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sunshine05
3rd June 2011, 04:13 PM
I think what Peter Schiff has been saying for a while now is happening at a greater pace. The Chinese no longer want our debt.



China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills
Friday, June 03, 2011
By Terence P. Jeffrey


President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao of China toast during the State Dinner in State Dining Room of the White House, Jan. 19, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

(CNSNews.com) - China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011, the most recent month reported by the U.S. Treasury.

Treasury bills are securities that mature in one year or less that are sold by the U.S. Treasury Department to fund the nation’s debt.

Mainland Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bills are reported in column 9 of the Treasury report linked here.

Until October, the Chinese were generally making up for their decreasing holdings in Treasury bills by increasing their holdings of longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, until October, China’s overall holdings of U.S. debt continued to increase.

Since October, however, China has also started to divest from longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, as reported by the Treasury Department, China’s ownership of the U.S. national debt has decreased in each of the last five months on record, including November, December, January, February and March.

Prior to the fall of 2008, acccording to Treasury Department data, Chinese ownership of short-term Treasury bills was modest, standing at only $19.8 billion in August of that year. But when President George W. Bush signed legislation to authorize a $700-billion bailout of the U.S. financial industry in October 2008 and President Barack Obama signed a $787-billion economic stimulus law in February 2009, Chinese ownership of short-term U.S. Treasury bills skyrocketed.

By December 2008, China owned $165.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, according to the Treasury Department. By March 2009, Chinese Treasury bill holdings were at $191.1 billion. By May 2009, Chinese holdings of Treasury bills were peaking at $210.4 billion.

However, China’s overall appetite for U.S. debt increased over a longer span than did its appetite for short-term U.S. Treasury bills.

In August 2008, before the bank bailout and the stimulus law, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt stood at $573.7 billion. That number continued to escalate past May 2009-- when China started to reduce its holdings in short-term Treasury bills--and ultimately peaked at $1.1753 trillion last October.

As of March 2011, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt had decreased to 1.1449 trillion.

Most of the U.S. national debt is made up of publicly marketable securities sold by the Treasury Department and I.O.U.s called “intragovernmental” bonds that the Treasury has given to so-called government trust funds—such as the Social Security trust funds—when it has spent the trust funds’ money on other government expenses.

The publicly marketable segment of the national debt includes Treasury bills, which (as defined by the Treasury) mature in terms of one-year or less; Treasury notes, which mature in terms of 2 to 10 years; Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which mature in terms of 5, 10 and 30 years; and Treasury bonds, which mature in terms of 30 years.

At the end of August 2008, before the financial bailout and the stimulus, the publicly marketable segment of the U.S. national debt was 4.88 trillion. Of that, $2.56 trillion was in the intermediate-term Treasury notes, $1.22 trillion was in short-term Treasury bills, $582.8 billion was in long-term Treasury bonds, and $521.3 billion was in TIPS.

At the end of March 2011, by which time the Chinese had dropped their Treasury bill holdings 97 percent from their peak, the publicly marketable segment of the U.S. national debt had almost doubled from August 2008, hitting $9.11 trillion. Of that $9.11 trillion, $5.8 trillion was in intermediate-term Treasury notes, $1.7 trillion was in short-term Treasury bills; $931.5 billion was in long-term Treasury bonds, and $640.7 billion was in TIPS.

Before the end of March 2012, the Treasury must redeem all of the $1.7 trillion in Treasury bills that were extant as of March 2011 and find new or old buyers who will continue to invest in U.S. debt. But, for now, the Chinese at least do not appear to be bullish customers of short-term U.S. debt.

Treasury bills carry lower interest rates than longer-term Treasury notes and bonds, but the longer term notes and bonds are exposed to a greater risk of losing their value to inflation. To the degree that the $1.7 trillion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills extant as of March must be converted into longer-term U.S. Treasury securities, the U.S. government will be forced to pay a higher annual interest rate on the national debt.

As of the close of business on Thursday, the total U.S. debt was $14.34 trillion, according to the Daily Treasury Statement. Of that, approximately $9.74 trillion was debt held by the public and approximately $4.61 trillion was “intragovernmental” debt.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/china-has-divested-97-percent-its-holdin

osoab
3rd June 2011, 04:34 PM
Interesting that they have dumped the short end. I am guessing that they are pulling out of the game and realize that stated inflation is much less than the real rate of inflation. They should know, they fix their own numbers. :D

Ponce
3rd June 2011, 04:47 PM
As we all know by now by 2016 China will be the number one nation in the world.....and the US? danm if I know........we will be lucky if we are number six.

osoab
3rd June 2011, 04:53 PM
As we all know by now by 2016 China will be the number one nation in the world.....and the US? danm if I know........we will be lucky if we are number six.


Are you using their stuffed numbers Ponce? Who can really tell what is going on in China when it comes to their economic data?

Horn
3rd June 2011, 05:03 PM
As we all know by now by 2016 China will be the number one nation in the world.....and the US? danm if I know........we will be lucky if we are number six.


Are you using their stuffed numbers Ponce? Who can really tell what is going on in China when it comes to their economic data?


Do they really need one, an economy?

They could sit back & pretty much float on whats owed for the next five years.

osoab
3rd June 2011, 05:15 PM
As we all know by now by 2016 China will be the number one nation in the world.....and the US? danm if I know........we will be lucky if we are number six.


Are you using their stuffed numbers Ponce? Who can really tell what is going on in China when it comes to their economic data?


Do they really need one, an economy?

They could sit back & pretty much float on whats owed for the next five years.


They have a billion plus people to keep pacified. Some need more pacification than others. I don't think that sitting pretty would last as long as five years.

DMac
3rd June 2011, 05:16 PM
I think what Peter Schiff has been saying for a while now is happening at a greater pace. The Chinese no longer want our debt.



China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills
Friday, June 03, 2011
By Terence P. Jeffrey


President Barack Obama and President Hu Jintao of China toast during the State Dinner in State Dining Room of the White House, Jan. 19, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

(CNSNews.com) - China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011, the most recent month reported by the U.S. Treasury.

Treasury bills are securities that mature in one year or less that are sold by the U.S. Treasury Department to fund the nation’s debt.

Mainland Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bills are reported in column 9 of the Treasury report linked here.

Until October, the Chinese were generally making up for their decreasing holdings in Treasury bills by increasing their holdings of longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, until October, China’s overall holdings of U.S. debt continued to increase.

Since October, however, China has also started to divest from longer-term U.S. Treasury securities. Thus, as reported by the Treasury Department, China’s ownership of the U.S. national debt has decreased in each of the last five months on record, including November, December, January, February and March.

Prior to the fall of 2008, acccording to Treasury Department data, Chinese ownership of short-term Treasury bills was modest, standing at only $19.8 billion in August of that year. But when President George W. Bush signed legislation to authorize a $700-billion bailout of the U.S. financial industry in October 2008 and President Barack Obama signed a $787-billion economic stimulus law in February 2009, Chinese ownership of short-term U.S. Treasury bills skyrocketed.

By December 2008, China owned $165.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, according to the Treasury Department. By March 2009, Chinese Treasury bill holdings were at $191.1 billion. By May 2009, Chinese holdings of Treasury bills were peaking at $210.4 billion.

However, China’s overall appetite for U.S. debt increased over a longer span than did its appetite for short-term U.S. Treasury bills.

In August 2008, before the bank bailout and the stimulus law, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt stood at $573.7 billion. That number continued to escalate past May 2009-- when China started to reduce its holdings in short-term Treasury bills--and ultimately peaked at $1.1753 trillion last October.

As of March 2011, overall Chinese holdings of U.S. debt had decreased to 1.1449 trillion.

Most of the U.S. national debt is made up of publicly marketable securities sold by the Treasury Department and I.O.U.s called “intragovernmental” bonds that the Treasury has given to so-called government trust funds—such as the Social Security trust funds—when it has spent the trust funds’ money on other government expenses.

The publicly marketable segment of the national debt includes Treasury bills, which (as defined by the Treasury) mature in terms of one-year or less; Treasury notes, which mature in terms of 2 to 10 years; Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which mature in terms of 5, 10 and 30 years; and Treasury bonds, which mature in terms of 30 years.

At the end of August 2008, before the financial bailout and the stimulus, the publicly marketable segment of the U.S. national debt was 4.88 trillion. Of that, $2.56 trillion was in the intermediate-term Treasury notes, $1.22 trillion was in short-term Treasury bills, $582.8 billion was in long-term Treasury bonds, and $521.3 billion was in TIPS.

At the end of March 2011, by which time the Chinese had dropped their Treasury bill holdings 97 percent from their peak, the publicly marketable segment of the U.S. national debt had almost doubled from August 2008, hitting $9.11 trillion. Of that $9.11 trillion, $5.8 trillion was in intermediate-term Treasury notes, $1.7 trillion was in short-term Treasury bills; $931.5 billion was in long-term Treasury bonds, and $640.7 billion was in TIPS.

Before the end of March 2012, the Treasury must redeem all of the $1.7 trillion in Treasury bills that were extant as of March 2011 and find new or old buyers who will continue to invest in U.S. debt. But, for now, the Chinese at least do not appear to be bullish customers of short-term U.S. debt.

Treasury bills carry lower interest rates than longer-term Treasury notes and bonds, but the longer term notes and bonds are exposed to a greater risk of losing their value to inflation. To the degree that the $1.7 trillion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills extant as of March must be converted into longer-term U.S. Treasury securities, the U.S. government will be forced to pay a higher annual interest rate on the national debt.

As of the close of business on Thursday, the total U.S. debt was $14.34 trillion, according to the Daily Treasury Statement. Of that, approximately $9.74 trillion was debt held by the public and approximately $4.61 trillion was “intragovernmental” debt.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/china-has-divested-97-percent-its-holdin






Tyler D from Zerohedge responded to this article, claims it is a non-story:

LINK (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/attention-marxists-labors-share-national-income-drops-lowest-history#comment-1337886)

by Tyler Durden
on Fri, 06/03/2011 - 18:43
#1337886

Because this is complete non-news. First of all, as we pointed out a long time ago, China's T-Bill holdings fluctuate based (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/december-tic-data-china-treasury-agency-sell-continues-uk-buying-spree-relentless) on prevailing short term rates. Second, Bills account for less than 1% of total China bill/bond/note holdings and thus their notional is completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Third: TIC data is consistently wrong, and the bulk of China's marginal purchases (of both bonds and bills) occurs via the UK, and are only captured once a year with a 2 year lookback. In other words, only the June 2010 number is valid. Lastly, the linked article did the same error Bloomberg did by comparing apples and oranges, i.e., the post June 2010 and pre June 2010 time series.

Should we continue?

And yes, here is the chart we posted on this extremely irrelevant topic in February:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/von%20havenstein/China%20December_0.jpg

This is the only chart that is even modestly relevant (reported two weeks ago (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-treasury-holdings-decline-fifth-month-row-biggest-drop-november-2010)), and even it is probably completely wrong when UK holdings are accounted for.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/images/Chinese%20UST%20Holdings%20March_0.jpg

Horn
3rd June 2011, 05:19 PM
They have a billion plus people to keep pacified. Some need more pacification than others. I don't think that sitting pretty would last as long as five years.


Wait till you see them reinstate the buddhist meditation choice.

http://www.samuinavigator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/15988-225x300.jpg

gunDriller
3rd June 2011, 06:08 PM
As we all know by now by 2016 China will be the number one nation in the world.....and the US? danm if I know........we will be lucky if we are number six.


Are you using their stuffed numbers Ponce? Who can really tell what is going on in China when it comes to their economic data?


we have to rely on observation.

where does seemingly most of the manufacturing on Earth occur ?

before the US offshored manufacturing, wages for US workers were much higher, the manufacturing part of GNP was much bigger.

so even if we don't know the number, we see a huge amount of manufacturing activity.

someone has to make all the useless sh*t Americans buy. :sarc:

Ponce
3rd June 2011, 06:20 PM
As we all know by now by 2016 China will be the number one nation in the world.....and the US? danm if I know........we will be lucky if we are number six.


Are you using their stuffed numbers Ponce? Who can really tell what is going on in China when it comes to their economic data?


osoab? I don't have to look at what China is doing but as to what the US IS NOT DOING.....when I look at something I'd rather use the back door to trully see what is going on.

sunshine05
3rd June 2011, 07:23 PM
Thanks DMac. It's still a pretty big drop in short term bonds from '09-'11 (97%) even taking those other things into account. If this is the trend, longer term bonds may be next, right? We know they won't keep buying our debt forever.

Sparky
3rd June 2011, 09:21 PM
Thanks DMac. It's still a pretty big drop in short term bonds from '09-'11 (97%) even taking those other things into account. If this is the trend, longer term bonds may be next, right? We know they won't keep buying our debt forever.


If this was about dumping, they'd be letting go of the long bonds first, not the short term stuff.

madfranks
3rd June 2011, 11:14 PM
Thanks DMac. It's still a pretty big drop in short term bonds from '09-'11 (97%) even taking those other things into account. If this is the trend, longer term bonds may be next, right? We know they won't keep buying our debt forever.


If this was about dumping, they'd be letting go of the long bonds first, not the short term stuff.


Which means that they expect something to happen short term that would negatively affect their short term holdings. Maybe they are waiting for interest rates to climb after QE2 ends to buy back at higher interest yields. :dunno

Sparky
3rd June 2011, 11:54 PM
Thanks DMac. It's still a pretty big drop in short term bonds from '09-'11 (97%) even taking those other things into account. If this is the trend, longer term bonds may be next, right? We know they won't keep buying our debt forever.


If this was about dumping, they'd be letting go of the long bonds first, not the short term stuff.


Which means that they expect something to happen short term that would negatively affect their short term holdings. Maybe they are waiting for interest rates to climb after QE2 ends to buy back at higher interest yields. :dunno


That's what I was thinking...

Neuro
4th June 2011, 07:31 AM
Yes this isn't about dumping US debt. The total has practically remained the same since October last year, but it is a higher proportion of long term debt. Wasn't there something about China getting hard guarantees for holding US debt a while ago? Land deeds, roads and harbours etc...