Calling the Top - April 30/May 1 Weekend - David Morgan Webcast, FSN Articles

[gunDriller]

Looking back at the rise in April, from $37.83 weekend close at the end of March, to $48+ the last weekend in April, I wonder - how did some of us miss seeing & calling the top ?

Because of our awareness about physical shortages & market manipulation, I think many of us thought the dramatic 4 week rise in April was "just the beginning", that it was on its way to $60.

On the other hand - those who "read the signs" - and sold that April 30 weekend in particular, must be feeling pretty good right now, even if they sold a little.

So the question is - for the people who "read the signs" - how did you know ?


Some reference material - a David Morgan webcast from April 22 -

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0422-1.mp3

April 29 FSN article by "Deepcaster" -
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/deepcaster/a-precious-opportunity-in-precious-metals

April 26 FSN article by Puru Saxena, whose money management abilities & ability to explain them, I really admire -
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/puru-saxena/silver-key-intra-day-reversal

April 29 FSN article by Justin Smyth -
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/justin-smyth/silver-runaway-move-correction-or-crash

April 28 FSN article by Jeb Handwerger -
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jeb-handwerger/parabolic-blowoff-in-silver-gold-price-steady

April 27 FSN article by Dominic Frisby
http://www.financialsense.com/node/5027


After the fact, David Morgan is claiming (I think) that he called the top -

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0520-1.mp3
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0513-1.mp3
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0506-1.mp3


Obviously, it's worth $$ to have known ahead of time that April 30 was "the top" - for 2Q 2011.

It makes me wonder if it's worth the $$ to subscribe to Morgan's report -
http://www.silver-investor.com/amember/signup.php

$270 a year.


Is there some kind of rule for silver, that any time it has a 4 week parabolic move up, that a correction will happen next ?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agapr11.gif


One other reference, Harvey Organ's April 24 to May 1 archives -
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_04_24_archive.html

[Neuro]

When the media cheerleaders, starts talking about a new paradigm, then it is time to sell. It will feel counterintuitive to sell into the euphoria, and it is very difficult to exactly pinpoint the top, if you are eithin 10% of the top you have done a very good job... I sold most of my silver granule stash between 36.90 and 46. I transfered into gold at an average of G/S ratio of 36, and what I sold at $46 I took in USD. I was going to buy into silver granule short term at $31, I missed that train, it bottomed out at $32. Now I think we will see silver go up towards $42-44, in a couple of weeks time, then a quick torpedo down to $26, rebound to $32, then down towards $21, around mid July, quick rebound to $26, range bound between 26-32 in August. Slow ascent to $40 in October November. Another attempt at $50 in late december. Probably a fail, a month later breakthrough and probably $100 late spring next year... Expect increased volatility!

[gunDriller]

i listened to King World News Weekly Metals Wrap, from April 30 -

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/30_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap_files/KWN%20Weekly%20Metals%20Wrap%204%3A30%3A2011.mp3

Dan Norcini talks about the short coverers possibly being done short-covering.

since it was the short-covering that drove a lot of the run-up, that they would be done short-covering is a possible sell signal.


ALSO - in the April 30 Harvey Organ presentation of the April 26 Commitment of Traders report, he notes that Commercial shorts have reduced their positions by "a massive amount" - his term for a reduction in short positions of about 10%.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011_04_24_archive.html

Commercial short positions = 78,297
Change in Commercial short positions = -8,438

So far that reduction in Commercial short positions is the only indicator I have found - in addition to the 4 weeks of very impressive price rises in April - to indicate that a price downturn was a higher probability event going into Monday May 2.