Holy $hit Folks, silver default in progress?

[Large Sarge]

checkout the insane volume for silver futures on July 2011!

OMG!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html

this guy claims it tripled in a couple hours, upto 133,000


https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=82410

well now its over 156,000 and climbing!!!

[Large Sarge]

if my math is correct

each contract is 5,000 ounces * 156,000 = 780,000,000 ounces of silver

[Son-of-Liberty]

Holy crap!!!!!!



Could this be a mistake?

[Large Sarge]

if my math is correct

each contract is 5,000 ounces * 156,000 = 780,000,000 ounces of silver






anyone got 780 million ounces of silver?

;D :D

[Serpo]

if my math is correct

each contract is 5,000 ounces * 156,000 = 780,000,000 ounces of silver






anyone got 780 million ounces of silver?

;D :D


Ask Ponce ;D

[osoab]

I get nothing on the link.

Did they switch to the next day?

[Large Sarge]

Comex Silver hits record low

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-decline-registered-silver-brings-total-comex-physical-multi-year-lows

[Large Sarge]

I get nothing on the link.

Did they switch to the next day?


yes I have it opened on my PC

I am unsure how to laod the screenshot onto this thread?

[osoab]

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

It was the daily settlement now.


Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated Prior Day
Volume Open Interest

MAY 11 43.895 45.445B 40.845 - -3.502 42.576 1,666 1,052
JUN 11 44.060 45.565 40.615 - -3.500 42.580 6,142 832
JLY 11 44.030 45.600 40.600 - -3.499 42.585 160,988 78,417
SEP 11 43.915 45.530B 40.750 - -3.500 42.597 2,217 10,618
DEC 11 43.870 45.550 40.750 43.200 -3.501 42.600 5,653 18,552
JAN 12 41.515 41.710 41.515 - -3.502 42.583 9 110
MAR 12 43.555 43.855 40.725 - -3.507 42.552 364 2,316
MAY 12 43.100 43.100 41.380 - -3.515 42.502 65 843
JLY 12 44.795 45.215 41.720 - -3.525 42.454 292 1,734
SEP 12 - - - - -3.534 42.384 - 7
DEC 12 43.800 44.945 40.530 - -3.545 42.296 384 7,421
JAN 13 - - - - -3.565 42.259 - 1
MAR 13 - - - - -3.605 42.176 - -
JLY 13 45.000 45.000 45.000 - -3.647 42.040 10 2,239
DEC 13 44.185 44.185 40.250 - -3.673 41.920 21 5,007
JLY 14 - - - - -3.718 41.739 - 193
DEC 14 40.660 40.660 40.065 - -3.752 41.600 63 783
JLY 15 40.000 40.000 40.000 - -3.762 41.465 1 90

[Large Sarge]

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

It was the daily settlement now.


Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated Prior Day
Volume Open Interest

MAY 11 43.895 45.445B 40.845 - -3.502 42.576 1,666 1,052
JUN 11 44.060 45.565 40.615 - -3.500 42.580 6,142 832
JLY 11 44.030 45.600 40.600 - -3.499 42.585 160,988 78,417
SEP 11 43.915 45.530B 40.750 - -3.500 42.597 2,217 10,618
DEC 11 43.870 45.550 40.750 43.200 -3.501 42.600 5,653 18,552
JAN 12 41.515 41.710 41.515 - -3.502 42.583 9 110
MAR 12 43.555 43.855 40.725 - -3.507 42.552 364 2,316
MAY 12 43.100 43.100 41.380 - -3.515 42.502 65 843
JLY 12 44.795 45.215 41.720 - -3.525 42.454 292 1,734
SEP 12 - - - - -3.534 42.384 - 7
DEC 12 43.800 44.945 40.530 - -3.545 42.296 384 7,421
JAN 13 - - - - -3.565 42.259 - 1
MAR 13 - - - - -3.605 42.176 - -
JLY 13 45.000 45.000 45.000 - -3.647 42.040 10 2,239
DEC 13 44.185 44.185 40.250 - -3.673 41.920 21 5,007
JLY 14 - - - - -3.718 41.739 - 193
DEC 14 40.660 40.660 40.065 - -3.752 41.600 63 783
JLY 15 40.000 40.000 40.000 - -3.762 41.465 1 90


its up another 5,000 contracts from when I found it, well HOLY $HIT!

what will it be by the morning!!!

OMG

[osoab]

Isn't the just the number of contracts trading hands and not actual holdings. I think we will have to wait for the OI that is reported tomorrow.

What does the 78,000 open contracts mean? Is that the number currently standing for delivery in July?

[Large Sarge]

someone might want to tell 1970 silver art, get that TP ready......

Silver is going to blow way past $50.00

LOL


;D ;D ;D

special delivery coming your way Ponce


Ponce, I think you should just forward all that TP to J.P. Morgan, a bunch of those guys just $hit their pants (I promise you)

;D

[Serpo]

That is one BIG number

[Large Sarge]

Isn't the just the number of contracts trading hands and not actual holdings. I think we will have to wait for the OI that is reported tomorrow.

What does the 78,000 open contracts mean? Is that the number currently standing for delivery in July?


compare the volume with all the other months

its not even close

you get a few months around 5,000 (thats the biggest by far)

then you have July,

none of that adds up, plus COMEX inventories are at record low levels.....



edit add,

silver is in backwardation until 2015

[ximmy]

I do not think it means what you think it means.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2y8Sx4B2Sk

[Serpo]

And for those who enjoy seeing long-term charts below, courtesy of 24 hour gold, is a long-term chart showing Registered silver inventories at the Comex. It kinda speaks for itself.http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-decline-registered-silver-brings-total-comex-physical-multi-year-lows

[Large Sarge]

so how do they handle it?

close the exchange/bank holiday?

revalue silver way higher (defacto devaluation of the dollar), also hoping to call in grammas silverware? (like maybe $150.00 per ounce)

see if the market stabilizes.

if not?

I think this is real, you got to many things lining up....

[Large Sarge]

add this to the equation

this is with 3 margin hikes for silver in a week!!!


HOLY $HIT!!!

[Son-of-Liberty]

add this to the equation

this is with 3 margin hikes for silver in a week!!!


HOLY $HIT!!!




Good point wouldn't make sense that this is just speculation with all those hikes recently.

Any way to tell if they are calls or puts? Seems someone knows something we don't know yet.

[Uncle Salty]

No default. Most of those contracts will get rolled over or accept a cash settlement, just like they always do.

[Large Sarge]

good article here

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/three-times-in-five-days.html

[MAGNES]

checkout the insane volume for silver futures on July 2011!

OMG!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html

this guy claims it tripled in a couple hours, upto 133,000


https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=82410

well now its over 156,000 and climbing!!!




THIS IS NOT NEW, first of all. Sarge, you haven't been reading my posts.

I have been talking about these insane volumes for a long time now,
since silver was breaking out in Sept actually. I posted charts too,
recently and also found only one site doing consolidated volume.

This has everything to do with manipulation and CRIMEX SHORTS.

This does not mean there will be a default, quite the opposite actually.
They can do whatever they want with the price and postpone default.

Capping Silver, Massive Volume Price Drops (http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/capping-silver-first-blatant-day/)

[MAGNES]

[ this would be very easy to do considering the massive volumes involved, anomalies from history ]

Some COT and Volume discussion with charts. (http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/ok-silver-seers-show-us-the-future-biatchez!!-)/msg210255/#msg210255)

Nobody helped me find better consolidated volume charts.

ANYBODY ?

[Large Sarge]

checkout the insane volume for silver futures on July 2011!

OMG!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html

this guy claims it tripled in a couple hours, upto 133,000


https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=82410

well now its over 156,000 and climbing!!!




THIS IS NOT NEW, first of all. Sarge, you haven't been reading my posts.

I have been talking about these insane volumes for a long time now,
since silver was breaking out in Sept actually. I posted charts too,
recently and also found only one site doing consolidated volume.

This has everything to do with manipulation and CRIMEX SHORTS.

This does not mean there will be a default, quite the opposite actually.
They can do whatever they want with the price and postpone default.

Capping Silver, Massive Volume Price Drops (http://gold-silver.us/forum/general-discussion/capping-silver-first-blatant-day/)


Magnes,

you may be correct, and if so "kudos to you"

but I tend to look at "big picture stuff"

1. record low inventories for comex
2. silver in backwardation until 2015
3. an insane volume by most standards
4. 3 margin hikes in 5 days (see article above)
5. about a week ago we had 20% of Comex inventory disappear overnight
etc
etc

its everything together.

you get 1 or 2 things, you shrug it off....

you start seeing all these things happening at once, and it makes me pause ....

I cannot remember 3 margin hikes in 5 days for anything? (maybe sinclair can)

[MAGNES]

The margin hikes at this point are nothing, the leverage is 3 X what is was recently due to price explosion.

Highs in margin in past one summer were 14 K and SI was sub 20 .

That would be the equivalent of high 30 K at this point, for opening contract.

The leverage works in the CRIMEX favor, they are able to wash out faster, more,
and make more money.

Just playing with 10 K contracts last two moves to 50 they easily made $1 billion.

The blowoff top was nothing new, that is what happens at highs lows, etc,
it came, 2 hard wacks even though GC was strong, GC is still strong, SI is
getting taken down, these are not S/D forces.

[Large Sarge]

No default. Most of those contracts will get rolled over or accept a cash settlement, just like they always do.




COMEX inventory keeps dropping, see chart above

[Large Sarge]

the silver bears (video from zero hedge) say we will now have 2 prices for silver, paper price, and dealer price.

Jason Hommels "silver stock update" (from about 2 days ago), confirmed what the silver bears are saying

he flat out said all his margins and spreads are growing by leaps and bounds

Comex is supposed to be about price discovery, but for silver that has not been the case for a long time

[MAGNES]

No default. Most of those contracts will get rolled over or accept a cash settlement, just like they always do.




COMEX inventory keeps dropping, see chart above



Been watching inventory since 2006, they are always having a default.

We have been here many times, the calls to default. I boldly said drops,
and they came. You will see that this summer, GC isn't even down today.
Wait till they drop GC, I will be making other calls like 2008, free money.
Sarge, you have seen and been part of this discussion.

Short of a flat out default metals default overnight like we had on LME.

Nothing is going to happen for default.

Remember SIL, who stoled the company ? The largest metals SI in ground on the planet.
A Japanese company sold them bonds, short term cash flow problems, the company disappeared
to the bond holders. JPM/FED Jews own metals in ground, why would they not, we do,
own physical, why would they not, knowing with a few bucks, small change they can
prolong their major FED ponzi scheme and bleed everyone to death slowly. Just thinking
out loud. There will be no blatant default, and when it comes they will be making big money,
not just metals pits, the metals pits are nothing, by controlling SI , contracts of all kinds
everywhere. When a blatant default comes for all to see it will be the end. That too will be
planned and they will have a reason for it. That is the control and corruption I believe exists.
And all these years I been trading on that, long term swing trades going long whole account,
not on SI S/D but on total belief of total rigging and corruption of market, summer lows being
totally manufactured short term events.

[sirgonzo420]

the silver bears (video from zero hedge) say we will now have 2 prices for silver, paper price, and dealer price.

Jason Hommels "silver stock update" (from about 2 days ago), confirmed what the silver bears are saying

he flat out said all his margins and spreads are growing by leaps and bounds

Comex is supposed to be about price discovery, but for silver that has not been the case for a long time






yeah, but wouldn't many dealers buy by the paper price, and sell for the "dealer price"?

[Ponce]

First of all, if I were to tell you how much actual physical silver I hold I know that you would make fun of me, but of course those 150 10 oz bars that I found does help a little.

As I keep on saying....."A bump on the road is not the end of the road"... Ponce, and that's all that we are having now......like on a trampoling the harder that you push down the higher that you will go up.

I really don't look at silver for its monetary value but rather as a replacement for the dollar and that in itself will push the price way up, of course if it is use it for its industrial value then that means that there will be less physical silver which in turn will make the value of the new silver-dollar that much higher... is a win win situation all the way around........it will now go up.

[Large Sarge]

No default. Most of those contracts will get rolled over or accept a cash settlement, just like they always do.




COMEX inventory keeps dropping, see chart above



Been watching inventory since 2006, they are always having a default.

Short of a flat out default metals default overnight like we had on LME.

Nothing is going to happen for default.

Remember SIL, who stoled the company ? The largest metals SI in ground on the planet.
A Japanese company sold them bonds, short term cash flow problems, the company disappeared
to the bond holders. JPM/FED Jews own metals in ground, why would they not, we do,
own physical, why would they not, knowing with a few bucks, small change they can
prolong their major FED ponzi scheme and bleed everyone to death slowly. Just thinking
out loud. There will be no blatant default, and when it comes they will be making big money,
not just metals pits, the metals pits are nothing, by controlling SI , contracts of all kinds
everywhere. When a blatant default comes for all to see it will be the end.


silver backwardation doubled a couple days ago, and of course there was no backwardation in 2006
(and its in backwardation for the next 4 years)
not doubting your prowess Magnes

just a lot of things lining up....

[Large Sarge]

the silver bears (video from zero hedge) say we will now have 2 prices for silver, paper price, and dealer price.

Jason Hommels "silver stock update" (from about 2 days ago), confirmed what the silver bears are saying

he flat out said all his margins and spreads are growing by leaps and bounds

Comex is supposed to be about price discovery, but for silver that has not been the case for a long time






yeah, but wouldn't many dealers buy by the paper price, and sell for the "dealer price"?


Comex is about price discovery

backwardation is kind of like "greshams law" for futures contracts

there will be no physical silver available at the posted price (unless you stumble upon an ignorant soul on craigs list or some such)

[MAGNES]

I thanked you by accident, " price discovery ", Sarge that from you, :dunno

" backwardization " as well, that is no ball to watch, never was.

Sarge, SI is being rocked and GC is standing still.

They can and do whatever they want. CRIMEX SHORTS.

Wait till they drop GC.

Like before, we still got possible highs or intermediate highs again till real games come.

Watch gold, that is the ball to watch, that gives the game away.

There will be no physical silver, we documented this before, that is a different issue.
Good luck buying SAE's.

My previous posts on COT and volumes on here, gold, are far more on topic to your OP.

The info in your OP is not new, read my posts with charts.

[Large Sarge]

Sarge, SI is being rocked and GC is standing still.

They can and do whatever they want. CRIMEX SHORTS.

Wait till they drop GC.

Like before, we still got possible highs or intermediate highs again till real games come.

Watch gold, that is the ball to watch, that gives the game away.


I disagree on this one Magnes, they own/control the gold market, and have done so for centuries...

the Rothschilds openly set the gold price twice daily from their office (for the whole planet)

Gold was never the weak spot, it was always silver....

[MAGNES]

:dunno

Gold 1500 wasn't significant and charts , I have posts on that too, watch gold, si will land somewhere.

Highs in april/may, gold is key to seeing the future. like now .

I have a high on gold of 1600, maybe 1570 was enough for them.

Gold moves and charts told silvers future, as before for years.

The CRIMEX SHORTS are doing nothing more than proving how blatant they are.
Nothing has changed, change comes when they want it.

I am waiting for another bottom and it is looking good so far.

Where's that hat eater.

[MAGNES]

Isn't the just the number of contracts trading hands and not actual holdings. I think we will have to wait for the OI that is reported tomorrow.

What does the 78,000 open contracts mean? Is that the number currently standing for delivery in July?


Like GS 80 % of the trades are the criminals themselves and everyone else is a sucker.

Buy Sell Buy Sell, it would be like a stores inventory is sold 2 times in one day, total turns.

They are hitting stops and burning everyone over and over. Ted Butler info on steroids.

If this happened with a NY stock there would be investigations right away.

It is all paper and manipulation, total anomalies to past history, I posted a key chart on here,
not one person comments on it nor thanks me. These volumes are anomalies and not new
for today, have a look, we had this in past as SI was breaking to highs past 23.

Consolidated charts are hard to find, I can't find a good one. I don't pay for a platform.
Compare this to prices and COT . This is key and pros say so too and writing about it.

http://i54.tinypic.com/fpcegw.jpg


I have mentioned TOCOM issues many times, imagine if we had transparency like TOCOM.

Imagine if you had MM information. Even the COT now is faulty for it does not tell us what
they do interweek, now with these volumes, what they did in a month they do in a day.

[Large Sarge]

:dunno

Gold 1500 wasn't significant and charts , I have posts on that too, watch gold, si will land somewhere.

Highs in april/may, gold is key to seeing the future. like now .

I have a high on gold of 1600, maybe 1570 was enough for them.

Gold moves and charts told silvers future, as before for years.

The CRIMEX SHORTS are doing nothing more than proving how blatant they are.
Nothing has changed, change comes when they want it.

I am waiting for another bottom and it is looking good so far.

Where's that hat eater.



big picture magnes

big picture

the article above states july is it

watch and see

and for the record, it was never about gold (I will repeat that a million times if necessary)

the rothschilds have owned and controlled that market for centuries, so all your chart work is pointless, there is a whole organization that agrees with me (GATA) only they refuse to use the term "rothschild"

its about Silver, it always has been, always will be

they do not own any, they do not control it....

is gold in backwardation for the next 4 years?

[MAGNES]

I am talking about prices and trading , you are talking physical,
watching gold is key to understanding moves, price and charts.
SI is harder to get I agree, I post about that, I don't think you
read my calls on here with charts, my analysis going back.
I was wrong on new highs past 23 but I was going by history,
the future from Sept , these are the anomalies, like the volume,
shorts lost control short term and made it up big time, blatant
volumes give this away, going back to last year at key moves.

[Awoke]

It is all paper and manipulation, total anomalies to past history, I posted a key chart on here,
not one person comments on it nor thanks me.

I wouldn't have commented or thanked you, because I don't understand technicals or the futures market, but I would like to thank both of you for having the interesting and stimulating conversation! Keep going!

[osoab]

From Harvey Organ today. (http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/)



The total silver comex OI fell marginally from 132,200 to 130,567 for a loss of only 1663 contracts. The bankers needs more liquidation and thus the need for a raid today. They no doubt succeeded in causing some liquidation on the part of the longs. The front delivery month of May saw its OI fall from 1518 to 1052 for a loss of 466 contracts. We had zero deliveries yesterday so this entire drop was either due to cash settlements or the longs got frightened and pitched instead of standing. I do not believe the increase in margin requirements would cause problems with these longs as they have already placed all their money with the brokerage people. The next delivery month of July saw the OI fall slightly from 80,420 to 78,417. The estimated volume today was extremely high at 128,297. The confirmed volume yesterday with no switches came in at 200,775 contracts or over 1 billion oz of metal. The world only produces 700 million oz in a year. You just have to shake your head in bewilderment on this.

[MAGNES]

It is all paper and manipulation, total anomalies to past history, I posted a key chart on here,
not one person comments on it nor thanks me.

I wouldn't have commented or thanked you, because I don't understand technicals or the futures market, but I would like to thank both of you for having the interesting and stimulating conversation! Keep going!


Look at the chart I put up, from SI $ 30 - 40 , massive volumes, 3-6 times average volume and way past OI.

More volume more room for manipulation.

Even 30 K volume in 90 K month which would be average for a friday,
and that alone is still extraordinary where there is room on a daily basis
for manipulation, now it is just extraordinary blatant, it went from blatant
to even more blatant. What Ted Butler talks about is in the COT chart,
and more so today.

[Large Sarge]

From Harvey Organ today. (http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/)



The total silver comex OI fell marginally from 132,200 to 130,567 for a loss of only 1663 contracts. The bankers needs more liquidation and thus the need for a raid today. They no doubt succeeded in causing some liquidation on the part of the longs. The front delivery month of May saw its OI fall from 1518 to 1052 for a loss of 466 contracts. We had zero deliveries yesterday so this entire drop was either due to cash settlements or the longs got frightened and pitched instead of standing. I do not believe the increase in margin requirements would cause problems with these longs as they have already placed all their money with the brokerage people. The next delivery month of July saw the OI fall slightly from 80,420 to 78,417. The estimated volume today was extremely high at 128,297. The confirmed volume yesterday with no switches came in at 200,775 contracts or over 1 billion oz of metal. The world only produces 700 million oz in a year. You just have to shake your head in bewilderment on this.


78,000 contracts * 5,000 ounces = 390,000,000 ounces @ $42.00 = $16,380,000,000

[osoab]

From Harvey Organ today. (http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/)



The total silver comex OI fell marginally from 132,200 to 130,567 for a loss of only 1663 contracts. The bankers needs more liquidation and thus the need for a raid today. They no doubt succeeded in causing some liquidation on the part of the longs. The front delivery month of May saw its OI fall from 1518 to 1052 for a loss of 466 contracts. We had zero deliveries yesterday so this entire drop was either due to cash settlements or the longs got frightened and pitched instead of standing. I do not believe the increase in margin requirements would cause problems with these longs as they have already placed all their money with the brokerage people. The next delivery month of July saw the OI fall slightly from 80,420 to 78,417. The estimated volume today was extremely high at 128,297. The confirmed volume yesterday with no switches came in at 200,775 contracts or over 1 billion oz of metal. The world only produces 700 million oz in a year. You just have to shake your head in bewilderment on this.


78,000 contracts * 5,000 ounces = 390,000,000 ounces @ $42.00 = $16,380,000,000


The key point in the highlighted was that yesterday's OI was higher than today's. Ditto with volume.

It is right on track with what MAGNES has been pointing out. That this current action is somewhat ho hum.

[Large Sarge]

From Harvey Organ today. (http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/)



The total silver comex OI fell marginally from 132,200 to 130,567 for a loss of only 1663 contracts. The bankers needs more liquidation and thus the need for a raid today. They no doubt succeeded in causing some liquidation on the part of the longs. The front delivery month of May saw its OI fall from 1518 to 1052 for a loss of 466 contracts. We had zero deliveries yesterday so this entire drop was either due to cash settlements or the longs got frightened and pitched instead of standing. I do not believe the increase in margin requirements would cause problems with these longs as they have already placed all their money with the brokerage people. The next delivery month of July saw the OI fall slightly from 80,420 to 78,417. The estimated volume today was extremely high at 128,297. The confirmed volume yesterday with no switches came in at 200,775 contracts or over 1 billion oz of metal. The world only produces 700 million oz in a year. You just have to shake your head in bewilderment on this.


78,000 contracts * 5,000 ounces = 390,000,000 ounces @ $42.00 = $16,380,000,000


The key point in the highlighted was that yesterday's OI was higher than today's. Ditto with volume.

It is right on track with what MAGNES has been pointing out. That this current action is somewhat ho hum.






big picture

3 margin hikes in 5 days, backwardation for 4+ years, comex inventories dropping at an alarming rate, etc

a chart is not all you look at

[Large Sarge]

the article I posted on the margin hikes in the last 5 days said "this is the last feast on the giant carcass that was the silver comex"

it appears July is it.

[Large Sarge]

plus can we add that after 10 years of war, we got Osama.

did some chinese billionaire make a call (collect) to the pentagon, and say," I am cleaning out the last of your silver, you better get your effing troops home ASAP"


pretty big event ( even if it is phoney),

why this week? with all this other stuff happening

[osoab]

plus can we add that after 10 years of war, we got Osama.

did some chinese billionaire make a call (collect) to the pentagon, and say," I am cleaning out the last of your silver, you better get your effing troops home ASAP"


pretty big event ( even if it is phoney),

why this week? with all this other stuff happening





China could have been running on the short end. Just saying.

[MAGNES]

big picture

3 margin hikes in 5 days, backwardation for 4+ years, comex inventories dropping at an alarming rate, etc

a chart is not all you look at


You better than anyone here knows I look at everything, how many times over the years
have we had this cheer leading of a blowup in their face due to inventories, even on agora
as you were posting this I was posting my real time crimex shorts thread, with shorting
at highs around this time to picking the bottoms and trades. Hopefully the same thing
happens.

So in June the COMEX CRIMEX according to Sarg is going to begin defaulting and it will
manifest itself early July in delivery demands for all to see. We have been here before Sarge.

There is a good chance Gold will make highs at 1600 or go sideways, SI will get rocked,
there will be no physical at lower prices, June we will have a low, if it is serious crimex
default that threatens the shorts, those that demand physical are easily handled and
have been handled easily over the years, this is easier now with 3 X average leverage
for the suckers to play with, what Butler talked about is in COT chart and it is easier
to do today, key issue that proves this is volumes.

Hence me trying to document this key issue.

Let's see how this works out.

Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating,
not thread on calls like this is complete without him chiming in.

These discussions are not new obviously, among friends .

[Large Sarge]

big picture

3 margin hikes in 5 days, backwardation for 4+ years, comex inventories dropping at an alarming rate, etc

a chart is not all you look at


You better than anyone here knows I look at everything, how many times over the years
have we had this cheer leading of a blowup in their face due to inventories, even on agora
as you were posting this I was posting my real time crimex shorts thread, with shorting
at highs around this time to picking the bottoms and trades. Hopefully the same thing
happens.

So in June the COMEX CRIMEX according to Sarg is going to begin defaulting and it will
manifest itself early July in delivery demands for all to see. We have been here before Sarge.

There is a good chance Gold will make highs at 1600 or go sideways, SI will get rocked,
there will be no physical at lower prices, June we will have a low, if it is serious crimex
default that threatens the shorts, those that demand physical are easily handled and
have been handled easily over the years, this is easier now with 3 X average leverage
for the suckers to play with, what Butler talked about is in COT chart and it is easier
to do today, key issue that proves this is volumes.

Hence me trying to document this key issue.

Let's see how this works out.

Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating,
not thread on calls like this is complete without him chiming in.

These discussions are not new obviously, among friends .







Magnes,

Silver has not been in backwardation all those years.

Backwardation in silver and gold is like a 90 year old person catching pneumonnia, its very serious shit...

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/three-times-in-five-days.html

The CME/EE complex is desperately trying to squash demand for silver. The entire price discovery and delivery process of the Comex is collapsing. These desperate times are calling for desperate measures and you are seeing them play out in real time.The key now is to be patient. If The Cartel is desperate to save the Comex and smash silver, we should let them. Besides, why would we want to see this magnificent cash cow slaughtered before we could extract every possible fiat penny? I had been expecting a selloff/consolidation from the period of 5/6-5/20. It is clear now that, since the Comex is going to survive May, the selloff began ahead of schedule. Let it play out. Let silver come in a little more over the next 5-7 days. I'll be looking to buy every time silver trades down between 40 and 42. As we move into late May, the market will begin to focus on the July delivery and we will once again roll to new highs, in silver and in our personal accounts.

[MAGNES]

you have another thread Sarge how they are dropping silver

why do you think they are doing that

dealing with the longs flushing them out, destroying them, ala Butler explanations is easier now

when they kill SI people here will be asking what just happened

I won't be reposting what I already posted.

GC is key to watch.

[gunDriller]

Ponce, I think you should just forward all that TP to J.P. Morgan, a bunch of those guys just $hit their pants (I promise you)

i use rags. JP Morgan can use rags.

for that matter, JPMorgan can wash my toilet rags.

[Large Sarge]

you watch gold Magnes, and I will watch silver

sounds fair to me

they show an inventory of

33.152 million ounces of silver for Comex (* spot price of $42) = $1,392,384,000

1.3 billion dollars buys every scrap of silver comex has tooday (if they are being honest about inventory)

how many billionaires are there worldwide?

I think the U.S. has over 400

Israel probably hasw 400 also

add in Russia, China, S. America, etc

just a few phone calls from these folks, and the party is over.....

thats why I watch Silver.....

There is no silver, and its so absurdly cheap.

[Trinity]

Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating

You rang?

The 2x12 12" on center with 3/4 plywood 42 dollar floor that I recently constructed obviously failed.
But under that floor I have constructed another 38 dollar floor using 14x6 I beams 5' on center overlayed with 2" corrugated floor decking that was filled with concrete to a depth of 5 inches. I am quite confident this floor will hold.

[osoab]

Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating

You rang?

The 2x12 12" on center with 3/4 plywood 42 dollar floor that I recently constructed obviously failed.
But under that floor I have constructed another 38 dollar floor using 14x6 I beams 5' on center overlayed with 2" corrugated floor decking that was filled with concrete to a depth of 5 inches. I am quite confident this floor will hold.


That is a sturdy floor there.

You could have used 4" deck and 6" of fiber mesh crete. If you really wanted to beef it up, change your beams to
W 24x76's 5' OC then shoot some 3/4X4 studs once the decking is laid. ;D

[Trinity]

osoab, if I thought we were going below 38 dollars I would construct such a floor. Thanks for the advice though.

[MrCottonsParrot]

Much ado about nothing. Volume has been high because people are rolling from May to July. It's open interest that tells you how many contracts are open. Volume can be 150,000 and open interest 80000. People trading back and forth causes volume. Total contracts open is open interest.

Comprende? Open interest really hasn't changed, volume was high because of contract rollover. While volume can sometimes be an indicator, it doesn't indicate number of contracts open, or ounces demanded.

SOME CORRECTIONS to post MADE:

Daily volumes hit close to 200,000 during the changeover. Open interest in July about 80k, May is zeroed out, but was 80k a month or so ago. Nothing to see here. Ho Hum routine of contract rollover in a commodity.

8k open contracts would be about 400k ounces. Significant, but not in the same ballpark with the amount in the OP. 400M, not 780M oz's. Huge difference.

[MAGNES]

CottonParent is wrong. Even the silver analysts are freaking.

This is new. Last two hits from 50 SI I documented it to show the absurd volumes.

Flushing longs and the old operations still being used to control the market, the higher
volumes are anomalies since Sept. 2010 , same with the massive volumes last 2 sunday
nights.

Big money is moving into the market and they are being flushed.

Repeat till they are gone.

Read Ted Butler.

Having massive volumes multiples of OI is ridiculous , 2010 we had a lot of that too.
I posted a chart on this, compare the volume to other years, it is new thing.

This is something key to watch. You can easily pick a blowoff top with the volumes
and we have done that in the posts, and the volume chart I posted shows this too
for Nov2010 at si 30 .

The volumes are so high massive wealth is trading hands and something nefarious may be happening.
Transfer of wealth.

Buying and closing out constantly isn't normal. At the end of the day the OI is the same.

[MAGNES]

Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating

You rang?

The 2x12 12" on center with 3/4 plywood 42 dollar floor that I recently constructed obviously failed.
But under that floor I have constructed another 38 dollar floor using 14x6 I beams 5' on center overlayed with 2" corrugated floor decking that was filled with concrete to a depth of 5 inches. I am quite confident this floor will hold.


too easy, lol

I am shocked it is so high, we are only a breath away, gc may hit 1500 which would put si right on that floor.

Imagine if they break sub 1500.

We could easily go to 1600 as top, and they will control si to sub 50, then the games begin.
again

[Large Sarge]

Here we have an article from hank paulson, "Gold will be over $4,000 in 3 years"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wsj-reports-soros-burbank-selling-gold-silver-paulson-sees-gold-hitting-4000-three-years



Comex will not have a scrap of silver in 3 years, not even in one year

since comex is supposed to be about "price discovery" (not price suppression)

no one will know the real price of silver.

again all the charts, and other technical indicators are worthless if the place is cleaned out, and its getting cleaned out....

they are feasting on the carcass

no silver, no price discovery....

Price of gold = $4,000 by 2014

price of silver is unknown by 2012 and on.....

there is a default in progress for silver, not gold...

Gold can shoot upto the heavens, it will not make the silver vault at Comex suddenly replenish itself...

there is no silver

I seriously douby comex has 33 million ounces on site

[osoab]

Here we have an article from hank paulson, "Gold will be over $4,000 in 3 years"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wsj-reports-soros-burbank-selling-gold-silver-paulson-sees-gold-hitting-4000-three-years



Comex will not have a scrap of silver in 3 years, not even in one year

since comex is supposed to be about "price discovery" (not price suppression)

no one will know the real price of silver.

again all the charts, and other technical indicators are worthless if the place is cleaned out, and its getting cleaned out....

they are feasting on the carcass

no silver, no price discovery....

Price of gold = $4,000 by 2014

price of silver is unknown by 2012 and on.....

there is a default in progress for silver, not gold...

Gold can shoot upto the heavens, it will not make the silver vault at Comex suddenly replenish itself...

there is no silver

I seriously douby comex has 33 million ounces on site







LS it was John Paulson not ole baldy Hank.

[Large Sarge]

Here we have an article from hank paulson, "Gold will be over $4,000 in 3 years"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wsj-reports-soros-burbank-selling-gold-silver-paulson-sees-gold-hitting-4000-three-years



Comex will not have a scrap of silver in 3 years, not even in one year

since comex is supposed to be about "price discovery" (not price suppression)

no one will know the real price of silver.

again all the charts, and other technical indicators are worthless if the place is cleaned out, and its getting cleaned out....

they are feasting on the carcass

no silver, no price discovery....

Price of gold = $4,000 by 2014

price of silver is unknown by 2012 and on.....

there is a default in progress for silver, not gold...

Gold can shoot upto the heavens, it will not make the silver vault at Comex suddenly replenish itself...

there is no silver

I seriously douby comex has 33 million ounces on site







LS it was John Paulson not ole baldy Hank.


I stand corrected,

but my premise remains

Gold at $4000 by 2014
Silver price unknown by 2012

[MAGNES]

Comex will not have a scrap of silver in 3 years, not even in one year


" Comex default in 2 months ", remember, no changing the goal posts now. LOL

You posted about volumes, I posted a chart with more extreme volumes from 6 months ago.
Where was the default then. ? Every year around this time at seasonal highs someone is saying
default, this is the 6th year for me of this, year one I got suckered into it and it cost me.
I even ignored the cheerleaders of lemetro on the cheerleading and it worked out for me.
Greatest thing they did was COT analysis especially on TOCOM, their calls were spot on.

I believe in total complete corruption of the market, it ain't over till they say so.
FED operations won't stop to bleed everyone. SI default would put an end to
much.

[Large Sarge]

Comex will not have a scrap of silver in 3 years, not even in one year


" Comex default in 2 months ", remember, no changing the goal posts now. LOL

You posted about volumes, I posted a chart with more extreme volumes from 6 months ago.
Where was the default then. ? Every year around this time at seasonal highs someone is saying
default, this is the 6th year for me of this, year one I got suckered into it and it cost me.
I even ignored the cheerleaders of lemetro on the cheerleading and it worked out for me.
Greatest thing they did was COT analysis especially on TOCOM, their calls were spot on.

I believe in total complete corruption of the market, it ain't over till they say so.
FED operations won't stop to bleed everyone. SI default would put an end to
much.




Yes I think July is likely the default, I get Jim Willies "hat trick" newsletter, and he is about the best writer out there.

he usually puts up the newsletter by midmonth,

needless to say this months newsletter should offer some real insight into what is going on (Osama, Comex draindown, etc)

have to see Magnes

I want to offer an apology to you Magnes, I know you do a lot of work and research in this arena, but it is my contention that we are nearing the 1 yard line (so to speak), and most of the traditional data/indicators are not going to be worth much.

I mean once Comex is empty, its just empty.

no chart is going to tell you anything.

I guess at that point they start bidding up the price until they get sellers, and the futures contracts come out of backwardization

if anything big is going to happen in the markets, its going to be with silver, gold is a controlled market IMO, and has been for quite awhile.

remember all the IMF sales of gold, and then it comes out "no gold actually traded hands"
how about fort knox? does anyone here think there is any gold in fort knox?
etc

my apologies to you again Magnes, "heat of the moment" kind of thing, but Silver is going to default, and its always been about Silver (not gold)

[Horn]

The capper is when they start pricing everything in Euros.

[MAGNES]

Apology not accepted cause there is no need for it, I am in your thread anyways
getting in your face, lol . Don't go soft on us. Put everyone on a diet again. LOL

I am going by history and watching whats different.

I strongly believe if there is a default on silver like LME had one on zinc that would
be a real game changer for the FED Syndicate, they won't go there, it is too early.
GC would rocket, so would many commodities, other metals, they control gold to
put a lid on this inflation from manifesting itself, prolong their ponzi scheme.

To bust the comex short term you need people standing for delivery no matter the price.
They will drop the price and stop this. Looks that way again.

[Awoke]

they control gold to
put a lid on this inflation from manifesting itself, prolong their ponzi scheme.


Yes. QFT.

[gunDriller]

From Harvey Organ today. (http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/)



The total silver comex OI fell marginally from 132,200 to 130,567 for a loss of only 1663 contracts. The bankers needs more liquidation and thus the need for a raid today. They no doubt succeeded in causing some liquidation on the part of the longs. The front delivery month of May saw its OI fall from 1518 to 1052 for a loss of 466 contracts. We had zero deliveries yesterday so this entire drop was either due to cash settlements or the longs got frightened and pitched instead of standing. I do not believe the increase in margin requirements would cause problems with these longs as they have already placed all their money with the brokerage people. The next delivery month of July saw the OI fall slightly from 80,420 to 78,417. The estimated volume today was extremely high at 128,297. The confirmed volume yesterday with no switches came in at 200,775 contracts or over 1 billion oz of metal. The world only produces 700 million oz in a year. You just have to shake your head in bewilderment on this.


so silver at $40.60 isn't a bad deal ?

it seems like there's a lot of pressure driving the prices up.

besides the ever-increasing margin requirements, is this week's downtick largely the result of the Obama-Osama show ?

[MAGNES]

Here is an interesting article, I confused zinc with nickel, zinc inventories were dangerously low too.
You can find zeal articles on that for free in their essays full of charts.

First Nickel, Then Silver?
By: Theodore Butler
Posted 21 August, 2006
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1156198042.php

Silver is not a base metal but a monetary metal tied to gold,
price would double overnight for physical to $100 and have
serious consequences.

In 2006 April May, we were going to wake up one day and SI would be $40. LOL

[JDRock]

as long as folks are measuring their ag/au by dollars, the charts are nothing more than meaninless #s in a phony manipulated mkt. Your pm's are not worth a dime more or less than they EVER were, save temporal public perception....

[Large Sarge]

Here is an interesting article, I confused zinc with nickel, zinc inventories were dangerously low too.
You can find zeal articles on that for free in their essays full of charts.

First Nickel, Then Silver?
By: Theodore Butler
Posted 21 August, 2006
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1156198042.php

Silver is not a base metal but a monetary metal tied to gold,
price would double overnight for physical to $100 and have
serious consequences.

In 2006 April May, we were going to wake up one day and SI would be $40. LOL





from the link above:

"This past week, the investment world witnessed an event that has only occurred rarely in the past. I am referring to the extraordinary developments in the nickel market on the London Metals Exchange (LME), the largest base metals exchange in the world. Due to an unprecedented scarcity of metal, the LME was forced to revise the delivery terms of its nickel contracts. In return for allowing short sellers to delay delivery of metal, a daily penalty fee of around 1% of the contract value was payable by the shorts to long holders."

Magnes, silver short sellers (J.P. Morgan) do not deliver anything except hefty cash premiums on contracts

so technically the default has already occurred, it is just getting more acute

[MAGNES]

as long as folks are measuring their ag/au by dollars, the charts are nothing more than meaninless #s in a phony manipulated mkt. Your pm's are not worth a dime more or less than they EVER were, save temporal public perception....


Said the trader.

SI is sub 40 and GC didn't even get started at 1530.

I was hoping for 1625 pop and 49.85 first week of June.

[mamboni]

as long as folks are measuring their ag/au by dollars, the charts are nothing more than meaninless #s in a phony manipulated mkt. Your pm's are not worth a dime more or less than they EVER were, save temporal public perception....


Agreed. We are hosed by TPTB only of we let them shape our perceptions. BTW, I've noticed only a slight softening of bids for SAEs on Ebay: singles settling for $51-52 (was $52-54) and rolls of 20 still selling for >$50 per coin. This is the highest spread between physical and paper spot price in my memory (~$11 dollars).

What are inventories like at the dealers? Got a call from Larry and IR and they have no SAEs in stock and only 2000 on order! So much for the dropping silver price. :oo-->

[mick silver]

i said this a week ago you will see a price drop but not be able to buy silver at that price . if a dealer pays xx for silver he will not sell his silver for a lose

[Awoke]

i said this a week ago you will see a price drop but not be able to buy silver at that price . if a dealer pays xx for silver he will not sell his silver for a lose


Exactly. When we had our breakthrough from the 18/19 dollar roof, and we shot up to the mid 20's, then dropped back down to the 18ish prices, no dealer was selling maples for less than $26 around these parts.

[Horn]

In the end the result of this action is the completely disposable world you see before you.

And they speak of environmental controls as good for the Earth...

No, its just another game to line their pockets.

[osoab]

Today's volume posted as of now. (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html)


Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated Prior Day
Volume Open Interest

MAY 11 41.500 42.255 38.980 - -3.193 39.383 984 692
JUN 11 41.555 42.300 38.955 - -3.193 39.387 7,341 814
JLY 11 41.665 42.325 38.940 39.340 -3.197 39.388 160,360 77,868
SEP 11 41.650 42.330 38.990 39.950 -3.201 39.396 2,994 10,571
DEC 11 41.670 42.315 38.980 - -3.204 39.396 4,274 20,545
JAN 12 41.620 41.620 40.500 - -3.210 39.373 4 104



I updated the blue numbers. about another 1000 contracts were added to volume.

[Large Sarge]

4th and 5th margin hikes for silver

"nothing to see here folks, move along"

anyone see a margin hike on gold?
hmmm?


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-parabolic-rise-cme-silver-margin-hikes

Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.

[Large Sarge]

the meltdown continues....

notice no margin hikes at all for gold, no worries in that market.

Silver market gets beaten like a red headed step child..... (unprecedented 5 margin hikes in 8 days)

[Awoke]

Yeah, this beat down is more agressive than the "aggressive" climb up towards 50 was.

Manipulation doesn't get much more obvious than what we are seeing here.

[Serpo]

4th and 5th margin hikes for silver

"nothing to see here folks, move along"

anyone see a margin hike on gold?
hmmm?


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-parabolic-rise-cme-silver-margin-hikes

Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.


No margin hikes on gold..............proof silver is the biggy.

And look at the chart of silver going parabolic....xxxxxxx I mean the CME ;D chart of silver and increased margins graph......this will destroy them faster as why not just go and buy physical instead.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Last night Kitco had generic 1 oz rounds and 100oz bars available. Now they are not showing any generics, 100oz bars are available only to USA, SE's are available only outside USA.

[Ponce]

And those who are selling are being bought by the Fed.........after all they have to back up their quatrillion of dollars with something.

[MAGNES]

4th and 5th margin hikes for silver

"nothing to see here folks, move along"

anyone see a margin hike on gold?
hmmm?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-parabolic-rise-cme-silver-margin-hikes

Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.


So now we are in record territory, not that long ago the high was 14 K + when SI was sub 20 at it highs.
Simmer 2009 maybe, forgot, as of the 3rd, yesterday it went to record territory from 14 K to 16 K, so now
in less than a week we are making another record. These are still very high leverage margin requirements
but they will flush some people out, the leverage works in their favor as I have been pointing out, the volume,
who the hell is trading ? We don't know, you can be assured JPM the MM is not losing money on these
takedowns.

As of a couple of days ago, 14 K was margin at $50 that was still about 3 X past leverage
when SI was sub $20 and 14 K margin.

Everything I said stands, gold gives you signals, watching gold is key, gold hasn't even broken 1500
and they killed SI with these volumes, the harder the drops and the harder the flush out operation
they will drop OI, close out shorts, and nobody as I have been saying will be standing for delivery.

These events and drops in SI, there will be no default as I have been stating, this news is strong confirmation.
Everything is built into the charts, SI now is weaker than gold, but if gold went up 30 bucks SI would follow.
Watch gold on charts and SI still follows, like I always said we will see where it lands.

I am going to steal OSOABS post again, freaky volumes again.

Nacca, 38 is here dude, gold is 1520, we are going to see lows in SI if they drop GC that
are comparable to 2008 percentage drops. So get ready, $20 is a very real possibility,
but like I have already stated good luck getting physical, but incredible opportunities will
present themselves for a long term swing trade.

[MAGNES]

Yeah, this beat down is more agressive than the "aggressive" climb up towards 50 was.

Manipulation doesn't get much more obvious than what we are seeing here.


JPM is the key MM on SI, they own the pits, they also are head of operations
on market manipulation trading for their own accounts and using agents to
do the same, one office controls all this, GS was key gold controller on TOCOM,
they are all working together which is illegal, even taking orders, ABX Barrick
in court was also involved selling forward and was taken to court they claimed
" sovereign immunity " as working as agents for FED they have immunity, on
old gim good sources were presented, Gold and Silver manipulation and control
these operations come from executive orders from White House, they have
immunity, they keep the profits, to manipulate the market, it is a matter of
national security, that is speculation but it is good speculation, the criminals
have their asses covered legally. And the media is big part of this doing propaganda
all these years, they cover an issue after the news makes it out after the fact.
That tells you who is robbing us. I have been robbed many times. As everyone.
Just being MM and trading for your own account, on NY MM stocks, that is illegal
and you can go to jail, but on Nasdaq it is business as usual, Madoff was chairman too,
owned Nasdaq, Madoff operations are taking place in metals markets, all this volume, there
should be an investigation, huge transfer of wealth and potential for nefarious
activity, do the math on the volumes, the drops, the money, it is incredible.
Things are so corrupt they went from bad to pointing a gun to your head in open.

There is good news awoke, get ready to go long hopefully we get that chance again.
Summer is good period for this. Gold is saying the real take down has not started.
Wait for it.

MM is market maker.

JPM is also Rockefeller , The Fed , The CIA, the CFR, they own it all, they are EXXON too.
Rothchild same thing in UK, they own the markets, they own the ICE exchange, BIS, ...
There will be no justice administered to these criminals. I wouldn't be surprised if
Israel runs these operations, Marc Rich was biggest commodity guy in Europe and planet.
From WM
Secretive Glencore goes public. Glencore was fugitive Marc Rich's operation, so its corrupt from "ground zero."
http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/news/1068024/the-glencore-millionaire-club-trader-valued-61bn/


It is the little guys buying SAE and Maples that took the mask off.
Buying 10 oz at a time. 2008 premiums were 100% of price and
SI disappeared, that woke everyone up big time.

[MAGNES]

@ Serpo, good post,
the raising of requirements is one of their tools, but we have seen in the past
highs in SI and highs in margin requirements, that is not info to trade on its own,
the COT is was the most important chart, but with 200 K volumes it will be meaningless, lol ,
my memory may be wrong but summer 2009 it was 14 K and SI stayed at highs
for long time, no real corrections,
I lost money buying puts playing this for drops, the info is on my drive, I can dig it
up. There were no real drops, corrections 2009, 2010, as all other years, they
are good opportunities to go long with confidence especially if gold drops 30 %
in summer.

[MAGNES]

Today's volume posted as of now. (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html)


Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated Prior Day
Volume Open Interest

MAY 11 41.500 42.255 38.980 - -3.193 39.383 984 692
JUN 11 41.555 42.300 38.955 - -3.193 39.387 7,341 814
JLY 11 41.665 42.325 38.940 39.340 -3.197 39.388 160,360 77,868
SEP 11 41.650 42.330 38.990 39.950 -3.201 39.396 2,994 10,571
DEC 11 41.670 42.315 38.980 - -3.204 39.396 4,274 20,545
JAN 12 41.620 41.620 40.500 - -3.210 39.373 4 104

I updated the blue numbers. about another 1000 contracts were added to volume.



Lots of key issues in this thread, this info takes the cake and is most significant.
Who the hell are the traders ? Like that report where 80% of the trades in
equity market were GS black box trading, big volumes, propping the market up,
they have become more blatant and something like that I suspect is going on
here. Do the math on just 10 K contracts, COT was 40 - 60 K and that was
big deal, even Butler must be having a heart attack now, lol . Even with 30 K
volumes traded on Friday, Friday is good day for manipulation, setups, thats
history, you can manipulate the market swinging the price and stopping people
out, coming back in, etc, there is a good reason why they don't do daily COTS
so you can't see these moves. With these volumes now they do it all in a day.
Up down and all around. 10 K = 50 million X $3.00 = $150 Million.
AS OI remains roughly the same.

[Son-of-Liberty]

I got thinking about it today and isn't June supposed to be the last month of QE2? So July would be right after they either stop QE or continue it. Don't know for sure if it has something to do with the insane volume for july but it might.

[Serpo]

And those who are selling are being bought by the Fed.........after all they have to back up their quatrillion of dollars with something.


What have they turned over a new leaf..............

[Serpo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNmbSShp3iQ&feature=player_embedded

[Serpo]

this market is in your face rigged................

perma shorts (which by the way are voting members at the exchange)

GroundHog Day for Silver - AGAIN
This seems to be a pattern much like the movie starring Bill Murray where he gets trapped in a day which keeps repeating itself until he gets it right. With the Comex however it seems to be a matter of seeing how many small specs (and even some larger ones) they can take out of the silver market so as to make certain that the perma shorts (which by the way are voting members at the exchange) can recoup the entirety of their paper losses they suffered as silver roared higher from down near $26 back in January of this year.

For the second time in a week, and for the FOURTH time in two weeks, the exchange is once again hiking margin requirements for trading silver. Actually, it will be FIVE Times in less than 3 weeks with Monday's hike.

This time it advances to $18,900 from the current $16,200 effective as of the close of business tomorrow or Thursday. Maintenance margin jumps to $14,000 from $12,000. Hedgers are facing an increase as well but it is to maintenance margin levels.


If that were not enough, then come Monday the margin rate gets hiked AGAIN, jumping to $21,600 with a new maintenance margin of $16,000. At current silver values, that amounts to more than 10% of the total value of a single silver futures contract if you want to play.

Obviously this is going to produce even more volatility as the small specs exit the market, most of them being unable to afford to trade it except for all but the specs with the deepest of pockets. A lot of the small guys are probably already wrung out but those who might have been long from lower levels and were unaffected by the margin hike due to the paper profits they might have from being long at a lower level could be at risk if this market continues dropping.

This is ostensibly designed to protect the integrity of the clearing houses as well as giving some brokers the cover they need to hike margins on their clients to protect their own firms in the event of trades gone sour. Keep in mind that these are MINIMUM MARGIN REQUIREMENTS. Brokers are free to set customer margins wherever they wish as long as they meet minimum. That means they could go to $25,000 or even $30,000 per contract if that is what their firm feels more comfortable with.

I suspect however that there is more here than keeping the integrity of the clearing houses. It is too much too fast given the already steep decline in the market. It smells like a deliberate effort is being orchestrated to take the metal lower and rescue the shorts who as I said previously, are voting members of the exchange and who could no longer handle the bleeding of their accounts.

Nothing like transparency and free markets....

http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

[MAGNES]

Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating

You rang?

The 2x12 12" on center with 3/4 plywood 42 dollar floor that I recently constructed obviously failed.
But under that floor I have constructed another 38 dollar floor using 14x6 I beams 5' on center overlayed with 2" corrugated floor decking that was filled with concrete to a depth of 5 inches. I am quite confident this floor will hold.


The most significant thing is they blew by $1500 short term support.

1460 and SI is 35 now, the floor was 1500 that failed, this is why watching
GC is key, silver will land some where, traders had a gift, two blow off tops
in a row sunday night, may seasonals, highs, sell sell sell.

No more hats for you, have some blueberry pie and a good coffee like me now.

Now we watch $1400, if they are serious about closing shorts out and really
burning everyone they will bust that down, later, that will be hard to do though.

This is just confirmation to no default.

[Large Sarge]

[quote]Where's nacca, need him here for concrete bottoms and hat eating


This is just confirmation to no default.

you seem to trust their official silver inventory numbers....

Comex was probably audited the last time fort knox was

[Serpo]

Thursday, May 5, 2011
Collusion by Fed officials and Commodity Exchange heads has its intended effect
I find it amazing how effectively these people can coordinate their policies with the heads of the commodity exchanges and their pals at the big banks who are perennial shorts in the markets and have now managed to pluck the money out of hundreds of thousands of commodity trading accounts enriching the big banks (government sponsored hedge funds) in the process. Nothing like a freely operating financial system where the playing field is completely level and no one has an advantage over the next guy!

By their continued hiking of silver margins, the exchange effectively removed the liquidity in the silver market that the smaller specs have been providing. That left the market vulnerable to severe drops in price as these specs exited due to financial constraints which then removed a source of potential bids under the market as the CFTC commitments report has shown the small specs to be good buyers in the silver market. Even the bigger hedge funds are impacted by such a sharp hike in margins as their losses in silver then precipitate even more losses across other assorted commodity markets due to the cascading effect of mounting paper losses and margin calls and the need to raise cash.

As the silver market tanked the exchange officials could then warn about Clearinghouse integrity and have more reasons to drive margins even higher as they point to the increased volatility, volatility which I might add, they created themselves by hiking margins to such an extreme degree.

I find it hypocritical, if not downright wicked, that this is occuring against a backdrop of a senior executive at the CME Group, one Mr. Bryan Durkin to be exact, warning regulators against reining in High Frequency Traders. He parroted the usual BS about their presence providing much needed liquidity warning that any attempts to bring them under more intense scrutiny or curtail their activity would result in markets becoming less efficient. Does anyone besides me marvel at the temerity of these people who spout such idiocy and then go about deliberately instituting a series of devastating margin hikes which are deliberately designed to KILL LIQUIDITY guaranteeing less efficient markets and roiling the entire commodity complex in the process. Is this what an efficient market is supposed to look like when crude oil prices collapse nearly 9% in a single day because there are no bids or silver which is again down nearly 9% also in a single day?

The truth is that the exchanges are money hungry bastards that want the fees generated by the HFT crowd and do not want anyone to mess with their golden egg laying goose.

Regardless, this collusion on the part of the players involved has accomplished, for the time being only, what the Fed has been trying to do ever since it instituted its second round of QE, which by any standard of objective measurement, has failed. To wit - keep long term interest rates low to generate borrowing.

Unfortunately for the Fed, the bonds were not cooperating and were actually moving lower for a while as commodity prices were responding to the breakdown in the Dollar and holders of long term bonds were balking at hanging on to an "asset" that was priced in a collapsing currency while being threatened with a serious outbreak of inflation as a result of all the reckless money creation.

What could be done especially with the US Dollar within a mere point of crashing through a critical support level which would have seen the onset of a currency collapse and a resultant crisis?

Oh by the way, I might note here that the Japanese Yen has moved to within 58 pips of the level that brought about a massive coordinated intervention back in March that was tied to the tragic earthquake and tsunami. All of those billions spent on knocking the currency down have been wasted as the newest plan to derail the commodity markets brought about another unwinding of the Yen carry trade causing the exact same problem for Japan once again. In other words, less than two months later and after spending billions to derail the Yen and prop up the Dollar against it, we are right back to where we started on Dollar/Yen

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/collusion-by-fed-officials-and.html

[JDRock]

manipulation :oo--> yawn...silver at 50? thats way below value imho...if the bastards want to smack it down ( in temporal public perception) so what? we knew this was coming, i mean people were waking up! so the play was put in motion by, as magnes says jpm, to effect PUBLIC PERCEPTION so people would think that silver was "risky"... :oo-->..that this uptrend was nothing more than an anomaly..."nothing to see here move on folks"
also, never underestimate the INCREDIBLE power our adversaries wield.

and,hell yes im buying more!

[MAGNES]

manipulation :oo--> yawn...silver at 50? thats way below value imho...if the bastards want to smack it down ( in temporal public perception) so what? we knew this was coming, i mean people were waking up! so the play was put in motion by, as magnes says jpm, do effect PUBLIC PERCEPTION that silver was "risky"... :oo-->..that this uptrend was nothing more than an anomaly..."nothing to see here move on folks"
also, never underestimate the INCREDIBLE power our adversaries wield.

and,hell yes im buying more!


JD, you day trade, I don't but I am looking for a position for a longer term swing trade like past,
so I got my eye on the ball.

What do you think of these volumes ? This is more than just market price rigging now IMO.

I documented the blow off tops on here and these key issues as they happened.
Don't miss that thread, what do you have to say about it, chime in.

[JDRock]

i think the heavies are scared, they are loading their vaults on these dips as i really dont believe they were expecting this kind of upward action(the last few mos). They have job#1 at hand; DONT LET THE LITTLE GUYS GET INTERESTED IN PM'S! their aim is to bring everyone to their knees by crashing the dollar. this CANNOT happen if the average joe is holding lots of pm's.....just my thoughts.

[MAGNES]

i think the heavies are scared, they are loading their vaults on these dips as i really dont believe they were expecting this kind of upward action(the last few mos). They have job#1 at hand; DONT LET THE LITTLE GUYS GET INTERESTED IN PM'S! their aim is to bring everyone to their knees by crashing the dollar. this CANNOT happen if the average joe is holding lots of pm's.....just my thoughts.


They let SI ride high to 50 , look how it was moving, gc sideways si up 2 bucks quite a few times,
only now did they raise margins, margins were at all time lows not that long ago when si was blowing
past highs in sept, even very recently si was 6 K margin, low margin even for sub 20 si.
That helps damper moves, it's not conclusive.
The shorts were positioned some how, they lost nothing IMO to the shorts in cot chart they show.
Who the hell knows what else they got going. CDS to si and gc. Burn everyone. Soon they will
be doing it outright to countries and continents with Ice exchange and cap and trade carbon.

[JohnQPublic]

I got thinking about it today and isn't June supposed to be the last month of QE2? So July would be right after they either stop QE or continue it. Don't know for sure if it has something to do with the insane volume for july but it might.


I believe July is the next delvery month in silver. June is not (but it is in gold- aribtrage opportunity for paper players?).

[Book]

...this CANNOT happen if the average joe is holding lots of pm's.....just my thoughts.



The average joe is staring at chronic unemployment and food stamps not buying shiny metal......just my thoughts.

:)

[osoab]

Today's settlement numbers (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html) at the current time. I am only posting July's. Volume is up, OI is down.


JLY 11 39.200 39.565 34.250 36.800 -3.148 36.240 194,318 75,089

The price....

[JDRock]

...this CANNOT happen if the average joe is holding lots of pm's.....just my thoughts.



The average joe is staring at chronic unemployment and food stamps not buying shiny metal......just my thoughts.

:)




when the televitz and other uninformed publications have people PUMPING ag, its time to expect a smackdown...it is EXACTLY that. ave. joe was buying in on the hype, and panicked and sold , or tried to, and the price went down accordingly. In trading terms, it was a shake....ive seen it a thousand times in the mkt.. long here all the way past 50. not that it matters to me because i really dont value pms by dollars ...i value dollars by pm's.

[Libertytree]

...this CANNOT happen if the average joe is holding lots of pm's.....just my thoughts.



The average joe is staring at chronic unemployment and food stamps not buying shiny metal......just my thoughts.

:)




when the televitz and other uninformed publications have people PUMPING ag, its time to expect a smackdown...it is EXACTLY that. ave. joe was buying in on the hype, and panicked and sold , or tried to, and the price went down accordingly. In trading terms, it was a shake....ive seen it a thousand times in the mkt.. long here all the way past 50. not that it matters to me because i really dont value pms by dollars ...i value dollars by pm's.

Excellent and sig worthy!

[osoab]

osoab, if I thought we were going below 38 dollars I would construct such a floor. Thanks for the advice though.


I constructed my floor for the 32 range. Let's see if it holds.

[Bigjon]

I got thinking about it today and isn't June supposed to be the last month of QE2? So July would be right after they either stop QE or continue it. Don't know for sure if it has something to do with the insane volume for july but it might.


I believe July is the next delvery month in silver. June is not (but it is in gold- aribtrage opportunity for paper players?).


Every month is a delivery month.

In the next year there are 6 contract months with the intermediary months becoming active when they are near term months. On 5/27/2011 the month of August will open for trading.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_product_calendar_futures.html

[osoab]

Today's settlement numbers for the July contract (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html)


JLY 11 34.790 36.430 33.035 35.635 -.953 35.287 178,596 77,140

Volume down, OI up

[MrCottonsParrot]

CottonParent is wrong. Even the silver analysts are freaking.



No I'm not. Everything I said is true if anyone is willing to actually learn it rather than listen to freaking paid analysts. Silver analysts are always freaking, just like people on message boards. For the analysts, it's how they make their living, they get paid to panic. For the message boarders it's usually just inexperience and ignorance of the future's market.

Silver is in a bull market, no doubt, and the dollar is going down, but understand something... a parabolic climb is never, repeat never a normal move and volatility always, repeat always leads to margin increases to settle the market. Once it settles, margins come back down, be it silver or pork bellies.

Look at the rollover of futures months in silver over the past 2 weeks. The old month had about 80k+ open interest, the new one has about 80k+ OI. Same, same. The volume was the rollover. Learn how futures work and things won't freak you out so bad.

[osoab]

I haven't touched on the settlements on the SI contract for silver for a bit, but I have been watching.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

The last 2 days or so we have seen much more volume (around 77,00+), but the past 3-4 weeks we have been lucky to break 60,000 contracts trading hands. Far cry from the 160,000+ numbers we were seeing.

Summer doldrums or heating up for the July contract expiration now? Anyone keeping up with Harvey Organ?

[MAGNES]

CottonParent is wrong. Even the silver analysts are freaking.



No I'm not. Everything I said is true

Look at the rollover of futures months in silver over the past 2 weeks. The old month had about 80k+ open interest, the new one has about 80k+ OI. Same, same. The volume was the rollover. Learn how futures work and things won't freak you out so bad.

In this thread alone.
We have been recording massive volumes with charts dude, you are the one not paying attention, these are not rollovers,
I don't even think rollovers work like that, you don't get spikes on rollovers, the spikes in volumes recently and going back
to SI breaking to new highs end of 2010 are not spikes anymore, multiples of OI trading daily is not normal, never was,
this is what they used recently to crush longs, more trading daily than the total COT short positions has almost made the
most valuable chart meaningless. We documented these volumes with charts, on here, my thread especially. The " analysts "
should be saying more about the volumes , I am one of the first on here to point them out before Christmas as anomalies
and recently they became normal.