latest from Jim Willie

[Large Sarge]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/apr282011.html

[mick silver]

The US exporter advantage from a weaker USDollar will not materialize, contrary to the mainstream nonsense that reflect hope more than competent analysis. The economists have lost their credibility after crackpot notions like Green Shoots of economic recovery, like an Exit Strategy from the 0% corner of capital destruction, like the empty label of a Jobless Recovery. Now they have another rotten plank to stand upon that will undermine their credibility further. The central banks have resigned themselves to bring the UDollar down in an orderly manner. They mistakenly believe doing so will stimulate the USEconomy and revive the global economy. Instead, a lower USDollar will lift the entire global economy cost structure and serve to dampen all growth while it leads to starvation in poor nations. They expect the US export trade to pick up and lead the economic recovery. They are mistaken. First of all, the US industry lacks critical mass after decades of dispatch of factories to Asia. The start was the electronics departure to the Pacific Rim in the 1980 decade. The climax was the grand industrial buildup in China with Western investment funds, mostly American. The USEconomy lacks sufficient industry to take advantage of export growth. Secondly, many legitimate industrial advantages are in the possession of companies whose products are widely banned for export. See the advanced computer systems, the advanced telecommunications systems, even some advanced bioengineering systems. They fall under the province of national security. Lastly, a much more engrained cancer will affect the few American exporters that can attempt to exploit a lower USDollar exchange rate. It is the cancer of rising costs