osoab
21st January 2011, 10:44 AM
Anthony Bolton: 'Gold is the only commodity to buy' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8260049/Anthony-Bolton-Gold-is-the-only-commodity-to-buy.html)
It's too late to join commodities party, the Fidelity fund star says.
Commodities enthusiasts are investing five years too late, according to legendary fund manager Anthony Bolton.
"The best time for commodities was in 2006, when the whole world was growing above trend," said Mr Bolton, who manages the Fidelity China Special Situations investment trust.
"Western economies are anaemic at the moment, and I am not sure emerging market growth is enough to keep commodities going."
Despite many managers believing that commodities are a key part of the emerging markets story, Mr Bolton holds only one commodities stock in his fund, a gold mine.
It is uncertainty about America that is keeping Mr Bolton from increasing his exposure to commodities. While China is experiencing a bull market, he warned that the "stars of one bull market are not necessarily the stars of another".
He continued: "Commodities are measured in US dollars and the US dollar has been weak for the past couple of years. If commodities were measured in a stronger currency, the recent rallies might have been different."
The exception to this rule, according to Mr Bolton, is gold. He said he considered it a good investment while the West was experiencing slow growth.
"Gold is more like a currency than a commodity," he said. "Only a small fraction of gold mined is used – for jewellery and the like. The way it is held as an asset in central banks is not a feature common to other commodities.
"Almost every country has a big budget deficit at the moment so it is in their favour to see their currency depreciate. Countries hold gold as a protection against that."
Chinese investors have also started to take an interest in gold, he said, where previously they were buying American bonds.
more at the link above.
It's too late to join commodities party, the Fidelity fund star says.
Commodities enthusiasts are investing five years too late, according to legendary fund manager Anthony Bolton.
"The best time for commodities was in 2006, when the whole world was growing above trend," said Mr Bolton, who manages the Fidelity China Special Situations investment trust.
"Western economies are anaemic at the moment, and I am not sure emerging market growth is enough to keep commodities going."
Despite many managers believing that commodities are a key part of the emerging markets story, Mr Bolton holds only one commodities stock in his fund, a gold mine.
It is uncertainty about America that is keeping Mr Bolton from increasing his exposure to commodities. While China is experiencing a bull market, he warned that the "stars of one bull market are not necessarily the stars of another".
He continued: "Commodities are measured in US dollars and the US dollar has been weak for the past couple of years. If commodities were measured in a stronger currency, the recent rallies might have been different."
The exception to this rule, according to Mr Bolton, is gold. He said he considered it a good investment while the West was experiencing slow growth.
"Gold is more like a currency than a commodity," he said. "Only a small fraction of gold mined is used – for jewellery and the like. The way it is held as an asset in central banks is not a feature common to other commodities.
"Almost every country has a big budget deficit at the moment so it is in their favour to see their currency depreciate. Countries hold gold as a protection against that."
Chinese investors have also started to take an interest in gold, he said, where previously they were buying American bonds.
more at the link above.