Silver passes $30 again

[General of Darkness]

wOOt.

[chad]

sweeeeeeeet

[madfranks]

Crazy. So from here do we dip again or do we press on to $35 and up?

[Neuro]

Crazy. So from here do we dip again or do we press on to $35 and up?
I have a feeling we will not have any significant dips until $35-40 in March-April...

[Ponce]

This time is on more secured ground.......this could be it ;D

First post of the day..................good morning to one and all.

[cthulu]

Psh this obsolete relic doesn't even give
Out any dividends :lol

[Ponce]

ctchulu?........no dividens???.....well, from $5.16 to $30.16 X a lot......you do the math.

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

KEWL!!!


am I rich yet? ;D

[Ponce]

JJ?.......you are always "rich" if you enjoy what you have........think of those who don't have it.

[bellevuebully]

I say 42 bucks within 50 days.

[Sparky]

This is the move we talked about a few weeks ago. Let's see what happens if/when we approach the $31.25 record. My guess was that we would approach that mark and then retreat.

And frankly, it doesn't matter much, because approach of the record is more evidence that the bull is not dead. When bulls reach their blow-off tops, they don't approach them again for decades.

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.

[Twisted Titan]

Silver Up buy less
Silver the same buy the same
Silver Down buy more.

Dollar cost average will make us all kabillionares in REAL MONEY terms.


T

[madfranks]

This is the move we talked about a few weeks ago. Let's see what happens if/when we approach the $31.25 record. My guess was that we would approach that mark and then retreat.

And frankly, it doesn't matter much, because approach of the record is more evidence that the bull is not dead. When bulls reach their blow-off tops, they don't approach them again for decades.

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.


Great analysis, as always. Regarding the "bubble territory", and hypothetically speaking, if a commodity such as silver had been suppressed and held down so it is dramatically undervalued, when the suppression starts to fail and the commodity begins to rise to it's true market value, wouldn't a 125% boost be just the beginning?

[mick silver]

the whole world knows that paper is paper . i just dont see silver ever going below 25 bucks again

[Serpo]

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.


With still not passing its old high?

[Bullion_Bob]

Wait until everyone figures out the dollar itself is a ponzi scheme. People will be running for the real money at any price.

[Plastic]

I just wish the 1oz = 1 acre thingy would hurry up and arrive, someplace out there is a remote farm with my name written all over it.

[mick silver]

i have some land for sale . i will take 1 oz of gold per acre

[Sparky]

This is the move we talked about a few weeks ago. Let's see what happens if/when we approach the $31.25 record. My guess was that we would approach that mark and then retreat.

And frankly, it doesn't matter much, because approach of the record is more evidence that the bull is not dead. When bulls reach their blow-off tops, they don't approach them again for decades.

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.


Great analysis, as always. Regarding the "bubble territory", and hypothetically speaking, if a commodity such as silver had been suppressed and held down so it is dramatically undervalued, when the suppression starts to fail and the commodity begins to rise to it's true market value, wouldn't a 125% boost be just the beginning?


It's possible we are witnessing the first wave of failed suppression now.

Even so, I'm just saying that it would start to look more like a bubble than if it simply retreated from $31. Remember, the ultimate bubble will be launched from a stable floor; the higher the floor, the higher the peak. I'd say the current floor is $18. Previous floors were $12, $8, and $4. I'd like to see one established around $24.

Remember, the final blowoff (suppression or not) will be in the form of a 125%-250% spike. I'd rather see that occur after several more advance-retreat cycles, rather than too soon. This would also be better for the post-bubble long-term price. If we spike to $50 now, we could retreat back to the current floor ($18) and stay in a range ($18-$24) for 10-20 years. I just think the timing is not right yet for that.

[chad]

please get to $100, please get to $100, please get to $100. i will be a millionaire. please get to $100.

[mick silver]

sparky are you planning on saling your silver if it move higher , then buying back in IF the price was to drop .

[Sparky]

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.


With still not passing its old high?


Yes, possibly. Maybe a 20% chance of that occurring. But I expect the new high during this generational bull to be $75. It could be higher if the whole money system falls apart. Problem in that scenario is that the liquidity might not be assured. It might be better to have $75 and the ability to convert it to tangible goods (after transitioning through the prevailing currency) at any time. Also, in that scenario, it may only retain it's current buying power rather that increase your wealth. I would rather have silver at $75 and be able to buy a ham for $25, than have silver and ham both cost $200.

[bellevuebully]

But I expect the new high during this generational bull to be $75. It could be higher if the whole money system falls apart. Problem in that scenario is that the liquidity might not be assured. It might be better to have $75 and the ability to convert it to tangible goods (after transitioning through the prevailing currency) at any time. Also, in that scenario, it may only retain it's current buying power rather that increase your wealth. I would rather have silver at $75 and be able to buy a ham for $25, than have silver and ham both cost $200.


I disagree with your projected high. Most of your other sentiments I do agree with, especially liquidity.

I posed a question the other day on that note. Basically, the statement was made that this bull has the potential to produce generational wealth for holders of substantial quantities. I stated that this is something that is common sentiment among pm bulls, but you rarely hear anyone discuss the mechanics of capturing that opportunity. If you dishoard metal, you have to exchange it for something. What is that something? What are the trading vehicles for conducting the exchange? Does one dishoard near a top, or is it a gradual dishoarding based on needs? No one ever discusses these things. I'd like to hear some feedback from others.

Anyway, getting back to the high....there are two basic reasons why I think you have seriously undercut the overall price potential. The first has to do with the length of the previous bear, and where it occured in the history of the middle class. Nobody explored for silver in the last 25 years. That fact alone puts industry well behind the eight ball. Couple that with a time in history when the 'peasants' are engaged in consuming silver, rather than only governments and the wealthy, and the demand side of the equation puts that much more pressure on the 'behind the eight ball' issue. Mines take a long time to develop.

Second, is the idea that the majority of the gains come in the last time frame of a bull. The traditional percentages are 90 % of the gain in the last 10% of the time. If we have been in a 10 year bull and the market has gained roughly $25 and the market blew off here, we would be looking at about a $225 gain in the next 12 - 18 months. Granted, this is aggressive. But it illustrates the principle.

Anyhow, I'm right and your wrong. haha ;D Go silver!

[Sparky]

BB, I think $125 is plausible. $225, not so much.

18 months? Hard to imagine that. This PM bull won't peak until we have a posed financial solution borne out of crisis, which I still think is 2-4 years away, after the next presidential election is secured by somebody.

You pose a very interesting topic regarding dishoarding. What are people's individual end games? I know some here have no plan to sell ever, thinking that whatever they exchange it for will not have any intrinsic value.

However, the market price tends to overshoot, so I think the financially optimal thing will be to make some conversion, maybe to bonds paying 15-20%, after the inflation surge has run its course, or perhaps stocks in a crashed market. Perhaps even CD's paying 15%. Life is cyclical, so there will be a new era of stability some day, even if there is a SHTF situation.

The hard part is the timing. If silver were to shoot from $30 to $70, it would be hard to pull the trigger. If it then advances past $100, it will get even harder, because then $1000 is not unimaginable. But the bubble deflates quickly. There will only be a few weeks with a rapidly accelerating price and you will have to act decisively. In 1980, you had to be willing to take $35 when the spot price was $50 in order to hit the peak. Who here will be willing to take $70 when spot hits $100?

I tell myself I will be willing to sell up to half of my physical some day, and hang on to the rest as continuing "insurance". I imagine there will be some interesting "sell stories" here on GSUS some day. Some will sell early, a few lucky ones will hit it right, and some will still be holding their hoard as silver goes to $100 and then back to $25.

[mrnhtbr2232]

First, I've got to hand it to this thread - all of you are tossing some great comments and I'm reading with great interest. Personally I think the real bottom today is more like $22 than $18, so we're already close to the "mid-$20's" The silver market is acting like a ratchet that slips once in a while, but overall the linear progression continues to increase in spot price. At this point if it slips hard it won't last long to recover given demand for physical. I don't think we'll see sub-$20 Silver again in our lifetime.

[bellevuebully]

I agree. Market peak 3-5 years. I have no price point on sell. Price point tells me nothing. I will sell (change strategy) when fundies change. Until then, more or less status quo. Nobody really knows what silver is worth. It will more or less continue to be driven by fundies, so they will be my determining factor.

That said however, I will likely at some point convert a part of holdings into some form of land investment, whether it be raw or partially developed. Last I checked, the land factory was mothballed, so if one can afford the taxes, I think it is a good wealth preserver in the long term.

Like you, I plan on passing part of my holdings down. I look at a certain amount as purely insurance. You have a car worth 30k and you hold insurance on it, a snowmobile worth 10k with insurance on it, why would you leave your life savings uninsured? To me, that is just common sense. This last generation of investors throught the 25 year equity bull have lost all sense of this concept. That is why so many today consider gold a relic that just sits there and stares at you.......well, so does insurance.

Ya, 25 years from now, there will be like 50 Ponces here talking about the great bull of 2012, hahaha.

Peace

[mick silver]

i think if we see oil over a hundred this could work for silver . i think silver could go to 40 if oil went to 125 a barrel

[General of Darkness]

I got a bad feeling today.

In the past week I've seen Haliburton pickup trucks and Haliburton trailors etc, and I drive A LOT. At this point I, MISHKO, don't think it's going to matter what silver or PM's do, either you got em or you don't. I do need to restock my food preps.

I really don't mean to be a downer, but I've been seeing a ton of, out of the ordinary things lately. My gut is telling me, something bad is coming. Like everyone else, I'm enjoying my life, it's ups and downs, but something wicked comes this way.

PM's are just ONE part of a persons survival in the up and coming turmoil. The discussion so far in my mind is interesting.

BUT lets be honest, if silver goes to $100 the entire system will have crashed. Oil will be at $20 at gallon, and you might not even be able to get it.

Be careful what you wish for. ;)

[Libertytree]

But I expect the new high during this generational bull to be $75. It could be higher if the whole money system falls apart. Problem in that scenario is that the liquidity might not be assured. It might be better to have $75 and the ability to convert it to tangible goods (after transitioning through the prevailing currency) at any time. Also, in that scenario, it may only retain it's current buying power rather that increase your wealth. I would rather have silver at $75 and be able to buy a ham for $25, than have silver and ham both cost $200.


I disagree with your projected high. Most of your other sentiments I do agree with, especially liquidity.

I posed a question the other day on that note. Basically, the statement was made that this bull has the potential to produce generational wealth for holders of substantial quantities. I stated that this is something that is common sentiment among pm bulls, but you rarely hear anyone discuss the mechanics of capturing that opportunity. If you dishoard metal, you have to exchange it for something. What is that something? What are the trading vehicles for conducting the exchange? Does one dishoard near a top, or is it a gradual dishoarding based on needs? No one ever discusses these things. I'd like to hear some feedback from others.

Anyway, getting back to the high....there are two basic reasons why I think you have seriously undercut the overall price potential. The first has to do with the length of the previous bear, and where it occured in the history of the middle class. Nobody explored for silver in the last 25 years. That fact alone puts industry well behind the eight ball. Couple that with a time in history when the 'peasants' are engaged in consuming silver, rather than only governments and the wealthy, and the demand side of the equation puts that much more pressure on the 'behind the eight ball' issue. Mines take a long time to develop.

Second, is the idea that the majority of the gains come in the last time frame of a bull. The traditional percentages are 90 % of the gain in the last 10% of the time. If we have been in a 10 year bull and the market has gained roughly $25 and the market blew off here, we would be looking at about a $225 gain in the next 12 - 18 months. Granted, this is aggressive. But it illustrates the principle.

Anyhow, I'm right and your wrong. haha ;D Go silver!




"Does one dishoard near a top, or is it a gradual dishoarding based on needs?"

Good question. I'm probably not eligible to answer this question because my meager holdings are primarily for survival purposes but the fact that that investment will be worth far more then doesn't suck either. It's crazy to think that a little silver dime might one day be worth $10.00.

[Sparky]

This is the move we talked about a few weeks ago. Let's see what happens if/when we approach the $31.25 record. My guess was that we would approach that mark and then retreat.

And frankly, it doesn't matter much, because approach of the record is more evidence that the bull is not dead. When bulls reach their blow-off tops, they don't approach them again for decades.

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.


Silver strength again today, with the gold:silver ratio (44.5) now within striking distance of its 4-year low of 44. Re-examining the above post, I could now envision a scenario where gold approaches its $1430 high by April and retreats, while silver establishes a new high in the $34-$35 range. This could potentially set up the next silver floor in the $25-$27 range, which would be a solid 35-40% gain from its current $18-$20 floor.

[Silver Shield]

$50 by the end of March...

And a busted CRIMEX..

[Spectrism]

I say 42 bucks within 50 days.


Yeup... sure could be. I expect silver to be over $50 by November.

[Spectrism]

Silver Up buy less
Silver the same buy the same
Silver Down buy more.

Dollar cost average will make us all kabillionares in REAL MONEY terms.


T


I have an ounce of silver and expect to be:
a kabillionare in FRN terms.

But- the collapse of the FRN will be quickly followed by crafty legislation and a new idol for the people to bow before.

[madfranks]

$50 by the end of March...

And a busted CRIMEX..


That's a pretty serious prediction. If the Chinese are indeed buying massive amounts of COMEX silver with the plan to demand delivery, well anything's possible.

[SLV^GLD]

I'll restate my previous call of $50 by 03/2012. My line of reasoning is similar to Sparky's but his version was far more eloquent and clarified.

[Silver Shield]

$50 by the end of March...

And a busted CRIMEX..


That's a pretty serious prediction. If the Chinese are indeed buying massive amounts of COMEX silver with the plan to demand delivery, well anything's possible.
$3 billion dollars does the deed.

How much money does China have???

Hell, Apple lost $10 billion in 15 minutes.

[chad]

$50 by the end of March...

And a busted CRIMEX..


That's a pretty serious prediction. If the Chinese are indeed buying massive amounts of COMEX silver with the plan to demand delivery, well anything's possible.
$3 billion dollars does the deed.

How much money does China have???

Hell, Apple lost $10 billion in 15 minutes.


that's what i can't figure out. why doesn't somebody rich just hurry up and do it already? it's such a small number in the larger scheme of things. it's odd no one has tried it.

[Low_five]

wOOt.


fuck that metal. SLV is almost to 30, and thats where the real store of wealth is.

[Neuro]

This is the move we talked about a few weeks ago. Let's see what happens if/when we approach the $31.25 record. My guess was that we would approach that mark and then retreat.

And frankly, it doesn't matter much, because approach of the record is more evidence that the bull is not dead. When bulls reach their blow-off tops, they don't approach them again for decades.

Ironically, if we do get to $40+ dollars this spring, that would be more characteristic to the end of the silver bull, because it would represent a gain of 125% in 6-8 months, which is getting into bubble territory. I'd be happy to reach $31 and then consolidate back into the mid $20s, setting a more stable floor for the next leg up.


Silver strength again today, with the gold:silver ratio (44.5) now within striking distance of its 4-year low of 44. Re-examining the above post, I could now envision a scenario where gold approaches its $1430 high by April and retreats, while silver establishes a new high in the $34-$35 range. This could potentially set up the next silver floor in the $25-$27 range, which would be a solid 35-40% gain from its current $18-$20 floor.
Glad to see that you start seeing things my way. Though I could see it going up towards 40 in the spring, followed by a horrible summer to the low 20's, maybe even $18-19... A repeat of 2008 but at double the amount... This time though I doubt that it will stay down as long. A collapsing society will demand a quicker larger injection from the central banks, and we will see silver up at 40 in November this year, above that the sky is the limit...

[Sparky]

I'm leaving COMEX out of the equation since they can solve any silver shortage problem with a simple rule change.

[Walter Mitty]

We will not know the true price till all the paper games collapse.
If the Paper games never collapse it could go to $4.00 or maybe it could go to ?

[Sparky]

...
Re-examining the above post, I could now envision a scenario where gold approaches its $1430 high by April and retreats, while silver establishes a new high in the $34-$35 range. This could potentially set up the next silver floor in the $25-$27 range, which would be a solid 35-40% gain from its current $18-$20 floor.


OK, with gold at $1430 this morning and silver at $34.55, we are now setting up to test this scenario that I mentioned a few weeks ago. Let's see how the metals respond over the next few days or weeks now that gold is back up near its nominal high.