Why I am leaving silver for what it is…

[Jazkal]

Why I am leaving silver for what it is…
http://profitimes.com/free-articles/why-i-am-leaving-silver-for-what-it-is

I've read over this article a couple of times. And I understand the reasons given at the beginning of the article of watch out for the silver price when it goes up to fast.

But can some one explain to me why they would draw any connection with the Nasdaq 1998-2000 chart and Silver 2008-2011. What do these have to do with each other? How are they linked, in any way?

Or the crash of '08 compared to the Gold/Silver ratio?

Is there some connection I'm missing here?

[Neuro]

Jazkal the connection between the charts is that they look similar... I think silver will go down too, soon, but the question is whether it will do that now (high of $41.99), or a couple of weeks later at $45-50. I think we can get a last frantic leg up, before summer depression!

[MAGNES]

You should be watching gold, I put up charts for everyone, before the breakout.

GC broke out , SI is following, SI moves far more volatile, we know that from history.

That key resistance that GC broke out of just became very strong support.

SI will land somewhere and will always outperform GC to the topside, history says so.
Same thing to the downside.

Ratios are getting tighter, that has nothing to do with trading and short term moves.

I put some good stuff up here, charts, and nobody comments on them. Nobody contributes.
Except Sparky and one or two other guys.

This place is cheerleader central. The pros are cheerleaders too, I vowed never to get caught up in it.
That was 2006. Fekete was the last straw. At least those cheerleaders had pro analysis.

[Jazkal]

Jazkal the connection between the charts is that they look similar...

Just because they look 'similar' means that they are going to behave the same in the future?

How many stocks or indexes can you pick out some given time frame and just compare to whatever (silver in this case), and then make an argument for what the whatever is going to do in the future?

Is this supposed to be a 'science'? or based on some kind of economical model? I ask because it sounds more like voodoo or wishful thinking than anything else. I ask because I really am interested in finding out if I missed this class somewhere.





I put some good stuff up here, charts, and nobody comments on them. Nobody contributes.
Except Sparky and one or two other guys.

I do like to look at the charts, and listen to the arguments put forth. As you can tell, I'm just not knowledgeable enough to contribute in anyway when it comes to charts. I'd like to learn though.

[Silver Shield]

Why I am leaving silver for what it is…
http://profitimes.com/free-articles/why-i-am-leaving-silver-for-what-it-is

I've read over this article a couple of times. And I understand the reasons given at the beginning of the article of watch out for the silver price when it goes up to fast.

But can some one explain to me why they would draw any connection with the Nasdaq 1998-2000 chart and Silver 2008-2011. What do these have to do with each other? How are they linked, in any way?

Or the crash of '08 compared to the Gold/Silver ratio?

Is there some connection I'm missing here?




http://dont-tread-on.me/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Priceless-.png

[DMac]

You should be watching gold, I put up charts for everyone, before the breakout.

GC broke out , SI is following, SI moves far more volatile, we know that from history.

That key resistance that GC broke out of just became very strong support.

SI will land somewhere and will always outperform GC to the topside, history says so.
Same thing to the downside.

Ratios are getting tighter, that has nothing to do with trading and short term moves.

I put some good stuff up here, charts, and nobody comments on them. Nobody contributes.
Except Sparky and one or two other guys.

This place is cheerleader central. The pros are cheerleaders too, I vowed never to get caught up in it.
That was 2006. Fekete was the last straw. At least those cheerleaders had pro analysis.


I think you are stuck using an old methodology for metal analysis when we have entered a new paradigm. Unless you are trading metals (and if so, follow Turd http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/), the chart analysis does not mean much anymore.

This ain't Kansas anymore.

[BrewTech]

I put some good stuff up here, charts, and nobody comments on them. Nobody contributes.
Except Sparky and one or two other guys.

Like Jaz, I don't know enough about TA to comment or contribute, but I also realize I don't know enough to "cheerlead" much either.

I guess under different circumstances I would be more apt to learn chart analysis, but I just get the feeling that stuff don't matter like it used to. I don't trade (unless forced to) and I'm certainly not interested in taking profits at this point. I just figure metals are gonna do what they are gonna do, and my decision to get me some several years ago was the right thing to do.

Props to Magnes and Sparky, et al, for their technical contributions... I'm sure they are of great value (ha) to those that can understand them.

[MAGNES]

I think you are stuck using an old methodology for metal analysis when we have entered a new paradigm. Unless you are trading metals (and if so, follow Turd http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/), the chart analysis does not mean much anymore.

This ain't Kansas anymore.


:conf:

Gold broke out, something non of u have even mentioned.

I don't follow turd, I have my own teachers I have referred to over and over.

This whole site just talks about silver, the biggest retard gim ever had was that guy
trying to make money off people doing silver analysis. LOL

This is basic analysis, norcini on sinclairs site does some good stuff but I don't care for sinclair anymore.
Just an example of my thinking.

I stated a few times, good luck trading this. I ain't. Just waiting.

http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/ok-silver-seers-show-us-the-future-biatchez!!-)/

[DMac]

I think you are stuck using an old methodology for metal analysis when we have entered a new paradigm. Unless you are trading metals (and if so, follow Turd http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/), the chart analysis does not mean much anymore.

This ain't Kansas anymore.


:conf:

Gold broke out, something non of u have even mentioned.

I don't follow turd, I have my own teachers I have referred to over and over.

That made me big money and they were not wrong about anything.




I've watched the posts you put up with COT and the candle lines for silver. I don't think they are a part of the fundamentals anymore.

You are exactly right that gold broke out. I think silver has led the way as an indicator in this regard. Gold has passed major resistance, a move I think we can all say was pretty much inevitable, and so silver raced ahead of this being the volatile rocket fuel that it is.

I have a lot of respect for Sparky, but I do recall that he has been calling for a major pull back in silver since about 25(?), based on the technicals. I don't think the analysis that worked for 2000-2010 applies anymore.

I don't participate much in the metal analysis because I truly believe we've entered "uncharted" territory.

I have become a hardcore believer in "If you don't hold it you don't own it." So I just wait for the once a month drop to add a little more coin to my stack.

(if you haven't followed tfmetals blog, he has been pretty accurate for months with calling entry an exit points trading metals. but again it is for traders. he was a ZH poster that developed enough of a following to start a daily trading blog.)

[MAGNES]

for their technical contributions... I'm sure they are of great value (ha) to those that can understand them.


It's easy, I have commented on this stuff many times, basic tech is important, the CRIMEX first
of all uses it to their advantage, all the voodoo tech is not important, norcini on sinclairs site always
gives you good stuff at key times, watching GC is key, charting and talking about SI and trading from
that is just dumb, that's not how it is done. The chart broke to the upside, see link, right now you
have very strong seasonal forces, strong GC chart + peak season, these are the 2 most important
issues right now. Good luck trading this, especially SI, anyone trading futures, they will be destroyed
2-3 times faster than before, sub 20 SI. Even buying options, we are way beyond play money now,
good luck, RR, risk reward is not there. My initial comments were about the article, bogus arguments.
I am not trading this, just doing basic commentary on forces.

[MAGNES]

I have become a hardcore believer in "If you don't hold it you don't own it." So I just wait for the once a month drop to add a little more coin to my stack.



I own physical, not a fortune though, I also own a futures account that is multiples where it started,
despite all the mistakes I made and bad calls. Sept was a bad call too, even lost money buying puts,
was looking for a Labor Day special, lol, like before, but it would of been nutz going long given the
information we had at the time, it is easy to say bad call, but in reality it was not bad call given the
information we had and past history with that information. Trading on seasonal forces alone is a
winner especially if there is some serious corrections of the right magnitude during the summer
like past history, what happened this Sept is an anomaly, never in the years going back did it happen.
Trading against this history is foolish. See my comments in above links.

[goldleaf]

Would it be safe to say, " if it was this high once it will get there again"? My son has been contemplating
selling about half his stash making the other half free and clear, still leaving approx. 600oz. He's only 21 and would get back in again on the dips. What would you guys suggest, as I'm still learning here and don't
have much to contribute other than opinions.

[DMac]

Would it be safe to say, " if it was this high once it will get there again"? My son has been contemplating
selling about half his stash making the other half free and clear, still leaving approx. 600oz. He's only 21 and would get back in again on the dips. What would you guys suggest, as I'm still learning here and don't
have much to contribute other than opinions.


Unless he is trading that silver for something else tangible, it is foolish to trade silver for FRNs for some extra cash in the pocket.

I think he would regret his decision.

[Neuro]

Quote from: Neuro on Today at 07:25:30 AM
Jazkal the connection between the charts is that they look similar...
Just because they look 'similar' means that they are going to behave the same in the future?

How many stocks or indexes can you pick out some given time frame and just compare to whatever (silver in this case), and then make an argument for what the whatever is going to do in the future?

Is this supposed to be a 'science'? or based on some kind of economical model? I ask because it sounds more like voodoo or wishful thinking than anything else. I ask because I really am interested in finding out if I missed this class somewhere. Well the silver chart today is a typical exponential increase type of chart, Dutch tulip-mania, DOW late 20's, NASDAQ internetbubble, number of bacterias in a petri-dish, they always end the same way a collapse, and a correction. The only difficult thing to determine is when it is turning...

[Sparky]

TA for silver has always been tough because of it's mercurial nature, and much tougher than gold which has been well-behaved. My TA on silver at $25 was wrong; there have been two modest corrections along the way to $41, but not the big one. I still think there will be a big one and I think it will be this month, again based solely on technicals and not fundamentals.

And that's where the analogy with the Nasdaq breaks down. The author is right to think that parabolic rises very often lead to punishing drops. But the difference between silver 2011 and Nasdaq 2000 is that silver still has the fundamentals. In 2000, the Nasdaq did not.

That's why 2000 Nasdaq was a bull-ending blow-off top, whereas any big hit to silver in the short term is likely to be a consolidating correction that will set the floor for making a move to the next level.

[Shami-Amourae]

Just dropped below $40. Watching the ride down. Wonder how many seconds this will last?
:conf:

[Horn]

Structural deficit plus & endless fiat forecast makes the bottom even more unpredictable.

The only way to keep things "natural" here is with the heavy hand of the "un-natural" to which there may not be much weight behind.

[Neuro]

TA for silver has always been tough because of it's mercurial nature, and much tougher than gold which has been well-behaved. My TA on silver at $25 was wrong; there have been two modest corrections along the way to $41, but not the big one. I still think there will be a big one and I think it will be this month, again based solely on technicals and not fundamentals.

And that's where the analogy with the Nasdaq breaks down. The author is right to think that parabolic rises very often lead to punishing drops. But the difference between silver 2011 and Nasdaq 2000 is that silver still has the fundamentals. In 2000, the Nasdaq did not.

That's why 2000 Nasdaq was a bull-ending blow-off top, whereas any big hit to silver in the short term is likely to be a consolidating correction that will set the floor for making a move to the next level.


I agree, we are not at a level, where POS is unreasonable vs it's usages and historical values, however it has gone up with 120-130% over the last 7-8 months, so we should see a significant correction, soon. If we have a period of financial turmoil ahead of us, I think gold will be king. Don't get me wrong I love silver, and long term it will be a better investment than gold, short term (over the summer) it will not...

[vacuum]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?

Great point. Anyone else agree with this?

[Sparky]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?


If you are into that, then maybe. Some of us just think the whole swapping back and forth thing isn't worth it. Sure, some have gotten it right and it's paid off, but I remember others here swapping gold for silver at 50:1, and then it went to 70:1. And with every swap, there's a transaction cost, unless you have a benevolent dealer willing to swap exactly at the current ratio.

[Sparky]

P.S. And if you do swap here at 36:1, at what ratio do you swap back?

[Jazkal]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?



http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_1_year_b_silver.png?0.11619448957635814


I'm waiting till it at least bounces off the ground first.

[Neuro]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?

Great point. Anyone else agree with this?
Well I do, I exchanged 3.65 kg of silver granule for a 100 g gold bar. Yesterday. Still I have about 10 kg of silver granule left. It is more the fact that silver granule is not a very liquid form of wealth when TSHTF, than a negative outlook on silver that makes me change, although I do think that silver is going to drop in relation to gold over the next months... If the ratio goes down more I will exchange more...

[Serpo]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?

Great point. Anyone else agree with this?


No ,do the opposite................ratio target......10

[Antonio]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?

Great point. Anyone else agree with this?
Well I do, I exchanged 3.65 kg of silver granule for a 100 g gold bar. Yesterday. Still I have about 10 kg of silver granule left. It is more the fact that silver granule is not a very liquid form of wealth when TSHTF, than a negative outlook on silver that makes me change, although I do think that silver is going to drop in relation to gold over the next months... If the ratio goes down more I will exchange more...


Neuro, can you exchange granule for Ag coins and bars? WTSHTF the only thing you can do with granule is fire it from a shotgun. When they first discovered platinum in Siberia in the early 19th century, there was no use for it so they used Pt nuggets as bird shot, it`s much heavier than lead and worked better :o

[Serpo]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?

Great point. Anyone else agree with this?
Well I do, I exchanged 3.65 kg of silver granule for a 100 g gold bar. Yesterday. Still I have about 10 kg of silver granule left. It is more the fact that silver granule is not a very liquid form of wealth when TSHTF, than a negative outlook on silver that makes me change, although I do think that silver is going to drop in relation to gold over the next months... If the ratio goes down more I will exchange more...



Gold is good ,silver can be scary believe me...............

[Antonio]

Gold is good ,silver can be scary believe me...............

I need this thought reinforced in my head because I`ve always been mostly a goldbug and now I`m kicking myself for not having bought more Ag. To me metals have always been associated with total SHTF and needing to run so gold is the answer. Ag demand is mostly industrial.
If the economy prospects are good, PGMs go up due to car sales. Now the economy outlook is bleak, PGMs are not doing good at all and solar panels will drive up the price of Ag.

[Neuro]

With these moves and the ratio as it is, would now not be a good time to convert silver into gold?

Great point. Anyone else agree with this?
Well I do, I exchanged 3.65 kg of silver granule for a 100 g gold bar. Yesterday. Still I have about 10 kg of silver granule left. It is more the fact that silver granule is not a very liquid form of wealth when TSHTF, than a negative outlook on silver that makes me change, although I do think that silver is going to drop in relation to gold over the next months... If the ratio goes down more I will exchange more...


Neuro, can you exchange granule for Ag coins and bars? WTSHTF the only thing you can do with granule is fire it from a shotgun. When they first discovered platinum in Siberia in the early 19th century, there was no use for it so they used Pt nuggets as bird shot, it`s much heavier than lead and worked better :o
No there are no Turkish minted Ag coins and bars, and not much of a market, for it either.

I have apart from the granule about 200-300 oz of junk silver coins, 925 jewelry and table ware, which cannot be easily exchanged, so it is my deep storage silver, either exchanged at a ridiculous low G/S Ratio, or my childrens inheritance...