What hasn't gone down with the Silver Price and What has? OI and Deliverable Au

[wrs]

In this 30% silver price drop since a week ago today, OI in silver actually rose. That isn't capitulation, that is commercials pitching their longs at stupid prices to make it appear as though there were a big liquidation. Last Thursday the OI in silver was 128,402 contracts, yesterday it was 130,525.

On the other hand, COMEX silver stocks available for delivery have been shrinking since last Thursday and just yesterday, 20m oz of silver was removed from the SLV ETF inventory.

This is a mighty strange situation where the price drops, the inventory drops but the number of futures committed for delivery actually increases.

What this says to me is that the people who don't trust the CRIMEX with their silver are taking it away and the CRIMEX is making more promises go deliver silver that it cannot fulfill. Somebody smells default and is getting their silver out as quickly as possible.

[Heimdhal]

Silver is many things. Sure, comex doesnt have nearly the physical to cover demand if the call for delivery comes in en-mass.

But silver is still very tied to industrial usage, not just commodity exchanges.

Silver and gold are also incredibly controlled by...outside forces....


so take it all into consideration.

[MAGNES]

A couple of years ago on a guys built up blog, he was following crimex,
screaming default, that was maybe march 2009, forgot, the crimex
came up with and delivered if I remember right 40 million oz with crimex
inventories unaffected, for one month.

They are taking SI down and will use their own manufactured swings to flush everyone out.

These price drops are confirmation of no default short term for various reasons.

If we had inside info on default, next key month, the default would manifest itself July,
buy $50 Sept Calls.

WRS, what do you think of these volumes, at the end of which OI is the same ?


FOUND SITE
http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/category/silver-gold/vaporize-comex-countdown/

[wrs]

WRS, what do you think of these volumes, at the end of which OI is the same ?


That is a good question and one for which I don't have a good answer. I think it smacks of someone selling and buying from themselves in order to paint a false picture. I think that tomorrow when the COT comes out we will know what happened through Tuesday but we won't know for sure about yesterday and today.

One thing I can see is that there were 2133 contracts standing for delivery on first notice and only 136 of them have been delivered through the CRIMEX warehouses. The other 1000 have either been SLV shares or cash. I suspect they were SLV shares since we saw that 20m oz reduction in SLV inventory reported yesterday.

By the way, I checked out that site you linked and his chart for Mar 2009 shows 70moz of registered silver. Right now there is only 33moz, less than half that two years later. The key is for people to take delivery. That has been happening over time and the inventory levels in Ag at the CRIMEX are showing it.

[TheNocturnalEgyptian]

I can't find silver for $34. Anywhere.

[wrs]

I can't find silver for $34. Anywhere.

As Golmer Pyle used to say,

Well surprise, surprise, surprise!!!!!!!

[MAGNES]

WRS, what do you think of these volumes, at the end of which OI is the same ?


That is a good question and one for which I don't have a good answer. I think it smacks of someone selling and buying from themselves in order to paint a false picture. I think that tomorrow when the COT comes out we will know what happened through Tuesday but we won't know for sure about yesterday and today.

One thing I can see is that there were 2133 contracts standing for delivery on first notice and only 136 of them have been delivered through the CRIMEX warehouses. The other 1000 have either been SLV shares or cash. I suspect they were SLV shares since we saw that 20m oz reduction in SLV inventory reported yesterday.

By the way, I checked out that site you linked and his chart for Mar 2009 shows 70moz of registered silver. Right now there is only 33moz, less than half that two years later. The key is for people to take delivery. That has been happening over time and the inventory levels in Ag at the CRIMEX are showing it.


The cot chart with these daily volumes is almost rendered meaningless at this point,
that's coming from a guy that's been following it closely as the most important info,
it will only make my ears stand if they close out big like last week, they are holding
the bag but made it up big time, probably did that way back, they are probably long
making big money and it isn't registering, I was thinking using the market as vehicle
to transfer massive wealth illegally to individuals, cia, israel, rockefellers own personal
accounts overseas, what's to stop them, 200 K volume and OI is standing still ? WTF ?
One weeks trading just on comex in one day. I am not following overseas volumes.

I just gave an example of these default calls going way back.
It won't happen now again unless it is the real end.

[wrs]

This has been a really strong squeeze on silver and I think in gold too although it seems as though gold has seen a sizable reduction in OI of at least 15,000 contracts.

The CRIMEX is selectively defaulting by paying contracts in anything but real 5000oz good deliverable bars.

I think that tomorrow the COT is going to show that the Large Specs are longer silver and the Commercial Shorts have substantially increased their net short by being less long.

Keep in mind that JPM now has it's own warehouse that it can self-deal from and the non-registered inventory there has been growing. I don't know to what purpose but it is.

If all this price drop doesn't result in an OI decline, the large speculators will now pile in and buy as much as they can. It isn't going to take much buying volume to spike the price up unless the CRIMEX shorts are willing to expand OI substantially. Somehow it seems to me that they can't do that or they would have done it already.

Oh yes, I think that all of Asia is back to work today and if not today, then Monday for sure. This could turn around quickly, it might not but it certainly could.

That said, I sold all of my oil stocks over the last three weeks and booked 30% profits since last fall. Unfortunately I have been knife catching miners with some of the proceeds and so have negated some of that gain. However, I expect that to be reversed into very large gains in the next month or so.

[gunDriller]

how much do you guys think that the price drops are related to the "we (allegedly) killed Bin Laden/ America Ra Ra / US $ Ra Ra / US Military Strong (Ra Ra, Beat Chest / Military Strong, Dollar Strong" effect ?

OK, well that may not be entirely clear ;D

what i'm thinking happened was, there was some easing up on dollar tension because of the (alleged) killing of Bin Laden, and then the market manipulators got busy, about 8 PM Sunday night & all week long -

* paper sell orders
* margin requirements get tougher
* oil falls, silver falls.

the US $ is back up to 74+.


130,000 contracts = 650,000,000 ounces.

in other words, i'm thinking the market manipulators used the Bin Laden thing to whale away massively on the dollar, oil, silver, gold ... oil fell about 12%, gold a few percent, silver fell about 33%, the dollar rose - from 73 to 74 on the dollar index.

[Bigjon]

I can't find silver for $34. Anywhere.



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[Mouse]

I can't find silver for $34. Anywhere.



http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

90% Silver Coin Bags (Our Choice of Dimes Or Quarters) $1,000 Face Value

We Ship in 2 $500 Face Bags-Figured at 715 Ozs Per $1,000 Face

Over 75 Bags In Stock.

You Tube Video 90% Silver Coin Bags US $1000 Face Value Junk Silver
$1,000 Face Value Minimum
Buy @ Spot -$1.10

X 715

We Sell At Spot -20c

An Oz

( Spot Minus 20c X 715)

90% Silver Coin Bags 50¢ Half Dollars $1,000 Face Value

We Ship in 2 $500 Face Bags (Over 75 Bags In Stock)
$1,000 Face Value Minimum
Buy @ Spot -$1.05 Times 715

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An Oz

(Spot Minus 15c X 715)

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$1,000 Face Value Minimum
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That's what I look at too. If I want to guage premiums and availability - Tulving is the guy to watch out for rising premiums. Apmex and others are making bank on premium to smaller purchasers. That's their bag. Everything and anything is available or will be available within a week or so with very reasonable prem's at Tulving, I think except for pre 2011 SAE's are sold out. I don't know where we get these people screaming market disconnect. There's premiums involved but they are still very reasonable right now in spite of the "whatever" is going on.

If I wanted to get in on a smaller buy, though, it would be higher prem's. Tulving doesn't do business with people that don't do at least some volume.