Mike Maloney - When to Sell Gold & Silver? - When to Buy Real Estate?

[Serpo]

Topics covered include the following:

* when to sell your gold and silver
* when to buy real estate
* when to buy high dividend yielding stocks
* what are some of the measurements GoldSilver uses to evaluate where we are in this great gold and silver bull market of the 21st century



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE7QcVN5tC8&feature=player_embedded#at=252

[Half Sense]

One problem with the Dow/Gold ratio is that the makeup of gold doesn't change over time but the makeup of the Dow certainly does.

The Dow is a list of winners. 18 of the 30 companies in the Dow have been added since 1990, and 7 since 2000. The losers get dropped.

If you compared gold to the original Dow, only GE would be left, and GE is defacto bankrupt. The other original Dow companies were about stuff like railroads, leather, rubber, sugar and tobacco.

[Twisted Titan]

Screw real estate ........if you think it a regulation headache now just wait till all the "reforms' are in place

You will ALWAYS be listed as the TENANT and you will ALWAYS have to pay rent ( property taxes)

Stick with Hard Curreny that you hold ALLODIAL TITLE too.

[Sparky]

Interesting that he presumes an ultimate blow-off top. I agree with that, though I think it's a good idea to continue to hold some even through a blow-off, as insurance.

Do most of us agree there will be a blow-off top? I'll define that as meaning:

1) A 2/3 (67%) increase of price in less than a year, followed by a 1/3 drop within 6 months.
2) An ultimate drop of more than 50% off the top.
3) A 10-year period without making a new high.

For reference, the 1980 blowoff had a tripling of price within a year, a 42% drop in 4 months, an ultimate low of 70% off the top, and 28 years without making a new high.

The 2008 "blow off correction" had a 58% rise, a 35% drop within 6 months, which was the bottom of the correction, and it took only 18 months to make a new high.

[osoab]

Isn't this guy in cahoots with Robert Kiyosaki?

[SLV^GLD]

Lots of articles about selling your silver lately...

[horseshoe3]

One problem with the Dow/Gold ratio is that the makeup of gold doesn't change over time but the makeup of the Dow certainly does.

The Dow is a list of winners. 18 of the 30 companies in the Dow have been added since 1990, and 7 since 2000. The losers get dropped.

If you compared gold to the original Dow, only GE would be left, and GE is defacto bankrupt. The other original Dow companies were about stuff like railroads, leather, rubber, sugar and tobacco.


If you look at it as a group of unrelated companies, then the Dow can pose a problem. If you look at it as a snapshot of the succesful companies at any given time, then it can make a lot of sense as a benchmark.

[Ares]

For reference, the 1980 blowoff had a tripling of price within a year, a 42% drop in 4 months, an ultimate low of 70% off the top, and 28 years without making a new high.

The 2008 "blow off correction" had a 58% rise, a 35% drop within 6 months, which was the bottom of the correction, and it took only 18 months to make a new high.

But for the purpose of full disclosure the only reason there was a "blow off" in PM's in the 80's was because the FED was hiking interest rates to get inflation from the 70's under control. 22% interest rates will do that when you can earn more on your money just by leaving it in the bank and collecting interest.

As for the 2008 Blow off, that just like above was the paper prices for both gold and silver. If you went to eBay or a PM's dealer they were charging a heavy premium for quite a while during the "blow off" that is if you could find it. The paper price may of said 10 dollars an ounce, but I sure didn't pay for that, or could I find it even remotely close to 10 dollars an ounce.

The game is different this time, the JPM silver manipulation desk™ is closed, and you have 1 billion+ Asians buying silver and gold to protect their net worth. Something you didn't have back then either. It may look like the same beast but it certainly feels like a different one.

That's not even touching the subject of the dwindling supply of silver. Even IF and this is a trillion to 1 shot IF the FED decides to hike interest rates up to 10-20%, you still have to contend with the supply of silver that is in the crapper few if any new sources coming on-line.

And no way in HELL would I dump my PM's in real estate so that the state can tax me on it. Not a snowballs chance in hell.

[Uncle Salty]

Interesting that he presumes an ultimate blow-off top. I agree with that, though I think it's a good idea to continue to hold some even through a blow-off, as insurance.

Do most of us agree there will be a blow-off top? I'll define that as meaning:

1) A 2/3 (67%) increase of price in less than a year, followed by a 1/3 drop within 6 months.
2) An ultimate drop of more than 50% off the top.
3) A 10-year period without making a new high.

For reference, the 1980 blowoff had a tripling of price within a year, a 42% drop in 4 months, an ultimate low of 70% off the top, and 28 years without making a new high.

The 2008 "blow off correction" had a 58% rise, a 35% drop within 6 months, which was the bottom of the correction, and it took only 18 months to make a new high.



I'm more of the FOFOA thinking...that gold will become the reserve currency and will maintain its high value. No blow off top. No crash. It will become the store of value function for all money in all currencies.

Hang on to your gold.

[JDRock]

Screw real estate ........if you think it a regulation headache now just wait till all the "reforms' are in place

You will ALWAYS be listed as the TENANT and you will ALWAYS have to pay rent ( property taxes)

Stick with Hard Curreny that you hold ALLODIAL TITLE too.


This is EXACTLY right TT....private ownership of real esate is a myth....it is an impossibility vis a vie the property tax

[Sparky]

...

But for the purpose of full disclosure the only reason there was a "blow off" in PM's in the 80's was because the FED was hiking interest rates to get inflation from the 70's under control. 22% interest rates will do that when you can earn more on your money just by leaving it in the bank and collecting interest.

...


They can do that again, right? Plus, the rate hike explains the price drop, but not the meteoric rise leading up to it.

I think gold will have bubble characteristics, even if it does get re-established as "hard money" for future generations. I could see a blow-off to $3000 or $5000 or $10,000, followed by long stability at some much lower price.

Maloney does make a good point that prices may be meaningless under hyperinflation, i.e. gold could go to $25,000, and settle back to $10,000, but it's tough to know what that means in terms of purchasing power.

[SLV^GLD]

Maloney does make a good point that prices may be meaningless under hyperinflation, i.e. gold could go to $25,000, and settle back to $10,000, but it's tough to know what that means in terms of purchasing power.
That men's suits will run about $10,000?

[Ares]

They can do that again, right? Plus, the rate hike explains the price drop, but not the meteoric rise leading up to it.

Doubtful, the market / economy is now a junky to cheap and easy credit. Any interest rate hikes will be met with serious withdraw. Not to mention the pain being suffered by the wall street junkies to boot. Those rates also have a negative effect on the interest rates we as a nation pay on our treasuries. At 14+ Trillion dollars debt, even a percentage of interest rate hike could cause convulsions. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place and they know it.


I think gold will have bubble characteristics, even if it does get re-established as "hard money" for future generations. I could see a blow-off to $3000 or $5000 or $10,000, followed by long stability at some much lower price.

I don't think it's gold that is having the bubble characteristics but the specie being used to value the gold (i.e. the dollar). The dollar has the hallmarks of being in a bubble. Gold and Silver do not. But in the long run I definitely agree gold will return to value as a monetary asset.


Maloney does make a good point that prices may be meaningless under hyperinflation, i.e. gold could go to $25,000, and settle back to $10,000, but it's tough to know what that means in terms of purchasing power.

Quite true, what's the point of having $25,000 an ounce for gold if gasoline is 300 dollars a gallon, and bread is 100 dollars a loaf?

[keehah]

500oz SILVER TO BUY A HOUSE? Mike Maloney On Gold & Silver vs Real Estate
goldsilverdvd.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAAIwef3dOg

Video dated Nov 2, 2010 but it was filmed even earlier, silver was $15.

Just to share one moment, at 6:50 he mentions: "When gold gets to 1,500 or 2,000 a lot of people are going to be looking over at silver that will be $50 an ounce by then and start buying silver. [The following 'gold' rush] will be the biggest one in history."

[ShortJohnSilver]

Screw real estate ........if you think it a regulation headache now just wait till all the "reforms' are in place

You will ALWAYS be listed as the TENANT and you will ALWAYS have to pay rent ( property taxes)

Stick with Hard Curreny that you hold ALLODIAL TITLE too.


The Rentenmark replaced the German Deutsche Mark. Due to the economic crises in Germany after World War I, there was no gold available to back the currency. Therefore the Rentenbank, which issued the Rentenmark, mortgaged land and industrial goods worth 3.2 billion Rentenmark to back the new currency. The Rentenmark was introduced at a rate 1 Rentenmark = 1012 Deutsche Mark, establishing an exchange rate of 1 United States dollar = 4.2 RM.

Think about it ... what will back the "new USD" when the old one is worth 0.00 real goods?

[Antonio]

Screw real estate ........if you think it a regulation headache now just wait till all the "reforms' are in place

You will ALWAYS be listed as the TENANT and you will ALWAYS have to pay rent ( property taxes)

Stick with Hard Curreny that you hold ALLODIAL TITLE too.


This is EXACTLY right TT....private ownership of real esate is a myth....it is an impossibility vis a vie the property tax

I hear in Muslim countries there is no property tax.

[Cebu_4_2]

I hear in Muslim countries there is no property tax.

Or

N. Korea
Libya
and a few others we are invading

Note these few countries have nothing to do with global banking or usury

[osoab]

I hear in Muslim countries there is no property tax.

Or

N. Korea
Libya
and a few others we are invading

Note these few countries have nothing to do with global banking or usury


Ireland didn't until they got help from the IMF and the EMU.

[Antonio]

Libya and Iraq were fantastic places to live in b4 we invaded them. ZOG only invades countries where leaders share resources with their people instead of letting ZOG plunder them, it`s the simplest thing to understand. Belarus is a phenomenal place and it`s called the last "dictatorship" in Europe.

[goldleaf]

I hope you all are talking about investment real estate, because what would be
wrong with me selling my silver when the price got to where it was enough to pay off
my farm mortgage?

[learn2swim]

I hope you all are talking about investment real estate, because what would be
wrong with me selling my silver when the price got to where it was enough to pay off
my farm mortgage?


Nothing, if you hold on to silver for too long, you won't be paying off much. PMs are just an investment, there's a time to get in, and a time to get out.

[Uncle Salty]

I hope you all are talking about investment real estate, because what would be
wrong with me selling my silver when the price got to where it was enough to pay off
my farm mortgage?


Nothing, if you hold on to silver for too long, you won't be paying off much. PMs are just an investment, there's a time to get in, and a time to get out.


Actually, if you look at history, gold and silver have not been investments, but money. Gold primarily held the storer of value function while silver was the day to day currency. So, in that respect, pm's are not investments historically. It seems we are going to return to those days where they store value as money and are not investments but a stable way of protecting wealth.