Time to buy MORE or HOLD?

[Spectrism]

I stopped by an antique store today that I had not been in for quite a long time. Loaded with sterling silver stuff... a multiple vendor operation.

Also there were a few coin dealers there. Overall, I expect that they would know what is going on very well.

Peace dollars in real good condition tagged for $25 each... a couple dozen of them.


Anyone think the market will pull back? Is this a deal to snap up or is it a time to wait?

[ximmy]

you bought those dollars right??? !!!!!

[Spectrism]

you bought those dollars right??? !!!!!


I was just on a scouting trip and had a funny feeling in my gut about them when I walked out. Do I get one of these:

http://th06.deviantart.net/fs70/150/f/2010/166/a/0/Gibbs_head_slap_by_eib29.jpg

Just to add more info- I have already used most of my discretionary money for metals. I have been thinking about a pump 12 gauge shotgun and a couple handguns. If I only had a couple $$$million laying around it would seem to be so easy... but then the questions would be a farm in Virginia or in New Hampshire? - among others.

[ximmy]

you bought those dollars right??? !!!!!


I was just on a scouting trip and had a funny feeling in my gut about them when I walked out. Do I get one of these:

http://th06.deviantart.net/fs70/150/f/2010/166/a/0/Gibbs_head_slap_by_eib29.jpg


damn it... :whip

[MNeagle]

I was just on a scouting trip and had a funny feeling in my gut about them when I walked out.



Next time, listen to that "Funny feeling" and walk back in & buy.

[Spectrism]

you bought those dollars right??? !!!!!


I was just on a scouting trip and had a funny feeling in my gut about them when I walked out. Do I get one of these:

http://th06.deviantart.net/fs70/150/f/2010/166/a/0/Gibbs_head_slap_by_eib29.jpg


damn it... :whip



Nice!

Ooooo behive!


http://www.spaongreenstreet.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Austin_Danger_Powers_Mike_Myers.jpg

[Spectrism]

I was just on a scouting trip and had a funny feeling in my gut about them when I walked out.



Next time, listen to that "Funny feeling" and walk back in & buy.


You mean like first thing tomorrow morning?

[MNeagle]

Yup.

That 'funny feeling' is called intuition.

Men usually call it their 'gut feeling'.

[V10Silver]

Where are they if you don't want em I'll buy them all sight unseen

[Book]

Gotta remember that some people here already own it and "hope" it continues to go up. We already witnessed a huge run up this year. At some point the bubble bursts...that's when you buy. After the crash.

[Rebel Yarr]

As far as physical goes - I'm just sitting - not that I think it is dipping anytime soon in any significant way... I just feel I have enough for a SHTF scenerio/ or the parabolic "everyone is out of physical" run.

But for paper I am expecting a final pullback below 30 - shooting for the 28.50 to 29 area for trading. If things don't take a hit in the next two days..I would expect the last call in the first two weeks of January.

Sooooo, frankly If I were just looking to add physical - I might wait to see how things look into the first couple weeks of Jan - but if I wasn't sweating a buck or two an ounce I would buy right now as I am in the $50 camp by end of 2011 and onward to the 20:1 $100 camp by mid to late 2012.

[Twisted Titan]

Always Buy ..........

You can always find a place to stick it later

[Mouse]

At 25 face that's right about $35 an ounce, so really not that spectacular. But peace dollars sure are pretty.

[1970 silver art]

Yup.

That 'funny feeling' is called intuition.

Men usually call it their 'gut feeling'.


Actually I have 2 "gut feelings". I have one gut feeling that predicts where gold and silver will finish at the end of the year (a.k.a. my gut feeling prediction) and my other gut feeling is my "real" gut feeling (a.k.a. male intuition).

;D ;D ;D

[1970 silver art]

I stopped by an antique store today that I had not been in for quite a long time. Loaded with sterling silver stuff... a multiple vendor operation.

Also there were a few coin dealers there. Overall, I expect that they would know what is going on very well.

Peace dollars in real good condition tagged for $25 each... a couple dozen of them.


Anyone think the market will pull back? Is this a deal to snap up or is it a time to wait?


It depends. If buying silver is considered part of your prepping, then I would go ahead and buy them. If you are buying silver strictly for investment purposes, then I would hold off because with spot in the $30's range (almost $31), then there is that possibility that silver could go through a correction. The higher silver goes, the higher the likelihood that there could be a market correction in my opinion.

[Spectrism]

http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1921-1935-Silver-Peace-Dollar-Value.html

Using the latest metal prices and the specifications above, these are the numbers required to calculate melt value:


$30.62 = silver price / ounce on Dec 29, 2010.
.90 = silver %
$4.2768 = copper price / pound on Dec 29, 2010.
.10 = copper %
26.73 = total weight in grams
.0321507466 = ounce/gram conversion factor
.00220462262 = pound/gram conversion factor (see note directly below)


The NYMEX uses pounds to price copper and that means we need to multiply the metal price by .00220462262 to make the conversion to grams. The silver price is based in troy ounces and that means we need to multiply the metal price by .0321507466 to make the conversion to grams.



1. Calculate 90% silver value :

(30.62 × .0321507466 × 26.73 × .90) = $23.6830533594


$23.6830 is the rounded silver value for the 1921-1935 silver Peace dollar on December 29, 2010. This is usually the value used by coin dealers when selling these coins at melt value. However, the total melt value is continued below.



2. Calculate 10% copper value :

(4.2768 × .00220462262 × 26.73 × .10) = $0.0252025


3. Add the two together :

$23.6830533594 + $0.0252025 = $23.7082558594




$23.7082558594 is the total melt value for the 1921-1935 silver Peace dollar on December 29, 2010.

A good price at melt value would be around $24.... for coins not worn thin. Obviously, we look to store wealth as the dollar is being destroyed. It is a little hard for me to buy at this price since I was buying these for $12 just 18 months ago. And when I look at my wonderful FRNs, I see toilet paper (sorry Ponce- didn't mean to insult TP). Also, I like to find real steal deals much under melt value.

We are at a stage that all hell could break loose any day. $600 could buy:

a) log splitter for fire wood
b) 3 months of food preps
c) 2 months of heating oil
d) two handfuls of silver dollars
e) A pump 12ga with plenty of ammo

If we fast forward 12 or 36 months, what will 24 silver dollars buy?

[Silver Shield]

Any day you can trade fake money for real money is a good day.

[jaybone]

A buddy was lamenting not selling his silver certificates @ $18 when it dropped back down to $15 in February.
I told him to hang on, that $18 was a lock later in the year.

Now he asks me again if he should sell at $30, he is worried it will go back down to $15.

I asked him why he had silver, what was his purpose in owning it.
He had no answer. So I told him to sell, and:
if he wants insurance against $ collapse, get rid of the damn certificates and get real.
if he wants to multiply his depreciating dollars, then get into some PM juniors.

He got a 'special deal' from the bank since he was such a long time customer. They were not charging him storage fees for his certificates! How generous of them! to store a piece of paper for free.

I guess my point is, if you want insurance then buy whatever the price is, if you want to make a quick buck then a better buying opportunity may be coming in the spring.
If you want to get the shaft when your bank goes under, then get certificates and hold them for decades.

[chud]

I guess my point is, if you want insurance then buy whatever the price is, if you want to make a quick buck then a better buying opportunity may be coming in the spring.



Well said, that's my philosophy.

[Spectrism]

Silver certificates? You mean pieces of paper that supposedly claim you are entitled to real silver?

LOL... that is like owning stocks in 1929.

[Neuro]

I do think we are coming close to an end to this particular rally, certainly the biggest gains will most likely be in the coming weeks, possibly up to $35-40, the interesting thing is though we are up at record levels, dollar is still strong vs other currencies. Thus I do think we still have plenty of upside in PMs. But if you measure your wealth in another Fiat currency than USD, it may be better to sell now...

[Twisted Titan]

There will be minor corrections as nothing moves up in a straight line but if anybody is thinking that Silver is going to take a 11 plus hair cut .........They are dreaming.

If silver even takes a mere 7 dollar hit the markets will go bone dry while premniums will go through the roof.

This is serious business People.........I cant beilve I have lived to see the day when Gold and Silver commercials would become as common as ipod adverts.


T

[Spectrism]

Update....

I went back. I asked an attendent to take some out of the case for my inspection. They were in sealed capsules. I did not like this. If they are graded by a respected organization, no problem. But these were heavy plastic seals that prevent you from getting a good look at the edges and weighing them. Cutting them out might also cause damage to the coins. They were not in perfect shape anyway. Just didn't feel right. I remembered this:

(see pics at site)
http://home.comcast.net/~reidgold/draped_busts/chinese.html
Fake Silver Dollars From China


China is a great nation with a rich heritage, and all of the Chinese people I've met have been honorable. Yet China has a major problem with fakery, a problem for the rest of the world as well as itself. China is the world's capital of counterfeiting, with coins, antiquities, fossils, computer software, music CDs, movie DVDs, books, paintings, clothes, sneakers, jewelry, watches, handbags, toys, sporting goods, film, batteries, food, baby formula, pet food, medicine, cars, car parts, trucks, and much else.

The Chinese make these goods, copying a major brand. But instead of putting their own label or logo on any given product, they put the brand's logo on the product to try to fool consumers into thinking that the company behind the brand, and not the Chinese copyist, made it. They often succeed. China is the worst country in the world in terms of counterfeiting, according to the International Intellectual Property Alliance, with Russia, Italy, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, India, Taiwan, and Portugal following in order. China not only is the worst country in the world, it appears to make far more counterfeits than all the other countries in the world combined. China is the source of about 80 percent of all counterfeit goods seized at U.S. ports by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency. Entire factories, even entire towns in China, have been built specifically to produce counterfeit goods.

According to Dan Chow, a law professor at Ohio State University who specializes in Chinese counterfeiting and who was quoted in a CBS News story, "We have never seen a problem of this size and magnitude in world history. There's more counterfeiting going on in China now than we've ever seen anywhere. We know that 15 to 20 percent of all goods in China are counterfeit." According to attorney Harley Lewin, who has been going after counterfeiters from China for more than 20 years and who was quoted in the same CBS News story, "[Chinese counterfeiting] is the most profitable criminal venture, as far as I know, on Earth."

China has a big problem with counterfeiting of its own currency, paper money as well as coins, according to counterfeit expert Robert Matthews. The Chinese police periodically seize fake large quantities of Chinese notes and coins.

China also has a big problem with the faking of its own past. Chinese antiquities shops and markets consist almost entirely of fakes, as reported in an article at the China Daily Web site. Professor Yang Jingrong stated that 95 percent of all antiquities sold in China are modern forgeries. Chinese antiquities shopkeepers for the most part appear to knowingly sell fakes as authentic under the subterfuge that it's the buyer's responsibility to determine authenticity.

Many Chinese counterfeit goods are shoddy or dangerous, using low-grade components or ingredients. Chinese imports into the U.S. in general account for more than 60 percent of product recalls by the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Chinese consumers also suffer from shoddy counterfeits. Horrible incidents have been reported multiple times in the news of dozens to hundreds of Chinese babies dying or getting sick after being fed counterfeit baby formula, laced with a deadly chemical to make a diluted product appear to have a higher protein content.

The 2008 Olympics demonstrated to the world just how ingrained fakery is in Chinese society today. China faked the opening ceremony, using digital effects for the televised proceedings instead of real fireworks, as later revealed by a Chinese newspaper; it faked its "national unity" parade by contending that children wearing costumes of different ethnic groups consisted of ethnic minorities when in fact they were all of the Han majority; and it even faked the age of its female gymnists, breaking the Olympic rules, to let underage children compete.

The problem of Chinese counterfeiting has gone on for years and appears to just worsen over time. Fakery in China seems to be official government policy or at least officially tolerated. Whenever major news of Chinese counterfeiting surfaces in the West, the Chinese government takes highly publicized and sometimes dramatic but ultimately superficial steps to try to stop it. The true nature of official Chinese attitudes is more likely along the lines of statements from Chinese officials saying that counterfeiting is the cost that foreign companies must pay to be able to do business in China.

Chinese officials have also been quoted as saying the international press exaggerates the issue, and they have accused Chinese journalists of faking news reports of fake Chinese goods. Chinese journalists have in fact been caught faking. But much bigger than the problem of faking by Chinese journalists is the problem of faking in Chinese society as a whole.

China is a developing country and doesn't appear to recognize international law regarding intellectual property. To the Chinese, copying is entrepreneurship, with copyrights, trademarks, and patents being foreign concepts and largely ignored. Chinese society as a whole in its energetic drive toward economic prosperity seems to have chosen fakery as a shortcut, ignoring conventions in the rest of the civilized world.

When Japan was transforming itself into an industrial power in the years following World War Two, it also competed by making low-cost goods. But for the most part it didn't try to deceive by putting fake labels of companies from other countries on these products and trying to create the impression that these goods are of the same quality as those put out by these companies and are warranted by them. Japan proudly labeled its low-cost goods as "Made in Japan" rather than using fake labels as China does.

On the other hand, China has a rich cultural, scientific, and intellectual heritage. From the time of Confucius and Lao-Tzu, China has contributed to the betterment of civilization. Today, China also makes many authentic, original goods.

Coinage has a long history in China, with the first Chinese coins thought to have been minted at about the same time as the first coins in Asia Minor.

The following six silver dollar forgeries were bought in China by a businessman at a flea market from a Chinese seller who was selling them as authentic old U.S. coins. The seller's asking price for these pieces was the equivalent of about $28 each. The businessman wound up buying them for less than $1 each, which of course is less than their face value. The businessman emailed me their images to help in the counterfeit education effort.

The 1804 dollar fake below is the same type as the 1800 fake that I call "Lightweight" on the previous page of this site. All of these fakes appear to have come from the same forgery workshop, which would mean that they're made of copper-nickel, not silver, and weigh between 18 and 21 grams, substantially less than the correct weight of around 27 grams.

Fakes of this type regularly appear on eBay, sometimes sold as fakes, sometimes sold as replicas, sometimes sold as authentic coins, sometimes sold as coins that the seller found in his grandmother's attic, and though he doesn't know if they're real or not, they sure look old to him. Many other Chinese counterfeits of U.S. dollars and other coins are out there as well, put out by other Chinese forgery factories. Some coin dealers in California report receiving about one phone call a day asking whether the old U.S. coins the person just bought on the street are real. One person emailed me about a dozen U.S. silver dollars he bought "cheap" in California that turned out to be magnetic, indicating an iron content, which no authentic U.S. dollar coins have.

Some Chinese forgery criminals sell marked replicas on eBay in large quantities. According to several people, all you have to do is ask and the Chinese seller will sell the same pieces to you not marked as replicas. Legitimate replica makers refuse to do this. The quality reportedly ranges from very obvious to very deceptive. Chinese forgery factories appear to be using eBay in this way to find wholesale buyers of their work. This has the potential of flooding the world's collectibles markets with ever more Chinese fakes.

1885-S Morgan dollar forgery
1922 Peace dollar forgery

[Bullion_Bob]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

[Spectrism]

Sure... buy the dip. Borrow money and buy the dip. This only works if you tell everyone else to buy the ffff dip you idiot.

They were talking about stocks... not PMs. The expected pull back in PMs has not happened yet. If PMs pull back 20%, that would be a nice dip to buy in.

[ximmy]

Good info Spectrism... I'm checking my coins now... perhaps I have a counterfeit... :)