Am in Philippines, my perspective on Japan quake/tsunami/nuke plant

[ShortJohnSilver]

First, the quake was reported about 3-4PM Friday local time; so lots of people heard about it.

I watched the various TV channels, CNN had the best coverage, followed by BBC and Bloomberg tied for second, Fox News was last - primarily because they were showing the refinery fire carnage while the text on the bottom of the screen talked about the nuke plant problems - perhaps deliberately confusing, or the producer is a moron.

All were using the NHK (Japanese TV station) supplied coverage.

Some people freaked out, the moron friend of my wife brought her two kids to the adult-only party, out of fear the tsunami would kill us all and she wanted to die with her kids - and yes, some Asian kids are brats. Typical freakout non-thinking reaction - I looked at the map and it was clear we were in no danger.

The tsunami, by the time it reached the Phils, was less than 6 feet high at the very northern islands (Batanes) and near Manila was 3 feet high; further, the most populated part of Manila is close to Manila Bay, the tsunami hit the other side of the island (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzon), so for it to do damage it would have had to travel the entire width.

I am trying to find a source for potassium iodide tablets - nobody else it seems in my wife's family, has ever heard of them - just in case the nuke plant releases some radioactive steam and the wind carries it this way. Will update on what I am able to find later.

This thread has relatively intelligent comments about the nuclear plant issues:
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2315205

If it gets worse, the worse case scenario is maybe 36-48 hours of radioactive steam being picked up and dispersed (the radioactivity decreasing all the while) ; since it could take a while to reach Manila, I figure 3 days' worth of PI tablets per person would be more than enough, and probably due to dispersal the real solution would be to just stay indoors.

Concerning preps, I will report on any panic buying or other weird crap I notice. I am in the Rockwell (most expensive, most foreigners around) area and expect that any rich yuppies who are worried will be buying out the supermarkets if possible.

[ShortJohnSilver]

OK, the supermarket I was at showed no shortages on staples or anything else; which means panic buying is non-existent.

However, traffic at both the upper-crust mall and the huge Mall of Asia (more mainstream) was definitely down from other Saturdays, according to each person I spoke with. Perhaps this is a reaction to dangerous happenings, people just decide to stay home or not travel as much even if they are not affected.

Potassium iodide tablets - the local pharmacy didn't even know what they were, and they are not "in the computer" as something standard or orderable. I am going to buy the two kinds of Iodine they have and hope to find out from my wife's friend who is an excellent doctor, how to use that (probably diluted with a lot more water) in the event we need to suppress the thyroid's production of iodine.

Masks - there are some N95 masks, these are not really all that useful I feel - if it comes down to it, just staying indoors is probably the likely fix, we are 20 stories up and the building is new and well sealed. The N95 masks are the paper ones with a little bar of metal you press on to fit it to the bridge of your nose - I don't feel very confident in them - a wet towel over the face would probably filter more.

Now comes the news that the one nuke plant's building has blown up, radioactivity level unknown, but this is not the last we will hear of it, I think.

The question is, if there is a release, what amount will end up in Manila? Prevailing winds from Japan go straight over to USA.

So I think the appropriate level of worry is just to ensure there is food present (there is) and to have the iodine on hand.

[Ponce]

Don't everyone go nuts on this till you find out wich way the wind blows....

[JDRock]

i appreciate your input on this SJS....i hope,but doubt the bastards will give us honest info as to if, and how bad it leakes......

[ShortJohnSilver]

OK so update: looks like more radiation will be released, how bad that gets, or whether it will reach the Philippines due to prevailing winds being more likely to blow it towards Vancouver, BC, remains to be seen.

Turns out, there is potassium iodide, and potassium ioDATE, either will work - I may have made a mistake at the pharmacy as iodate is more stable in hot and humid environments. In any case I have iodine tincture and "povidone" which is used as antiseptic which contains a slightly different form of iodine. One way or another I can get iodine in my system. As well there is lots of seaweed and miso soup, etc. which is a natural way to guard against radiation poisoning.

The nasty stuff is cesium-137, read more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesium-137 . If enough of it gets to you, you die in a few weeks. Will enough get to Manila, even if all 3 reactors go? Unknown, but my belief is no - there is enough space between here and there - even with Chernobyl not too far from Germany, it is estimated that only a pound of cesium was distributed across the whole of the country. Will still try to locate some Prussian Blue (a chemical that binds to cesium and then exits the body) in any case.

Social observations:

There were several rumors going around via text messaging, including that the malls would be closed early at 4PM; that fallout was already on its way to Manila; that schools were to be closed, etc. None of them were true.

The girls at the hair salon where my wife had her nails done (for a party, she rarely goes to such places) had heard that if you paint your neck with iodine you will be OK (which is really only half-accurate, see above). Definitely there was much more awareness today, Monday, than before, that things were going on. Of course she told them proudly that I had already bought iodine on Friday (within 6 hours of hearing about the tsunami/nuke problems).

Panic buying? Not at the moment. People are shopping, eating out, going to movies, visiting friends. Let's hope I am being too alarmist.

[gunDriller]

Don't everyone go nuts on this till you find out wich way the wind blows....


but the wind blows in different directions on different days. it's not like it always blows in the same direction.

during the winter, mid-Pacific winds normally blow from Japan towards the US. i've been watching the resulting waves & buoy readings since about 2000.

for example, this is what the waves & winds look like today. Japan is off to the left just out of the picture.
http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/pacne12.gif

i've noticed from watching the buoys that the NOAA charts from which these are derived tend to be about 12 hours off, i.e. the 12 hour chart usually shows what things look like now. also that the 72 hour chart is not trust worthy, it will look like waves are heading towards California and then they will end up shearing off (north towards Vancouver).

but i've never seen the 48 hour chart be wrong. so this is what the waves & wind will look like in about 36 hours - Wednesday morning.

http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/pacne48.gif

one note - just because the wind & waves have a predominant easterly direction does not mean the radiation is heading our way. not until the radiation moves into the region shown by the map - and it has not done that yet.

[Awoke]

As far as I remember, the purpose of Iodine tablets is to basically saturate your thyroid with iodine so that it will not absorb the other irradiated crap, that way your body can process it and you will pee or poo it out.

The Iodine has to be taken internally in order to saturated the thyroid. I don't think tinctures are going to do anything for you.

I will have to talk to some people about this when I get a chance. We have specialists here.

[General of Darkness]

John I found some Prussian Blue, but I'm not sure how music is going to help. :dunno

http://www.micetrap.net/images/Prussian_Blue_We_choose.jpg

[ShortJohnSilver]

GoD , funny enough ... but I mean this kind of Prussian Blue: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prussian_blue

[ShortJohnSilver]

Next worry:

Flight home to NorthEast USA is via Cathay Pacific, Manila - HongKong - USA near end of month.

Issue: if there is radioactivity in the air (if nuke problems worsen) they either can't fly or have to significantly reroute traffic, as you have no shielding when you are in a tin can 35K feet in the air.

Already Chinese airlines and Lufthansa (German) have rerouted planes and will not be using Tokyo anymore until the nuke issue is resolved.

Could be stuck here ... watch for it, as airlines will have the inside scoop - if more airlines refuse to fly to Tokyo or start landing elsewhere, or even stop flying to Japan or other parts of Asia period, that would be an early warning signal.

It is clear to me that TEPCO knew some of these problems would be happening by now, but they said nothing about it.

The fuel rods stored in #4, they knew about it, knew what the prognosis was all along, knew that lack of replacement water would cause problems, but instead have kept the public in the dark. What's next?

[Awoke]

kept the public in the dark. What's next?




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