Ares
30th January 2011, 09:23 AM
Bedouin tribesman have reportedly taken control of two towns in the Sinai Peninsula. These two towns are the closest to the Gaza Strip and right next to the border with Israel. There were reports yesterday that Bedouin tribes had besieged a police station in Suez and it appears that these riots have spread. This would effectively end the Mubarak dictatorship’s control of the region. There are no reports of the Egyptian military stepping in here.
The more disturbing news is a threat that has been made by the tribes if Mubarak does not step down. According to one report coming from Time Magazine, they are willing to attack the Suez Canal if Mubarak does not leave. The Suez Canal currently is where a third of the world’s oil and six percent of all products passes through. A seizure of the Canal could spike oil prices beyond the current $90 level, perhaps over $110. This could come to pass despite the fact that Egypt is not a major oil producer.
It has been speculated that the Egyptian army would not allow the Canal, perhaps Egypt’s most important economic element, to be attacked. However, there appears to be little to no protection and one report states that at least one ship has been attacked there. Others have reported fear of passing through due to the unrest.
And a prominent Bedouin smuggler in the Sinai peninsula told TIME that Bedouin are now in control of the two towns closest to the Gaza Strip, and that they planned to press on to attack the Suez Canal if Mubarak does not step down. He also said that police stations in the south Sinai would be attacked if Bedouin prisoners were not released.
If the Egyptian army was to attempt a defense of the Canal, they could likely succeed, even against heavily armed tribesmen. However, if the army is tied down in Alexandria and Cairo or have been ordered to stand down, then access to the Canal could be cut off as soon as tomorrow.
If there is a credible threat to the Suez Canal or actual stoppage by force, the 1956 invasion comes to mind. When Egyptian dictator Gamel Nasser nationalized the Canal, the combined forces of Britain, France, and Israel took it by force. It is possible that the United States or European powers would consider to retain control of this important waterway.
The White House or Downing Street have not commented on this breaking story. It is unknown if the Obama Administration has put in place a contingency plan in case of the seizure of the canal. The US military regularly travels through the waterway.
http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=5659
The more disturbing news is a threat that has been made by the tribes if Mubarak does not step down. According to one report coming from Time Magazine, they are willing to attack the Suez Canal if Mubarak does not leave. The Suez Canal currently is where a third of the world’s oil and six percent of all products passes through. A seizure of the Canal could spike oil prices beyond the current $90 level, perhaps over $110. This could come to pass despite the fact that Egypt is not a major oil producer.
It has been speculated that the Egyptian army would not allow the Canal, perhaps Egypt’s most important economic element, to be attacked. However, there appears to be little to no protection and one report states that at least one ship has been attacked there. Others have reported fear of passing through due to the unrest.
And a prominent Bedouin smuggler in the Sinai peninsula told TIME that Bedouin are now in control of the two towns closest to the Gaza Strip, and that they planned to press on to attack the Suez Canal if Mubarak does not step down. He also said that police stations in the south Sinai would be attacked if Bedouin prisoners were not released.
If the Egyptian army was to attempt a defense of the Canal, they could likely succeed, even against heavily armed tribesmen. However, if the army is tied down in Alexandria and Cairo or have been ordered to stand down, then access to the Canal could be cut off as soon as tomorrow.
If there is a credible threat to the Suez Canal or actual stoppage by force, the 1956 invasion comes to mind. When Egyptian dictator Gamel Nasser nationalized the Canal, the combined forces of Britain, France, and Israel took it by force. It is possible that the United States or European powers would consider to retain control of this important waterway.
The White House or Downing Street have not commented on this breaking story. It is unknown if the Obama Administration has put in place a contingency plan in case of the seizure of the canal. The US military regularly travels through the waterway.
http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=5659