PDA

View Full Version : What do You Think of Leap2020/GEAB Economic Prognosis for 2H 2011 ?



gunDriller
23rd May 2011, 03:39 PM
Basically, they're predicting Major Doom for the second half of 2011, recommended reading for all those who are Doom-ologically Inclined. ==>

... it's sort of like the Brooks Brothers version of Ruppert's "Even a Caveman could see it" video.

http://www.leap2020.eu/photo/art/default/2982364-4239114.jpg?v=1305586750

"GEAB N°55 is available! Global systemic crisis - Confirmation of a Major Alert for the second half of 2011 – Explosive fusion of world geopolitical dislocation and the global economic and financial crisis

Almost a year ago LEAP/E2020 identified the second half of 2011 as a new critical point in time in the development of the global systemic crisis. Just like our February 2008 anticipation highlighted a major shock affecting the US economy in September 2008, our team confirms in this GEAB issue that all the conditions have now been met for the second half of 2011 to be the stage for the explosive fusion of two fundamental trends underlying the global systemic crisis, namely world geopolitical dislocation on the one hand and the global economic and financial crisis on the other.

In fact, for several months the world has experienced an almost unbroken succession of geopolitical, economic and financial shocks which, according to LEAP/E2020, constitute the warning signs of a major traumatic event that we analyze in this issue.

At the same time the international system has now passed the stage of structural weakening to enter a phase of complete decay where old alliances are breaking down, whilst new communities of interest are emerging very quickly.

Finally, any hope for significant and lasting global economic recovery has now evaporated (1) whilst the Western pillar’s indebtedness, especially the US, has reached a critical level unparalleled in modern history (2).

http://www.leap2020.eu/photo/art/default/2982364-4239114.jpg?v=1305586750

Comparative progression of the United States and China’s share of world GNP (2001-2016) (in purchasing power parity) - Source: IMF / MarketWatch, 04/2011
The catalyst for this explosive fusion will obviously be the international monetary system, or rather international monetary chaos which has been further exacerbated since the disaster that struck Japan last March and in front of the inability of the United States to face the requirement for an immediate and significant reduction of its huge deficits.

The end of QE2, the symbol of and factor in the explosive fusion now underway, represents the end of an era, that where the "US Dollar was the currency of the United States and the rest of the world’s problem": from July 2011, the US Dollar will openly become the main threat weighing on the rest of the world and the United States’ crucial problem (3).

Summer 2011 will confirm that the US Federal Reserve has lost its bet: the U.S. economy has, in fact, never left the "Very Great Depression" (4) which it entered in 2008 despite the trillions of dollars injected (5), as the vast majority of Americans are perfectly aware of (6). Unable to launch a QE3 (even unofficially through its Primary Dealers as it used to do until the world became too closely interested in the US Treasury Bond market), the Fed will helplessly watch interest rates rise, US government deficit costs explode, the world dive into an intensified economic recession, stock exchange collapse and the US dollar show erratic behavior, making short-term saw-tooth movements, depending on the influence of these events, before suddenly losing 30% of its value as we anticipated in the last issue (7)."


It goes on and on, the next part is about home prices falling more.

It's sort of Yuppie-ish, nothing like the video of the guy bashing the computer with the baseball bat while he talks about the economy.

Anyway, most of us are observant of the Termite Rot in the US economy, culture & government.

Just curious what anyone might think of the GEAB analysis. GEAB/ Leap2020 is some European organization.