gold or silver in a bank vault (assuming it is allocated),

2) The bank sells the gold or silver and places an IOU xxx ounces of gold or silver in the depositors account,

3) The bank charges the depositor storage fees as the IOU is as good as gold,

4) The value/price of gold or silver goes up,

5) The depositor comes in and requests withdrawal of the gold or silver,

6) The bank would have to go into the market and attempt to buy physical to meet the terms of the deposit,

7) The bank offers fiat instead of physical,

8) The bank has been carrying the IOU at market value (remember it is as good as gold),

9) If the depositor takes either physical or fiat, the bank shows a real withdrawal of value (gold, silver, or fiat) in excess of the amount they received from the original sale.

If the market price increase of gold or silver has increased more than the interest the bank received from the metal sales, the bank has taken a real loss. If you do not withdraw the metal or fiat, the bank does not have to book the loss.

Probably wrong, but my opinion of what happens if you sell something that is not yours to begin with.

Libertytree
10th December 2010, 04:40 PM
My suspicion,

1) A person deposits gold or silver in a bank vault (assuming it is allocated),

2) The bank sells the gold or silver and places an IOU xxx ounces of gold or silver in the depositors account,

3) The bank charges the depositor storage fees as the IOU is as good as gold,

4) The value/price of gold or silver goes up,

5) The depositor comes in and requests withdrawal of the gold or silver,

6) The bank would have to go into the market and attempt to buy physical to meet the terms of the deposit,

7) The bank offers fiat instead of physical,

8) The bank has been carrying the IOU at market value (remember it is as good as gold),

9) If the depositor takes either physical or fiat, the bank shows a real withdrawal of value (gold, silver, or fiat) in excess of the amount they received from the original sale.

If the market price increase of gold or silver has increased more than the interest the bank received from the metal sales, the bank has taken a real loss. If you do not withdraw the metal or fiat, the bank does not have to book the loss.

Probably wrong, but my opinion of what happens if you sell something that is not yours to begin with.


Except in the real world Johnny No Thumbs pays you a visit when your books don't jibe.

Horn
10th December 2010, 05:17 PM
it is axiomatic that physical gold and silver are vastly underpriced (in dollars).


1.
ax·i·o·mat·ic/ˌaksēəˈmatik/Adjective
1. Self-evident or unquestionable.
2. Relating to or containing axioms. More »
Dictionary.com - Answers.com - Merriam-Webster - The Free Dictionary



There is no definition for underpriced.

gunDriller
11th December 2010, 06:36 AM
mamboni?........you got it........they are only trying to cover their acces......and that's why in the future what we have will become more valuable.



I am beginning to think that it will be dangerous to even have a couple merc dimes or a silver quarter in our pockets soon.


it seems very distorted. a mature pine tree will fetch about 30 cents a board (cubic) foot ... i think. so a 100 foot tree will be worth maybe $100. so on an acre of forest, you might have 100 "adult" trees - worth about $10,000.

it's just wierd to think that 1 ounce of gold will soon be worth as much as 1 acre of mature pine trees.

but i guess "they're still making" pine trees, but not gold, or silver.

if anybody knows some good numbers per board-foot for pine & Doug. fir, i'd love to hear.

solid
11th December 2010, 06:53 AM
The reason that I don't want another cat is......what would happen if I die before he or she does?, I would have no one to take over.........at 70 years old (but healthy) I like to think ahead.


You are only 70, Ponce? Go get another cat. You've got 20 years left, you'll probably go through several cats in that time. Sit back, watch the collapse with the company of a nice cat.

Spectrism
11th December 2010, 07:59 AM
Hey Ponce- the animals are here to be our companions and charge. It is nice that you think about their well-being, but you should have some friend as a watch to check in on you periodically.

Get another cat if that is what you like. It may teach you that its Creator is real and it did not evolve from primordial swamp scum. Grow some indoor plants and marvel at the intricacies of life.

Time is very short for ALL of us. I think it is very likely that this world will end within your lifetime.

bellevuebully
11th December 2010, 10:03 AM
it is axiomatic that physical gold and silver are vastly underpriced (in dollars).

I hope that helps.



You are right on the money Mamboni. I am often asked what silver and gold should be worth.. I say don't pick a price point.....watch for changing fundamentals and change with them. Who can know what the real value is? :dunno

Spectrism
11th December 2010, 10:29 AM
it is axiomatic that physical gold and silver are vastly underpriced (in dollars).

I hope that helps.



You are right on the money Mamboni. I am often asked what silver and gold should be worth.. I say don't pick a price point.....watch for changing fundamentals and change with them. Who can know what the real value is? :dunno


The problem with fundamentals is we don't have trustworthy information. We don't know how much stock there is. If supplies are really depleted and the paper trades are creating imaginary stocks, then when the reality of the true fundamentals breaks, the price will spike faster than anyone can jump on board.

I guess our knowledge of the fundamentals can only lead us to worse conditions than we currently suspect.

Silver coins and bars jingle nicer than paper dollars.