Capping Silver, Massive Volume Price Drops

[MAGNES]

http://i56.tinypic.com/nntclt.gif

http://i51.tinypic.com/2mn1yxu.gif

This reminds me of the good old days, huge drops in Asia and overnight.

Twice the kitco charts were wrong totally, they showed drops that never happened,
but they foreshadowed big drops.

GOLD, is still very strong and at new high last week.

I believed they would fight $50 SI but last 2 weeks they were letting it ride,
much stronger than GC, GC even went sideways a couple of times and SI
made $2.00 gains, that was at the 1500 mark, 45 SI, SI then popped big
and was deflated. Since then GC rocketed 60 bucks and SI had modest gains.

I thought SI would rock past $60 the way it was moving.

Friday closed at an all time high for Gold.

Very noticeable divergence of charts SI vs GC .
Then we got the smack.

-----------------------------------------

THESE DROPS ARE REAL

SIM11 JUN 2011 43.685 -4.906 43.55 43.755 48.165 42.19 921 938

Volumes don't seem like much but overseas markets are open as well, they will open below stops and
burn everyone. Trinity says Asians markets are closed, we still have London coming.

I will post volumes from later tonight and compare with the extraordinary volumes from the pop we had.

The volumes are important, the turnover is incredible when something key happens.

So it is easy for them to go long and short 10 K contracts and make $ 5 bucks a move now.

The CRIMEX shorts are still playing the same game , just at a different level.
------------------------------------------

UPDATE AS PROMISED LATE NIGHT MASSIVE VOLUME TRADED 12:45 AM MAY 2ND 2011

http://i55.tinypic.com/2whqgs4.jpg

GOLD IS GOOD VOLUME, COMPARE

http://i53.tinypic.com/24ypnjs.jpg

MATCHING PERIOD

http://i55.tinypic.com/wtdtn4.gif

http://i55.tinypic.com/izosvd.gif

[MAGNES]

Watch gold is still most important, it is not really moving.

My target is 1590, posting about that for a while.

What is happening right now is like past history, take down operations.
It may go back up fast to 48 and gold may move forward as well.

The crimex does make big money doing this, on take downs.
They will make more withe absolute amounts bigger, this drop was like
a past 1-1.50 drop, we saw lots of those Sunday Night, Monday early morning.
Even 2.00 drops in NY after that.

Don't forget all the overseas markets and longs they burn there, it is not just NY.
Japan was just one of those markets, TOCOM where GS goldman sachs was very
active manipulating gold, but it is transparent COT daily, so they left cause they
were being watched carefully by the COT masters at LeMetro.

The best thing that can happen is GC correcting 30-35% in summer months.

SI will be $20 .

--------------------------

Good Charts and good issues.

Parabolic Blow-off In Silver, Gold Price Steady
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/handwerger042711.html

CME Margin Cold Water for Red Hot Silver
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/04/cme-margin-cold-water-for-red-hot-silver.html#more

Apparently the Big Sellers have been racking up very large net losses with their legacy net short positioning, or they have been “rolling up” by closing out existing short positions and redeploying on up the price ladder in the hopes of catching a top, because otherwise the LCNS would be getting larger if they were simply adding to short positions or it would be getting appreciably smaller if they were doing more covering than new selling. We find it amazing and perhaps a little bizarre that there has been so little change in the amount of commercial net short positioning or for that matter in the silver futures open interest as silver ran up through the $20s, the $30s and now the $40s.

[ this would be very easy to do considering the massive volumes involved, anomalies from history ]
[ LCNS looked at without complete COT, and compare matching periods historically, Price, COT,
interday charts for SI is good, weekly COT chart, same ending period. ]



Some COT and Volume discussion with charts. (http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/ok-silver-seers-show-us-the-future-biatchez%21%21-%29/msg210255/#msg210255)
100 K - 200 K VOLUMES vs Normal 30 K.
http://i54.tinypic.com/fpcegw.jpg

[YukonCornelius]

That doesn't look suspicious...even that won't stop silver.

[Serpo]

minus$5 just like that.............

[SilverMagnet]

How many of you have shit your pants yet?

[1970 silver art]

The DOG is getting it's ass beat. This should not unexpected since it ran up so far too fast. This is it right here. It was bound to happen.

[SilverMagnet]

The DOG is getting it's ass beat. This should not unexpected since it ran up so far too fast. This is it right here. It was bound to happen.


We will see how loud you bark when it bounces back up.

[Neuro]

How many of you have shit your pants yet?
LOL, shit happens! Amazing!

[mick silver]

premium are already 5 bucks

[1970 silver art]

The DOG is getting it's ass beat. This should not unexpected since it ran up so far too fast. This is it right here. It was bound to happen.


We will see how loud you bark when it bounces back up.


:ROFL:

IF it bounces back up. It looks like silver will break $40 on the downside and it will be much sooner than expected. Like I said, silver will NOT hit $50 this year. Just get your popcorn ready because it is going to be a wild show on the way down. ;D

[Silver Shield]

I just checked my stack...
It looks the same to me.




Now we will see a $5 up day.

[Neuro]

Seems Blythe is not dead yet...

[mick silver]

2011 1 oz Silver American Eagle (May 13th)

As low as $5.49 per coin over spot! These items are on a slight delay. We expect to be able to ship these items by May 13th

1 - 19 $50.62 $52.14
20 - 99 $50.12 $51.62
100 - 499 $49.62 $51.11
500 or more $49.12 $50.59

[mick silver]

i buy all when it cheap . i have boxes of eagle when you could buy them at a fair price .

[1970 silver art]

2011 1 oz Silver American Eagle (May 13th)

As low as $5.49 per coin over spot! These items are on a slight delay. We expect to be able to ship these items by May 13th



No wonder APMEX was emialing everyone wanting their silver at above spot buy price.

Buy bars, rounds, or junk Mick.

I love Eagles, but no way at that premium.


That premium is going to increase from there since spot silver is going to get smacked down some more. It looks like this is going to be 2008 all over again.

EDIT: Silver down $5.11 as I type this.

[MAGNES]

The DOG is getting it's ass beat. This should not unexpected since it ran up so far too fast. This is it right here. It was bound to happen.


I thought they would sit on 50 then quickly changed my mind the way it was moving.
comparing it to gold movements I thought it would rock past 60, this friday was bad
news for that, 50 is big psychological and new high territory, seems they do want to
sit on it at 50.

So Ponce owes you 3 skids of toilet paper, that's a pretty good score.

$20 is good news, that's the new $7 back up the truck. They said $7 will never come.
The concrete floor was 16 and it came, 7.75 .

Regression to the mean, in this case means rocking past 50 in the future.
The drops are an artificially created anomaly and a freebie to go long.

[mick silver]

5.09 down there just scaring the weak hands out

[Olmstein]

$20 is good news, that's the new $7 back up the truck.


That made me LOL. GIMemories.

[1970 silver art]

The DOG is getting it's ass beat. This should not unexpected since it ran up so far too fast. This is it right here. It was bound to happen.


I thought they would sit on 50 then quickly changed my mind the way it was moving.
comparing it to gold movements I thought it would rock past 60, this friday was bad
news for that, 50 is big psychological and new high territory, seems they do want to
sit on it at 50.

So Ponce owes you 3 skids of toilet paper, that's a pretty good score.

$20 is good news, that's the new $7 back up the truck. They said $7 will never come.
The concrete floor was 16 and it came, 7.75 .

Regression to the mean, in this case means rocking past 50 in the future.
The drops are an artificially created anomaly and a freebie to go long.


MAGNES, so far I am winning the bet with Ponce but it is not over yet since the year is not over yet. When this year ends with silver NOT hitting $50, then I will officially win the bet. $49.85 is the silver high that you will see for this year. It will not get any higher than $49.85 in 2011. I just knew that they were not going to let silver hit $50. They were not going to allow $50 silver to happen and when it got too close to $50, then they shot it down with their naked silver shorts.

[Ponce]

"A bump on the road is not the end of the road"... Ponce

Like I posted before, I can see a $10.00 drop because silver went up to fast.....the coat and ties are making and taking their profits.

[Trinity]

5.09 down there just scaring the weak hands out


Agree, the same old same old boring stuff. In fact I'm going to switch gears and go check some sports highlights for awhile and will check back in on the spot price later tonight.

[Serpo]

How long can they keep this baby below 50$..................

[FunnyMoney]

They have done it for 31 years and counting. ;D


History in the making. They have only a few more days left.

After that to within striking distance of $100 by year end.

[Trinity]

Hong Kong,China and other asian markets are closed moday, just an FYI so no real metal markets have opened yet.

[Serpo]

In early trading, silver is down nearly 20% from Friday highs, and just under 15% from its Friday closing fixing, hitting just over $42 in a slide of $6 commencing just after 18:25 pm. The reason for the collapse is not immediately clear, although concerns of a Chinese slowdown and overtightening are rumored to have been among the culrpits. The circumstantial evidence is in the OZ pairs, with the AUDUSD which has long been a high beta proxy for China plunging in early trading as well. Oddly enough, gold has been spared most of the carnage in silver, and was down about 1% in early trading. Overall, this appears to be nothing more than a short covering episode in the USd provoked by nothing factual. We will keep an ear open for any incremental data to determine if there is any actual reason for the plunge, such as for example that the BOJ has suddenly decided not to pick up the baton in trillions of monetizations over the next few months, instead of just another bout of technical selling.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-plunges-china-slowdown-concerns-dollar-short-covering

[SLV^GLD]

AS accurate as Art's calls have been I think he underestimates what silver seasonally does around Oct-Nov relative to where silver was sitting right before May. I do believe we will see $50 silver in 2011, however my official call made several moths ago was that silver would break $50 by March of 2012 and I am positive that will take place. I do not gamble, however.

[1970 silver art]

AS accurate as Art's calls have been I think he underestimates what silver seasonally does around Oct-Nov relative to where silver was sitting right before May. I do believe we will see $50 silver in 2011, however my official call made several moths ago was that silver would break $50 by March of 2012 and I am positive that will take place. I do not gamble, however.


I think that once silver revisits the lows reached earlier this year ($26?) then I think that silver will recover from those lows but I do not think that it will recover enough to hit $50 this year. Even if silver manages to recover all the way back to the $49 range, then it will just get smacked down like before. No $50 silver this year.

[PatColo]

looks like this smack took place over about 10 mins time, from ~$48 down to ~$42, or down 12%

funny how gold made new highs at the open, while silver was frozen. Now gold's down < 1%, while silver's down > 8%

one-minute price bars:

[wrs]

Hey guys, there were 30,810 call options excercised on Tuesday for silver worth a total of $1.5B. The close on Tuesday was $45.

Notice that is where the bounce back has taken us. This little dip is absolutely a head fake. The option overhang in gold and silver is just destroying the COMEX shorts. In gold the current overhang is 101,150 contracts. 26,100 options in gold were exercised on Tuesday with a gold close of $1505. Right now, all those options are now long contracts for the front month and are deep in the money. The cheapest ones are worth $4000 even with this smack down.

This is just a stupid cheap trick and it's not going to work, these people are buried and the best thing they can do is to start covering their losses before they get even deeper. Naked shorting is just making the problem worse.

[Mad_Max]

Late night statement from Obummer over this? ;D

[Horn]

This is just a stupid cheap trick and it's not going to work, these people are buried and the best thing they can do is to start covering their losses before they get even deeper. Naked shorting is just making the problem worse.


Could be what it needed to propel it past 50 for sure.

The old sell in May has been early June as of late.

[mamboni]

No impact on the physical market. SAEs still selling for $52-55 on Ebay. APMEX asking for $6 premium over spot on common date SAEs and they are conveniently out of stock on most dates. Paper market is totally bogus. This looks to be an effort to flsuh out the specs and try to slow silver down. The physical market will be leading the way.

[mick silver]

that what i said doc but you say it better

[mamboni]

that what i said doc but you say it better


You said it just fine - 10-4 buddy!

and now a word from Jesse:

01 May 2011

Portrait of Desperation


The Comex is facing a default, and the powers that be are very nervous since it involves at least one of the TBTF monstrosities.

Shock and awe in the thin Sunday night trade, running the stops of the new futures holders whose options were filled. Even more heavy handed and blatant than usual.

Run it up, and then smack it back down.

Take a letter, Ted...

Oh, and by the way Blythe, skip the histrionics. Stand and Deliver.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ha8ZqgH4TX4/Tb3-OiwXOFI/AAAAAAAAQno/Ie2TlU52v3k/s640/1984b

Paper good, metal bad. Paper good, metal bad.


http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

[MAGNES]

Remember last week was the exact opposite. Pop .

Some massive volumes as well, very unusual.

This is just a rough account late night Sunday, early Monday 12 AM EST.

33 K vs 45 K OI front month, next month 16 K vs 40 K OI. (http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/1500-24926/msg218648/#msg218648)

GOLD BARELY MOVED , SI GOT HAMMERED

http://i52.tinypic.com/29w4a46.gif

http://i54.tinypic.com/5vncdt.gif

[wrs]

Gold and silver shorts from last night are feeling some pain this morning. Same is true for those that shorted miners on the open.

[MAGNES]

UPDATED THREAD, First post is updated too and others.

Massive Volumes in Sunday Night trading.

They can easily manipulate this market both sides,
the same way they were doing all these years,
make more money, COT still involved, I posted
others thoughts as well on this. These volumes
as well, not just last two major battles at $50
but the volumes on the day charts going back
to SI breaking highs in Sept, where SI volume
is very high compared to OI even at some points
more than OI for the day, which is extraordinary
and unusual, anomalies to this history all these
years. Lots can happen that we will never see,
interweek.

Just on the last 2 pops up and down from $50,
10 K contracts long and short plays @5.00 move
is $500 million, two weeks in row, $1 billion.

Have a close look of the volumes and prices, at low volume
prices are way down, at very high volumes prices go sideways.
Cap and close out. Keep doing it, like the article I posted
explains.

SI $42 low at 1 K contracts early in evening,
47 K contracts only a few hours later at roughly $44 avg.

http://i55.tinypic.com/2whqgs4.jpg


OVERALL SHORTS, some closing out from last weekend, blow off top.
This once meant the beginning of major correction, but May is usually
strong, they may be buying themselves some breathing room for higher
price capping.

SHORTS 40 - 60 K range. 200-300 Oz on COMEX alone.

http://i55.tinypic.com/n1xlqv.png

[BrewTech]

How many of you have shit your pants yet?


Not me... '08 cleaned me out! I'm just getting farts to this day.

;D

[MAGNES]

GOLD IS NOT REALLY MOVING LIKE SILVER, the bullish SI trend was reversed.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2jezlp0.gif

http://i54.tinypic.com/2hmohme.gif



MASSIVE VOLUMES, TUESDAY MAY 3rd 2011

CREDIT TO OSOAB


http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

It was the daily settlement now.


Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated Prior Day
Volume Open Interest

MAY 11 43.895 45.445B 40.845 - -3.502 42.576 1,666 1,052
JUN 11 44.060 45.565 40.615 - -3.500 42.580 6,142 832
JLY 11 44.030 45.600 40.600 - -3.499 42.585 160,988 78,417
SEP 11 43.915 45.530B 40.750 - -3.500 42.597 2,217 10,618
DEC 11 43.870 45.550 40.750 43.200 -3.501 42.600 5,653 18,552
JAN 12 41.515 41.710 41.515 - -3.502 42.583 9 110
MAR 12 43.555 43.855 40.725 - -3.507 42.552 364 2,316
MAY 12 43.100 43.100 41.380 - -3.515 42.502 65 843
JLY 12 44.795 45.215 41.720 - -3.525 42.454 292 1,734
SEP 12 - - - - -3.534 42.384 - 7
DEC 12 43.800 44.945 40.530 - -3.545 42.296 384 7,421
JAN 13 - - - - -3.565 42.259 - 1
MAR 13 - - - - -3.605 42.176 - -
JLY 13 45.000 45.000 45.000 - -3.647 42.040 10 2,239
DEC 13 44.185 44.185 40.250 - -3.673 41.920 21 5,007
JLY 14 - - - - -3.718 41.739 - 193
DEC 14 40.660 40.660 40.065 - -3.752 41.600 63 783
JLY 15 40.000 40.000 40.000 - -3.762 41.465 1 90

VOLUME CHART, from link in first post, for comparison, big volumes at key points.
http://i54.tinypic.com/fpcegw.jpg

[Book]

Massive Volumes in Sunday Night trading.



http://www.theosamaobama.com/osama_obama.jpg

Coincidence?

:D

[MAGNES]

Massive volumes come at blow off tops and bottoms.

Volume is just one thing to look at, in this rigged market it means more though.

Who are the traders, where are the trades ? We don't have complete info but can
look at the wider brush spokes.

I documented this for the two days one week apart in overnight trading, just at $50
mark. They dropped it hard.

NOV 2010
The chart I posted has this, short term correction, from key number $30, 15 % off roughly,
over 200 K contracts were traded, have a close look at the chart, many many days of very
high volume as well, consider average volumes of 30 K, compare to older historical charts.

So now we have another another massive volume day down, is this an intermediate bottom ?
GC is not really moving. Can go either way from here, so SI may get rocked some more or
we may be knocking on $50 again,

$1500 gold is key to watch, support would be strong.
Overnight take downs, strong NY, would give this away,
that was the past history anyways. Even $1400 GC is still
a very strong bullish chart, massive wall of support, where
will SI land, looks like they will crush it.

[MAGNES]

To all those that had contributions, thank you, much appreciated.

I will be updating this thread as we move forward on important days.

I want to keep this thread tight and jam packed with charts + .

[Son-of-Liberty]

I am still learning all this stuff so have litle to contribute but thanks for the thread Magnes.

[MAGNES]

I am


I am documenting this for myself too, I have lots of folders doing my own studies
at key moments, days, etc, going back to 2006. This is my new Crimex Shorts thread.

The main thing we are trying to show is the market is totally manipulated
and there will be many opportunities to buy and go long.

Zeal school, wait for 30 % GC correction, other stars lining up, seasonals,
that means summer lows, charts looking good, a blow off bottom inter day
as a bonus, COT chart confirmation, used to be COT highs in OI and shorts
corresponded 1:1 with highs and lows in SI, not since Sept though. If they
all line up like past years it is good opportunity to go long term swing trade
with great confidence on SI which is far more volatile and room for profits.

The anomaly we are studying now with these massive volumes since
then. Crimex is still in operation and will be so till the end. The end ain't here.
Same operations at a different level. So wait for it, if it does not come fine,
they said that in 2008, I lost some money last couple of years buying puts,
no more of that but will wait for good opportunity to go long. Never have
I been caught holding the bag. Early June may be good time too for trades.
Not now.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Don't have the time or knowledge at this point to trade the market but am always keen to find good entry points to add to my physical stash. That is if there is any available.

[SLV^GLD]

WTH is GC? That would help a shit ton.

[Libertytree]

Magnes, I really just want to say publicly that I thank you for these posts. I try and learn all I can from them but I'm a terrible chart reader and the jargon slows me up, I get the gist of what you're explaining but my level of knowledge ain't suited for offering opinions in this context. I don't think I'm the only one in this boat either, from the regulars to the lurkers and I believe I speak for us all. Sometimes I wish there was a dummies book for this stuff just so I'd have a helpful list of acronyms ;D

[MAGNES]

WTH is GC? That would help a shit ton.


Gold has lots of different tickers depending on where.
GC is the ticker for gold in futures market. Probably stands for Gold Comex.
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/

We are comparing gold and silver, silver is following gold, not other way around.
Day charts, inter day charts, volume, and cot. Simple, this is seasonal high period.

There may be a good opportunity for a long term swing trade coming, we wait.

[MAGNES]

Thanks for moving it John, I am going to stay in here from now on, follow rules, 8)

[Son-of-Liberty]

Noticed the tread was moved. Does the subscription still work when that happens? (I know it will work now cause I just posted again :D)

[MAGNES]

WED MAY 2011
CREDIT TO OSOAB, another incredible volume day.


Today's volume posted as of now. (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html)


Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated Prior Day
Volume Open Interest

MAY 11 41.500 42.255 38.980 - -3.193 39.383 984 692
JUN 11 41.555 42.300 38.955 - -3.193 39.387 7,341 814
JLY 11 41.665 42.325 38.940 39.340 -3.197 39.388 160,360 77,868
SEP 11 41.650 42.330 38.990 39.950 -3.201 39.396 2,994 10,571
DEC 11 41.670 42.315 38.980 - -3.204 39.396 4,274 20,545
JAN 12 41.620 41.620 40.500 - -3.210 39.373 4 104I updated the blue numbers. about another 1000 contracts were added to volume.



JLY 11 41.665 42.325 38.940 39.340 -3.197 39.388 160,360 77,868

http://i53.tinypic.com/1zzqt09.gif
http://i51.tinypic.com/25q4oeu.gif

[MAGNES]

MORE MASSIVE VOLUMES, THURSDAY MAY 5 2011

Key here is OI is basically standing still, means just as many contracts closing as opening.
Turnover is incredible and volume is 6 X normal, multiples of OI. Day after day.

VOLUME OPEN INTEREST
JLY 11 39.200 39.565 34.250 36.800 -3.148 36.240 194,318 75,089
Total ALL MONTHS 226,412 130,525
http://i54.tinypic.com/23utn5s.gif
http://i55.tinypic.com/zvygye.gif

[kiffertom]

just remember central banks buy and sell gold not silver. after that big drop ill wait till its in the 20's.