Is this time different?

[bellevuebully]

This is the premise of the poll:

To determine how much significance this sell off in the paper market has on the realities of the physical market.


Rationale:

There has been a lot of discussion as to whether we will see long, drawn out, corrective action in the silver market as we have in the past after brutal sell-off's in the paper market. My position is that we will not. I base this on the fact that the phenomenon of physical buying has been a relatively recent development, and as such, puts the whole market structure in a much different position than when the big traders pushed around the market speculators without the backing of a strong demand for physical.

I think that using this demographic here at G-SUS, which to me represents a group naturally biased to the purchase of precious metals, we can get a picture of where we really are in the big picture of physical demand. In theory, if the majority here have only recently (relatively) started buying, the majority is only starting to wake up.



Hypothesis:

It is my suspicion that even here among those with an affinity to get away from paper investments, the majority really only started buying later (after '08) in this decade of increasing prices.


The conclusion I would draw from this, if correct, is that physical demand is in fact a relatively new dynamic which has never exerted a reckoning force on the paper market. Also, if this is true and we here represent those early to the dinner table, and yet the price in the paper market has been forced to almost $50 bucks, what does that say of the ability of the paper markets to have any negative effect on the price of physical silver being bought and sold going forward.

Thank in advance to anyone willing to participate.

[Bigjon]

I sold at the top of this market, but really didn't think we would see the big selloff that we got. I looked at buying puts and could have bought $40 puts for $5000, but i thought this time it's different we have big players driving this market and I would just be wasting my profits.

Wrong again, same shit, different day.

I guess I should clarify that I never trade my physical. I started buying at $3.85 a long time ago. I use futures to make cash to buy more.

[Large Sarge]

I gave up the trading thing, I just accumulate

Buy more on the dips.

I look back at those days of $8-$11 silver as "the good old days"

When silver breaks a $100 we will look back at this time the same way....

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

Hey this is cool BB

I First became interested / Realized there was a serious problem in '06- Bought my first silver in Spring of '07. Jumped in with both feet in '08. '09-December of 2010 really really bought the bulk of what I hold now. I've bought some during the runup Jan- Mar this year.

Boating accident last weekend. :-[

[bellevuebully]

Hey this is cool BB

I First became interested / Realized there was a serious problem in '06- Bought my first silver in Spring of '07. Jumped in with both feet in '08. '09-December of 10 really really bought the bulk of what I hold now. I've bought some during the runup Jan- Mar this year.

Boating accident last weekend.


Thanks for the feedback JJ. Comments like those you provided really help flesh out the perspective of the poll. There was a reason why I used the term 'serious buyer' and that was to reflect some accuracy to the situation.

I've been in with both feet from around '02. Both feet as in everything I had, plus some that I didn't, lol. Been that way ever since. My philosophy is don't pick a price point for selling. Wait for fundementals to change and have a plan on what to convert into. Haven't seen anything change yet....I'm holding and continuing to accumulate miners.jmo

Best wishes.

[mick silver]

i started buying before 03 but i went head on in 06.

[Shorty Harris]

Jumped in with both feet 26 Dec 2006. Been going ever since, & despite a couple sell ops. Still hold the majority.

[bellevuebully]

17 responses to poll. I'd say considering this is a gold-silver forum, this bull has a long way to charge, lol.

Bump for weekend.

[madfranks]

I "woke up" in '05 thanks to GE Griffin's book, The Creature from Jekyll Island. Then it all started clicking together, the fiat money vs precious metal coinage and I became serious in '06-07. While I was serious, I was young and in college, so I didn't have serious money to put into metals, and you'd all probably laugh if I told you how many oz I had. :o

[Ponce]

I can't vote because I started back in 1972 and as you all know made a killing in 80......started again in 82 till 02 when I had all that I needed or wanted ;D.........."If you build it, they will come" heeheheheheheheh.

[SilverMagnet]

I had physical prior to '03 as my family has always been coin collectors. However, I did not start going all in until my days at GIM1 being educated on the fallacies of the fiat system. I think around '06 is when I connected the dots and noticed that predictions made there were starting to come true. Been preparing for the storm ever since.


As stated in the Silver subforum, I believe this time is different. The Comex physical inventory is nearly depleted and with youtube, forums and the instant delivery of information by internet, it has finally awakened people to the banker schemes. So now with campaigns like Max Keiser's for example, the physical market has decoupled with the paper market which is why you see $5-7 over spot with delivery not eligible until next month.


The margin hikes ended up backfiring as people took the discount on physical and continue to do so as the price of paper vs physical continues to polarize.

[hoarder]

I got in full force in 2003-2004. Haven't bought since.

There are a lot of threads on PM forums this week calling for a bottom of 20 to 27. Most of the posters making these calls just got started and are hoping for a buying opportunity. Seldom do any of them differentiate between paper silver and physical silver in their analysis.

[1970 silver art]

I became interested in gold and silver in late 2006 when I heard about Ron Paul and was talking about the U.S. $ and gold and silver. There was a Podcast that I was listening to at the time called Free Talk Live and they were talking about Ron Paul and that got me more curious and I started reading about what he was saying about the U.S. gov't and the U.S. $. You could say that I woke up just enough to get interested in buying gold and silver but not full force. That eventually led me to finding and becoming a member on GIM1 (as OutlawJoseyWalesJr) on November 1, 2008.

In January 2007, I did make my first silver purchase but it was small because I was still learning. I continued to make small purchases of silver between 2007 and July 2008 from various places locally and online and just randomly buying silver without even looking at what was on it except that it said 1-oz .999 fine silver. I went to my first coin show in August 2007 to make small purchases of SAE's and other 1-oz. All of this was well before August 2008 when I completely changed as a PM buyer.

In August 2008 (August 30, 2008 to be exact), something happened to me at a North Georgia coin show and it made me into a different person. At that time I did not have much silver accumulated and I was looking to buy a few more oz's of brand name generic silver rounds. I was taking my time at this coin show and I was just looking around. When I came to a dealer table at this show, I found a 1-oz silver art bar that was very interesting and I took a closer look at it. At that point, I really loved it so I bought it for $17. I saw another one that I liked and bought that one for $17. August 30, 2008 was the day that changed my life in that I got seriously addicted to silver art bars and I became a silver art bar collector. I never looked back since that time since my love for silver art bars increased every year as I learned more about silver art bars.

I could write more on this but I won't. At the current time, I just concentrate most of my efforts (and FRN's) to finding and buying rare 1-oz '70's and '80's silver art bars on ebay and locally (if I can find them). I will occasionally buy some gov't minted 1-oz silver bullion but that is a rare occasion since my main goal is to add to my rare silver art bar collection.

In conclusion, I do not buy silver as in investment because I am not an investor. I do not trade (paper) silver because I am not a trader. I do not buy silver for SHTF prepping because I am not a SHTF prepper. I do watch the metals markets and I also like to read alternative media sites that talk about gold and silver and the $ but in the end, I am just a silver art bar collector and I treat this as a hobby and I enjoy it very much.

[Ponce]

And don't forget Silver Art that you started to collect rolls of tp when you read me........sorry the soon you will have to give up three of them ;D

[1970 silver art]

And don't forget Silver Art that you started to collect rolls of tp when you read me........sorry the soon you will have to give up three of them ;D


Yeah I have to admit that I was always fascinated with collecting rolls of tp when I read you. ;D Once I accepted your bet of 3 rolls of tp, then I told myself........"WOW!!!!!! This will be the easiest way for me to obtain tp". Even after I win 3 rolls of tp from you, I still have a long way to go to catch up with you on tp. Then I just realized something else and that is my priorities are different from yours.

My priorities are as follows:

1.) buying rare silver art bars

2.) buying rare silver art bars

3.) buying rare silver art bars

4.) buying rare silver art bars

5.) buying rare silver art bars

6.) buying rare silver art bars

7.) buying rare silver art bars

8.) buying rare silver art bars

9.) buying rare silver art bars

10.) buying tp.

As you can see, buying tp is way down on my list of priorities. :D Since buying tp is way down on my list of priorities, then you do not have to worry about me catching up with you in terms of rolls of tp. Your title of "TP King of the Internet" is safe. :D

[Son-of-Liberty]

For me it has been a long process.

Not sure exactly the date but back in about 2002 I remember hearing a show on a local radio station with some guy pimping gold and silver as a good investment. Then about 2005 I remember hearing the same show and I was thinking wow so far that guy was right maybe there is something to this. The guy was Harold Segal and he is still pimping precious metals and colored diamonds.

Anyway it got got me curious and after doing some research I found Kitco forums and from there to GIM. Made my first purchase, fairly significant one sept 05, silver was $6.16, gold 580ish I think. Been buying ever since. Sold some off last year for a business venture that didn't go so well, was hoping to buy back at reasonable levels but the price kept climbing. Been dollor cost averaging lately although with the dip I have accelerated the purchases a bit. I think when the silver market finally has it's day the only thing that is really going to matter is how many ounces you have. Don't try to be too smart just keep accumulating.

[bellevuebully]

For me it has been a long process.

Not sure exactly the date but back in about 2002 I remember hearing a show on a local radio station with some guy pimping gold and silver as a good investment. Then about 2005 I remember hearing the same show and I was thinking wow so far that guy was right maybe there is something to this. The guy was Harold Segal and he is still pimping precious metals and colored diamonds.

Anyway it got got me curious and after doing some research I found Kitco forums and from there to GIM. Made my first purchase, fairly significant one sept 05, silver was $6.16, gold 580ish I think. Been buying ever since. Sold some off last year for a business venture that didn't go so well, was hoping to buy back at reasonable levels but the price kept climbing. Been dollor cost averaging lately although with the dip I have accelerated the purchases a bit. I think when the silver market finally has it's day the only thing that is really going to matter is how many ounces you have. Don't try to be too smart just keep accumulating.


Thanks for that. Hahaha. HES Radio. Harold dropped the bug on me too. Then I started digging and came across the infamous Ted Butler commentaries (I think at that time a weekly feature by Investment Rarities), Jim Puplava, David Morgan, etc. Whew! Good times.

You know, Harold is still at it. I picked him up like 2 weeks ago on the radio. I was thinking, you know, this guy has given a lot of free info on the radio that has probably effected a lot of people's investment decisions for free. I'm sure he's gett'n a little out of it, but for the amount and quality of tangible info the guy has give, you gotta hand it to him. Good on ya H. I see now that he is quoting/referecing Turk, Sinclair. I heard on that broadcast a couple of weeks ago him say...'I can't listen to these guys call'n tops in the market....I never even heard them call the start of the bull market. Too true.

Anyhow, thanks for the history. Best wishes.

[Neuro]

Summer-Autumn 2007. However I did buy 1 (yes one) share of a Swedish gold miner, together with my grandfather in January 1980, the day before the peak in gold. It was the first share I ever bought. Interestingly it was the first share my granddad bought also. He was convinced by the headlines of the newspapers, how gold was going to the moon. The next day the share went up 20%, and granddad and I were thrilled having bought it at the right time. Next day it went down 10%, the day after that another 20%, etc.,etc... We sold it a few years after that and granddad gave me all the money, which was about what I had put in ( 1/3). Then in around 1989 I decided to invest some insurance money, that I got after becoming what the insurance company deemed 8% crippled (I broke the hip, and due to several medical mistakes I got necrosis of the hip, which gave me pain and limping, until last summer), I invested half the money in Gold options, as gold was climbing towards $360, and according to the newsletter of the company that where brokering these options, gold would quite easily go above $400 soon. It didn't, it went down to $300 instead and I lost everything I put in, about half of the insurance money, the other half I lost by buying a used Ford Escort... Damn bad car that one! ;)

Took a hiatus from PM investing after that. I bought some silver jewelry in India in 1995, which I thought was incredibly cheap. Was thinking of buying some silver around 2000 I remember I thought it was ridiculously cheap, but didn't know a place to buy it in Sweden... Got a couple of kids in 2000 and 2003, had some financial problems, we managed to sell our house for a good price late 2006, moved to Turkey 2007, started working here, slowly increasing, had spent all money almost by summer 2007, autumn 2007 I started getting increasing number of patients, and slowly I was able to buy silver and gold. By new year 2007 I had managed to buy approximately 200 ounces of silver granule (average price around 12.50) which I sold at 19.30, due to finding a bug out land, that I wanted, I thought I had missed the train when price went above 20 and 21. And then the PLUNGE! I bought some back in April May for around 16 and 17, but most I bought in the autumn, at around $10-13. Sold gold in the summer last year to go to India for hip surgery (still works very fine). Sold most of my silver granule recently for average price of 1/36.5 gold, and $46/ounce... I think it will go down to $21, and most probably I will be able to find silver granule at that price here, or a few dollars premium. Gold I don't think will go down to less than $1250... But expect a lot of volatility in the PM markets this summer!

So that's my story!

[solid]

My story is that even as a kid, I somehow knew about silver pre-64 coins. All my life, since I can remember, I would search my change and pull out the silver ones. I never gave it much thought, never researched silver/gold, etc. I just did that. Same with pennies, I saved them all and still do since I can remember. I had almost a full glass carboy full of pennies over the years. In 2008, when I woke up, I was on the beach injured and I went through that whole carboy and separated the copper ones from the zinc ones. Got a nice amount of copper, and several wheat pennies as well. Now I just save the copper ones.

About a month ago, going through storage, I came across a stash of old coins I had kept over the years. From all over the world. In that stash of coins, I found 1 US coin, a nickel...turns out that one nickel I had saved is a 1945 war nickel. How I knew to save that nickel...I'll never know and baffles me. I did not know about war nickels until recently after joining GIM and waking up.

I started actively buying gold and silver in late of 2008, right at the bottom, when silver was around $10 an ounce. I remember I bought some silver eagles from Apmex for $12.76 each. My first gold eagle was around $800. What a ride it's been since, the bulk of my buying was done in 2009.

I wish I could go back in time, imagine if I had been adding to the stack over the years, slowly stacking the whole time.

Anyway, that's my story.

[mamboni]

In the mid 1960s, I began collecting stamps and coins. Yearly increases in prices were de regeur and I didn't know the word inflation but the phenomenon was ingrained in me at an early age. At the age of 14 or 15 I discovered deodorants, girls and heavy petting; my interest in coins and stamps waned, a lot. Many have asked which is better, sex or silver, to which I respond "it depends!" It depends on how old you are. In 2005, well into the declining pecker years, I reverted to interest in silver and frequented an outworld blog called GIM, a festering cauldron of silver bugs, closet homos and government trolls. My stay there elicited a certain eleutherophobia on my part; such was the anarchic fervor that reigned. Unfortunately, GIM suffered from eventual ideologic kakistocracy and I found myself banned, ostensibly for somehow offending a flea. But memories of GIM's members' attempts to predict silver's price, like some modern form of kalling, linger. I gravitated to GIM as some sufferer of verbal parorexia - I couldn't get enough. My friends accused me of cacospectamania; obviously they had not been bitten by the silverbug. Banned from GIM, I qucikly sank into a deep melancholia, alone with my silver and a lingering propensity towards lexiphanicism. Eventually, I was rescued from oblivion and invited to join GSUS. The rest as they say, is history.

[Horn]

Lex`i`phan´i`cism (lĕks`ĭ`făn´ĭ`sĭz'm)
n. 1. The use of pretentious words, language, or style.

At least some things never change... ^-^

[mamboni]

Lex`i`phan´i`cism (lĕks`ĭ`făn´ĭ`sĭz'm)
n. 1. The use of pretentious words, language, or style.

At least some things never change... ^-^


Et tu Horn, et tu? A voidee! :boohoo ;D :boohoo

I could pointedly retort that if you don't love silver and don't work for the government then, well, you know who you are! ;D

[SLV^GLD]

My dad had been a silverbug in the 80's run up. He got into more as a pawn broker than anything. He has always been very good with money and apparently good at keeping friends who were not. He evidently would loan FRNs for people's silver and occasionally they would default and the silver was his. He never believed in metal as money, though. He did sell out in the run-up very similarly to Ponce, just dropped it all at just shy of $50/oz and never looked back.

Anyway, he informed me as a small child about the pre-'64 stuff which I saved as I found it. I also collected half-dollars cause I liked them. I remember he had a belt buckle with a Morgan Dollar in it and he explained to me it was silver and that it was worth a whole $4 instead of just $1 due to the metal. His explanation was more derisive, though. I remeber when I got my 1st bank account I deposited all my pre-'64 and half dollars thinking that the bank just kept your money in a little vault with your name on it and when you wanted to make a withdrawal you got the same physical pieces you put in back, like a full-service SDB. Boy was I sore when I decided I wanted to withdraw my coins to play with them again. hell, I'm still sore.

Fast-forward to 2008, about January. My MIL occasionalyl gives me things that belonged to my FIL who died long before I ever met him. Now all of this stuff I keep but still research the value of. I've received some very nice jewelry and knives that were his, for example. Well, in 01 of 08 I received a set of coins that FIL had collected. This was comprised of several wheat pennies, a couple handfuls of V-nickels and maybe a dozen half dollars and eisenhower dollars. In the process of researching these coins I discovered GIM and the idea that previous iterations of these coins had been silver and why they were no longer silver and decided right then and there that I would take these coins to a dealer and trade them in for silver coins.

And thus it began.

I was already a major anti-authoritarian, disillusioned with the LRP and angry at the world, wishing it could all be rewound to a pre-civil war period. I was also already a gun-nut having grown up in a gun cultured family. I always said we lost this country when we lost the civil war because we lost state sovereignty. When I found GIM I suddenly found a source of information that confirmed and expounded on what I already knew and explained how and why. It was my glass slipper. It was a paradigm shift in the sense that I ceased a consumptive lifestyle and started towards a sustainable and prepared state of mind and being to which I still strive.

All because of some old coins the MIL gave me one day.

[Horn]

me tre


A proof of trichotomy. Let w:x and y:z be any two ratios. We need to show that one of the three cases holds. We'll assume the ratios aren't the same and show one of them is greater than the other. When they're not the same, then there are numbers m and n such that

nw >=< mx but not ny >=< mz

http://aleph0.clarku.edu/~djoyce/java/elements/bookV/defV7.html


100 - 33.3, is not 66.6

If we can apply ratios for a second to past iterations, this is where you will find that the entire spoon is lost.

[Horn]

I could pointedly retort that if you don't love silver and don't work for the government then, well, you know who you are! ;D


You've become so well at predicting my strength in quoting, I processed a fake draw play in this instance.

Mark it as true empathy in your case... :D

[mamboni]

me tre


A proof of trichotomy. Let w:x and y:z be any two ratios. We need to show that one of the three cases holds. We'll assume the ratios aren't the same and show one of them is greater than the other. When they're not the same, then there are numbers m and n such that

nw >=< mx but not ny >=< mz

http://aleph0.clarku.edu/~djoyce/java/elements/bookV/defV7.html


100 - 33.3, is not 66.6

If we can apply ratios for a second to past iterations, this is where you will find that the entire spoon is lost.



Heresy this is sir! You could be sconed for this! ;)

[Horn]

BTW, I do love Silver, i just can't afford it even at these prices. ;)

And, this does not mean that I adhere to a third leg in downs policy, mamboni!!!

[mamboni]

BTW, I do love Silver, i just can't afford it even at these prices. ;)

And, this does not mean that I adhere to a third leg in downs policy, mamboni!!!


Tut tut sir, carry on then. And leave that soap where it is. :o ;D :o

[Ponce]

"To know and do nothing is worse than knowing nothing"... Ponce

I only learned the above when an enemy of mine told me "Money talks and bullshit walks", and I then pop him one.........ever sinse then I have been walking non stop and I let my action back up my words.

[Horn]

"To know and do nothing is worse than knowing nothing"... Ponce

I only learned the above when an enemy of mine told me "Money talks and Bullshit walks", and I then pop him one.........ever sinse then I have been walking non stop and I let my action back up my words.


Are you talking about walking 52 weeks when its at $32, as opposed to walking 0 when its at $49?

[mamboni]

"To know and do nothing is worse than knowing nothing"... Ponce

I only learned the above when an enemy of mine told me "Money talks and Bullshit walks", and I then pop him one.........ever sinse then I have been walking non stop and I let my action back up my words.


You Ponce, have delivered another verbal recumbentibus! ;D

[Horn]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgcxGFmYyPs&feature=related

[madfranks]

My friends accused me of cacospectamania;


I think you mis-spelled coprophagia. ??? ??? ??? :o


;D

[mamboni]

My friends accused me of cacospectamania;


I think you mis-spelled coprophagia. ??? ??? ??? :o


;D


Nope, I haven't had a turd sandwich in years.

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

GIM, a festering cauldron of silver bugs, closet homos and government trolls.


Sig material right there.

lol

[bellevuebully]

In the mid 1960s, I began collecting stamps and coins. Yearly increases in prices were de regeur and I didn't know the word inflation but the phenomenon was ingrained in me at an early age. At the age of 14 or 15 I discovered deodorants, girls and heavy petting; my interest in coins and stamps waned, a lot. Many have asked which is better, sex or silver, to which I respond "it depends!" It depends on how old you are. In 2005, well into the declining pecker years, I reverted to interest in silver and frequented an outworld blog called GIM, a festering cauldron of silver bugs, closet homos and government trolls. My stay there elicited a certain eleutherophobia on my part; such was the anarchic fervor that reigned. Unfortunately, GIM suffered from eventual ideologic kakistocracy and I found myself banned, ostensibly for somehow offending a flea. But memories of GIM's members' attempts to predict silver's price, like some modern form of kalling, linger. I gravitated to GIM as some sufferer of verbal parorexia - I couldn't get enough. My friends accused me of cacospectamania; obviously they had not been bitten by the silverbug. Banned from GIM, I qucikly sank into a deep melancholia, alone with my silver and a lingering propensity towards lexiphanicism. Eventually, I was rescued from oblivion and invited to join GSUS. The rest as they say, is history.


What about the hairdo round-eye?

[mamboni]

In the mid 1960s, I began collecting stamps and coins. Yearly increases in prices were de regeur and I didn't know the word inflation but the phenomenon was ingrained in me at an early age. At the age of 14 or 15 I discovered deodorants, girls and heavy petting; my interest in coins and stamps waned, a lot. Many have asked which is better, sex or silver, to which I respond "it depends!" It depends on how old you are. In 2005, well into the declining pecker years, I reverted to interest in silver and frequented an outworld blog called GIM, a festering cauldron of silver bugs, closet homos and government trolls. My stay there elicited a certain eleutherophobia on my part; such was the anarchic fervor that reigned. Unfortunately, GIM suffered from eventual ideologic kakistocracy and I found myself banned, ostensibly for somehow offending a flea. But memories of GIM's members' attempts to predict silver's price, like some modern form of kalling, linger. I gravitated to GIM as some sufferer of verbal parorexia - I couldn't get enough. My friends accused me of cacospectamania; obviously they had not been bitten by the silverbug. Banned from GIM, I qucikly sank into a deep melancholia, alone with my silver and a lingering propensity towards lexiphanicism. Eventually, I was rescued from oblivion and invited to join GSUS. The rest as they say, is history.


What about the hairdo round-eye?



It was my wife's idea - she's a little kinky. Hey Bully, take a walk on the wild side....and the colored girls go doo dodoo dodoo dodoo dodoo do dodoo dodoo dodoo dodoo

[mamboni]

GIM, a festering cauldron of silver bugs, closet homos and government trolls.


Sig material right there.

lol


Feel free with my blessings. Just don't tell Ponce. ;D

[Horn]

GIM, a festering cauldron of silver bugs, closet homos and government trolls.


Sig material right there.

lol


Feel free with my blessings. Just don't tell Ponce. ;D


Be careful, there were some here seen trolling over there for booty recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6tBgvjPczE