USD-JPY: let the crash begin

[mick silver]

http://profitimes.com/free-articles/usd-jpy-let-the-crash-begin ... Please notice that I posted this chart ONE week BEFORE the Tsunami occured.

I was wondering what could trigger the aggresive buying of JPY (or selling of the USD), and today I found the key…
REPATRIATION.
Let me explain.

Today I was watching some long term charts of the USD/JPY and found out that the move from 2005 until today was EXACTLY the same as the move from 1988 until 1995.
That made me wonder what caused the huge spike in 1995, when the JPY rallied 20% in just 3 months time.
Wikipedia and Google helped me a lot. Guess what happened on January 17th 1995? That’s right, Earthquake KOBE hit Japan.
What followed was a mass repatriation of Japanese yens invested overseas.

On March 11th 2011, Japan was hit by a very severe Earthquake again, which caused a Tsunami and meltdowns of nuclear reactor plants. The Japanese did what they did in 1995: they repatriated Yens, causing the Yen to drop from 84 towards 76.5 in one single day. The Japanese Central Bank intervened and sold Yens in order to stabalize the currency. At first it seemed to work, and the Yen strengthened towards 85.5, but right now, the Yen has come down to 80.25 again. The manipulation doesn’t seem to work anymore, and the USD/JPY is headed for a waterfall decline:


Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com

In the next chart, I compared both charts by laying one on top of the other:


Chart courtesy Prorealtime.com

Now THAT’s similar, isn’t it?

Get ready for a WATERFALL decline in the USD/JPY.

[mick silver]

more charts on link

[gunDriller]

is this a competition to see which currency can lose its value faster ?

[mick silver]

i would like magnes to look at theys charts . he know more about charts and he could tell us if they are the same as years as the guy said they were

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

wonder what this will do to the price of silver?


:-\

[Neuro]

I doubt it will happen this time. The 1995 earthquake was not nearly as disruptive to Japanese Industry, and Japans government didn't have a debt/GDP over 200%, there was no delay in the strengthening of the Yen in 1995, actually not this time either, it happened immediately, we are now waiting for the waterfall in the other direction. Japan will not be able to recover their industrial output, meanwhile the import for reconstruction material will sky rocket. Japan will be the first major industrial country to see hyperinflation, due to a plunging currency.

But I guess these fundamental reasons for the opposite to occur doesn't matter to a chartist!

[MAGNES]

i would like magnes to look at theys charts . he know more about charts and he could tell us if they are the same as years as the guy said they were


Japanese qualitative news is more important IMO, it will be measured, quantitative soon, profits $ down.

Okay, I'll try to make some points, I guess you saw me recently talking about the gold charts.
That was easy considering we are at a seasonal high period, strong uptrend, strong Resistance
of past 1400 getting broken clearly. It is just basic tech analysis which is real easy, basic
Resistance lines.

This is a lot harder, just looking at the chart, that is only one thing among many to consider.
That chart goes back 20 years. You are dealing with 2 main currencies/INDX's too, USDX mentioned.

Here is a day chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45632160053

There was a blow off top then a drop. A blow off top or bottom is good signal of the end of
a move up or down especially with volume confirming, then it came back, so now you are at
Resistance, 124, on it's own if it is broken, chances are it will go higher, it also meets a channel
top which is Resistance, usually when the top parallel line is broken or is being ridden, bollinger
bands work like that too, it tells you that you are topping and moving too fast. It's a currency
which move like snails comparatively.

We know they will repatriate money. That's more significant IMO.

How do you guys plan on playing this ?

I don't think USDX will get hit too hard in short term,
the indexes are messed, especially USD because everyone
is being inflated, so how do you measure inflation and less
buying power ?

I read some scary stuff on Japan, production is coming to a stand still,
and it will effect production anywhere Japan has partners, like parts
companies, assembly, USA is going to be effected big time and will
show up in companies statements starting this summer.

Some are predicting a massive crash starting this July.

It would take down gold and silver too if this happens.

[MAGNES]

I used to follow Ruppert long time ago, don't trust him anymore.
Lots of good stuff on his old site though going back 10 years almost.

JAPAN MUST WATCH
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0w07jJ397xs